Search results for: portfolio insurance
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 576

Search results for: portfolio insurance

126 Economic Policy Promoting Economically Rational Behavior of Start-Up Entrepreneurs in Georgia

Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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Introduction: The pandemic and the current economic crisis have created problems for entrepreneurship and, therefore for start-up entrepreneurs. The paper presents the challenges of start-up entrepreneurs in Georgia in the time of pandemic and the analysis of the state economic policy measures. Despite many problems, the study found that in 54.2% of start-ups surveyed under the pandemic, innovation opportunities were growing. It can be stated that the pandemic was a good opportunity to increase the innovative capacity of the enterprise. 52% of the surveyed start-up entrepreneurs managed to adapt to the current situation and increase the sale of their products/services through remote channels. As for the assessment of state support measures by start-up entrepreneurs, a large number of Georgian start-ups do not assess the measures implemented by the state positively. Methodology: The research process uses methods of analysis and synthesis, quantitative and qualitative, interview/survey, grouping, relative and average values, graphing, comparison, data analysis, and others. Main Findings: Studies have shown that for the start-up entrepreneurs, the main problem remains: inaccessible funding, workers' qualifications gap, inflation, taxes, regulation, political instability, inadequate provision of infrastructure, amount of taxes, and other factors. Conclusions: The state should take the following measures to support business start-ups: create an attractive environment for investment, availability of soft loans, creation of an insurance system, infrastructure development, increase the effectiveness of tax policy (simplicity of the tax system, clarity, optimal tax level ); promote export growth (develop strategy for opening up international markets, build up a broad marketing network, etc.).

Keywords: start-up entrepreneurs, startups, start-up entrepreneurs support programs, start-up entrepreneurs support economic policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
125 The Suitability of Agile Practices in Healthcare Industry with Regard to Healthcare Regulations

Authors: Mahmood Alsaadi, Alexei Lisitsa

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Nowadays, medical devices rely completely on software whether as whole software or as embedded software, therefore, the organization that develops medical device software can benefit from adopting agile practices. Using agile practices in healthcare software development industries would bring benefits such as producing a product of a high-quality with low cost and in short period. However, medical device software development companies faced challenges in adopting agile practices. These due to the gaps that exist between agile practices and the requirements of healthcare regulations such as documentation, traceability, and formality. This research paper will conduct a study to investigate the adoption rate of agile practice in medical device software development, and they will extract and outline the requirements of healthcare regulations such as Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), and Medical Device Directive (MDD) that affect directly or indirectly on software development life cycle. Moreover, this research paper will evaluate the suitability of using agile practices in healthcare industries by analyzing the most popular agile practices such as eXtream Programming (XP), Scrum, and Feature-Driven Development (FDD) from healthcare industry point of view and in comparison with the requirements of healthcare regulations. Finally, the authors propose an agile mixture model that consists of different practices from different agile methods. As result, the adoption rate of agile practices in healthcare industries still low and agile practices should enhance with regard to requirements of the healthcare regulations in order to be used in healthcare software development organizations. Therefore, the proposed agile mixture model may assist in minimizing the gaps existing between healthcare regulations and agile practices and increase the adoption rate in the healthcare industry. As this research paper part of the ongoing project, an evaluation of agile mixture model will be conducted in the near future.

Keywords: adoption of agile, agile gaps, agile mixture model, agile practices, healthcare regulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
124 Assessing Economic Losses Of 2104 Flood Disaster: A Case Study on Dabong, Kelantan, Malaysia

Authors: Ahmad Hamidi Mohamed, Jamaluddin Othman, Mashitah Suid, Mohd Zaim Mohd Shukri

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Floods are considered an annual natural disaster in Kelantan. However, the record-setting flood of 2014 was a 'tsunami-like disaster'. A study has been conducted with the objectives to assess the economic impact of the flood to the resident of Dabong area in Kelantan Darul Naim, Malaysia. This area was selected due to the severity during the flood. The impacts of flood on local people were done by conducting structured interviews with the use of questionnaires. The questionnaire was intended to acquire information on losses faced by Dabong residence. Questionnaires covered various areas of inconveniences suffered with respect to health effects, including illnesses suffered, their intensities, duration and their associated costs. Loss of productivity and quality of life was also assessed. Inquiries were made to Government agencies to obtain relevant statistical data regarding the loss due to the flood tragedy. The data collected by giving formal request to the governmental agencies and formal meetings were done. From the study a staggering amount of losses were calculated. This figure comes from losses of property, Farmers/Agriculture, Traders/Business, Health, Insurance and Governmental losses. Flood brings hardship to the people of Dabong and these losses of home will cause inconveniences to the society. The huge amount of economic loss extracted from this study shows that federal and state government of Kelantan need to find out the cause of the major flood in 2014. Fast and effective measures have to be planned and implemented in flood prone area to prevent same tragedy happens in the future.

Keywords: economic impact, flood tragedy, Malaysia, property losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
123 A Framework for Auditing Multilevel Models Using Explainability Methods

Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
122 Risks in the Islamic Banking Model and Methods Adopted to Manage Them

Authors: K. P. Fasalu Rahman

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The financial services industry of Islam include large number of institutions, such as investment banks and commercial banks, investment companies and mutual insurance companies. All types of these financial institutions should have to deal with many issues and risks in their field of work. Islamic banks should expect to face two types of risks: risks that are similar to those faced by conventional financial intermediaries and risks that are unique to the Islamic Banks due to their compliance with the Shariah. The use of financial services and products that comply with the Shariah principles cause special issues for supervision and risk management. Risks are uncertain future events that could influence the achievement of the bank’s objectives, including strategic, operational, financial and compliance objectives. In Islamic banks, effective risk management deserves special attention. As an operational problem, risk management is the classification and identification of methods, processes, and risks in banks to supervise, monitor and measure them. In comparison to conventional banks, Islamic banks face big difficulties in identifying and managing risks due to bigger complexities emerging from the profit loss sharing (PLS) concept and nature of particular risks of Islamic financing. As the developing of managing risks tool becomes very essential, especially in Islamic banking as most of the products are depending on PLS principle, identifying and measuring each type of risk is highly important and critical in any Islamic finance based systems. This paper highlights the special and general risks surrounding Islamic banking. And it investigates in detail the need for risk management in Islamic banks. In addition to analyzing the effectiveness of risk management strategies adopted by Islamic financial institutions at present, this research is also suggesting strategies for improving risk management process of Islamic banks in future.

Keywords: Islamic banking, management, risk, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
121 Effects of Macroprudential Policies on BankLending and Risks

Authors: Stefanie Behncke

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This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

Procedia PDF Downloads 344
120 Risk of Androgen Deprivation Therapy-Induced Metabolic Syndrome-Related Complications for Prostate Cancer in Taiwan

Authors: Olivia Rachel Hwang, Yu-Hsuan Joni Shao

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Androgen Deprivation Therapy (ADT) has been a primary treatment for patients with advanced prostate cancer. However, it is associated with numerous adverse effects related to Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), including hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidaemia, heart diseases and ischemic strokes. However, complications associated with ADT for prostate cancer in Taiwan is not well documented. The purpose of this study is to utilize the data from NHIRD (National Health Insurance Research Database) to examine the trajectory changes of MetS-related complications in men receiving ADT. The risks of developing complications after the treatment were analyzed with multivariate Cox regression model. Covariates including in the model were the complications before the diagnosis of prostate cancer, the age, and the year at cancer diagnosis. A total number of 17268 patients from 1997-2013 were included in this study. The exclusion criteria were patients with any other types of cancer or with the existing MetS-related complications. Changes in MetS-related complications were observed among two treatment groups: 1) ADT (n=9042), and 2) non-ADT (n=8226). The ADT group appeared to have an increased risk in hypertension (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.13, P = 0.001) and hyperlipidemia (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.17, P = 0.02) when compared with non-ADT group in the multivariate Cox regression analyses. In the risk of diabetes, heart diseases, and ischemic strokes, ADT group appeared to have an increased but not significant hazard ratio. In conclusion, ADT was associated with an increased risk in hypertension and hyperlipidemia in prostate cancer patients in Taiwan. The risk of hypertension and hyperlipidemia should be considered while deciding on ADT, especially those with the known history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia.

Keywords: androgen deprivation therapy, ADT, complications, metabolic syndrome, MetS, prostate cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 271
119 Conceptual Understanding for the Adoption of Energy Assessment Methods in the United Arab Emirates Built Environment

Authors: Amna I. Shibeika, Batoul Y. Hittini, Tasneem B. Abd Bakri

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Regulation and integration of public policy, economy, insurance industry, education, and construction stakeholders are the main contributors to achieve sustainable development. Building environmental assessment methods were introduced in the field to address issues such as global warming and conservation of natural resources. In the UAE, Estidama framework with its associated Pearl Building Rating System (PBRS) has been introduced in 2010 to address and spread sustainability practices within the country’s fast-growing built environment. Based on literature review of relevant studies investigating different project characteristics that influence sustainability outcomes, this paper presents a conceptual framework for understanding the adoption of PBRS in UAE projects. The framework also draws on Diffusion of Innovations theory to address the questions of how the assessment method is chosen in the first place and what is the impact of PBRS on the multi-disciplinary design and construction processes. The study highlights the mandatory nature of the adoption of PBRS for government buildings as well as imbedding Estidama principles within Abu Dhabi building codes as key factors for raising awareness about sustainable practices. Moreover, several project-related elements are addressed to understand their relationship with the adoption process, including project team collaboration; communication and coordination; levels of commitment and engagement; and the involvement of key actors as sustainability champions. This conceptualization of the adoption of PBRS in UAE projects contributes to the growing literature on the adoption of energy assessment tools and addresses the UAE vision is to be at the forefront of innovative sustainable development by 2021.

Keywords: adoption, building assessment, design management, innovation, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
118 The Opportunities and Challenges of Adopting International Financial Reporting Standards in Saudi Capital Market

Authors: Abdullah Almulhim

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The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) was established in 2001 to develop International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) that bring transparency, accountability, and efficiency to financial markets around the world. In addition, the IFRS provide a unified accounting language, which is especially important in the era of globalization. However, the establishment of a single set of high-quality international accounting standards is a matter of growing importance, as participants in the increasingly integrated world capital market demand comparability and transparency of financial reporting worldwide. Saudi Arabia became the 149th member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 11 December 2005, which has increased the need to convert to IFRS. Currently, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) requires banks and insurance companies in Saudi Arabia to report under IFRS Standards. However, until the end of 2016, SOCPA standards were applied to all other companies, listed and unlisted. From 2017, listed Saudi companies would be required to report under IFRS Standards as adopted by SOCPA effective 2017. This paper is to investigate the expected benefits gained and highlight the challenges faced by adopting IFRS by the listed companies in the Saudi Stock Exchange. Questionnaires were used as the main method of data collection. They were distributed to listed companies in the Saudi Capital Market. Data obtained through the questionnaires have been imported into SPSS statistical software for analysis. The expected results of this study will show the benefits of adopting IFRS by Saudi Listed Companies. However, this study will investigate the challenges faced by adopting IFRS by the listed companies in the Saudi Arabian Stock Market. Findings will be discussed later upon completion of initial analysis.

Keywords: challenges, IAS, IFRS, opportunities, Saudi, SOCPA

Procedia PDF Downloads 231
117 The Effect of a New Reimbursement Policy for Discharge Planning Service

Authors: Chueh Chi-An, Chan Hui-Ya

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Background and Aim: National Health Insurance (NHI) Administration released a new reimbursement policy for hospital patients who received a superior discharge plan on April 1, 2016. Each case could be claimed 1,500 points for fee-of service with related documents. The policy is considered a solution to help reducing the crowding in the emergency department, the length of stay of hospital, unplanned readmission rate and unplanned ER visit. This study aim is to explore the effect of the new reimbursement policy for discharge planning service in a medical center. Methods: The discharge team explained to general wards the new policy and encouraged early assessment, communication and connecting to community care for patients. They stated the benefit from the policy and asked documenting for reimbursement claiming from April to May 2016. The imbursement fee of NHI declaration from June 2015 to October 2017 was collected. The indicators included hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction were analyzed after the policy implemented. Results: The results showed that the amount of service declaration was increasing from 2 cases in February 2016 to 110 cases in October 2017, the application rate was increasing from 0.029% to 1.576% of all inpatient cases, and the average payment from NHI was around 148,500 NT dollars per month in 2017. There are no significant differences in the indicators among hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction. Conclusion: To provide a good discharge plan require a specialized case manager, the new reimbursement policy is too complicated and the total fee-of-service hospital could claim is too limited to hiring one. The results suggest more strategies combine with the new reimbursement policy will be needed.

Keywords: discharge planning, reimbursement, unplanned ER visit, readmission rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
116 Spatial Suitability Assessment of Onshore Wind Systems Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Authors: Ayat-Allah Bouramdane

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Since 2010, there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of onshore wind energy and large increases in its deployment, varying widely across regions. In fact, the onshore wind production is affected by air density— because cold air is more dense and therefore more effective at producing wind power— and by wind speed—as wind turbines cannot operate in very low or extreme stormy winds. The wind speed is essentially affected by the surface friction or the roughness and other topographic features of the land, which slow down winds significantly over the continent. Hence, the identification of the most appropriate locations of onshore wind systems is crucial to maximize their energy output and therefore minimize their Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). This study focuses on the preliminary assessment of onshore wind energy potential, in several areas in Morocco with a particular focus on the Dakhla city, by analyzing the diurnal and seasonal variability of wind speed for different hub heights, the frequency distribution of wind speed, the wind rose and the wind performance indicators such as wind power density, capacity factor, and LCOE. In addition to climate criterion, other criteria (i.e., topography, location, environment) were selected fromGeographic Referenced Information (GRI), reflecting different considerations. The impact of each criterion on the suitability map of onshore wind farms was identified using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We find that the majority of suitable zones are located along the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. We discuss the sensitivity of the onshore wind site suitability to different aspects such as the methodology—by comparing the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-AHP results to the Mean-Variance Portfolio optimization framework—and the potential impact of climate change on this suitability map, and provide the final recommendations to the Moroccan energy strategy by analyzing if the actual Morocco's onshore wind installations are located within areas deemed suitable. This analysis may serve as a decision-making framework for cost-effective investment in onshore wind power in Morocco and to shape the future sustainable development of the Dakhla city.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process (ahp), dakhla, geographic referenced information, morocco, multi-criteria decision-making, onshore wind, site suitability.

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
115 Structural Inequality and Precarious Workforce: The Role of Labor Laws in Destabilizing the Labor Force in Iran

Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Over the last three decades, the main demands of the Iranian workforce have been focused on three areas: "The right to a decent wage", "The right to organize" and "The right to job security". In order to investigate and analyze this situation, the present study focuses on the component of job security. The purpose of the study is to figure out what mechanisms in Iran's Labor Law have led to the destabilization and undermining of workers' job security. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws related to labor rights in Iran and, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. In the data analysis stage, the qualitative content analysis method was also used. The trend analysis of the statistics related to the labor force situation in Iran in the last three decades shows that the employment structure has been facing an increase in the active population, but in the last decade, a large part of this population has been mainly active in the service sector, and contract-free enterprises, so a smaller share of this employment has insurance coverage and a larger share has underemployment. In this regard, the results of this study show that four contexts have been proposed as the main legal and executive mechanisms of labor instability in Iran, which are: 1) temporaryization of the labor force by providing different interpretations of labor law, 2) adjustment labor in the public sector and the emergence of manpower contracting companies, 3) the cessation of labor law protection of workers in small workshops and 4) the existence of numerous restrictions on the effective organization of workers. The theoretical conclusion of this article is that the main root of the challenges of the labor society and the destabilized workforce in Iran is the existence of structural inequalities in the field of labor security, whose traces can be seen in the legal provisions and executive regulations of this field.

Keywords: inequality, precariat, temporaryization, labor force, labor law

Procedia PDF Downloads 39
114 High-Resolution Flood Hazard Mapping Using Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model Anuga: Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
113 Vocational Rehabilitation for People with Disabilities: Employment Rates, Job Persistence and Wages

Authors: Hester Fass, Ofir Pinto

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Research indicates gaps in education, employment rates and wages between people with disabilities and those without disabilities. One of the main tools available to reduce these gaps is vocational rehabilitation. In order to examine the effects of vocational rehabilitation, a follow-up study, based on comprehensive administrative data, was conducted. The study included 88,286 people with disabilities who participated in vocational rehabilitation of the National Insurance Institute of Israel (NII), and completed the process between 1999 and 2012. Research variables included: employment rates, job persistence and wage levels. This research, the first of its kind in Israel, has several unique aspects: a)a long-range follow-up study on people who completed vocational rehabilitation; b) examination of a broad population spectrum, including also people that are not eligible to disability pensions ; c) a comparison among those with work-related injuries, those injured in hostile acts and those injured in other circumstances; and finally d) the identification of the characteristics of those who are entitled to vocational rehabilitation but who do not participate in any vocational rehabilitation plan. The most notable results include: 1. Vocational rehabilitation contributed to employment, job persistence and wage levels. Participation in vocational rehabilitation resulted in an employment rate of 65% within two years after completing the program, and 73% eventually. Participation in a vocational rehabilitation plan also contributed to job persistence and wage levels. 2. Vocational rehabilitation plans aimed at integration in universal frameworks increased the chances of being employed, persisting at the job and receiving a higher wage than did the vocational rehabilitation aimed at selective frameworks (such as sheltered workshops). 3. The type of disability affected the chances of integration in a vocational rehabilitation plan and in the labor market. People with a disability from birth had greater chances of integration in a vocational rehabilitation plan, while the type of disability and its severity affected the chances of the person with disabilities to find employment.

Keywords: vocational rehabilitation, employment, job persistence, wages

Procedia PDF Downloads 437
112 Human-Elephant Conflict and Mitigation Measures in Buffer Zone of Bardia National Park, Nepal

Authors: Rabin Paudel, Dambar Bahadur Mahato, Prabin Poudel, Bijaya Neupane, Sakar Jha

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Understanding Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) is very important in countries like Nepal, where solutions to escalating conflicts are urgently required. However, most of the HEC mitigation measures implemented so far have been done on an ad hoc basis without the detailed understanding of nature and extent of the damage. This study aims to assess the current scenario of HEC in regards to crop and property damages by Wild Asian Elephant and people’s perception towards existing mitigating measures and elephant conservation in Buffer zone area of Bardia National Park. The methods used were a questionnaire survey (N= 178), key-informant interview (N= 18) and focal group discussions (N= 6). Descriptive statistics were used to determine the nature and extent of damage and to understand people’s perception towards HEC, its mitigation measures and elephant conservation. Chi-square test was applied to determine the significance of crop and property damages with respect to distance from the park boundary. Out of all types of damage, crop damage was found to be the highest (51%), followed by house damage (31%) and damage to stored grains (18%) with winter being the season with the greatest elephant damage. Among 178 respondents, the majority of them (82%) were positive towards elephant conservation despite the increment in HEC incidents as perceived by 88% of total respondents. Among the mitigation measures present, the most applied was electric fence (91%) followed by barbed wire fence (5%), reinforced concrete cement wall (3%) and gabion wall (1%). Most effective mitigation measures were reinforced concrete cement wall and gabion wall. To combat increasing crop damage, the insurance policy should be initiated. The efficiency of the mitigation measures should be timely monitored, and corrective measures should be applied as per the need.

Keywords: crop and property damage, elephant conflict, Asiatic wild elephant, mitigation measures

Procedia PDF Downloads 137
111 Graphical Theoretical Construction of Discrete time Share Price Paths from Matroid

Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

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The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
110 The Types of Annuities with Flexible Premium

Authors: Deniz Ünal Özpalamutcu, Burcu Altman

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Actuaria uses mathematics, statistic and financial information when analyzing the financial impacts of uncertainties, risks, insurance and pension related issues. In other words, it deals with the likelihood of potential risks, their financial impacts and especially the financial measures. Handling these measures require some long-term payment and investments. So, it is obvious it is inevitable to plan the periodic payments with equal time intervals considering also the changing value of money over time. These series of payment made specific intervals of time is called annuity or rant. In literature, rants are classified based on start and end dates, start times, payments times, payments amount or frequency. Classification of rants based on payment amounts changes based on the constant, descending or ascending payment methods. The literature about handling the annuity is very limited. Yet in a daily life, especially in today’s world where the economic issues gained a prominence, it is very crucial to use the variable annuity method in line with the demands of the customers. In this study, the types of annuities with flexible payment are discussed. In other words, we focus on calculating payment amount of a period by adding a certain percentage of previous period payment was studied. While studying this problem, formulas were created considering both start and end period payments for cash value and accumulated. Also increase of each period payment by r interest rate each period payments calculated with previous periods increases. And the problem of annuities (rants) of which each period payment increased with previous periods’ increase by r interest rate has been analyzed. Cash value and accumulated value calculation of this problem were studied separately based on the period start/end and their relations were expressed by formulas.

Keywords: actuaria, annuity, flexible payment, rant

Procedia PDF Downloads 198
109 Economic Important of Manta Ray Watching Tourism in Dampier Strait, Raja Ampat, West Papua, Indonesia

Authors: Maulita Sari Hani, Abraham B. Sianipar, Jamaluddin Jompa, Natsir Nessa, Alan T. White

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Manta ray is an icon for tourism in Raja Ampat. The tourist volume has been increased for the past ten years which up to approximately 23,000 tourists in 2017. Since 2013, Conservation International Indonesia deployed satellite and acoustic tags on manta ray in Dampier strait to track the species and identify the aggregation areas. These findings encourage the government and the local community to boost conservation through the management of marine protected areas for tourism purposes. Community in Dampier strait including the village of Arborek, Kurkapa, Kapisawar, and Sawingray involved in variety of small scale tourism business including homestay, dive shop, tour operator, and crafts. Working groups of related local businesses were established to support the local community and to ensure the sustainability of the economic viability and environmental sustainability. In order to analyze the economic benefits of manta ray tourism, this study was conducted to identify the number of local business in Dampier Strait and the economic impacts in terms of local finance security, social, humanity, individual, and physical assets. The results of this study identify 30 homestays, 2 dive shops, 10 tour operators, 30 women involved in crafts, and about 50 villagers worked for dive resorts. In addition to community assets, we confirmed the welfare of community has been improved in terms of food security, households, education for children, savings, and health insurance.

Keywords: marine wildlife tourism, elasmobranch, conservation, ecotourism, co-management, economic viability, environmental sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 193
108 Health Literacy and Knowledge Related to Tuberculosis among Outpatients at a Referral Hospital in Lima, Peru

Authors: Rosalina Penaloza, Joanna Navarro, Pauline Jolly, Anna Junkins, Carlos Seas, Larissa Otero

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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) case detection in Peru relies on passive case finding. This strategy relies on the assumption that the community is aware that a persistent cough is a possible symptom of TB and that formal health care needs to be sought. Despite its importance, health knowledge specific to TB is underexplored in Peru. This study aimed to assess health literacy and level of TB knowledge among outpatients attending a referral hospital in Lima, Peru. The goal was to ascertain knowledge gaps in key areas relating to TB, to identify and prioritize subgroups for intervention, and to provide insight for policy and community interventions considering health literacy. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was conducted using a survey to measure sociodemographic factors, tuberculosis knowledge, and health literacy. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to study the associations between variables and to account for potential confounders. The study was conducted at Hospital Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru from June – August 2017. Results: 272 participants were included in the analysis. 57.7% knew someone who had had TB before, 9% had had TB in the past. Two weeks a cough was correctly identified as a symptom that could be TB by 69.1%. High TB knowledge was found among 149 (54.8%) participants. High health literacy was found among 193 (71.0%) participants. Health literacy and TB knowledge were not significantly associated (OR 0.9 (95%CI 0.5-1.5)). After controlling for sex, age, district, education, health insurance, frequency of hospital visits and previous TB diagnosis: High TB knowledge was associated with knowing someone with TB (aOR 2.7 (95%CI 1.6-4.7)) and being a public transport driver, (aOR 0.2 (95%CI 0.05-0.9)). Not being poor was the single factor associated with high health literacy (aOR 3.8 (95%CI 1.6-8.9)). Conclusions: TB knowledge was fair, though 30% did not know the most important symptom of TB. Tailoring educational strategies to risk groups may enhance passive case detection especially amongst transport workers in Lima, Peru.

Keywords: health literacy, Peru, tuberculosis, tuberculosis knowledge

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107 “Towards Creating a Safe Future”: An Assessment of the Causes of Flooding in Nsanje District, Lower Shire Malawi

Authors: Davie Hope Moyo

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The environment is a combination of two things: resources and hazards. One of the hazards that is a result of environmental changes is the occurrence of flooding. Floods are one of the disasters that are highly feared by people because they have a huge impact on the human population and their environment. In recent years, flooding disasters in the Nsanje district are increasing in both frequency and magnitude. This study aims to understand the root causes of this phenomenon. To understand the causes of flooding, this study focused on the case of TA Ndamera in the Nsanje district, southern Malawi. People in the Nsanje district face disruption in their day-to-day life because of floods that affect their communities. When floods happen, people lose their property, land, livestock, and even lives. The study was carried out in order to have a better understanding of the root causes of floods. The findings of this study may help the government and other development agencies to put in place mitigation measures that will make Nsanje District resilient to the occurrence of future flood hazards. Data was collected from the area of TA Ndamera in order to assess the causes of flooding in the district. Interviews, transect walks, and researcher observation was done to appreciate the topography of the district and evaluate other factors that are making the people become vulnerable to the impacts of flooding in the district. It was found that flooding in the district is mainly caused by heavy rainfall in the upper shire, settlements along river banks, deforestation, and the topography of the district in general. The research study ends by providing recommendation strategies that need to be put in place to increase the resilience of the communities to future flood hazards. The research recommends the development of indigenous knowledge systems to alert people of incoming floods, construction of evacuation centers to ease pressure on schools, savings, and insurance schemes, construction of dykes, desilting rivers, and afforestation.

Keywords: disaster causes, mitigation, safety measures, Nsanje Malawi

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106 The Role Previous Cytomegalovirus Infection in Subsequent Lymphoma Develompment

Authors: Amalia Ardeljan, Lexi Frankel, Divesh Manjani, Gabriela Santizo, Maximillian Guerra, Omar Rashid

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Introduction: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is a widespread infection affecting between 60-70% of people in industrialized countries. CMV has been previously correlated with a higher incidence of Hodgkin Lymphoma compared to noninfected persons. Research regarding prior CMV infection and subsequent lymphoma development is still controversial. With limited evidence, further research is needed in order to understand the relationship between previous CMV infection and subsequent lymphoma development. This study assessed the effect of CMV infection and the incidence of lymphoma afterward. Methods: A retrospective cohort study (2010-2019) was conducted through a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database and conducted using International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9th,10th codes, and Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. These were used to identify lymphoma diagnosis in a previously CMV infected population. Patients were matched for age range and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). A chi-squared test was used to assess statistical significance. Results: A total number of 14,303 patients was obtained in the CMV infected group as well as in the control population (matched by age range and CCI score). Subsequent lymphoma development was seen at a rate of 11.44% (1,637) in the CMV group and 5.74% (822) in the control group, respectively. The difference was statistically significant by p= 2.2x10-16, odds ratio = 2.696 (95% CI 2.483- 2.927). In an attempt to stratify the population by antiviral medication exposure, the outcomes were limited by the decreased number of members exposed to antiviral medication in the control population. Conclusion: This study shows a statistically significant correlation between prior CMV infection and an increased incidence of lymphoma afterward. Further exploration is needed to identify the potential carcinogenic mechanism of CMV and whether the results are attributed to a confounding bias.

Keywords: cytomegalovirus, lymphoma, cancer, microbiology

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105 SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Risk Factors among Patients from a Metropolitan Community Health Center, Puerto Rico, July 2020 to March 2022

Authors: Juan C. Reyes, Linnette Rodríguez, Héctor Villanueva, Jorge Vázquez, Ivonne Rivera

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On July 2020, a private non-profit community health center (HealthProMed) that serves people without a medical insurance plan or with limited resources in one of the most populated areas in San Juan, Puerto Rico, implemented a COVID-19 case investigation and contact-tracing surveillance system. Nursing personnel at the health center completed a computerized case investigation form that was translated, adapted, and modified from CDC’s Patient Under Investigation (PUI) Form. Between July 13, 2020, and March 17, 2022, a total of 9,233 SARS-CoV-2 tests were conducted at the health center, 16.9% of which were classified as confirmed cases (positive molecular test) and 27.7% as probable cases (positive serologic test). Most of the confirmed cases were females (60.0%), under 20 years old (29.1%), and living in their homes (59.1%). In the 14 days before the onset of symptoms, 26.3% of confirmed cases reported going to the supermarket, 22.4% had contact with a known COVID-19 case, and 20.7% went to work. The symptoms most commonly reported were sore throat (33.4%), runny nose (33.3%), cough (24.9%), and headache (23.2%). The most common preexisting medical conditions among confirmed cases were hypertension (19.3%), chronic lung disease including asthma, emphysema, COPD (13.3%), and diabetes mellitus (12.8). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that patients who used alcohol frequently during the last two weeks (OR=1.43; 95%CI: 1.15-1.77), those who were in contact with a positive case (OR=1.58; 95%CI: 1.33-1.88) and those who were obese (OR=1.82; 95%CI: 1.24-2.69) were significantly more likely to be a confirmed case after controlling for sociodemographic variables. Implementing a case investigation and contact-tracing component at community health centers can be of great value in the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the community level and could be used in future outbreaks.

Keywords: community health center, Puerto Rico, risk factors, SARS-CoV-2

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104 Using Seismic and GPS Data for Hazard Estimation in Some Active Regions in Egypt

Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

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Egypt rapidly growing development is accompanied by increasing levels of standard living particular in its urban areas. However, there is a limited experience in quantifying the sources of risk management in Egypt and in designing efficient strategies to keep away serious impacts of earthquakes. From the historical point of view and recent instrumental records, there are some seismo-active regions in Egypt, where some significant earthquakes had occurred in different places. The special tectonic features in Egypt: Aswan, Greater Cairo, Red Sea and Sinai Peninsula regions are the territories of a high seismic risk, which have to be monitored by up-to date technologies. The investigations of the seismic events and interpretations led to evaluate the seismic hazard for disaster prevention and for the safety of the dense populated regions and the vital national projects as the High Dam. In addition to the monitoring of the recent crustal movements, the most powerful technique of satellite geodesy GPS are used where geodetic networks are covering such seismo-active regions. The results from the data sets are compared and combined in order to determine the main characteristics of the deformation and hazard estimation for specified regions. The final compiled output from the seismological and geodetic analysis threw lights upon the geodynamical regime of these seismo-active regions and put Aswan and Greater Cairo under the lowest class according to horizontal crustal strains classifications. This work will serve a basis for the development of so-called catastrophic models and can be further used for catastrophic risk management. Also, this work is trying to evaluate risk of large catastrophic losses within the important regions including the High Dam, strategic buildings and archeological sites. Studies on possible scenarios of earthquakes and losses are a critical issue for decision making in insurance as a part of mitigation measures.

Keywords: b-value, Gumbel distribution, seismic and GPS data, strain parameters

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103 Modelling Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility with Markov-Switching Regression, Single Regime GARCH and Markov-Switching GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from South Africa

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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102 Challenges in the Management of Her2 Neu Positive Breast Cancer Patients: Real World Data from India

Authors: Praveen Adusumilli, Meher Lakshmi Konatam, Sadashivudu Gundeti, Stalin Bala

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The invention of trastuzumab has changed the treatment of breast cancer and lives of many patients all over the world. Despite many patients getting benefitted from the drug, it is out of reach for most of the patients. There is very limited real world data regarding the epidemiology and clinical outcome of Her2neu positive breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of breast cancer patients presenting to a tertiary care cancer centre in Southern India from 2007 to2013. All early and locally advanced breast cancer patients, who were Her2neu 3+ on IHC are included in the study and evaluated in terms of epidemiology, 3-year disease free survival (DFS)and 5-year overall survival(OS). Chemotherapy regimens used were-FAC 6 cycles or AC 4 cycles followed by 12 cycles of weekly paclitaxel . Trastuzumab was given after 6 cycles of FAC or weekly with paclitaxel followed by 3weekly maintenance until 1 year. Results: Over the period of this study there were 885 newly diagnosed cases of carcinoma breast, of which 242 (27%) were Her2neu positive, 360(40%) were hormone receptor positive, and 212(24%) were triple negative. A total of 71(8%) were Her2neu equivocal of which only 10 patients got FISH test done. Of the 212 newly diagnosed patients, only 74 (29%) opted to have standard of care therapy with trastuzumab at our centre, out of which 52(24%), 8(3%), received under insurance, paying basis respectively. 14(9%) patients received the care as part of clinical trial program (ALTTO trial). 7 (9.72%) patients developed decrease of ejection fraction by greater than 10%, requiring stoppage of trastuzumab out of which 5 were restarted in 2 months. Patients receiving trastuzumab along with chemotherapy had longer 3year DFS 92% vs. 60% (p value<0.0001) when compared to chemotherapy alone. 5 year OS was 87% vs 44% (p-value <0.0001) compared to chemotherapy alone. Conclusion: Trastuzumab with chemotherapy improves the DFS and OS in Her2neu positive patients. The biggest constraint is the cost of the treatment and absence of universal health security net to treat all patients with this diagnosis.

Keywords: breast cancer, Her 2 neu positive, real world data, Trastuzumab

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101 Credit Cooperatives: A Factor for Improving the Sustainable Management of Private Forests

Authors: Todor Nickolov Stoyanov

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Cooperatives are present in all countries and in almost all sectors, including agriculture, forestry, food, finance, health, marketing, insurance and credit. Strong cooperatives are able to overcome many of the difficulties faced by private owners. Cooperatives use seven principles, including the 'Community Concern" principle, which enables cooperatives to work for the sustainable development of the community. The members of cooperatives may use different systems for generating year-round employment and for receiving sustainable income through performing different forestry activities. Various methods are used during the preparation of the report. These include literature reviews, statistics, secondary data and expert interviews. The members of the cooperatives are benefits exclusively from increasing the efficiency of the various products and from the overall yield of the harvest, and ultimately from achieving better profit through cooperative efforts. Cooperatives also use other types of activities that are an additional opportunity for cooperative income. There are many heterogeneous activities in the production and service sectors of the forest cooperatives under consideration. Some cooperatives serve dairies, distilleries, woodworking enterprises, tourist homes, hotels and motels, shops, ski slopes, sheep breeding, etc. Through the revenue generated by the activity, cooperatives have the opportunity to carry out various environmental and protective activities - recreation, water protection, protection of endangered and endemic species, etc., which in the case of small-scale forests cannot be achieved and the management is not sustainable. The conclusions indicate the results received in the analysis. Cooperative management of forests and forest lands gives higher incomes to individual owners. The management of forests and forest lands through cooperatives helps to carry out different environmental and protective activities. Cooperative forest management provides additional means of subsistence to the owners of poor forest lands. Cooperative management of forests and forest lands support owners to implement the forest management plans and to apply sustainable management of these territories.

Keywords: cooperative, forestry, forest owners, principles of cooperation

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100 Political Economy on the Recent Labor Condition in the Philippines: A Literature Review

Authors: Lloyd B. Ranises

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The Philippine labor force has been affected by the pandemic recently. The situation was added by the high inflation rate, which makes matter worse. Since the Philippines has a new government after the 2022 national election, the labor condition under the previous government has been passed on to the new one. To understand the labor challenges the present government faces, this study revisits the labor conditions and responses of the previous government from 2016 to 2022. Thus, this study reviews the labor force of the Philippines within the time frame. It explores the challenges in the labor market and examines government policy. This study uses secondary sources in tracing the labor conditions and government actions that addressed them. The Literatures are consolidated to see its relevance to the new government’s labor policy. This study found that the labor force had a sluggish growth earlier until 2018 and thrived on but was affected by the pandemic. By 2020, the National Capital Region’s labor force dropped, although, after which, it begins to thrive again, showing recovery. However, its composition is much more complex. Cognitive skill is high in demand that requires tertiary education. But the production of goods and services is low in the scientific workforce in addition to the mismatch between position and profession. Moreover, Philippine labor has poor female participation. In addition to these complexities, the agricultural rural areas have high underemployment, which implies surplus labor of low skill. Overseas employment, on the other, is significant to the decrease in domestic production. The major responses of the previous government, by far, have been focused on the minimum wage increase and the social services and health insurance, which are appropriate to the post-pandemic needs. Yet still, some issues are unattended. This study concludes that the previous government’s policy needs to be fleshed out substantially. It necessitates that the new administration shall consider encompassing all aspects of the Philippine labor force to sustain and strengthen the economy of the country.

Keywords: cognitive skills, minimum wage, national capital region, underemployment

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99 Transition from Linear to Circular Business Models with Service Design Methodology

Authors: Minna-Maari Harmaala, Hanna Harilainen

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Estimates of the economic value of transitioning to circular economy models vary but it has been estimated to represent $1 trillion worth of new business into the global economy. In Europe alone, estimates claim that adopting circular-economy principles could not only have environmental and social benefits but also generate a net economic benefit of €1.8 trillion by 2030. Proponents of a circular economy argue that it offers a major opportunity to increase resource productivity, decrease resource dependence and waste, and increase employment and growth. A circular system could improve competitiveness and unleash innovation. Yet, most companies are not capturing these opportunities and thus the even abundant circular opportunities remain uncaptured even though they would seem inherently profitable. Service design in broad terms relates to developing an existing or a new service or service concept with emphasis and focus on the customer experience from the onset of the development process. Service design may even mean starting from scratch and co-creating the service concept entirely with the help of customer involvement. Service design methodologies provide a structured way of incorporating customer understanding and involvement in the process of designing better services with better resonance to customer needs. A business model is a depiction of how the company creates, delivers, and captures value; i.e. how it organizes its business. The process of business model development and adjustment or modification is also called business model innovation. Innovating business models has become a part of business strategy. Our hypothesis is that in addition to linear models still being easier to adopt and often with lower threshold costs, companies lack an understanding of how circular models can be adopted into their business and how customers will be willing and ready to adopt the new circular business models. In our research, we use robust service design methodology to develop circular economy solutions with two case study companies. The aim of the process is to not only develop the service concepts and portfolio, but to demonstrate the willingness to adopt circular solutions exists in the customer base. In addition to service design, we employ business model innovation methods to develop, test, and validate the new circular business models further. The results clearly indicate that amongst the customer groups there are specific customer personas that are willing to adopt and in fact are expecting the companies to take a leading role in the transition towards a circular economy. At the same time, there is a group of indifferents, to whom the idea of circularity provides no added value. In addition, the case studies clearly show what changes adoption of circular economy principles brings to the existing business model and how they can be integrated.

Keywords: business model innovation, circular economy, circular economy business models, service design

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98 Artificial Neural Network Model Based Setup Period Estimation for Polymer Cutting

Authors: Zsolt János Viharos, Krisztián Balázs Kis, Imre Paniti, Gábor Belső, Péter Németh, János Farkas

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The paper presents the results and industrial applications in the production setup period estimation based on industrial data inherited from the field of polymer cutting. The literature of polymer cutting is very limited considering the number of publications. The first polymer cutting machine is known since the second half of the 20th century; however, the production of polymer parts with this kind of technology is still a challenging research topic. The products of the applying industrial partner must met high technical requirements, as they are used in medical, measurement instrumentation and painting industry branches. Typically, 20% of these parts are new work, which means every five years almost the entire product portfolio is replaced in their low series manufacturing environment. Consequently, it requires a flexible production system, where the estimation of the frequent setup periods' lengths is one of the key success factors. In the investigation, several (input) parameters have been studied and grouped to create an adequate training information set for an artificial neural network as a base for the estimation of the individual setup periods. In the first group, product information is collected such as the product name and number of items. The second group contains material data like material type and colour. In the third group, surface quality and tolerance information are collected including the finest surface and tightest (or narrowest) tolerance. The fourth group contains the setup data like machine type and work shift. One source of these parameters is the Manufacturing Execution System (MES) but some data were also collected from Computer Aided Design (CAD) drawings. The number of the applied tools is one of the key factors on which the industrial partners’ estimations were based previously. The artificial neural network model was trained on several thousands of real industrial data. The mean estimation accuracy of the setup periods' lengths was improved by 30%, and in the same time the deviation of the prognosis was also improved by 50%. Furthermore, an investigation on the mentioned parameter groups considering the manufacturing order was also researched. The paper also highlights the manufacturing introduction experiences and further improvements of the proposed methods, both on the shop floor and on the quotation preparation fields. Every week more than 100 real industrial setup events are given and the related data are collected.

Keywords: artificial neural network, low series manufacturing, polymer cutting, setup period estimation

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97 Blended Cloud Based Learning Approach in Information Technology Skills Training and Paperless Assessment: Case Study of University of Cape Coast

Authors: David Ofosu-Hamilton, John K. E. Edumadze

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Universities have come to recognize the role Information and Communication Technology (ICT) skills plays in the daily activities of tertiary students. The ability to use ICT – essentially, computers and their diverse applications – are important resources that influence an individual’s economic and social participation and human capital development. Our society now increasingly relies on the Internet, and the Cloud as a means to communicate and disseminate information. The educated individual should, therefore, be able to use ICT to create and share knowledge that will improve society. It is, therefore, important that universities require incoming students to demonstrate a level of computer proficiency or trained to do so at a minimal cost by deploying advanced educational technologies. The training and standardized assessment of all in-coming first-year students of the University of Cape Coast in Information Technology Skills (ITS) have become a necessity as students’ most often than not highly overestimate their digital skill and digital ignorance is costly to any economy. The one-semester course is targeted at fresh students and aimed at enhancing the productivity and software skills of students. In this respect, emphasis is placed on skills that will enable students to be proficient in using Microsoft Office and Google Apps for Education for their academic work and future professional work whiles using emerging digital multimedia technologies in a safe, ethical, responsible, and legal manner. The course is delivered in blended mode - online and self-paced (student centered) using Alison’s free cloud-based tutorial (Moodle) of Microsoft Office videos. Online support is provided via discussion forums on the University’s Moodle platform and tutor-directed and assisted at the ICT Centre and Google E-learning laboratory. All students are required to register for the ITS course during either the first or second semester of the first year and must participate and complete it within a semester. Assessment focuses on Alison online assessment on Microsoft Office, Alison online assessment on ALISON ABC IT, Peer assessment on e-portfolio created using Google Apps/Office 365 and an End of Semester’s online assessment at the ICT Centre whenever the student was ready in the cause of the semester. This paper, therefore, focuses on the digital culture approach of hybrid teaching, learning and paperless examinations and the possible adoption by other courses or programs at the University of Cape Coast.

Keywords: assessment, blended, cloud, paperless

Procedia PDF Downloads 239