Search results for: point estimate method

Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Samaneh Yavari, Christiane Pferrer, Elisabeth Engelke, Alexander Starke, Juergen Rehage

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Background: Three nociceptive thresholds of thermal, electrical, and mechanical thresholds commonly use to evaluate the local anesthesia in many species, for instance, cow, horse, cat, dog, rabbit, and so on. Due to the lack of investigations to evaluate and/or validate such those nociceptive thresholds, our plan was the comparison of two-foot local anesthesia methods of Intravenous Regional Anesthesia (IVRA) and our modified four-point Nerve Block Anesthesia (NBA). Materials and Methods: Eight healthy nonpregnant nondairy Holstein Frisian cows in a cross-over study design were selected for this study. All cows divided into two different groups to receive two local anesthesia techniques of IVRA and our modified four-point NBA. Three thermal, electrical, and mechanical force and pinpricks were applied to evaluate the quality of local anesthesia methods before and after local anesthesia application. Results: The statistical evaluation demonstrated that our four-point NBA has a qualification to select as a standard foot local anesthesia. However, the recorded results of our study revealed no significant difference between two groups of local anesthesia techniques of IVRA and modified four-point NBA related to quality and duration of anesthesia stimulated by electrical, mechanical and thermal nociceptive stimuli. Conclusion and discussion: All three nociceptive threshold stimuli of electrical, mechanical and heat nociceptive thresholds can be applied to measure and evaluate the efficacy of foot local anesthesia of dairy cows. However, our study revealed no superiority of those three nociceptive methods to evaluate the duration and quality of bovine foot local anesthesia methods. Veterinarians to investigate the duration and quality of their selected anesthesia method can use any of those heat, mechanical, and electrical methods.

Keywords: mechanical, thermal, electrical threshold, IVRA, NBA, hind limb, dairy cow

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Mustofa Mahmud Al Mamun

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Government spending, one of the major components of gross domestic product (GDP), is composed of government consumption, investment, and transfer payments. A change in government spending during recessionary periods can generate an increase in GDP greater than the increase in spending. This is called the "multiplier effect". Accurate estimation of government spending multiplier is important because fiscal policy has been used to stimulate a flagging economy. Many recent studies have focused on identifying parts of the economy that responds more to a stimulus under a variety of circumstances. This paper used the US dataset from 1966 to 2020 and local projection method assuming standard identification strategy to estimate the multipliers. The model includes important macroaggregates and controls for forecasted government spending, interest rate, consumer price index (CPI), export, import, and level of public debt. Investment multipliers are found to be positive and larger than the consumption multipliers. Consumption multipliers are either negative or not significantly different than zero. Results do not vary across the business cycle. However, the consumption multiplier estimated from pre-1980 data is positive.

Keywords: business cycle, consumption multipliers, forecasted government spending, investment multipliers, local projection method, zero lower bound

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Muna K. Abbass, Laith A. Mohammed, Muntaha K. Abbas

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The oxidation of Al-Li base alloy containing small amounts of rare earth (RE) oxides such as 0.2 wt% Y2O3 and 0.2wt% Nd2O3 particles have been studied at temperatures: 400ºC, 500ºC and 550°C for 60hr in a dry air. Alloys used in this study were prepared by melting and casting in a permanent steel mould under controlled atmosphere. Identification of oxidation kinetics was carried out by using weight gain/surface area (∆W/A) measurements while scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and x-ray diffraction analysis were used for micro structural morphologies and phase identification of the oxide scales. It was observed that the oxidation kinetic for all studied alloys follows the parabolic law in most experimental tests under the different oxidation temperatures. It was also found that the alloy containing 0.2 wt %Y 2O3 particles possess the lowest oxidation rate and shows great improvements in oxidation resistance compared to the alloy containing 0.2 wt % Nd2O3 particles and Al-Li base alloy. In this work, Taguchi method is performed to estimate the optimum weight gain /area (∆W/A) parameter in oxidation process of Al-Li base alloys to obtain a minimum thickness of oxidation layer. Taguchi method is used to formulate the experimental layout, to analyses the effect of each parameter (time, temperature and alloy type) on the oxidation generation and to predict the optimal choice for each parameter and analyzed the effect of these parameters on the weight gain /area (∆W/A) parameter. The analysis shows that, the temperature significantly affects on the (∆W/A) parameter.

Keywords: Al-Li base alloy, oxidation, Taguchi method, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Kassa Endalamaw Rewnu

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The variability properties of a quasar sample, spectroscopically complete to magnitude J = 22.0, are investigated on a time baseline of 2 years using three different photometric bands (U, J and F). The original sample was obtained using a combination of different selection criteria: colors, slitless spectroscopy and variability, based on a time baseline of 1 yr. The main goals of this work are two-fold: first, to derive the percentage of variable quasars on a relatively short time baseline; secondly, to search for new quasar candidates missed by the other selection criteria; and, thus, to estimate the completeness of the spectroscopic sample. In order to achieve these goals, we have extracted all the candidate variable objects from a sample of about 1800 stellar or quasi-stellar objects with limiting magnitude J = 22.50 over an area of about 0.50 deg2. We find that > 65% of all the objects selected as possible variables are either confirmed quasars or quasar candidates on the basis of their colors. This percentage increases even further if we exclude from our lists of variable candidates a number of objects equal to that expected on the basis of `contamination' induced by our photometric errors. The percentage of variable quasars in the spectroscopic sample is also high, reaching about 50%. On the basis of these results, we can estimate that the incompleteness of the original spectroscopic sample is < 12%. We conclude that variability analysis of data with small photometric errors can be successfully used as an efficient and independent (or at least auxiliary) selection method in quasar surveys, even when the time baseline is relatively short. Finally, when corrected for the different intrinsic time lags corresponding to a fixed observed time baseline, our data do not show a statistically significant correlation between variability and either absolute luminosity or redshift.

Keywords: nuclear activity, galaxies, active quasars, variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Xavier Lorang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Sylvain Girard

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The additive manufacturing processes (e.g. selective laser melting) allow us to produce lattice structures which have less weight, higher impact absorption capacity, and better thermal exchange property compared to the classical structures. Unfortunately, geometric imperfections (defects) in the lattice structures are by-products results of the manufacturing process. These imperfections decrease the lifetime and the strength of the lattice structures and alternate their mechanical responses. The objective of the paper is to present a simulation strategy which allows us to take into account the effect of the geometric imperfections on the mechanical response of the lattice structure. In the first part, an identification method of geometric imperfection parameters of the lattice structure based on point clouds is presented. These point clouds are based on tomography measurements. The point clouds are fed into the platform LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX to characterize the geometric imperfections. This is done by projecting the point clouds of each microbeam along the beam axis onto a 2D surface. Then, by fitting an ellipse to the 2D projections of the points, the geometric imperfections are characterized by introducing three parameters of an ellipse; semi-major/minor axes and angle of rotation. With regard to the calculated parameters of the microbeam geometric imperfections, a statistical analysis is carried out to determine a probability density law based on a statistical hypothesis. The microbeam samples are randomly drawn from the density law and are used to generate lattice structures. In the second part, a finite element model for the lattice structure with the simplified geometric imperfections (ellipse parameters) is presented. This numerical model is used to simulate the generated lattice structures. The propagation of the uncertainties of geometric imperfections is shown through the distribution of the computed mechanical responses of the lattice structures.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, finite element model, geometric imperfections, lattice structures, propagation of uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed

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Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: Akshay B. Pawar, Rohit Y. Parasnis

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Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is a widely used indicator of the regulation between the autonomic nervous system (ANS) and the cardiovascular system. Besides being non-invasive, it also has the potential to predict mortality in cases involving critical injuries. The gold standard method for determining HRV is based on the analysis of RR interval time series extracted from ECG signals. However, because it is much more convenient to obtain photoplethysmogramic (PPG) signals as compared to ECG signals (which require the attachment of several electrodes to the body), many researchers have used pulse cycle intervals instead of RR intervals to estimate HRV. They have also compared this method with the gold standard technique. Though most of their observations indicate a strong correlation between the two methods, recent studies show that in healthy subjects, except for a few parameters, the pulse-based method cannot be a surrogate for the standard RR interval- based method. Moreover, the former tends to overestimate short-term variability in heart rate. This calls for improvements in or alternatives to the pulse-cycle interval method. In this study, besides the systolic peak-peak interval method (PP method) that has been studied several times, four recent PPG-based techniques, namely the first derivative peak-peak interval method (P1D method), the second derivative peak-peak interval method (P2D method), the valley-valley interval method (VV method) and the tangent-intersection interval method (TI method) were compared with the gold standard technique. ECG and PPG signals were obtained from 10 young and healthy adults (consisting of both males and females) seated in the armchair position. In order to de-noise these signals and eliminate baseline drift, they were passed through certain digital filters. After filtering, the following HRV parameters were computed from PPG using each of the five methods and also from ECG using the gold standard method: time domain parameters (SDNN, pNN50 and RMSSD), frequency domain parameters (Very low-frequency power (VLF), Low-frequency power (LF), High-frequency power (HF) and Total power or “TP”). Besides, Poincaré plots were also plotted and their SD1/SD2 ratios determined. The resulting sets of parameters were compared with those yielded by the standard method using measures of statistical correlation (correlation coefficient) as well as statistical agreement (Bland-Altman plots). From the viewpoint of correlation, our results show that the best PPG-based methods for the determination of most parameters and Poincaré plots are the P2D method (shows more than 93% correlation with the standard method) and the PP method (mean correlation: 88%) whereas the TI, VV and P1D methods perform poorly (<70% correlation in most cases). However, our evaluation of statistical agreement using Bland-Altman plots shows that none of the five techniques agrees satisfactorily well with the gold standard method as far as time-domain parameters are concerned. In conclusion, excellent statistical correlation implies that certain PPG-based methods provide a good amount of information on the pattern of heart rate variation, whereas poor statistical agreement implies that PPG cannot completely replace ECG in the determination of HRV.

Keywords: photoplethysmography, heart rate variability, correlation coefficient, Bland-Altman plot

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Authors: Thabo M. Bafitlhile, Adewole Oladele

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Botswana has been affected by floods since long ago and is still experiencing this tragic event. Flooding occurs mostly in the North-West, North-East, and parts of Central district due to heavy rainfalls experienced in these areas. The torrential rains destroyed homes, roads, flooded dams, fields and destroyed livestock and livelihoods. Palapye is one area in the central district that has been experiencing floods ever since 1995 when its greatest flood on record occurred. Heavy storms result in floods and inundation; this has been exacerbated by poor and absence of drainage structures. Since floods are a part of nature, they have existed and will to continue to exist, hence more destruction. Furthermore floods and highway plays major role in erosion and destruction of roads structures. Already today, many culverts, trenches, and other drainage facilities lack the capacity to deal with current frequency for extreme flows. Future changes in the pattern of hydro climatic events will have implications for the design and maintenance costs of roads. Increase in rainfall and severe weather events can affect the demand for emergent responses. Therefore flood forecasting and warning is a prerequisite for successful mitigation of flood damage. In flood prone areas like Palapye, preventive measures should be taken to reduce possible adverse effects of floods on the environment including road structures. Therefore this paper attempts to estimate return periods associated with huge storms of different magnitude from recorded historical rainfall depth using statistical method. The method of annual maxima was used to select data sets for the rainfall analysis. In the statistical method, the Type 1 extreme value (Gumbel), Log Normal, Log Pearson 3 distributions were all applied to the annual maximum series for Palapye area to produce IDF curves. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi Squared were used to confirm the appropriateness of fitted distributions for the location and the data do fit the distributions used to predict expected frequencies. This will be a beneficial tool for urgent flood forecasting and water resource administration as proper drainage design will be design based on the estimated flood events and will help to reclaim and protect the road structures from adverse impacts of flood.

Keywords: drainage, estimate, evaluation, floods, flood forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 371

Authors: Subhamita Chakraborty, Shubhabrata Datta, Sujay Kumar Mukherjea, Partha Protim Chattopadhyay

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Manufacturing of multiphase high strength steel in hot strip mill have drawn significant attention due to the possibility of forming low temperature transformation product of austenite under continuous cooling condition. In such endeavor, reliable prediction of temperature profile of hot strip coil is essential in order to accesses the evolution of microstructure at different location of hot strip coil, on the basis of corresponding Continuous Cooling Transformation (CCT) diagram. Temperature distribution profile of the hot strip coil has been determined by using finite volume method (FVM) vis-à-vis finite difference method (FDM). It has been demonstrated that FVM offer greater computational reliability in estimation of contact pressure distribution and hence the temperature distribution for curved and irregular profiles, owing to the flexibility in selection of grid geometry and discrete point position, Moreover, use of finite volume concept allows enforcing the conservation of mass, momentum and energy, leading to enhanced accuracy of prediction.

Keywords: simulation, modeling, thermal analysis, coil cooling, contact pressure, finite volume method

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

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This research proposes a methodology to estimate the customer order lead time in the supply chain based on the process capability index. The cases when the process output is normally distributed and when it is not are considered. The relationships between the system capability indices in both service and manufacturing applications, delivery system reliability and the percentages of orders delivered after their promised due dates are presented. The proposed method can be used to examine the current process capability to deliver the orders before the promised lead-time. If the system was found to be incapable, the method can be used to help revise the current lead-time to a proper value according to the service reliability level selected by the management. Numerical examples and a case study describing the lead time estimation methodology and testing the system capability of delivering the orders before their promised due date are illustrated.

Keywords: lead-time estimation, process capability index, delivery system reliability, statistical analysis, service achievement index, service quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 555

Authors: Suparman

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Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation of piecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters of picewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters of picewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.

Keywords: regression, piecewise, Bayesian, reversible Jump MCMC

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Authors: Sakshi Yadav, Sushila Shekhawat

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This study addresses different types of points of view as seen in nature documentary films with the help of three eco documentaries, and it would be significant in understanding the role of the narrative point of view as a tool for showing and telling in documentaries. Narrative analysis of a film forms an essential aspect of the discourse of scholarship in film studies. Narration is the chain of events occurring in time and space. The notion of narrative provides the idea of coherence and wholeness to the story. There are various components that the narration carries, one of which is the perspective or point of view. The narrator plays the role of a mediator between the film and the audience; thus, his perspective influences the way the audience interprets the film. Feature films have been analyzed through narrative points of view; however, this research intends to conduct it from the angle of a nature documentary film. The study will examine narrative viewpoints unique to nature documentary films using three ecological documentary films-The Cove (2009), Tale of a forest (2012), and Before the flood (2016). This research will apply the framework of narrative theory and will investigate the impact of the different types of narrative points of view, as each portrays the human-nature relationship from a different standpoint, and it will also study the effect that the narrative point of view has on the mode of these eco documentaries.

Keywords: ecodocumentary, narrative, human-nature relationship, point of view

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Bin Zhou, Tongli Lu, Jianwu Zhang, Hongtao Hao

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Dual clutch transmissions (DCT) offer a high comfort performance in terms of the gearshift. Hydraulic multi-disk clutches are the key components of DCT, its engagement determines the shifting comfort. The prefill of the clutches requests an initial engagement which the clutches just contact against each other but not transmit substantial torque from the engine, this initial clutch engagement point is called the touch point. Open-loop control is typically implemented for the clutch prefill, a lot of uncertainties, such as oil temperature and clutch wear, significantly affects the prefill, probably resulting in an inappropriate touch point. Underfill causes the engine flaring in gearshift while overfill arises clutch tying up, both deteriorating the shifting comfort of DCT. Therefore, it is important to enable an adaptive capacity for the clutch prefills regarding the uncertainties. In this paper, a dynamic model of the hydraulic actuator system is presented, including the variable force solenoid and clutch piston, and validated by a test. Subsequently, the open-loop clutch prefill is simulated based on the proposed model. Two control parameters of the prefill, fast fill time and stable fill pressure is analyzed with regard to the impact on the prefill. The former has great effects on the pressure transients, the latter directly influences the touch point. Finally, an adaptive method is proposed for the clutch prefill during gear shifting, in which clutch fill control parameters are adjusted adaptively and continually. The adaptive strategy is changing the stable fill pressure according to the current clutch slip during a gearshift, improving the next prefill process. The stable fill pressure is increased by means of the clutch slip while underfill and decreased with a constant value for overfill. The entire strategy is designed in the Simulink/Stateflow, and implemented in the transmission control unit with optimization. Road vehicle test results have shown the strategy realized its adaptive capability and proven it improves the shifting comfort.

Keywords: clutch prefill, clutch slip, dual clutch transmission, touch point, variable force solenoid

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Authors: Elena Castillo-López, Raúl Pereda, Julio Manuel de Luis, Rubén Pérez, Felipe Piña

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Sediments are an important source of accumulation of toxic contaminants within the aquatic environment. Bioassays are a powerful tool for the study of sediments in relation to their toxicity, but they can be expensive. This article presents a methodology to estimate the main physical property of intertidal sediments in coastal zones: heavy metals concentration. This study, which was developed in the Bay of Santander (Spain), applies classical and robust statistic to CASI-2 hyperspectral images to estimate heavy metals presence and ecotoxicity (TOC). Simultaneous fieldwork (radiometric and chemical sampling) allowed an appropriate atmospheric correction to CASI-2 images.

Keywords: remote sensing, intertidal sediment, airborne sensors, heavy metals, eTOCoxicity, robust statistic, estimation

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Authors: Vinod K. Singh, S. G. Chung

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The degree of structuration of Busan clays at the mouth of Nakdong River mouth was highly influenced by the depositional environment, i.e., flow of the river stream, marine regression, and transgression during the sedimentation process. As a result, the geotechnical properties also varies along the depth with change in degree of structuration. Thus, the in-situ tests such as cone penetration test (CPT) could not be used to predict various geotechnical properties properly by using the conventional empirical methods. In this paper, the shear wave velocity (Vs) was measured from the field using the seismic dilatometer. The Vs was also measured in the laboratory from high quality undisturbed and remolded samples using bender element method to evaluate the degree of structuration. The degree of structuration was quantitatively defined by the modulus ratio of undisturbed to remolded soil samples which is found well correlated with the normalized void ratio (e0/eL) where eL is the void ratio at the liquid limit. It is revealed that the empirical method based on laboratory results incorporating e0/eL can predict Vs from the field more accurately. Thereafter, the CPT based empirical method was developed to estimate the shear wave velocity taking the effect of structuration in the consideration. The developed method was found to predict shear wave velocity reasonably for Busan clays.

Keywords: level of structuration, normalized modulus, normalized void ratio, shear wave velocity, site characterization

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Authors: Yahya Jahangiri, Ali Almasi

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Currently capitalism is one of the most important economic issues discussed by great scholars around the world. But Islamic approach, regarding this issue may differ both western and eastern views. A greatest scholar in Islamic economy ‘especially in Shia’ is Martyr Muhammad Baqir Al-Sadr. He wrote “Our economy” (Iqtisaduna) to present an economic point of view according to the Islamic teachings. In this regard firstly we will mention three approaches which are common in Muslim scullers about the economic science and then the main approach which is Sadr's view is described here. His claim explains that Islam and capitalism are in conflict with each other. And finally he explains the relationship between Islam and economy and he suggests the Islamic point of view in economy and its foundations as a solution for economic problems which we face today.

Keywords: Islam, economic science, capitalism, Martyr Sadr

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Nwadike Emmanuel Chinagoron, Achebe Chukwunonso, Ezeliora Chukwuemeka Daniel, Azaka Onyemazuwa Andrew

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In this research work, the process of biodiesel production in a pilot plant was studied using cow tallow as raw material, methanol as the solvent and potassium hydroxide as catalysts. The biodiesel quality was determined by characterization. The tallow used in the production had a molecular weight of 860g. Its oil had a density value of 0.8g/ml, iodine value of 63.45, viscosity at 300C was 9.83pas, acid value was 1.96, free fatty acid (FFA) of 0.98%, saponification value of 82.75mleq/kg, specific gravity of 0.898, flash point of 1100C, cloud point of 950C and Calorific value also called Higher Heating Value (HHV) of 38.365MJ/Kg. The produced biodiesel had a density of 0.82g/ml, iodine value of 126.9, viscosity of 4.32pas at 300C, acid value of 0.561, FFA of 0.2805%, saponification value of 137.45 mleq/kg.Flash point, cloud point and centane number of the biodiesel produced are 1390C, 980C and 57.5 respectively, with fat content, protein content, ash content, moisture content, fiber content and carbohydrate content values of 10%, 2.8%, 5%, 5%, 20%, and 37.2% respectively. The biodiesel higher heating values (calorific values) when estimated from viscosity, density and flash points were 41.4MJ/Kg, 63.8MJ/Kg, and 34.6MJ/Kg respectively. The biodiesel was blended with conventional diesel. The blend B-10 had values of 1320C and 960C for flash and cloud points, with Calorific value (or HHV) of 34.6 MJ/Kg (when estimated from its Flash point) and fat content, protein content, ash content, moisture content, fiber content and carbohydrate content values of 5%, 2.1%,10%, 5%, 15%, and 62.9% respectively.

Keywords: biodiesel, characterization, cow-tallow, cetane rating

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Authors: Dalson Figueiredo, Enivaldo Rocha, Ranulfo Paranhos, José Alexandre

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This paper analyzes the effects of institutional capacity on corruption. Methodologically, the research design combines both descriptive and multivariate statistics to examine two original datasets based on secondary data. In particular, we employ a principal component model to estimate an indicator of institutional capacity for both state audit institutions and subnational judiciary courts. Then, we estimate the effect of institutional capacity on two dependent variables: (1) incidence of administrative irregularities and (2) time elapsed to judge corruption cases. The preliminary results using ordinary least squares, negative binomial and Tobit models suggest the same conclusions: higher the institutional audit capacity, higher is the probability of detecting a corruption case. On the other hand, higher the institutional capacity of state judiciary, the lower is the time to judge corruption cases.

Keywords: institutional capacity, corruption, state level institutions, evidence from Brazil

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Authors: Nattachote Rugthaicharoencheep

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This paper presents a feeder reconfiguration problem in distribution systems. The objective is to minimize the system power loss and to improve bus voltage profile. The optimization problem is subjected to system constraints consisting of load-point voltage limits, radial configuration format, no load-point interruption, and feeder capability limits. A method based on genetic algorithm, a search algorithm based on the mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics, is proposed to determine the optimal pattern of configuration. The developed methodology is demonstrated by a 33-bus radial distribution system with distributed generations and feeder capacitors. The study results show that the optimal on/off patterns of the switches can be identified to give the minimum power loss while respecting all the constraints.

Keywords: network reconfiguration, distributed generation capacitor placement, loss reduction, genetic algorithm

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Authors: H. S. S Abou El-Mal, A. S. Sherbini, H. E. M. Sallam

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Mode II fracture toughness (KIIc) of fiber reinforced concrete has been widely investigated under various patterns of testing geometries. The effect of fiber type, concrete matrix properties, and testing mechanisms were extensively studied. The area of hybrid fiber addition shows a lake of reported research data. In this paper an experimental investigation of hybrid fiber embedded in high strength concrete matrix is reported. Three different types of fibers; namely steel (S), glass (G), and polypropylene (PP) fibers were mixed together in four hybridization patterns, (S/G), (S/PP), (G/PP), (S/G/PP) with constant cumulative volume fraction (Vf) of 1.5%. The concrete matrix properties were kept the same for all hybrid fiber reinforced concrete patterns. In an attempt to estimate a fairly accepted value of fracture toughness KIIc, four testing geometries and loading types are employed in this investigation. Four point shear, Brazilian notched disc, double notched cube, and double edge notched specimens are investigated in a trial to avoid the limitations and sensitivity of each test regarding geometry, size effect, constraint condition, and the crack length to specimen width ratio a/w. The addition of all hybridization patterns of fiber reduced the compressive strength and increased mode II fracture toughness in pure mode II tests. Mode II fracture toughness of concrete KIIc decreased with the increment of a/w ratio for all concretes and test geometries. Mode II fracture toughness KIIc is found to be sensitive to the hybridization patterns of fiber. The (S/PP) hybridization pattern showed higher values than all other patterns, while the (S/G/PP) showed insignificant enhancement on mode II fracture toughness (KIIc). Four point shear (4PS) test set up reflects the most reliable values of mode II fracture toughness KIIc of concrete. Mode II fracture toughness KIIc of concrete couldn’t be assumed as a real material property.

Keywords: fiber reinforced concrete, Hybrid fiber, Mode II fracture toughness, testing geometry

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Authors: Jiwoo Park, Junseok Yoon, Jeong Kim, Beomsoo Kang

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Multi-Point Stretch Forming (MPSF) process is suitable for flexible manufacturing, and it has several advantages including that it could be applied to various forming such as sheet metal forming, single curved surface forming and double curved one. In this study, a systematic numerical simulation was carried out for atypical double curved surface forming using the multiple die stretch forming process. In this simulation, urethane pads were defined based on hyper-elastic material model as a cushion for the smooth forming surface. The deformation behaviour on elastic recovery was also investigated to consider the exact result after the last forming process, and then the experiment was also carried out to confirm the formability of this forming process. By comparing the simulation and experiment results, the suitability of the multiple die stretch forming process for the atypical double curved surface was verified. Consequently, it is confirmed that the multi-point stretch forming process has the capability and feasibility of being used to manufacture the double curved surfaces of sheet metal.

Keywords: multi-point stretch forming, double curved surface, numerical simulation, manufacturing

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: Ehsan Yari

Abstract:

In this paper, a numerical study of sheet cavitation has been performed on DTMB4119 and E779A marine propellers with the boundary element method. In propeller design, various parameters of geometry and fluid are incorporated. So a program is needed to solve the flow taking the whole parameters changing into account. The capability of analyzing the wetted and cavitation flow around propellers in steady, unsteady, uniform, and non-uniform conditions while decreasing computational time compared to numerical finite volume methods with acceptable precision are the characteristic features of the present method. Moreover, modifying the position of the detachment point and its corresponding potential value has been considered. Numerical results have been validated with experimental data, showing a good conformation.

Keywords: cavitation, BEM, DTMB4119, E779A

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

Abstract:

The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Vishwanath Mali, Hemant Warhatkar, Raju Pawade

Abstract:

Drilling of bone has been always challenging for surgeons due to the adverse effect it may impart to bone tissues. Force has to be applied manually by the surgeon while performing conventional bone drilling which may lead to permanent death of bone tissues and nerves. During bone drilling the temperature of the bone tissues increases to higher values above 47 ⁰C that causes thermal osteonecrosis resulting into screw loosening and subsequent implant failures. An attempt has been made here to study the input drilling parameters and surgical drill bit geometry affecting bone health during bone drilling. A One Factor At a Time (OFAT) method is used to plan the experiments. Input drilling parameters studied include spindle speed and feed rate. The drill bit geometry parameter studied include point angle and helix angle. The output variables are drilling thrust force and bone temperature. The experiments were conducted on goat femur bone at room temperature 30 ⁰C. For measurement of thrust forces KISTLER cutting force dynamometer Type 9257BA was used. For continuous data acquisition of temperature NI LabVIEW software was used. Fixture was made on RPT machine for holding the bone specimen while performing drilling operation. Bone specimen were preserved in deep freezer (LABTOP make) under -40 ⁰C. In case of drilling parameters, it is observed that at constant feed rate when spindle speed increases, thrust force as well as temperature decreases and at constant spindle speed when feed rate increases thrust force as well as temperature increases. The effect of drill bit geometry shows that at constant helix angle when point angle increases thrust force as well as temperature increases and at constant point angle when helix angle increase thrust force as well as temperature decreases. Hence it is concluded that as the thrust force increases temperature increases. In case of drilling parameter, the lowest thrust force and temperature i.e. 35.55 N and 36.04 ⁰C respectively were recorded at spindle speed 2000 rpm and feed rate 0.04 mm/rev. In case of drill bit geometry parameter, the lowest thrust force and temperature i.e. 40.81 N and 34 ⁰C respectively were recorded at point angle 70⁰ and helix angle 25⁰ Hence to avoid thermal necrosis of bone it is recommended to use higher spindle speed, lower feed rate, low point angle and high helix angle. The hard nature of cortical bone contributes to a greater rise in temperature whereas a considerable drop in temperature is observed during cancellous bone drilling.

Keywords: bone drilling, helix angle, point angle, thrust force, temperature, thermal necrosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz

Abstract:

Estimation of a proportion has many applications in economics and social studies. A common application is the estimation of the low income proportion, which gives the proportion of people classified as poor into a population. In this paper, we present this poverty indicator and propose to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the low income proportion. Various sampling designs are presented. Assuming a real data set obtained from the European Survey on Income and Living Conditions, Monte Carlo simulation studies are carried out to analyze the empirical performance of the logistic regression estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. Results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the customary estimator under the various sampling designs considered in this paper. The stratified sampling design can also provide more accurate results.

Keywords: poverty line, risk of poverty, auxiliary variable, ratio method

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: M. M. Ali, Ahmed Al- Ani, Derek Eamus, Daniel K. Y. Tan

Abstract:

In this glasshouse study, we developed the new image-based non-destructive technique for detecting leaf P status of different crops such as cotton, tomato and lettuce. Plants were allowed to grow on nutrient media containing different P concentrations, i.e. 0%, 50% and 100% of recommended P concentration (P0 = no P, L; P1 = 2.5 mL 10 L-1 of P and P2 = 5 mL 10 L-1 of P as NaH2PO4). After 10 weeks of growth, plants were harvested and data on leaf P contents were collected using the standard destructive laboratory method and at the same time leaf images were collected by a handheld crop image sensor. We calculated leaf area, leaf perimeter and RGB (red, green and blue) values of these images. This data was further used in the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to estimate leaf P contents, which successfully classified these plants on the basis of leaf P contents. The data indicated that P deficiency in crop plants can be predicted using the image and morphological data. Our proposed non-destructive imaging method is precise in estimating P requirements of different crop species.

Keywords: image-based techniques, leaf area, leaf P contents, linear discriminant analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Patricia Jiménez, Rafael Corchuelo, Hassan A. Sleiman

Abstract:

Web mining is gaining importance at an increasing pace. Currently, there are many complementary research topics under this umbrella. Their common theme is that they all focus on applying knowledge discovery techniques to data that is gathered from the Web. Sometimes, these data are relatively easy to gather, chiefly when it comes from server logs. Unfortunately, there are cases in which the data to be mined is the data that is displayed on a web document. In such cases, it is necessary to apply a pre-processing step to first extract the information of interest from the web documents. Such pre-processing steps are performed using so-called information extractors, which are software components that are typically configured by means of rules that are tailored to extracting the information of interest from a web page and structuring it according to a pre-defined schema. Paramount to getting good mining results is that the technique used to extract the source information is exact, which requires to evaluate and compare the different proposals in the literature from an empirical point of view. According to Google Scholar, about 4 200 papers on information extraction have been published during the last decade. Unfortunately, they were not evaluated within a homogeneous framework, which leads to difficulties to compare them empirically. In this paper, we report on an original information extraction evaluation method. Our contribution is three-fold: a) this is the first attempt to provide an evaluation method for proposals that work on semi-structured documents; the little existing work on this topic focuses on proposals that work on free text, which has little to do with extracting information from semi-structured documents. b) It provides a method that relies on statistically sound tests to support the conclusions drawn; the previous work does not provide clear guidelines or recommend statistically sound tests, but rather a survey that collects many features to take into account as well as related work; c) We provide a novel method to compute the performance measures regarding unsupervised proposals; otherwise they would require the intervention of a user to compute them by using the annotations on the evaluation sets and the information extracted. Our contributions will definitely help researchers in this area make sure that they have advanced the state of the art not only conceptually, but from an empirical point of view; it will also help practitioners make informed decisions on which proposal is the most adequate for a particular problem. This conference is a good forum to discuss on our ideas so that we can spread them to help improve the evaluation of information extraction proposals and gather valuable feedback from other researchers.

Keywords: web information extractors, information extraction evaluation method, Google scholar, web

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: P. Zamani, S. Mohajerzadeh, R. Masoudinejad, K. Farhangdoost

Abstract:

The riveting process is one of the important ways to keep fastening the lap joints in aircraft structures. Failure of aircraft lap joints directly depends on the stress field in the joint. An important application of riveting process is in the construction of aircraft fuselage structures. In this paper, a 3D finite element method is carried out in order to optimize residual stress field in a riveted lap joint and also to estimate its fatigue life. In continue, a number of experiments are designed and analyzed using design of experiments (DOE). Then, Taguchi method is used to select an optimized case between different levels of each factor. Besides that, the factor which affects the most on residual stress field is investigated. Such optimized case provides the maximum residual stress field. Fatigue life of the optimized joint is estimated by Paris-Erdogan law. Stress intensity factors (SIFs) are calculated using both finite element analysis and experimental formula. In addition, the effect of residual stress field, geometry, and secondary bending are considered in SIF calculation. A good agreement is found between results of such methods. Comparison between optimized fatigue life and fatigue life of other joints has shown an improvement in the joint’s life.

Keywords: fatigue life, residual stress, riveting process, stress intensity factor, Taguchi method

Procedia PDF Downloads 452