Search results for: Carlo Alberto Bignozzi

Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

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Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Pranay Mathur, Carlo Michelassi, Simi Karatha, Gilda Pedoto

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Industrial plant uptime is top most importance for reliable, profitable & sustainable operation. Trip and failed start has major impact on plant reliability and all plant operators focussed on efforts required to minimise the trips & failed starts. The performance of these CTQs are measured with 2 metrics, MTBT(Mean time between trips) and SR (Starting reliability). These metrics helps to identify top failure modes and identify units need more effort to improve plant reliability. Baker Hughes Trip reduction program structured to reduce these unwanted trip 1. Real time machine operational parameters remotely available and capturing the signature of malfunction including related boundary condition. 2. Real time alerting system based on analytics available remotely. 3. Remote access to trip logs and alarms from control system to identify the cause of events. 4. Continuous support to field engineers by remotely connecting with subject matter expert. 5. Live tracking of key CTQs 6. Benchmark against fleet 7. Break down to the cause of failure to component level 8. Investigate top contributor, identify design and operational root cause 9. Implement corrective and preventive action 10. Assessing effectiveness of implemented solution using reliability growth models. 11. Develop analytics for predictive maintenance With this approach , Baker Hughes team is able to support customer in achieving their Reliability Key performance Indicators for monitored units, huge cost savings for plant operators. This Presentation explains these approach while providing successful case studies, in particular where 12nos. of LNG and Pipeline operators with about 140 gas compressing line-ups has adopted these techniques and significantly reduce the number of trips and improved MTBT

Keywords: reliability, availability, sustainability, digital infrastructure, weibull, effectiveness, automation, trips, fail start

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Alberto Veses, Olga Sanhauja, María Soledad Callén, Tomás García

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The appropriate use of renewable sources emerges as a decisive point to minimize the environmental impact caused by fossil fuels use. Particularly, the use of lignocellulosic biomass becomes one of the best promising alternatives since it is the only carbon-containing renewable source that can produce bioproducts similar to fossil fuels and it does not compete with food market. Among all the processes that can valorize lignocellulosic biomass, pyrolysis is an attractive alternative because it is the only thermochemical process that can produce a liquid biofuel (bio-oil) in a simple way and solid and gas fractions that can be used as energy sources to support the process. However, in order to incorporate bio-oils in current infrastructures and further process in future biorefineries, their quality needs to be improved. Introducing different low-cost catalysts and/or incorporating different polymer residues to the process are some of the new, simple and low-cost strategies that allow the user to directly obtain advanced bio-oils to be used in future biorefineries in an economic way. In this manner, from previous thermogravimetric analyses, local agricultural wastes such as grape seeds (GS) were selected as lignocellulosic biomass while, waste tires (WT) were selected as polymer residue. On the other hand, CaO was selected as low-cost catalyst based on previous experiences by the group. To reach this aim, a specially-designed fixed bed reactor using N₂ as a carrier gas was used. This reactor has the peculiarity to incorporate a vertical mobile liner that allows the user to introduce the feedstock in the oven once the selected temperature (550 ºC) is reached, ensuring higher heating rates needed for the process. Obtaining a well-defined phase distribution in the resulting bio-oil is crucial to ensure the viability to the process. Thus, once experiments were carried out, not only a well-defined two layers was observed introducing several mixtures (reaching values up to 40 wt.% of WT) but also, an upgraded organic phase, which is the one considered to be processed in further biorefineries. Radical interactions between GS and WT released during the pyrolysis process and dehydration reactions enhanced by CaO can promote the formation of better-quality bio-oils. The latter was reflected in a reduction of water and oxygen content of bio-oil and hence, a substantial increase of its heating value and its stability. Moreover, not only sulphur content was reduced from solely WT pyrolysis but also potential and negative issues related to a strong acidic environment of conventional bio-oils were minimized due to its basic pH and lower total acid numbers. Therefore, acidic compounds obtained in the pyrolysis such as CO₂-like substances can react with the CaO and minimize acidic problems related to lignocellulosic bio-oils. Moreover, this CO₂ capture promotes H₂ production from water gas shift reaction favoring hydrogen-transfer reactions, improving the final quality of the bio-oil. These results show the great potential of grapes seeds to carry out the catalytic co-pyrolysis process with different plastic residues in order to produce a liquid bio-oil that can be considered as a high-quality renewable vector.

Keywords: advanced bio-oils, biorefinery, catalytic co-pyrolysis of biomass and waste tires, lignocellulosic biomass

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Authors: Begona del Pino, Beatriz Prieto, Alberto Prieto

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Two opposite approaches to teaching can be considered: in-class learning (teacher-oriented) versus virtual learning (student-oriented). The most known example of the latter is Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs). Both methodologies have pros and cons. Nowadays there is an increasing trend towards combining both of them. Blending learning is considered a valuable tool for improving learning since it combines student-centred interactive e-learning and face to face instruction. The aim of this contribution is to exchange and share the experience and research results of a blended-learning project that took place in the University of Granada (Spain). The research objective was to prove how combining didactic resources of a MOOC with in-class teaching, interacting directly with students, can substantially improve academic results, as well as student acceptance. The proposed methodology is based on the use of flipped learning technics applied to the subject ‘Fundamentals of Computer Science’ of the first course of two degrees: Telecommunications Engineering, and Industrial Electronics. In this proposal, students acquire the theoretical knowledges at home through a MOOC platform, where they watch video-lectures, do self-evaluation tests, and use other academic multimedia online resources. Afterwards, they have to attend to in-class teaching where they do other activities in order to interact with teachers and the rest of students (discussing of the videos, solving of doubts and practical exercises, etc.), trying to overcome the disadvantages of self-regulated learning. The results are obtained through the grades of the students and their assessment of the blended experience, based on an opinion survey conducted at the end of the course. The major findings of the study are the following: The percentage of students passing the subject has grown from 53% (average from 2011 to 2014 using traditional learning methodology) to 76% (average from 2015 to 2018 using blended methodology). The average grade has improved from 5.20±1.99 to 6.38±1.66. The results of the opinion survey indicate that most students preferred blended methodology to traditional approaches, and positively valued both courses. In fact, 69% of students felt ‘quite’ or ‘very’ satisfied with the classroom activities; 65% of students preferred the flipped classroom methodology to traditional in-class lectures, and finally, 79% said they were ‘quite’ or ‘very’ satisfied with the course in general. The main conclusions of the experience are the improvement in academic results, as well as the highly satisfactory assessments obtained in the opinion surveys. The results confirm the huge potential of combining MOOCs in formal undergraduate studies with on-campus learning activities. Nevertheless, the results in terms of students’ participation and follow-up have a wide margin for improvement. The method is highly demanding for both students and teachers. As a recommendation, students must perform the assigned tasks with perseverance, every week, in order to take advantage of the face-to-face classes. This perseverance is precisely what needs to be promoted among students because it clearly brings about an improvement in learning.

Keywords: blended learning, educational paradigm, flipped classroom, flipped learning technologies, lessons learned, massive online open course, MOOC, teacher roles through technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Michael A. Unbehauen, Gregory D. Sloan, Alberto J. Squatrito

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Missile proliferation and global stability are intrinsically linked. Missile threats continually appear at the forefront of global security issues. North Korea’s recently demonstrated nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities, for the first time since the Cold War, renewed public interest in strategic missile defense capabilities. To protect from limited ICBM attacks from so-called rogue actors, the United States developed the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system. This study examines if the GMD missile defense shield has contributed to a safer world or triggered a new arms race. Based upon increased missile-related developments and the lack of adherence to international missile treaties, it is generally perceived that the GMD system is a destabilizing factor for global security. By examining the current state of arms control treaties as well as existing missile arsenals and ongoing efforts in technologies to overcome U.S. missile defenses, this study seeks to analyze the contribution of GMD to global stability. A thorough investigation cannot ignore that, through the establishment of this limited capability, the U.S. violated longstanding, successful weapons treaties and caused concern among states that possess ICBMs. GMD capability contributes to the perception that ICBM arsenals could become ineffective, creating an imbalance in favor of the United States, leading to increased global instability and tension. While blame for the deterioration of global stability and non-adherence to arms control treaties is often placed on U.S. missile defense, the facts do not necessarily support this view. The notion of a renewed arms race due to GMD is supported neither by current missile arsenals nor by the inevitable development of new and enhanced missile technology, to include multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MIRVs), maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs), and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs). The methodology in this study encapsulates a period of time, pre- and post-GMD introduction, while analyzing international treaty adherence, missile counts and types, and research in new missile technologies. The decline in international treaty adherence, coupled with a measurable increase in the number and types of missiles or research in new missile technologies during the period after the introduction of GMD, could be perceived as a clear indicator of GMD contributing to global instability. However, research into improved technology (MIRV, MaRV and HGV) prior to GMD, as well as a decline of various global missile inventories and testing of systems during this same period, would seem to invalidate this theory. U.S. adversaries have exploited the perception of the U.S. missile defense shield as a destabilizing factor as a pretext to strengthen and modernize their militaries and justify their policies. As a result, it can be concluded that global stability has not significantly decreased due to GMD; but rather, the natural progression of technological and missile development would inherently include innovative and dynamic approaches to target engagement, deterrence, and national defense.

Keywords: arms control, arms race, global security, GMD, ICBM, missile defense, proliferation

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Shaikah Alsubayae, Gianluigi Casse, Carlos Chavez, Jon Taylor, Alan Taylor, Mohammad Alsulimane

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Achieving precise radiotherapy through carbon therapy necessitates the accurate monitoring of radiation dose distribution within the patient's body. This process is pivotal for targeted tumor treatment, minimizing harm to healthy tissues, and enhancing overall treatment effectiveness while reducing the risk of side effects. In our investigation, we adopted a methodological approach to monitor secondary proton doses in carbon therapy using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Initially, Geant4 simulations were employed to extract the initial positions of secondary particles generated during interactions between carbon ions and water, including protons, gamma rays, alpha particles, neutrons, and tritons. Subsequently, we explored the relationship between the carbon ion beam and these secondary particles. Interaction vertex imaging (IVI) proves valuable for monitoring dose distribution during carbon therapy, providing information about secondary particle locations and abundances, particularly protons. The IVI method relies on charged particles produced during ion fragmentation to gather range information by reconstructing particle trajectories back to their point of origin, known as the vertex. In the context of carbon ion therapy, our simulation results indicated a strong correlation between some secondary particles and the range of carbon ions. However, challenges arose due to the unique elongated geometry of the target, hindering the straightforward transmission of forward-generated protons. Consequently, the limited protons that did emerge predominantly originated from points close to the target entrance. Fragment (protons) trajectories were approximated as straight lines, and a beam back-projection algorithm, utilizing interaction positions recorded in Si detectors, was developed to reconstruct vertices. The analysis revealed a correlation between the reconstructed and actual positions.

Keywords: radiotherapy, carbon therapy, monitor secondary proton doses, interaction vertex imaging

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Authors: Choonsik Lee, Les Folio

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Pregnant patients may undergo CT in emergencies unrelated with pregnancy, and potential risk to the developing fetus is of concern. It is critical to accurately estimate fetal organ doses in CT scans. We developed a fetal organ dose calculation tool using pregnancy-specific computational phantoms combined with Monte Carlo radiation transport techniques. We adopted a series of pregnancy computational phantoms developed at the University of Florida at the gestational ages of 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 38 weeks (Maynard et al. 2011). More than 30 organs and tissues and 20 skeletal sites are defined in each fetus model. We calculated fetal organ dose-normalized by CTDIvol to derive organ dose conversion coefficients (mGy/mGy) for the eight fetuses for consequential slice locations ranging from the top to the bottom of the pregnancy phantoms with 1 cm slice thickness. Organ dose from helical scans was approximated by the summation of doses from multiple axial slices included in the given scan range of interest. We then compared dose conversion coefficients for major fetal organs in the abdominal-pelvis CT scan of pregnancy phantoms with the uterine dose of a non-pregnant adult female computational phantom. A comprehensive library of organ conversion coefficients was established for the eight developing fetuses undergoing CT. They were implemented into an in-house graphical user interface-based computer program for convenient estimation of fetal organ doses by inputting CT technical parameters as well as the age of the fetus. We found that the esophagus received the least dose, whereas the kidneys received the greatest dose in all fetuses in AP scans of the pregnancy phantoms. We also found that when the uterine dose of a non-pregnant adult female phantom is used as a surrogate for fetal organ doses, root-mean-square-error ranged from 0.08 mGy (8 weeks) to 0.38 mGy (38 weeks). The uterine dose was up to 1.7-fold greater than the esophagus dose of the 38-week fetus model. The calculation tool should be useful in cases requiring fetal organ dose in emergency CT scans as well as patient dose monitoring.

Keywords: computed tomography, fetal dose, pregnant women, radiation dose

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Authors: Adolfo Martucci, Iulian Mihai

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By means of the expansion through a Conical Nozzle and the low pressure inside the Test Chamber, a large hypersonic stable flow takes place for a duration of up to 30 minutes. Downstream the Test Chamber, the diffuser has the function of reducing the flow velocity to subsonic values, and as a consequence, the temperature increases again. In order to cool down the flow, a heat exchanger is present at the end of the diffuser. The Vacuum System generates the necessary vacuum conditions for the correct hypersonic flow generation, and the DeNOx system, which follows the Vacuum System, reduces the nitrogen oxide concentrations created inside the plasma flow behind the limits imposed by Italian law. This very large, powerful, and complex facility allows researchers and engineers to reproduce entire re-entry trajectories of space vehicles into the atmosphere. One of the most important parameters for a hypersonic flowfield representative of re-entry conditions is the specific total enthalpy. This is the whole energy content of the fluid, and it represents how severe could be the conditions around a spacecraft re-entering from a space mission or, in our case, inside a hypersonic wind tunnel. It is possible to reach very high values of enthalpy (up to 45 MJ/kg) that, together with the large allowable size of the models, represent huge possibilities for making on-ground experiments regarding the atmospheric re-entry field. The maximum nozzle exit section diameter is 1950 mm, where values of Mach number very much higher than 1 can be reached. The specific total enthalpy is evaluated by means of a number of measurements, each of them concurring with its value and its uncertainty. The scope of the present paper is the evaluation of the sensibility of the uncertainty of the specific total enthalpy versus all the parameters and measurements involved. The sensors that, if improved, could give the highest advantages have so been individuated. Several simulations in Python with the METAS library and by means of Monte Carlo simulations are presented together with the obtained results and discussions about them.

Keywords: hypersonic, uncertainty, enthalpy, simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Y. Zheng, M. Busi, A. F. Pedersen, M. A. Beltran, C. Gundlach

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X-ray phase contrast imaging has shown to yield a better contrast compared to conventional attenuation X-ray imaging, especially for soft tissues in the medical imaging energy range. This can potentially lead to better diagnosis for patients. However, phase contrast imaging has mainly been performed using highly brilliant Synchrotron radiation, as it requires high coherence X-rays. Many research teams have demonstrated that it is also feasible using a laboratory source, bringing it one step closer to clinical use. Nevertheless, the requirement of fine gratings and high precision stepping motors when using a laboratory source prevents it from being widely used. Recently, a random phase object has been proposed as an analyzer. This method requires a much less robust experimental setup. However, previous studies were done using a particular X-ray source (liquid-metal jet micro-focus source) or high precision motors for stepping. We have been working on a much simpler setup with just small modification of a commercial bench-top micro-CT (computed tomography) scanner, by introducing a piece of sandpaper as the phase analyzer in front of the X-ray source. However, it needs a suitable algorithm for speckle tracking and 3D reconstructions. The precision and sensitivity of speckle tracking algorithm determine the resolution of the system, while the 3D reconstruction algorithm will affect the minimum number of projections required, thus limiting the temporal resolution. As phase contrast imaging methods usually require much longer exposure time than traditional absorption based X-ray imaging technologies, a dynamic phase contrast micro-CT with a high temporal resolution is particularly challenging. Different reconstruction methods, including neural network based techniques, will be evaluated in this project to increase the temporal resolution of the phase contrast micro-CT. A Monte Carlo ray tracing simulation (McXtrace) was used to generate a large dataset to train the neural network, in order to address the issue that neural networks require large amount of training data to get high-quality reconstructions.

Keywords: micro-ct, neural networks, reconstruction, speckle-based x-ray phase contrast

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Rudolf Hrach, Stanislav Novak, Vera Hrachova

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Composite and nanocomposite films represent the class of promising materials and are often objects of the study due to their mechanical, electrical and other properties. The most interesting ones are probably the composite metal/dielectric structures consisting of a metal component embedded in an oxide or polymer matrix. Behaviour of composite films varies with the amount of the metal component inside what is called filling factor. The structures contain individual metal particles or nanoparticles completely insulated by the dielectric matrix for small filling factors and the films have more or less dielectric properties. The conductivity of the films increases with increasing filling factor and finally a transition into metallic state occurs. The behaviour of composite films near a percolation threshold, where the change of charge transport mechanism from a thermally-activated tunnelling between individual metal objects to an ohmic conductivity is observed, is especially important. Physical properties of composite films are given not only by the concentration of metal component but also by the spatial and size distributions of metal objects which are influenced by a technology used. In our contribution, a study of composite structures with the help of methods of computational physics was performed. The study consists of two parts: -Generation of simulated composite and nanocomposite films. The techniques based on hard-sphere or soft-sphere models as well as on atomic modelling are used here. Characterizations of prepared composite structures by image analysis of their sections or projections follow then. However, the analysis of various morphological methods must be performed as the standard algorithms based on the theory of mathematical morphology lose their sensitivity when applied to composite films. -The charge transport in the composites was studied by the kinetic Monte Carlo method as there is a close connection between structural and electric properties of composite and nanocomposite films. It was found that near the percolation threshold the paths of tunnel current forms so-called fuzzy clusters. The main aim of the present study was to establish the correlation between morphological properties of composites/nanocomposites and structures of conducting paths in them in the dependence on the technology of composite films.

Keywords: composite films, computer modelling, image analysis, nanocomposite films

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Authors: Shreyas Srinivas Rangan, Jurgis Porins

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The internet traffic has increased exponentially due to the high demand for data rates by the users, and the constantly increasing metro networks and access networks are focused on improving the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks. One of the common methods to improve the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks at the component level is to use broadband optical amplifiers. The Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier (EDFA) provides high amplification with low noise figure but due to the characteristics of EDFA, its operation is limited to C-band and L-band. In contrast, the Raman amplifier exhibits a wide amplification spectrum, and negative noise figure values can be achieved. To obtain such results, high powered pumping sources are required. Operating Raman amplifiers with such high-powered optical sources may cause fire hazards and it may damage the optical system. In this paper, we implement a hybrid optical amplifier configuration. EDFA and Raman amplifiers are used in this hybrid setup to combine the advantages of both EDFA and Raman amplifiers to improve the reach of the system. Using this setup, we analyze the maximum transmit distance of the network by obtaining a correlation diagram between the length of the single-mode fiber (SMF) and the Bit Error Rate (BER). This hybrid amplifier configuration is implemented in a Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) system with a BER of 10⁻⁹ by using NRZ modulation format, and the gain uniformity noise ratio (signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)), the efficiency of the pumping source, and the optical signal gain efficiency of the amplifier are studied experimentally in a mathematical modelling environment. Numerical simulations were implemented in RSoft OptSim simulation software based on the nonlinear Schrödinger equation using the Split-Step method, the Fourier transform, and the Monte Carlo method for estimating BER.

Keywords: Raman amplifier, erbium doped fibre amplifier, bit error rate, hybrid optical amplifiers

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Authors: Alina Muradyan, Lina Babayan, Arsen Nanyan, Gohar Galstyan, Vigen Khachatryan

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We present a photometric method for identifying stars, galaxies and quasars in multi-color surveys, which uses a library of ∼> 65000 color templates for comparison with observed objects. The method aims for extracting the information content of object colors in a statistically correct way, and performs a classification as well as a redshift estimation for galaxies and quasars in a unified approach based on the same probability density functions. For the redshift estimation, we employ an advanced version of the Minimum Error Variance estimator which determines the redshift error from the redshift dependent probability density function itself. The method was originally developed for the Calar Alto Deep Imaging Survey (CADIS), but is now used in a wide variety of survey projects. We checked its performance by spectroscopy of CADIS objects, where the method provides high reliability (6 errors among 151 objects with R < 24), especially for the quasar selection, and redshifts accurate within σz ≈ 0.03 for galaxies and σz ≈ 0.1 for quasars. For an optimization of future survey efforts, a few model surveys are compared, which are designed to use the same total amount of telescope time but different sets of broad-band and medium-band filters. Their performance is investigated by Monte-Carlo simulations as well as by analytic evaluation in terms of classification and redshift estimation. If photon noise were the only error source, broad-band surveys and medium-band surveys should perform equally well, as long as they provide the same spectral coverage. In practice, medium-band surveys show superior performance due to their higher tolerance for calibration errors and cosmic variance. Finally, we discuss the relevance of color calibration and derive important conclusions for the issues of library design and choice of filters. The calibration accuracy poses strong constraints on an accurate classification, which are most critical for surveys with few, broad and deeply exposed filters, but less severe for surveys with many, narrow and less deep filters.

Keywords: VO, ArVO, DFBS, FITS, image processing, data analysis

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Authors: Savannah Rugg, Carlo Moreno, Pushpa Soti, Alexis Racelis

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Situated in deep South Texas, the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) is considered one the most productive agricultural regions in the southern US. With the highest concentration of organic farms in the state (Hidalgo county), the LRGV has a strong potential to be leaders in sustainable agriculture. Finding management practices that comply with organic certification and increase the health of the agroecosytem and the farmers working the land is increasingly pertinent. Cover cropping, or the intentional planting of non-cash crop vegetation, can serve multiple functions in an agroecosystem by decreasing environmental pollutants that originate from the agroecosystem, reducing inputs needed for crop production, and potentially decreasing on-farm costs for farmers—overall increasing the sustainability of the farm. Use of cover crops on otherwise fallow lands have shown to enhance ecosystem services such as: attracting native beneficial insects (pollinators), increase nutrient availability in topsoil, prevent nutrient leaching, increase soil organic matter, and reduces soil erosion. In this study, four cover crops (Lablab, Sudan Grass, Sunn Hemp, and Pearl Millet) were analyzed in the subtropical region of south Texas to see how their multiple functions enhance ecosystem services. The four cover crops were assessed to see their potential to harbor native insects, their potential to increase soil nitrogen, to increase soil organic matter, and to suppress weeds. The preliminary results suggest that these subtropical varieties of cover crops have potential to enhance ecosystem services on agricultural land in the RGV by increasing soil organic matter (in all varieties), increasing nitrogen in topsoil (Lablab, Sunn Hemp), and reducing weeds (Sudan Grass).

Keywords: cover crops, ecosystem services, subtropical agriculture, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Lizeth Fuentes-Mera, Vanessa Perez-Silos, Nidia K. Moncada-Saucedo, Alejandro Garcia-Ruiz, Alberto Camacho, Jorge Lara-Arias, Ivan Marino-Martinez, Victor Romero-Diaz, Adolfo Soto-Dominguez, Humberto Rodriguez-Rocha, Hang Lin, Victor Pena-Martinez

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Biphasic scaffolds in cartilage tissue engineering have been designed to influence not only the recapitulation of the osteochondral architecture but also to take advantage of the healing ability of bone to promote the implant integration with the surrounding tissue and then bone restoration and cartilage regeneration. This study reports the development and characterization of a biphasic scaffold based on the assembly of a cartilage phase constituted by fibroin biofunctionalized with bovine cartilage matrix; cellularized with differentiated pre-chondrocytes from adipose tissue stem cells (autologous) and well attached to a bone phase (bone bovine decellularized) to mimic the structure of the nature of native tissue and to promote the cartilage regeneration in a model of joint damage in pigs. Biphasic scaffolds were assembled by fibroin crystallization with methanol. The histological and ultrastructural architectures were evaluated by optical and scanning electron microscopy respectively. Mechanical tests were conducted to evaluate Young's modulus of the implant. For the biological evaluation, pre-chondrocytes were loaded onto the scaffolds and cellular adhesion, proliferation, and gene expression analysis of cartilage extracellular matrix components was performed. The scaffolds that were cellularized and matured for 10 days were implanted into critical 3 mm in diameter and 9-mm in depth osteochondral defects in a porcine model (n=4). Three treatments were applied per knee: Group 1: monophasic cellular scaffold (MS) (single chondral phase), group 2: biphasic scaffold, cellularized only in the chondral phase (BS1), group 3: BS cellularized in both bone and chondral phases (BS2). Simultaneously, a control without treatment was evaluated. After 4 weeks of surgery, integration and regeneration tissues were analyzed by x-rays, histology and immunohistochemistry evaluation. The mechanical assessment showed that the acellular biphasic composites exhibited Young's modulus of 805.01 kPa similar to native cartilage (400-800 kPa). In vitro biological studies revealed the chondroinductive ability of the biphasic implant, evidenced by an increase in sulfated glycosaminoglycan (GAGs) and type II collagen, both secreted by the chondrocytes cultured on the scaffold during 28 days. No evidence of adverse or inflammatory reactions was observed in the in vivo trial; however, In group 1, the defects were not reconstructed. In group 2 and 3 a good integration of the implant with the surrounding tissue was observed. Defects in group 2 were fulfilled by hyaline cartilage and normal bone. Group 3 defects showed fibrous repair tissue. In conclusion; our findings demonstrated the efficacy of biphasic and bioactive scaffold based on silk fibroin, which entwined chondroinductive features and biomechanical capability with appropriate integration with the surrounding tissue, representing a promising alternative for osteochondral tissue-engineering applications.

Keywords: biphasic scaffold, extracellular cartilage matrix, silk fibroin, osteochondral tissue engineering

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Authors: Mohamed Dhouibi, Bogdan Stirbu, Chabotier André, Marc Pirlot

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Internal barrel wear is a major factor affecting the performance of small caliber guns in their different life phases. Wear analysis is, therefore, a very important process for understanding how wear occurs, where it takes place, and how it spreads with the aim on improving the accuracy and effectiveness of small caliber weapons. This paper discusses the measurement and analysis of combustion chamber wear for a small-caliber gun using a Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM). Initially, two different NATO small caliber guns: 5.56x45mm and 7.62x51mm, are considered. A Micura Zeiss Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) equipped with the VAST XTR gold high-end sensor is used to measure the inner profile of the two guns every 300-shot cycle. The CMM parameters, such us (i) the measuring force, (ii) the measured points, (iii) the time of masking, and (iv) the scanning velocity, are investigated. In order to ensure minimum measurement error, a statistical analysis is adopted to select the reliable CMM parameters combination. Next, two measurement strategies are developed to capture the shape and the volume of each gun chamber. Thus, a task-specific measurement uncertainty (TSMU) analysis is carried out for each measurement plan. Different approaches of TSMU evaluation have been proposed in the literature. This paper discusses two different techniques. The first is the substitution method described in ISO 15530 part 3. This approach is based on the use of calibrated workpieces with similar shape and size as the measured part. The second is the Monte Carlo simulation method presented in ISO 15530 part 4. Uncertainty evaluation software (UES), also known as the Virtual Coordinate Measuring Machine (VCMM), is utilized in this technique to perform a point-by-point simulation of the measurements. To conclude, a comparison between both approaches is performed. Finally, the results of the measurements are verified through calibrated gauges of several dimensions specially designed for the two barrels. On this basis, an experimental database is developed for further analysis aiming to quantify the relationship between the volume of wear and the muzzle velocity of small caliber guns.

Keywords: coordinate measuring machine, measurement uncertainty, erosion and wear volume, small caliber guns

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Authors: Jorge Ferro-Diaz, Lazaro Marquez-Llauger, Jose Alberto Camejo-Lamas, Lazaro Marquez-Govea

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The invasion of Scaevola sericea Vahl (Goodeniaceae) in Cuba is a recent process, this exotic invasive species was reported for the first time, in the national territory, by 2008. S. sericea is native to the coasts around the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, common on sandy beaches; it has expanded rapidly around the planet by either natural or anthropic causes, mainly due to its use in hotel gardening. Cuba is highly vulnerable to the colonization of these species, mainly due to tropical hurricanes which have increased in the last decades; it also affects other native species such as Tournefortia gnaphalodes (L.) R. Br. (Boraginaceae) that show invasive manifestations because of the unbalanced state of demographic processes of littoral vegetation, which has been studied by authors during the last 10 years. The fast development of Cuban tourism has encouraged the use of exotic species in gardening that invade large sectors of sandy coasts. Taking into account the importance of assessing the impacts dimensions and adopting effective control measures, a monitoring program for the invasion of S. sericea in Cuba was undertaken. The program has been implemented since 2013 and the main objective was to identify invasive patterns and interactions with other native species of coastal vegetation. This experience also aimed to validate the design and propose a standardized monitoring protocol to be applied throughout the country. In the Cuban territory, 12 sites were chosen, where there were established 24 permanent plots of 100 m2; measurements were taken twice a year taking into consideration variables such as abundance, plant height, soil cover, flora and companion vegetation, density and frequency; other physical variables of the beaches were also measured. Similarly, for associated individuals of T. gnaphalodes, the same variables were measured. The results of these first four years allowed us to document patterns of S. sericea invasion, highlighting the use of adventitious roots to enhance their colonization, and to characterize demographic indicators, ecosystem affections, and interactions with native plants. A density-dependent relationship with T. gnaphalodes was documented, finding a controlling effect on S. sericea, so that a manipulation experiment was applied to evaluate possible management actions to be incorporated in the Plans of the protected areas involved. With these results, it was concluded, for the evaluated sites, that S. sericea has had an invasion dynamics ruled by effects of coastal dynamics, more intense in beaches with affectations to the native vegetation, and more controlled in beaches with more preserved vegetation. It was found that when S. sericea is established, the mechanism that most reinforces its invasion is the use of adventitious roots, used to expand the patches and colonize beach sectors. It was also found that when the density of T. gnaphalodes increases, it detains the expansion of S. sericea and reduces its colonization possibilities, behaving as a natural controller of its biological invasion. The results include a proposal of a new Monitoring Protocol for Scaevola sericea in Cuba, with the possibility of extending its implementation to other countries in the region.

Keywords: biological invasion, exotic invasive species, plant interactions, Scaevola sericea

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: Xinrong Zong, Tao Zhang

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Macau is known as the Oriental Monte Carlo and its economy depends on gambling heavily. The dealer is the key position of the gambling industry, at the end of the fourth quarter of 2015, there were over 24,000 dealers among the 56,000 full-time employees in gambling industry. More than half of dealers were female. The dealer is also called 'Croupier', the main responsibilities of them are shuffling, dealing, processing chips, rolling dice game and inspecting play. Due to the limited land and small population of Macao, the government has not allowed hiring foreign domestic dealers since Macao developed temporary gambling industry. Therefore, local dealers enjoy special advantages but also bear the high stresses from work. From the middle of last year, with the reduced income of gambling, and the decline of mainland gamblers as well as VIP lounges, the working time of dealers increased greatly. Thus, many problems occurred in this condition, such as the rise of working pressures, psychological pressures and family-responsibility pressures, which may affect job satisfaction as well. Because of the less research of dealer satisfaction, and a lack of standing on feminine perspective to analyze female dealers, this study will focus on investigating the relationship between working pressure and job satisfaction from feminine view. Several issues will be discussed specifically: firstly, to understand current situation of the working pressures and job satisfactions of female dealers in different ages; secondly, to research if there is any relevance between working pressures and job satisfactions of female dealers in different ages; thirdly, to find out the relationship between dealers' working pressures and job satisfactions in different ages. This paper combined qualitative approach with quantitative approach selected samples by convenient sampling. The research showed the female dealers from diverse ages have different kinds of working pressures; second, job satisfactions of the female dealers in different ages are dissimilar; moreover, there is negative correlation between working pressure and job satisfaction of female dealer in different ages' groups; last but not the least, working pressure has a significant negative impact on job satisfaction. The research result will provide a reference value for the Macau gambling business. It is a pattern to improve dealers' working environment, to increase employees' job satisfaction, as well as to offer tourists a better service, which can help to attract more and more visitors from a good image of Macau gaming and tourism.

Keywords: female dealers, job satisfaction, working pressure, Macau

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Alberto Azevedo, Ricardo Martins, André B. Fortunato, Anabela Oliveira

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Water is under severe threat today because of the rising population, increased agricultural and industrial needs, and the intensifying effects of climate change. Due to sea-level rise, erosion, and demographic pressure, the coastal regions are of significant concern to the scientific community. The Water Monitoring Sentinel Cloud platform (WORSICA) service is focused on providing new tools for monitoring water in coastal and inland areas, taking advantage of remote sensing, in situ and tidal modeling data. WORSICA is a service that can be used to determine the coastline, coastal inundation areas, and the limits of inland water bodies using remote sensing (satellite and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - UAVs) and in situ data (from field surveys). It applies to various purposes, from determining flooded areas (from rainfall, storms, hurricanes, or tsunamis) to detecting large water leaks in major water distribution networks. This service was built on components developed in national and European projects, integrated to provide a one-stop-shop service for remote sensing information, integrating data from the Copernicus satellite and drone/unmanned aerial vehicles, validated by existing online in-situ data. Since WORSICA is operational using the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC) computational infrastructures, the service can be accessed via a web browser and is freely available to all European public research groups without additional costs. In addition, the private sector will be able to use the service, but some usage costs may be applied, depending on the type of computational resources needed by each application/user. Although the service has three main sub-services i) coastline detection; ii) inland water detection; iii) water leak detection in irrigation networks, in the present study, an application of the service to Óbidos lagoon in Portugal is shown, where the user can monitor the evolution of the lagoon inlet and estimate the topography of the intertidal areas without any additional costs. The service has several distinct methodologies implemented based on the computations of the water indexes (e.g., NDWI, MNDWI, AWEI, and AWEIsh) retrieved from the satellite image processing. In conjunction with the tidal data obtained from the FES model, the system can estimate a coastline with the corresponding level or even topography of the inter-tidal areas based on the Flood2Topo methodology. The outcomes of the WORSICA service can be helpful for several intervention areas such as i) emergency by providing fast access to inundated areas to support emergency rescue operations; ii) support of management decisions on hydraulic infrastructures operation to minimize damage downstream; iii) climate change mitigation by minimizing water losses and reduce water mains operation costs; iv) early detection of water leakages in difficult-to-access water irrigation networks, promoting their fast repair.

Keywords: remote sensing, coastline detection, water detection, satellite data, sentinel, Copernicus, EOSC

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Maria Zulema Morquecho Vega, Fabiola CarolinaMiranda Castro, Rafael Verdugo Miranda, Ignacio Yocupicio Villegas, Ana lidia Barron Raygoza, Martin enrique MArquez Cordova, Jose Alberto Duarte Moller

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Background: Anemopsis californica, also called (tame grass) belongs to the Saururaceae family small, green plant. The blade is long and wide. Gives a white flower. The plant population is only found in humid, swampy habitats, it grows where there is water, along the banks of streams and water holes. In the winter, it dries up. The leaves, rhizomes, or roots of this plant have been used to treat a range of diseases. Some of its healing properties are used to treat wounds, cold and flu symptoms, spasmodic cough, infection, pain and inflammation, burns, swollen feet, as well as lung ailments, asthma, circulatory problems (varicose veins), rheumatoid arthritis, purifies blood, helps in urinary and digestive tract diseases, sores and healing, for headache, sore throat, diarrhea, kidney pain. The tea made from the leaves and roots is used to treat uterine cancer, womb cancer, relieves menstrual pain and stops excessive bleeding after childbirth. It is also used as a gynecological treatment for infections, hemorrhoids, candidiasis and vaginitis. Objective: To study the cytotoxicity of gels prepared with silver nanoparticles in AC extract combined with chitosan, collagen and hyaluronic acid as an alternative therapy for skin conditions. Methods: The Ag NPs were synthesized according to the following method. A 0.3 mg/mL solution is prepared in 10 ml of deionized water, adjust to pH 12 with NaOH, stirring is maintained constant magnetic and a temperature of 80 °C. Subsequently, 100 ul of a 0.1 M AgNO3 solution and kept stirring constantly for 15 min. Once the reaction is complete, measurements are performed by UV-Vis. A gel was prepared in a 5% solution of acetic acid with the respective nanoparticles and AC extract of silver in the extract of AC. Chitosan is added until the process begins to occur gel. At that time, collagen will be added in a ratio of 3 to 5 drops, and later, hyaluronic acid in 2% of the total compound formed. Finally, after resting for 24 hours, the cytotoxic effect of the gels was studied. in the presence of highly positive bacteria Staphylococcus aureus and highly negative for Escherichia coli. Cultures will be incubated for 24 hours in the presence of the compound and compared with the reference. Results: Silver nanoparticles obtained had a spherical shape and sizes among 20 and 30 nm. UV-Vis spectra confirm the presence of silver nanoparticles showing a surface plasmon around 420 nm. Finally, the test in presence of bacteria yield a good antibacterial property of this nanocompound and tests in people were successful. Conclusion: Gel prepared by biogenic synthesis shown beneficious effects in severe acne, acne vulgaris and wound healing with diabetic patients.

Keywords: anemopsis californica, nanomedicina, biotechnology, biomedicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Ricardo Alberto Chiong Zevallos, Eduardo Moraes Rego Reis

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Pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients have a less than 10% 5-year survival rate. PDAC has no defined diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers. Gemcitabine is the first-line drug in PDAC and several other cancers. Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) contribute to the tumorigenesis and are potential biomarkers for PDAC. Although lncRNAs aren’t translated into proteins, they have important functions. LncRNAs can decoy or recruit proteins from the epigenetic machinery, act as microRNA sponges, participate in protein translocation through different cellular compartments, and even promote chemoresistance. The chromatin remodeling enzyme EZH2 is a histone methyltransferase that catalyzes the methylation of histone 3 at lysine 27, silencing local expression. EZH2 is ambivalent, it can also activate gene expression independently of its histone methyltransferase activity. EZH2 is overexpressed in several cancers and interacts with lncRNAs, being recruited to a specific locus. EZH2 can be recruited to activate an oncogene or silence a tumor suppressor. The lncRNAs misregulation in cancer can result in the differential recruitment of EZH2 and in a distinct epigenetic landscape, promoting chemoresistance. The relevance of the EZH2-lncRNAs interaction to chemoresistant PDAC was assessed by Real Time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) and RNA Immunoprecipitation (RIP) experiments with naïve and gemcitabine-resistant PDAC cells. The expression of several lncRNAs and EZH2 gene targets was evaluated contrasting naïve and resistant cells. Selection of candidate genes was made by bioinformatic analysis and literature curation. Indeed, the resistant cell line showed higher expression of chemoresistant-associated lncRNAs and protein coding genes. RIP detected lncRNAs interacting with EZH2 with varying intensity levels in the cell lines. During RIP, the nuclear fraction of the cells was incubated with an antibody for EZH2 and with magnetic beads. The RNA precipitated with the beads-antibody-EZH2 complex was isolated and reverse transcribed. The presence of candidate lncRNAs was detected by RT-qPCR, and the enrichment was calculated relative to INPUT (total lysate control sample collected before RIP). The enrichment levels varied across the several lncRNAs and cell lines. The EZH2-lncRNA interaction might be responsible for the regulation of chemoresistance-associated genes in multiple cancers. The relevance of the lncRNA-EZH2 interaction to PDAC was assessed by siRNA knockdown of a lncRNA, followed by the analysis of the EZH2 target expression by RT-qPCR. The chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) of EZH2 and H3K27me3 followed by RT-qPCR with primers for EZH2 targets also assess the specificity of the EZH2 recruitment by the lncRNA. This is the first report of the interaction of EZH2 and lncRNAs HOTTIP and PVT1 in chemoresistant PDAC. HOTTIP and PVT1 were described as promoting chemoresistance in several cancers, but the role of EZH2 is not clarified. For the first time, the lncRNA LINC01133 was detected in a chemoresistant cancer. The interaction of EZH2 with LINC02577, LINC00920, LINC00941, and LINC01559 have never been reported in any context. The novel lncRNAs-EZH2 interactions regulate chemoresistant-associated genes in PDAC and might be relevant to other cancers. Therapies targeting EZH2 alone weren’t successful, and a combinatorial approach also targeting the lncRNAs interacting with it might be key to overcome chemoresistance in several cancers.

Keywords: epigenetics, chemoresistance, long non-coding RNAs, pancreatic cancer, histone modification

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Mike T. Wei, Douglas N. Mintz, Lisa A. Mandl, Arielle W. Fein, Jayme C. Burket, Yuo-Yu Lee, Wei-Ti Huang, Vivian P. Bykerk, Mark P. Figgie, Edward F. Di Carlo, Bruce N. Cronstein, Susan M. Goodman

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Background/Purpose: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have excellent total hip arthroplasty (THA) survival, and methotrexate (MTX), an anti-inflammatory disease modifying drug which may affect bone reabsorption, may play a role. The purpose of this study is to determine the diagnosis leading to revision THA (rTHA) in RA patients and to assess the association of radiographic lucency with MTX use. Methods: All patients with validated diagnosis of RA in the institution’s THA registry undergoing rTHA from May 2007 - February 2011 were eligible. Diagnosis leading to rTHA and medication use was determined by chart review. Osteolysis was evaluated on available radiographs by measuring maximum lucency in each Gruen zone. Differences within RA patients with/without MTX in osteolysis, demographics, and medications were assessed with chi-squared, Fisher's exact tests or Mann-Whitney U tests as appropriate. The error rate for multiple comparisons of lucency in the different Gruen zones was corrected via false discovery rate methods. A secondary analysis was performed to determine differences in diagnoses leading to revision between RA and matched OA controls (2:1 match by sex age +/- 5 years). OA exclusion criteria included presence of rheumatic diseases, use of MTX, and lack of records. Results: 51 RA rTHA were identified and compared with 103 OA. Mean age for RA was 57.7 v 59.4 years for OA (p = 0.240). 82.4% RA were female v 83.5% OA (p = 0.859). RA had lower BMI than OA (25.5 v 28.2; p = 0.166). There was no difference in diagnosis leading to rTHA, including infection (RA 3.9 v OA 6.8%; p = 0.719) or dislocation (RA 23.5 v OA 23.3%; p = 0.975). There was no significant difference in the length of time the implant was in before revision: RA 11.0 v OA 8.8 years (p = 0.060). Among RA with/without MTX, there was no difference in use of biologics (30.0 v 43.3%, p = 0.283), steroids (47.6 v 50.0%, p = 0.867) or bisphosphonates (23.8 v 33.3%, p = 0.543). There was no difference in rTHA diagnosis with/without MTX, including loosening (52.4 v 56.7%, p = 0.762). There was no significant difference in lucencies with MTX use in any Gruen zone. Patients with MTX had femoral stem subsidence of 3.7mm v no subsidence without MTX (p = 0.006). Conclusion: There was no difference in the diagnosis leading to rTHR in RA and OA, although RA trended longer prior to rTHA. In this small retrospective study, there were no significant differences associated with MTX exposure or radiographic lucency among RA patients. The significance of subsidence is not clear. Further study of arthroplasty survival in RA patients is warranted.

Keywords: hip arthroplasty, methotrexate, revision arthroplasty, rheumatoid arthritis

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Rui Pedro de Sousa Guimarães Ferreira, Carlos Alberto Maia Domínguez

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Despite the ambitions to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, to fulfill the Paris Agreement's goals, the building and construction sector remains one of the most resource-intensive and greenhouse gas-emitting industries in the world, accounting for 40% of worldwide CO ₂ emissions. Over the past few decades, globalization and population growth have led to an exponential rise in demand in the housing market and, by extension, in the building industry. Considering this housing crisis, it is obvious that we will not stop building in the near future. However, the transition, which has already started, is challenging and complex because it calls for the worldwide participation of numerous organizations in altering how building systems, which have been a part of our everyday existence for over a century, are used. Wood is one of the alternatives that is most frequently used nowadays (under responsible forestry conditions) because of its physical qualities and, most importantly, because it produces fewer carbon emissions during manufacturing than steel or concrete. Furthermore, as wood retains its capacity to store CO ₂ after application and throughout the life of the building, working as a natural carbon filter, it helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. After a century-long focus on other materials, in the last few decades, technological advancements have made it possible to innovate systems centered around the use of wood. However, there are still some questions that require further exploration. It is necessary to standardize production and manufacturing processes based on prefabrication and modularization principles to achieve greater precision and optimization of the solutions, decreasing building time, prices, and waste from raw materials. In addition, this approach will make it possible to develop new architectural solutions to solve the rigidity and irreversibility of buildings, two of the most important issues facing housing today. Most current models are still created as inflexible, fixed, monofunctional structures that discourage any kind of regeneration, based on matrices that sustain the conventional family's traditional model and are founded on rigid, impenetrable compartmentalization. Adaptability and flexibility in housing are, and always have been, necessities and key components of architecture. People today need to constantly adapt to their surroundings and themselves because of the fast-paced, disposable, and quickly obsolescent nature of modern items. Migrations on a global scale, different kinds of co-housing, or even personal changes are some of the new questions that buildings have to answer. Designing with the reversibility of construction systems and materials in mind not only allows for the concept of "looping" in construction, with environmental advantages that enable the development of a circular economy in the sector but also unleashes multiple social benefits. In this sense, it is imperative to develop prefabricated and modular construction systems able to address the formalization of a reversible proposition that adjusts to the scale of time and its multiple reformulations, many of which are unpredictable. We must allow buildings to change, grow, or shrink over their lifetime, respecting their nature and, finally, the nature of the people living in them. It´s the ability to anticipate the unexpected, adapt to social factors, and take account of demographic shifts in society to stabilize communities, the foundation of real innovative sustainability.

Keywords: modular, timber, flexibility, housing

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 377

Authors: Andreea Halunga, Chris D. Orme, Takashi Yamagata

Abstract:

This paper proposes a heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test of the null hypothesis of zero cross-section (or contemporaneous) correlation in linear panel-data models, without necessarily assuming independence of the cross-sections. The procedure allows for either fixed, strictly exogenous and/or lagged dependent regressor variables, as well as quite general forms of both non-normality and heteroskedasticity in the error distribution. The asymptotic validity of the test procedure is predicated on the number of time series observations, T, being large relative to the number of cross-section units, N, in that: (i) either N is fixed as T→∞; or, (ii) N²/T→0, as both T and N diverge, jointly, to infinity. Given this, it is not expected that asymptotic theory would provide an adequate guide to finite sample performance when T/N is "small". Because of this, we also propose and establish asymptotic validity of, a number of wild bootstrap schemes designed to provide improved inference when T/N is small. Across a variety of experimental designs, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the predictions from asymptotic theory do, in fact, provide a good guide to the finite sample behaviour of the test when T is large relative to N. However, when T and N are of similar orders of magnitude, discrepancies between the nominal and empirical significance levels occur as predicted by the first-order asymptotic analysis. On the other hand, for all the experimental designs, the proposed wild bootstrap approximations do improve agreement between nominal and empirical significance levels, when T/N is small, with a recursive-design wild bootstrap scheme performing best, in general, and providing quite close agreement between the nominal and empirical significance levels of the test even when T and N are of similar size. Moreover, in comparison with the wild bootstrap "version" of the original Breusch-Pagan test our experiments indicate that the corresponding version of the heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test appears reliable. As an illustration, the proposed tests are applied to a dynamic growth model for a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Keywords: cross-section correlation, time-series heteroskedasticity, dynamic panel data, heteroskedasticity robust Breusch-Pagan test

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Authors: Rajesh Karki, Safal Bhattarai, Saket Adhikari

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Reliable and economic operation of power systems are becoming extremely challenging with large scale integration of renewable energy sources due to the intermittency and uncertainty associated with renewable power generation. It is, therefore, important to make a quantitative risk assessment and explore the potential resources to mitigate such risks. Probabilistic models for different energy storage systems (ESS), such as the flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and the compressed air energy storage (CAES) incorporating specific charge/discharge performance and failure characteristics suitable for probabilistic risk assessment in power system operation and planning are presented in this paper. The proposed methodology used in FESS modelling offers flexibility to accommodate different configurations of plant topology. It is perceived that CAES has a high potential for grid-scale application, and a hybrid approach is proposed, which embeds a Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method in an analytical technique to develop a suitable reliability model of the CAES. The proposed ESS models are applied to a test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the energy storage technologies in system operation and planning, as well as to assess their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios. A comparative study considering various storage system topologies are also presented. The impacts of failure rates of the critical components of ESS on the expected state of charge (SOC) and the performance of the different types of ESS during operation are illustrated with selected studies on the test system. The paper also applies the proposed models on the test system to investigate the economic and reliability benefits of the different ESS technologies and to evaluate their contributions in facilitating wind integration during different operating scenarios and system configurations. The conclusions drawn from the study results provide valuable information to help policymakers, system planners, and operators in arriving at effective and efficient policies, investment decisions, and operating strategies for planning and operation of power systems with large penetrations of renewable energy sources.

Keywords: flywheel energy storage, compressed air energy storage, power system reliability, renewable energy, system planning, system operation

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

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Authors: Alberto Fina, Samuele Colonna, Maria del Mar Bernal, Orietta Monticelli, Mauro Tortello, Renato Gonnelli, Julio Gomez, Chiara Novara, Guido Saracco

Abstract:

Thermally conductive polymer nanocomposites are of high interest for several applications including low-temperature heat recovery, heat exchangers in a corrosive environment and heat management in electronics and flexible electronics. In this paper, the preparation of thermally conductive nanocomposites exploiting graphene-related materials is addressed, along with their thermal characterization. In particular, correlations between 1- chemical and physical features of the nanoflakes and 2- processing conditions with the heat conduction properties of nanocomposites is studied. Polymers are heat insulators; therefore, the inclusion of conductive particles is the typical solution to obtain a sufficient thermal conductivity. In addition to traditional microparticles such as graphite and ceramics, several nanoparticles have been proposed, including carbon nanotubes and graphene, for the use in polymer nanocomposites. Indeed, thermal conductivities for both carbon nanotubes and graphenes were reported in the wide range of about 1500 to 6000 W/mK, despite such property may decrease dramatically as a function of the size, number of layers, the density of topological defects, re-hybridization defects as well as on the presence of impurities. Different synthetic techniques have been developed, including mechanical cleavage of graphite, epitaxial growth on SiC, chemical vapor deposition, and liquid phase exfoliation. However, the industrial scale-up of graphene, defined as an individual, single-atom-thick sheet of hexagonally arranged sp2-bonded carbons still remains very challenging. For large scale bulk applications in polymer nanocomposites, some graphene-related materials such as multilayer graphenes (MLG), reduced graphene oxide (rGO) or graphite nanoplatelets (GNP) are currently the most interesting graphene-based materials. In this paper, different types of graphene-related materials were characterized for their chemical/physical as well as for thermal properties of individual flakes. Two selected rGOs were annealed at 1700°C in vacuum for 1 h to reduce defectiveness of the carbon structure. Thermal conductivity increase of individual GNP with annealing was assessed via scanning thermal microscopy. Graphene nano papers were prepared from both conventional RGO and annealed RGO flakes. Characterization of the nanopapers evidenced a five-fold increase in the thermal diffusivity on the nano paper plane for annealed nanoflakes, compared to pristine ones, demonstrating the importance of structural defectiveness reduction to maximize the heat dissipation performance. Both pristine and annealed RGO were used to prepare polymer nanocomposites, by melt reactive extrusion. Thermal conductivity showed two- to three-fold increase in the thermal conductivity of the nanocomposite was observed for high temperature treated RGO compared to untreated RGO, evidencing the importance of using low defectivity nanoflakes. Furthermore, the study of different processing paremeters (time, temperature, shear rate) during the preparation of poly (butylene terephthalate) nanocomposites evidenced a clear correlation with the dispersion and fragmentation of the GNP nanoflakes; which in turn affected the thermal conductivity performance. Thermal conductivity of about 1.7 W/mK, i.e. one order of magnitude higher than for pristine polymer, was obtained with 10%wt of annealed GNPs, which is in line with state of the art nanocomposites prepared by more complex and less upscalable in situ polymerization processes.

Keywords: graphene, graphene-related materials, scanning thermal microscopy, thermally conductive polymer nanocomposites

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Omer Burak Iskender, Keck Voon Ling, Vincent Dubanchet, Luca Simonini

Abstract:

This paper presents Guidance and Control (G&C) strategy to approach and synchronize with potentially rotating targets. The proposed strategy generates and tracks a safe trajectory for space servicing missions, including tasks like approaching, inspecting, and capturing. The main objective of this paper is to validate the G&C laws using a Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) setup with realistic rendezvous and docking equipment. Throughout this work, the assumption of full relative state feedback is relaxed by onboard sensors that bring realistic errors and delays and, while the proposed closed loop approach demonstrates the robustness to the above mentioned challenge. Moreover, G&C blocks are unified via the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, and the coupling between translational motion and rotational motion is addressed via dual quaternion based kinematic description. In this work, G&C is formulated as a convex optimization problem where constraints such as thruster limits and the output constraints are explicitly handled. Furthermore, the Monte-Carlo method is used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed method to the initial condition errors, the uncertainty of the target's motion and attitude, and actuator errors. A capture scenario is tested with the robotic test bench that has onboard sensors which estimate the position and orientation of a drifting satellite through camera imagery. Finally, the approach is compared with currently used robust H-infinity controllers and guidance profile provided by the industrial partner. The HIL experiments demonstrate that the proposed strategy is a potential candidate for future space servicing missions because 1) the algorithm is real-time implementable as convex programming offers deterministic convergence properties and guarantee finite time solution, 2) critical physical and output constraints are respected, 3) robustness to sensor errors and uncertainties in the system is proven, 4) couples translational motion with rotational motion.

Keywords: dual quaternion, model predictive control, real-time experimental test, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy, space servicing

Procedia PDF Downloads 127