Search results for: consumer risk

Authors: David Amoah Oduro

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In the ever-evolving terrain of international business, a profound revolution is underway, guided by the swift integration and advancement of disruptive technologies like digital analytics. In today's international business landscape, where competition is fierce, and decisions are data-driven, the essence of this paper lies in offering a tangible roadmap for practitioners. It is a guide that bridges the chasm between theory and actionable insights, helping businesses, investors, and entrepreneurs navigate the complexities of international expansion into sub-Saharan Africa. This practitioner paper distils essential insights, methodologies, and actionable recommendations for businesses seeking to leverage digital analytics in their pursuit of market entry and expansion across the African continent. What sets this paper apart is its unwavering focus on a region ripe with potential: sub-Saharan Africa. The adoption and adaptation of digital analytics are not mere luxuries but essential strategic tools for evaluating countries and entering markets within this dynamic region. With the spotlight firmly fixed on sub-Saharan Africa, the aim is to provide a compelling resource to guide practitioners in their quest to unearth the vast opportunities hidden within sub-Saharan Africa's digital desert. The paper illuminates the pivotal role of digital analytics in providing a data-driven foundation for market entry decisions. It highlights the ability to uncover market trends, consumer behavior, and competitive landscapes. By understanding Africa's incredible diversity, the paper underscores the importance of tailoring market entry strategies to account for unique cultural, economic, and regulatory factors. For practitioners, this paper offers a set of actionable recommendations, including the creation of cross-functional teams, the integration of local expertise, and the cultivation of long-term partnerships to ensure sustainable market entry success. It advocates for a commitment to continuous learning and flexibility in adapting strategies as the African market evolves. This paper represents an invaluable resource for businesses, investors, and entrepreneurs who are keen on unlocking the potential of digital analytics for informed market entry in Africa. It serves as a guiding light, equipping practitioners with the essential tools and insights needed to thrive in this dynamic and diverse continent. With these key insights, methodologies, and recommendations, this paper is a roadmap to prosperous and sustainable market entry in Africa. It is vital for anyone looking to harness the transformational potential of digital analytics to create prosperous and sustainable ventures in a region brimming with promise. In the ever-advancing digital age, this practitioner paper becomes a lodestar, guiding businesses and visionaries toward success amidst the unique challenges and rewards of sub-Saharan Africa's international business landscape.

Keywords: global analytics, digital analytics, sub-Saharan Africa, data analytics

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Authors: Gleyce Assis Da Silva Barbosa

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In recent years, we have witnessed a vertiginous growth of large education companies. Daughters of national and world capital, these companies expand both through consolidated physical networks in the form of branches spread across the territory and through institutional networks such as business networks through mergers, acquisitions, creation of new companies and influence. They do this by incorporating small, medium and large schools and universities, teaching systems and other products and services. They are also able to weave their webs directly or indirectly in philanthropic circles, limited partnerships, family businesses and even in public education through various mechanisms of outsourcing, privatization and commercialization of products for the sector. Although the growth of these groups in basic education seems to us a recent phenomenon in peripheral countries such as Brazil, its diffusion is closely linked to higher education conglomerates and other sectors of the economy forming oligopolies, which began to expand in the 1990s with strong state support and through political reforms that redefined its role, transforming it into a fundamental agent in the formation of guidelines to boost the incorporation of neoliberal logic. This expansion occurred through the objectification of education, commodifying it and transforming students into consumer clients. Financial power combined with the neo-liberalization of state public policies allowed the profusion of social exclusion, the increase of individuals without access to basic services, deindustrialization, automation, capital volatility and the indetermination of the economy; in addition, this process causes capital to be valued and devalued at rates never seen before, which together generates various impacts such as the precariousness of work. Understanding the connection between these processes, which engender the economy, allows us to see their consequences in labor relations and in the territory. In this sense, it is necessary to analyze the geographic-economic context and the role of the facilitating agents of this process, which can give us clues about the ongoing transformations and the directions of education in the national and even international scenario since this process is linked to the multiple scales of financial globalization. Therefore, the present research has the general objective of analyzing the socio-spatial impacts of financialization and the formation of oligopolies in Brazilian basic education. For this, the survey of laws, data, and public policies on the subject in question was used as a methodology. As a methodology, the work was based on some data from these companies available on websites for investors. Survey of information from global and national companies that operate in Brazilian basic education. In addition to mapping the expansion of educational oligopolies using public data on the location of schools. With this, the research intends to provide information about the ongoing commodification process in the country. Discuss the consequences of the oligopolization of education, considering the impacts that financialization can bring to teaching work.

Keywords: financialization, oligopolies, education, Brazil

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Authors: Saroj Bala Grover, Al Munther Alhasawi, Prem N. Sharma, P. S. N. Menon

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Background: Prisoners are considered one of the high-risk populations for the transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Targeting this group is one of the strategies to reduce the incidence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the community. Subjects and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among male inmates in Kuwait’s prison by administering three sets of questionnaires to assess the level of their knowledge and awareness about the mode of transmission of HIV/AIDS, their risky personal behavior that may lead to HIV infection, and the presence of any negative attitudes and stigmatization towards HIV infected individuals. Results: The study included 123 male inmates, with a mean ± SD age of 30.9 ± 8.4 years. Most participants had good general knowledge (90%) about the mode of transmission of HIV/AIDS, including sharing contaminated syringes, risky personal behaviors such as having unprotected sex and increased number of extramarital relationships (66%), and the avoidance of the regular use of condoms. The younger age group (< 35 years) had more extramarital relationships than those > 35 years (71.4% Vs. 46.4%; p=0.016). There was a perceived attitude of stigmatization among inmates towards HIV-infected persons. Conclusions: This vulnerable group of prisoners, especially young adults, need educational programs to improve knowledge about the transmission of HIV and to correct and change their risky personal behaviors to protect themselves and the community against HIV transmission.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Kuwait, prisoners, knowledge, awareness, personal behavior, extramarital relationships, safe sex, discrimination, stigmatization

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Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

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The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

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Authors: Mandlenkosi Richard Mphatheni

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The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (Act 108 of 1996 section 28(1) (d)) states, ‘Every child has the right to be protected from maltreatment, neglect, abuse, and degradation’. Qualitative research studied perceptions of the selected sample. Objectives of the research were to determine factors that influence perpetrators of sexual violence to target children, the risk factors of child sexual abuse, the effects of child sexual abuse on the development of the child, and the community prevention measures to minimize the risks of child sexual abuse. The research aimed to understand perspective and experiences of the Ngangelizwe community members on the problem of sexual violence against children and the perpetrator’s perceived motive for sexually abusing children. Convenience non-probability sampling technique was adopted to select 20 participants within the Ngangelizwe Township at Mthatha. Thematic analyses were used to analyse data. It was found that sexual abuse of children affects severely child and parents, while the community reported to be trivially affected by the sexual abuse of a child. The research revealed ignorance of some forms of sexual violence, as the commonly known form of sexual violence was rape. Therefore, ignorance of community members regarding various forms of sexual abuse means that such acts are either ignored, tolerated, or even regarded as acceptable. It thus means that community members cannot reject any actions or behaviour if they themselves are ignorant of what constitutes sexual violence. This study recommends that communities should be educated about different sexual offenses.

Keywords: child sexual abuse, community, childhood attachment, adult attachment

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Authors: Husham Bayazed, Fatimah Yousif

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Purpose of Presentation: The infant immune system has a reputation for being weak and underdeveloped when compared to the adult immune system, but the comparison isn’t quite fair. At the start, as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on and evolves, many Pediatricians and kids' parents have been left with renewed questions about the consequences and sequel of infection on children and the steps to be taken if their child has the symptoms of COVID-19 or tests positive. Recent Findings Literature reviews and recent studies revealed that children are better than adults at controlling SARS-CoV-2. There was conflicting evidence on age-related differences in ACE2 expression in the nose and lungs. But scientists who measured the ‘viral load’ in children's upper airways have seen no clear difference between children and adults. Moreover, the hypothesis is that kids might be more exposed to other coronaviruses common cold, with a production of ready protective antibodies to lock on to the pandemic coronavirus. But the evidence suggests that adults also have this immunity too. Strikingly, these ‘cross-reactive’ antibodies don’t offer any special protection. Summary One of the few silver linings of the Covid-19 pandemic is that children are relatively spared. The kid's Innate Immunity is hardly the whole story, the innate immune response against SARS-CoV-2 infection is early initiative calm with low immunological tone to prevent an overactive immunity and with rapidly repair damage to the lungs in contrast to stormy waves in adults. Therefore, Kids are at much lower risk of Covid-19 infection, and they are still winning the battle against Covid-19 with their innate immunity.

Keywords: Covid-19, kids, ACE2 receptors, immunity

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Authors: Menglim Hoy, Suksun Horpibulsuk, Arul Arulrajah

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The results of laboratory investigation of recycled asphalt pavement (RAP) – fly ash (FA) based geopolymer as a base material is presented in this paper. An alkaline activator, the mixture of NaOH and Na₂SiO₃, is used to synthesis RAP-FA based geopolymer. RAP-FA with water (RAP-FA blend) prepared as a control material. The strength develops and the strength against wet-dry was determined by the unconfined compression strength (UCS) test, then the microstructural properties were examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis. The toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) test is conducted to measure its leachability of heavy metal. The results show both the RAP-FA blend and geopolymer can be used as a base course as its UCS values meet the minimum strength requirement specified by the Department of Highway, Thailand. The durability test results show the UCS of these materials increases with increasing the number of wet-dry cycles, reaching its peak at six wet-dry cycles. The XRD and SEM analyses indicate strength development of the RAP-FA blend occurs due to chemical reaction between a high Calcium in RAP with a high Silica and Alumina in FA led to producing calcium aluminate hydrate formation. The strength development of the RAP-FA geopolymer occurred resulted from the polymerization reaction. The TCLP results demonstrate there is no environmental risk of these stabilized materials. Furthermore, FA based geopolymer can reduce the leachability of heavy metal in the RAP-FA blend.

Keywords: recycled asphalt pavement, geopolymer, heavy metal, microstructure

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Authors: Rara Wulan Anggareni, Narita Putri, Riski Septianing Astuti

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Breastfeeding is a key to prevent mortality and morbidity in children. It is also the second highest risk responsible for Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) among children below five years old. UNICEF estimates that during 1995 – 2003, there are only about 38% infants in developing countries who get to be exclusively breastfed during the first six months of their lives. According to Demography and Health Survey in Indonesia 2007, breastfeed practice rate still considered as low which is about 41%. One of the factors causing the low breastfeed practice rate in Indonesia is the anxiety and postpartum depression, and also the weanling dilemma in which mother feels that her breastmilk cannot suffice infant needs. Those factors finally resulting into low or even stopped production of breastmilk. Breastmilk production can be enhanced by consuming food containing phytosterol and lactogoga effect. Food with the highest phytosterol level is Sauropus androgynus (L.) Merr leaf (merr leaf). In this study, we made alternative food which named Chocomerr for breastfeeding mothers. Chocomerr consists of merr leaves which have lactogoga effect and chocolate for relaxation. Based on organoleptic tests conducted towards 2 age groups, which are 18 – 21 and 25 – 40 years old, this product gets good acceptance in taste, texture, and colour categories. Chocomerr can be used as an alternative way for increasing breastmilk production to aim for the decreasing number of DALYs among children aged under 5 years old.

Keywords: breastfeeding, increasing, chocolate, merr leaves

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Authors: Duong Van Thanh

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been recently a new trend in Higher Education systems globally as well as in the Vietnamese Higher Education. This study explores the benefits and challenges in applications of AI in 02 selected universities, ie. Vietnam National Universities in Hanoi Capital and the University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City. Particularly, this paper focuses on how the ethics of Artificial Intelligence have been addressed among faculty members at these two universities. The AI ethical issues include the access and inclusion, privacy and security, transparency and accountability. AI-powered educational technology has the potential to improve access and inclusion for students with disabilities or other learning needs. However, there is a risk that AI-based systems may not be accessible to all students and may even exacerbate existing inequalities. AI applications can be opaque and difficult to understand, making it challenging to hold them accountable for their decisions and actions. It is important to consider the benefits that adopting AI-systems bring to the institutions, teaching, and learning. And it is equally important to recognize the drawbacks of using AI in education and to take the necessary steps to mitigate any negative impact. The results of this study present a critical concern in higher education in Vietnam, where AI systems may be used to make important decisions about students’ learning and academic progress. The authors of this study attempt to make some recommendation that the AI-system in higher education system is frequently checked by a human in charge to verify that everything is working as it should or if the system needs some retraining or adjustments.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ethics, challenges, vietnam

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Authors: Aree Thongpukdee, Chockpisit Thepsithar, Chuthalak Thammaso

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Use of plants grown in local area for edible has a long tradition in different culture. The indigenous knowledge such as usage of plants as vegetables by local people is risk to disappear when no records are done. In order to conserve and transfer this valuable heritage to the new generation, ethnobotanical study should be investigated and documented. The survey of vegetable plants traditionally used was carried out in the year 2012. Information was accumulated via questionnaires and oral interviewing from 100 people living in 36 villages of 9 districts in Amphoe Huai Mek, Kalasin, Thailand. Local plant names, utilized parts and preparation methods of the plants were recorded. Each mentioned plant species were collected and voucher specimens were prepared. A total of 55 vegetable plant species belonging to 34 families and 54 genera were identified. The plant habits were tree, shrub, herb, climber, and shrubby fern at 21.82%, 18.18%, 38.18%, 20.00% and 1.82% respectively. The most encountered vegetable plant families were Leguminosae (20%), Cucurbitaceae (7.27%), Apiaceae (5.45%), whereas families with 3.64% uses were Araceae, Bignoniaceae, Lamiaceae, Passifloraceae, Piperaceae and Solanaceae. The most common consumptions were fresh or brief boiled young shoot or young leaf as side dishes of ‘jaeo, laab, namprik, pon’ or curries. Most locally known vegetables included 45% of the studied plants which grow along road side, backyard garden, hedgerow, open forest and rice field.

Keywords: vegetable plants, ethnobotanical survey, Kalasin, Thailand

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Authors: Mamta Rana, K. K. Singh, Nisha Kumari

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The simulation models with its soil-weather-plant atmosphere interacting system are important tools for assessing the crops in changing climate conditions. The CERES-Wheat & Rice vs. 4.6 DSSAT was calibrated and evaluated for one of the major producers of wheat and rice state- Haryana, India. The simulation runs were made under irrigated conditions and three fertilizer applications dose of N-P-K to estimate crop yield and other growth parameters along with the phenological development of the crop. The genetic coefficients derived by iteratively manipulating the relevant coefficients that characterize the phenological process of wheat and rice crop to the best fit match between the simulated and observed anthesis, physological maturity and final grain yield. The model validated by plotting the simulated and remote sensing derived LAI. LAI product from remote sensing provides the edge of spatial, timely and accurate assessment of crop. For validating the yield and yield components, the error percentage between the observed and simulated data was calculated. The analysis shows that the model can be used to simulate crop yield and yield components for wheat and rice cultivar under different management practices. During the validation, the error percentage was less than 10%, indicating the utility of the calibrated model for climate risk assessment in the selected region.

Keywords: simulation model, CERES-wheat and rice model, crop yield, genetic coefficient

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Authors: Muhammad Ali

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Cyber-attacks and anomaly detection on the Internet of Things (IoT) infrastructure is emerging concern in the domain of data-driven intrusion. Rapidly increasing IoT risk is now making headlines around the world. denial of service, malicious control, data type probing, malicious operation, DDos, scan, spying, and wrong setup are attacks and anomalies that can affect an IoT system failure. Everyone talks about cyber security, connectivity, smart devices, and real-time data extraction. IoT devices expose a wide variety of new cyber security attack vectors in network traffic. For further than IoT development, and mainly for smart and IoT applications, there is a necessity for intelligent processing and analysis of data. So, our approach is too secure. We train several machine learning models that have been compared to accurately predicting attacks and anomalies on IoT systems, considering IoT applications, with ANOVA-based feature selection with fewer prediction models to evaluate network traffic to help prevent IoT devices. The machine learning (ML) algorithms that have been used here are KNN, SVM, NB, D.T., and R.F., with the most satisfactory test accuracy with fast detection. The evaluation of ML metrics includes precision, recall, F1 score, FPR, NPV, G.M., MCC, and AUC & ROC. The Random Forest algorithm achieved the best results with less prediction time, with an accuracy of 99.98%.

Keywords: machine learning, analysis of variance, Internet of Thing, network security, intrusion detection

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Authors: Sehrish Jalal, Choon-Mee Kim, Dong-Min Kim

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Background: Many pathogens causing hemorrhagic fevers of medical and veterinary importance have been identified and isolated from rodents in the Republic of Korea (ROK). Objective: We investigated the prevalence of emerging viruses causing hemorrhagic fevers, such as hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) and flaviviruses, from wild rodents. Methods: Striped field mice, Apodemus agrarius, (n=39) were captured during 2014-2015 in the south-west of ROK. Using molecular methods, lung samples were evaluated for SFTS virus, HFRS virus and flavivirus, and seropositivity was evaluated in the blood. Results: A high positive rate of Hantavirus (46.2%) was detected in A.agrarius lungs by reverse transcription-nested polymerase chain reaction (RT-N-PCR). The monthly prevalence of HFRS virus was 16.7% in October, 86.7% in November and 25% in August of the following year (p < 0.001). Moreover, 17.9% of blood samples were serologically positive for Hantavirus antibodies. The most prevalent strain in A. agrarius was Hantaan virus. All samples were positive for neither SFTS nor flavivirus. Conclusion: Hantan virus was detected in 86.7% of A. agrarius in November (autumn), and thus, virus shedding from A. agrarius can increase the risk of humans contracting HFRS. These findings may help to predict and prevent disease outbreaks in ROK.

Keywords: hemorrhagic fever virus, molecular diagnostic technique, rodents, Korea

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Authors: Naeem Hassan

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The study intended to investigate the impact of the e banking system on the performance efficiency of the commercial banks in KP, Pakistan. In addition to this main purpose, the study also aimed at analyzing the impact of e banking on the service quality as well as satisfaction of the customers using e banking system. More over, the focus was also given to highlight the risks involved in the e banking system. The researcher has adopted the quantitative methodology in the study. in order to reach concrete finding, the researcher has analyzed the secondary data taken from the annual reports of selected banks and State bank of Pakistan as well as the primary data collected through the self-administrated questionnaire from the participants selected for the current study. The study highlighted that there is a significant impact of e banking on the financial efficiency on the commercial banks in KP, Pakistan. Additionally, the results of the study also show that the online banking is having significant effects on the customer satisfaction. The researcher recommends on the bases of findings that commercial banks should continue to adopt new technologies which will improve their margins and hence their net profit after tax in order to attract more investors. Additionally, commercial bank needs to minimize the time and risk in e-banking to attract more customers which will improve their net profit. Furthermore, the study findings also recommend the banking policy makers should also review policies related to promotion of innovation adoption and transfer of technology. Commercial banking system should encourage adoption of innovations that will improve profit of the banking industry.

Keywords: E-banking, performance efficiency, commercial banks, effect

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Authors: Walid Moudani

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The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the coronary heart disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts’ knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: multi-classifier decisions tree, features reduction, dynamic programming, rough sets

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Authors: Ari Istiany, Guspri Devi Artanti, M. Si

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Based on the results Riskesdas, it is known that breastfeeding awareness about the importance of exclusive breastfeeding is still low at only 15.3 %. These conditions resulted in a very infant at risk for infectious diseases, such as diarrhea and acute respiratory infection. Therefore, the aim of this study to evaluate the video development about exclusive breastfeeding as a nutrition education media for posyandu cadre. This research used development methods for making the video about exclusive breastfeeding. The study was conducted in urban areas Rawamangun, East Jakarta. Respondents of this study were 1 media experts from the Department of Educational Technology - UNJ, 2 subject matter experts from Department of Home Economics - UNJ and 20 posyandu cadres to assess the quality of the video. Aspects assessed include the legibility of text, image display quality, color composition, clarity of sound, music appropriateness, duration, suitability of the material and language. Data were analyzed descriptively likes frequency distribution table, the average value, and deviation standard. The result of this study showed that the average score assessment according to media experts, subject matter experts, and posyandu cadres respectively was 3.43 ± 0.51 (good), 4.37 ± 0.52 (very good) and 3.6 ± 0.73 (good). The conclusion is on exclusive breastfeeding video as feasible as a media for nutrition education. While suggestions for the improvement of visual media is multiply illustrations, add material about the correct way of breastfeeding and healthy baby pictures.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, posyandu cadre, video, nutrition education

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Authors: José de Jesús Rivero Oliva, Jesús Salomón Llanes, Manuel Perdomo Ojeda, Antonio Torres Valle

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Combinatorial explosion is a common problem to both predominant methods for solving fault trees: Minimal Cut Set (MCS) approach and Binary Decision Diagram (BDD). High memory consumption impedes the complete solution of very complex fault trees. Only approximated non-conservative solutions are possible in these cases using truncation or other simplification techniques. The paper proposes a method (CSolv+) for solving complex fault trees, without any possibility of combinatorial explosion. Each individual MCS is immediately discarded after its contribution to the basic events importance measures and the Top gate Upper Bound Probability (TUBP) has been accounted. An estimation of the Top gate Exact Probability (TEP) is also provided. Therefore, running in a computer cluster, CSolv+ will guarantee the complete solution of complex fault trees. It was successfully applied to 40 fault trees from the Aralia fault trees database, performing the evaluation of the top gate probability, the 1000 Significant MCSs (SMCS), and the Fussell-Vesely, RRW and RAW importance measures for all basic events. The high complexity fault tree nus9601 was solved with truncation probabilities from 10-²¹ to 10-²⁷ just to limit the execution time. The solution corresponding to 10-²⁷ evaluated 3.530.592.796 MCSs in 3 hours and 15 minutes.

Keywords: system reliability analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, fault tree analysis, basic events importance measures

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Authors: Asghar Motea Noparvar

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According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which has been characterized as a pandemic since December 2019, is attacking societies in terms of different ways. It means that this is much more than a crisis that is related to human health. It is a human, economic and social crisis. Since December 2019, not only some significant transformations have happened in human life, but also there has been some mental health, daily life activities, and even urban space changes. The purpose of this study is to mention some tangible transformations in society by applying two main restrictions such as “lock down” and “social distancing,” and how people took refuge in their homes and fit every activity there. How this pandemic has been transforming human life and social activities is the main issue of this study. In order to gather the information, review the impacts of COVID-19 on social life by revising the literature and considering the “Risk Society” theory, which is gotten credited by a German sociologist, Ulrich Beck. Additionally, COVID-19 not only had a direct impact on health but also had significant impacts on the economy, education, tourism, the environment, and the construction industry. Therefore, the pandemic caused a disruption in the whole urban system. In this study, the main focused point is the transformation of activities and residential areas. In order to achieve this finding, the literature review is analyzed in the case of COVID-19 and its impacts on social life. To sum up, it can be concluded that a pandemic can change social life along with other transformations that it is able to do.

Keywords: infectious disease, COVID-19, social activities, residential areas, transformation

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Authors: Yalda Zarnegarnia, Shari Messinger

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Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have been widely used in medical research to illustrate the performance of the biomarker in correctly distinguishing the diseased and non-diseased groups. Correlated biomarker data arises in study designs that include subjects that contain same genetic or environmental factors. The information about correlation might help to identify family members at increased risk of disease development, and may lead to initiating treatment to slow or stop the progression to disease. Approaches appropriate to a case-control design matched by family identification, must be able to accommodate both the correlation inherent in the design in correctly estimating the biomarker’s ability to differentiate between cases and controls, as well as to handle estimation from a matched case control design. This talk will review some developed methods for ROC curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case control design and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using Conditional ROC curves will be demonstrated, to provide appropriate ROC curves for correlated paired data. The proposed approach will use the information about the correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional ROC curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between diseased and non-diseased subjects in a familial paired design.

Keywords: biomarker, correlation, familial paired design, ROC curve

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Authors: Schadrack Mwizerwa

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The characterization and prediction of landslides are crucial for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. This research aims to develop a probabilistic framework for analyzing excavation-induced landslides, which is fundamental for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. The study uses Hermite polynomial chaos, a non-stationary random process, to analyze the stability of a slope and characterize the failure probability of a real landslide induced by highway construction excavation. The correlation within the data is captured using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion theory, and the finite element method is used to analyze the slope's stability. The research contributes to the field of landslide characterization by employing advanced random field approaches, providing valuable insights into the complex nature of landslide behavior and the effectiveness of advanced probabilistic models for risk assessment and management. The data collected from the Baiyuzui landslide, induced by highway construction, is used as an illustrative example. The findings highlight the importance of considering the probabilistic nature of landslides and provide valuable insights into the complex behavior of such hazards.

Keywords: Hermite polynomial chaos, Karhunen-Loeve, slope stability, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Saima Iftikhar Rida Shabbir, Zeeshan Hassan

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Water shortage, energy crisis and natural misfortunes are the glitches which reduce the efficacy of agricultural ecosystems especially in Pakistan where these are more frequent besides being intense. Accordingly, the agricultural water resources, food security and country’s economy are at risk. To address this, we have used Geospatial techniques incorporating ASTER Global DEM, Geological map, rainfall data, discharge data, Landsat 5 image of Swat valley in order to assess the viability of selected sites. The sites have been studied via GIS tools, Hydrological investigation and multiparametric analysis for their potentialities of collecting and securing the rain water; regulating floods by storing the surplus water bulks by check dams and developing them for power generation. Our results showed that Siat1-1 was very useful for low-cost dam with main objective of as Debris dam; Site-2 and Site 3 were check dams sites having adequate storing reservoir so as to arrest the inconsistent flow accompanied by catering the sedimentation effects and the debris flows; Site 4 had a huge reservoir capacity but it entails enormous edifice cost over very great flood plain. Thus, there is necessity of active Hydrological developments to estimate the flooded area using advanced and multifarious GIS and remote sensing approaches so that the sites could be developed for harnessing those sites for agricultural and energy drives.

Keywords: site suitability, check dams, SHP, terrain analysis, volume estimation

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Authors: Babatunde Osabiya

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Cybersecurity has emerged as a pressing policy problem in recent years, affecting individuals, businesses, and governments worldwide. This research paper aims to critically review the literature on cybersecurity policy and apply policy theory to propose a policy approach that balances the freedom to access and use technology with the human rights risks and threats posed by cyber. Drawing on various credible sources, the paper examines the scale and seriousness of cyber threats, highlighting the growing threat posed by cybercriminals, hackers, and nation-states. The paper also identifies the key challenges facing policymakers, including the need for more significant investment in cybersecurity research and development and the importance of balancing the benefits of technological innovation with the risks to privacy, security, and human rights. To address these challenges, the paper proposes a policy approach emphasizing investing in cybersecurity research and development to maintain a technological edge over potential adversaries. This approach also highlights the need for greater collaboration between government, industry, and civil society to develop effective cybersecurity policies and practices that protect the rights and freedoms of people while mitigating the risks posed by cyber threats. This paper will contribute to the growing body of literature on cybersecurity policy and offers a policy framework for addressing this critical policy challenge.

Keywords: security risk, legal framework, cyber security and policy, national security

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Authors: Fatma Faheem, K. Abduraheem

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Museums are custodians of natural and cultural heritage. Objects like tribal dresses, headgears, weapons, musical instruments, manuscripts and other ethnocultural materials housed in museums are prized possessions of intellectual and cultural property of people. Tropical countries like India have a favorable climatic condition for biodeterioration. Organic materials such as leather and parchment objects which form a substantial part of natural history collections of museums across the world are promptly infested by insects like dermestid beetles, tenebrionides, silver fishes, cockroaches and other micro-organisms. The environmental problems caused due to the overuse of pesticides and other non-degradable chemicals have been the matter of serious concern for both the scientists and public in recent years. Synthetic pesticides are very expensive and also highly toxic for humans and its environment. Due to its high health risk factor government has taken severe initiatives on policy of banning it. In order to overcome the problems of biodeterioration, natural biocides should be applied. In this paper, comparative study has been done to investigate the toxic efficacy of Myristica fragrans and Syzygium aromaticum oil in variation with contact and stomach toxicity against larvae of Anthrenus verbasci.

Keywords: biodeterioration, contact toxicity, cultural heritage, natural biocides, natural heritage, stomach toxicity

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Authors: Hanen Filali, Mohamed Hachicha

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Treated grey water (TGW) reuse emerged as an alternative resource to meet the growing demand for water for agricultural irrigation and reduce the pressure on limited existing fresh water. However, this reuse needs adapted management in order to avoid environmental and health risks. In this work, the treatment of grey water (GW) was studied from a cyclic treatment system that we designed and implemented in the greenhouse of National Research Institute for Rural Engineering, Water and Forests (INRGREF). This system is composed of three levels for treatment (TGW 1, TGW 2, and TGW 3). Each level includes a sandy soil box. The use of grey water was moderated depending on the chemical and microbiological quality obtained. Different samples of soils and treated grey water were performed and analyzed for 14 irrigation cycles. TGW through cyclic treatment showed physicochemical parameters like pH, electrical conductivity (EC), chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD5) in the range of 7,35-7,91, 1,69-5,03 dS/m, 102,6-54,2 mgO2/l, and 31,33-15,74 mgO2/l, respectively. Results showed a reduction in the pollutant load with a significant effect on the three treatment levels; however, an increase in salinity was observed during all irrigation cycles. Microbiological results showed good grey water treatment with low health risk on irrigated soil. Treated water quality was below permissible Tunisian standards (NT106.03), and treated water is suitable for non-potable options.

Keywords: treated grey water, irrigation, cyclic treatment, soils, physico-chemical parameters, microbiological parameters

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Authors: S. Salah, S. A. El-Masry, H. F. Sheba, R. A. El-Banna, W. Saad

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Background: Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) has episodic or subclinical inflammation that may lead to a decrease in bone mineral density (BMD). Objective: To assess BMD in Egyptian children with FMF on genetic basis. Subjects and Methods: A cross sectional study included 45 FMF patients and 25 control children of both sexes, with age range between 3-16 years old. The patients were reclassified into 2 groups: Group I (A) 23 cases used colchicines for 1 month or less, and Group I (B) 22 cases used colchicines for more than 6 months. For both patients and control, MEFV mutations were defined using molecular genetics technique and BMD was measured by DXA at 2 sites: proximal femur and the lumber spines. Results: four frequent gene mutations were found in the patient group: E148Q (35.6%), V726A (33.3%), M680I (28.9.0%) and M694V (2.2%). There were also 4 heterozygous gene mutations in 40% of control children. Patients received colchicines treatment for less than 1 month had highly significant lower values of BMD at femur and lumber spines than control children (p<0.05). Patients received colchicines treatment for more than 6 months had improved values of BMD at femur compared to control, but there were still significant differences between them at lumbar spine (p>0.05). There are insignificant effect of type of gene mutation on BMD and the risk of osteopenia among the patients. Conclusion: FMF had significant effect on BMD. However, regular use of colchicines treatment improves this effect mainly at femur.

Keywords: familial mediterranean fever, bone mineral density, genes, children

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Authors: June Tay, Ivy Chia

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There are numerous changes, both mental and physical, taking place when people age. We need to understand the different aspects required for healthy living, including meeting nutritional needs, regular physical activities to keep agility, sufficient rest and sleep to have physical and mental well-being, social engagement to avoid the risk of social isolation and depression, and access to healthcare to detect and manage chronic conditions. Promoting physical activities for an ageing population is necessary as many may have enjoyed sedentary lifestyles for some time. In our study, we evaluate the considerations when designing a computer vision video game for the elderly. We need to design some low-impact activities, such as stretching and gentle movements, because some elderly individuals may have joint pains or mobility issues. The exercise game should consist of simple movements that are easy to follow and remember. It should be fun and enjoyable so that they can be motivated to do some exercise. Social engagement can keep the elderly motivated and competitive, and they are more willing to engage in game exercises. Elderly citizens can compare their game scores and try to improve them. We propose a computer vision-based video game for the elderly that will capture and track the movement of the elderly hand pushing a ball on the screen into a circle. It can be easily set up using a PC laptop with a webcam. Our video game adhered to the design framework we employed, and it encompassed ease of use, a simple graphical interface, easy-to-play game exercise, and fun gameplay.

Keywords: about computer vision, video games, gerontology technology, caregiving

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Authors: Supriadi Hardianto, Aditya Daniswara

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Today's workplace, flooded by millennial Generation or known also as Generation Y. A common problem that faced by the company towards Gen Y is a high turnover rate, attitudes problem, communication style, and different work style than the older generation. This is common in private sector. The objective of this study is to get a better understanding of the Gen Y Career Attitude at the workplace. The subject of this study is focusing on 430 respondent of Gen Y which age between 20 – 35 years old who works for a private company. The Questionnaire as primary data source captured 9 aspects of career attitude based on Career Attitudes Strategy Inventory (CASI). This Survey distributes randomly among Gen Y in the IT Industry (125 Respondent) and Manufacture Company (305 Respondent). A Random deep interview was conducted to get the better understanding of the etiology of their primary obstacles. The study showed that most of Indonesia Gen Y have a moderate score on Job satisfaction but in the other aspects, Gen Y has the lowest score on Skill Development, Career Worries, Risk-Taking Style, Dominant Style, Work Involvement, Geographical Barrier, Interpersonal Abuse, and Family Commitment. The top 5 obstacles outside that 9 aspects that faced by Gen Y are 1. Lower communication & networking support; 2. Self-confidence issues; 3. Financial Problem; 4. Emotional issues; 5. Age. We also found that parent perspective toward the way they are nurturing their child are not aligned with their child’s real life. This research fundamentally helps the organization and other Gen Y’s Stakeholders to have a better understanding of Gen Y Career Attitude at the workplace.

Keywords: career attitudes, CASI, Gen Y, career attitude at workplace

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Authors: Jolien Rijlaarsdam, Charlotte A. M. Cecil, J. Marieke Buil, Pol A. C. Van Lier, Edward D. Barker

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Although there is mounting evidence that the experience of being bullied associates with both internalizing and externalizing symptoms, it is not known yet whether the identified associations are specific to these symptoms or shared between them. The primary focus of this study is to assess the prospective associations of bullying exposure with both general and specific (i.e., internalizing, externalizing) factors of psychopathology. This study included data from 6,210 children participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Child bullying was measured by self-report at ages 8 and 10 years. Child psychopathology symptoms were assessed by parent-interview, using the Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA) at ages 7 and 13 years. Bullying exposure is significantly associated with the general psychopathology factor in early adolescence. In particular, chronically victimized youth exposed to multiple forms of bullying (i.e., both overt and relational) showed the highest levels of general psychopathology. Bullying exposure is also associated with both internalizing and externalizing factors from the correlated-factors model. However, the effect estimates for these factors decreased considerably in size and dropped to insignificant for the internalizing factor after extracting the shared variance that belongs to the general factor of psychopathology. In an integrative longitudinal model, higher levels of general psychopathology at age seven are associated with bullying exposure at age eight, which, in turn, is associated with general psychopathology at age 13 through its two-year continuity. Findings suggest that exposure to bullying is a risk factor for a more general vulnerability to psychopathology through mutually influencing relationships.

Keywords: bullying exposure, externalizing, general psychopathology, internalizing, longitudinal

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Authors: Ms Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis as a tool for the causal inference in the observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned, thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. For the binary outcome, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be estimated by odds ratios, relative risks, and risk differences. However, using the different PS methods may give you a different estimation of the treatment effect on the outcome. Several methods of PS analyses have been used mainly, include matching, inverse probability of weighting, stratification, and covariate adjusted on PS. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables (exposure, covariates), the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect (ATE) utilizing the stratification of PS method. Therefore, we are trying to avoid choosing arbitrary cut-points, instead, we continuously discretize the PS and accumulate information across all cut-points for inferences. We will use Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate ATE, focusing on two PS methods, stratification and covariate adjusted on PS. We will then show how this can be observed based on the analyses of the data from a case-control study of breast cancer, the Polish Women’s Health Study.

Keywords: average treatment effect, propensity score, stratification, covariate adjusted, monte Calro estimation, breast cancer, case_control study

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Authors: Ana Maria De Azevedo

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We are living a remarkable period, responsible for the thriving of the human population to unprecedented levels. Still, it is empirically obvious that sustaining such a huge population puts a tremendous pressure on our planet. Once Land resources grow scarcer, there is a mounting pressure to find alternatives to support basic human needs elsewhere. Occupying most of our planet, it’s therefore natural that, is not a so distant future, humankind look for such basic subsistence means at the Ocean. Thus, once the Ocean becomes essential to Human subsistence, it is predictable it's moving to the foreground of Geopolitics. Both future technologies and uses of the Ocean, as bidding for the exploration of its resources away from the natural territory of influence of a Country, are susceptible of raising the risk of conflict between traditional political adversaries and/or the dilemma of having to balance economic interests, with various security and defense concerns. Those empirical observations suggest the need to further research on this perspective shift of the main Geopolitical axis to the Ocean, the new sources of conflict that can result thereon, and how to address them. The author suggests a systematic analysis of this problematic, to attain a political and legal international consensus, namely on what concerns updating of the 'United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea' of 10 December 1982, and/or its annexes. To proceed with the present research, the primary analysis was based on a quantitative observation, but reasoning thereon relied essentially on a qualitative process of prospective scenarios assessment.

Keywords: marine resources, ocean geopolitics, security and defense, sustainable development

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