Search results for: results of research

Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

Abstract:

Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

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Authors: Magdi Elmessiry, Adel Elmessiry

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The fashion industry represents a significant portion of the global gross domestic product, however, it is plagued by cheap imitators that infringe on the trademarks which destroys the fashion industry's hard work and investment. While eventually the copycats would be found and stopped, the damage has already been done, sales are missed and direct and indirect jobs are lost. The infringer thrives on two main facts: the time it takes to discover them and the lack of tracking technologies that can help the consumer distinguish them. Blockchain technology is a new emerging technology that provides a distributed encrypted immutable and fault resistant ledger. Blockchain presents a ripe technology to resolve the infringement epidemic facing the fashion industry. The significance of the study is that a new approach leveraging the state of the art blockchain technology coupled with artificial intelligence is used to create a framework addressing the fashion infringement problem. It transforms the current focus on legal enforcement, which is difficult at best, to consumer awareness that is far more effective. The framework, Crypto CopyCat, creates an immutable digital asset representing the actual product to empower the customer with a near real time query system. This combination emphasizes the consumer's awareness and appreciation of the product's authenticity, while provides real time feedback to the producer regarding the fake replicas. The main findings of this study are that implementing this approach can delay the fake product penetration of the original product market, thus allowing the original product the time to take advantage of the market. The shift in the fake adoption results in reduced returns, which impedes the copycat market and moves the emphasis to the original product innovation.

Keywords: fashion, infringement, blockchain, artificial intelligence, textiles supply chain

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Authors: Hai-Ying Liu, Yi-Hao Chen, Shu-Yin Pang, Feng-Hua Wang, Xiao-Fang Peng, Li-Yuan Yang, Zheng-Rong Chen, Yi Chen, Bing Zhu

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Objective: Biliary atresia (BA) is characterized by progressive liver fibrosis. Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) has been implicated as a key mechanism in the pathogenesis of organ fibrosis. MiR-200a has been shown to repress EMT. We aim to explore the role of miR-200a in the fibrogenesis of BA. Methods: We obtained the plasma samples and liver samples from patients with BA or controls to examine the role of miR-200a. Histological liver fibrosis was assessed using the Ishak fibrosis scores. Reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was performed to detect the expression of miR-200a in plasma. We also evaluated the expression of miR-200a in liver tissues using tyramide signal amplification fluorescence in situ hybridization (TSA-FISH). The expression of EMT related proteins zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1 (ZEB1), E-cadherin and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) in the liver sections were detected by immunohistochemical staining. Results: We found that the expression of miR-200a was both elevated in the plasma and liver tissues from BA patients compared with the controls. The hepatic expression of ZEB1 and α-SMA were markedly increased in the liver sections from BA patients compared to the controls, whereas E-cadherin was downregulated in the BA group. Simultaneously, we noted that the hepatic expression of miR-200a, E-cadherin and α-SMA were upregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in the BA group, while ZEB1 was downregulated with the progression of liver fibrosis in BA patients. Conclusion: These findings suggest EMT has a critical effect on the fibrotic process of BA, and the interaction between miR-200a and ZEB1 may regulate EMT and eventually influence liver fibrogenesis of BA.

Keywords: biliary atresia, liver fibrosis, MicroRNA, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1

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Authors: Milad Mirzaei Aminiyan, Abdolreza Akhgar, Farzad Mirzaei Aminiyan

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Water quality is the critical factor that influence on human health and quantity and quality of grain production in semi-humid and semi-arid area. Pistachio is a main crop that accounts for a considerable portion of Iranian agricultural exports. Give that pistachio tree is a tolerant type of tree to saline and alkaline soil and water conditions, but groundwater and irrigation water quality play important roles in main production this crop. For this purpose, 94 well water samples were taken from 25 wells and samples were analyzed. The results showed give that region’s geological, climatic characteristics, statistical analysis, and based on dominant cations and anions in well water samples (piper diagram); four main types of water were found: Na-Cl, K-Cl, Na-SO4, and K-SO4. It seems that most wells in terms of water quality (salinity and alkalinity) and based on Wilcox diagram have critical status. The analysis suggested that more than eighty-seven percentage of the well water samples have high values of EC that these values are higher than into critical limit EC value for irrigation water, which may be due to the sandy soils in this area. Most groundwater were relatively unsuitable for irrigation but it could be used by application of correct management such as removing and reducing the ion concentrations of Cl‾, SO42‾, Na+ and total hardness in groundwater and also the concentrated deep groundwater was required treatment to reduce the salinity and sodium hazard. Given that irrigation water quality in this area was relatively unsuitable for most agriculture production but pistachio tree was adapted to this area conditions. The integrated management of groundwater for irrigation is the way to solve water quality issues not only in Rafsanjan area, but also in other arid and semi-arid areas.

Keywords: groundwater quality, irrigation water quality, salinity, alkalinity, Rafsanjan plain, pistachio

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Authors: Ping Ren, Mao Wen, Kan Zhang, Weitao Zheng

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The improvement of comprehensive properties including hardness, toughness, wear, and corrosion resistance in the transition metal carbides/nitrides TMCN films, especially avoiding the trade-off between hardness and toughness, is strongly required to adapt to various applications. Although incorporating ductile metal DM phase into the TMCN via thermally-induced phase separation has been emerged as an effective approach to toughen TMCN-based films, the DM is just limited to some soft ductile metal (i.e. Cu, Ag, Au immiscibility with the TMCN. Moreover, hardness is highly sensitive to soft DM content and can be significantly worsened. Hence, a novel preparation method should be attempted to broaden the DM selection and assemble much more ordered nanocomposite structure for improving the comprehensive properties. Here, we provide a new strategy, by activating solid-state dewetting during layered deposition, to accomplish the self-assembly of ordered TaC@Ta core-shell-like nanocomposite film consisting of TaC nanocrystalline encapsulated with thin pseudocrystal Ta tissue. That results in the superhard (~45.1 GPa) dominated by Orowan strengthening mechanism and high toughness attributed to indenter-induced phase transformation from the pseudocrystal to body-centered cubic Ta, together with the drastically enhanced wear and corrosion resistance. Furthermore, very thin pseudocrystal Ta encapsulated layer (~1.5 nm) in the TaC@Ta core-shell-like structure helps for promoting the formation of lubricious TaOₓ Magnéli phase during sliding, thereby further dropping the coefficient of friction. Apparently, solid-state dewetting may provide a new route to construct ordered TMC(N)@TM core-shell-like nanocomposite capable of combining superhard, high toughness, low friction, superior wear with corrosion resistance.

Keywords: corrosion, nanocomposite film, solid-state dewetting, tribology

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Authors: Rumesh Liyanage, S. B. Nawaratne, K. K. D. S. Ranaweera, Indira Wickramasinghe, K. G. S. C. Katukurunda

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Study it was attempted to identify an effect of food habits and publics’ attitudes on micro-sleepiness and preventive measures to develop a food product to combat. Statistical data pertaining to road accidents were collected from, Sri Lanka Police Traffic Division and a pre-tested questionnaire was used to collect data from 250 respondents. They were selected representing drivers (especially highway drivers), private and public sector workers (shift based) and cramming students (university and school). Questionnaires were directed to fill independently and personally and collected data were analyzed statistically. Results revealed that 76.84, 96.39 and 80.93% out of total respondents consumed rice for all three meals which lead to ingesting higher glycemic meals. Taking two hyper glycemic meals before 14.00h was identified as a cause of micro-sleepiness within these respondents. Peak level of road accidents were observed at 14.00 - 20.00h (38.2%)and intensity of micro-sleepiness falls at the same time period (37.36%) while 14.00 to 16.00h was the peak time, 16.00 to 18.00h was the least; again 18.00 to 20.00h it reappears slightly. Even though respondents of the survey expressed that peak hours of micro- sleepiness is 14.00-16.00h, according to police reports, peak hours fall in between 18.00-20.00h. Out of the interviewees, 69.27% strongly wanted to avoid micro-sleepiness and intend to spend LKR 10-20 on a commercial product to combat micro sleepiness. As age-old practices to suppress micro-sleepiness are time taken, modern day respondents (51.64%) like to have a quick solution through a drink. Therefore, food habits of morning and noon may cause for micro- sleepiness while dinner may cause for both, natural and micro-sleepiness due to the heavy glycemic load of food. According to the study micro-sleepiness, can be categorized into three zones such as low-risk zone (08.00-10.00h and 18.00-20.00h), manageable zone (10.00-12.00h), and high- risk zone (14.00-16.00h).

Keywords: food habits, glycemic load, micro-sleepiness, road accidents

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Authors: Islam Zeb

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The water of poor quality used for irrigation purposes has the potential to be the direct source of contamination and a vehicle for spreading contamination in the field. A number of wide-ranging review articles have been published that highlight irrigation water as a source of heavy metals toxicity which leads to chronic diseases in the human body. Here a study was planned to determine the microbial and heavy metals status of irrigation water collected from various locations of district Swat in various months. The analyses were carried out at the Environmental Horticulture Laboratory, Department of Horticulture, The University of Agriculture Peshawar, during the year 2018 – 19. The experiment was laid out in Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with two factors and three replicates. Factor A consist of different locations and factor B represent various months. The result of heavy metals concentration in different regions, maximum Lead, Cadmium, Chromium, Nickel and Copper (4.27, 0.56, 0.81, 1.33 and 1.51 mg L-1 respectively) were noted for the irrigation water samples collected from Mingora while minimum Lead, Cadmium, Chromium, Nickel and Copper concentration (2.59, 0.30, 0.27, 0.40 and 0.54 mg L-1 respectively) were noted for the samples of matta. Whereas results of heavy metals content in irrigation water samples for various months maximum content of Lead, Cadmium, Chromium, Nickel and Copper (4.56, 0.63, 1.15, 1.31 and 1.48 mg L-1 respectively) were noted for the samples collected in Jan/Feb while lowest values for Lead, Cadmium, Chromium, Nickel and Copper (2.38, 0.24, 0.21, 0.41 and 0.52 mg L-1 respectively) were noted in the samples of July/August. A significant interaction was found for all the studied parameters. It was concluded that the concentration of heavy metal was maximum in irrigation water samples collected from the Mingora location during the month of Jan/Feb because Mingora is the most polluted area as compared to other studied regions, whereas the water content in winter goes to freeze and mostly contaminated water is used for irrigation purposes.

Keywords: irrigation water, various months, different regions, heavy metals contamination, Swat

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Authors: Caiwei Chen, Jianhao Li, Jiasong Zhu

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The reform and opening-up stimulated economic and technological take-off in China while resulting in massive urbanization and motorization. Wujiaochang area was set as a secondary business district in Shanghai to meet the growing demand, with the reconstruction of Wujiaochang Plaza in 2005 being a milestone of this intended urban renewal. Wujiaochang is now an economically dynamic area providing much larger traffic and transit capacity transportation-wise. However, this rebuilding has completely changed the face of the district. It is, therefore, appropriate to evaluate its impact on neighborhoods and communities while assessing the overall sustainability of such an operation. In this study, via an online questionnaire survey among local residents and daily visitors, we assess the perceptions and the estimated impact of Wujiaochang Plaza's reconstruction. We then confront these results to the 62 answers from local residents to a questionnaire collected on paper. The analysis of our data, along with observation and other forms of information -such as maps analysis or online applications (Dianping)- demonstrate major improvement in economic sustainability but also significant losses in environmental sustainability, especially in terms of active transportation. As for the social viewpoint, local residents' opinions tend to be rather positive, especially regarding traffic safety and access to consumption, despite the lack of connectivity and radical changes induced by Wujiaochang massive transformations. In general, our investigation exposes the overall positive outcomes of Wujiaochang Plaza reconstruction but also unveils major drawbacks, especially in terms of soft mobility and traffic fluidity. We gather that our approach could be of tremendous help for future major urban interventions, as such approaches in municipal regeneration are widely implemented in Chinese cities and yet still need to be thoroughly assessed in terms of sustainability.

Keywords: China's reform and opening-up, economical revitalization, neighborhood identity, sustainability assessment, urban renewal

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Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

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Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: statistical slope stability analysis, skew distributions, probability of failure, functions of random variables

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Authors: Shannon Hearney, Jeffrey Hoch

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Pancreatic cancer is a notoriously costly and deadly form of cancer. Many types of treatment centers exist for patients to seek care from, including high-volume centers which have shown promise to provide the highest quality of care. While it may be true that this type of center provides the best care it is unclear if that care is cost-effective. Studies in the US have confirmed that high-volume hospitals do provide higher quality of care but have shown inconsistencies in the cost-effectiveness of that care. Other studies, like those from Finland have shown that high-volume centers had lower mortality and lower costs than low-volume centers. This paper thus seeks to review the current scientific literature to better understand if high-volume centers are cost-effective in delivering care in both a European setting and in the US. A review of major reference databases such as Medline, Embase and PubMed will be conducted for cost-effectiveness studies on the surgical treatment of pancreatic cancer at high-volume centers. Possible MeSH terms to be included, but not limited to, are: “pancreatic cancer”, “cost analysis”, “cost-effectiveness”, “economic evaluation”, “pancreatic neoplasms”, “surgical”, and “high-volume”. Studies must also have been available in the English language. This review will encompass European scientific literature, as well as those in the US. Based on our preliminary findings, we anticipate high-volume hospitals to provide better care at greater costs. We anticipate that high-volume hospitals may be cost-effective in different contexts depending on the national structure of a healthcare system. Countries with more centralized and socialized healthcare may yield results that are more cost-effective. High-volume centers may differ in their cost-effectiveness of the surgical care of pancreatic cancer internationally especially when comparing those in the United States to others throughout Europe.

Keywords: cost-effectiveness analysis, economic evaluation, pancreatic cancer, scientific literature review

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Authors: Sudhanshu Kumar

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Electrical discharge machining, also known as EDM, process is one of the most applicable machining process for removal of material in hard to machine materials like superalloy metals. EDM process utilizes electrical energy into sparks to erode the metals in presence of dielectric medium. In the present investigation, superalloy, Inconel 718 has been selected as workpiece and electrolytic copper as tool electrode. Attempt has been made to understand the effect of size of tool with varying cavity depth during drilling of hole through EDM process. In order to systematic investigate, tool size in terms of tool diameter and cavity depth along with other important electrical parameters namely, peak current, pulse-on time and servo voltage have been varied at three different values and the experiments has been designed using fractional factorial (Taguchi) method. Each experiment has been repeated twice under the same condition in order to understand the variability within the experiments. The effect of variations in parameters has been evaluated in terms of material removal rate, tool wear rate and surface roughness. Results revel that change in tool diameter during machining affects the response characteristics significantly. Larger tool diameter yielded 13% more material removal rate than smaller tool diameter. Analysis of the effect of variation in cavity depth is notable. There is no significant effect of cavity depth on material removal rate, tool wear rate and surface quality. This indicates that number of experiments can be performed to analyze other parameters effect even at smaller depth of cavity which can reduce the cost and time of experiments. Further, statistical analysis has been carried out to identify the interaction effect between parameters.

Keywords: EDM, Inconel 718, material removal rate, roughness, tool wear, tool size

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Authors: Jorge Iván Bañol-Betancur, Lina María Martínez-Sánchez, María de los Ángeles Rodríguez-Gázquez, Estefanía Bahamonde-Olaya, Ana María Gutiérrez-Tamayo, Laura Isabel Jaramillo-Jaramillo, Camilo Ruiz-Mejía, Natalia Morales-Quintero

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Acute chest pain is a distressing sensation between the diaphragm and the base of the neck and it represents a diagnostic challenge for any physician in the emergency department. Objective: To establish the main clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients who present with chest pain to the emergency department in a private clinic from the city of Medellin, during 2014-2015. Methods: Cross-sectional retrospective observational study. Population and sample were patients who consulted for chest pain in the emergency department who met the eligibility criteria. The information was analyzed in SPSS program vr.21; qualitative variables were described through relative frequencies, and the quantitative through mean and standard deviation ‬or medians according to their distribution in the study population. Results: A total of 231 patients were evaluated, the mean age was 49.5 ± 19.9 years, 56.7% were females. The most frequent pathological antecedents were hypertension 35.5%, diabetes 10,8%, dyslipidemia 10.4% and coronary disease 5.2%. Regarding pain features, in 40.3% of the patients the pain began abruptly, in 38.2% it had a precordial location, for 20% of the cases physical activity acted as a trigger, and 60.6% was oppressive. Costochondritis was the most common cause of chest pain among patients with an established etiologic diagnosis, representing the 18.2%. Conclusions: Although the clinical features of pain reported coincide with the clinical presentation of an acute coronary syndrome, the most common cause of chest pain in study population was costochondritis instead, indicating that it is a differential diagnostic in the approach of patients with pain acute chest.

Keywords: acute coronary syndrome, chest pain, epidemiology, osteochondritis

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Authors: P. Cinthuja, J. A. O. A Jayakody, M. P. M. Perera, W. V. D. N. Weerarathna, S.E. Nirosha, D. K. D. C. Indeewari, T. Kaethieswaran, S. B. Adikari

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The aims of the study was to measure physical fitness parameters of school badminton players in the Kandy district and determine the factors contributing to improve the physical fitness. Height, weight, handgrip was measured and sit and reach test, shoulder flexibility test, standing long jump test, 20m sprint speed test, agility T-test and 20 m multistage shuttle run test were performed on 183 school badminton players. Linear regression and correlation tests were performed using body mass index, practiced duration, age category, level of performance, additional sports involvement as independent variables and physical fitness parameter as dependent variables. Results: The present study showed that the upper body power, upper body strength and endurance and speed depended on body mass index both in male and female school badminton players. Speed, agility, flexibility of shoulders, explosive power of shoulder and aerobic endurance depended on the duration of practiced. Furthermore, involvement in additional sports other than badminton did not enhance the performance of badminton players. But it decreased player’s performance by decreasing agility and speed. Age had an effect on the upper body power, explosive power of lower limb, agility and speed both in both males and females. Conclusions: The performance of badminton players could be enhanced by maintaining a proper body mass index. Badminton specific parameter could be improved by increasing the duration of practiced. Involvement in other sports does not give an added advantage to badminton players to improve their performance.

Keywords: agility, Body Mass Index, endurance, badminton

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Authors: Nathaniel C. Villanueva, Ian K. H. Chun, Alyssa S. Fujiwara, Emily R. Leibovitch, Brennan E. Yamamoto, Loren G. Yamamoto

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Introduction: In previous studies of high school sports, over 15% of concussions were attributed to contact with the playing surface. While artificial turf fields are increasing in popularity due to lower maintenance costs, artificial turf has been associated with more ankle and knee injuries, with inconclusive data on concussions. In this study, natural grass and artificial football fields were compared in terms of deceleration on fall impact. Methods: Accelerometers were placed on the forehead, apex of the head, and right ear of a Century Body Opponent Bag (BOB) manikin. A Riddell HITS football helmet was secured onto the head of the manikin over the accelerometers. This manikin was dropped onto natural grass (n = 10) and artificial turf (n = 9) high school football fields. The manikin was dropped from a stationary position at a height of 60 cm onto its front, back, and left side. Each of these drops was conducted 10 times at the 40-yard line, 20-yard line, and endzone. The net deceleration on impact was calculated as a net vector from each of the three accelerometers’ x, y, and z vectors from the three different locations on the manikin’s head (9 vector measurements per drop). Results: Mean values for the multiple drops were calculated for each accelerometer and drop type for each field. All accelerometers in forward and backward falls and one accelerometer in side falls showed significantly greater impact force on synthetic turf compared to the natural grass surfaces. Conclusion: Impact force was higher on synthetic fields for all drop types for at least one of the accelerometer locations. These findings suggest that concussion risk might be higher for athletes playing on artificial turf fields.

Keywords: concussion, football, biomechanics, sports

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Authors: Abdulmohsen Alruwaili

Abstract:

A partial differential system featuring momentum and energy balance is often used to describe simulations of flow initiation and thermal shifting in boundary layers. The buoyancy force in terms of temperature is factored in the momentum balance equation. Buoyancy force causes the flow quantity to fluctuate along the streamwise direction 𝑋; therefore, the problem can be, to our best knowledge, analyzed through nonsimilar modeling. In this analysis, a nonsimilar model is evolved for radiative mixed convection of a magnetized power-law nanoliquid flow on top of a vertical plate installed in a stationary fluid. The upward linear stretching initiated the flow in the vertical direction. Assuming nanofluids are composite of copper (Cu) and alumina (Al₂O₃) nanoparticles, the viscous dissipation in this case is negligible. The nonsimilar system is dealt with analytically by local nonsimilarity (LNS) via numerical algorithm bvp4c. Surface temperature and flow field are shown visually in relation to factors like mixed convection, magnetic field strength, nanoparticle volume fraction, radiation parameters, and Prandtl number. The repercussions of magnetic and mixed convection parameters on the rate of energy transfer and friction coefficient are represented in tabular forms. The results obtained are compared to the published literature. It is found that the existence of nanoparticles significantly improves the temperature profile of considered nanoliquid. It is also observed that when the estimates of the magnetic parameter increase, the velocity profile decreases. Enhancement in nanoparticle concentration and mixed convection parameter improves the velocity profile.

Keywords: nanofluid, power law model, mixed convection, thermal radiation

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Authors: Meral Melek Unver

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This paper aims to explore ways to help English as a Foreign Language (EFL) learners notice and revise voice in English and raise their awareness of when and how to use active and passive voice to convey meaning in their written and spoken work. Because passive voice is commonly preferred in certain genres such as academic essays and news reports, despite the current trends promoting active voice, it is essential for learners to be fully aware of the meaning, use and form of passive voice to better communicate. The participants in the study are 22 EFL learners taking a one-year intensive English course at a university, who will receive English medium education (EMI) in their departmental studies in the following academic year. Data from students’ written and oral work was collected over a four-week period and the misuse or inaccurate use of passive voice was identified. The analysis of the data proved that they failed to make sensible decisions about when and how to use passive voice partly because the differences between their mother tongue and English and because they were not aware of the fact that active and passive voice would not alternate all the time. To overcome this, a Test-Teach-Test shape lesson, as opposed to a Present-Practice-Produce shape lesson, was designed and implemented to raise their awareness of the decisions they needed to make in choosing the voice and help them notice the meaning and use of passive voice through concept checking questions. The results first suggested that awareness raising activities on the meaning and use of voice in English would be beneficial in having accurate and meaningful outcomes from students. Also, helping students notice and renotice passive voice through carefully designed activities would help them internalize the use and form of it. As a result of the study, a number of activities are suggested to revise and notice passive voice as well as a short questionnaire to help EFL teachers to self-reflect on their teaching.

Keywords: voice in English, test-teach-test, passive voice, English language teaching

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Authors: Abdullah Kaymakci, Daniel M. Madyira, Ntokozo Nkwanyana

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The effect of metal transfer modes on mechanical properties of welded 3CR12 stainless steel were investigated. This was achieved by butt welding 10 mm thick plates of 3CR12 in different positions while varying the welding positions for different metal transfer modes. The ASME IX: 2010 (Welding and Brazing Qualifications) code was used as a basis for welding variables. The material and the thickness of the base metal were kept constant together with the filler metal, shielding gas and joint types. The effect of the metal transfer modes on the microstructure and the mechanical properties of the 3CR12 steel was then investigated as it was hypothesized that the change in welding positions will affect the transfer modes partly due to the effect of gravity. The microscopic examination revealed that the substrate was characterized by dual phase microstructure, that is, alpha phase and beta phase grain structures. Using the spectroscopic examination results and the ferritic factor calculation had shown that the microstructure was expected to be ferritic-martensitic during air cooling process. The tested tensile strength and Charpy impact energy were measured to be 498 MPa and 102 J which were in line with mechanical properties given in the material certificate. The heat input in the material was observed to be greater than 1 kJ/mm which is the limiting factor for grain growth during the welding process. Grain growths were observed in the heat affected zone of the welded materials. Ferritic-martensitic microstructure was observed in the microstructure during the microscopic examination. The grain growth altered the mechanical properties of the test material. Globular down hand had higher mechanical properties than spray down hand. Globular vertical up had better mechanical properties than globular vertical down.

Keywords: welding, metal transfer modes, stainless steel, microstructure, hardness, tensile strength

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Authors: Fatemeh Parhizkar, Mojtaba Yamani, Abdolla Behboodi, Masoomeh Hashemi

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The mangrove forests are natural and valuable gifts that exist in some parts of the world, including Iran. Regarding the threats faced by these forests and the declining area of them all over the world, as well as in Iran, it is very necessary to manage and monitor them. The current study aimed to investigate the changes in mangrove forests and the relationship between these changes and the marine hydrodynamics and coastal morphology in the area between qeshm island and the west coast of the Hormozgan province (i.e. the coastline between Mehran river and Bandar-e Pol port) in the 49-year period. After preprocessing and classifying satellite images using the SVM, MLC, and ANN classifiers and evaluating the accuracy of the maps, the SVM approach with the highest accuracy (the Kappa coefficient of 0.97 and overall accuracy of 98) was selected for preparing the classification map of all images. The results indicate that from 1972 to 1987, the area of these forests have had experienced a declining trend, and in the next years, their expansion was initiated. These forests include the mangrove forests of Khurkhuran wetland, Muriz Deraz Estuary, Haft Baram Estuary, the mangrove forest in the south of the Laft Port, and the mangrove forests between the Tabl Pier, Maleki Village, and Gevarzin Village. The marine hydrodynamic and geomorphological characteristics of the region, such as average intertidal zone, sediment data, the freshwater inlet of Mehran river, wave stability and calmness, topography and slope, as well as mangrove conservation projects make the further expansion of mangrove forests in this area possible. By providing significant and up-to-date information on the development and decline of mangrove forests in different parts of the coast, this study can significantly contribute to taking measures for the conservation and restoration of mangrove forests.

Keywords: mangrove forests, marine hydrodynamics, coastal morphology, west of strait of Hormuz, Iran

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Authors: Ying-Yi Laio, Yea-Ru Yang, Yih-Ru Wu, Ray-Yau Wang

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Background: Virtual reality (VR) systems are proved to increase motor performance in stroke and elderly. However, the effects have not been established in patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD). Purpose: To examine the effects of VR based training in improving muscle strength, sensory integration ability and walking abilities in patients with PD by a randomized controlled trial. Method: Thirty six participants with diagnosis of PD were randomly assigned to one of the three groups (n=12 for each group). Participants received VR-based Wii Fit exercise (VRWii group) or traditional exercise (TE group) for 45 minutes, followed by treadmill training for another 15 minutes for 12 sessions in 6 weeks. Participants in the control group received no structured exercise program but fall-prevention education. Outcomes included lower extremity muscle strength, sensory integration ability, walking velocity, stride length, and functional gait assessment (FGA). All outcomes were assessed at baseline, after training and at 1-month follow-up. Results: Both VRWii and TE groups showed more improvement in level walking velocity, stride length, FGA, muscle strength and vestibular system integration than control group after training and at 1-month follow-up. The VRWii training, but not the TE training, resulted in more improvement in visual system integration than the control. Conclusions: VRWii training is as beneficial as traditional exercise in improving walking abilities, sensory integration ability and muscle strength in patients with PD, and such improvements persisted at least for 1 month. The VRWii training is then suggested to be implemented in patients with PD.

Keywords: virtual reality, walking, sensory integration, muscle strength, Parkinson’s disease

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Authors: Herath M. P. C. Jayaweera, Samer Hanoun

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Path planning for on-time obstacle avoidance is an essential and challenging task that enables drones to achieve safe operation in any application domain. The level of challenge increases significantly on the obstacle avoidance technique when the drone is following a ground mobile entity (GME). This is mainly due to the change in direction and magnitude of the GME′s velocity in dynamic and unstructured environments. Force field techniques are the most widely used obstacle avoidance methods due to their simplicity, ease of use, and potential to be adopted for three-dimensional dynamic environments. However, the existing force field obstacle avoidance techniques suffer many drawbacks, including their tendency to generate longer routes when the obstacles are sideways of the drone′s route, poor ability to find the shortest flyable path, propensity to fall into local minima, producing a non-smooth path, and high failure rate in the presence of symmetrical obstacles. To overcome these shortcomings, this paper proposes an on-time three-dimensional obstacle avoidance method for drones to effectively and efficiently avoid dynamic and static obstacles in unknown environments while pursuing a GME. This on-time obstacle avoidance technique generates velocity waypoints for its obstacle-free and efficient path based on the shape of the encountered obstacles. This method can be utilized on most types of drones that have basic distance measurement sensors and autopilot-supported flight controllers. The proposed obstacle avoidance technique is validated and evaluated against existing force field methods for different simulation scenarios in Gazebo and ROS-supported PX4-SITL. The simulation results show that the proposed obstacle avoidance technique outperforms the existing force field techniques and is better suited for real-world applications.

Keywords: drones, force field methods, obstacle avoidance, path planning

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Authors: T. Poppendieker, H. Maurer, C. Segieth

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Over the past ten years, foam rolling has become a new trend in the fitness and health market. It is also a frequently used technique for self-massage. However, the scope of effects from foam rolling has only recently started to be researched and understood. The focus of this study is to examine the effects of prolonged foam rolling on muscle performance. Isometric muscle force was used as a parameter to determine an improving impact of the myofascial roller in two different application volumes. Besides the maximal muscle force, data were also collected on muscle activation during all tests. Twenty-four (17 females, 7 males) healthy students with an average age of 23.4 ± 2.8 years were recruited. The study followed a cross-over pre-/post design in which the order of conditions was counterbalanced. The subjects performed a one-minute and three-minute foam rolling application set on two separate days. Isometric maximal muscle force of the dominant calf was tested before and after the self-myofascial release application. The statistic software program SPSS 22 was used to analyze the data of the maximal isometric force of the calf muscle by a 2 x 2 (time of measurement x intervention) analysis of variance with repeated measures. The statistic significance level was set at p ≤ 0.05. Neither for the main effect of time of measurement (F(1,23) = .93, p = .36, f = .20) nor for the interaction of time of measurement x intervention (F(1,23) = 1.99, p = .17, f = 0.29) significant p-values were found. However, the effect size indicates a mean interaction effect with a tendency of greater pre-post improvements under the three-minute foam rolling condition. Changes in maximal force did not correlate with changes in EMG-activity (r = .02, p = .95 in the short and r = -.11, p = .65 in the long rolling condition). Results support findings of previous studies and suggest a positive potential for use of the foam roll as a means for keeping muscle force at least at the same performance level while leading to an increase in flexibility.

Keywords: application volume differences, foam rolling, isometric maximal force, self-myofascial release

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Authors: N. V. Klassen, A. A. Vasin, A. M. Likhter, K. A. Voronin, A. V. Mariasevskaya, I. M. Shmit’ko

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Regular patterning in mixtures of bio-polymers (chitosan and collagen) and nanoparticles in water suspensions has been found by means of optical microscopy. The patterning was created either by external electrical field of moderate amplitude (200–1000 v/cm) or spontaneously. Simultaneously with the patterning pushing out of water drops mixed with nanoparticles to the external regions was observed. These phenomena are explained by interactions of charged bio-polymers and nanoparticles with external and internal electrical fields as well as with the regions of decreased dielectrical permittivity surrounding nano-objects in water which possesses anomalously high dielectrical permittivity. Electrical charges of opposite signs of the nano-objects induce their mutual attraction whereas dipole moments created around these nano-objects by the electrical fields are pushing these particles to the regions with lower fields. Due to this reason, non-homogeneities of dielectrical permittivity around nano-objects immersed into water suspension induces mutual repulsion of the objects. This spatial decrease of this repulsion with the inter-particle distances is more sharp than that of the Coulomb attraction. So, at longer distances, the attractions are stronger whereas at shorter distances the repulsion prevails. At a certain distance these two forces compensate each other creating the equilibrium state of the mixture of nano-objects with opposite charges. When the groups of positive and negative nano-objects consist from identical particles, quasi-periodical pattern of the suspension is observed like mesoscopic two-dimensional super-crystal. These results can clarify the mechanisms of healing of internal organs with direct or alternative electrical fields.

Keywords: bio-polymers, chitosan, collagen, nanoparticles, Coulomb attraction, polarization repulsion, periodical patterning, electrical low frequency resonances

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Authors: Racha El Kadiri, Mohamed Sultan, Henrique Momm, Zachary Blair, Rachel Schultz, Tamer Al-Bayoumi

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The Mediterranean Basin is a very diverse region of nationalities and climate zones, with a strong dependence on agricultural activities. Predicting long term (with a lead of 1 to 12 months) rainfall, and future droughts could contribute in a sustainable management of water resources and economical activities. In this study, an integrated approach was adopted to construct predictive tools with lead times of 0 to 12 months to forecast rainfall amounts over nine subzones of the Mediterranean Basin region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire, assess and intercorrelate temporal remote sensing-based rainfall products (e.g. The CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP]) throughout the investigation period (1979 to 2016), (2) acquire and assess monthly values for all of the climatic indices influencing the regional and global climatic patterns (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); (3) delineate homogenous climatic regions and select nine pilot study zones, (4) apply data mining methods (e.g. neural networks, principal component analyses) to extract relationships between the observed rainfall and the controlling factors (i.e. climatic indices with multiple lead-time periods) and (5) use the constructed predictive tools to forecast monthly rainfall and dry and wet periods. Preliminary results indicate that rainfall and dry/wet periods were successfully predicted with lead zones of 0 to 12 months using the adopted methodology, and that the approach is more accurately applicable in the southern Mediterranean region.

Keywords: rainfall, neural networks, climatic indices, Mediterranean

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Authors: Milica Carević, Katarina Banjanac, Marija ĆOrović, Ana Milivojević, Nevena Prlainović, Aleksandar Marinković, Dejan Bezbradica

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Nowadays, considering the growing awareness of functional food beneficial effects on human health, due attention is dedicated to the research in the field of obtaining new prominent products exhibiting improved physiological and physicochemical characteristics. Therefore, different approaches to valuable bioactive compounds synthesis have been proposed. β-Galactosidase, for example, although mainly utilized as hydrolytic enzyme, proved to be a promising tool for these purposes. Namely, under the particular conditions, such as high lactose concentration, elevated temperatures and low water activities, reaction of galactose moiety transfer to free hydroxyl group of the alternative acceptor (e.g. different sugars, alcohols or aromatic compounds) can generate a wide range of potentially interesting products. Up to now, galacto-oligosaccharides and lactulose have attracted the most attention due to their inherent prebiotic properties. The goal of this study was to obtain a novel product sorbitol galactoside, using the similar reaction mechanism, namely transgalactosylation reaction catalyzed by β-galactosidase from Aspergillus oryzae. By using sugar alcohol (sorbitol) as alternative acceptor, a diverse mixture of potential prebiotics is produced, enabling its more favorable functional features. Nevertheless, an introduction of alternative acceptor into the reaction mixture contributed to the complexity of reaction scheme, since several potential reaction pathways were introduced. Therefore, the thorough optimization using response surface method (RSM), in order to get an insight into different parameter (lactose concentration, sorbitol to lactose molar ratio, enzyme concentration, NaCl concentration and reaction time) influences, as well as their mutual interactions on product yield and productivity, was performed. In view of product yield maximization, the obtained model predicted optimal lactose concentration 500 mM, the molar ratio of sobitol to lactose 9, enzyme concentration 0.76 mg/ml, concentration of NaCl 0.8M, and the reaction time 7h. From the aspect of productivity, the optimum substrate molar ratio was found to be 1, while the values for other factors coincide. In order to additionally, improve enzyme efficiency and enable its reuse and potential continual application, immobilization of β-galactosidase onto tailored silica nanoparticles was performed. These non-porous fumed silica nanoparticles (FNS)were chosen on the basis of their biocompatibility and non-toxicity, as well as their advantageous mechanical and hydrodinamical properties. However, in order to achieve better compatibility between enzymes and the carrier, modifications of the silica surface using amino functional organosilane (3-aminopropyltrimethoxysilane, APTMS) were made. Obtained support with amino functional groups (AFNS) enabled high enzyme loadings and, more importantly, extremely high expressed activities, approximately 230 mg proteins/g and 2100 IU/g, respectively. Moreover, this immobilized preparation showed high affinity towards sorbitol galactoside synthesis. Therefore, the findings of this study could provided a valuable contribution to the efficient production of physiologically active galactosides in immobilized enzyme reactors.

Keywords: β-galactosidase, immobilization, silica nanoparticles, transgalactosylation

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Authors: Suvorov Vasyl, Filipchuk Viktor

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Developmental Dysplasia of the Hip (DDH) is a frequent pathology in pediatric orthopedist’s practice. Neglected or residual cases of DDH in walking patients are usually treated using pelvic osteotomies. Plastic changes take place in hinge points due to acetabulum reorientation during surgery. Classically described hinge points and a traditional division of pelvic osteotomies on reshaping and reorientation are currently debated. The purpose of this article was to evaluate biomechanical changes during the most commonly used pelvic osteotomies (Salter, Dega, Pemberton) for DDH treatment in pediatric patients. Methods: virtual pelvic models of 2- and 6-years old patients were created, material properties were assigned, pelvic osteotomies were simulated and biomechanical changes were evaluated using finite element analysis (FEA). Results: it was revealed that the patient's age has an impact on pelvic bones and cartilages density (in younger patients the pelvic elements are more pliable - p<0.05). Stress distribution after each of the abovementioned pelvic osteotomy was assessed in 2- and 6-years old patients’ pelvic models; hinge points were evaluated. The new term "restriction point" was introduced, which means a place where restriction of acetabular deformity correction occurs. Pelvic ligaments attachment points were mainly these restriction points. Conclusions: it was found out that there are no purely reshaping and reorientation pelvic osteotomies as previously believed; the pelvic ring acts as a unit in carrying out the applied load. Biomechanical overload of triradiate cartilage during Salter osteotomy in 2-years old patient and in 2- and 6-years old patients during Pemberton osteotomy was revealed; overload of the posterior cortical layer in the greater sciatic notch in 2-years old patient during Dega osteotomy was revealed. Level of Evidence – Level IV, prognostic.

Keywords: developmental dysplasia of the hip, pelvic osteotomy, finite element analysis, hinge point, biomechanics

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Authors: Fereshteh M. Haskouei, Habib Alimohammadian

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Magnetic susceptibility (χ) is operational to identify of late quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles in loess-paleosol sequences. It is well accepted that many loess-paleosol sequences bear witness to cold-dry/warm-humid periods, well known as glacial-interglacial cycles, respectively. For this study, loess-paleosol sequence of north-east of Iran was magnetically investigated. The study area is situated at about 8 km away of Neka city, on the main road of Sari-Behshahr, in Mazandaran Province, north of Iran. The youngest deposits of study area are the late Quaternary wind-blown accumulations. In this study, the total number of 117 samples was collected from loess-paleosols units. After that, the natural remnant magnetization (NRM) and magnetic susceptibility (MS) of the samples were measured. Variation of MS of more than 110 loess samples was plotted to reveal the correlation of the MS and paleoclimatic changes. This study aims reconstruction of climatic changes (glacial-interglacial and stadials-interstadials cycles). To confirm our results we compared MS (χ) and the curves of other investigations in paleoclimatology. This correspondence abled us to recognize worldly events in the study area such as: Younger Dryas, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), deglaciation of Northern Hemisphere etc. The obtained magnetic data indicate that during almost 50 ka, at least two glacial-interglacial periods occurred in north-east of Iran. Further, variation of χ values revealed short period of climatically cycles known as stadials-interstadials. We recognized 4 stadials and a single stadial as colder sub-periods for S₀ (recently soil-paleosol) and S₂ (lower paleosol), respectively, Moreover, we recognized 6 warmer sub-periods (interstadials) for L₁ (upper loess) and one interstadial L₂ (lower loess).

Keywords: glacial-interglacial cycles, Iran, last glacial maximum (LGM), loess, magnetic susceptibility (χ), Neka, stadials-interstadials sub-periods, younger dryas

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Authors: Alexis Thouki

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In our post-Christian societies, ecclesiastical heritage acquired a new extrovert profile aiming to reach out an increasingly diverse audience. In this context, the various motivations, interests, personalities and cultural exchanges, found in the ‘post-modern pilgrimage’, bequeath a hybrid and multidimensional character to religious tourism education. In consequence, churches have acquired the challenging role of enriching visitors cultural and spiritual capital. Despite this promising diversification to relate, reveal and provoke constructive discourses, due to the various ‘conflicting interests’, practitioners attempt to tame the rich in symbolism and meanings religious environment through ‘neutral interpretations’. This paper aims to present the results of an ongoing developing strategy related to the presentation of contentious meanings in English churches. The paper will explore some of the underlying issues related to the capacity of ‘neutrality’ to spark, downplay or eliminate contentious conversations relating to the cultural, religious, and social dimension of Christian cultural heritage thematology. In an effort to understand this issue, the paper examines the concept of neutrality and what it stands for, executing a discourse analysis in the semantic context in which the theological lexicon is interwoven with the cultural and social meanings of sacred sites. Following that, the paper examines whether the preferable interpretive strategies meet the post-modern interpretative framework which is marked by polysemy and critical active engagement. The ultimate aim of the paper is to investigate the hypothesis that the preferable neutral strategies, managing the ‘conflicting’ demands of worshippers and visitors, result in the uneven treatment of both, the religious and historical spirit of the place.

Keywords: contentious dialogue, interpretation, meaning making, religious tourism

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Authors: Velitchko G. Tzatchkov, Petronilo E. Cortes-Mejia, J. Manuel Rodriguez-Varela, Jesus Figueroa-Vazquez

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Hydraulic headloss, expressed by the values of friction factor f and Manning’s coefficient n, is an important parameter in designing drainage pipes. Their values normally are taken from manufacturer recommendations, many times without sufficient experimental support. To our knowledge, currently there is no standard procedure for hydraulically testing such pipes. As a result of research carried out at the Mexican Institute of Water Technology, a laboratory testing procedure was proposed and applied on 6 and 12 inches diameter polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and high-density dual wall polyethylene pipe (HDPE) drainage pipes. While the PVC pipe is characterized by naturally smooth interior and exterior walls, the dual wall HDPE pipe has corrugated exterior wall and, although considered smooth, a slightly wavy interior wall. The pipes were tested at full and partially full pipe flow conditions. The tests for full pipe flow were carried out on a 31.47 m long pipe at flow velocities between 0.11 and 4.61 m/s. Water was supplied by gravity from a 10 m-high tank in some of the tests, and from a 3.20 m-high tank in the rest of the tests. Pressure was measured independently with piezometer readings and pressure transducers. The flow rate was measured by an ultrasonic meter. For the partially full pipe flow the pipe was placed inside an existing 49.63 m long zero slope (horizontal) channel. The flow depth was measured by piezometers located along the pipe, for flow rates between 2.84 and 35.65 L/s, measured by a rectangular weir. The observed flow profiles were then compared to computer generated theoretical gradually varied flow profiles for different Manning’s n values. It was found that Manning’s n, that normally is assumed constant for a given pipe material, is in fact dependent on flow velocity and pipe diameter for full pipe flow, and on flow depth for partially full pipe flow. Contrary to the expected higher values of n and f for the HDPE pipe, virtually the same values were obtained for the smooth interior wall PVC pipe and the slightly wavy interior wall HDPE pipe. The explanation of this fact was found in Henry Morris’ theory for smooth turbulent conduit flow over isolated roughness elements. Following Morris, three categories of the flow regimes are possible in a rough conduit: isolated roughness (or semi smooth turbulent) flow, wake interference (or hyper turbulent) flow, and skimming (or quasi-smooth) flow. Isolated roughness flow is characterized by friction drag turbulence over the wall between the roughness elements, independent vortex generation, and dissipation around each roughness element. In this regime, the wake and vortex generation zones at each element develop and dissipate before attaining the next element. The longitudinal spacing of the roughness elements and their height are important influencing agents. Given the slightly wavy form of the HDPE pipe interior wall, the flow for this type of pipe belongs to this category. Based on that theory, an equation for the hydraulic friction factor was obtained. The obtained coefficient values are going to be used in the Mexican design standards.

Keywords: drainage plastic pipes, hydraulic headloss, hydraulic friction factor, Manning’s n

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Authors: Zhiguo Yang, Xiangan Yue, Minglu Shao, Yue Yang, Rongjie Yan

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It is difficult to realize deep profile control because of the small pore-throats and easy water channeling in low-permeability heterogeneous reservoir, and the traditional polymer microspheres have the contradiction between injection and plugging. In order to solve this contradiction, the controllable self-aggregating colloidal particles (CSA) containing amide groups on the surface of microspheres was prepared based on emulsion polymerization of styrene and acrylamide. The dispersed solution of CSA colloidal particles, whose particle size is much smaller than the diameter of pore-throats, was injected into the reservoir. When the microspheres migrated to the deep part of reservoir, , these CSA colloidal particles could automatically self-aggregate into large particle clusters under the action of the shielding agent and the control agent, so as to realize the plugging of the water channels. In this paper, the morphology, temperature resistance and self-aggregation properties of CSA microspheres were studied by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and bottle test. The results showed that CSA microspheres exhibited heterogeneous core-shell structure, good dispersion, and outstanding thermal stability. The microspheres remain regular and uniform spheres at 100℃ after aging for 35 days. With the increase of the concentration of the cations, the self-aggregation time of CSA was gradually shortened, and the influence of bivalent cations was greater than that of monovalent cations. Core flooding experiments showed that CSA polymer microspheres have good injection properties, CSA particle clusters can effective plug the water channels and migrate to the deep part of the reservoir for profile control.

Keywords: heterogeneous reservoir, deep profile control, emulsion polymerization, colloidal particles, plugging characteristic

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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