Search results for: vessel's survival probability

Authors: Taufik Hidayat, Yudha Nurhantari, Bambang U. D. Rianto

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Introduction: The examination of the Short Tandem Repeats (STR) locus on nuclear DNA is very useful in solving the paternity cases. The purpose of this study is to know the description of paternity cases and paternity index/probability of paternity analysis based on Indonesian allele frequency at Sardjito Hospital Yogyakarta. Method: This was an observational study with cross-sectional analytic method. Population and sample were all cases of disputed paternity from January 2011 to June 2015 that fulfill the inclusion and exclusion criteria and were examined at Forensic Medicine Unit of Sardjito Hospital, Medical Faculty of Gadjah Mada University. The paternity index was calculated with EasyDNA Program by Fung (2013). Analysis of the study was conducted by comparing the results through unpaired categorical test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This study was designed with 95% confidence interval (CI) with α = 5% and significance level is p < 0,05. Results: From 42 disputed paternity cases we obtained trio paternity cases were 32 cases (76.2%) and duo without a mother was 10 cases (23.8%). The majority of the fathers' estimated ages were 21-30 years (33.3%) and the mother's age was 31-40 years (38.1%). The majority of the ages of children examined for paternity were under 12 months (47.6%). The majority of ethnic clients are Javanese. Conclusion of inclusion was 57.1%, and exclusion was 42.9%. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test obtained p-value = 0.673. Conclusion: There is no significant difference between paternity index/probability of paternity based on Indonesian allele frequency between trio and duo of paternity.

Keywords: disputed paternity, paternity index, probability of paternity, short tandem

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Authors: Mulue Girmay Gebreslasie

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Entomopathogenic fungi are naturally safe and eco-friendly biological agents. Their potential of host specificity and ease handling made them appealing options to substitute synthetic pesticides in pest control programs. However, they are highly delicate and unstable under field conditions. Therefore, the current experiment was held to search out persistent fungal strains by defining the relationship between invitro heat tolerance and field persistence. Current results on leaf and soil persistence assay revealed that strains of Metarhizium species, M. pingshaense (F2685), M. pingshaense (MS2) and M. brunneum (F709) exhibit maximum cumulative CFUs count, relative survival rate and least percent of CFUs reductions showed significant difference at 7 days and 28 days post inoculations (dpi) in hot seasons from sampled soils and leaves and in cold season from soil samples. Whereas relative survival of B. brongniartii (TNO6) found significantly higher in cold weather leaf treatment application as compared to hot season and found as persistent as other fungal strains, while higher deterioration of fungal conidia seen with M. pingshaense (MS2). In the current study, strains of Beauveria brongniartii (TNO6) and Cordyceps javanica (Czy-LP) were relatively vulnerable in field condition with utmost colony forming units (CFUs) reduction and least survival rates. Further, the relationship of the two parameters (heat tolerance and field persistence) was seen with strong linear positive correlations elucidated that heat test could be used in selection of field persistent fungal strains for hot season applications.

Keywords: integrated pest management, biopesticides, Insect pathology and microbial control, entomology

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Authors: Sudeshna Mukherjee, Leena Fageria, R. Venkataramana Dilip, Rajdeep Chowdhury, Jitendra Panwar

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Metal nanoparticles in recent years have gained importance in cancer therapy due to their enhanced permeability retention effect. Among various nanomaterials, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) have received considerable attention due to their unique properties like conductivity, chemical stability, relative lower toxicity and outstanding therapeutic potential, such as anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial and anti-cancerous activities. In this study, we took a greener approach to synthesize silver nanoparticle from fungus and analyze its effects on both epithelial and mesenchymal derived cancer cells. Much research has been done on nanoparticle-induced apoptosis, but little is known about its role in autophagy. In our study, the silver nanoparticles were seen to induce autophagy which was analyzed by studying the expression of several autophagy markers like, LC3B-II and ATG genes. Monodansylcadaverine (MDC) assay also revealed the induction of autophagy upon treatment with AgNPs. Inhibition of autophagy by chloroquine resulted in increased cell death suggesting autophagy as a survival strategy adopted by the cells. In parallel to autophagy induction, silver nanoparticles induced ROS accumulation. Interestingly, autophagy inhibition by chloroquine increased ROS level, resulting in enhanced cell death. We further analyzed MAPK signaling upon AgNP treatment. It was observed that along with autophagy, activation of JNK signaling served as pro-survival while ERK signaling served as a pro-death signal. Our results provide valuable insights into the role of autophagy upon AgNP exposure and provide cues to probabilistic strategies to effectively sensitize cancer cells.

Keywords: autophagy, JNK signalling, reactive oxygen species, silver nanoparticles

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Authors: Liang Ning, Chung Hau Yin

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Angiogenesis is the process of new blood vessel development. It has been recognized as a therapeutic target for blocking cancer growth four decades ago. Vascular sprouting is initiated by pro-angiogenic factors. Vascular endothelial cell growth factor (VEGF) plays a central role in angiogenic initiation, many patients with cancer or ocular neovascularization have been benefited from anti-VEGF therapy. Emerging approaches impacting in the later stages of vessel remodeling and maturation are expected to improve clinical efficacy. TIE receptor as well as the corresponding angiopoietin ligands, were identified as another endothelial cell specific receptor tyrosine kinase signaling system. Much efforts were made to reduce the activity of angiopoietin-TIE receptor axis. Two eudesmane-type sesquiterpenes from laggera alata, namely, 15-dihydrocostic acid and ilicic acid were found with strong anti-angiogenic properties in zebrafish model. Meanwhile, the mRNA expression levels of VEGFR2 and TIE2 pathway related genes were down-regulated in the sesquiterpenes treated zebrafish embryos. Besides, in human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs), the sesquiterpenes have the ability to inhibit VEGF-induced HUVECs proliferation and migration at non-toxic concentration. Moreover, angiopoietin-2 induced TIE2 phosphorylation was inhibited by the sesquiterpenes, the inhibitory effect was detected in angiopoietin-1 induced HUVECs proliferation as well. Thus, we hypothesized the anti-angiogenic activity of the compounds may via the inhibition of VEGF and TIE2 related pathways. How the compounds come into play as the pathways inhibitors need to be evaluated in the future.

Keywords: Laggera alata, eudesmane-type sesquiterpene, anti-angiogenesis, VEGF, angiopoietin, TIE2

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Authors: Ashirgul Kozhagulova, Ainash Shabdirova, Galym Tokazhanov, Minh Nguyen

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The synthetic rocks have been advantageous over the natural rocks in terms of availability and the consistent studying the impact of a particular parameter. The artificial rocks can be fabricated using variety of techniques such as mixing sand and Portland cement or gypsum, firing the mixture of sand and fine powder of borosilicate glass or by in-situ precipitation of calcite solution. In this study, sodium silicate solution has been used as the cementing agent for the quartz sand. The molded soft cylindrical sandstone samples are placed in the gas-tight pressure vessel, where the hardening of the material takes place as the chemical reaction between carbon dioxide and the silicate solution progresses. The vessel allows uniform disperse of carbon dioxide and control over the ambient gas pressure. Current paper shows how the bonding material is initially distributed in the intergranular space and the surface of the sand particles by the usage of Electron Microscopy and the Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy. During the study, the strength of the cement bond as a function of temperature is observed. The impact of cementing agent dosage on the micro and macro characteristics of the sandstone is investigated. The analysis of the cement bond at micro level helps to trace the changes to particles bonding damage after a potential yielding. Shearing behavior and compressional response have been examined resulting in the estimation of the shearing resistance and cohesion force of the sandstone. These are considered to be main input values to the mathematical prediction models of sand production from weak clastic oil reservoir formations.

Keywords: artificial sanstone, cement bond, microstructure, SEM, triaxial shearing

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Authors: B. Ramakrishna, S. Sivamurthy Reddy

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The various types of aggregates such as granite, dolerite, Quartzite, dolomitic limestone, limestone and river gravel were used to produce the concrete with 28-day target compressive strength of 35, 60, and 80 Mpa. The compressive strength of concrete, as well as aggregates, was measured to study the effect of rupture probability of aggregate on the fracture surface of the concrete. Also, the petrographic studies were carried out to study the texture, type of minerals present and their relative proportions in various types of aggregates. The concrete of various grades produced with the same aggregate has shown a rise in RPCA with strength. However, the above relationship has ceased to exist in the concretes of the same grade, made of different types of aggregates. The carbonate aggregates namely Limestone and Dolomitic limestone have produced concrete with higher RPCA irrespective of the strength of concrete. The mode of origin, texture and mineralogical composition of aggregates have a significant impact on their pulse velocity and thereby the pulse velocity of concrete.

Keywords: RPCA, DL, G, LS, RG

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Authors: Saha Saradindu, Das Payel, Somdeb BoseDasgupta

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Tuberculosis caused by Mycobacteria tuberculosis is a dreadful disease and more so with the advent of extreme and total drug-resistant species. Mycobacterial pathogenesis is an ever-changing paradigm from phagosome maturation block to phagosomal escape into macrophage cytosol and finally acid tolerance and survival inside the lysosome. Mycobacteria are adept at subverting the host immune response by highjacking host cell signaling and secreting virulence factors. One such virulence factor is a ser/thr kinase; Protein kinase G (PknG), which is known to prevent phagosome maturation. The host substrates of PknG, allowing successful pathogenesis still remain an enigma. Hence we carried out a comparative phosphoproteomic screen and identified a number of substrates phosphorylated by PknG. We characterized some of these substrates in vivo and in vitro and observed that PknG mediated phosphorylation of these substrates leads to reduced TNFa production as well as decreased response to TNFa induced macrophage necroptosis, thus enabling mycobacterial survival and proliferation.

Keywords: mycobacteria, Protein kinase G, phosphoproteomics, necroptosis

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Authors: Arafat Husain

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The lubricants are one of the most used resource in today’s world. Lot of the superpowers are dependent on the lubricant resource for their country to function. To see that the lubricants are not adulterated we need to develop some efficient ways and to see which fluid has been added to the lubricant. So to observe the these malpractices in the lubricant we need to develop a method. We take a elastic ball and through it at probability circle in the submerged in the lubricant at a fixed force and see the distance of pitching and the point of fall. Then we the ratio of distance of falling to the distance of pitching and if the measured ratio is greater than one the fluid is less viscous and if the ratio is lesser than the lubricant is viscous. We will check the falling point of pure lubricant at fixed force and every pure lubricant would have a fixed falling point. After that we would adulterate the lubricant and note the falling point and if the falling point is less than the standard value then adulterate is solid and if the adulterate is liquid the falling point will be more than the standard value. Hence the comparison with the standard falling point will give the efficiency of the lubricant.

Keywords: falling point of lubricant, falling point ratios, probability circle, octane number

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Authors: Anna Rudzińska, Katarzyna Szklener, Pola Juchaniuk, Anna Rodzajweska, Katarzyna Machulska-Ciuraj, Monika Rychlik- Grabowska, Michał łOziński, Agnieszka Kolak-Bruks, SłAwomir Mańdziuk

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Introduction: Immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) belongs to the modern forms of anti-cancer treatment. Due to the constant development and continuous research in the field of ICI, many aspects of the treatment are yet to be discovered. One of the less researched aspects of ICI treatment is the influence of the adverse effects on the treatment success rate. It is suspected that adverse events in the course of the ICI treatment indicate a better response rate and correlate with longer progression-free- survival. Methodology: The research was conducted with the usage of the documentation of the Department of Clinical Oncology and Chemotherapy. Data of the patients with a lung cancer diagnosis who were treated between 2019-2022 and received ICI treatment were analyzed. Results: Out of over 133 patients whose data was analyzed, the vast majority were diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer. The majority of the patients did not experience adverse effects. Most adverse effects reported were classified as grade 1 or grade 2 according to CTCAE classification. Most adverse effects involved skin, thyroid and liver toxicity. Statistical significance was found for the adverse effect incidence and overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) (p=0,0263) and for the time of toxicity onset and OS and PFS (p<0,001). The number of toxicity sites was statistically significant for prolonged PFS (p=0.0315). The highest OS was noted in the group presenting grade 1 and grade 2 adverse effects. Conclusions: Obtained results confirm the existence of the prolonged OS and PFS in the adverse-effects-charged patients, mostly in the group presenting mild to intermediate (Grade 1 and Grade 2) adverse effects and late toxicity onset. Simultaneously our results suggest a correlation between treatment response rate and the toxicity grade of the adverse effects and the time of the toxicity onset. Similar results were obtained in several similar research conducted - with the proven tendency of better survival in mild and moderate toxicity; meanwhile, other studies in the area suggested an advantage in patients with any toxicity regardless of the grade. The contradictory results strongly suggest the need for further research on this topic, with a focus on additional factors influencing the course of the treatment.

Keywords: adverse effects, immunotherapy, lung cancer, PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Model updating method has received increasing attention in damage detection structures based on measured modal parameters. Therefore, a probability-based damage detection (PBDD) procedure based on a model updating procedure is presented in this paper, in which a one-stage model-based damage identification technique based on the dynamic features of a structure is investigated. The presented framework uses a finite element updating method with a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the uncertainty caused by measurement noise. Enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) is used as the main algorithm for model updating. Ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM) is a multiagent algorithm based on the ideal gas molecular movement. Ideal gas molecules disperse rapidly in different directions and cover all the space inside. This is embedded in the high speed of molecules, collisions between them and with the surrounding barriers. In IGMM algorithm to accomplish the optimal solutions, the initial population of gas molecules is randomly generated and the governing equations related to the velocity of gas molecules and collisions between those are utilized. In this paper, an enhanced version of IGMM, which removes unchanged variables after specified iterations, is developed. The proposed method is implemented on two numerical examples in the field of structural damage detection. The results show that the proposed method can perform well and competitive in PBDD of structures.

Keywords: enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM), ideal gas molecular movement (IGMM), model updating method, probability-based damage detection (PBDD), uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Angela T. H. Kwan, Wenjun Liang, Jack Wellington, Mohammad Mofatteh, Thanh N. Nguyen, Pingzhong Fu, Juanmei Chen, Zile Yan, Weijuan Wu, Yongting Zhou, Shuiquan Yang, Sijie Zhou, Yimin Chen

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Background: Endovascular Therapy (EVT)—in the form of mechanical thrombectomy—following intravenous thrombolysis is the standard gold treatment for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion (LVO). It is well established that an ASPECTS ≥ 7 is associated with an increased likelihood of positive post-EVT outcomes, as compared to an ASPECTS < 7. There is also prognostic utility in coupling posterior circulation ASPECTS (pc-ASPECTS) with magnetic resonance imaging for evaluating the post-EVT functional outcome. However, the value of pc-ASPECTS applied to CT must be explored further to determine its usefulness in predicting functional outcomes following EVT. Objective: In this study, we aimed to determine whether pc-ASPECTS on CT can predict post-EVT functional outcomes among patients with AIS due to LVO. Methods: A total of 247 consecutive patients aged 18 and over receiving EVT for LVO-related AIS were recruited into a prospective database. The data were retrospectively analyzed between March 2019 to February 2022 from two comprehensive tertiary care stroke centers: Foshan Sanshui District People’s Hospital and First People's Hospital of Foshan in China. Patient parameters included EVT within 24hrs of symptom onset, premorbid modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤ 2, presence of distal and terminal cerebral blood vessel occlusion, and subsequent 24–72-hour post-stroke onset CT scan. Univariate comparisons were performed using the Fisher exact test or χ2 test for categorical variables and the Mann–Whitney U test for continuous variables. A p-value of ≤ 0.05 was statistically significant. Results: A total of 247 patients met the inclusion criteria; however, 3 were excluded due to the absence of post-CTs and 8 for pre-EVT ASPECTS < 7. Overall, 236 individuals were examined: 196 anterior circulation ischemic strokes and 40 posterior strokes of basilar artery occlusion. We found that both baseline post- and pc-ASPECTS ≥ 7 serve as strong positive markers of favorable outcomes at 90 days post-EVT. Moreover, lower rates of inpatient mortality/hospice discharge, 90-day mortality, and 90-day poor outcome were observed. Moreover, patients in the post-ASPECTS ≥ 7 anterior circulation group had shorter door-to-recanalization time (DRT), puncture-to-recanalization time (PRT), and last known normal-to-puncture-time (LKNPT). Conclusion: Patients of anterior and posterior circulation ischemic strokes with baseline post- and pc-ASPECTS ≥ 7 may benefit from EVT.

Keywords: endovascular therapy, thrombectomy, large vessel occlusion, cerebral ischemic stroke, ASPECTS

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Authors: Robert Vanderburg, Nicholas Gibson

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Objectives: There has been an increased focus in education students’ mathematics skills in the last two years. Universities have, specifically, had problems teaching students struggling with mathematics. This paper focuses on the ability of a digital platform to significantly improve mathematics skills for struggling students. Methods: 32 students who demonstrated low scores on a mathematics test were selected to take part in a one-month tutorial program using a digital mathematics portal. Students were provided feedback for questions posted on the portal and a fortnightly tutorial session. Results: A pre-test post-test design was analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The analysis suggested that students improved skills in algebra, geometry, statistics, probability, ratios, fractions, and probability. Conclusion: Distance university students can improve their mathematics skills using a digital platform.

Keywords: digital education, distance education, higher education, mathematics education

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Authors: Deepa Das, Susmita Das

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Cognitive Radio (CR) is an emerging technology to combat the spectrum scarcity issues. This is achieved by consistently sensing the spectrum, and detecting the under-utilized frequency bands without causing undue interference to the primary user (PU). In soft decision fusion (SDF) based cooperative spectrum sensing, various evolutionary algorithms have been discussed, which optimize the weight coefficient vector for maximizing the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the hybrid invasive weed optimization and particle swarm optimization (IWO/PSO) algorithm as a fast and global optimization method, which improves the detection probability with a lesser sensing time. Then, the efficiency of this algorithm is compared with the standard invasive weed optimization (IWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA) and other conventional SDF based methods on the basis of convergence and detection probability.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, soft decision fusion, GA, PSO, IWO, hybrid IWO/PSO

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Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing

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Authors: Tettey Afi Pamela, Sotaro Fujii, Hidetoshi Saito, Kawaii Koichiro

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Introduction: Organisms employ adaptive mechanisms when faced with any stressor or risk of being wiped out. This has made it possible for them to survive in harsh environmental conditions such as increasing temperature, low pH, and anoxia. Some of the mechanisms they utilize include the expression of heat shock proteins, synthesis of cryoprotectants, and anhydrobiosis. Heat shock proteins (HSPs) have been widely studied to determine their involvement in stress tolerance among various organism, of which chironomid species have been no exception. We examined the survival and expression of genes encoding five (5) heat shock proteins (HSP70, HSP67, HSP60, HSP27, and HSP23) from Chironomus sulfurosus larvae reared from 1st instar at 25°C, 30°C, 35°C, and 40°C. Results: The highest survival rate was recorded at 30°C, followed by 25°C, then 35°C. Only a small percentage of C. sulfurosus survived at 40°C (14.5%). With regards to HSPs expression, some HSPs responded to an increase in high temperature. The relative expression levels were lowest at 30°C for HSP70, HSP60, HSP27, and HSP23. At 25°C and 40°C, HSP70, HSP67, HSP60, HSP27, and HSP23 had the highest expression. At 35°C, all had the lowest expression. Discussion: The expression of heat shock proteins varies from one species to another. We designated the genes HSP 70, HSP 67, HSP 60, HSP 27, and HSP 23 genes based on transcriptome analysis of C. sulfurosus. Our study can be termed as a long-heat shock study as C. sulfurosus was reared from the first instar to the fourth instar, and this might have led to a continuous induction of HSPs at 25°C. 40°C had the lowest survival but highest HSPs expression as C. sulfurosus larvae had to utilize HSPs for sustenance. These results and future high-throughput studies at both the transcriptome and proteome level will improve the information needed to predict the future geographic distribution of these species within the context of global warming.

Keywords: chironomid, heat shock proteins, high temperature, heat shock protein expression

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Authors: Devin Simmons

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At the USDOT’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics, a biannual census of ferry operators in the U.S. is conducted, with results such as route mileage used to determine federal funding levels for operators. AIS data allows for the possibility of using GIS software and geographical methods to confirm operator-reported mileage for individual ferry routes. As part of the USDOT’s work on the ferry census, an algorithm was developed that uses AIS data for ferry vessels in conjunction with known ferry terminal locations to model the average route travelled for use as both a cartographic product and confirmation of operator-reported mileage. AIS data from each vessel is first analyzed to determine individual journeys based on the vessel’s velocity, and changes in velocity over time. These trips are then converted to geographic linestring objects. Using the terminal locations, the algorithm then determines whether the trip represented a known ferry route. Given a large enough dataset, routes will be represented by multiple trip linestrings, which are then filtered by DBSCAN spatial clustering to remove outliers. Finally, these remaining trips are ready to be averaged into one route. The algorithm interpolates the point on each trip linestring that represents the start point. From these start points, a centroid is calculated, and the first point of the average route is determined. Each trip is interpolated again to find the point that represents one percent of the journey’s completion, and the centroid of those points is used as the next point in the average route, and so on until 100 points have been calculated. Routes created using this algorithm have shown demonstrable improvement over previous methods, which included the implementation of a LOESS model. Additionally, the algorithm greatly reduces the amount of manual digitizing needed to visualize ferry activity.

Keywords: ferry vessels, transportation, modeling, AIS data

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Authors: A. Kolendo

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Pacific Islands are one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. Sea level rise and accelerating storm surge continuously threaten the communities' habitats on low-lying atolls. With scientific predictions of encroaching tides on their land, the Islanders have been informed about the need for future relocation planning. However, some communities oppose such retreat strategies through the reasoning that comprehends current climatic changes through the lenses of the biblical ark of Noah. This parable states God's promise never to flood the Earth again and never deprive people of their land and habitats. Several interpretations of this parable emerged in Oceania, prompting either climate action or denial. Resistance to relocation planning expressed through Christian thoughts led religion to be perceived as a barrier to dialogue between the Islanders and scientists. Since climate change concerns natural processes, the attitudes towards environmental stewardship prompt the communities' responses to it; some Christian teachings indicate humanity's responsibility over the environment, whereas others ascertain the people's dominion, which prompts resistance and sometimes denial. With church denominations and their various environmental standpoints, competing responses to climate change emerged in Oceania. Before miss-ionization, traditional knowledge had guided the environmental sphere, influencing current Christian teachings. Each atoll characterizes a distinctive manner of traditional knowledge; however, the unique relationship with nature unites all islands. The interconnectedness between the land, sea and people indicates the integrity between the communities and their environments. Such a factor influences the comprehension of Noah's story in the context of climate change that threatens their habitats. Pacific Islanders experience climate change through the slow disappearance of their homelands. However, the Western world perceives it as a global issue that will affect the population in the long-term perspective. Therefore, the Islanders seek to comprehend this global phenomenon in a local context that reads climate change as the Great Deluge. Accordingly, the safety measures that this parable promotes compensate for the danger of climate change. The rainbow covenant gives hope in God's promise never to flood the Earth again. At the same time, Noah's survival relates to the Islanders' current situation. Since these communities have the lowest carbon emissions rate, their contribution to anthropogenic climate change is scarce. Therefore, the lack of environmental sin would contextualize them as contemporary Noah with the ultimate survival of sea level rise. This study aims to defy religion constituting a barrier through secondary data analysis from a risk compensation perspective. Instead, religion is portrayed as a source of knowledge that enables comprehension of the communities' situation. By demonstrating that the Pacific Islanders utilize Noah's story as a vessel for coping with the danger of climate change, the study argues that religion provides safety measures that compensate for the future projections of land's disappearance. The purpose is to build a bridge between religious communities and scientific bodies and ultimately bring an understanding of two diverse perspectives. By addressing the practical challenges of interdisciplinary research with faith-based systems, this study uplifts the voices of communities and portrays their experiences expressed through Christian thoughts.

Keywords: Christianity, climate change, existential threat, Pacific Islands, story of Noah

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Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

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For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: Pedro Gomes, Luís Sá Castelo, António Lopes, Marta Maio, Pedro Mota, Adélia Avelar, António Marques Dias

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Introduction: Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) has contributed to improvement of patient`s quality of life, although it has been associated with some complications including component loosening and polyethylene wear. To prevent these complications various fixation techniques have been employed. Hybrid TKA with cemented tibial and cementless femoral components have shown favourable outcomes, although it still lack of consensus in the literature. Objectives: To evaluate the clinical and radiographic results of hybrid versus cemented TKA with an average 5 years follow-up and analyse the survival rates. Methods: A retrospective study of 125 TKAs performed in 92 patients at our institution, between 2006 to 2008, with a minimum follow-up of 2 years. The same prosthesis was used in all knees. Hybrid TKA fixation was performed in 96 knees, with a mean follow-up of 4,8±1,7 years (range, 2–8,3 years) and 29 TKAs received fully cemented fixation with a mean follow-up of 4,9±1,9 years (range, 2-8,3 years). Selection for hybrid fixation was nonrandomized and based on femoral component fit. The Oxford Knee Score (OKS 0-48) was evaluated for clinical assessment and Knee Society Roentgenographic Evaluation Scoring System was used for radiographic outcome. The survival rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, with failures defined as revision of either the tibial or femoral component for aseptic failures and all-causes (aseptic and infection). Analysis of survivorship data was performed using the log-rank test. SPSS (v22) was the computer program used for statistical analysis. Results: The hybrid group consisted of 72 females (75%) and 24 males (25%), with mean age 64±7 years (range, 50-78 years). The preoperative diagnosis was osteoarthritis (OA) in 94 knees (98%), rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in 1 knee (1%) and Posttraumatic arthritis (PTA) in 1 Knee (1%). The fully cemented group consisted of 23 females (79%) and 6 males (21%), with mean age 65±7 years (range, 47-78 years). The preoperative diagnosis was OA in 27 knees (93%), PTA in 2 knees (7%). The Oxford Knee Scores were similar between the 2 groups (hybrid 40,3±2,8 versus cemented 40,2±3). The percentage of radiolucencies seen on the femoral side was slightly higher in the cemented group 20,7% than the hybrid group 11,5% p0.223. In the cemented group there were significantly more Zone 4 radiolucencies compared to the hybrid group (13,8% versus 2,1% p0,026). Revisions for all causes were performed in 4 of the 96 hybrid TKAs (4,2%) and 1 of the 29 cemented TKAs (3,5%). The reason for revision was aseptic loosening in 3 hybrid TKAs and 1 of the cemented TKAs. Revision was performed for infection in 1 hybrid TKA. The hybrid group demonstrated a 7 years survival rate of 93% for all-cause failures and 94% for aseptic loosening. No significant difference in survivorship was seen between the groups for all-cause failures or aseptic failures. Conclusions: Hybrid TKA yields similar intermediate-term results and survival rates as fully cemented total knee arthroplasty and remains a viable option in knee joint replacement surgery.

Keywords: hybrid, survival rate, total knee arthroplasty, orthopaedic surgery

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Authors: Rachid Marzoug, Noureddine Lakouari, Beatriz Castillo Téllez, Margarita Castillo Téllez, Gerardo Alberto Mejía Pérez

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This paper developed a two-lane cellular automata model to explain the relationship between car accidents at a signalized intersection and traffic-related parameters. It is found that the increase of the lane-changing probability P?ₕ? increases the risk of accidents, besides, the inflow α and the probability of accidents Pₐ? exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Furthermore, depending on the inflow, Pₐ? exhibits three different phases. The transition from phase I to phase II is of first (second) order when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). However, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase II to phase III when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). In addition, when the inflow is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to improve road safety. Finally, simulation results show that the traffic at the intersection is safer adopting symmetric lane-changing rules than asymmetric ones.

Keywords: two-lane intersection, accidents, fatality risk, lane-changing, phase transition

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni

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The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.

Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: Valbona Sota, Efigjeni Kongjika

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Wild almond is a woody species, which is difficult to propagate either generatively by seed or by vegetative methods (grafting or cuttings) and also considered as Endangered (EN) in Albania based on IUCN criteria. As a wild relative of cultivated fruit trees, this species represents a source of genetic variability and can be very important in breeding programs and cultivation. For this reason, it would be of interest to use an effective method of in vitro mid-term conservation, which involves strategies to slow plant growth through physicochemical alterations of in vitro growth conditions. Multiplication of wild almond was carried out using zygotic embryos, as primary explants, with the purpose to develop a successful propagation protocol. Results showed that zygotic embryos can proliferate through direct or indirect organogenesis. During subculture, stage was obtained a great number of new plantlets identical to mother plants derived from the zygotic embryos. All in vitro plantlets obtained from subcultures underwent in vitro conservation by minimal growth in low temperature (4ºC) and darkness. The efficiency of this technique was evaluated for 3, 6, and 10 months of conservation period. Maintenance in these conditions reduced micro cuttings growth. Survival and regeneration rates for each period were evaluated and resulted that the maximal time of conservation without subculture on 4ºC was 10 months, but survival and regeneration rates were significantly reduced, specifically 15.6% and 7.6%. An optimal period of conservation in these conditions can be considered the 5-6 months storage, which can lead to 60-50% of survival and regeneration rates. This protocol may be beneficial for mass propagation, mid-term conservation, and for genetic manipulation of wild almond.

Keywords: micropropagation, minimal growth, storage, wild almond

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Authors: Gurbir Kaur, Surinder Pal Singh

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The present study is a part of the research work on the effect of limestone powder (LP), silica fume (SF) and metakaolin (MK), on the flexural fatigue performance of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). Corrugated rectangular steel fibres of size 0.6x2.0x35 mm at a constant volume fraction of 1.0% have been incorporated in all mix combinations as the reinforcing material. Three mix combinations were prepared by replacing 30% of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by weight with these cement additives in binary and ternary fashion to demonstrate their contribution. An experimental programme was conducted to obtain the fatigue lives of all mix combinations at various stress levels. The fatigue life data have been analysed as an attempt to determine the relationship between stress level ‘S’, number of cycles to failure ‘N’ and probability of failure ‘Pf’ for all mix combinations. The experimental coefficients of the fatigue equation have also been obtained from the fatigue data to represent the S-N-Pf curves analytically.

Keywords: cement additives, fatigue life, probability of failure, steel fibre reinforced concrete

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Authors: Shanza Akram, Sameen Toor, Heba Harb Abu Alkass, Zainab Abdulsalam Altaha, Sara Taha Abdulla, Saleem Imran

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Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common disease and can be fatal. The clinical presentation is variable and nonspecific, making accurate diagnosis difficult. Testing patients with suspected acute PE has increased dramatically. However, the overuse of some tests, particularly CT and D-dimer measurement, may not improve care while potentially leading to patient harm and unnecessary expense. CTPA is the investigation of choice for PE. Its easy availability, accuracy and ability to provide alternative diagnosis has lowered the threshold for performing it, resulting in its overuse. Guidelines have recommended the use of clinical pretest probability tools such as ‘Wells score’ to assess risk of suspected PE. Unfortunately, implementation of guidelines in clinical practice is inconsistent. This has led to low risk patients being subjected to unnecessary imaging, exposure to radiation and possible contrast related complications. Aim: To study the diagnostic yield of CT PA, clinical pretest probability of patients according to wells score and to determine whether or not there was an overuse of CTPA in our service. Methods: CT scans done on patients with suspected P.E in our hospital from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Medical records were reviewed to study demographics, clinical presentation, final diagnosis, and to establish if Wells score and D-Dimer were used correctly in predicting the probability of PE and the need for subsequent CTPA. Results: 100 patients (51male) underwent CT PA in the time period. Mean age was 57 years (24-91 years). Majority of patients presented with shortness of breath (52%). Other presenting symptoms included chest pain 34%, palpitations 6%, collapse 5% and haemoptysis 5%. D Dimer test was done in 69%. Overall Wells score was low (<2) in 28 %, moderate (>2 - < 6) in 47% and high (> 6) in 15% of patients. Wells score was documented in medical notes of only 20% patients. PE was confirmed in 12% (8 male) patients. 4 had bilateral PE’s. In high-risk group (Wells > 6) (n=15), there were 5 diagnosed PEs. In moderate risk group (Wells >2 - < 6) (n=47), there were 6 and in low risk group (Wells <2) (n=28), one case of PE was confirmed. CT scans negative for PE showed pleural effusion in 30, Consolidation in 20, atelactasis in 15 and pulmonary nodule in 4 patients. 31 scans were completely normal. Conclusion: Yield of CT for pulmonary embolism was low in our cohort at 12%. A significant number of our patients who underwent CT PA had low Wells score. This suggests that CT PA is over utilized in our institution. Wells score was poorly documented in medical notes. CT-PA was able to detect alternative pulmonary abnormalities explaining the patient's clinical presentation. CT-PA requires concomitant pretest clinical probability assessment to be an effective diagnostic tool for confirming or excluding PE. . Clinicians should use validated clinical prediction rules to estimate pretest probability in patients in whom acute PE is being considered. Combining Wells scores with clinical and laboratory assessment may reduce the need for CTPA.

Keywords: CT PA, D dimer, pulmonary embolism, wells score

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Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

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The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: psychological well-being, cardiovascular disease, elderly, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 360

Authors: Thabiso Sthembiso Msomi

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SMEs are the main engine of growth in most developing economies. One of the main factors that hinder the development of SME is access to finance. In this study, we explored the factors that hinder the growth and survival of SMEs in South Africa. The capital structure theory formed the theoretical underpinning for the study. The quantitative research design was adopted and data was collected from retail, construction, manufacturing and agriculture sectors of SMEs within the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The modified version of the Cochran formula was used to determine the sample size as 321 SMEs and analysed using the five-point Likert scale. The purposive sampling technique was used to select owners of SME. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the data analysis through Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) to determine the factor structures of items employed to measure each of the constructs in this study. Then, the Cronbach’s alpha test was conducted to determine the reliability of each construct. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) was used to determine the adequacy of the sample size. Linear regression was done to determine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The findings suggest that the main constraints facing South African SMEs were the lack of experienced management. Furthermore, the SMEs would fail to raise customer awareness of their products and services, which in turn affects their market access and monthly turnover. The study recommends that SMEs keep up-to-date records of business transactions to enable the business to keep track of its operations. The study recommends that South African banks adopt an SME accounting and bookkeeping program. The finding of this study benefits policymakers in both the private and public sectors.

Keywords: small businesses, access to finances, COVID-19, SMEs survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Victor Au, Khin Maung Than, Zaw Win Aung, Linawati Jumat

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Background & Objectives: Cardiac arrests can occur anywhere or anytime, and most of the cases will be brought to the emergency department except the cases that happened in at in-patient setting. Raja IsteriPangiran Anak Saleha (RIPAS) Hospital is the only tertiary government hospital which located in Brunei Muara district and received all referral from other Brunei districts. Data of cardiac arrests in Brunei Darussalam scattered between Emergency Medical Ambulance Services (EMAS), Emergency Department (ED), general inpatient wards, and Intensive Care Unit (ICU). In this audit, we only focused on cardiac arrest cases which had happened or presented to the emergency department RIPAS Hospital. Theobjectives of this audit were to look at demographic of cardiac arrest cases and the survival to discharge rate of In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (IHCA) and Out-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA). Methodology: This audit retrospective study was conducted on all cardiac arrest cases that underwent Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) in ED RIPAS Hospital, Brunei Muara, in the year 2019-2020. All cardiac arrest cases that happened or were brought in to emergency department were included. All the relevant data were retrieved from ED visit registry book and electronic medical record “Bru-HIMS” with keyword diagnosis of “cardiac arrest”. Data were analyzed and tabulated using Excel software. Result: 313 cardiac arrests were recorded in the emergency department in year 2019-2020. 92% cases were categorized as OHCA, and the remaining 8% as IHCA. Majority of the cases were male with age between 50-60 years old. In OHCA subgroup, only 12.4% received bystander CPR, and 0.4% received Automatic External Defibrillator (AED) before emergency medical personnel arrived. Initial shockable rhythm in IHCA group accounted for 12% compare to 4.9% in OHCA group. Outcome of ED resuscitation, 32% of IHCA group achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) with a survival to discharge rate was 16%. For OHCA group, 12.35% achieved ROSC, but unfortunately, none of them survive till discharge. Conclusion: Standardized registry for cardiac arrest in the emergency department is required to provide valid baseline data to measure the quality and outcome of cardiac arrest. Zero survival rate for out hospital cardiac arrest is very concerning, and it might represent the significant breach in cardiac arrest chains of survival. Systematic prospective data collection is needed to identify contributing factors and to improve resuscitation outcome.

Keywords: cardiac arrest, OHCA, IHCA, resuscitation, emergency department

Procedia PDF Downloads 99