Search results for: empirical cumulant-generating function

Authors: Meiyuan Zheng, Jingwu He, Yuexi Xiong

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A universal multi-function leaf spring main landing gear was designed for light aircraft. The main landing gear combined with the leaf spring, skidding, and wheels enables it to have a good takeoff and landing performance on various grounds such as the hard, snow, grass and sand grounds. Firstly, the characteristics of different landing sites were studied in this paper in order to analyze the load of the main landing gear on different types of grounds. Based on this analysis, the structural design optimization along with the strength and stiffness characteristics of the main landing gear has been done, which enables it to have good takeoff and landing performance on different types of grounds given the relevant regulations and standards. Additionally, the impact of the skidding on the aircraft during the flight was also taken into consideration. Finally, a universal multi-function leaf spring type of the main landing gear suitable for light aircraft has been developed.

Keywords: landing gear, multi-function, leaf spring, skidding

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Authors: Karima Abdel Aty Hassan Mohamed, Manal Mohamed Ismail, Mona Hassan Gamal Eldein, Ahmed Hassan Hussein, Abdel Aziz Mohamed Elsingerg

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Background: Patellofemoral pain (PFP) is a common musculoskeletal pain condition, especially in females. Decreased hip muscle strength has been implicated as a contributing factor, yet the relationships between pain, hip muscle strength and function are not known. Objective: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of strengthening hip abductors and lateral rotators on pain intensity, function and hip abductor and hip lateral rotator eccentric and concentric torques in patients with PFPS. Methods: Thirty patients had participated in this study; they were assigned into two experimental groups. With age ranged for eighty to thirty five years. Group A consisted of 15 patients (11females and 4 males) with mean age 20.8 (±2.73) years, received closed kinetic chain exercises program, stretching exercises for tight lower extremity soft tissues, and hip strengthening exercises .Group B consisted of 15 patients (12 females and 3 males) with mean age 21.2(±3.27) years, received closed kinetic chain exercises program and stretching exercises for tight lower extremity soft tissues. Treatment was given 2-3times/week, for 6 weeks. Patients were evaluated pre and post treatment for their pain severity, function of knee joint, hip abductors and external rotators concentric/eccentric peak torque. Result: the results revealed that there were significant differences in pain and function between both groups, while there was improvement for all values for both group. Conclusion: Six weeks rehabilitation program focusing on knee strengthening exercises either supplemented by hip strengthening exercises or not effective in improving function, reducing pain and improving hip muscles torque in patients with PFPS. However, adding hip abduction and lateral rotation strengthening exercises seem to reduce pain and improve function more efficiently.

Keywords: patellofemoral pain syndrome, hip muscles, rehabilitation, isokinetic

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Authors: M. Ahmed, Javed Mallick, Mohammad Abul Hasan

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The flexural tensile strength of concrete is an important parameter for determining cracking behavior of concrete structure and to compute deflection under flexure. Many factors have been shown to influence the flexural tensile strength, particularly the level of concrete strength, size of member, age of concrete and confinement to flexure member etc. Empirical equations have been suggested to relate the flexural tensile strength and compressive strength. Limited literature is available for relationship between flexural tensile strength and compressive strength giving consideration to the factors affecting the flexural tensile strength specially the concrete confinement factor. The concrete member such as slabs, beams and columns critical locations are under confinement effects. The paper presents the experimental study to predict the flexural tensile strength and compressive strength empirical relations using statistical procedures considering the effect of confinement and age of concrete for wide range of concrete strength (from 35 to about 100 MPa). It is concluded from study that due consideration of confinement should be given in deriving the flexural tensile strength and compressive strength proportionality equations.

Keywords: compressive strength, flexural tensile strength, modulus of rupture, statistical procedures, concrete confinement

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Authors: Marina Franulovic, Robert Basan, Bozidar Krizan

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Constitutive modelling of material behaviour is becoming increasingly important in prediction of possible failures in highly loaded engineering components, and consequently, optimization of their design. In order to account for large number of phenomena that occur in the material during operation, such as kinematic hardening effect in low cycle fatigue behaviour of steels, complex nonlinear material models are used ever more frequently, despite of the complexity of determination of their parameters. As a method for the determination of these parameters, genetic algorithm is good choice because of its capability to provide very good approximation of the solution in systems with large number of unknown variables. For the application of genetic algorithm to parameter identification, inverse analysis must be primarily defined. It is used as a tool to fine-tune calculated stress-strain values with experimental ones. In order to choose proper objective function for inverse analysis among already existent and newly developed functions, the research is performed to investigate its influence on material behaviour modelling.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, kinematic hardening, material model, objective function

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Authors: Saif Ul Haq

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The current study intends to examine the safety and quality considerations of clients of housing projects and their impact on the adoption of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) by the construction firm. Mixed method research technique has been used to collect and analyze the data wherein a survey was conducted to collect the data from 220 clients of housing projects in Saudi Arabia. Then, the telephonic and Skype interviews were conducted to collect data of 15 professionals working in the top ten real estate companies of Saudi Arabia. Data were analyzed by using partial least square (PLS) and thematic analysis techniques. Findings reveal that today’s customer prioritizes the safety and quality requirements of their houses and as a result, construction firms adopt QFD to address the needs of customers. The findings are of great importance for the clients of housing projects as well as for the construction firms as they could apply QFD in housing projects to address the safety and quality concerns of their clients.

Keywords: construction industry, quality considerations, quality function deployment, safety considerations

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Authors: Apichote Urantinon

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Suspended solid is one factor for water quality in open channel. It affects various problems in waterways that could cause high sedimentation in the channels, leading to shallowness in the river. It is composed of the organic and inorganic materials which can settle down anywhere along the open channel. Thus, depends on the solid amount and its composition, it occupies the water body capacity and causes the water quality problems simultaneously. However, the existing of suspended solid in the water column depends on the flow discharge (Q) and secchi depth (sec). This study aims to examine the effect of flow discharge (Q) and secchi depth (sec) on the suspended solids concentration in open channel and attempts to establish the formula that represents the relationship between flow discharges (Q), secchi depth (sec) and suspended solid concentration. The field samplings have been conducted in the Nakhon-Nayok river, during the wet season, September 15-16, 2014 and dry season, March 10-11, 2015. The samplings with five different locations are measured. The discharge has been measured onsite by floating technics, the secchi depth has been measured by secchi disc and the water samples have been collected at the center of the water column. They have been analyzed in the laboratory for the suspended solids concentration. The results demonstrate that the decrease in suspended solids concentration is dependent on flow discharge, since the natural processes in erosion consists of routing of eroded material. Finally, an empirical equation to compute the suspended solids concentration that shows an equation (SScon = 9.852 (sec)-0.759 Q0.0355) is developed. The calculated suspended solids concentration, with uses of empirical formula, show good agreement with the record data as the R2 = 0.831. Therefore, the empirical formula in this study is clearly verified.

Keywords: suspended solids concentration, the Nakhon-Nayok river, secchi depth, floating technics

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Authors: Shu-Jun Li, Cheng-Cao Sun, De-Jia Li

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Recently, long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been emerged as crucial regulators of human diseases and prognostic markers in numerous of cancers, including colorectal carcinoma (CRC). Here, we identified an oncogenetic lncRNA HULC, which may promote colorectal tumorigenesis. HULC has been found to be up-regulated and acts as oncogene in gastric cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma, but its expression pattern, biological function and underlying mechanism in CRC is still undetermined. Here, we reported that HULC expression is also over-expressed in CRC, and its increased level is associated with poor prognosis and shorter survival. Knockdown of HULC impaired CRC cells proliferation, migration and invasion, facilitated cell apoptosis in vitro, and inhibited tumorigenicity of CRC cells in vivo. Mechanistically, RNA immunoprecipitation (RIP) and RNA pull-down experiment demonstrated that HULC could simultaneously interact with EZH2 to repress underlying targets NKD2 transcription. In addition, rescue experiments determined that HULC oncogenic function is partly dependent on repressing NKD2. Taken together, our findings expound how HULC over-expression endows an oncogenic function in CRC.

Keywords: long noncoding RNA, HULC, NKD2, colorectal carcinoma, proliferation, apoptosis

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we propose a novel inference algorithm for the multi-class Gaussian process classification model that can be used in the field of human behavior recognition. This algorithm can drive simultaneously both a posterior distribution of a latent function and estimators of hyper-parameters in a Gaussian process classification model with multi-class. Our algorithm is based on the Laplace approximation (LA) technique and variational EM framework. This is performed in two steps: called expectation and maximization steps. First, in the expectation step, using the Bayesian formula and LA technique, we derive approximately the posterior distribution of the latent function indicating the possibility that each observation belongs to a certain class in the Gaussian process classification model. Second, in the maximization step, using a derived posterior distribution of latent function, we compute the maximum likelihood estimator for hyper-parameters of a covariance matrix necessary to define prior distribution for latent function. These two steps iteratively repeat until a convergence condition satisfies. Moreover, we apply the proposed algorithm with human action classification problem using a public database, namely, the KTH human action data set. Experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm shows good performance on this data set.

Keywords: bayesian rule, gaussian process classification model with multiclass, gaussian process prior, human action classification, laplace approximation, variational EM algorithm

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Authors: Xiaobao Han, Huacong Li, Jia Li

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For dynamic decoupling of linear parameter varying system, a robust dominance pre-compensator design method is given. The parameterized pre-compensator design problem is converted into optimal problem constrained with parameterized linear matrix inequalities (PLMI); To solve this problem, firstly, this optimization problem is equivalently transformed into a new form with elimination of coupling relationship between parameterized Lyapunov function (PLF) and pre-compensator. Then the problem was reduced to a normal convex optimization problem with normal linear matrix inequalities (LMI) constraints on a newly constructed convex polyhedron. Moreover, a parameter scheduling pre-compensator was achieved, which satisfies robust performance and decoupling performances. Finally, the feasibility and validity of the robust diagonal dominance pre-compensator design method are verified by the numerical simulation of a turbofan engine PLPV model.

Keywords: linear parameter varying (LPV), parameterized Lyapunov function (PLF), linear matrix inequalities (LMI), diagonal dominance pre-compensator

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Authors: Felice Elefant, Akanksha Bhatnaghar, Keegan Krick, Elizabeth Heller

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Context: The severity of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) progression involves an interplay of genetics, age, and environmental factors orchestrated by histone acetyltransferase (HAT) mediated neuroepigenetic mechanisms. While disruption of Tip60 HAT action in neural gene control is implicated in AD, alternative mechanisms underlying Tip60 function remain unexplored. Altered RNA splicing has recently been highlighted as a widespread hallmark in the AD transcriptome that is implicated in the disease. Research Aim: The aim of this study was to identify a novel RNA binding/splicing function for Tip60 in human hippocampus and impaired in brains from AD fly models and AD patients. Methodology/Analysis: The authors used RNA immunoprecipitation using RNA isolated from 200 pooled wild type Drosophila brains for each of the 3 biological replicates. To identify Tip60’s RNA targets, they performed genome sequencing (DNB-SequencingTM technology, BGI genomics) on 3 replicates for Input RNA and RNA IPs by Tip60. Findings: The authors' transcriptomic analysis of RNA bound to Tip60 by Tip60-RNA immunoprecipitation (RIP) revealed Tip60 RNA targets enriched for critical neuronal processes implicated in AD. Remarkably, 79% of Tip60’s RNA targets overlap with its chromatin gene targets, supporting a model by which Tip60 orchestrates bi-level transcriptional regulation at both the chromatin and RNA level, a function unprecedented for any HAT to date. Since RNA splicing occurs co-transcriptionally and splicing defects are implicated in AD, the authors investigated whether Tip60-RNA targeting modulates splicing decisions and if this function is altered in AD. Replicate multivariate analysis of transcript splicing (rMATS) analysis of RNA-Seq data sets from wild-type and AD fly brains revealed a multitude of mammalian-like AS defects. Strikingly, over half of these altered RNAs were bonafide Tip60-RNA targets enriched for in the AD-gene curated database, with some AS alterations prevented against by increasing Tip60 in fly brain. Importantly, human orthologs of several Tip60-modulated spliced genes in Drosophila are well characterized aberrantly spliced genes in human AD brains, implicating disruption of Tip60’s splicing function in AD pathogenesis. Theoretical Importance: The authors' findings support a novel RNA interaction and splicing regulatory function for Tip60 that may underlie AS impairments that hallmark AD etiology. Data Collection: The authors collected data from RNA immunoprecipitation experiments using RNA isolated from 200 pooled wild type Drosophila brains for each of the 3 biological replicates. They also performed genome sequencing (DNBSequencingTM technology, BGI genomics) on 3 replicates for Input RNA and RNA IPs by Tip60. Questions: The question addressed by this study was whether Tip60 has a novel RNA binding/splicing function in human hippocampus and whether this function is impaired in brains from AD fly models and AD patients. Conclusions: The authors' findings support a novel RNA interaction and splicing regulatory function for Tip60 that may underlie AS impairments that hallmark AD etiology.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cognition, aging, neuroepigenetics

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Authors: Salman Iqbal

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Knowledge management (KM) literature has mainly focused on the antecedents of KM. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of specific human resource management (HRM) practices on employee knowledge sharing and its outcome as individual knowledge capability. Based on previous literature, a model is proposed for the study and hypotheses are formulated. The cross-sectional dataset comes from a sample of 19 knowledge intensive firms (KIFs). This study has run an item parceling technique followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) on the latent constructs of the research model. Employees’ collaboration and their interpersonal trust can help to improve their knowledge sharing behaviour and knowledge capability within organisations. This study suggests that in future, by using a larger sample, better statistical insight is possible. The findings of this study are beneficial for scholars, policy makers and practitioners. The empirical results of this study are entirely based on employees’ perceptions and make a significant research contribution, given there is a dearth of empirical research focusing on the subcontinent.

Keywords: employees’ collaboration, individual knowledge capability, knowledge sharing, monetary rewards, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Hany Elsaid Fawaz Abdallah

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This study presents a new artificial neural network(ANN) model to predict the Nusselt Number and pressure drop for the turbulent flow in a triangular corrugated plate heat exchanger for forced air and turbulent water flow. An experimental investigation was performed to create a new dataset for the Nusselt Number and pressure drop values in the following range of dimensionless parameters: The plate corrugation angles (from 0° to 60°), the Reynolds number (from 10000 to 40000), pitch to height ratio (from 1 to 4), and Prandtl number (from 0.7 to 200). Based on the ANN performance graph, the three-layer structure with {12-8-6} hidden neurons has been chosen. The training procedure includes back-propagation with the biases and weight adjustment, the evaluation of the loss function for the training and validation dataset and feed-forward propagation of the input parameters. The linear function was used at the output layer as the activation function, while for the hidden layers, the rectified linear unit activation function was utilized. In order to accelerate the ANN training, the loss function minimization may be achieved by the adaptive moment estimation algorithm (ADAM). The ‘‘MinMax’’ normalization approach was utilized to avoid the increase in the training time due to drastic differences in the loss function gradients with respect to the values of weights. Since the test dataset is not being used for the ANN training, a cross-validation technique is applied to the ANN network using the new data. Such procedure was repeated until loss function convergence was achieved or for 4000 epochs with a batch size of 200 points. The program code was written in Python 3.0 using open-source ANN libraries such as Scikit learn, TensorFlow and Keras libraries. The mean average percent error values of 9.4% for the Nusselt number and 8.2% for pressure drop for the ANN model have been achieved. Therefore, higher accuracy compared to the generalized correlations was achieved. The performance validation of the obtained model was based on a comparison of predicted data with the experimental results yielding excellent accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, corrugated channel, heat transfer enhancement, Nusselt number, pressure drop, generalized correlations

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Authors: Matthias Nnadi

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Using samples of 250 large listed firms by market capitalization in China and Hong Kong, we conducted empirical test to determine the impact of regulatory environment on reporting quality following IFRS convergence using three financial reporting measures; earning management, timely loss recognition and value relevance. Our results indicate that accounting data are more value relevant for Hong Kong listed firms than the Chinese A-share firms. The empirical results for timely loss recognition further reveal that there is a larger coefficient estimate on bad news earnings, which suggests that Chines A-share firms are more likely to report losses in a timely manner. The results support the evidence that substantial convergence of IFRS can improve financial reporting quality in a regulated environment such as China. This further supports the expectation that IFRS are relevant to China and has positive effect on its accounting practice and quality.

Keywords: reporting, quality, earning, loss, relevance, financial, China, Hong Kong

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Authors: Rozelle Labuschagne, Ronel Roos

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Individuals often experience a reduction in physical function, quality of life and basic activities of daily living after surgery. This is exponentially true for high-risk patients, especially the elderly and frail individuals. Not much is known about the physical function, physical activity preferences and factors associated with the six-minute walk test of elderly individuals who would undergo elective abdominal surgery in South Africa. Such information is important to design effective prehabilitation physiotherapy programs prior to elective surgery. The purpose of the study was to describe the demographic profile and physical function of elderly patients who would undergo elective surgery and to determine factors associated with their six-minute walk test distance findings. A cross-sectional descriptive study in elderly patients older than 60 years of age who would undergo elective abdominal surgery were consecutively sampled at a private hospital in Pretoria, South Africa. Participants’ demographics were collected and physical function assessed with the Functional Comorbidity Index (FCI), DeMorton Mobility Index (DEMMI), Lawton-Brody Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL) and six-minute walk test (6MWT). Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis with IBM SPSS 25. A p-value ≤ 0.05 were deemed statistically significant. The pilot study consisted of 12 participants (female (n=11, 91.7%), male (n=1, 8.3%) with a mean age of 65.8 (±4.5) years, body mass index of 28 (±4.2) kg.m2 with one (8.3%) participant being a current smoker and four (33.3%) participants having a smoking history. Nine (75%) participants lived independently at home and three (25%) had caregivers. Participants reported walking (n=6, 50%), stretching exercises (n=1, 8.3%), household chores & gardening (n=2, 16.7%), biking/swimming/running (n=1, 8.3%) as physical activity preferences. Physical function findings of the sample were: mean FCI score 3 (±1.1), DEMMI score 81.1 (±14.9), IADL 95 (±17.3), 6MWT 435.50 (IQR 364.75-458.50) with percentage 6MWT distance achieved 81.8% (IQR 64.4%-87.5%). A strong negative correlation was observed between 6MWT distance walked and FCI (r = -0.729, p=0.007). The majority of study participants reported incorporating some form of physical activity into their daily life as form of exercise. Most participants did not achieve their predicted 6MWT distance indicating less than optimal levels of physical function capacity. The number of comorbidities as determined by the FCI was associated with the distance that participants could walk with the 6MWT. The results of this pilot study could be used to indicate which elderly individuals would benefit most from a pre-surgical rehabilitation program. The main goal of such a program would be to improve physical function capacity as measured by the 6MWT. Surgeons could refer patients based on age and number of comorbidities, as determined by the FCI, to potentially improve surgical outcomes.

Keywords: abdominal surgery, elderly, physical function, six-minute walk test

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Authors: John Adebayo Oloyhede

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This paper examines effect of financial liberalization on the stability of the demand for money function and its implication for exchange rate behaviour of three African countries. As the demand for money function is regarded as one of the two main building blocks of most exchange rate determination models, the other being purchasing power parity, its stability is required for the monetary models of exchange rate determination to hold. To what extent has the liberalisation policy of these countries, for instance liberalised interest rate, affected the demand for money function and what has been the consequence on the validity and relevance of floating exchange rate models? The study adopts the Autoregressive Instrumental Package (AIV) of multiple regression technique and followed the Almon Polynomial procedure with zero-end constraint. Data for the period 1986 to 2011 were drawn from three developing countries of Africa, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which did not only start the liberalization and floating system almost at the same period but share similar and diverse economic and financial structures. Its findings show that the demand for money was a stable function of income and interest rate at home and abroad. Other factors such as exchange rate and foreign interest rate exerted some significant effect on domestic money demand. The short-run and long-run elasticity with respect to income, interest rates, expected inflation rate and exchange rate expectation are not greater than zero. This evidence conforms to some extent to the expected behaviour of the domestic money function and underscores its ability to serve as good building block or assumption of the monetary model of exchange rate determination. This will, therefore, assist appropriate monetary authorities in the design and implementation of further financial liberalization policy packages in developing countries.

Keywords: financial liberalisation, exchange rates, demand for money, developing economies

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Authors: Bouchou Aïssa, Mohamed Akbi

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Contact materials used for electrical breakers are often made with silver alloys. Mechanical and thermo dynamical properties as well as electron emission of such complicated alloys present a lack of reliable and accurate experimental data. This paper deals mainly with electron work function (EWF) measurements about silver-metal oxide (Ag-MeO) electrical contacts (Ag-ZnO (92/8), before and after surface heat treatments at 296 K  813 K, under UHV conditions (residual gas pressure of 1.4 x 10-7 mbar). The electron work function (EWF) of silver zinc oxide materials was measured photoelectrically, using both Fowler’s method of isothermal curves and linearized Fowler plots. In this paper, we present the development of a method for measuring photoelectric work function of contact materials. Also reported in this manuscript are the results of experimental work whose purpose has been the buildup of a reliable photoelectric system and associated monochromatic ultra-violet radiations source, and the photoelectric measurement of the electron work functions (EWF) of contact materials. In order to study the influence of annealing temperature on the EWF, a vacuum furnace was used for heating the metallic samples up to 800 K. The EWF of the silver – zinc oxide materials were investigated to study the influence of annealing temperature on the EWF. In the present study, the photoelectric measurements about Ag-ZnO(92/8) contacts have shown a linear decrease of the EWF with increasing temperature, i.e. the temperature coefficient is constant and negative: for the first annealing # 1, in the temperature range [299 K  823 K]. On the contrary, a linear increase was observed with increasing temperature (i.e. , being constant and positive), for the next annealing # 2, in the temperature range [296 K  813 K]. The EWFs obtained for silver-zinc oxide Ag-ZnO(92/8) show an obvious dependence on the annealing temperature which is strongly associated with the evolution of the arrangement on ZnO nano particles on the Ag-ZnO contact surface as well as surface charge distribution.

Keywords: Photoemission, Electron work function, Fowler methods, Ag-ZnO contact materials, Vacuum heat treatment

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Authors: Azizi Cherifa, O. Benzaoui

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The thermal aspects in the design of power circuits often deserve as much attention as pure electric components aspects as the operating temperature has a direct influence on their static and dynamic characteristics. MOSFET is fundamental in the circuits, it is the most widely used device in the current production of semiconductor components using their honorable performance. The aim of this contribution is devoted to the effect of the temperature on the properties of MOSFETs. The study enables us to calculate the drain current as function of bias in both linear and saturated modes. The effect of temperature is evaluated using a numerical simulation, using the laws of mobility and saturation velocity of carriers as a function of temperature.

Keywords: temperature, MOSFET, mobility, transistor

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal

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This paper explores the impact of the extent of a company's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on credit rating and capital structure. The analysis is based on a sample of 202 firms from the 350 FTSE firms over the period of 2008-2013. ESG disclosure score is measured using Proprietary Bloomberg score based on the extent of a company's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) disclosure. The credit rating is measured by The QuiScore, which is a measure of the likelihood that a company will become bankrupt in the twelve months following the date of calculation. The Capital Structure is measured by long term debt ratio. Two hypotheses are test using panel data regression. The results suggested that the higher degree of ESG disclosure leads to better credit rating. There is significant negative relationship between ESG disclosure and the long term debit percentage. The paper includes implications for the transparency which is resulting of the ESG disclosure could support the Monitoring Function. The monitoring role of disclosure is the increasing in the transparency of the credit rating agencies, also it could affect on managers’ actions. This study provides empirical evidence on the material of ESG disclosure on credit ratings changes and the firms’ capital decision making.

Keywords: capital structure, credit rating agencies, ESG disclosure, panel data regression

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Authors: Harsha Gopalakrishnan, Srijanani Anurag Prasad

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Quadrilateral labyrinth fractals are a new type of fractals that are introduced in this paper. They belong to a unique class of fractals on any plane quadrilateral. The previously researched labyrinth fractals on the unit square and triangle inspire this form of fractal. This work describes how to construct a quadrilateral labyrinth fractal and looks at the circumstances in which it can be understood as the attractor of an iterated function system. Furthermore, some of its topological properties and the Hausdorff and box-counting dimensions of the quadrilateral labyrinth fractals are studied.

Keywords: fractals, labyrinth fractals, dendrites, iterated function system, Haus-Dorff dimension, box-counting dimension, non-self similar, non-self affine, connected, path connected

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: Weisi Guo

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It is well established that there may be running correlations in sequential exam marks due to students sitting in the order of course registration patterns. As such, a random and non-sequential sampling of exam marks is a standard recommended practice. Here, the paper examines a large number of exam data stretching several years across different modules to see the degree to which it is true. Using the real mark distribution as a generative process, it was found that random simulated data had no more sequential randomness than the real data. That is to say, the running correlations that one often observes are statistically identical to chance. Digging deeper, it was found that some high running correlations have students that indeed share a common course history and make similar mistakes. However, at the statistical scale of a module question, the combined effect is statistically similar to the random shuffling of papers. As such, there may not be the need to take random samples for marks, but it still remains good practice to mark papers in a random sequence to reduce the repetitive marking bias and errors.

Keywords: data analysis, empirical study, exams, marking

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Authors: Obiora E. Anisiji, Jeremiah L. Chukwuneke, Chinonso H. Achebe, Paul C. Okolie

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This work developed a mathematical model of a biogas plant from a mechanistic point of view, for urban area clean energy requirement. It aimed at integrating thermodynamics; which deals with the direction in which a process occurs and Biochemical kinetics; which gives the understanding of the rates of biochemical reaction. The mathematical formulation of the proposed gas plant follows the fundamental principles of thermodynamics, and further analysis were accomplished to develop an algorithm for evaluating the plant performance preferably in terms of daily production capacity. In addition, the capacity of the plant is equally estimated for a given cycle of operation and presented in time histories. A nominal 1500m3 biogas plant was studied characteristically and its performance efficiency evaluated. It was observed that the rate of biogas production is essentially a function of enthalpy ratio, the reactor temperature, pH, substrate concentration, rate of degradation of the biomass, and the accumulation of matter in the system due to bacteria growth. The results of this study conform to a very large extent with reported empirical data of some existing plant and further model validations were conducted in line with classical records found in literature.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas plant, biogas production, bio-reactor, energy, fermentation, rate of production, temperature, therm

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Empirical evidence has, over time, confirmed that the behavior of individuals is inconsistent with the descriptions provided by the Discounted Utility Model, an essential reference for calculating the utility of intertemporal prospects. The model assumes that individuals calculate the utility of intertemporal prospectuses by adding up the values of all outcomes obtained by multiplying the cardinal utility of the outcome by the discount function estimated at the time the outcome is received. The trend of the discount function is crucial for the preferences of the decision maker because it represents the perception of the future, and its trend causes temporally consistent or temporally inconsistent preferences. In particular, because different formulations of the discount function lead to various conclusions in predicting choice, the descriptive ability of models with a hyperbolic trend is greater than linear or exponential models. Suboptimal choices from any time point of view are the consequence of this mechanism, the psychological factors of which are encapsulated in the discount rate trend. In addition, analyzing the decision-making process from a psychological perspective, there is an equivalence between the selection of dominated prospects and a degree of impatience that decreases over time. The first part of the paper describes and investigates the anomalies of the discounted utility model by relating the cognitive distortions of the decision-maker to the emotional factors that are generated during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. Specifically, by studying the degree to which impatience decreases, it’s possible to quantify how the psychological and emotional mechanisms of the decision-maker result in a lack of decision persistence. In addition, this description presents inconsistency as the consequence of an inconsistent attitude towards time-delayed choices. The second part of the paper presents an experimental phase in which we show the relationship between inconsistency and impatience in different contexts. Analysis of the degree to which impatience decreases confirms the influence of the decision maker's emotional impulses for each anomaly in the utility model discussed in the first part of the paper. This work provides an application in the field of personalized behavioral finance. Indeed, the numerous behavioral diversities, evident even in the degrees of decrease in impatience in the experimental phase, support the idea that optimal strategies may not satisfy individuals in the same way. With the aim of homogenizing the categories of investors and to provide a personalized approach to advice, the results proven in the experimental phase are used in a complementary way with the information in the field of behavioral finance to implement the Analytical Hierarchy Process model in intertemporal choices, useful for strategic personalization. In the construction of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the degree of decrease in impatience is understood as reflecting irrationality in decision-making and is therefore used for the construction of weights between anomalies and behavioral traits.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, behavioral finance, financial anomalies, impatience, time inconsistency

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Authors: Elmeida Effendy, Mustafa M. Amin, Nauli Aulia Lubis, P. J. Sirait

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Music therapy may have an effect on mental illnesses. This is a comparative, quasi-experimental study to examine the effect of music therapy added to standard care on Positive Negative Syndrome Scale, Cognitive Function and Quality of Life in female schizophrenic patients. 50 schizophrenic participants who were diagnosed with semistructured MINI ICD-X, were assigned into two groups received pharmacotherapy. Participants were assigned into each group of therapy by using matched allocation method. Music therapy added on to the first group. They received music therapy, using Mozart Sonata four times a week, over a period of six week. Positive and negative symptoms were measured by using Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Cognitive function were measured by using Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA). All rating scale were administrated by certified skill residents every week after music therapy session. The participants who were received pharmaco-and-music therapy significantly showed greater response than who received pharmacotherapy only. The mean difference of response were -6,6164 (p=0,001) for PANNS, 2,911 (p=0,004) for MMSE, 3,618 (p=0,001) for MOCA, 4,599 (p=0,001) for SF-36. Music therapy have beneficial effects on PANSS, Cognitive Function and Quality of Life in schizophrenic patients.

Keywords: music therapy, rating scale, schizophrenia, symptoms

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Authors: Abrar R. Al-Hasan

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Despite the widespread use of social media by consumers and marketers, empirical research investigating their economic value in the healthcare industry still lags. This study explores the impact of the use of social media marketing efforts on a hospital's brand equity and, ultimately, consumer response. Using social media data from Twitter and Facebook, along with an online and offline survey methodology, data is analyzed using logistic regression models. A random sample of (728) residents of the Kuwaiti population is used. The results of this study found that social media marketing efforts (SMME) in terms of use and validation lead to higher hospital brand equity and in turn, patient loyalty and patient visit. The study highlights the impact of SMME on hospital brand equity and patient response. Healthcare organizations should guide their marketing efforts to better manage this new way of marketing and communicating with patients to enhance their consumer loyalty and financial performance.

Keywords: brand equity, healthcare marketing, patient visit, social media, SMME

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Ping Xu, Gregory T. Golm, Guanghan (Frank) Liu

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In the presence of competing events, traditional survival analysis may not be appropriate and can result in biased estimates, as it assumes independence between competing events and the event of interest. Instead, competing risk analysis should be considered to correctly estimate the survival probability of the event of interest and the hazard ratio between treatment groups. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a potential source of competing risks in clinical trials, as participants in trials may experienceCOVID-related competing events before the occurrence of the event of interest, for instance, death due to COVID-19, which can affect the incidence rate of the event of interest. We have performed simulation studies to compare multiple competing risk analysis models, including the cumulative incidence function, the sub-distribution hazard function, and the cause-specific hazard function, to the traditional survival analysis model under various scenarios. We also provide a general recommendation on conducting competing risk analysis in randomized clinical trials during the era of the COVID-19 pandemic based on the extensive simulation results.

Keywords: competing risk, survival analysis, simulations, randomized clinical trial, COVID-19 pandemic

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Authors: Mengjie Zhou

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Under the rapid promotion of digital logistics, the old consumption space in cities is undergoing profound transformation and reconstruction. This article systematically analyzes the impact of digital logistics on existing consumer spaces in cities and how these spaces can adapt to and lead this change through distinct ‘spatial production’ models. The digital transformation of the logistics industry has significantly improved logistics efficiency and service quality while also putting forward new requirements for the form and function of consumer space. In this process, the old consumption space in cities not only faces the trend of material consumption transforming into spiritual consumption but also needs to face profound changes in consumer behavior patterns. Taking Fengying Xili in Changsha as an empirical case, this article explores in detail how it successfully transformed from a traditional consumption space to a modern cultural consumption space by introducing new business formats, optimizing spatial layout, and improving service quality while preserving its historical heritage. This case not only provides valuable practical experience for the transformation of old urban consumption spaces but also demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the new model of ‘spatial production’.

Keywords: digital logistics, urban consumption space, space production, urban renewal

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Continuous monitoring of industrial plants is one of necessary tasks when it comes to ensuring high-quality final products. In terms of monitoring and diagnosis, it is quite critical and important to detect some incipient abnormal events of manufacturing processes in order to improve safety and reliability of operations involved and to reduce related losses. In this work a new multivariate statistical online diagnostic method is presented using a case study. For building some reference models an empirical discriminant model is constructed based on various past operation runs. When a fault is detected on-line, an on-line diagnostic module is initiated. Finally, the status of the current operating conditions is compared with the reference model to make a diagnostic decision. The performance of the presented framework is evaluated using a dataset from complex industrial processes. It has been shown that the proposed diagnostic method outperforms other techniques especially in terms of incipient detection of any faults occurred.

Keywords: data mining, empirical model, on-line diagnostics, process fault, process monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 156