Search results for: stock price crash

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

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Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.

Keywords: apartment complex, big data, life-cycle building value analysis, machine learning

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Authors: Mussa Hussaini, Supasith Chonglerttham

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Stocks are usually classified according to their characteristics which are unique enough such that the performance of each category can be differentiated from another. The reasons behind such classifications in the financial market are sometimes financial innovation or it can also be because of finding a premium in a group of stocks with similar features. One of the major classifications in stocks market is called momentum strategy. Based on this strategy stocks are classified according to their past performances into past winners and past losers. Momentum in a stock market refers to the idea that stocks will keep moving in the same direction. In other word, stocks with rising prices (past winners stocks) will continue to rise and those stocks with falling prices (past losers stocks) will continue to fall. The performance of this classification has been well documented in numerous studies in different countries. These studies suggest that past winners tend to outperform past losers in the future. However, academic research in this direction has been limited in countries such as Thailand and to the best of our knowledge, there has been no such study in Thailand after the financial crisis of 1997. The significance of this study stems from the fact that Thailand is an open market and has been encouraging foreign investments as one of the means to enhance employment, promote economic development, and technology transfer and the main equity market in Thailand, the Stock Exchange of Thailand is a crucial channel for Foreign Investment inflow into the country. The equity market size in Thailand increased from $1.72 billion in 1984 to $133.66 billion in 1993, an increase of over 77 times within a decade. The main contribution of this paper is evidence for size category in the context of the equity market in Thailand. Almost all previous studies have focused solely on large stocks or indices. This paper extends the scope beyond large stocks and indices by including small and tiny stocks as well. Further, since there is a distinct absence of detailed academic research on momentum strategy in the Stock Exchange of Thailand after the crisis, this paper also contributes to the extension of existing literature of the study. This research is also of significance for those researchers who would like to compare the performance of this strategy in different countries and markets. In the Stock Exchange of Thailand, we examined the performance of momentum strategy from 2010 to 2014. Returns on portfolios are calculated on monthly basis. Our results on momentum strategy confirm that there is positive momentum profit in large size stocks whereas there is negative momentum profit in small size stocks during the period of 2010 to 2014. Furthermore, the equal weighted average of momentum profit of both small and large size category do not provide any indication of overall momentum profit.

Keywords: momentum strategy, past loser, past winner, stock exchange of Thailand

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Authors: Adel M. Qatawneh

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This paper aimed to determine the importance of knowledge innovation for external audit on anti-corruption in the entire Jordanian bank companies are listed in Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). The study importance arises from the need to recognize the Knowledge innovation for external audit and anti-corruption as the development in the world of business, the variables that will be affected by external audit innovation are: reliability of financial data, relevantly of financial data, consistency of the financial data, Full disclosure of financial data and protecting the rights of investors to achieve the objectives of the study a questionnaire was designed and distributed to the society of the Jordanian bank are listed in Amman Stock Exchange. The data analysis found out that the banks in Jordan have a positive importance of Knowledge innovation for external audit on anti-corruption. They agree on the benefit of Knowledge innovation for external audit on anti-corruption. The statistical analysis showed that Knowledge innovation for external audit had a positive impact on the anti-corruption and that external audit has a significantly statistical relationship with anti-corruption, reliability of financial data, consistency of the financial data, a full disclosure of financial data and protecting the rights of investors.

Keywords: knowledge innovation, external audit, anti-corruption, Amman Stock Exchange

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Authors: Eunsup Daniel Shim, Jooh Lee

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The US financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent Global Financial Crisis were considered by many economists the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As a results, Dodd-Frank Act has passed and aims '(1) to promote the financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system, to end "too big to fail", (2) to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, (3) to protect consumers from abusive financial services practices, and for other purposes.' The enactment of Dodd-Frank Act, in part, intended to significantly influence accountability on executive compensation especially for the financial institutions. This paper empirically investigates the changes in Financial CEOs’ compensation since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Our findings show that in the post- Financial Crisis period financial leverage is significant factor influencing the CEOs’ total compensation. In addition market based performance such as stock price and market-to-book ratio shows significant positive relationship with CEO compensation. This change can be interpreted an attempt to reduce opportunistic behavior of top executives after the financial crisis and the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act.

Keywords: financial CEO compensation, firm performance, financial crisis of 2008, dodd-frank act

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Samir K. Safi

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The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of two types of models, namely MIDAS and MIDAS-GARCH, in predicting the volatility of crude oil returns based on gold price returns and the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to identify which model would provide more accurate short-term and long-term predictions and which model would perform better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The findings of the study revealed that the MIDAS model performed better in predicting short-term and long-term volatility before the pandemic, while the MIDAS-GARCH model performed significantly better in handling the increased volatility caused by the pandemic. The study highlights the importance of selecting appropriate models to handle the complexities of real-world data and shows that the choice of model can significantly impact the accuracy of predictions. The practical implications of model selection and exploring potential methodological adjustments for future research will be highlighted and discussed.

Keywords: GARCH-MIDAS, MIDAS, crude oil, gold, COVID-19, volatility

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Authors: Donghun Jeong, Somyoung Shin, Yeoil Yun

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A large-scale traffic accident refers to an accident in which more than three people die or more than thirty people are dead or injured. In order to prevent a large-scale traffic accident from causing a big loss of lives or establish effective improvement measures, it is important to analyze accident situations in-depth and understand the effects of major accident variables on an accident. This study aims to analyze the contribution of individual accident variables to accident results, based on the accurate reconstruction of traffic accidents using PC-Crash’s Multi-Body, which is an accident reconstruction program, and simulation of each scenario. Multi-Body system of PC-Crash accident reconstruction program is used for multi-body accident reconstruction that shows motions in diverse directions that were not approached previously. MB System is to design and reproduce a form of body, which shows realistic motions, using several bodies. Targeting the 'freight truck cargo drop accident around the Changwon Tunnel' that happened in November 2017, this study conducted a simulation of the freight truck cargo drop accident and analyzed the contribution of individual accident majors. Then on the basis of the driving speed, cargo load, and stacking method, six scenarios were devised. The simulation analysis result displayed that the freight car was driven at a speed of 118km/h(speed limit: 70km/h) right before the accident, carried 196 oil containers with a weight of 7,880kg (maximum load: 4,600kg) and was not fully equipped with anchoring equipment that could prevent a drop of cargo. The vehicle speed, cargo load, and cargo anchoring equipment were major accident variables, and the accident contribution analysis results of individual variables are as follows. When the freight car only obeyed the speed limit, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 15%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 39%. When the freight car only obeyed the cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers decreased by 5%, and the number of dropped oil containers decreased by 34%. When the freight car obeyed both the speed limit and cargo load, the scattering distance of oil containers fell by 38%, and the number of dropped oil containers fell by 64%. The analysis result of each scenario revealed that the overspeed and excessive cargo load of the freight car contributed to the dispersion of accident damage; in the case of a truck, which did not allow a fall of cargo, there was a different type of accident when driven too fast and carrying excessive cargo load, and when the freight car obeyed the speed limit and cargo load, there was the lowest possibility of causing an accident.

Keywords: accident reconstruction, large-scale traffic accident, PC-Crash, MB system

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Authors: H. Ahmed, A. Persson, L. Sundqvist, B. Biorkman

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Numerous amounts of metallurgical dusts and sludge containing iron as well as some other valuable elements such as Zn, Pb and C are annually produced in the steelmaking industry. These alternative iron ore resources (fines) with unsatisfying physical and metallurgical properties are difficult to recycle. However, agglomerating these fines to be further used as a feed stock for existing iron and steel making processes is practiced successfully at several plants but for limited extent. In the present study, briquettes of integrated steelmaking industry waste materials (namely, BF-dust and sludge, BOF-dust and sludge) were used as feed stock to produce direct reduced iron (DRI). Physical and metallurgical properties of produced briquettes were investigated by means of TGA/DTA/QMS in combination with XRD. Swelling, softening and melting behavior were also studied using heating microscope.

Keywords: iron and steel wastes, recycling, self-reducing briquettes, thermogravimetry

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Authors: Lina Najafian, Hamidreza Vakilifard

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The present study focused on the relationship between the quality of accruals and non-systematic risk. The independent study variables included the ability of accruals, the information content of accruals, and amount of discretionary accruals considered as accruals quality measures. The dependent variable was non-systematic risk based on the Fama and French Three Factor model (FFTFM) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The control variables were firm size, financial leverage, stock return, cash flow fluctuations, and book-to-market ratio. The data collection method was based on library research and document mining including financial statements. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The study results showed that there is a significant direct relationship between financial leverage and discretionary accruals and non-systematic risk based on FFTFM and CAPM. There is also a significant direct relationship between the ability of accruals, information content of accruals, firm size, and stock return and non-systematic based on both models. It was also found that there is no relationship between book-to-market ratio and cash flow fluctuations and non-systematic risk.

Keywords: accruals quality, non-systematic risk, CAPM, FFTFM

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Authors: Su-Ping Liu, Yue Tian, Yifan Shen

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This study investigates the effect of corporate governance on earnings management when firms have reported a long stream of earnings increases (hereafter referred to as earnings beaters). We expect that good quality of corporate governance decreases the probability of income-increasing earnings management. We employ transparent tools to capture firms’ opportunistic management behavior, specifically, the repurchase of stock. In addition, we use corporate governance proxies to measure the degree of corporate governance, including board size, board independence, CEO duality, and the frequency of meeting. The results hold after the controlling of variables that suggested in prior literature. We expect that the simple technique, that is, firms’ degree of corporate governance, to be used as an inexpensive first step in detecting earnings management.

Keywords: corporate governance, earnings management, earnings patterns, stock repurchase

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Authors: Gurmail Singh

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Effective supply chain is the main priority of every organization which is the outcome of strategic corporate investments with deliberate management action. Value-driven supply chain is defined through development, procurement and by configuring the appropriate resources, metrics and processes. However, responsiveness of the supply chain can be improved by proper coordination. So the Bullwhip effect (BWE) and Net stock amplification (NSAmp) values were anticipated and used for the control of inventory in organizations by both discrete wavelet transform-Artificial neural network (DWT-ANN) and Adaptive Network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). This work presents a comparative methodology of forecasting for the customers demand which is non linear in nature for a multilevel supply chain structure using hybrid techniques such as Artificial intelligence techniques including Artificial neural networks (ANN) and Adaptive Network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Discrete wavelet theory (DWT). The productiveness of these forecasting models are shown by computing the data from real world problems for Bullwhip effect and Net stock amplification. The results showed that these parameters were comparatively less in case of discrete wavelet transform-Artificial neural network (DWT-ANN) model and using Adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS).

Keywords: bullwhip effect, hybrid techniques, net stock amplification, supply chain flexibility

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Authors: Md. Shafiullah, Ali T. Al-Awami

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This project proposes optimal scheduling of imported power of a load aggregator with the utilization of EVs to maximize its profit. As with the increase of renewable energy resources, electricity price in competitive market becomes more uncertain and, on the other hand, with the penetration of renewable distributed generators in the distribution network the predicted load of a load aggregator also becomes uncertain in real time. Though there is uncertainties in both load and price, the use of EVs storage capacity can make the operation of load aggregator flexible. LA submits its offer to day-ahead market based on predicted loads and optimized use of its EVs to maximize its profit, as well as in real time operation it uses its energy storage capacity in such a way that it can maximize its profit. In this project, load aggregators profit maximization algorithm is formulated and the optimization problem is solved with the help of CVX. As in real time operation the forecasted loads differ from actual load, the mismatches are settled in real time balancing market. Simulation results compare the profit of a load aggregator with a hypothetical group of 1000 EVs and without EVs.

Keywords: CVX, electricity market, load aggregator, load and price uncertainties, profit maximization, real time balancing operation

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Authors: Akber Oumer Abdurezak

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Road traffic accident is a major problem in Ethiopia, resulting in the deaths of many people and potential injuries and crash every year and loss of properties. According to the Federal Transport Authority, one of the main causes of traffic accident and crash in Ethiopia is over speeding. Implementation of different technologies is used to monitor the speed of vehicles in order to minimize accidents and crashes. This research aimed at designing a speed monitoring system to monitor the speed of travelling vehicles and movements, reporting illegal speeds or overspeeding vehicles to the concerned bodies. The implementation of the system is through a wireless sensor network. The proposed system can sense and detect the movement of vehicles, process, and analysis the data obtained from the sensor and the cloud system. The data is sent to the central controlling server. The system contains accelerometer and gyroscope sensors to sense and collect the data of the vehicle. Arduino to process the data and Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) module for communication purposes to send the data to the concerned body. When the speed of the vehicle exceeds the allowable speed limit, the system sends a message to database as “over speeding”. Both accelerometer and gyroscope sensors are used to collect acceleration data. The acceleration data then convert to speed, and the corresponding speed is checked with the speed limit, and those above the speed limit are reported to the concerned authorities to avoid frequent accidents. The proposed system decreases the occurrence of accidents and crashes due to overspeeding and can be used as an eye opener for the implementation of other intelligent transport system technologies. This system can also integrate with other technologies like GPS and Google Maps to obtain better output.

Keywords: accelerometer, IOT, GSM, gyroscope

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Authors: Piyanee Khumpao

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Under the Thai Penal Code and Customs Act, sex toys are criminalized and completely prohibited through the legal interpretation as obscene objects by law enforcement, despite there is no explicit legal sanction against them. The purpose of preventing people from accessing sex toys is to preserve public morals. However, sex toys are still available, exposed, and sold publicly in main cities throughout Thailand. They are easily observed by people of any age. This paper argues that sexuality is human nature and human right. Human deserves sexual pleasure as long as getting sexual pleasure does not inflict any harm on others. Using sex toys in private (individually and/or as a couple with mutual consent) does not constitute any harm nor degrade public moral. Therefore, the complete ban of sex toys shall be lifted and decriminalized. Nevertheless, the economic analysis illustrates that criminalization and prohibition of sex toys would lead to its black market – higher price and lower quantity. Although it is socially desirable to have fewer sex toys in the market, there will usually be high demand for them because sexual pleasure is natural and, hence, people have a lower price elasticity of demand for such things, including pornography. Thus, its deterrent effect is not very effective. Moreover, sex toys vendors still always exist because higher price incentivizes them to act illegally and may gain benefits from selling low-quality sex toys. Consequently, consumers do not have a choice to select high-quality sex toys at a reasonable price. Then, they are forced to purchase low quality sex toys at a higher price. They also may suffer from health issues as well as other harms from its dangerous/toxic substances since lower quality products are manufactured poorly to save costs. A law and economics approach supports the decriminalization of sex toys in Thailand. Other measures to control its availability shall be adopted to protect the vulnerable, such as children. Options are i) zoning or regulation on-premises selling sex toys as in Singapore, Japan, and China, ii) regulations of sex toys as medical apparatus like in the state of Alabama, and iii) the prevention of sex toys exposure in the real (physical) appearance (i.e., allowing virtual exposure of sex toys) like in India.

Keywords: human nature, law and economics approach, sex toys, sexual pleasure

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Authors: Sungik Kang, Ja-Hoon Koo

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Globally, urban environments have become unequal, and cities have been segmented by income class. It is predicted that urban inequality has arisen by urban redevelopment and reconstruction projects that improve the urban environment and innovate cities. This study aims to analyze the occurrence and characteristics of urban inequality by using the housing price and sale price and demonstrating the correlation with the urban redevelopment project. This study measures 14 years of urban inequality index for 25 autonomous districts in Seoul and analyzes the correlation between urban inequality with urban redevelopment projects. As a conclusion of this study, first, the urban inequality index of Seoul has been continuously rising since 2015. Trends from 2006 to 2019 have been in U-curved shape in between 2015. In 2019, Seoul's urban inequality index was 0.420, a level similar to that of the 2007 financial crisis. Second, the correlation between urban redevelopment and urban inequality was not statistically significant. Therefore, we judged that urban redevelopment's scale or project structure has nothing with urban inequality. Third, while district designation of urban reconstruction temporarily alleviates urban inequality, the completion of the project increases urban inequality. When designating a district, urban inequality is likely to decrease due to decreased outdated housing transactions. However, the correlation with urban inequality increases as expensive houses has been placed after project completion.

Keywords: urban inequality, urban redevelopment projects, urban reconstruction projects, housing price inequality, panel analysis

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Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

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Authors: Silas A. Ihedioha

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In this work; it is considered that an investor’s portfolio is comprised of two assets; a risky stock which price process is driven by the geometric Brownian motion and a risk-free asset with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Stochastic interest rate of return, where consumption, taxes, transaction costs and dividends are involved. This paper aimed at the optimization of the investor’s expected utility of consumption and terminal return on his investment at the terminal time having power utility preference. Using dynamic optimization procedure of maximum principle, a second order nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) (the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation HJB) was obtained from which an ordinary differential equation (ODE) obtained via elimination of variables. The solution to the ODE gave the closed form solution of the investor’s problem. It was found the optimal investment in the risky asset is horizon dependent and a ratio of the total amount available for investment and the relative risk aversion coefficient.

Keywords: optimal, investment, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, utility maximization, stochastic interest rate, maximum principle

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Authors: Siddarth A., Bhoomika K.

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Campuskart is a web-based platform that enables college students to buy and sell various items related to electronics, books, project materials, and electronic gadgets at reasonable prices. The application offers students the opportunity to resell their items at valuable and worthwhile prices, while also providing customers with the chance to purchase items at a lower price than the market price. The forthcoming paper will outline the various processes involved in developing the web application, including the design process, methodology, and overall functioning of the system. It will offer a comprehensive overview of how the platform operates and how it can benefit college students looking for affordable and convenient options for buying and selling various items.

Keywords: campuskart, web development, data structures, studentfriendlywebsite

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Authors: Onur Kaya, Halit Bayer

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Global grocery and supermarket sales are among the largest markets in the world and perishable products such as fresh produce, dairy and meat constitute the biggest section of these markets. Due to their deterioration over time, the demand for these products depends highly on their freshness. They become totally obsolete after a certain amount of time causing a high amount of wastage and decreases in grocery profits. In addition, customers are asking for higher product variety in perishable product categories, leading to less predictable demand per product and to more out-dating. Effective management of these perishable products is an important issue since it is observed that billions of dollars’ worth of food is expired and wasted every month. We consider coordinated inventory and pricing decisions for perishable products with a time and price dependent random demand function. We use stochastic dynamic programming to model this system for both periodically-reviewed and continuously-reviewed inventory systems and prove certain structural characteristics of the optimal solution. We prove that the optimal ordering decision scenario has a monotone structure and the optimal price value decreases by time. However, the optimal price changes in a non-monotonic structure with respect to inventory size. We also analyze the effect of 1 different parameters on the optimal solution through numerical experiments. In addition, we analyze simple-to-implement heuristics, investigate their effectiveness and extract managerial insights. This study gives valuable insights about the management of perishable products in order to decrease wastage and increase profits.

Keywords: age-dependent demand, dynamic programming, perishable inventory, pricing

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Authors: Shih-Ching Wang, Mark Lang

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This paper examines the secondary effects and consequences of special displays on subsequent shopping behavior. Special displays are studied as a prominent form of in-store or shopper marketing activity. Two experiments are performed using special value and special quality-oriented displays in an online simulated store environment. The impact of exposure to special displays on mindsets and resulting product choices are tested in a shopping task. Impact on store image is also tested. The experiments find that special displays do trigger shopping mindsets that affect product choices and shopping basket composition and value. There are intended and unintended positive and negative effects found. Special value displays improve store price image but trigger a price sensitive shopping mindset that causes more lower-priced items to be purchased, lowering total basket dollar value. Special natural food displays improve store quality image and trigger a quality-oriented mindset that causes fewer lower-priced items to be purchased, increasing total basket dollar value. These findings extend the theories of product categorization, mind-sets, and price sensitivity found in communication research into the retail store environment. Findings also warn retailers to consider the total effects and consequences of special displays when designing and executing in-store or shopper marketing activity.

Keywords: special displays, mindset, shopping behavior, price consciousness, product categorization, store image

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Authors: Nguyen Ngoc Que Tran

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between internal market orientation, external market orientation, employee commitment and job satisfaction. Design/methodology/approach: This study collected data through a survey and utilized simple linear regression and multiple regression analysis to determine if there was any support for the research hypotheses as presented in the previous chapter. Findings: Using data from 256 employees of four leading joint stock banks in Vietnam, the empirical results indicates that employee commitment is positively related with external market orientation, job satisfaction is positively related to employee commitment, and employee commitment and job satisfaction are positively related to external market orientation. However, job satisfaction has no significant positive effect on external market orientation. Theoretical contribution: The primary contribution to marketing theory arising from this study is the integration of job satisfaction, employee commitment, and external market orientation in a single research model. Practical implications: The major contribution to practice is an external market oriented bank has to respond rapidly to the future needs and preferences of its customers. This could result in high levels of commitment to the service process and in doing so provide Vietnamese joint-stock commercial banks with a competitive advantage. The finding is important for the banking service sector in general and the Vietnamese banking industry in particular.

Keywords: employee commitment, job satisfaction and external market orientation, vietnam, bank

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Authors: Elijah Acquah-Andoh

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The UK has had its fair share of the shale gas revolutionary waves blowing across the global oil and gas industry at present. Although, its exploitation is widely agreed to have been delayed, shale gas was looked upon favorably by the UK Parliament when they recognized it as genuine energy source and granted licenses to industry to search and extract the resource. This, although a significant progress by industry, there yet remains another test the UK fracking resource must pass in order to render shale gas extraction feasible – it must be economically extractible and sustainably so. Developing unconventional resources is much more expensive and risky, and for shale gas wells, producing in commercial volumes is conditional upon drilling horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing, techniques which increase CAPEX. Meanwhile, investment in shale gas development projects is sensitive to gas price and technical and geological risks. Using a Two-Factor Model, the economics of the Bowland shale wells were analyzed and the operational conditions under which fracking is profitable in the UK was characterized. We find that there is a great degree of flexibility about Opex spending; hence Opex does not pose much threat to the fracking industry in the UK. However, we discover Bowland shale gas wells fail to add value at gas price of $8/ Mmbtu. A minimum gas price of $12/Mmbtu at Opex of no more than $2/ Mcf and no more than $14.95M Capex are required to create value within the present petroleum tax regime, in the UK fracking industry.

Keywords: capex, economical, investment, profitability, shale gas development, sustainable

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Authors: Abdulrahman M. Alsuhaibani, Martin Maken

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FACTS devices have great influence on the grid stability and power markets price. Recently, there is intent to integrate a large scale of renewable energy sources to the power system which in turn push the power system to operate closer to the security limits. This paper discusses the power system stability and reliability improvement that could be achieved by using FACTS. There is a comparison between FACTS devices to evaluate their performance for different functions. A case study has also been made about its effect on reducing generation cost and minimizing transmission losses which have good impact on efficient and economic operation of electricity markets

Keywords: FACTS, grid stability, spot price, OPF

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Authors: Asanka U. K. Godamunne

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Road traffic accidents (RTA) are a leading cause of death globally as well as in Sri Lanka and results in a large proportion of disability especially among young people. Ninety-percent of world’s road traffic deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries. The gross disparities in injury outcomes relate to immediate post-crash and hospital management. Emergency management, methods of patient transportation following road traffic accidents and safety measures are important factors to reduce mortality and morbidity. Studies in this area are limited in Sri Lanka. The main objective of this research was to assess the emergency management and proper method of transportation of road traffic accident victims. This offers the best way to explore the ways to reduce the mortality and morbidity and raise the public awareness. This study was conducted as a descriptive cross-sectional study. All the consecutive road traffic accident victims admitted to surgical wards at District General Hospital, Matale, Sri Lanka, over a period of three months were included in the study. Data from 387 victims were analyzed. The majority were in the 20-30 year age group. Seventy six percent of the patients were males. Motorcycles and trishaws were most affected. First-aid was given to only 2% of patients and it was given by non-medical persons. A significant proportion of patients (75%) were transported to the hospital by trishaws and only 1% transported by ambulance. About 86% of the patients were seated while transport and 14% were flat. Limbs and head were the most affected areas of the body. As per this study, immediate post-crash management and patient transportation were not satisfactory. There is a need to strengthen certain road safety laws and make sure people follow them.

Keywords: emergency management, patient transportation, road traffic accident victims, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: S. L. Tulasi Devi, Shivam Azad

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The primary objective of this study is to analyze the impact of green bond issuance on the stock prices of respective Indian companies. An event study methodology has been employed to study the effect of green bond issuance. For in-depth study and analysis, this paper used different window frames, including 15-15 days, 10-10 days, 7-7days, 6-6 days, and 5-5 days. Further, for better clarity, this paper also used an uneven window period of 7-5 days. The period of study covered all the companies which issued green bonds during the period of 2017-2022; Adani Green Energy, State Bank of India, Power Finance Corporation, Jain Irrigation, and Rural Electrification Corporation, except Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency and Indian Railway Finance Corporation, because of data unavailability. The paper used all three event study methods as discussed in earlier literature; 1) constant return model, 2) market-adjusted model, and 3) capital asset pricing model. For the fruitful comparison between results, the study considered cumulative average return (CAR) and buy and hold average return (BHAR) methodology. For checking the statistical significance, a two-tailed t-statistic has been used. All the statistical calculations have been performed in Microsoft Excel 2016. The study found that all other companies have shown positive returns on the event day except for the State Bank of India. The results demonstrated that constant return model outperformed compared to the market-adjusted model and CAPM. The p-value derived from all the methods has shown an almost insignificant impact of the issuance of green bonds on the stock prices of respective companies. The overall analysis states that there’s not much improvement in the market efficiency of the Indian Stock Markets.

Keywords: green bonds, event study methodology, constant return model, market-adjusted model, CAPM

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Authors: Nabil Elkhatri, Mohamed Louay Metougui, Ngonidzashe Chirinda

Abstract:

Mining activities have left a legacy of degraded landscapes, prompting urgent efforts for ecological restoration. Reforestation holds promise as a potent tool to rehabilitate these old mining sites, with the potential to sequester carbon and contribute to climate change mitigation. This study focuses on evaluating the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species in the context of Morocco's mining areas, employing the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The research is grounded in recognizing the need to connect theoretical models with practical implementation, ensuring that reforestation efforts are informed by accurate and context-specific data. Field data collection encompasses growth patterns, biomass accumulation, and carbon sequestration rates, establishing an empirical foundation for the study's analyses. By integrating the collected data with the DNDC model, the study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of carbon dynamics within reforested ecosystems on old mining sites. The major findings reveal varying sequestration rates among different reforestation species, indicating the potential for species-specific optimization of reforestation strategies to enhance carbon capture. This research's significance lies in its potential to contribute to sustainable land management practices and climate change mitigation strategies. By quantifying the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species, the study serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, land managers, and practitioners involved in ecological restoration and carbon management. Ultimately, the study aligns with global objectives to rejuvenate degraded landscapes while addressing pressing climate challenges.

Keywords: carbon stock, carbon sequestration, DNDC model, ecological restoration, mining sites, Morocco, reforestation, sustainable land management.

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Authors: Engy Eissa, Dina M. Yousri

Abstract:

COVID-19 has hit massively the world economy, financial markets and even societies’ livelihood. The infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus was claimed responsible for a shrink in the global economy by 4.4% in 2020. Shortly after the first case in Wuhan was identified, a quick surge in the number of confirmed cases in China was evident and a vast spread worldwide is recorded with cases surpassing the 500,000 cases. Irrespective of the disease’s trajectory in each country, a call for immediate action and prompt government intervention was needed. Given that there is no one-size-fits-all approach across the world, a number of containment and adoption policies were embraced. It was starting by enforcing complete lockdown like China to even stricter policies targeted containing the spread of the virus, augmenting the efficiency of health systems, and controlling the economic outcomes arising from this crisis. Hence, this paper has three folds; first, it examines the impact of containment policies taken by governments on controlling the number of cases and deaths in the given countries. Second, to assess the ramifications of COVID-19 on financial markets measured by stock returns. Third, to study the impact of containment policies measured by the government response index, the stringency index, the containment health index, and the economic support index on financial markets performance. Using a sample of daily data covering the period 31st of January 2020 to 15th of April 2021 for the 10 most hit countries in wave one by COVID-19 namely; Brazil, India, Turkey, Russia, UK, USA, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy. The aforementioned relationships were tested using Panel VAR Regression. The preliminary results showed that the number of daily deaths had an impact on the stock returns; moreover, the health containment policies and the economic support provided by the governments had a significant effect on lowering the impact of COVID-19 on stock returns.

Keywords: COVID-19, government policies, stock returns, VAR

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Authors: Mohammad M. Garmabia, Peyman Shahia, Jimi Tjonga, Mohini Saina

Abstract:

Flame retardant composite filaments with functional carbon in the composition were fabricated, and printed parts showed enhancedcrash resistance pproperties and imporved EMI shielding. The negligible mass difference after prolonged immersion in automobile chemicals revealed the outstanding performance of parts for under-the-hood high-temperature applications.

Keywords: FDM, crash worthy, EMI Shield, lightweight, automotive parts

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

Abstract:

The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

Procedia PDF Downloads 87