Search results for: regime change

Authors: Ábrám Zoltán

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Introduction: Climate change is now a major health risk, and its environmental and health effects have become frequently discussed topics. The consequences of climate change are clearly visible in natural disasters and excess deaths caused by extreme weather conditions. Global warming and the increasingly frequent extreme weather events have direct, immediate effects or long-term, indirect effects on health. For this reason, it is a need to teach the health effects of climate change in medical schools. Material and methods: We looked for various surveys, studies, and reports on the main pathways through which global warming affects health. Medical schools face the challenge of teaching the health implications of climate change and integrating knowledge about the health effects of climate change into medical training. For this purpose, there were organised World Café workshops for three target groups: medical students, academic staff, and practising medical doctors. Results: Among the goals of the research is the development of a detailed curriculum for medical students, which serves to expand their knowledge in basic education. At the same time, the project promotes the increase of teacher motivation and the development of methodological guidelines for university teachers; it also provides further training for practicing doctors. The planned teaching materials will be developed in a format suitable for traditional face-to-face teaching, as well as e-learning teaching materials. CLIMATEMED is a project based on the cooperation of six universities and institutions from four countries, the aim of which is to improve the curriculum and expand knowledge about the health effects of climate change at medical universities. Conclusions: In order to assess the needs, summarize the proposals, to develop the necessary strategy, World Café type, one-and-a-half to two-hour round table discussions will take place separately for medical students, academic staff, and practicing doctors. The CLIMATEMED project can facilitate the integration of knowledge about the health effects of climate change into curricula and can promote practical use. The avoidance of the unwanted effects of global warming and climate change is not only a public matter, but it is also a challenge to change our own lifestyle. It is the responsibility of all of us to protect the Earth's ecosystem and the physical and mental health of ourselves and future generations.

Keywords: climate change, health effects, medical schools, World Café, medical students

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Authors: Safa'a M. Rasheed, Saba A. Gheni, Wadood T. Mohamed

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Phenolic compounds are the most carcinogenic pollutants in waste water in effluents of refineries and pulp industry. Catalytic wet air oxidation is an efficient industrial treatment process to oxidize phenolic compounds into unharmful organic compounds. Mode of flow of the fluid to be treated is a dominant factor in determining effectiveness of the catalytic process. The present study aims to obtain a mathematical model describing the conversion of phenolic compounds as a function of the process variables; mode of flow (trickling and pulsing), temperature, pressure, along with a high concentration of phenols and a platinum supported alumina catalyst. The model was validated with the results of experiments obtained in a fixed bed reactor. High pressure and temperature were employed at 8 bar and 140 °C. It has been found that conversion of phenols is highly influenced by mode of flow and the change is caused by changes occurred in hydrodynamic regime at the time of pulsing flow mode, thereby a temporal variation in wetting efficiency of platinum prevails; which in turn increases and/or decreases contact time with phenols in wastewater. The model obtained was validated with experimental results, and it is found that the model is a good agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: wastewater, phenol, pulsing flow, wet oxidation, high pressure

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Authors: Emmanuel Olasope Bamigboye, Ismail Oladeji Oladosu

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Local people of south-western Nigeria like in other climes, continue to be confronted with the vagaries of changing environments. Through the modification of existing practice and shifting resource base, their strategies for coping with change have enabled them to successfully negotiate the shifts in climate change and the environment. This article analyses indigenous adaptation strategies for climate change with a view to enhancing sustainable crop farming in south –western Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select 340 respondents from the two major ecological zones (Forest and Derived Savannah) for good geographical spread. The article draws on mixed methods of qualitative research, literature review, field observations, informal interview and multinomial logit regression to capture choice probabilities across the various options of climate change adaptation options among arable crop farmers. The study revealed that most 85.0% of the arable crop farmers were males. It also showed that the use of local climate change adaptation strategies had no relationship with the educational level of the respondents as 77.3% had educational experiences at varying levels. Furthermore, the findings showed that seven local adaptation strategies were commonly utilized by arable crop farmers. Nonetheless, crop diversification, consultation with rainmakers and involvement in non-agricultural ventures were prioritized in the order of 1-3, respectively. Also, multinomial logit analysis result showed that at p ≤ 0.05 level of significance, household size (P<0.08), sex (p<0.06), access to loan(p<0.16), age(p<0.07), educational level (P<0.17) and functional extension contact (P<0.28) were all important in explaining the indigenous climate change adaptation utilized by the arable crops farmers in south-western Nigeria. The study concluded that all the identified local adaptation strategies need to be integrated into the development process for sustainable climate change adaptation.

Keywords: crop diversification, climate change, adaptation option, sustainable, small farmers

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Authors: Syed Toqueer Akhter, Muhammad Muzaffar Abbas

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Conflicts in Pakistan are a result of a configuration of factors, which are directly related to the system of the state, the unstable regional setting, and the geo-strategic location of Pakistan at large. This paper examines the impact of regional conflict onto the socio-political sustainability of Pakistan. The magnitude of the spillover from a conflicted region is similar in size of the equivalent increase in domestic conflict. Pakistan has gone at war three times with India; the border with India is named as the tensest borderlines of the world. Disagreements with India and lack of dispute settlement mechanisms have negatively effected the peace in the region, influx of illegal weapons and refugees from Afghanistan as an outcome of 9/11 incidence, have exasperated the criticality of levels of internal conflict in Pakistan. Our empirical findings are based on the data collected on regional conflict levels, regional trade, global trade, comparative defence capabilities of the region in contrast to Pakistan and the government regime (Autocratic, Democratic) over 1972-2007. It has been proposed in this paper that the intent of domestic conflict is associated with the conflict in the region, regional trade, global trade and the government regime of Pakistan. The estimated model (OLS) implies that domestic conflict is effected positively and significantly with long term impact of conflict in the region. Also, if defence capabilities of the region are better than that of Pakistan it effects domestic conflict positively and significantly. Conflict in neighbouring countries are found as a source of domestic conflict in Pakistan, whereas the regional trade as well as type of government regimes in Pakistan lowered the intensity of domestic conflict significantly, while globalized trade imply risk of domestic conflict to be reduced but not significantly.

Keywords: conflict, regional trade, socio-politcal instability

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahimi, Yuji Hoshino, Kota Masuyama, Naoya Nakajima

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The aim of this paper is to study the behavior or influence of climate adaptation and change in Kabul Metropolitan Area (KMA). The Kabul Metropolitan Area (KMA) in Afghanistan includes Kabul existing city and Kabul New City (KNC). Kabul Metropolitan Area has admitted the challenges due to climate change, which includes, natural climate change, social transformations, city landscape, economic and political issues, etc. KMA will withhold a large population within its boundaries. The main problems competed in KMA were the temperature changes over the years, especially in Hindukush and Central Highland of Afghanistan from 1950 up to 2010, 1°C and 1.71°C raised respectively and reduction of water table in existing Kabul city due to the use of more water from underground water resources. Moreover, the cause of temperature rise, the precipitation in spring season and melting of snow early or melting in compressed time as well as the water source is directly related to the capacity of the mountains snow and precipitation. In addition, the temperature increased, and precipitation declined in spring period. It is directly related to separation of dissertation, migration to the cities and other challenges that we will discuss in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, climate adaption, adaptation in Kabul metropolitan area, precipitation

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Authors: B. S. Choudri

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Introduction: Climate change is a major threat to rural livelihoods and to food security in the developing world, including Oman. The aim of this study is to provide a basis for policymakers and researchers in order to understand the impacts of climate change on agriculture and developing adaptation strategies in Oman. Methodology: The data was collected from different agricultural areas across the country with the help of a questionnaire survey among farmers, discussion with community, and observations at the field level. Results: The analysis of data collected from different areas within the country shows a shift in the sowing period of major crops and increased temperatures over recent years. Farmer community is adopting through diversification of crops, use of heat-tolerant species, and improved measures of soil and water conservation. Agriculture has been the main livelihood for most of the farmer communities in rural areas in the country. Conclusions: In order to reduce the effects of climate change at the local and farmer communities, risk reduction would be important along with an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability. Therefore, capacity building of local farmers and providing them with scientific knowledge, mainstreaming adaptation into development activities would be essential with additional funding and subsidies.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change, vulnerability, adaptation

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Authors: Thani R. Said

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There is a wide concern on the academic literatures that the world is on course to experience “severe and pervasive” negative impacts from climate change unless it takes rapid action to slash its greenhouse gas emissions. The big threat however, is more belligerent in the third world countries, small islands states in particular. Most of the academic literatures claims that the livelihoods, economic and ecological landscapes of most of the coastal communities are into serious danger due to the peril of climate change. However, focusing the climate change alone and paying less intention to the surrounding stressors which sometimes are apparent then the climate change its self has now placed at the greater concern on academic debates. The recently studies have begun to question such narrowed assessment of climate change intervening programs from both its methodological and theoretical perspectives as related with livelihoods and the landscapes of the coastal communities. Looking climate as alone as an ostentatious threat doesn't yield the yield an appropriate mechanisms to address the problem in its totality and tend to provide the partially picture of the real problem striking the majority of the peoples living in the coastal areas of small islands states, Zanzibar in particular. By using the multiples human grounded knowledge approaches, the objective of this study is to go beyond the mere climate change by analyzing other multiples stressors that real challenging and treating the livelihoods, economic and ecological landscapes of the coastal communities through dialectic understanding, vulnerability and adaptive mechanisms at their own localities. To be more focus and to capture the full picture on this study special intention will be given to those areas were climate changes intervening programs have been onto place, the study will further compare and contrast between the two islands communities, Unguja and Pemba taking into account their respective diverse economic and geographical landscapes prevailed.

Keywords: climate change, multiple stressors, livelihoods, vulnerability-adaptation

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Authors: Jayahar Sivasubramanian

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Understanding laminar-turbulent transition process in hyper-sonic boundary layers is crucial for designing viable high speed flight vehicles. The study of transition becomes particularly important in the high speed regime due to the effect of transition on aerodynamic performance and heat transfer. However, even after many years of research, the transition process in hyper-sonic boundary layers is still not understood. This lack of understanding of the physics of the transition process is a major impediment to the development of reliable transition prediction methods. Towards this end, spatial Direct Numerical Simulations are conducted to investigate the instability waves generated by a localized disturbance in a hyper-sonic flat plate boundary layer. In order to model a natural transition scenario, the boundary layer was forced by a short duration (localized) pulse through a hole on the surface of the flat plate. The pulse disturbance developed into a three-dimensional instability wave packet which consisted of a wide range of disturbance frequencies and wave numbers. First, the linear development of the wave packet was studied by forcing the flow with low amplitude (0.001% of the free-stream velocity). The dominant waves within the resulting wave packet were identified as two-dimensional second mode disturbance waves. Hence the wall-pressure disturbance spectrum exhibited a maximum at the span wise mode number k = 0. The spectrum broadened in downstream direction and the lower frequency first mode oblique waves were also identified in the spectrum. However, the peak amplitude remained at k = 0 which shifted to lower frequencies in the downstream direction. In order to investigate the nonlinear transition regime, the flow was forced with a higher amplitude disturbance (5% of the free-stream velocity). The developing wave packet grows linearly at first before reaching the nonlinear regime. The wall pressure disturbance spectrum confirmed that the wave packet developed linearly at first. The response of the flow to the high amplitude pulse disturbance indicated the presence of a fundamental resonance mechanism. Lower amplitude secondary peaks were also identified in the disturbance wave spectrum at approximately half the frequency of the high amplitude frequency band, which would be an indication of a sub-harmonic resonance mechanism. The disturbance spectrum indicates, however, that fundamental resonance is much stronger than sub-harmonic resonance.

Keywords: boundary layer, DNS, hyper sonic flow, instability waves, wave packet

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Authors: O. Y. Yurieva, O. V. Yurieva, O. V. Kiselkina, A. V. Kamaseva

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Since the early 2000s, there are some innovative changes in the civil service in Russia due to administrative reform. Perspectives of the reform of the civil service include a fundamental change in the personnel component, increasing the level of professionalism of officials, increasing their capacity for self-organization and self-regulation. In order to achieve this, the civil service must be able to continuously change. Organizational changes have long become the subject of scientific understanding; problems of research in the field of organizational change is presented by topics focused on the study of the methodological aspects of the implementation of the changes, the specifics of changes in different types of organizations (business, government, and so on), design changes in the organization, including based on the change in organizational culture. In this case, the organizational changes in the civil service are the least studied areas; research of problems of its transformation is carried out in fragments. According to the theory of resistance of Herbert Simon, the root of the opposition and rejection of change is in the person who will resist any change, if it threatens to undermine the degree of satisfaction as a member of the organization (regardless of the reasons for this change). Thus, the condition for successful adaptation to changes in the organization is the ability of its staff to perceive innovation. As part of the problem, the study sought to identify the innovation civil servants, to determine readiness for the development of proposals for the implementation of organizational change in the public service. To identify the relationship to organizational changes case study carried out by the method of "Attitudes to organizational change" of I. Motovilina, which allowed predicting the type of resistance to changes, to reveal the contradictions and hidden results. The advantage of the method of I. Motovilina is its brevity, simplicity, the analysis of the responses to each question, the use of "overlapping" issues potentially conflicting factors. Based on the study made by the authors, it was found that respondents have a positive attitude to change more local than those that take place in reality, such as "increase opportunities for professional growth", "increase the requirements for the level of professionalism of", "the emergence of possible manifestations initiatives from below". Implemented by the authors diagnostics related to organizational changes in the public service showed the presence of specific problem areas, with roots in the lack of understanding of the importance of innovation personnel in the process of bureaucratization of innovation in public service organizations.

Keywords: innovative changes, self-organization, self-regulation, civil service

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Authors: Radouane Elbahjaoui, Hamid El Qarnia

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Melting of Paraffin Wax (P116) dispersed with Al₂O₃ nanoparticles in a rectangular latent heat storage unit (LHSU) is numerically investigated. The storage unit consists of a number of vertical and identical plates of nano-enhanced phase change material (NEPCM) separated by rectangular channels in which heat transfer fluid flows (HTF: Water). A two dimensional mathematical model is considered to investigate numerically the heat and flow characteristics of the LHSU. The melting problem was formulated using the enthalpy porosity method. The finite volume approach was used for solving equations. The effects of nanoparticles’ volumetric fraction and the Reynolds number on the thermal performance of the storage unit were investigated.

Keywords: nano-enhanced phase change material (NEPCM), phase change material (PCM), nanoparticles, latent heat storage unit (LHSU), melting.

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Authors: Päärn Paiste, Margit Kõiv, Riho Mõtlep, Kalle Kirsimäe

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For small-scale wastewater management, the treatment wetlands (TWs) as a low cost alternative to conventional treatment facilities, can be used. However, P removal capacity of TW systems is usually problematic. P removal in TWs is mainly dependent on the physico–chemical and hydrological properties of the filter material. Highest P removal efficiency has been shown trough Ca-phosphate precipitation (i.e. active filtration) in Ca-rich alkaline filter materials, e.g. industrial by-products like hydrated oil shale ash (HOSA), metallurgical slags. In this contribution we report preliminary results of a full-scale TW system using HOSA material for P removal for a municipal wastewater at Nõo site, Estonia. The main goals of this ongoing project are to evaluate: a) the long-term P removal efficiency of HOSA using real waste water; b) the effect of high organic loading rate; c) variable P-loading effects on the P removal mechanism (adsorption/direct precipitation); and d) the form and composition of phosphate precipitates. Onsite full-scale experiment with two concurrent filter systems for treatment of municipal wastewater was established in September 2013. System’s pretreatment steps include septic tank (2 m2) and vertical down-flow LECA filters (3 m2 each), followed by horizontal subsurface HOSA filters (effective volume 8 m3 each). Overall organic and hydraulic loading rates of both systems are the same. However, the first system is operated in a stable hydraulic loading regime and the second in variable loading regime that imitates the wastewater production in an average household. Piezometers for water and perforated sample containers for filter material sampling were incorporated inside the filter beds to allow for continuous in-situ monitoring. During the 18 months of operation the median removal efficiency (inflow to outflow) of both systems were over 99% for TP, 93% for COD and 57% for TN. However, we observed significant differences in the samples collected in different points inside the filter systems. In both systems, we observed development of preferred flow paths and zones with high and low loadings. The filters show formation and a gradual advance of a “dead” zone along the flow path (zone with saturated filter material characterized by ineffective removal rates), which develops more rapidly in the system working under variable loading regime. The formation of the “dead” zone is accompanied by the growth of organic substances on the filter material particles that evidently inhibit the P removal. Phase analysis of used filter materials using X-ray diffraction method reveals formation of minor amounts of amorphous Ca-phosphate precipitates. This finding is supported by ATR-FTIR and SEM-EDS measurements, which also reveal Ca-phosphate and authigenic carbonate precipitation. Our first experimental results demonstrate that organic pollution and loading regime significantly affect the performance of hydrated ash filters. The material analyses also show that P is incorporated into a carbonate substituted hydroxyapatite phase.

Keywords: active filtration, apatite, hydrated oil shale ash, organic pollution, phosphorus

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Authors: J. Niemisto, A. Nissinen, S. Soimakallio

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Aviation causes carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and other climate forcers which increase the contribution of aviation on climate change. Aviation industry and number of air travellers are constantly increasing. Aviation industry has an ambitious goal to strongly cut net CO2 emissions. Modern fleet, alternative jet fuels technologies and route optimisation are important technological tools in the emission reduction. Faster approaches are needed as well. Emission trade systems, voluntary carbon offset compensation schemes and taxation are already in operation. Global scenarios of aviation industry and its greenhouse gas emissions and other climate forcers are discussed in this review study based on literature and other published data. The focus is on the aviation in Nordic countries, but also European and global situation are considered. Different emission reduction technologies and compensation modes are examined. In addition, the role of aviation in a single passenger’s (a Finnish consumer) annual carbon footprint is analysed and a comparison of available emission calculators and carbon offset systems is performed. Long-haul fights have a significant role in a single consumer´s and company´s carbon footprint, but remarkable change in global emission level would need a huge change in attitudes towards flying.

Keywords: aviation, climate change, emissions, environment

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Authors: Rushva Parihar, Anushka Barua

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The negative repercussions of a warming planet are already visible, with biodiversity loss, water scarcity, and extreme weather events becoming ever so frequent. The agriculture sector is perhaps the most impacted, and modern agriculture has failed to defend farmers from the effects of climate change. This, coupled with the added pressure of higher demands for food production caused due to population growth, has only compounded the impact. Traditional agricultural practices that are routed in indigenous knowledge have long safeguarded the delicate balance of the ecosystem through sustainable production techniques. This paper uses secondary data to explore these traditional processes (like Beejamrita, Jeevamrita, sheep penning, earthen bunding, and others) from around the world that have been developed over centuries and focuses on how they can be used to tackle contemporary issues arising from climate change (such as nutrient and water loss, soil degradation, increased incidences of pests). Finally, the resulting framework has been applied to the context of Indian agriculture as a means to combat climate change and improve food security, all while encouraging documentation and transfer of local knowledge as a shared resource among farmers.

Keywords: sustainable food systems, traditional agricultural practices, climate smart agriculture, climate change, indigenous knowledge

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Authors: Mazyar Ahrari, Ramin Khajavi, Mehdi Kamali Dolatabadi, Tayebeh Toliyat, Abosaeed Rashidi

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Fabric as the first and most common layer that is in permanent contact with human skin is a very good interface to provide coverage, as well as heat and cold insulation. Phase change materials (PCMs) are organic and inorganic compounds which have the capability of absorbing and releasing noticeable amounts of latent heat during phase transitions between solid and liquid phases at a low temperature range. PCMs come across phase changes (liquid-solid and solid-liquid transitions) during absorbing and releasing thermal heat; so, in order to use them for a long time, they should have been encapsulated in polymeric shells, so-called microcapsules. Microencapsulation and nanoencapsulation methods have been developed in order to reduce the reactivity of a PCM with outside environment, promoting the ease of handling, decreasing the diffusion and evaporation rates. Methods of incorporation of PCMs in textiles such as electrospinning and determining thermal properties had been summarized. Paraffin waxes catch a lot of attention due to their high thermal storage density, repeatability of phase change, thermal stability, small volume change during phase transition, chemical stability, non-toxicity, non-flammability, non-corrosive and low cost and they seem to play a key role in confronting with climate change and global warming. In this article, we aimed to review the researches concentrating on the characteristics of PCMs and new materials and methods of microencapsulation.

Keywords: thermoregulation, microencapsulation, phase change materials, thermal energy storage, nanoencapsulation

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Authors: Gargi S. Kumar, Mrinmoyi Kulkarni

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Food choice behavior is complex and determined by biological, psychological, socio-cultural, and economic factors. The past two decades, have seen dramatic changes in food consumption patterns among urban Indian consumers. The objective of the current study was to evaluate perceptions about changes with respect to food choice behavior. Ten participants [urban men and women] ranging in age from 40 to 65 were selected and in-depth interviews were conducted with a set of open ended questions. The recorded interviews were transcribed and thematically analyzed using inductive, open and axial coding. The results identified themes that act as drivers and consequences of change in food choice behavior. Drivers such as globalization [sub themes of urbanization, education, income, and work environment], media and advertising, changing gender roles, women in the workforce, and change in family structure have influenced food choice, both at an individual and national level. The consequences of changes in food choice were health implications, processed food consumption, food decisions driven by children and eating out among others. The study reveals that, over time, food choices change and evolve. However it is interesting to note how market forces and culture interact to influence individual behavior and the overall food environment which subsequently affects food choice and the health of the people.

Keywords: change, consequences, drivers, food choice, globalization

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Authors: Jakub Elbl, Lukáš Plošek, Antonín Kintl, Jaroslav Hynšt, Soňa Javoreková, Jaroslav Záhora, Libor Kalhotka, Olga Urbánková, Ivana Charousová

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This work presents the first results from the long-term laboratory experiment dealing with impact of drought on soil properties. Three groups of the treatment (A, B and C) with different regime of irrigation were prepared. The soil water content was maintained at 70 % of soil water holding capacity in group A, at 40 % in group B. In group C, soil water regime was maintained in the range of wilting point. Each group of the experiment was divided into three variants (A1 = B1, C1; A2 = B2, C2 etc.) with three repetitions: Variants A1 (B1, C1) were controls without addition of another fertilizer. Variants A2 (B2, C2) were fertilized with mineral nitrogen fertilizer DAM 390 (0.140 Mg of N per ha) and variants A3 (B3, C3) contained 45 g of Cp per a pot. The significant differences (ANOVA, P<0.05) in the leaching of mineral nitrogen and values of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) were found. The highest values of Ksat were found in variants (within each group) with addition of compost (A3, B3, C3). Conversely, the lowest values of Ksat were found in variants with addition of mineral nitrogen. Low values of Ksat indicate an increased level of hydrophobicity in individual groups of the experiment. Moreover, all variants with compost addition showed lower amount of mineral nitrogen leaching and high level of microbial activity than variants without. This decrease of mineral nitrogen leaching was about 200 % in comparison with the control variant and about 300 % with variant, where mineral nitrogen was added. Based on these results, we can conclude that changes of soil water content directly have impact on microbial activity, soil hydrophobicity and loss of mineral nitrogen from the soil.

Keywords: drought, microbial activity, mineral nitrogen, soil hydrophobicity

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Authors: Marziyeh Khavari

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In recent decades, climate change, global warming, and the growing population worldwide face some challenges, such as increasing food consumption and shortage of resources. Assessing how climate change could disturb crops, especially hazelnut production, seems crucial for sustainable agriculture production. For hazelnut cultivation in the mid-warm condition, such as in Iran, here we present an investigation of climate parameters and how much they are effective on fertility and nut production of hazelnut trees. Therefore, the climate change of the northern zones in Iran has investigated (1960-2017) and was reached an uptrend in temperature. Furthermore, the descriptive analysis performed on six cultivars during seven years shows how this small-scale survey could demonstrate the effects of climate change on hazelnut production and stability. Results showed that some climate parameters are more significant on nut production, such as solar radiation, soil temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. Moreover, some cultivars have produced more stable production, for instance, Negret and Segorbe, while the Mervill de Boliver recorded the most variation during the study. Another aspect that needs to be met is training and predicting an actual model to simulate nut production through a neural network and linear regression simulation. The study developed and estimated the ANN model's generalization capability with different criteria such as RMSE, SSE, and accuracy factors for dependent and independent variables (environmental and yield traits). The models were trained and tested while the accuracy of the model is proper to predict hazelnut production under fluctuations in weather parameters.

Keywords: climate change, neural network, hazelnut, global warming

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Authors: Shyamli Singh, Ishupinder Kaur, Vinod K. Sharma

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Climate Change refers to the change in climate for extended period of time. Climate is changing from the past history of earth but anthropogenic activities accelerate this rate of change and which is now being a global issue. Increase in greenhouse gas emissions is causing global warming and climate change related issues at an alarming rate. Increasing temperature results in climate variability across the globe. Changes in rainfall patterns, intensity and extreme events are some of the impacts of climate change. Rainfall variability refers to the degree to which rainfall patterns varies over a region (spatial) or through time period (temporal). Temporal rainfall variability can be directly or indirectly linked to climate change. Such variability in rainfall increases the vulnerability of communities towards climate change. Increasing urbanization and unplanned developmental activities, the air quality is deteriorating. This paper mainly focuses on the rainfall variability due to increasing level of greenhouse gases. Rainfall data of 65 years (1951-2015) of Safdarjung station of Delhi was collected from Indian Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall test for time-series data analysis. Mann-Kendall test is a statistical tool helps in analysis of trend in the given data sets. The slope of the trend can be measured through Sen’s slope estimator. Data was analyzed monthly, seasonally and yearly across the period of 65 years. The monthly rainfall data for the said period do not follow any increasing or decreasing trend. Monsoon season shows no increasing trend but here was an increasing trend in the pre-monsoon season. Hence, the actual rainfall differs from the normal trend of the rainfall. Through this analysis, it can be projected that there will be an increase in pre-monsoon rainfall than the actual monsoon season. Pre-monsoon rainfall causes cooling effect and results in drier monsoon season. This will increase the vulnerability of communities towards climate change and also effect related developmental activities.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, Mann-Kendall test, rainfall variability, Sen's slope

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Authors: Dimitris Kokkinos, Panagiotis Prinos

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In the last three decades, climate change has been studied extensively from scientific community, and its consequences are more than clear all around the world. Most countries have carried out a great effort to reduce global warming rates with the ratification and implementation of several international treaties. Moreover, many of them have already adopted national plans in order to adapt to climate change effects and mitigate human and economic losses. Coastal environments, with their inherent physical sensitivity, will face important challenges as a result of projected changes in climate conditions and hundreds of millions of people will be affected. Coastal zones are of high social and economic value and this research focuses on the Mediterranean basin, which is a densely populated and highly urbanized area. With 40% of its land used for human activity and the inevitability of the impacts of the climate change, it is obvious that some form of adaptation measures will be necessary. In this regard, the EU tools, policies and legislation concerning adaptation to climate change are presented. Additionally, the National Adaptation Strategies of State members of the Mediterranean basin are compared and analyzed concerning the coastal areas, along with an overview of projects and programs results focused on coastal issues at different spatial scales. The purpose of this research is to stress the differences between Mediterranean State members at methodologies implemented, to highlight the possible gaps in co-ordination and to emphasize on research initiatives that EU can build upon moving towards an integrated adaptation planning on a region-wide basis.

Keywords: coastal adaptation, Mediterranean Basin, climate change, coastal environments

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Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

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In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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Authors: Sudarshan Chalise, Athula Naranpanawa

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This paper attempts to investigate the viability of cropland re-allocation as an adaptation strategy to minimise the economy-wide costs of climate change on agriculture. Nepal makes an interesting case study as it is one of the most vulnerable agricultural economies within South Asia. This paper develops a comparative static multi-household Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal with a nested set of Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) functional forms to model the allocation of land within different agricultural sectors. Land transformation elasticities in these CET functions are allowed to reflect the ease of switching from one crop to another based on their agronomic characteristics. The results suggest that, in the long run, farmers in Nepal tend to allocate land to crops that are comparatively less impacted by climate change, such as paddy, thereby minimizing the economy-wide impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the results reveal that land re-allocation tends to reduce the income disparity among different household groups by significantly moderating the income losses of rural marginal farmers. Therefore, it is suggested that policy makers in Nepal should prioritise schemes such as providing climate-smart paddy varieties (i.e., those that are resistant to heat, drought and floods) to farmers, subsidising fertilizers, improving agronomic practices, and educating farmers to switch from crops that are highly impacted by climate change to those that are not, such as paddy.

Keywords: climate change, general equilibrium, land re-allocation, nepalese agriculture

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Authors: Gabriel Jinga, Madalina Dumitru

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The objective of this paper is to present the process of change in management accounting in Romania, a former communist country from Eastern Europe. In order to explain this process, we used the contingency and institutional theories. We focused on the following directions: the presentation of the scientific context and motivation of this research and the case study. We presented the state of the art in the process of change in the management accounting from the international and national perspective. We also described the evolution of management accounting in Romania in the context of economic and political changes. An important moment was the fall of communism in 1989. This represents a starting point for a new economic environment and for new management accounting. Accordingly, we developed a case study which presented this evolution. The conclusion of our research was that the changes in the management accounting system of the company analysed occurred in the same time with the institutionalization of some elements (e.g. degree of competition, training and competencies in management accounting). The management accounting system was modeled by the contingencies specific to this company (e.g. environment, industry, strategy).

Keywords: management accounting, change, Romania, contingency, institutional theory

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Authors: Banazzouz Halima

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Throughout the ages, language has been viewed not only as a simple code of communicating information but rather as the most powerful and versatile medium of maintaining relationships with other people. While,by the end of the 18th century, such matters of scientific investigation concerning the study of human language began to occur under the scope of “Linguistics” generally defined as the scientific study of language. Linguistics, thus, provides a growing body of scientific knowledge about language which can guide the activity of the language teacher and student as well. Moreover,as times passed, the linguistic development engaged language in a broadly practiced academic discipline having relationship with other sciences such as: psychology, sociology, anthropology etc. Therefore, “Sociolinguistics” was given birth during the 1960’s. In fact, the given abstract is mainly linguistic, inserted under the scope of “Sociolinguistics” and by far it highlights on the process of linguistic variation and language change to show that all languages change through time and linguistic systems may vary from one speech community to another providing there is a sense of vitality where people of different parts of the globe may mutually and intelligibly communicate and comprehend each other.

Keywords: language change-sociolinguistics, social context-speech community, vitality of language, linguistic variation, urban dialectology, urban dialectology

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Authors: Deyadeen Ali Alshibani

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In the literature, the multi-armed bandit problem as a statistical decision model of an agent trying to optimize his decisions while improving his information at the same time. There are several different algorithms models and their applications on this problem. In this paper, we evaluate the Regret-regression through comparing with Q-learning method. A simulation on determination of optimal treatment regime is presented in detail.

Keywords: optimal, bandit problem, optimization, dynamic programming

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Authors: Subhasisa Nath, David Waugh, Graham Ormondroyd, Morwenna Spear, Andy Pitman, Paul Mason

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Wood is one of the most sustainable and environmentally favourable materials and is chemically treated in timber industries to maximise durability. To increase the chemical preservative uptake and retention by the wood, current limiting incision technologies are commonly used. This work reports the effects of single pulse CO2 laser-incision and frequency tripled Nd:YAG percussion laser-incision on the characteristics of laser-incised holes in the Radiata Pine. The laser-incision studies were based on changing laser wavelengths, energies and focal planes to conclude on an optimised combination for the laser-incision of Radiata Pine. The laser pulse duration had a dominant effect over laser power in controlling hole aspect ratio in CO2 laser-incision. A maximum depth of ~ 30 mm was measured with a laser power output of 170 W and a pulse duration of 80 ms. However, increased laser power led to increased carbonisation of holes. The carbonisation effect was reduced during laser-incision in the ultra-violet (UV) regime. Deposition of a foamy phase on the laser-incised hole wall was evident irrespective of laser radiation wavelength and energy. A maximum hole depth of ~20 mm was measured in the percussion laser-incision in the UV regime (355 nm) with a pulse energy of 320 mJ. The radial and tangential faces had a significant effect on laser-incision efficiency for all laser wavelengths. The laser-incised hole shapes and circularities were affected by the wood anatomy (earlywoods and latewoods in the structure). Subsequently, the mechanism of laser-incision is proposed by analysing the internal structure of laser-incised holes.

Keywords: CO2 Laser, Nd: YAG laser, incision, drilling, wood, hole characteristics

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Authors: V. Jafari, M. Jafari

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When long-term changes in normal weather patterns happen in a certain area, it generally could be identified as climate change. Concentration of principal's greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, ozone, and water vapor will cause climate change and perhaps climate variability. Main climate factors are temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and humidity. Extreme events may be the result of the changing of carbon dioxide concentration levels in the atmosphere which cause a change in temperature. Extreme events in some ways will affect the productivity of crop and dairy livestock. In this research, the correlation of milk production and temperature as the main climate factor in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran has been considered. The methodology employed for this study consists, collect reports and published national and provincial data, available recorded data on climate factors and analyzing collected data using statistical software. Milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari province is in the same pattern as national milk production in Iran. According to the current study results, there is a significant negative correlation between milk production in ChaharMahal and Bakhtiari provinces and temperature as the main climate change factor.

Keywords: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, climate change, impacts, Iran, milk production

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Authors: Shivi Agarwal, Trilok Mathur

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This paper proposes the method to measure the total factor productivity (TFP) change by credibility theory for fuzzy input and output variables. Total factor productivity change has been widely studied with crisp input and output variables, however, in some cases, input and output data of decision-making units (DMUs) can be measured with uncertainty. These data can be represented as linguistic variable characterized by fuzzy numbers. Malmquist productivity index (MPI) is widely used to estimate the TFP change by calculating the total factor productivity of a DMU for different time periods using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The fuzzy DEA (FDEA) model is solved using the credibility theory. The results of FDEA is used to measure the TFP change for fuzzy input and output variables. Finally, numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed method to measure the TFP change input and output variables. The suggested methodology can be utilized for performance evaluation of DMUs and help to assess the level of integration. The methodology can also apply to rank the DMUs and can find out the DMUs that are lagging behind and make recommendations as to how they can improve their performance to bring them at par with other DMUs.

Keywords: chance-constrained programming, credibility theory, data envelopment analysis, fuzzy data, Malmquist productivity index

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Authors: Nemanja Kidzin, Danka Puric

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Recently, the field of personality change has received an increasing amount of attention. Previously under-researched variables, such as the intention to change or taking on new social roles (in a working environment, education, family, etc.), have been shown to be relevant for personality change. Following this line of research, our study aimed to determine whether the process of acting can bring about personality changes in students of acting and, if yes, in which way. We hypothesized that there will be a significant difference between self-reported personality traits of students acting at the beginning and the end of preparing for a role. Additionally, as potential moderator variables, we measured the reported personality traits of the roles the students were acting, as well as empathy, disintegration, and years of formal education. The sample (N = 47) was composed of students of acting from the Faculty of Dramatic Arts (first- to fourth-year) and the Faculty of Modern Arts (first-year students only). Participants' mean age was 20.2 (SD = 1.47), and there were 64% of females. The procedure included two waves of testing (T1 at the beginning and T2 at the end of the semester), and students’ acting exercises and character immersion comprised the pseudo-experimental procedure. Students’ personality traits (HEXACO-60, self-report version), empathy (Questionnaire of Cognitive and Affective Empathy, QCAE), and disintegration (DELTA9, 10-item version) were measured at both T1 and T2, while the personality of the role (HEXACO-60 observer version) was measured at T2. Responses to all instruments were given on a 5-point Likert scale. A series of repeated-measures T-tests showed significant differences in emotionality (t(46) = 2.56, p = 0.014) and conscientiousness (t(46) = -2.39, p = 0.021) between T1 and T2. Moreover, an index of absolute personality change was significantly different from 0 for all traits (range .53 to .34, t(46) = 4.20, p < .001 for the lowest index. The average test-retest correlation for HEXACO traits was 0.57, which is lower than proposed by other similar researches. As for moderator variables, neither the personality of the role nor empathy or disintegration explained the change in students’ personality traits. The magnitude of personality change was the highest in fourth-year students, with no significant differences between the remaining three years of studying. Overall, our results seem to indicate some personality changes in students of acting. However, these changes cannot be unequivocally related to the process of preparing for a role. Further and methodologically stricter research is needed to unravel the role of acting in personality change.

Keywords: theater, personality change, acting, HEXACO

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Authors: Indu Gupta

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Climate change and global warming is most burning issue for “our common future”. For this common global interest. Countries organize conferences of government and nongovernment type. Human being destroying the non-renewable resources and polluting the renewable resources of planet for economic growth. Air pollution is mainly responsible for global warming and climate change .Due to global warming ice glaciers are shrinking and melting. Forests are shrinking, deserts expanding and soil eroding. The depletion of stratospheric ozone layer is depleting and hole in ozone layer that protect us from harmful ultra violet radiation. Extreme high temperature in summer and extreme low temperature and smog in winters, floods in rainy season. These all are indication of climate change. The level of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gases in the atmosphere is increasing at high speed. Nation’s are worried about environmental degradation.

Keywords: environmental degradation, global warming, soil eroding, ultra-Violate radiation

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Authors: Peter K. Galenko, Stefanie Koch, Markus Rettenmayr, Robert Wonneberger, Evgeny V. Kharanzhevskiy, Maria Zamoryanskaya, Vladimir Ankudinov

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We analyze the structure of undercooled melts, crystal growth kinetics and amorphous/crystalline microstructure of rapidly solidifying glass-forming Pd-based and CuZr-based alloys. A dendrite growth model is developed using a combination of the kinetic phase-field model and mesoscopic sharp interface model. The model predicts features of crystallization kinetics in alloys from thermodynamically controlled growth (governed by the Gibbs free energy change on solidification) to the kinetically limited regime (governed by atomic attachment-detachment processes at the solid/liquid interface). Comparing critical undercoolings observed in the crystallization kinetics with experimental data on melt viscosity, atomistic simulation's data on liquid microstructure and theoretically predicted dendrite growth velocity allows us to conclude that the dendrite growth kinetics strongly depends on the cluster structure changes of the melt. The obtained data of theoretical and experimental investigations are used for interpretation of microstructure of samples processed in electro-magnetic levitator on board International Space Station in the frame of the project "MULTIPHAS" (European Space Agency and German Aerospace Center, 50WM1941) and "KINETIKA" (ROSKOSMOS).

Keywords: dendrite, kinetics, model, solidification

Procedia PDF Downloads 112