Search results for: project progress prediction

Authors: Oleg Vlasovets, Fabian Schaipp, Christian L. Mueller

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we conduct a network analysis and predict the sex of 1000 participants based on ”connectome” - pairwise Pearson’s correlation across 436 brain parcels. We solve the non-smooth convex optimization problem, known under the name of Graphical Lasso, where the solution includes a low-rank component. With this solution and machine learning model for a sex prediction, we explain the brain parcels-sex connectivity patterns.

Keywords: network analysis, neuroscience, machine learning, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Y. Gholipour, E. Rezazadeh

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Delay is one of the most serious and common problems of construction project that can affect project delivery unfavorably. This research presents the most important causes of delay in large dam projects based on a survey on some executed dam construction in Iran. In this survey a randomly selected samples of owners, consultants and contractors have been involved. The outcome of this survey revealed that scheduled payments, site management, shop drawing review process, unforeseen ground conditions and contractor experience as the most important factors affecting on delay in dam construction projects.

Keywords: delay, dam construction, project management, Iran

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Authors: Sol Girouard, Zona Kostic

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A home is often the largest and most expensive purchase a person makes. Whether the decision leads to a successful outcome will be determined by a combination of critical factors. In this paper, we propose a method that efficiently handles all the factors in residential real estate and performs predictions given a feature space with high dimensionality while controlling for overfitting. The proposed method was built on gradient descent and boosting algorithms and uses a mixed optimizing technique to improve the prediction power. Usually, a single model cannot handle all the cases thus our approach builds multiple models based on different subsets of the predictors. The algorithm was tested on 3 million homes across the U.S., and the experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach by outperforming techniques currently used in forecasting prices. With everyday changes on the real estate market, our proposed algorithm capitalizes from new events allowing more efficient predictions.

Keywords: real estate prediction, gradient descent, boosting, ensemble methods, active learning, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: V. G. Rifert, V. V. Gorin, V. V. Sereda, V. V. Treputnev

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The analysis of heat transfer design methods in condensing inside plain tubes under existing influence of shear stress is presented in this paper. The existing discrepancy in more than 30-50% between rating heat transfer coefficients and experimental data has been noted. The analysis of existing theoretical and semi-empirical methods of heat transfer prediction is given. The influence of a precise definition concerning boundaries of phase flow (it is especially important in condensing inside horizontal tubes), shear stress (friction coefficient) and heat flux on design of heat transfer is shown. The substantiation of boundary conditions of the values of parameters, influencing accuracy of rated relationships, is given. More correct relationships for heat transfer prediction, which showed good convergence with experiments made by different authors, are substantiated in this work.

Keywords: film condensation, heat transfer, plain tube, shear stress

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Authors: Deepa Vijay, Chellammal Surianarayanan, Gopinath Ganapathy

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Requirements of a software project serve as a guideline for the entire project team which enable the team towards producing the right outcome. As requirements are the key in deciding the success of the project, it should be specified in an unambiguous manner. Also, the requirements should be complete and consistent. It should be interpreted in the same way by the entire software project team as the customer interprets. Specifying requirements in textual manner is common in software development. This leads to poor understanding of the requirements which results in more errors and degraded quality. There are some literatures which focus on semantic way of specifying functional requirement which ensure the consistency and completeness of requirements. Alternately in the work, a method is proposed to map the syntactic requirements with corresponding semantics in the form of ontologies. This improves the understanding of requirements, prevents errors and improves quality.

Keywords: functional requirement, ontology, requirements management, semantics

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Authors: Olusegun Akinsiku, Olukayode Oyediran, Koleola Odusami

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A construction project is usually made up of a variety of stakeholders whose interests may positively or negatively impact on the outcome of the project execution. The variability of project stakeholders is apparent in their cultural differences, professional background and ethics, and differences in ideas. The need for the effectiveness of construction teams has been investigated as this is an important aspect to meeting client’s expectations in the construction industry. This study adopts a cross-sectional descriptive survey with the purpose of identifying the critical success factors (CSFs) associated with the team effectiveness of construction projects stakeholders, their relationship and the effects on construction project performance. The instrument for data collection was a designed questionnaire which was administered to construction professionals in the construction industry in Lagos State, Nigeria using proportionate stratified sampling. The highest ranked identified CSFs include “team trust”, “esprit de corps among members” and “team cohesiveness”. Using factor analysis and considering the effects of team cohesiveness on project performance, the identified CSFs were categorized into three groups namely cognitive attributes, behavior and processes attributes and affective attributes. All the three groups were observed to have a strong correlation with project performance. The findings of this study are useful in helping construction stakeholders benchmark the team effectiveness factors that will guarantee project success.

Keywords: construction, critical success factors, performance, stakeholders, team effectiveness

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Authors: Nalanda Roy

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The project will offer a fresh and critical perspective into the Tokyo Trial judgment led by the Indian Jurist Dr. Radha Binod Pal. The project will focus on the Third World Approach to International Law (TWAIL) methodology to examine the relevance of international law from the post-colonial perspectives. The project will analyze Pal’s dissenting arguments from a new and comparative perspective, apply for work from other disciplines, and create an understanding of the significance of the historic judgment considering its contemporary relevance, and fill in the gaps that exist in the call for global justice.

Keywords: Tokyo trial, third world, judgment, international law

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Authors: Adithya Subramanian, S. Ananthan, T. Prasanth, S. P. Selvabharathi

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This project involves extraction of grapefruit essential oil from grapefruit peels using various oils like castor oil, gingelly oil, olive oil as carrier oils. The main aim of this project is to extract the oil which has numerous medicinal uses. The extraction can be performed by two methods. Project involves extraction of the oil with various carrier oil in a view to reduce the cost of production and the physical properties of the extracted oil are examined.

Keywords: essential oil, carrier oil, medicinal uses, cost of production

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Said Boukais, Ali Kezmane, Kahil Amar, Mohand Hamizi, Hannachi Neceur Eddine

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This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of rectangular reinforced concrete walls with an aspect ratio between one and tow. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood equation for shear and strain compatibility analysis for flexure. Subsequently, nominal ultimate wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate strength. New semi empirical equation are developed using data from tests of 46 walls with the objective of improving the prediction of ultimate strength of walls with the most possible accuracy and for all failure modes.

Keywords: prediction, ultimate strength, reinforced concrete walls, walls, rectangular walls

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Authors: T. Garba, Y. Y. Babanyara, K. G. Ilellah, M. A. Modibbo, T. O. Quddus, M. J. Sani

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After the United Nation Convention on Desertification (UNCD) in 1977 which was preceded by extensive, regional, and local studies, and consultations with numerous scientists, decision-makers, and relevant institutions. Global Plan of Action to Combat Desertification (PACD) was formulated, endorsed by member Countries. The role of implementing PACD was vested with Governments of countries affected by desertification. The Federal Government of Nigeria as a signatory and World Bank funded and implement afforestation project aimed at combating desertification between 1988 and 1999. This research, therefore, applied remote sensing techniques to assess the effectiveness of the project. To achieve that a small portion of about 143,609 hectares was curved out from the project area. Normalized Difference of the Vegetative Index (NDVI) and Land Use Land Cover were derived from Landsat TM 1986, Landsat ETM 1999 and Nigeria Sat 1, 2007 of the project area. The findings show that there was an increase in cultivated area due to the project from 1986 through 1999 and 2007. This is further buttressed by the three NDVI imageries due to their high positive pixel value from 0.04 in 1986 to 0.22 in 1999 and to 0.32 in 2007 These signifies the gradual physical development of Afforestation project in the area. In addition, it was also verified by histograms of changes in vegetation which indicated an increased vegetative cover from 60,192 in 1986, to 102,476 in 1999 and then to 88,343 in 2007. The study concluded that Remote Sensing approach has actually confirmed that the project was indeed successful and effective.

Keywords: afforestation, desertification, landsat, vegetative index, remote sensing

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alnajem, Amit Sharma

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Business Case: Project delivery and enhancing activities' completion in the shortest possible time is critical during execution to proceed with the subsequent phases of Procurement, C & C phases of Contracts to have the required Production facilities/Infrastructure in place to achieve the Company strategic objective of 4.0 MBOPD oil production. SOR (Statement of requirement): Design and Engineering phase of Projects execution takes a long time. It is observed that, in most of the cases, company has crossed the Project Design Submittals review time as per the Contract/Company Standards, resulting into delays in projects completion, and cost impact to the company. Study Scope: Scope of the study covers the process from date of first submission of D & E documents by the contractor to final approval by the controlling team to proceed with the procurement of materials. This scope covers projects handled by the company’s project management teams and includes only the internal review process by the company.

Keywords: business management system, project management, oil and gas, analysis, improvement, design, delays

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Authors: Mona Hejazi, Ali Motie Nasrabadi

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Epilepsy is a persistent neurological disorder that affects more than 50 million people worldwide. Hence, there is a necessity to introduce an efficient prediction model for making a correct diagnosis of the epileptic seizure and accurate prediction of its type. In this study we consider how the Effective Connectivity (EC) patterns obtained from intracranial Electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings reveal information about the dynamics of the epileptic brain and can be used to predict imminent seizures, as this will enable the patients (and caregivers) to take appropriate precautions. We use this definition because we believe that effective connectivity near seizures begin to change, so we can predict seizures according to this feature. Results are reported on the standard Freiburg EEG dataset which contains data from 21 patients suffering from medically intractable focal epilepsy. Six channels of EEG from each patients are considered and effective connectivity using Directed Transfer Function (DTF) and Granger Causality (GC) methods is estimated. We concentrate on effective connectivity standard deviation over time and feature changes in five brain frequency sub-bands (Alpha, Beta, Theta, Delta, and Gamma) are compared. The performance obtained for the proposed scheme in predicting seizures is: average prediction time is 50 minutes before seizure onset, the maximum sensitivity is approximate ~80% and the false positive rate is 0.33 FP/h. DTF method is more acceptable to predict epileptic seizures and generally we can observe that the greater results are in gamma and beta sub-bands. The research of this paper is significantly helpful for clinical applications, especially for the exploitation of online portable devices.

Keywords: effective connectivity, Granger causality, directed transfer function, epilepsy seizure prediction, EEG

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Authors: Doreen Orishaba, Paul Isaac Musasizi, Richard Madanda, Sandy Stevens Tickodri-Togboa

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The world of academia tends to be a very insular place. Consequently, scholars who successfully completed their undergraduate and graduate studies are unpleasantly surprised at how challenging the transition to corporate life can get. This is a global trend even as the students who juggle work with attending some of the most demanding and best graduate programs may not easily adjust to and confirm to the professionalism required for corporate management of the industry. This paper explores the trends in the transition of Kiira EV Project from a predominantly student team to a professional team of a national pride program through mentorship and apprenticeship. The core disciplines within the Kiira EV Project include Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Industrial Design.

Keywords: mentorship, apprenticeship, professional, development

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Levy flight, distributed constraint optimization problem, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence

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Authors: Rehab Abdulmajed, Amr Hamada, Ahmed Elsaid, Hisashi Hayakawa, Ayman Mahrous

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Solar emissions have a high impact on the Earth’s magnetic field, and the prediction of solar events is of high interest. Various techniques have been used in the prediction of solar wind using mathematical models, MHD models, and neural network (NN) models. This study investigates the coronal hole (CH) derived high-speed streams (HSSs) and their correlation to the CH area and create a neural network model to predict the HSSs. Two different algorithms were used to compare different models to find a model that best simulates the HSSs. A dataset of CH synoptic maps through Carrington rotations 1601 to 2185 along with Omni-data set solar wind speed averaged over the Carrington rotations is used, which covers Solar cycles (sc) 21, 22, 23, and most of 24.

Keywords: artificial neural network, coronal hole area, feed-forward neural network models, solar high speed streams

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Authors: Kawalpreet Kaur, Panagiotis Mitropoulos

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The division of the project scope into work packages is the most important step in the preconstruction phase of construction projects. The work division determines the scope and complexity of each bid package, resulting in dependencies between project participants performing these work packages. The coordination between project participants is necessary because of these dependencies. Excessive dependencies between the bid packages create coordination difficulties, leading to delays, added costs, and contractual friction among project participants. However, the literature on construction provides limited knowledge regarding work structuring approaches, issues, and challenges. Manufacturing industry literature provides a systematic approach to defining the project scope into work packages, and the implementation of social network analysis (SNA) in manufacturing is an effective approach to defining and analyzing the divided scope of work at the dependencies level. This paper presents a case study of implementing a similar approach using SNA in construction bid packages. The study uses SNA to analyze the scope of bid packages and determine the dependency between scope elements. The method successfully identifies the bid package with the maximum interaction with other trade contractors and the scope elements that are crucial for project performance. The analysis provided graphical and quantitative information on bid package dependencies. The study can be helpful in performing an analysis to determine the dependencies between bid packages and their scope elements and how these scope elements are critical for project performance. The study illustrates the potential use of SNA as a systematic approach to analyzing bid package dependencies in construction projects, which can guide the division of crucial scope elements to minimize negative impacts on project performance.

Keywords: work structuring, bid packages, work breakdown, project participants

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Authors: Brahim-Fares Zaidi, Malika Boudraa, Sid-Ahmed Selouani

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Our work aims to improve our Automatic Recognition System for Dysarthria Speech (ARSDS) based on the Hidden Models of Markov (HMM) and the Hidden Markov Model Toolkit (HTK) to help people who are sick. With pronunciation problems, we applied two techniques of speech parameterization based on Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC's) and Perceptual Linear Prediction (PLP's) and concatenated them with JITTER and SHIMMER coefficients in order to increase the recognition rate of a dysarthria speech. For our tests, we used the NEMOURS database that represents speakers with dysarthria and normal speakers.

Keywords: hidden Markov model toolkit (HTK), hidden models of Markov (HMM), Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC), perceptual linear prediction (PLP’s)

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Authors: Sergio Zabala-Vargas, Miguel Jiménez-Barrera, Luz VArgas-Sánchez

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In recent years, information related to project management in organizations has been increasing exponentially. Performance data, management statistics, indicator results have forced the collection, analysis, traceability, and dissemination of project managers to be essential. In this sense, there are current trends to facilitate efficient decision-making in emerging technology projects, such as: Machine Learning, Data Analytics, Data Mining, and Big Data. The latter is the most interesting in this project. This research is part of the thematic line Construction methods and project management. Many authors present the relevance that the use of emerging technologies, such as Big Data, has taken in recent years in project management in the construction sector. The main focus is the optimization of time, scope, budget, and in general mitigating risks. This research was developed in the northeastern region of Colombia-South America. The first phase was aimed at diagnosing the use of emerging technologies (Big-Data) in the construction sector. In Colombia, the construction sector represents more than 50% of the productive system, and more than 2 million people participate in this economic segment. The quantitative approach was used. A survey was applied to a sample of 91 companies in the construction sector. Preliminary results indicate that the use of Big Data and other emerging technologies is very low and also that there is interest in modernizing project management. There is evidence of a correlation between the interest in using new data management technologies and the incorporation of Building Information Modeling BIM. The next phase of the research will allow the generation of guidelines and strategies for the incorporation of technological tools in the construction sector in Colombia.

Keywords: big data, building information modeling, tecnology, project manamegent

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Authors: Anu Soikkelii, Laura Sorri

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Finnish national research project, User- and Business-oriented Suburb Renovation Concept (KLIKK), was started in January 2012 and will end in June 2014. The perspective of energy efficiency is emphasised in the project, but also it addresses what improving the energy efficiency of suburban apartment buildings means from the standpoint of architecturally valuable buildings representing different periods. The project will also test the impacts of stricter energy efficiency requirements on renovation projects. The primary goal of the project is to develop a user-oriented, industrial, economic renovation concept for suburban apartment building renovation, extension and construction of additional storeys. The concept will make it possible to change from performance- and cost-based operation to novel service- and user-oriented, site-specifically tailored renovation methods utilizing integrated order and delivery chains.The present project is collaborating with Ministry of the Environment and participating cities in developing a new type of lighter town planning model for suburban renovations and in-fill construction. To support this, the project will simultaneously develop practices for environmental impact assessment tools in renovation and suburban supplementary and in-fill construction.

Keywords: energy efficiency, prefabrication, renovation concept, suburbs, sustainability, user-orientated

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Authors: Duangkamol Thitivesa

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This paper explores the use of project work in a content-based instruction in a Rajabhat University, Thailand. The use of project is to promote kinds of learning expected of student teachers as stated by Thailand Quality Framework: TQF. The kinds of learning are grouped into five domains: Ethical and moral development, knowledge, cognitive skill, interpersonal skills and responsibility, and analytical and communication skills. The content taught in class is used to lead the student teachers to relate their previously-acquired linguistic knowledge to meaningful realizations of the language system in passages of immediate relevance to their professional interests, teaching methods in particular. Two research questions are formulate to guide this study: 1) To what degree are the five domains of learning expected of student teachers after the use of project in a content class?, and 2) What is the academic achievement of the students’ writing skills, as part of the learning domains stated by TQF, against the 70% attainment target after the use of project to enhance the skill? The sample of the study comprised of 38 fourth-year English major students. The data was collected by means of a summative achievement test, student writing works, an observation checklist, and project diary. The scores in the summative achievement test were analyzed by mean score, standard deviation, and t-test. Project diary serves as students’ record of the language acquired during the project. List of structures and vocabulary noted in the diary has shown students’ ability to attend to, recognize, and focus on meaningful patterns of language forms.

Keywords: Thailand quality framework, project Work, writing skill, summative

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Authors: Ashish Kumar, Kaptan Singh, Amit Saxena

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Today, it is believed that crimes have the greatest impact on a person's ability to progress financially and personally. Identifying places where individuals shouldn't go is crucial for preventing crimes and is one of the key considerations. As society and technologies have advanced significantly, so have crimes and the harm they wreak. When there is a concentration of people in one place and changes happen quickly, it is even harder to prevent. Because of this, many crime prevention strategies have been embraced as a component of the development of smart cities in numerous cities. However, crimes can occur anywhere; all that is required is to identify the pattern of their occurrences, which will help to lower the crime rate. In this paper, an analysis related to crime has been done; information related to crimes is collected from all over India that can be accessed from anywhere. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between several factors and India's crime rate. The review has covered information related to every state of India and their associated regions of the period going in between 2001- 2014. However various classes of violations have a marginally unique scope over the years.

Keywords: K-nearest neighbor, random forest, decision tree, pre-processing

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Authors: Sean Bryner S. Rey, Eric Tanjutco

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Modular execution strategies are performed to address the various challenges of any projects and are implemented on each project phase that covers Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication and Construction. It was until the recent years that the intent to surpass mechanical modularization approach were conceptualized to give solution to much greater demands of project components such as site location and adverse weather condition, material sourcing, construction schedule, safety risks and overall plot layout and allocation. The intent of this paper is to introduce the 3rd Generation Modular Execution with an overview of its advantages on project execution and will give emphasis on Engineering, Construction, Operation and Maintenance. Most importantly, the paper will present the key differentiator of 3rd Gen modular execution against other conventional project execution and the merits it bears for the industry.

Keywords: 3rd generation modular, process block, construction, operation & maintenance

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Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

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Detection of incipient abnormal events in production processes is important to improve safety and reliability of manufacturing operations and reduce losses caused by failures. The construction of calibration models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making decisions on when to perform preventive maintenance. This paper presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the statistical analysis of process measurement data. The calibration model is used to predict faulty conditions from historical reference data. This approach utilizes variable selection techniques, and the predictive performance of several prediction methods are evaluated using real data. The results shows that the calibration model based on supervised probabilistic model yielded best performance in this work. By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models, the prediction performance can be improved by excluding non-informative variables from their model building steps.

Keywords: calibration model, monitoring, quality improvement, feature selection

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Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, cone penetrating test, general regression neural network, soil modulus of elasticity

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Authors: M. Holle, M. Roth, M. R. Gürtler, U. Lindemann

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This paper gives insights into the research project "InnoCyFer" (in the form of an outlook) which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology. Enabling the integrated customer individual product design as well as flexible manufacturing of these products are the main objectives of the project. To achieve this, a web-based open innovation-platform containing an integrated Toolkit will be developed. This toolkit enables the active integration of the customer’s creativity and potentials of innovation in the product development process. Furthermore, the project will show the chances and possibilities of customer individualized products by building and examining the continuous process from innovation through the customers to the flexible manufacturing of individual products.

Keywords: customer individual product design, innovation networks, open innovation, open innovation platform, toolkit

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Authors: Sevgi Özlem Bulu, Arif Furkan Mendi, Tolga Erol, İzzet Gökhan Özbilgin

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The rapid progress of technology in today's competitive conditions has also accelerated companies' technology development activities. As a result, companies are paying more attention to R&D studies and are beginning to allocate a larger share to R&D projects. A more systematic, comprehensive, target-oriented implementation of R&D studies is crucial for the company to achieve successful results. As a consequence, Technology Roadmap (TRM) is gaining importance as a management tool. It has critical prospects for achieving medium and long term success as it contains decisions about past business, future plans, technological infrastructure. When studies on TRM are examined, projects to be placed on the roadmap are selected by many different methods. Generally preferred methods are based on multi-criteria decision making methods. Management of selected projects becomes an important point after the selection phase of the projects. At this stage, TRM are used. TRM can be created in many different ways so that each institution can prepare its own Technology Roadmap according to their strategic plan. Depending on the intended use, there can be TRM with different layers at different sizes. In the evaluation phase of the R&D projects and in the creation of the TRM, HAVELSAN, Turkey's largest defense company in the software field, carries out this process with great care and diligence. At the beginning, suggested R&D projects are evaluated by the Technology Management Board (TMB) of HAVELSAN in accordance with the company's resources, objectives, and targets. These projects are presented to the TMB periodically for evaluation within the framework of certain criteria by board members. After the necessary steps have been passed, the approved projects are added to the time-based TRM, which is composed of four layers as market, product, project and technology. The use of a four-layered roadmap provides a clearer understanding and visualization of company strategy and objectives. This study demonstrates the benefits of using TRM, four-layered Technology Roadmapping and the possibilities for the institutions in the defense industry.

Keywords: technology roadmap, research and development project, project selection, research development in defense industry

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

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Authors: Yang Zhou, Heli Sun, Jianbin Huang, Jizhong Zhao, Shaojie Qiao

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Traffic prediction is a fundamental problem in urban environment, facilitating the smart management of various businesses, such as taxi dispatching, bike relocation, and stampede alert. Most earlier methods rely on identifying the intrinsic spatial-temporal correlation to forecast. However, the complex nature of this problem entails a more sophisticated solution that can simultaneously capture the mutual influence of both adjacent and far-flung areas, with the information of time-dimension also incorporated seamlessly. To tackle this difficulty, we propose a new multi-phase architecture, DSTDS (Dual Spatial-Temporal Data Scheme for traffic prediction), that aims to reveal the underlying relationship that determines future traffic trend. First, a graph-based neural network with an attention mechanism is devised to obtain the static features of the road network. Then, a multi-granularity recurrent neural network is built in conjunction with the knowledge from a grid-based model. Subsequently, the preceding output is fed into a spatial-temporal super-resolution module. With this 3-phase structure, we carry out extensive experiments on several real-world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which surpasses several state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: traffic prediction, spatial-temporal, recurrent neural network, dual data scheme

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Authors: Volkmar Nolting

Abstract:

Fatigue crack growth prediction has become an important topic in both engineering and non-destructive evaluation. Crack propagation is influenced by the mechanical properties of the material and is conveniently modelled by the Paris-Erdogan equation. The critical crack size and the total number of load cycles are calculated. From a Larson-Miller plot the maximum operational temperature can for a given stress level be determined so that failure does not occur within a given time interval t. The study is used to determine a reasonable inspection cycle and thus enhances operational safety and reduces costs.

Keywords: fracturemechanics, crack growth prediction, lifetime of a component, structural health monitoring

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