Search results for: multivariate disaggregation rainfall model

Authors: Gebremedhin Kiros, Amba Shetty, Lakshman Nandagiri

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Soil erosion is a major threat to the sustainability of land and water resources in the catchment and there is a need to identify critical areas of erosion so that suitable conservation measures may be adopted. The present study was taken up to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion and daily sediment yield in Geba catchment (5137 km2) located in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Geba catchment using data pertaining to rainfall, climate, soils, topography and land use/land cover (LU/LC) for the historical period 2000-2013. LU/LC distribution in the catchment was characterized using LANDSAT satellite imagery and the GIS-based ArcSWAT version of the model. The model was calibrated and validated using sediment concentration measurements made at the catchment outlet. The catchment was divided into 13 sub-basins and based on estimated soil erosion, these were prioritized on the basis of susceptibility to soil erosion. Model results indicated that the average sediment yield estimated of the catchment was 12.23 tons/ha/yr. The generated soil loss map indicated that a large portion of the catchment has high erosion rates resulting in significantly large sediment yield at the outlet. Steep and unstable terrain, the occurrence of highly erodible soils and low vegetation cover appeared to favor high soil erosion. Results obtained from this study prove useful in adopting in targeted soil and water conservation measures and promote sustainable management of natural resources in the Geba and similar catchments in the region.

Keywords: Ethiopia, Geba catchment, MUSLE, sediment yield, SWAT Model

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

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Authors: Zulkifli Yusop

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The severity of December 2014 flood on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia has raised concern over the adequacy of existing land use practices and policies. This article assesses flood responses to selective logging, plantation establishment (oil palm and rubber) and their subsequent management regimes. The hydrological impacts were evaluated on two levels: on-site (mostly in the upstream) and off-site to reflect the cumulative impact at downstream. Results of experimental catchment studies suggest that on-site impact of flood could be kept to a minimum when selecting logging strictly adhere to the existing guidelines. However, increases in flood potential and sedimentation rate were observed with logging intensity and slope steepness. Forest conversion to plantation show the highest impacts. Except on the heavily compacted surfaces, the ground revegetation is usually rapid within two years upon the cessation of the logging operation. The hydrological impacts of plantation opening and replanting could be significantly reduced once the cover crop has fully established which normally takes between three to six months after sowing. However, as oil palms become taller and the canopy gets closer, the cover crop tends to die off due to light competition, and its protecting function gradually diminishes. The exposed soil is further compacted by harvesting machinery which subsequently leads to greater overland flow and erosion rates. As such, the hydrological properties of matured oil palm plantations are generally poorer than in young plantation. In hilly area, the undergrowth in rubber plantation is usually denser compared to under oil palm. The soil under rubber trees is also less compacted as latex collection is done manually. By considering the cumulative effects of land-use over space and time, selective logging seems to pose the least impact on flood potential, followed by planting rubber for latex, oil palm and Latex Timber Clone (LTC). The cumulative hydrological impact of LTC plantation is the most severe because of its shortest replanting rotation (12 to 15 years) compared to oil palm (25 years) and rubber for latex (35 years). Furthermore, the areas gazetted for LTC are mostly located on steeper slopes which are more susceptible to landslide and erosion. Forest has limited capability to store excess rainfall and is only effective in attenuating regular floods. Once the hydrologic storage is exceeded, the excess rainfall will appear as flood water. Therefore, for big floods, rainfall regime has a much bigger influence than land use.

Keywords: selective logging, plantation, extreme rainfall, debris flow

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh River, Log Pearson Type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares

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Authors: Umar Farouk Abbas, Danjuma Mustapha, Hamisu Idi

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It is now a known fact that quality is an important issue in manufacturing industries. A control chart is an integrated and powerful tool in statistical process control (SPC). The mean µ and standard deviation σ parameters are estimated. In general, the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) and multivariate cumulative sum (MCUSUM) are used in the detection of small shifts in joint monitoring of several correlated variables; the charts used information from past data which makes them sensitive to small shifts. The aim of the paper is to compare the performance of Shewhart xbar, MEWMA, and MCUSUM control charts in terms of their false rates when parameters are estimated with autocorrelation. A simulation was conducted in R software to generate the average run length (ARL) values of each of the charts. After the analysis, the results show that a comparison of the false alarm rates of the charts shows that MEWMA chart has lower false alarm rates than the MCUSUM chart at various levels of parameter estimated to the number of ARL0 (in control) values. Also noticed was that the sample size has an advert effect on the false alarm of the control charts.

Keywords: average run length, MCUSUM chart, MEWMA chart, false alarm rate, parameter estimation, simulation

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Melese Wondatir

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Flooding ranks among the most destructive natural disasters, impacting millions of individuals globally and resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental repercussions. This study's objective was to create a comprehensive model that assesses the Nile River basin's susceptibility to flood damage and improves existing flood risk management strategies. Authorities responsible for enacting policies and implementing measures may benefit from this research to acquire essential information about the flood, including its scope and susceptible areas. The identification of severe flood damage locations and efficient mitigation techniques were made possible by the use of geospatial data. Slope, elevation, distance from the river, drainage density, topographic witness index, rainfall intensity, distance from road, NDVI, soil type, and land use type were all used throughout the study to determine the vulnerability of flood damage. Ranking elements according to their significance in predicting flood damage risk was done using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial approaches. The analysis finds that the most important parameters determining the region's vulnerability are distance from the river, topographic witness index, rainfall, and elevation, respectively. The consistency ratio (CR) value obtained in this case is 0.000866 (<0.1), which signifies the acceptance of the derived weights. Furthermore, 10.84m2, 83331.14m2, 476987.15m2, 24247.29m2, and 15.83m2 of the region show varying degrees of vulnerability to flooding—very low, low, medium, high, and very high, respectively. Due to their close proximity to the river, the northern-western regions of the Nile River basin—especially those that are close to Sudanese cities like Khartoum—are more vulnerable to flood damage, according to the research findings. Furthermore, the AUC ROC curve demonstrates that the categorized vulnerability map achieves an accuracy rate of 91.0% based on 117 sample points. By putting into practice strategies to address the topographic witness index, rainfall patterns, elevation fluctuations, and distance from the river, vulnerable settlements in the area can be protected, and the impact of future flood occurrences can be greatly reduced. Furthermore, the research findings highlight the urgent requirement for infrastructure development and effective flood management strategies in the northern and western regions of the Nile River basin, particularly in proximity to major towns such as Khartoum. Overall, the study recommends prioritizing high-risk locations and developing a complete flood risk management plan based on the vulnerability map.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Blue Nile Basin, geospatial techniques, flood vulnerability, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Hemant Kumar

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Brahmaputra River is known according to the Hindu mythology the son of the Lord Brahma. According to this name, the river Brahmaputra creates mass destruction during the monsoon season in Assam, India. It is a state situated in North-East part of India. This is one of the essential states out of the seven countries of eastern India, where almost all entire Brahmaputra flow carried out. The other states carry their tributaries. In the present case study, the spatial analysis performed in this specific case the number of MODIS data are acquired. In the method of detecting the change, the spray content was found during heavy rainfall and in the flooded monsoon season. By this method, particularly the analysis over the Brahmaputra outflow determines the flooded season. The charged particle-associated in aerosol content genuinely verifies the heavy water content below the ground surface, which is validated by trend analysis through rainfall spectrum data. This is confirmed by in-situ sampled view data from a different position of Brahmaputra River. Further, a Hyperion Hyperspectral 30 m resolution data were used to scan the sediment deposits, which is also confirmed by in-situ sampled view data from a different position.

Keywords: aerosol, change detection, spatial analysis, trend analysis

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Authors: Edda E. Falcone, Cinzia Federico, Sergio Bellomo, Lorenzo Brusca, Manfredi Longo, Walter D’Alessandro

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Although trace metals are an essential element for living beings, they can become toxic at high concentrations. Their potential toxicity is related not only to the total content in the environment but mostly upon their bioavailability. Volcanoes are important natural metal emitters and they can deeply affect the quality of air, water and soils, as well as the human health. Trace metals tend to accumulate in the tissues of living organisms, depending on the metal contents in food, air and water and on the exposure time. Birds are considered as bioindicators of interest, because their feathers directly reflects the metals uptake from the blood. Birds are exposed to the atmospheric pollution through the contact with rainfall, dust, and aerosol, and they accumulate metals over the whole life cycle. We report on the first data combining the rainfall metal content in three different areas of Mt Etna, variably fumigated by the volcanic plume, and the metal contents in the feathers of pigeons, collected in the same areas. Rainfall samples were collected from three rain gauges placed at different elevation on the Eastern flank of the volcano, the most exposed to airborne plume, filtered, treated with HNO₃ Suprapur-grade and analyzed for Fe, Cr, Co, Ni, Se, Zn, Cu, Sr, Ba, Cd and As by ICP-MS technique, and major ions by ion chromatography. Feathers were collected from single individuals, in the same areas where the rain gauges were installed. Additionally, some samples were collected in an urban area, poorly interested by the volcanic plume. The samples were rinsed in MilliQ water and acetone, dried at 50°C until constant weight and digested in a mixture of 2:1 HNO₃ (65%) - H₂O₂ (30%) Suprapur-grade for 25-50 mg of sample, in a bath at near-to-boiling temperature. The solutions were diluted up to 20 ml prior to be analyzed by ICP-MS. The rainfall samples most contaminated by the plume were collected at close distance from the summit craters (less than 6 km), and show lower pH values and higher concentrations for all analyzed metals relative to those from the sites at lower elevation. Analyzed samples are enriched in both metals directly emitted by the volcanic plume and transported by acidic gases (SO₂, HCl, HF), and metals leached from the airborne volcanic ash. Feathers show different patterns in the different sites related to the exposure to natural or anthropogenic pollutants. They show abundance ratios similar to rainfall for lithophile elements (Ba, Sr), whereas are enriched in Zn and Se, known for their antioxidant properties, probably as adaptive response to oxidative stress induced by toxic metal exposure. The pigeons revealed a clear heterogeneity of metal uptake in the different parts of the volcano, as an effect of volcanic plume impact. Additionally, some physiological processes can modify the fate of some metals after uptake and this offer some insights for translational studies.

Keywords: bioindicators, environmental pollution, feathers, trace metals, volcanic plume

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Authors: Ali Rashash Alzahrani, Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Data on various aspects of education are collected at the institutional and government level regularly. In Australia, for example, students at various levels of schooling undertake examinations in numeracy and literacy as part of NAPLAN testing, enabling longitudinal assessment of such data as well as comparisons between schools and states within Australia. Another source of educational data collected internationally is via the PISA study which collects data from several countries when students are approximately 15 years of age and enables comparisons in the performance of science, mathematics and English between countries as well as ranking of countries based on performance in these standardised tests. As well as student and school outcomes based on the tests taken as part of the PISA study, there is a wealth of other data collected in the study including parental demographics data and data related to teaching strategies used by educators. Overall, an abundance of educational data is available which has the potential to be used to help improve educational attainment and teaching of content in order to improve learning outcomes. A multivariate assessment of such data enables multiple variables to be considered simultaneously and will be used in the present study to help develop profiles of students based on performance in mathematics using data obtained from the PISA study.

Keywords: cluster analysis, education, mathematics, profiles

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Authors: Seema Paul, Jesper Oppelstrup, Roger Thunvik, Vladimir Cvetkovic

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Lake Victoria is the second largest fresh water body in the world, located in East Africa with a catchment area of 250,000 km², of which 68,800 km² is the actual lake surface. The hydrodynamic processes of the shallow (40–80 m deep) water system are unique due to its location at the equator, which makes Coriolis effects weak. The paper describes a St.Venant shallow water model of Lake Victoria developed in COMSOL Multiphysics software, a general purpose finite element tool for solving partial differential equations. Depth soundings taken in smaller parts of the lake were combined with recent more extensive data to resolve the discrepancies of the lake shore coordinates. The topography model must have continuous gradients, and Delaunay triangulation with Gaussian smoothing was used to produce the lake depth model. The model shows large-scale flow patterns, passive tracer concentration and water level variations in response to river and tracer inflow, rain and evaporation, and wind stress. Actual data of precipitation, evaporation, in- and outflows were applied in a fifty-year simulation model. It should be noted that the water balance is dominated by rain and evaporation and model simulations are validated by Matlab and COMSOL. The model conserves water volume, the celerity gradients are very small, and the volume flow is very slow and irrotational except at river mouths. Numerical experiments show that the single outflow can be modelled by a simple linear control law responding only to mean water level, except for a few instances. Experiments with tracer input in rivers show very slow dispersion of the tracer, a result of the slow mean velocities, in turn, caused by the near-balance of rain with evaporation. The numerical and hydrodynamical model can evaluate the effects of wind stress which is exerted by the wind on the lake surface that will impact on lake water level. Also, model can evaluate the effects of the expected climate change, as manifest in changes to rainfall over the catchment area of Lake Victoria in the future.

Keywords: bathymetry, lake flow and steady state analysis, water level validation and concentration, wind stress

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Authors: Li Yongyi

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In order to explore the distribution of geological disasters within the expressway area of Shaanxi Province, the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory is applied based on the geographic information system technology platform, and the ground elevation, rainfall, vegetation coverage and other indicators are selected for analysis, and the expressway area is sensitive Sexual evaluation. The results show that the highway area disasters in Shaanxi Province are mainly distributed in the southern mountainous areas and are dominated by landslides; the disaster area ratio basically increases with the increase in ground elevation, surface slope, surface undulation, rainfall, and vegetation coverage. The increase in the distance from the river shows a decreasing trend; after grading the disaster sensitivity within 5km of the expressway, the extremely sensitive area, the highly sensitive area, the medium sensitive area, the low sensitive area, and the extremely low sensitive area respectively account for 8.17%、15.80%、22.99%、26.22%、26.82%. Highly sensitive road areas are mainly distributed in southern Shaanxi.

Keywords: highway engineering, sensitivity, analytic hierarchy process, geological hazard, road area

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Authors: Pongsatorn Tantrabundit, Lersak Phothong, Ong-art Chanprasitchai

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Due to the emergence of the Internet, it has extended the traditional Word-of-Mouth (WOM) to a new form called “Electronic Word-of-Mouth (eWOM).” Unlike traditional WOM, eWOM is able to present information in various ways by applying different components. Each eWOM component generates different effects on online consumer behavior. This research investigates the effects of Webcare (responding message) from product/ service providers on negative eWOM by applying two types of products (search and experience). The proposed conceptual model was developed based on the combination of the stages in consumer decision-making process, theory of reasoned action (TRA), theory of planned behavior (TPB), the technology acceptance model (TAM), the information integration theory and the elaboration likelihood model. The methodology techniques used in this study included multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and multiple regression analysis. The results suggest that Webcare does slightly increase Thai online consumer’s perceptions on perceived eWOM trustworthiness, information diagnosticity and quality. For negative eWOM, we also found that perceived eWOM Trustworthiness, perceived eWOM diagnosticity and quality have a positive relationship with eWOM influence whereas perceived valence has a negative relationship with eWOM influence in Thai online consumers.

Keywords: consumer behavior, electronic word-of-mouth, online review, online word-of-mouth, Thai online consumer, webcare

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Authors: Vineet Agrawal, Deepanjali S., Medha R., Subitha L.

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Background. Hospital malnutrition is a highly prevalent issue and is known to increase the morbidity, mortality, length of hospital stay, and cost of care. In India, studies on hospital malnutrition have been restricted to ICU, post-surgical, and cancer patients. We designed this study to assess the impact of hospital malnutrition on 30-day post-discharge and in-hospital mortality in patients admitted in the general medicine department, irrespective of diagnosis. Methodology. All patients aged above 18 years admitted in the medicine wards, excluding medico-legal cases, were enrolled in the study. Nutritional assessment was done within 72 h of admission, using Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), which classifies patients into three categories: Severely malnourished, Mildly/moderately malnourished, and Normal/well-nourished. Anthropometric measurements like Body Mass Index (BMI), Triceps skin-fold thickness (TSF), and Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) were also performed. Patients were followed-up during hospital stay and 30 days after discharge through telephonic interview, and their final diagnosis, comorbidities, and cause of death were noted. Multivariate logistic regression and cox regression model were used to determine if the nutritional status at admission independently impacted mortality at one month. Results. The prevalence of malnourishment by SGA in our study was 67.3% among 395 hospitalized patients, of which 155 patients (39.2%) were moderately malnourished, and 111 (28.1%) were severely malnourished. Of 395 patients, 61 patients (15.4%) expired, of which 30 died in the hospital, and 31 died within 1 month of discharge from hospital. On univariate analysis, malnourished patients had significantly higher morality (24.3% in 111 Cat C patients) than well-nourished patients (10.1% in 129 Cat A patients), with OR 9.17, p-value 0.007. On multivariate logistic regression, age and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were independently associated with mortality. Higher CCI indicates higher burden of comorbidities on admission, and the CCI in the expired patient group (mean=4.38) was significantly higher than that of the alive cohort (mean=2.85). Though malnutrition significantly contributed to higher mortality on univariate analysis, it was not an independent predictor of outcome on multivariate logistic regression. Length of hospitalisation was also longer in the malnourished group (mean= 9.4 d) compared to the well-nourished group (mean= 8.03 d) with a trend towards significance (p=0.061). None of the anthropometric measurements like BMI, MUAC, or TSF showed any association with mortality or length of hospitalisation. Inference. The results of our study highlight the issue of hospital malnutrition in medicine wards and reiterate that malnutrition contributes significantly to patient outcomes. We found that SGA performs better than anthropometric measurements in assessing under-nutrition. We are of the opinion that the heterogeneity of the study population by diagnosis was probably the primary reason why malnutrition by SGA was not found to be an independent risk factor for mortality. Strategies to identify high-risk patients at admission and treat malnutrition in the hospital and post-discharge are needed.

Keywords: hospitalization outcome, length of hospital stay, mortality, malnutrition, subjective global assessment (SGA)

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Authors: Mohammed Kafaji

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This paper aims to investigate the influence of quality of education and quality of research, provided by local educational institutions, on the adoption of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in managing business operations for companies in Saudi market. A model was developed and tested using data collected from 138 CEO’s of foreign companies in diverse business sectors. The data is analysed and managed using multivariate approaches through standard statistical packages. The results showed that educational quality has little contribution to the ICT adoption while research quality seems to play a more prominent role. These results are analysed in terms of business environment and market constraints and further extended to the perceived effectiveness of applied pedagogical approaches in schools and universities.

Keywords: quality of education, quality of research, mediation, domestic competition, ICT adoption

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Authors: Jennifer de Jesus, Ares Baron Talusan, Steven Valerio

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This paper aims to conduct an evaluation of the drainage system in a specific village in Apalit, Pampanga using the geographic information system to easily identify inadequate drainage lines that needs rehabilitation to aid in flooding problem in the area. The researchers will be utilizing two methods and software to be able to strategically assess each drainage line in the village– the two methods were the rational method and the Manning's Formula for Open Channel Flow and compared it to each other, and the software to be used was Google Earth Pro by 2020 Google LLC. The results must satisfy the statement QManning > QRational to be able to see if the specific line and section is adequate; otherwise, it is inadequate; dimensions needed to be recomputed until it became adequate. The use of the software is the visualization of data collected from the computations to clearly see in which areas the drainage lines were adequate or not. The researchers were then able to conclude that the drainage system should be considered inadequate, seeing as most of the lines are unable to accommodate certain intensities of rainfall. The researchers have also concluded that line rehabilitation is a must to proceed.

Keywords: strategic evaluation, drainage system, as-built plans, inadequacy, rainfall intensity-duration-frequency data, rational method, manning’s equation for open channel flow

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Authors: Le Linh, Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Le Hieu Giang

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In this work, the IMC-PID controller cascaded filter based on Internal Model Control (IMC) scheme is systematically proposed for the simplified decoupling control system. The simplified decoupling is firstly introduced for multivariable processes by using coefficient matching to obtain a stable, proper, and causal simplified decoupler. Accordingly, transfer functions of decoupled apparent processes can be expressed as a set of n equivalent independent processes and then derived as a ratio of the original open-loop transfer function to the diagonal element of the dynamic relative gain array. The IMC-PID controller in series with filter is then directly employed to enhance the overall performance of the decoupling control system while avoiding difficulties arising from properties inherent to simplified decoupling. Some simulation studies are considered to demonstrate the simplicity and effectiveness of the proposed method. Simulations were conducted by tuning various controllers of the multivariate processes with multiple time delays. The results indicate that the proposed method consistently performs well with fast and well-balanced closed-loop time responses.

Keywords: coefficient matching method, internal model control (IMC) scheme, PID controller cascaded filter, simplified decoupler

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Authors: Yue Huang, Yiheng Feng

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Due to the global pressure on climate and energy, many countries are vigorously promoting electric vehicles and building charging (public) charging facilities. Faced with the supply-demand gap of existing electric vehicle charging stations and unreasonable space usage in China, this paper takes the central city of Nanjing as an example, establishes a site selection model through multivariate data integration, conducts multiple linear regression SPSS analysis, gives quantitative site selection results, and provides optimization models and suggestions for charging station layout planning.

Keywords: electric vehicle, charging station, allocation optimization, urban mobility, urban infrastructure, nanjing

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Authors: Chang Liang, Weizhi Gong, Yan Zhang

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Purpose: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant tumor with a high mortality rate and poor prognosis worldwide. Murine double minute 2 (MDM2) regulates the tumor suppressor p53, increasing cancer risk and accelerating tumor progression. Speckle-type POX virus and zinc finger protein (SPOP), a key of subunit of Cullin-Ring E3 ligase, inhibits tumor genesis and progression by the ubiquitination of its downstream substrates. This study aimed to clarify whether SPOP and MDM2 are mutually regulated in HCC and the correlation between SPOP and MDM2 and the prognosis of HCC patients. Methods: First, the expression of SPOP and MDM2 in HCC tissues were detected by TCGA database. Then, 53 paired samples of HCC tumor and adjacent tissues were collected to evaluate the expression of SPOP and MDM2 using immunohistochemistry. Chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test were used to analyze the relationship between clinicopathological features and the expression levels of SPOP and MDM2. In addition, Kaplan‒Meier curve analysis and log-rank test were used to investigate the effects of SPOP and MDM2 on the survival of HCC patients. Last, the Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model analyzed whether the different expression levels of SPOP and MDM2 were independent risk factors for the prognosis of HCC patients. Results: Bioinformatics analysis revealed the low expression of SPOP and high expression of MDM2 were related to worse prognosis of HCC patients. The relationship between the expression of SPOP and MDM2 and tumor stem-like features showed an opposite trend. The immunohistochemistry showed the expression of SPOP protein was significantly downregulated while MDM2 protein significantly upregulated in HCC tissue compared to that in para-cancerous tissue. Tumors with low SPOP expression were related to worse T stage and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, but tumors with high MDM2 expression were related to worse T stage, M stage, and BCLC stage. Kaplan–Meier curves showed HCC patients with high SPOP expression and low MDM2 expression had better survival than those with low SPOP expression and high MDM2 expression (P < 0.05). A multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model confirmed that a high MDM2 expression level was an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in HCC patients (P <0.05). Conclusion: The expression of SPOP protein was significantly downregulated, while the expression of MDM2 significantly upregulated in HCC. The low expression of SPOP and high expression. of MDM2 were associated with malignant progression and poor prognosis of HCC patients, indicating a potential therapeutic target for HCC patients.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, murine double minute 2, speckle-type POX virus and zinc finger protein, ubiquitination

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Authors: M. Jonathan D. Morales, R. Ramón Silva

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The purpose of this project is to carry out an analysis and determine the profile of actual lean manufacturing processes in the Metropolitan Area of Bucaramanga. Through the analysis of qualitative and quantitative variables it was possible to establish how these manufacturers develop production practices that ensure their competitiveness and productivity in the market. In this study, a random sample of metallurgic and wrought iron companies was applied, following which a quantitative focus and analysis was used to formulate a qualitative methodology for measuring the level of lean manufacturing procedures in the industry. A qualitative evaluation was also carried out through a multivariate analysis using the Numerical Taxonomy System (NTSYS) program which should allow for the determination of Lean Manufacturing profiles. Through the results it was possible to observe how the companies in the sector are doing with respect to Lean Manufacturing Practices, as well as identify the level of management that these companies practice with respect to this topic. In addition, it was possible to ascertain that there is no one dominant profile in the sector when it comes to Lean Manufacturing. It was established that the companies in the metallurgic and wrought iron industry show low levels of Lean Manufacturing implementation. Each one carries out diverse actions that are insufficient to consolidate a sectoral strategy for developing a competitive advantage which enables them to tie together a production strategy.

Keywords: production line management, metallurgic industry, lean manufacturing, productivity

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Authors: L. Rashidian, M. Rajabali

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Climate changes have unpredictable and costly effects on water resources of various basins. The impact of atmospheric phenomena on human life and the environment is so significant that only knowledge of management can reduce its consequences. In this study, using LARS.WG model and down scaling of general circulation climate model HADCM-3 and according to the IPCC scenarios, including series A1b, A2 and B1, we simulated data from 2010 to 2040 in order to using them for long term forecasting of climate parameters of the Caspian Sea and its impact on sea level. Our research involves collecting data on monthly precipitation amounts, minimum and maximum temperature and daily sunshine hours, from meteorological organization for Caspian Sea coastal station such as Gorgan, Ramsar, Rasht, Anzali, Astara and Ghaemshahr since their establishment until 2010. Considering the fact that the fluctuation range of water level in the Caspian Sea has various ups and downs in different times, there is an increase in minimum and maximum temperature for all the mentioned scenarios, which will last until 2040. Overall, the amount of rainfall in cities bordering the Caspian Sea was studied based on the three scenarios, which shows an increase in the amount. However, there will be a decrease in water level of the Caspian Sea till 2040.

Keywords: IPCC, climate change, atmospheric circulation, Caspian Sea, HADCM3, sea level

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Authors: Ali Reza Vaezi, Naser Fakori Ivand, Fereshteh Azarifam

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Interrill erosion is the detachment and transfer of soil particles between the rills due to the impact of raindrops and the shear stress of shallow surface runoff. This erosion can be affected by some soil properties such as texture, amount of organic matter and stability of soil aggregates. Information on the temporal variation of interrill erosion during a rainfall event and the effect soil properties have on it can help in understanding the process of runoff production and soil loss between the rills in hillslopes. The importance of this study is especially grate in semi-arid regions, where the soil is weakly aggregated and vegetation cover is mostly poor. Therefore, this research was conducted to investigate the temporal variation of surface flow and interrill erosion and the effect of soil properties on it in some semi-arid soils. A field experiment was done in eight different soil textures under simulated rainfalls with uniform intensity. A total of twenty four plots were installed for eight study soils with three replicates in the form of a random complete block design along the land. The plots were 1.2 m (length) × 1 m (width) in dimensions which designed with a distance of 3 m from each other across the slope. Then, soil samples were purred into the plots. The plots were surrounded by a galvanized sheet, and runoff and soil erosion equipment were placed at their outlets. Rainfall simulation experiments were done using a designed portable simulator with an intensity of 60 mm per hour for 60 minutes. A plastic cover was used around the rainfall simulator frame to prevent the impact of the wind on the free fall of water drops. Runoff production and soil loss were measured during 1 hour time with 5-min intervals. In order to study soil properties, such as particle size distribution, aggregate stability, bulk density, ESP and Ks were determined in the laboratory. Correlation and regression analysis was done to determine the effect of soil properties on runoff and interrill erosion. Results indicated that the study soils have lower booth organic matter content and aggregate stability. The soils, except for coarse textured textures, are calcareous and with relatively higher exchangeable sodium percentages (ESP). Runoff production and soil loss didn’t occur in sand, which was associated with higher infiltration and drainage rates. In other study soils, interrill erosion occurred simultaneously with the generation of runoff. A strong relationship was found between interrill erosion and surface runoff (R2 = 0.75, p< 0.01). The correlation analysis showed that surface runoff was significantly affected by some soil properties consisting of sand, silt, clay, bulk density, gravel, hydraulic conductivity (Ks), lime (calcium carbonate), and ESP. The soils with lower Ks such as fine-textured soils, produced higher surface runoff and more interrill erosion. In the soils, Surface runoff production temporally increased during rainfall and finally reached a peak after about 25-35 min. Time to peak was very short (30 min) in fine-textured soils, especially clay, which was related to their lower infiltration rate.

Keywords: erosion plot, rainfall simulator, soil properties, surface flow

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Authors: Filiz Ersoz, Taner Ersoz, Tugrul Bayraktar

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Renewable energy is referred to as "clean energy" and common popular support for the use of renewable energy (RE) is to provide electricity with zero carbon dioxide emissions. This study provides useful insight into the European Union (EU) RE, especially, into electricity generation obtained from renewables, and their targets. The objective of this study is to identify groups of European countries, using multivariate statistical analysis and selected indicators. The hierarchical clustering method is used to decide the number of clusters for EU countries. The conducted statistical hierarchical cluster analysis is based on the Ward’s clustering method and squared Euclidean distances. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified eight distinct clusters of European countries. Then, non-hierarchical clustering (k-means) method was applied. Discriminant analysis was used to determine the validity of the results with data normalized by Z score transformation. To explore the relationship between the selected indicators, correlation coefficients were computed. The results of the study reveal the current situation of RE in European Union Member States.

Keywords: share of electricity generation, k-means clustering, discriminant, CO2 emission

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Authors: Anusha Vaddiraj Pallapu

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Measuring urban sustainable development is at the forefront in contributing to overall sustainability, and it refers to attaining social equity, environmental protection and minimizing the impacts of urbanization. Assessing performance of urban issues ranging from larger consumption of natural resources by humans in terms of lifestyle to creating a polluted nearby environment, social and even economic dimensions of sustainability major issues observed such as water quality, transportation, management of solid waste and traffic pollution. However, relying on the framework of the project to do the goals of sustainable development or minimization of urban impacts through management practices is not enough to deal with the present urban issues. The aim of the sustainability is to know how severely the resources are depleted because of human consumption and how issues are characterized. The paper aims to assign benchmarks for the selected sustainability indicators for research, and analysis is done through multivariate analysis in Indian context a case of Nagpur city to identify the play role of each urban issues in the overall sustainability. The main objectives of this paper are to examine the indicators over by time basis on various scenarios and how benchmarking is used, what and which categories of values should be considered as the performance of indicators function.

Keywords: environmental sustainability indicators, principal component analysis, urban sustainability, urban clusters, benchmarking

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Amir Hedjripour

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The required dewatering configuration for a contaminated sediment dam is discussed to meet no-spill criteria for a defined Average Recurrence Interval (ARI). There is an option for the sediment dam to pump the contaminated water to another storage facility before its capacity is exceeded. The system is subjected to a range of storm durations belonging to the design ARI with concurrent dewatering to the other storage facility. The model is set up in 1-minute time intervals and temporal patterns of storm events are used to de-segregate the total storm depth into partial durations. By running the model for selected storm durations, the maximum water volume in the dam is recorded as the critical volume, which indicates the required storage capacity for that storm duration. Runoff from upstream catchment and the direct rainfall over the dam open area are calculated by taking into account the time of concentration for the catchment. Total 99 different storm durations from 5 minutes to 72 hours were modelled together with five dewatering scenarios from 50 l/s to 500 l/s. The optimised dam/pump configuration is selected by plotting critical points for all cases and storage-dewatering envelopes. A simple economic analysis is also presented in the paper using Present-Value (PV) analysis to assist with the financial evaluation of each configuration and selection of the best alternative.

Keywords: contaminated water, optimisation, pump, sediment dam

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Authors: Taner Ersoz, Filiz Ersoz

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This study was designed enable application of multivariate technique in the interpretation of categorical data for measuring health care services satisfaction in Turkey. The data was collected from a total of 17726 respondents. The establishment of the sample group and collection of the data were carried out by a joint team from The Ministry of Health and Turkish Statistical Institute (Turk Stat) of Turkey. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used on the data of 2882 respondents who answered the questionnaire in full. The multiple correspondence analysis indicated that, in the evaluation of health services females, public employees, younger and more highly educated individuals were more concerned and complainant than males, private sector employees, older and less educated individuals. Overall 53 % of the respondents were pleased with the improvements in health care services in the past three years. This study demonstrates the public consciousness in health services and health care satisfaction in Turkey. It was found that most the respondents were pleased with the improvements in health care services over the past three years. Awareness of health service quality increases with education levels. Older individuals and males would appear to have lower expectancies in health services.

Keywords: multiple correspondence analysis, multivariate categorical data, health care services, health satisfaction survey

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Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani

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Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.

Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton

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Authors: Mohamed Izzharif Abdul Halim, Niamh Nic Daeid

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Determining the source of pen inks used on a variety of documents is impartial for forensic document examiners. The examination of inks is often performed to differentiate between inks in order to evaluate the authenticity of a document. A ballpoint pen ink consists of synthetic dyes in (acidic and/or basic), pigments (organic and/or inorganic) and a range of additives. Inks of similar color may consist of different composition and are frequently the subjects of forensic examinations. This study emphasizes on blue ballpoint pen inks available in the market because it is reported that approximately 80% of questioned documents analysis involving ballpoint pen ink. Analytical techniques such as thin layer chromatography, high-performance liquid chromatography, UV-vis spectroscopy, luminescence spectroscopy and infrared spectroscopy have been used in the analysis of ink samples. In this study, application of Diamond Attenuated Total Reflectance (ATR) FTIR is straightforward but preferable in forensic science as it offers no sample preparation and minimal analysis time. The data obtained from these techniques were further analyzed using multivariate chemometric methods which enable extraction of more information based on the similarities and differences among samples in a dataset. It was indicated that some pens from the same manufactures can be similar in composition, however, discrete types can be significantly different.

Keywords: ATR FTIR, ballpoint, multivariate chemometric, PCA

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Jude A. Mbanasor, Chigozirim N. Onwusiribe

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The enigma climate change is no longer an illusion but a reality. In the recent years, the Nigeria climate has changed and the changes are shown by the changing patterns of rainfall, the sunshine, increasing level carbon and nitrous emission as well as deforestation. This study analyzed the behavioural response of bee keepers to variations in the climate and the adaptation techniques developed in response to the climate variation. Beekeeping is a viable economic activity for the alleviation of poverty as the products include honey, wax, pollen, propolis, royal jelly, venom, queens, bees and their larvae and are all marketable. The study adopted the multistage sampling technique to select 120 beekeepers from the five states of Southeast Nigeria. Well-structured questionnaires and focus group discussions were adopted to collect the required data. Statistical tools like the Principal component analysis, data envelopment models, graphs, and charts were used for the data analysis. Changing patterns of rainfall and sunshine with the increasing rate of deforestation had a negative effect on the habitat of the bees. The bee keepers have adopted the Kenya Top bar and Langstroth hives and they establish the bee hives on fallow farmland close to the cultivated communal farms with more flowering crops.

Keywords: climate, farmer, response, smart

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Jeong Hong Kim, Ju Wan Kang

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Objective: Histamine skin prick testing is most commonly used to diagnose immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated allergic diseases, and histamine reactivity is used as a standardized positive control in the interpretation of a skin prick test. However, reactivity to histamine differs among individuals for reasons that are poorly understood. The present study aimed to evaluate the potential association between body mass index (BMI) and histamine skin reactivity in children. Methods: A total of 451 children (246 boys, 205 girls) aged 7–8 years were enrolled in this study. The skin prick test was performed with 26 aeroallergens commonly found in Korea. Other information was collected, including sex, age, BMI, parental allergy history, and parental smoking status. Multivariate analysis was used to confirm the association between histamine skin reactivity and BMI. Results: The histamine wheal size was revealed to be associated with BMI (Spearman's Rho 0.161, p < 0.001). This association was confirmed by multivariate analysis, after adjusting for sex, age, parental allergy history, parental smoking status, and allergic sensitization (coefficient B 0.071, 95% confidence interval 0.030–0.112). Conclusions: Skin responses to histamine were primarily correlated with increased BMI. Further studies are needed to understand the clinical implication of BMI when interpreting the results of skin prick test.

Keywords: allergy, body mass index, histamine, skin prick test

Procedia PDF Downloads 343