Search results for: forecast combination

Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

Abstract:

In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Messaoudi Mohammed Amin

Abstract:

The reduction of available land resources and the increased cout associated with the use of hight quality materials have led to the need for local soils to be used in geotecgnical construction however, poor engineering properties of these soils pose difficulties for constructions project and need to be stabilized to improve their properties in oyher works unsuitable soils with low bearing capacity, high plasticity coupled with high insatbility are frequently encountered hense, there is a need to improve the physical and mechanical charateristics of these soils to make theme more suitable for construction this can be done by using different mechanical and chemical methods clayey soil stabilization has been practiced for quite sometime bu mixing additives, such us cement, lime and fly ash to the soil to increase its strength. The aim of this project is to study the effect of using lime, natural pozzolana or combination of both on the geotecgnical cherateristics of clayey soil. Test specimen were subjected to atterberg limits test, compaction test, box shear test and uncomfined compression test Lime or natural pozzolana was added to clayey soil at rangs of 0-8% and 0-20% respectively. In addition combinations of lime –natural pozzolana were added to clayey soil at the same ranges specimen were cured for 1-7, and 28 days after which they were tested for uncofined compression tests. Based on the experimental results, it was concluded that an important decrease of plasticity index was observed for thr samples stabilized with the combinition lime-natural pozzolana in addition, the use of the combination lime-natural pozzolana modifies the clayey soil classification according to casagrand plasiticity chart. Moreover, based on the favourable results of shear and compression strength obtained, it can be concluded that clayey soil can be successfuly stabilized by combined action of lime and natural pozzolana also this combination showed an appreciable improvement of the shear parameters. Finally, since natural pozzolana is much cheaper than lime ,the addition of natural pozzolana in lime soil mix may particulary become attractive and can result in cost reduction of construction.

Keywords: clay, soil stabilization, natural pozzolana, atterberg limits, compaction, compressive strength shear strength, curing

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Obe Olumide Olayinka, Victor Balanica, Eugen Neagoe

Abstract:

The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: neural network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

Abstract:

The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Nazim Uddin, Yohiko Nakaura, Kazutaka Yamamoto

Abstract:

Compote (fruit in syrup) of pineapple (Ananas comosus L. Merrill) is expected to have a high market potential as one of convenient ready-to-eat (RTE) foods worldwide. High hydrostatic pressure (HHP) in combination with low temperature (LT) was applied to the processing of pineapple compote as well as medium HHP (MHHP) in combination with medium-high temperature (MHT) since both processes can enhance liquid impregnation and inactivate microbes. MHHP+MHT (55 or 65 °C) process, as well as the HHP+LT process, has successfully inactivated the microbes in the compote to a non-detectable level. Although the compotes processed by MHHP+MHT or HHP+LT have lost the fresh texture as in a similar manner as those processed solely by heat, it was indicated that the texture degradations by heat were suppressed under MHHP. Degassing process reduced the hardness, while calcium (Ca) contributed to be retained hardness in MHT and MHHP+MHT processes. Electrical impedance measurement supported the damage due to degassing and heat. The color, Brix, and appearance were not affected by the processing methods significantly. MHHP+MHT and HHP+LT processes may be applicable to produce high-quality, safe RTE pineapple compotes. Further studies on the optimization of packaging and storage condition will be indispensable for commercialization.

Keywords: compote of pineapple, RTE, medium high hydrostatic pressure, postharvest loss, texture

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

Abstract:

Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, mike21, sediment

Procedia PDF Downloads 469

Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

Abstract:

Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: accident research, accident scenarios, ADAS, effectiveness, property damage analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Dimassi Wissem

Abstract:

In this work, we investigate the effect of combination between the porous silicon (PS) layer passivized with Lithium Bromide (LiBr) and grooving of grain boundaries (GB) in multi crystalline silicon. The grain boundaries were grooved in order to reduce the area of these highly recombining regions. Using optimized conditions, grooved GB's enable deep phosphorus diffusion and deep metallic contacts. We have evaluated the effects of LiBr on the surface properties of porous silicon on the performance of silicon solar cells. The results show a significant improvement of the internal quantum efficiency, which is strongly related to the photo-generated current. We have also shown a reduction of the surface recombination velocity and an improvement of the diffusion length after the LiBr process. As a result, the I–V characteristics under the dark and AM1.5 illumination were improved. It was also observed a reduction of the GB recombination velocity, which was deduced from light-beam-induced-current (LBIC) measurements. Such grooving in multi crystalline silicon enables passivization of GB-related defects. These results are discussed and compared to solar cells based on untreated multi crystalline silicon wafers.

Keywords: Multicrystalline silicon, LiBr, porous silicon, passivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

Abstract:

India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Ratnakar Mahajan, Matteo Lelli, Kinjal Parmar

Abstract:

Ground improvement is a very important aspect of infrastructure development, especially when it comes to deep-ground improvement. The use of various geosynthetic applications is very common these days for ground improvement. This paper presents a case study where the combination of two geosynthetic applications was used in order to optimize the design as well as to control the settlements through uniform load distribution. The Agartala-Akaura rail project was made to help increase railway connectivity between India and Bangladesh. Both countries have started the construction of the same. The project requires high railway embankments to be built for the rail link. However, the challenge was to design a proper ground improvement solution as the entire area comprises very soft soil for an average depth of 15m. After due diligence, a combination of two methods was worked out by Maccaferri. PVDs were provided for the consolidation, and on top of that, a layer of high-strength geogrids (Paralink) was proposed as a basal reinforcement. The design approach was followed as described in Indian standards as well as British standards. By introducing a basal reinforcement, the spacing of PVDs could be increased, which allowed quick installation and less material consumption while keeping the consolidation time within the project duration.

Keywords: ground improvement, basal reinforcement, PVDs, high strength geogrids, Paralink

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Sang C. Park

Abstract:

Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: performance forecasting, simulation, virtual manned assembly line, WEMax

Procedia PDF Downloads 326

Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: Oluseyi Adunola Bamisaiye

Abstract:

The frequency of occurrence of earth tremor in Nigeria has increased tremendously in recent years. Slow earthquakes/ tremor have preceded some large earthquakes in some other regions of the world and the Nigerian case may not be an exception. Timely and careful investigation of these tremors may reveal their relation to large earthquakes and provides important clues to constrain the slip rates on tectonic faults. Thus making it imperative to keep under watch and also study carefully the tectonically active terrains within the country, in order to adequately forecast, prescribe mitigation measures and in order to avoid a major disaster. This report provides new evidence of a slow slip transient in a strongly locked seismogenic zone of the Okemesi fold belt. The aim of this research is to investigate the different methods of earth tremor monitoring using fault slip analysis and mapping of Okemesi hills, which has been the most recent epicenter to most of the recent tremors.

Keywords: earth tremor, fault slip, intraplate activities, plate tectonics

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Md. Nazmul Haque, Mahinur Rahman

Abstract:

The objective of the research is to determine the quantity of household waste generated and forecast the future condition of Ward No 24 (Nirala). For performing that, three core issues are focused: (i) the capacity and service area of the dumping stations; (ii) the present waste generation amount per capita per day; (iii) the responsibility of the local authority in the household waste collection. This research relied on field survey-based data collection from all stakeholders and GIS-based secondary analysis of waste collection points and their coverage. However, these studies are mostly based on the inherent forecasting approaches, cannot predict the amount of waste correctly. The findings of this study suggest that Nirala is a formal residential area introducing a better approach to the waste collection - self-controlled and collection system. Here, a forecasting model proposed for waste generation as Y = -2250387 + 1146.1 * X, where X = year.

Keywords: eco-friendly environment, household waste, linear regression, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: K. Myška, L. Pilařová

Abstract:

The article deals with possibilities of using cheap mobile devices with the combination of free or open source software tools as an alternative to professional hardware and software equipment. Especially in social work, it is important to find cheap yet functional solution that can compete with complex but expensive solutions for digitizing paper materials. Our research was focused on the analysis of cheap and affordable solutions for digitizing the most frequently used paper materials that are being commonly used by terrain workers in social work. We used comparative analysis as a research method. Social workers need to process data from paper forms quite often. It is still more affordable, time and cost-effective to use paper forms to get feedback in many cases. Collecting data from paper quizzes and questionnaires can be done with the help of professional scanners and software. These technologies are very powerful and have advanced options for digitizing and processing digitized data, but are also very expensive. According to results of our study, the combination of open source software and mobile phone or cheap scanner can be considered as a cost-effective alternative to professional equipment.

Keywords: digitalization, e-learning, mobile devices, questionnaire

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Hossam Shalabi, George Hadjisophocleous

Abstract:

The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables.

Keywords: fire safety, CANDU, nuclear, fuel densities, FDS, qualitative analysis, fire probabilistic risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Pei-Shan Kao

Abstract:

This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.

Keywords: cognitive bias, role of media, disposition effect, earnings-related information, behavioral pitfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Xiao-lei Wang

Abstract:

The Novel Concept Combination (NCC) refers to the unique ability of multilingual children to creatively merge and integrate different linguistic and cultural elements to form innovative and original concepts. Children raised with more than one language often exhibit this skill in their daily communication, such as creating innovative metaphors that enrich their communication, showcasing their creativity in conveying the essence of their messages. This paper explores NCC abilities in multilingual children by focusing on two male trilingual siblings exposed to Chinese, French, and English from birth. The siblings were observed for 19 years in their daily context. Seventy-six hours of video-recorded data were used for this study (38 hours for each participant). A coding scheme developed by Wang et al. was employed to code the recorded data. The results suggest that these multilingual siblings proportionally increased their NCC skills over the years, emerging at age 3 and peaking at age 15. The characteristic of their NCC lies in their capacity to not merely replicate linguistic elements of different languages but to recreate, reshape, and reconstruct novel ideas in communication, enriching their interactions. The paper also addresses the educational implications for educators and parents, emphasizing the importance of valuing these novel ideas in everyday environments to encourage NCC development. This, in turn, contributes to cognitive and social development.

Keywords: multilingual children, novel concept combination, multilingual creativity, linguistic richness

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, linear mixed model, multivariate conditional autoregressive model, spatial time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 395

Authors: JingWei Yu, Hong Yang Yu

Abstract:

At present, the increasingly serious air pollution in various cities of China has made people pay more attention to the air quality index(hereinafter referred to as AQI) of their living areas. To face this situation, it is of great significance to predict air pollution in heavily polluted areas. In this paper, based on the time series model of LSTM, a spatiotemporal prediction model of PM2.5 concentration in Mianyang, Sichuan Province, is established. The model fully considers the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentration. The spatial correlation of air quality at different locations is based on the Air quality status of other nearby monitoring stations, including AQI and meteorological data to predict the air quality of a monitoring station. The experimental results show that the method has good prediction accuracy that the fitting degree with the actual measured data reaches more than 0.7, which can be applied to the modeling and prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional PM2.5 concentration.

Keywords: LSTM, PM2.5, neural networks, spatio-temporal prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Sasan Khademnematolahi, Kevine Kamga Silihe, Katarína Pružinská, Martina Chrastina, Elisabeth Louise Ndjengue Mindang, František Dráfi, Katarína Bauerová

Abstract:

Background: In ethnomedicine, plant parts and compounds are traditionally utilized to treat many disorders. Azadirachta indica, known as Neem, has been traditionally used in medicinal practices. Neem has various pharmaceutical activities, such as antioxidant and anti-inflammatory, due to the content of bioactive compounds like nimbolide, azadirachtin, and gedunin.Through its effect on pathological inflammatory processes, supplementation with it could alleviate the symptoms of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: This research aimed to assess Neem seed oil's impact on rats with adjuvant arthritis. Three doses in monotherapy and two in combination with methotrexate (MTX) have been studied and their effect was compared. Neem p.o. doses of 100, 200, and 300 mg/kg and MTX p.o. doses of 0.3 mg/kg were examined. After clinical parameters assessment, biochemical analysis was performed in plasma. Results: During the acute phase of the experimental arthritis (Day21), levels of MMP-9, MCP-1 and cytokines IL-1beta and IL-17A were measured. The positive results of inflammatory mediators evaluation in plasma encourage additional analysis also in related tissues to prove if Neem seed oil can be used as an adjuvant therapy for RA. Conclusion: In this study, the combination therapy of Neem with MTX was most effective from all therapies investigated.

Keywords: adjuvant, neem, methotrexate, arthritis

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Katie Emerson, Sara Perez-Ojalvo, Jim Komorowski, Danielle Greenberg

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to evaluate arginase activity levels in response to combinations of an inositol-stabilized arginine silicate (ASI; Nitrosigine®), L-arginine, and Inositol. Arginine acts as a vasodilator that promotes increased blood flow resulting in enhanced delivery of oxygen and nutrients to the brain and other tissues. ASI alone has been shown to improve performance on cognitive tasks. Arginase, found in human serum, catalyzes the conversion of arginine to ornithine and urea, completing the last step in the urea cycle. Decreasing arginase levels maintains arginine and results in increased nitric oxide production. This study aimed to determine the most effective combination of ASI, L-arginine and inositol for minimizing arginase levels and therefore maximize ASI’s effect on cognition. Serum was taken from untreated healthy donors by separation from clotted factors. Arginase activity of serum in the presence or absence of test products was determined (QuantiChrom™, DARG-100, Bioassay Systems, Hayward CA). The remaining ultra-filtrated serum units were harvested and used as the source for the arginase enzyme. ASI alone or combined with varied levels of Inositol were tested as follows: ASI + inositol at 0.25 g, 0.5 g, 0.75 g, or 1.00 g. L-arginine was also tested as a positive control. All tests elicited changes in arginase activity demonstrating the efficacy of the method used. Adding L-arginine to serum from untreated subjects, with or without inositol only had a mild effect. Adding inositol at all levels reduced arginase activity. Adding 0.5 g to the standardized amount of ASI led to the lowest amount of arginase activity as compared to the 0.25g 0.75g or 1.00g doses of inositol or to L-arginine alone. The outcome of this study demonstrates an interaction of the pairing of inositol with ASI on the activity of the enzyme arginase. We found that neither the maximum nor minimum amount of inositol tested in this study led to maximal arginase inhibition. Since the inhibition of arginase activity is desirable for product formulations looking to maintain arginine levels, the most effective amount of inositol was deemed preferred. Subsequent studies suggest this moderate level of inositol in combination with ASI leads to cognitive improvements including reaction time, executive function, and concentration.

Keywords: arginine, inositol, arginase, cognitive benefits

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Pezhman Taghipour Birgani, Mehdi Shekarzadeh

Abstract:

In this paper, the propagation of lamb waves in three-layer joints is investigated using global matrix method. Theoretical boundary value problem in three-layer adhesive joints with perfect bond and traction free boundary conditions on their outer surfaces is solved to find a combination of frequencies and modes with the lowest attenuation. The characteristic equation is derived by applying continuity and boundary conditions in three-layer joints using global matrix method. Attenuation and phase velocity dispersion curves are obtained with numerical solution of this equation by a computer code for a three-layer joint, including an aluminum repair patch bonded to the aircraft aluminum skin by a layer of viscoelastic epoxy adhesive. To validate the numerical solution results of the characteristic equation, wave structure curves are plotted for a special mode in two different frequencies in the adhesive joint. The purpose of present paper is to find a combination of frequencies and modes with minimum attenuation in high and low frequencies. These frequencies and modes are recognizable by transducers in inspections with Lamb waves because of low attenuation level.

Keywords: three-layer adhesive joints, viscoelastic, lamb waves, global matrix method

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Maryam Ziaee

Abstract:

This research proposes a new approach and provides an opportunity for manufacturing companies to produce large amounts of products that meet their prospective customers’ tastes, needs, and expectations and simultaneously enable manufacturers to increase their profit. Mass customization is the production of products or services to meet each individual customer’s desires to the greatest possible extent in high quantities and at reasonable prices. This process takes place at different levels such as the customization of goods’ design, assembly, sale, and delivery status, and classifies in several categories. The main focus of this study is on one class of mass customization, called optional customization, in which companies try to provide their customers with as many options as possible to customize their products. These options could range from the design phase to the manufacturing phase, or even methods of delivery. Mass customization values customers’ tastes, but it is only one side of clients’ satisfaction; on the other side is companies’ fast responsiveness delivery. It brings the concept of agility, which is the ability of a company to respond rapidly to changes in volatile markets in terms of volume and variety. Indeed, mass customization is not effectively feasible without integrating the concept of agility. To gain the customers’ satisfaction, the companies need to be quick in responding to their customers’ demands, thus highlighting the significance of agility. This research offers a different method that successfully integrates mass customization and fast production in manufacturing industries. This research is built upon the hypothesis that the success key to being agile in mass customization is to forecast demand, cooperate with suppliers, and control inventory. Therefore, the significance of the supply chain (SC) is more pertinent when it comes to this stage. Since SC behavior is dynamic and its behavior changes constantly, companies have to apply one of the predicting techniques to identify the changes associated with SC behavior to be able to respond properly to any unwelcome events. System dynamics utilized in this research is a simulation approach to provide a mathematical model among different variables to understand, control, and forecast SC behavior. The final stage is delayed differentiation, the production strategy considered in this research. In this approach, the main platform of products is produced and stocked and when the company receives an order from a customer, a specific customized feature is assigned to this platform and the customized products will be created. The main research question is to what extent applying system dynamics for the prediction of SC behavior improves the agility of mass customization. This research is built upon a qualitative approach to bring about richer, deeper, and more revealing results. The data is collected through interviews and is analyzed through NVivo software. This proposed model offers numerous benefits such as reduction in the number of product inventories and their storage costs, improvement in the resilience of companies’ responses to their clients’ needs and tastes, the increase of profits, and the optimization of productivity with the minimum level of lost sales.

Keywords: agility, manufacturing, resilience, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Saeed Ahmadian, Hedie Ashrafi

Abstract:

World-wide spread of coronavirus grows the concern about planning for the excess demand of hospital services in response to COVID-19 pandemic. The surge in the hospital services demand beyond the current capacity leads to shortage of ICU beds and ventilators in some parts of US. In this study, we forecast the required number of hospital beds and possible shortage of beds in US during COVID-19 pandemic to be used in the planning and hospitalization of new cases. In this paper, we used a data on COVID-19 deaths and patients’ hospitalization besides the data on hospital capacities and utilization in US from publicly available sources and national government websites. we used a novel ensemble modelling of deep learning networks, based on stacking different linear and non-linear layers to predict the shortage in hospital beds. The results showed that our proposed approach can predict the excess hospital beds demand very well and this can be helpful in developing strategies and plans to mitigate this gap.

Keywords: COVID-19, deep learning, ensembled models, hospital capacity planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Amir Feily, Hazhir Shahmoradi Akram, Mojtaba Ghaedi, Farshid Javdani, Naser Hatami, Navid Kalani, Mohammad Zarenezhad

Abstract:

Background: Filler-induced facial skin ischemia is a potential complication of dermal filler injections that can result in tissue damage and necrosis. Nitroglycerin has been suggested as a treatment option due to its vasodilatory effects, but its efficacy in this context is unclear. Methods: A narrative review was conducted to examine the available evidence on the efficacy of nitroglycerin in filler-induced facial skin ischemia. Relevant studies were identified through a search of electronic databases and manual searching of reference lists. Results: The review found limited evidence supporting the efficacy of nitroglycerin in this context. While there were case reports where the combination of nitroglycerin and hyaluronidase was successful in treating filler-induced facial skin ischemia, there was only one case report where nitroglycerin alone was successful. Furthermore, a rat model did not demonstrate any benefits of nitroglycerin and showed harmful results. Conclusion: The evidence regarding the efficacy of nitroglycerin in filler-induced facial skin ischemia is inconclusive and seems to be against its application. Further research is needed to determine the effectiveness of nitroglycerin alone and in combination with other treatments for this condition. Clinicians should consider limited evidence bases when deciding on treatment options for patients with filler-induced facial skin ischemia.

Keywords: nitroglycerin, facial, skin ischemia, fillers, efficacy, narrative review

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

The traditional bio-economic method for fisheries modeling uses some estimate of the growth parameters and the system carrying capacity from a biological model for the population dynamics (usually a logistic population growth model) which is then analyzed as a traditional production function. The stock dynamic is transformed into a revenue function and then compared with the extraction costs to estimate the maximum economic yield. In this paper, the logistic population growth model for the population is combined with a forecast of the abundance and location of the stock by using a generalized additive model approach. The paper focuses on the Chilean hake population. This method allows for the incorporation of climatic variables and the interaction with other marine species, which in turn will increase the reliability of the estimates and generate better extraction paths for different conservation objectives, such as the maximum biological yield or the maximum economic yield.

Keywords: bio-economic, fisheries, GAM, production

Procedia PDF Downloads 252

Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

Abstract:

Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, probabilistic models, data clustering, reinforced concrete members, structural design

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Shivani Dhande, Sanjiv Choudhary, Adarshlata Singh

Abstract:

Introduction: Early age of onset of baldness has marked psychological impact on personality. Combination therapies have better efficacy than monotherapy in androgenetic alopecia. Although medical, surgical treatment and cosmetic aids are available for treatment of pattern baldness, medical is first preferred the line of treatment. Although only 5% topical minoxidil is USFDA approved, 10% is available in India since 2007. Efficacy of tablet finasteride is well established in male pattern baldness. 5% topical minoxidil is effective and safe in female pattern baldness. There is a role of saw palmetto in regrowth of scalp hair. With this background research was undertaken to study efficacy and safety of topical minoxidil 10% + tab. Finesteride (1mg) + dermaroller in male pattern baldness and topical minoxidil 5% + cap. Saw palmetto (320 mg) + dermaroller in female pattern baldness. Methods and Materials: It was a randomized uncontrolled evaluator blind study consisting of total 21 patients, 15 of male pattern baldness and 6 of female pattern baldness within 20-35 yrs of age were enrolled. Male patients had Hamilton grade 2-4 MPB and females had Ludwig grade 2 FPB. Male patients were treated with Tab Finesteride 1mg once daily + 10% topical Minoxidil 1ml twice daily for 6 months. Female patients were treated with Cap. Saw palmetto 320 mg once daily + 5% topical Minoxidil twice daily for 6 months. In both male & female patients dermaroller therapy was used once in 10 days for 4 sittings followed by once in 15 days for next 5 months. Blood pressure and possible side effects were monitored in every follow up visits. Pre and post treatment photographs were taken. Assessment of hair growth was done at baseline and at the end of 6 months. Patients satisfactory grading scale and Physician assessment of hair growth scale were used to assessing the results. Trichoscan was done for assessment of hair-shaft diameter and density. Pre and post treatment photographs and Trichoscan hair growth analysis (by diameter and density) was done by physician (dermatologist) not directly involved in this study (evaluator blind). Result: This combination therapy showed moderate response in female pattern alopecia and good to excellent results in male pattern alopecia at the end of 6 months. During therapy none of the patients showed side effects like hypotension, headache and loss of libido, hirsuitism. Mild irritation due to crystal deposition was noted by 3 patients. Conclusion: Effective and early treatment using combination therapy with higher percent of Minoxidil for rapid hair growth is necessary in initial period since it will boost up the self-confidence in patients leading to better treatment compliance. Subsequent maintenance of hair growth can be done with lower concentration. No significant side effects with treatment are observed in both group of patients.

Keywords: androgenetic alopecia, dermaroller, finasteride, minoxidil, saw palmetto

Procedia PDF Downloads 251