Search results for: bayesian rule

Authors: Payman Tajalli, Steven Segal

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Applied ethics is an area of ethics which is looked upon most favorably as the most appropriate and useful for educational purposes; after all if ethics finds no application would any investment of time, effort and finance by the educational institutions be warranted? The current approaches to ethics in business and management often entail appealing to various types of moral theories and to this end almost every major philosophical approach has been enlisted. In this paper, we look at ethics through the philosophy of Emmanuel Levinas to argue that since ethics is ‘first philosophy’ it can neither be rule-based nor rule-governed, not something that can be worked out first and then applied to a given situation, hence the overwhelming emphasis on ‘applied ethics’ as a field of study in business and management education is unjustified. True ethics is not applied ethics. This assertion does not mean that teaching ethical theories and philosophies need to be abandoned rather it is the acceptance of the fact that an increase in cognitive awareness of such theories and ethical models and frameworks, or the mastering of techniques and procedures for ethical decision making, will not affect the desired ethical transformation in our students. Levinas himself argued for an ethics without a foundation, not one that required us to go ‘beyond good and evil’ as Nietzsche contended, rather an ethics which necessitates going ‘before good and evil'. Such an ethics does not provide us with a set of methods or techniques or a decision tree that enable us determine the rightness of an action and what we ought to do, rather it is about a way of being, an ethical posture or approach one takes in the inter-subjective relationship with the other that holds the promise of ethical conduct. Ethics in this Levinasian sense then is one of infinite and unconditional responsibility for the other person in relationship, an ethics which is not subject to negotiation, calculation or reciprocity, and as such it could neither be applied nor taught through conventional pedagogy with its focus on knowledge transfer from the teacher to student, and to this end Levinas offers a non-maieutic, non-conventional approach to pedagogy. The paper concludes that from a Levinasian perspective on ethics and education, we may need to guide our students to move away from the clear and objective professionalism of the management and applied ethics towards the murky individual spiritualism. For Levinas, this is ‘the Copernican revolution’ in ethics.

Keywords: business ethics, ethics education, Levinas, maieutic teaching, ethics without foundation

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Authors: Emiel Caron

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Patent databases contain patent related data, organized in a relational data model, and are used to produce various patent statistics. These databases store raw data about scientific references cited by patents. For example, Patstat holds references to tens of millions of scientific journal publications and conference proceedings. These references might be used to connect patent databases with bibliographic databases, e.g. to study to the relation between science, technology, and innovation in various domains. Problematic in such studies is the low data quality of the references, i.e. they are often ambiguous, unstructured, and incomplete. Moreover, a complete bibliographic reference is stored in only one attribute. Therefore, a computerized cleaning and disambiguation method for large patent databases is developed in this work. The method uses rule-based scoring and clustering. The rules are based on bibliographic metadata, retrieved from the raw data by regular expressions, and are transparent and adaptable. The rules in combination with string similarity measures are used to detect pairs of records that are potential duplicates. Due to the scoring, different rules can be combined, to join scientific references, i.e. the rules reinforce each other. The scores are based on expert knowledge and initial method evaluation. After the scoring, pairs of scientific references that are above a certain threshold, are clustered by means of single-linkage clustering algorithm to form connected components. The method is designed to disambiguate all the scientific references in the Patstat database. The performance evaluation of the clustering method, on a large golden set with highly cited papers, shows on average a 99% precision and a 95% recall. The method is therefore accurate but careful, i.e. it weighs precision over recall. Consequently, separate clusters of high precision are sometimes formed, when there is not enough evidence for connecting scientific references, e.g. in the case of missing year and journal information for a reference. The clusters produced by the method can be used to directly link the Patstat database with bibliographic databases as the Web of Science or Scopus.

Keywords: clustering, data cleaning, data disambiguation, data mining, patent analysis, scientometrics

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Authors: dr. Bendes Ákos

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Digital skepticism, a critical stance towards digital technology and its pervasive influence on society, presents significant challenges when analyzed from a legal philosophical perspective. This abstract aims to explore the intersection of digital skepticism and legal philosophy, emphasizing the implications for justice, rights, and the rule of law in the digital age. Digital skepticism arises from concerns about privacy, security, and the ethical implications of digital technology. It questions the extent to which digital advancements enhance or undermine fundamental human values. Legal philosophy, which interrogates the foundations and purposes of law, provides a framework for examining these concerns critically. One key area where digital skepticism and legal philosophy intersect is in the realm of privacy. Digital technologies, particularly data collection and surveillance mechanisms, pose substantial threats to individual privacy. Legal philosophers must grapple with questions about the limits of state power and the protection of personal autonomy. They must consider how traditional legal principles, such as the right to privacy, can be adapted or reinterpreted in light of new technological realities. Security is another critical concern. Digital skepticism highlights vulnerabilities in cybersecurity and the potential for malicious activities, such as hacking and cybercrime, to disrupt legal systems and societal order. Legal philosophy must address how laws can evolve to protect against these new forms of threats while balancing security with civil liberties. Ethics plays a central role in this discourse. Digital technologies raise ethical dilemmas, such as the development and use of artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms that may perpetuate biases or make decisions without human oversight. Legal philosophers must evaluate the moral responsibilities of those who design and implement these technologies and consider the implications for justice and fairness. Furthermore, digital skepticism prompts a reevaluation of the concept of the rule of law. In an increasingly digital world, maintaining transparency, accountability, and fairness becomes more complex. Legal philosophers must explore how legal frameworks can ensure that digital technologies serve the public good and do not entrench power imbalances or erode democratic principles. Finally, the intersection of digital skepticism and legal philosophy has practical implications for policy-making. Legal scholars and practitioners must work collaboratively to develop regulations and guidelines that address the challenges posed by digital technology. This includes crafting laws that protect individual rights, ensure security, and promote ethical standards in technology development and deployment. In conclusion, digital skepticism provides a crucial lens for examining the impact of digital technology on law and society. A legal philosophical approach offers valuable insights into how legal systems can adapt to protect fundamental values in the digital age. By addressing privacy, security, ethics, and the rule of law, legal philosophers can help shape a future where digital advancements enhance, rather than undermine, justice and human dignity.

Keywords: legal philosophy, privacy, security, ethics, digital skepticism

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Authors: Mahmoud F. Mohamadin, Ahmed Abdel Malek, Wessam Said

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Achieving energy efficient architecture in general, and in emerging countries in particular, is a challenging process that requires the contribution of various governmental, institutional, and individual entities. The rule of architectural design is essential in this process as it is considered as one of the earliest steps on the road to sustainability. Architectural firms have a moral and professional responsibility to respond to these challenges and deliver buildings that consume less energy. This study aims to evaluate the design processes and tools in practice of Egyptian architectural firms based on a limited survey to investigate if their processes and methods can lead to projects that meet the Egyptian Code of Energy Efficiency Improvement. A case study of twenty architectural firms in Cairo was selected and categorized according to their scale; large-scale, medium-scale, and small-scale. A questionnaire was designed and distributed to the firms, and personal meetings with the firms’ representatives took place. The questionnaire answered three main points; the design processes adopted, the usage of performance-based simulation tools, and the usage of BIM tools for energy efficiency purposes. The results of the study revealed that only little percentage of the large-scale firms have clear strategies for building energy efficiency in their building design, however the application is limited to certain project types, or according to the client request. On the other hand, the percentage of medium-scale firms is much less, and it is almost absent in the small-scale ones. This demonstrates the urgent need of enhancing the awareness of the Egyptian architectural design community of the great importance of implementing these methods starting from the early stages of the building design. Finally, the study proposed recommendations for such firms to be able to create a healthy built environment and improve the quality of life in emerging countries.

Keywords: architectural firms, emerging countries, energy efficiency, performance-based simulation tools

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Authors: Aniketh Ravukutam, Rajath Rao M., Pradyumna S. A.

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In the past few decades there has been great advancement in use of aerodynamics in cars. Now its use has been evident from commercial cars to race cars for achieving higher speeds, stability and efficiency. This paper focusses on studying the effects of aerodynamics in Formula Student car. These cars weigh around 200kgs with an average speed of 60kmph. With increasing competition every year, developing a competitive car is a herculean task. The race track comprises mostly of tight corners and little or no straights thus testing the car’s cornering capabilities. Higher cornering speeds can be achieved by increasing traction at the tires. Studying the aerodynamics helps in achieving higher traction without much addition in overall weight of car. The main focus is to develop an aerodynamic package involving front wing, under tray and body to obtain an optimum value of down force. The initial process involves the detail study of geometrical constraints mentioned in the rule book and calculating the limiting value of drag as per the engine specifications. The successive steps involve conduction of various iterations in ANSYS for selection of airfoils, deciding the number of elements, designing the nose for low drag, channelizing the flow under the body and obtain an optimum value of down force within the limits defined in the initial process. The final step involves design of model using these results in Virtual environment called OptimumLap® for detailed study of performance with and without the presence of aerodynamics. The CFD analysis results showed an overall down force of 377.44N with a drag of 164.08N. The corresponding parameters of the last model were applied in OptimumLap® and an improvement of 3.5 seconds in lap times was observed.

Keywords: aerodynamics, formula student, traction, front wing, undertray, body, rule book, drag, down force, virtual environment, computational fluid dynamics (CFD)

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Authors: Wang Chung-Kwei, Lo Kuo Ying

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This study is aimed to examine main and moderation effect of Chinese traditional social wisdom ‘Ren-qing Shi-kuo’ on the adjustment of insurance workers. Rationale: Ren-qing Shi-ku as a social wisdom has been emphasized and practiced by collective-oriented Chinese for thousand years. The concept of‘Ren-qing Shi-ku’includes values, beliefs and behavior rituals, which helps Chinese to cope with interpersonal conflicts in a sophisticated and closely tied collective society. Based on interview and literature review, we found out Chinese still emphasized the importance of ‘Ren-qing Shi-ku’. The concepts contains five factors, including ‘proper emotion display’, ‘social ritual abiding’, ‘ make empathetic concession’, ‘harmonious and proper behavior’ and ‘tolerance for the interest of the whole’. We developed an indigenous ‘Ren-qing Shi-ku’scale based on interview data and a survey on social worker students. Research methods: We conduct a dyad survey between 294 insurance worker and their supervisors. Insurance workers’ response on ‘Ren-qing Shi-ku,emotion labor, emotional exhaustion, work stress and load, work satisfaction and well-being were collected. We also ask their supervisors to rate these workers ‘empathy, social rule abiding, work performance, and Ren-qing Shi-ku performance. Results: Students’self-ratings on Ren-qing Shi-ku scale are positively correlated with rating from their supervisors on all above indexes. Workers who have higher Ren-qing Shi-ku score also have lower work stress and emotion exhaustion, higher work satisfaction and well-being, more emotion deep acting. They also have higher work performance, social rule abiding, and Ren-qing Shi-ku performance rating from their supervisor. The finding of this study suggested Ren-qing Shi-ku is an effective indicator on insurance workers ‘adjustment. Since Ren-qing Shi-ku is trainable, we suggested that Ren-qing Shi-ku training might be beneficial to service industry in a collective-oriented culture.

Keywords: work stress, Ren-qing Shi-ku, emotional exhaustion, work satisfaction, well-being

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Authors: Sharmeen Rahman, Daniel Schmidt, Jane Hughes

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Paratya australiensis Kemp (Decapoda: Atyidae) is a widely distributed indigenous freshwater shrimp, highly abundant in eastern Australia. This species has been considered as a model stream organism to study genetics, dispersal, biology, behaviour and evolution in Atyids. Paratya has a filter feeding and scavenging habit which plays a significant role in the formation of lotic community structure. It has been shown to reduce periphyton and sediment from hard substrates of coastal streams and hence acts as a strongly-interacting ecosystem macroconsumer. Besides, Paratya is one of the major food sources for stream dwelling fishes. Paratya australiensis is a cryptic species complex consisting of 9 highly divergent mitochondrial DNA lineages. Among them, one lineage has been observed to favour upstream sites at higher altitudes, with cooler water temperatures. This study aims to identify local adaptation in upstream and downstream populations of this lineage in three streams in the Conondale Range, North-eastern Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Two populations (up and down stream) from each stream have been chosen to test for local adaptation, and a parallel pattern of adaptation is expected across all streams. Six populations each consisting of 24 individuals were sequenced using the Restriction Site Associated DNA-seq (RAD-seq) technique. Genetic markers (SNPs) were developed using double digest RAD sequencing (ddRAD-seq). These were used for de novo assembly of Paratya genome. De novo assembly was done using the STACKs program and produced 56, 344 loci for 47 individuals from one stream. Among these individuals, 39 individuals shared 5819 loci, and these markers are being used to test for local adaptation using Fst outlier tests (Arlequin) and Bayesian analysis (BayeScan) between up and downstream populations. Fst outlier test detected 27 loci likely to be under selection and the Bayesian analysis also detected 27 loci as under selection. Among these 27 loci, 3 loci showed evidence of selection at a significance level using BayeScan program. On the other hand, up and downstream populations are strongly diverged at neutral loci with a Fst =0.37. Similar analysis will be done with all six populations to determine if there is a parallel pattern of adaptation across all streams. Furthermore, multi-locus among population covariance analysis will be done to identify potential markers under selection as well as to compare single locus versus multi-locus approaches for detecting local adaptation. Adaptive genes identified in this study can be used for future studies to design primers and test for adaptation in related crustacean species.

Keywords: Paratya australiensis, rainforest streams, selection, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs)

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Authors: Sela Adjei

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This paper aims to rationalize the need for media policy implementation and copyright enforcement to address various challenges faced within Ghana’s film industry. After Ghana transitioned to democratic rule in 1992, critics and media professionals advocated a national media policy. This advocacy subsequently resulted in agitation for media deregulation and loosening of grip on state-owned media organizations. The reinstatement of constitutional rule in 1992 paved the way for the state to lax its monopoly of the media within the democratic context of a free market economy. The National Media Commission proposed a media policy and broadcast bill which was presented to parliament but has still not been passed into law. This legislative lapse partly contributed to the influx of unregulated foreign content. Accessible foreign media content subsequently promoted a system of unfair competition that radically undermined locally produced content, putting a generation of thriving film producers out of work. Drawing on reflections from a series of structured interviews, focus group discussions and creative workshops, the findings of this study maintain that the various challenges confronting Ghanaian filmmakers is centred around inadequate funding opportunities, copyright violation and policy implementation issues. Using the film industry structure and value chain analysis, the various challenges faced by the selected film producers were discussed and critically analyzed. A significant aspect of this study is the solution-driven approach adopted in outlining the practical recommendations that will boost the aesthetic, cultural and economic value of Ghanaian film productions. Based on the discussions and conclusions drawn with the various stakeholders within Ghana’s creative industries, the paper makes a strong case for firm state regulation, copyright enforcement and policy implementation to grow Ghana’s film industry.

Keywords: film, value, copyright, media, policy, culture, regulation, economy

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Authors: Piotr Tylec, Alicja Dudek, Grzegorz Torbicz, Magdalena Mizera, Natalia Gajewska, Michael Su, Tanawat Vongsurbchart, Tomasz Stefura, Magdalena Pisarska, Mateusz Rubinkiewicz, Piotr Malczak, Piotr Major, Michal Pedziwiatr

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Introduction: Quality of life after bariatric surgery is an important factor when evaluating the final result of the treatment. Considering the vast surgical options, we tried to globally compare available methods in terms of quality of following the surgery. The aim of the study is to compare the quality of life a year after bariatric intervention using network meta-analysis methods. Material and Methods: We performed a systematic review according to PRISMA guidelines with Bayesian network meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria were: studies comparing at least two methods of weight loss treatment of which at least one is surgical, assessment of the quality of life one year after surgery by validated questionnaires. Primary outcomes were quality of life one year after bariatric procedure. The following aspects of quality of life were analyzed: physical, emotional, general health, vitality, role physical, social, mental, and bodily pain. All questionnaires were standardized and pooled to a single scale. Lifestyle intervention was considered as a referenced point. Results: An initial reference search yielded 5636 articles. 18 studies were evaluated. In comparison of total score of quality of life, we observed that laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) (median (M): 3.606, Credible Interval 97.5% (CrI): 1.039; 6.191), laparoscopic Roux en-Y gastric by-pass (LRYGB) (M: 4.973, CrI: 2.627; 7.317) and open Roux en-Y gastric by-pass (RYGB) (M: 9.735, CrI: 6.708; 12.760) had better results than other bariatric intervention in relation to lifestyle interventions. In the analysis of the physical aspects of quality of life, we notice better results in LSG (M: 3.348, CrI: 0.548; 6.147) and in LRYGB procedure (M: 5.070, CrI: 2.896; 7.208) than control intervention, and worst results in open RYGB (M: -9.212, CrI: -11.610; -6.844). Analyzing emotional aspects, we found better results than control intervention in LSG, in LRYGB, in open RYGB, and laparoscopic gastric plication. In general health better results were in LSG (M: 9.144, CrI: 4.704; 13.470), in LRYGB (M: 6.451, CrI: 10.240; 13.830) and in single-anastomosis gastric by-pass (M: 8.671, CrI: 1.986; 15.310), and worst results in open RYGB (M: -4.048, CrI: -7.984; -0.305). In social and vital aspects of quality of life, better results were observed in LSG and LRYGB than control intervention. We did not find any differences between bariatric interventions in physical role, mental and bodily aspects of quality of life. Conclusion: The network meta-analysis revealed that better quality of life in total score one year after bariatric interventions were after LSG, LRYGB, open RYGB. In physical and general health aspects worst quality of life was in open RYGB procedure. Other interventions did not significantly affect the quality of life after a year compared to dietary intervention.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, network meta-analysis, quality of life, one year follow-up

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Authors: Bin Feng, Zhulin Zong

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Radar systems are critical in the modern military, aviation, and maritime operations, and their proper functioning is essential for the success of these operations. However, due to the complexity and sensitivity of radar systems, they are susceptible to various faults that can significantly affect their performance. Traditional radar fault diagnosis strategies rely on expert knowledge and rule-based approaches, which are often limited in effectiveness and require a lot of time and resources. Deep learning has recently emerged as a promising approach for fault diagnosis due to its ability to learn features and patterns from large amounts of data automatically. In this paper, we propose a radar fault diagnosis strategy based on deep learning that can accurately identify and classify faults in radar systems. Our approach uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) to extract features from radar signals and fault classify the features. The proposed strategy is trained and validated on a dataset of measured radar signals with various types of faults. The results show that it achieves high accuracy in fault diagnosis. To further evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy, we compare it with traditional rule-based approaches and other machine learning-based methods, including decision trees, support vector machines (SVMs), and random forests. The results demonstrate that our deep learning-based approach outperforms the traditional approaches in terms of accuracy and efficiency. Finally, we discuss the potential applications and limitations of the proposed strategy, as well as future research directions. Our study highlights the importance and potential of deep learning for radar fault diagnosis. It suggests that it can be a valuable tool for improving the performance and reliability of radar systems. In summary, this paper presents a radar fault diagnosis strategy based on deep learning that achieves high accuracy and efficiency in identifying and classifying faults in radar systems. The proposed strategy has significant potential for practical applications and can pave the way for further research.

Keywords: radar system, fault diagnosis, deep learning, radar fault

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Authors: Beema Akbar, Varun P. Gopi, V. Suresh Babu

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Colon cancer causes the deaths of about half a million people every year. The common method of its detection is histopathological tissue analysis, it leads to tiredness and workload to the pathologist. A novel method is proposed that combines both structural and statistical pattern recognition used for the detection of colon cancer. This paper presents a comparison among the different classifiers such as Multilayer Perception (MLP), Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO), Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR) and k-star by using classification accuracy and error rate based on the percentage split method. The result shows that the best algorithm in WEKA is MLP classifier with an accuracy of 83.333% and kappa statistics is 0.625. The MLP classifier which has a lower error rate, will be preferred as more powerful classification capability.

Keywords: colon cancer, histopathological image, structural and statistical pattern recognition, multilayer perception

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Authors: David Nieto Simavilla, Wilco M. H. Verbeeten

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The viscoelastic behavior of polymeric flows under isothermal conditions has been extensively researched. However, most of the processing of polymeric materials occurs under non-isothermal conditions and understanding the linkage between the thermo-physical properties and the process state variables remains a challenge. Furthermore, the cost and energy required to manufacture, recycle and dispose polymers is strongly affected by the thermo-physical properties and their dependence on state variables such as temperature and stress. Experiments show that thermal conductivity in flowing polymers is anisotropic (i.e. direction dependent). This phenomenon has been previously omitted in the study and simulation of industrially relevant flows. Our work combines experimental evidence of a universal relationship between thermal conductivity and stress tensors (i.e. the stress-thermal rule) with differential constitutive equations for the viscoelastic behavior of polymers to provide predictions for the anisotropy in thermal conductivity in uniaxial, planar, equibiaxial and shear flow in commercial polymers. A particular focus is placed on the eXtended Pom-Pom model which is able to capture the non-linear behavior in both shear and elongation flows. The predictions provided by this approach are amenable to implementation in finite elements packages, since viscoelastic and thermal behavior can be described by a single equation. Our results include predictions for flow-induced anisotropy in thermal conductivity for low and high density polyethylene as well as confirmation of our method through comparison with a number of thermoplastic systems for which measurements of anisotropy in thermal conductivity are available. Remarkably, this approach allows for universal predictions of anisotropy in thermal conductivity that can be used in simulations of complex flows in which only the most fundamental rheological behavior of the material has been previously characterized (i.e. there is no need for additional adjusting parameters other than those in the constitutive model). Accounting for polymers anisotropy in thermal conductivity in industrially relevant flows benefits the optimization of manufacturing processes as well as the mechanical and thermal performance of finalized plastic products during use.

Keywords: anisotropy, differential constitutive models, flow simulations in polymers, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Sungin Jeong

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This paper presents a linear oscillating generator of cylindrical type for hybrid electric vehicle application. The focus of the study is the suggestion of the optimal model and the design rule of the cylindrical linear oscillating generator with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator. The cylindrical topology is achieved using equivalent magnetic circuit considering leakage elements as initial modeling. This topology with permanent magnet in the back-iron translator is described by number of phases and displacement of stroke. For more accurate analysis of an oscillating machine, it will be compared by moving just one-pole pitch forward and backward the thrust of single-phase system and three-phase system. Through the analysis and comparison, a single-phase system of cylindrical topology as the optimal topology is selected. Finally, the detailed design of the optimal topology takes the magnetic saturation effects into account by finite element analysis. Besides, the losses are examined to obtain more accurate results; copper loss in the conductors of machine windings, eddy-current loss of permanent magnet, and iron-loss of specific material of electrical steel. The considerations of thermal performances and mechanical robustness are essential, because they have an effect on the entire efficiency and the insulations of the machine due to the losses of the high temperature generated in each region of the generator. Besides electric machine with linear oscillating movement requires a support system that can resist dynamic forces and mechanical masses. As a result, the fatigue analysis of shaft is achieved by the kinetic equations. Also, the thermal characteristics are analyzed by the operating frequency in each region. The results of this study will give a very important design rule in the design of linear oscillating machines. It enables us to more accurate machine design and more accurate prediction of machine performances.

Keywords: equivalent magnetic circuit, finite element analysis, hybrid electric vehicle, linear oscillating generator

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Authors: Carlos Roncero-Parra, Alfonso Parreño-Torres, Jorge Mateo Sotos, Alejandro L. Borja

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In this research, different methods based on machine/deep learning algorithms are presented for the classification and diagnosis of patients with mental disorders such as alzheimer. For this purpose, the signals obtained from 32 unipolar electrodes identified by non-invasive EEG were examined, and their basic properties were obtained. More specifically, different well-known machine learning based classifiers have been used, i.e., support vector machine (SVM), Bayesian linear discriminant analysis (BLDA), decision tree (DT), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). A total of 668 patients from five different hospitals have been studied in the period from 2011 to 2021. The best accuracy is obtained was around 93 % in both ADM and ADA classifications. It can be concluded that such a classification will enable the training of algorithms that can be used to identify and classify different mental disorders with high accuracy.

Keywords: alzheimer, machine learning, deep learning, EEG

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Tugce Duygu Koksal

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In recent years, given the fact that the acts of terrorism and the threat of the latter are taking place without any border and distinction, it has led the states to deal with the terrorism as a priority issue. More recently, as seen in different countries during state of emergency, the adoption of anti-terrorism measures motivated by the sole need of the prevention of terrorism targets directly the fundamental rights of individuals. Therefore, a contribution to the understanding of the value of the principle of legality is becoming more and more important nowadays. This paper aims to reflect the probable effects of the adoption of anti-terrorism measures regardless of the principle of legality, on the fundamental rights. In this respect, this paper will first discuss the margin of appreciation of the national authorities by countering terrorism, and then, the importance of the respect of the legality of the anti-terrorism measures will be examined in the light of actual examples. Indeed, one of the major findings of this study is the fact that the anti-terrorism laws and measures were taken in this framework must be subject to close scrutiny in democracies, which adopted the principle of the rule of law and respect human rights. Although the state's margin of appreciation in the field of counter-terrorism is broad, these measures which are based on the legitimate aim of a democracies’ legitimate right to protect itself against the activities of terrorist organizations should have the legal basis and be strictly required by the exigencies of the fight against terrorism. While combating terrorism, the legal basis shall only be achieved if the legal consequences of an individuals’ actions related to terrorism shall be clear and foreseeable by the individuals of a society. On the other hand, particularly during the state of emergency, the ambiguity of the law might be used to include a wide range of actions under acts of terrorism. This is becoming more dangerous where freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom of association and the right to information is in the substance of these actions. Disregarding the principle of legality is susceptible to create a chilling effect on the exercise of human rights, and therefore, the fight against terrorism can be transformed into a repressive regime on opponents. As a result, the efforts to counter terrorism of the national authorities irrespective of the principle of legality are susceptible to cause a transformation of the rule of law to a state of law which cannot be appreciated in a democratic society.

Keywords: anti-terrorism measures, chilling effect, predictability, the principle of legality, state of emergency

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Authors: Hans Tjio, Wee Meng Seng

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The interaction of contract and property has always been a concern in corporate and commercial law, where there are internal structures created that may not match the externally perceived image generated by the labels attached to those structures. We will focus, in particular, on the priority structures created by affirmative asset partitioning, which have increasingly come under challenge by those attempting to negotiate around them. The most prominent has been the AT1 bonds issued by Credit Suisse which were wiped out before its equity when the troubled bank was acquired by UBS. However, this should not have come as a surprise to those whose “bonds” had similarly been “redeemed” upon the occurrence of certain reference events in countries like Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan during their Minibond crisis linked to US sub-prime defaults. These were derivatives classified as debentures and sold as such. At the same time, we are again witnessing “liabilities” seemingly ranking higher up the balance sheet ladder, finding themselves lowered in events of default. We will examine the mechanisms holders of perpetual securities or preference shares have tried to use to protect themselves. This is happening against a backdrop that sees a rise in the strength of private credit and inter-creditor conflicts. The restructuring regime of the hybrid scheme in Singapore now, while adopting the absolute priority rule in Chapter 11 as the quid pro quo for creditor cramdown, does not apply to shareholders and so exempts them from cramdown. Complicating the picture further, shareholders are not exempted from cramdown in the Dutch scheme, but it adopts a relative priority rule. At the same time, the important UK Supreme Court decision in BTI 2014 LLC v Sequana [2022] UKSC 25 has held that directors’ duties to take account of creditor interests are activated only when a company is almost insolvent. All this has been complicated by digital assets created by businesses. Investors are quite happy to have them classified as property (like a thing) when it comes to their transferability, but then when the issuer defaults to have them seen as a claim on the business (as a choice in action), that puts them at the level of a creditor. But these hidden interests will not show themselves on an issuer’s balance sheet until it is too late to be considered and yet if accepted, may also prevent any meaningful restructuring.

Keywords: asset partitioning, creditor priority, restructuring, BTI v Sequana, digital assets

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Authors: Kai Chen, Shuguang Cui, Feng Yin

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Gaussian process (GP) with spectral mixture (SM) kernel demonstrates flexible non-parametric Bayesian learning ability in modeling unknown function. In this work a novel time-varying and non-stationary convolution spectral mixture (TN-CSM) kernel with a significant enhancing of interpretability by using process convolution is introduced. A way decomposing the SM component into an auto-convolution of base SM component and parameterizing it to be input dependent is outlined. Smoothly, performing a convolution between two base SM component yields a novel structure of non-stationary SM component with much better generalized expression and interpretation. The TN-CSM perfectly allows compatibility with the stationary SM kernel in terms of kernel form and spectral base ignored and confused by previous non-stationary kernels. On synthetic and real-world datatsets, experiments show the time-varying characteristics of hyper-parameters in TN-CSM and compare the learning performance of TN-CSM with popular and representative non-stationary GP.

Keywords: Gaussian process, spectral mixture, non-stationary, convolution

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Authors: Andres Nieto-Leal, Victor N. Kaliakin, Tania P. Molina

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The nature of most engineering materials is quite complex. It is, therefore, difficult to devise a general mathematical model that will cover all possible ranges and types of excitation and behavior of a given material. As a result, the development of mathematical models is based upon simplifying assumptions regarding material behavior. Such simplifications result in some material idealization; for example, one of the simplest material idealization is to assume that the material behavior obeys the elasticity. However, soils are nonhomogeneous, anisotropic, path-dependent materials that exhibit nonlinear stress-strain relationships, changes in volume under shear, dilatancy, as well as time-, rate- and temperature-dependent behavior. Over the years, many constitutive models, possessing different levels of sophistication, have been developed to simulate the behavior geomaterials, particularly cohesive soils. Early in the development of constitutive models, it became evident that elastic or standard elastoplastic formulations, employing purely isotropic hardening and predicated in the existence of a yield surface surrounding a purely elastic domain, were incapable of realistically simulating the behavior of geomaterials. Accordingly, more sophisticated constitutive models have been developed; for example, the bounding surface elastoplasticity. The essence of the bounding surface concept is the hypothesis that plastic deformations can occur for stress states either within or on the bounding surface. Thus, unlike classical yield surface elastoplasticity, the plastic states are not restricted only to those lying on a surface. Elastoplastic bounding surface models have been improved; however, there is still need to improve their capabilities in simulating the response of anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils, especially the response in extension tests. Thus, in this work an improved constitutive model that can more accurately predict diverse stress-strain phenomena exhibited by cohesive soils was developed. Particularly, an improved rotational hardening rule that better simulate the response of cohesive soils in extension. The generalized definition of the bounding surface model provides a convenient and elegant framework for unifying various previous versions of the model for anisotropically consolidated cohesive soils. The Generalized Bounding Surface Model for cohesive soils is a fully three-dimensional, time-dependent model that accounts for both inherent and stress induced anisotropy employing a non-associative flow rule. The model numerical implementation in a computer code followed an adaptive multistep integration scheme in conjunction with local iteration and radial return. The one-step trapezoidal rule was used to get the stiffness matrix that defines the relationship between the stress increment and the strain increment. After testing the model in simulating the response of cohesive soils through extensive comparisons of model simulations to experimental data, it has been shown to give quite good simulations. The new model successfully simulates the response of different cohesive soils; for example, Cardiff Kaolin, Spestone Kaolin, and Lower Cromer Till. The simulated undrained stress paths, stress-strain response, and excess pore pressures are in very good agreement with the experimental values, especially in extension.

Keywords: bounding surface elastoplasticity, cohesive soils, constitutive model, modeling of geomaterials

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Authors: Haian Dukhan

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The death of Hafez al-Assad and the ascension of his son, Bashar, to rule brought an end to the state-society dynamics that his father worked on for decades. Hafez al-Assad built an authoritarian state that rests on patronage networks that connected his regime to the society. During Bashar’s reign, these patronage relationships have been affected by the policies of privatization and liberalization. Privatization and liberalisation of the economy have created new economic and social players that transformed the populist nature of the authoritarian regime into a regime that is connected mainly with bourgeoisie and the upper class neglecting the rural tribal constituency that was a vital part of Hafez al-Assad’s authoritarian state. Drawing on different data gathered through interviews as well as written literature, this paper will explore the policies that Bashar al-Assad carried out towards the Arab tribes in the period extended from 2000 until 2010. The paper starts by outlining how Bashar al-Assad narrowed the coalition of his rule to depend mainly on his family, the city merchants excluding the lower and middle strata in the periphery. It will then trace the disintegration of the social contract between the regime and the Arab tribe as a result of the latter’s failure to deliver adequate development services in their regions. Losing the support of the tribes undermined the stability of the regime resulting in different clashes between the tribes themselves, the tribes and the Kurds, the tribes and the druze (a sect of Islam situated in Southern Syria), which will be investigated in detail in this paper. In similar policies adopted by his father who used the tribes as leverage against the Islamists and the Kurds, Bashar al-Assad’s regime encouragement of Syrian tribal youth to join the Iraqi insurgency against the Americans will be explored in detail. The regime’s tolerance of Iran missionary activities in the tribal regions and its accommodation of Islamists group’s activities in those regions have erased the regime’s secular foundation. This paper will argue that Bashar al-Assad’s policies towards the Arab tribes have chipped away the regime’s ideological pillars and threatened the longer-term cohesion of its social base which paved the way for the uprising to start in the tribal regions.

Keywords: Syria, tribes, uprising, regime

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Authors: Hyeongbok Kim, Lingling Zhao, Xiaohong Su, Junjie Wang

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The Bernoulli filter is a precise Bayesian filter for single target tracking based on the random finite set theory. The standard Bernoulli filter often underestimates the number of targets. This study proposes a Gaussian particle flow (GPF) Bernoulli filter employing particle flow to migrate particles from prior to posterior positions to improve the performance of the standard Bernoulli filter. By employing the particle flow filter, the computational speed of the Bernoulli filters is significantly improved. In addition, the GPF Bernoulli filter provides a more accurate estimation compared with that of the standard Bernoulli filter. Simulation results confirm the improved tracking performance and computational speed in two- and three-dimensional scenarios compared with other algorithms.

Keywords: Bernoulli filter, particle filter, particle flow filter, random finite sets, target tracking

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Authors: Vinod C. Nayak

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In day-to-day forensic practice, identification is always a difficult task. Availability of anti-mortem and postmortem records plays a major rule in facilitating this tough task. However, the advent of digital forensic is a boon for forensic experts. This study has made use of digital forensics to establish identity by radiological dimensions of maxillary sinus using workstation software. The findings suggest a significant association between maxillary sinus dimensions and human gender. The author will be discussing the methods and results of the study in this e-poster.

Keywords: digital forensics, identification, maxillary sinus, radiology

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Authors: Inuwa Abdu Ibrahim

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Public officials are required to posses certain values to adequately protect public interest, by being leaders that are servants of the people. The reality in Nigeria is that leaders rule as masters of the people rather than servants. The paper looked at control and control systems of administration in Nigeria, its resultant consequences and ways of achieving true control of administrators and administration. Secondary source of data was adopted for the research. It concludes that the keys to administrative efficiency and effectiveness through control are implementation of the already existing procedures and laws, as well as commitment on the part of public officials.

Keywords: Accountability, Fraud, Administration, Nigeria

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Authors: Giorgi Katamadze

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Open public service and accountability towards citizens is an important feature of democratic state based on rule of law. Effective use of electronic resources simplifies bureaucratic procedures, makes direct communications, helps exchange information, ensures government’s openness and in general helps develop electronic/digital democracy. Development of electronic democracy should be a strategic dimension of Georgian governance. Formation of electronic democracy, its functional improvement should become an important dimension of the state’s information policy. Electronic democracy is based on electronic governance and implies modern information and communication systems, their adaptation to universal standards. E-democracy needs involvement of governments, voters, political parties and social groups in an electronic form. In the last years the process of interaction between the citizen and the state becomes simpler. This process is achieved by the use of modern technological systems which gives to a citizen a possibility to use different public services online. For example, the website my.gov.ge makes interaction between the citizen, business and the state more simple, comfortable and secure. A higher standard of accountability and interaction is being established. Electronic democracy brings new forms of interactions between the state and the citizen: e-engagement – participation of society in state politics via electronic systems; e-consultation – electronic interaction among public officials, citizens and interested groups; e-controllership – electronic rule and control of public expenses and service. Public transparency is one of the milestones of electronic democracy as well as representative democracy as only on mutual trust and accountability can democracy be established. In Georgia, institutional changes concerning establishment and development of electronic democracy are not enough. Effective planning and implementation of a comprehensive and multi component e-democracy program (central, regional, local levels) requires telecommunication systems, institutional (public service, competencies, logical system) and informational (relevant conditions for public involvement) support. Therefore, a systematic project of formation of electronic governance should be developed which will include central, regional, municipal levels and certain aspects of development of instrumental basis for electronic governance.

Keywords: e-democracy, e-governance, e-services, information technology, public administration

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Authors: Mohamed Salah Azzaz, Camel Tanougast, Tarek Hadjem

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In this paper, a new low-cost image encryption technique is proposed and analyzed. The developed chaos-based key generator provides complex behavior and can change it automatically via a random-like switching rule. The designed encryption scheme is called PCSS (Parametric Chaos-based Switching System). The performances of this technique were evaluated in terms of data security and privacy. Simulation results have shown the effectiveness of this technique, and it can thereafter, ready for a hardware implementation.

Keywords: chaos, encryption, security, image

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Authors: Mouhammd Alkasassbeh, Alaa Lasasmeh

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We live in an era of rapid development as a result of significant scientific growth. Like other technologies, wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are playing one of the main roles. Based on WSNs, ZigBee adds many features to devices, such as minimum cost and power consumption, and increasing the range and connect ability of sensor nodes. ZigBee technology has come to be used in various fields, including science, engineering, and networks, and even in medicinal aspects of intelligence building. In this work, we generated two main datasets, the first being based on tree topology and the second on star topology. The datasets were evaluated by three machine learning (ML) algorithms: J48, meta.j48 and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Each topology was classified into normal and abnormal (attack) network traffic. The dataset used in our work contained simulated data from network simulation 2 (NS2). In each database, the Bayesian network meta.j48 classifier achieved the highest accuracy level among other classifiers, of 99.7% and 99.2% respectively.

Keywords: IDS, Machine learning, WSN, ZigBee technology

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Authors: Gabriel Dolabella, Henrique Rangel, Stella Araújo, Carlos Bolonha, Igor de Lazari

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Public security is a common subject on the Brazilian political agenda. The seventh largest economy in the world has high crime and insecurity rates. Specialists try to explain this social picture based on poverty, inequality or public policies addressed to drug trafficking. This excerpt approaches State measures to handle that picture. Therefore, the public security - law enforcement institutions - is at the core of this paper, particularly the relationship among federal and state law enforcement agencies, mainly ruled by a system of urgency. The problems are informal changes on law enforcement management and public opinion collaboration to these changes. Whenever there were huge international events, Brazilian armed forces occupied streets to assure law enforcement - ensuring the order. This logic, considered in the long time, could impact the federal structure of the country. The post-madisonian theorists verify that urgency is often associated to delegation of powers, which is true for Brazilian law enforcement, but here there is a different delegation: States continuously delegate law enforcement powers to the federal government throughout the use of Armed Forces. Therefore, the hypothesis is: Brazil is under a political process of federalization of public security. The political framework addressed here can be explained by the disrespect of legal constraints and the failure of rule of law theoretical models. The methodology of analysis is based on general criteria. Temporally, this study investigates events from 2003, when discussions about the disarmament statute begun. Geographically, this study is limited to Brazilian borders. Materially, the analysis result from the observation of legal resources and political resources (pronouncements of government officials). The main parameters are based on post-madisonianism and federalization of public security can be assessed through credibility and popularity that allow evaluation of this political process of constitutional change. The objective is to demonstrate how the Military Forces are used in public security, not as a random fact or an isolated political event, in order to understand the political motivations and effects that stem from that use from an institutional perspective.

Keywords: public security, governability, rule of law, federalism

Procedia PDF Downloads 651

Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics models use an agent-based modeling approach to model people’s opinions. Model's properties are usually explored by testing the two 'degrees of freedom': the interaction rule and the network topology. The latter defines the connection, and thus the possible interaction, among agents. The interaction rule, instead, determines how agents select each other and update their own opinion. Here we show the existence of the third degree of freedom. This can be used for turning one model into each other or to change the model’s output up to 100% of its initial value. Opinion dynamics models represent the evolution of real-world opinions parsimoniously. Thus, it is fundamental to know how real-world opinion (e.g., supporting a candidate) could be turned into a number. Specifically, we want to know if, by choosing a different opinion-to-number transformation, the model’s dynamics would be preserved. This transformation is typically not addressed in opinion dynamics literature. However, it has already been studied in psychometrics, a branch of psychology. In this field, real-world opinions are converted into numbers using abstract objects called 'scales.' These scales can be converted one into the other, in the same way as we convert meters to feet. Thus, in our work, we analyze how this scale transformation may affect opinion dynamics models. We perform our analysis both using mathematical modeling and validating it via agent-based simulations. To distinguish between scale transformation and measurement error, we first analyze the case of perfect scales (i.e., no error or noise). Here we show that a scale transformation may change the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. Meaning that a researcher may reach a totally different conclusion, even using the same dataset just by slightly changing the way data are pre-processed. Indeed, we quantify that this effect may alter the model’s output by 100%. By using two models from the standard literature, we show that a scale transformation can transform one model into the other. This transformation is exact, and it holds for every result. Lastly, we also test the case of using real-world data (i.e., finite precision). We perform this test using a 7-points Likert scale, showing how even a small scale change may result in different predictions or a number of opinion clusters. Because of this, we think that scale transformation should be considered as a third-degree of freedom for opinion dynamics. Indeed, its properties have a strong impact both on theoretical models and for their application to real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: Yuanxiaoyue Yang

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Emissions trading, or ‘cap-and-trade', has been long promoted by economists as a more cost-effective pollution control approach than traditional performance standard approaches. While there is a large body of empirical evidence for the overall effectiveness of emissions trading, relatively little attention has been paid to other unintended consequences brought by emissions trading. One important consequence is that cap-and-trade could introduce the risk of creating high-level emission concentrations in areas where emitting facilities purchase a large number of emission allowances, which may cause an unequal distribution of environmental benefits. This study will contribute to the current environmental policy literature by linking trading activity with environmental injustice concerns and empirically analyzing the causal relationship between trading activity and emissions reduction under a cap-and-trade program for the first time. To investigate the potential environmental injustice concern in cap-and-trade, this paper uses a differences-in-differences (DID) with instrumental variable method to identify the causal effect of allowance trading behaviors on emission reduction levels under the clean air interstate rule (CAIR), a cap-and-trade program targeting on the power sector in the eastern US. The major data source is the facility-year level emissions and allowance transaction data collected from US EPA air market databases. While polluting facilities from CAIR are the treatment group under our DID identification, we use non-CAIR facilities from the Acid Rain Program - another NOx control program without a trading scheme – as the control group. To isolate the causal effects of trading behaviors on emissions reduction, we also use eligibility for CAIR participation as the instrumental variable. The DID results indicate that the CAIR program was able to reduce NOx emissions from affected facilities by about 10% more than facilities who did not participate in the CAIR program. Therefore, CAIR achieves excellent overall performance in emissions reduction. The IV regression results also indicate that compared with non-CAIR facilities, purchasing emission permits still decreases a CAIR participating facility’s emissions level significantly. This result implies that even buyers under the cap-and-trade program have achieved a great amount of emissions reduction. Therefore, we conclude little evidence of environmental injustice from the CAIR program.

Keywords: air pollution, cap-and-trade, emissions trading, environmental justice

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Authors: Andrey Makarov

Abstract:

This article will focus on the development of antitrust policy in transition economies in the context of preventing explicit and tacit collusion. Experience of BRICS, CIS (Ukraine, Kazakhstan) and CEE countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Estonia) in the creation of antitrust institutions was analyzed, including both legislation and enforcement practice. Most of these countries in the early 90th were forced to develop completely new legislation in the field of protection of competition and it is important to compare different ways of building antitrust institutions and policy results. The article proposes a special approach to evaluation of preventing collusion mechanisms. This approach takes into account such enforcement problems as: classification problems (tacit vs explicit collusion, vertical vs horizontal agreements), flexibility of prohibitions (the balance between “per se” vs “rule of reason” approaches de jure and in practice), design of sanctions, private enforcement challenge, leniency program mechanisms, the role of antitrust authorities etc. The analysis is conducted using both official data, published by competition authorities, and expert assessments. The paper will show how the integration process within the EU predetermined some aspects of the development of antitrust policy in CEE countries, including the trend of the use of "rule of reason" approach. Simultaneously was analyzed the experience of CEE countries in special mechanisms of government intervention. CIS countries in the development of antitrust policy followed more or less original ways, without such a great impact from the European Union, more attention will be given to Russian experience in this field, including the analysis of judicial decisions in antitrust cases. Main problems and challenges for transition economies in this field will be shown, including: Legal uncertainty problem; Problem of rigidity of prohibitions; Enforcement priorities of the regulator; Interaction of administrative and criminal law, limited effectiveness of criminal sanctions in the antitrust field; The effectiveness of leniency program design; Private enforcement challenge.

Keywords: collusion, antitrust policy, leniency program, transition economies, Russia, CEE

Procedia PDF Downloads 425