Search results for: reverse time migration (RTM)
15272 Changed Behavior of the Porcine Hemagglutinating Encephalomyelitis Virus (Betacoronavirus) in Respiratory Epithelial Cells
Authors: Ateeqa Aslam, Hans J. Nauwynck
Abstract:
Porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (PHEV) is a betacoronavirus that has been studied in the past as a cause of vomiting and wasting disease (VWD) in young piglets (<3 weeks). Nowadays, the virus is still circulating on most farms in Belgium, but there are no descriptions anymore of VWD. Therefore, we are interested in differences between the old and new strains. We compared the replication kinetics of the old well-studied strain VW572 (1972) and the recent isolate P412 (2020) in a susceptible continuous cell line (RPD cells) and in primary porcine respiratory epithelial cells (PoRECs). The RPD cell line was inoculated with each PHEV strain at an m.o.i. of 1 the supernatant was collected, and the cells were fixed at different time points post-inoculation. The supernatant was titrated (extracellular virus titer), and the infected cells were revealed by immunofluorescence staining and quantitated by fluorescence microscopy. We found that VW572 replicated better in the RPD cell line at earlier time points when compared to P412. Porcine respiratory epithelial cells (PoREC) were isolated, grown at air-liquid interphase in transwells and inoculated with both strains of PHEV at a virus titer of 106.6TCID50 per 200 µl either at the apical side or at the basal side of the cells. At different time points after inoculation, the transwells were fixed and stained for infected cells. VW572 preferentially infected the epithelial cells via the basolateral side of porcine nasal epithelial cells, whereas P412 preferred the apical side. These findings suggest that there has been an evolution of PHEV in its interaction with the respiratory epithelial cells. In the future, more virus strains will be enclosed and the tropism of the strains for different neuronal cell types will be examined for the change in virus neurotropism.Keywords: porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (PHEV), primary porcine respiratory epithelial cells (PoRECs), virus tropism, vomiting and wasting disease (VWD)
Procedia PDF Downloads 5915271 The Relationships between Energy Consumption, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions, and GDP for Egypt: Time Series Analysis, 1980-2010
Authors: Jinhoa Lee
Abstract:
The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Egypt using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen maximum likelihood method for co-integration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests some negative impacts of the CO2 emissions and the coal and natural gas use on the GDP. Conversely, a positive long-run causality from the electricity consumption to the GDP is found to be significant in Egypt during the period. In the short-run, some positive unidirectional causalities exist, running from the coal consumption to the GDP, and the CO2 emissions and the natural gas use. Further, the GDP and the electricity use are positively influenced by the consumption of petroleum products and the direct combustion of crude oil. Overall, the results support arguments that there are relationships among environmental quality, energy use, and economic output in both the short term and long term; however, the effects may differ due to the sources of energy, such as in the case of Egypt for the period of 1980-2010.Keywords: CO2 emissions, Egypt, energy consumption, GDP, time series analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 61515270 Automated End of Sprint Detection for Force-Velocity-Power Analysis with GPS/GNSS Systems
Authors: Patrick Cormier, Cesar Meylan, Matt Jensen, Dana Agar-Newman, Chloe Werle, Ming-Chang Tsai, Marc Klimstra
Abstract:
Sprint-derived horizontal force-velocity-power (FVP) profiles can be developed with adequate validity and reliability with satellite (GPS/GNSS) systems. However, FVP metrics are sensitive to small nuances in data processing procedures such that minor differences in defining the onset and end of the sprint could result in different FVP metric outcomes. Furthermore, in team-sports, there is a requirement for rapid analysis and feedback of results from multiple athletes, therefore developing standardized and automated methods to improve the speed, efficiency and reliability of this process are warranted. Thus, the purpose of this study was to compare different methods of sprint end detection on the development of FVP profiles from 10Hz GPS/GNSS data through goodness-of-fit and intertrial reliability statistics. Seventeen national team female soccer players participated in the FVP protocol which consisted of 2x40m maximal sprints performed towards the end of a soccer specific warm-up in a training session (1020 hPa, wind = 0, temperature = 30°C) on an open grass field. Each player wore a 10Hz Catapult system unit (Vector S7, Catapult Innovations) inserted in a vest in a pouch between the scapulae. All data were analyzed following common procedures. Variables computed and assessed were the model parameters, estimated maximal sprint speed (MSS) and the acceleration constant τ, in addition to horizontal relative force (F₀), velocity at zero (V₀), and relative mechanical power (Pmax). The onset of the sprints was standardized with an acceleration threshold of 0.1 m/s². The sprint end detection methods were: 1. Time when peak velocity (MSS) was achieved (zero acceleration), 2. Time after peak velocity drops by -0.4 m/s, 3. Time after peak velocity drops by -0.6 m/s, and 4. When the integrated distance from the GPS/GNSS signal achieves 40-m. Goodness-of-fit of each sprint end detection method was determined using the residual sum of squares (RSS) to demonstrate the error of the FVP modeling with the sprint data from the GPS/GNSS system. Inter-trial reliability (from 2 trials) was assessed utilizing intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). For goodness-of-fit results, the end detection technique that used the time when peak velocity was achieved (zero acceleration) had the lowest RSS values, followed by -0.4 and -0.6 velocity decay, and 40-m end had the highest RSS values. For intertrial reliability, the end of sprint detection techniques that were defined as the time at (method 1) or shortly after (method 2 and 3) when MSS was achieved had very large to near perfect ICC and the time at the 40 m integrated distance (method 4) had large to very large ICCs. Peak velocity was reached at 29.52 ± 4.02-m. Therefore, sport scientists should implement end of sprint detection either when peak velocity is determined or shortly after to improve goodness of fit to achieve reliable between trial FVP profile metrics. Although, more robust processing and modeling procedures should be developed in future research to improve sprint model fitting. This protocol was seamlessly integrated into the usual training which shows promise for sprint monitoring in the field with this technology.Keywords: automated, biomechanics, team-sports, sprint
Procedia PDF Downloads 11915269 Yield and Composition of Bio-Oil from Co-Pyrolysis of Corn Cobs and Plastic Waste of HDPE in a Fixed Bed Reactor
Authors: Dijan Supramono, Eny Kusrini, Haisya Yuana
Abstract:
Pyrolysis, a thermal cracking process in inert environment, may be used to produce bio-oil from biomass and plastic waste thus accommodating the use of renewable energy. Abundant amount of biomass waste in Indonesia are not utilised and plastic wastes are not well processed for clean environment. The aim of present work was to evaluate effect of mass ratio of plastic material to biomass in the feed blend of corn cobs and high density polyethylene (HDPE) of co-pyrolysis on bio-oil yield and chemical composition of bio-oil products. The heating rate of the co-pyrolysis was kept low and residence time was in the order of seconds to accommodate high yield of oil originating from plastic pyrolysis. Corn cobs have high cellulose and hemicellulose content (84%) which is potential to produce bio-oil. The pyrolysis was conducted in a laboratory-scale using a fixed bed reactor with final temperature of 500°C, heating rate 5 °C/min, flow rate N2 750 mL/min, total weight of biomass and plastic material of 20 g, and hold time after peak temperature of 30 min. Set up of conditions of co-pyrolysis should lead to accommodating the production of oil originating from HDPE due to constraint of HDPE pyrolysis residence time. Mass ratio of plastics to biomass in the feed blend was varied 0:100, 25:75, 50:50, 75:25 and 100:0. It was found that by increasing HDPE content up to 100% in the feed blend, the yield of bio-oil at different mass ratios prescribed above were 28.05, 21.55, 14.55, 9.5, and 6.3wt%, respectively. Therefore, in the fixed bed reactor, producing bio-oil is constrained by low contribution of plastic feedstock to the pyrolysis liquid yield. Furthermore, for the same variation of the mass ratio, yields of the mixture of paraffins, olefins and cycloalkanes contained in bio-oil were of 0, 28.35, 40.75, 47.17, and 67.05wt%, respectively. Olefins and cycloalkanes are easily hydrogenised to produce paraffins, suitable to be used as bio-fuel. By increasing composition of HDPE in the feed blend, viscosity and pH of bio-oil change approaching to those of commercial diesel oil.Keywords: co-pyrolysis, corn cobs, fixed bed reactor, HDPE
Procedia PDF Downloads 35515268 Predicting Mixing Patterns of Overflows from a Square Manhole
Authors: Modupe O. Jimoh
Abstract:
During manhole overflows, its contents pollute the immediate environment. Understanding the pollutant transfer characteristics between manhole’s incoming sewer and the overflow is therefore of great importance. A square manhole with sides 388 mm by 388 mm and height 700 mm with an overflow facility was used in the laboratory to carry out overflow concentration measurements. Two scenarios were investigated using three flow rates. The first scenario corresponded to when the exit of the pipe becomes blocked and the only exit for the flow is the manhole. The second scenario is when there is an overflow in combination with a pipe exit. The temporal concentration measurements showed that the peak concentration of pollutants in the flow was attenuated between the inlet and the overflow. A deconvolution software was used to predict the Residence time distribution (RTD) and consequently the Cumulative Residence time distribution (CRTD). The CRTDs suggest that complete mixing is occurring between the pipe inlet and the overflow, like what is obtained in a low surcharged manhole. The results also suggest that an instantaneous stirred tank reactor model can describe the mixing characteristics.Keywords: CRTDs, instantaneous stirred tank reactor model, overflow, square manholes, surcharge, temporal concentration profiles
Procedia PDF Downloads 14415267 Researching Servant Leadership Behaviors of Sport Managers
Authors: Betul Altinok
Abstract:
The aim of this study is researching servant leadership behaviors of sports managers. For this purpose, Servant Leadership behaviors of Sport Managers (N=69) working as Dean, School Principal and Head of Department in Sport Sciences Faculties, Physical Education and Sport Schools and Departments educating Physical Education and Sport investigated via questionnaires applied to academicians (N=1185) working in these institutions. Servant Leadership Questionnaire sent via e-mail to all Academicians working in Physical Education and Sport educating Faculties, Schools of Universities and Departments in Turkey. 406 survey which is responded and accurately completed by Academicians were evaluated. In this study, Servant Leadership Questionnaire developed and conducted validity and reliability analysis by Barbuto and Wheeler (2006) used to investigate sports managers servant leadership behaviors. Scale translated into Turkish then validity and reliability analysis were conducted. After measurement model of servant leadership questionnaire verified, Shapiro Wilk normality test was applied to obtained data to determine whether has got a normal distribution or not, depending on gender, job title, profession time, department and evaluated manager. Results of practiced normality test showed that data has not got a normal distribution (nonparametric). After normality test, Mann Whitney-U test applied at 0.05 value for determining whether there is a difference between servant leadership scores according to gender and Kruskal Wallis Test applied at 0.05 value for determining whether there is a difference between servant leadership scores according to job title, profession time, department and evaluated manager. Test results showed that there were not differences between Altruistic Calling (p>0.05), Emotional Healing (p>0.05), Wisdom (p>0.05), Persuasive Mapping (p>0.05) and (p>0.05), Organizational Stewardship sub-dimensions according to gender. Test results showed that there were not differences between Altruistic Calling (p>0.05), Emotional Healing (p>0.05), Wisdom (p>0.05), Persuasive Mapping (p>0.05) and (p>0.05), Organizational Stewardship sub-dimensions according to job title, profession time, department and evaluated manager. In the light of study results, it can be said that applied survey is objective and unfurls evaluated managers servant leadership behaviors. Empirical and practical contribution of this study is to test sports managers servant leadership behaviors in Turkey for the very first time.Keywords: academicians, management, servant leadership, sport
Procedia PDF Downloads 31015266 Preliminary Study of Hand Gesture Classification in Upper-Limb Prosthetics Using Machine Learning with EMG Signals
Authors: Linghui Meng, James Atlas, Deborah Munro
Abstract:
There is an increasing demand for prosthetics capable of mimicking natural limb movements and hand gestures, but precise movement control of prosthetics using only electrode signals continues to be challenging. This study considers the implementation of machine learning as a means of improving accuracy and presents an initial investigation into hand gesture recognition using models based on electromyographic (EMG) signals. EMG signals, which capture muscle activity, are used as inputs to machine learning algorithms to improve prosthetic control accuracy, functionality and adaptivity. Using logistic regression, a machine learning classifier, this study evaluates the accuracy of classifying two hand gestures from the publicly available Ninapro dataset using two-time series feature extraction algorithms: Time Series Feature Extraction (TSFE) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Trials were conducted using varying numbers of EMG channels from one to eight to determine the impact of channel quantity on classification accuracy. The results suggest that although both algorithms can successfully distinguish between hand gesture EMG signals, CNNs outperform TSFE in extracting useful information for both accuracy and computational efficiency. In addition, although more channels of EMG signals provide more useful information, they also require more complex and computationally intensive feature extractors and consequently do not perform as well as lower numbers of channels. The findings also underscore the potential of machine learning techniques in developing more effective and adaptive prosthetic control systems.Keywords: EMG, machine learning, prosthetic control, electromyographic prosthetics, hand gesture classification, CNN, computational neural networks, TSFE, time series feature extraction, channel count, logistic regression, ninapro, classifiers
Procedia PDF Downloads 3115265 EarlyWarning for Financial Stress Events:A Credit-Regime Switching Approach
Abstract:
We propose a new early warning model for predicting financial stress events for a given future time. In this model, we examine whether credit conditions play an important role as a nonlinear propagator of shocks when predicting the likelihood of occurrence of financial stress events for a given future time. This propagation takes the form of a threshold regression in which a regime change occurs if credit conditions cross a critical threshold. Given the new early warning model for financial stress events, we evaluate the performance of this model and currently available alternatives, such as the model from signal extraction approach, and linear regression model. In-sample forecasting results indicate that the three types of models are useful tools for predicting financial stress events while none of them outperforms others across all criteria considered. The out-of-sample forecasting results suggest that the credit-regime switching model performs better than the two others across all criteria and all forecasting horizons considered.Keywords: cut-off probability, early warning model, financial crisis, financial stress, regime-switching model, forecasting horizons
Procedia PDF Downloads 43515264 Primary-Color Emitting Photon Energy Storage Nanophosphors for Developing High Contrast Latent Fingerprints
Authors: G. Swati, D. Haranath
Abstract:
Commercially available long afterglow /persistent phosphors are proprietary materials and hence the exact composition and phase responsible for their luminescent characteristics such as initial intensity and afterglow luminescence time are not known. Further to generate various emission colors, commercially available persistence phosphors are physically blended with fluorescent organic dyes such as rodhamine, kiton and methylene blue etc. Blending phosphors with organic dyes results into complete color coverage in visible spectra, however with time, such phosphors undergo thermal and photo-bleaching. This results in the loss of their true emission color. Hence, the current work is dedicated studies on inorganic based thermally and chemically stable primary color emitting nanophosphors namely SrAl2O4:Eu2+, Dy3+, (CaZn)TiO3:Pr3+, and Sr2MgSi2O7:Eu2+, Dy3+. SrAl2O4: Eu2+, Dy3+ phosphor exhibits a strong excitation in UV and visible region (280-470 nm) with a broad emission peak centered at 514 nm is the characteristic emission of parity allowed 4f65d1→4f7 transitions of Eu2+ (8S7/2→2D5/2). Sunlight excitable Sr2MgSi2O7:Eu2+,Dy3+ nanophosphors emits blue color (464 nm) with Commercial international de I’Eclairage (CIE) coordinates to be (0.15, 0.13) with a color purity of 74 % with afterglow time of > 5 hours for dark adapted human eyes. (CaZn)TiO3:Pr3+ phosphor system possess high color purity (98%) which emits intense, stable and narrow red emission at 612 nm due intra 4f transitions (1D2 → 3H4) with afterglow time of 0.5 hour. Unusual property of persistence luminescence of these nanophoshphors supersedes background effects without losing sensitive information these nanophosphors offer several advantages of visible light excitation, negligible substrate interference, high contrast bifurcation of ridge pattern, non-toxic nature revealing finger ridge details of the fingerprints. Both level 1 and level 2 features from a fingerprint can be studied which are useful for used classification, indexing, comparison and personal identification. facile methodology to extract high contrast fingerprints on non-porous and porous substrates using a chemically inert, visible light excitable, and nanosized phosphorescent label in the dark has been presented. The chemistry of non-covalent physisorption interaction between the long afterglow phosphor powder and sweat residue in fingerprints has been discussed in detail. Real-time fingerprint development on porous and non-porous substrates has also been performed. To conclude, apart from conventional dark vision applications, as prepared primary color emitting afterglow phosphors are potentional candidate for developing high contrast latent fingerprints.Keywords: fingerprints, luminescence, persistent phosphors, rare earth
Procedia PDF Downloads 22115263 Saline Aspiration Negative Intravascular Test: Mitigating Risk with Injectable Fillers
Authors: Marcelo Lopes Dias Kolling, Felipe Ferreira Laranjeira, Guilherme Augusto Hettwer, Pedro Salomão Piccinini, Marwan Masri, Carlos Oscar Uebel
Abstract:
Introduction: Injectable fillers are among the most common nonsurgical cosmetic procedures, with significant growth yearly. Knowledge of rheological and mechanical characteristics of fillers, facial anatomy, and injection technique is essential for safety. Concepts such as the use of cannula versus needle, aspiration before injection, and facial danger zones have been well discussed. In case of an accidental intravascular puncture, the pressure inside the vessel may not be sufficient to push blood into the syringe due to the characteristics of the filler product; this is especially true for calcium hydroxyapatite (CaHA) or hyaluronic acid (HA) fillers with high G’. Since viscoelastic properties of normal saline are much lower than those of fillers, aspiration with saline prior to filler injection may decrease the risk of a false negative aspiration and subsequent catastrophic effects. We discuss a technique to add an additional safety step to the procedure with saline aspiration prior to injection, a ‘’reverse Seldinger’’ technique for intravascular access, which we term SANIT: Saline Aspiration Negative Intravascular Test. Objectives: To demonstrate the author’s (PSP) technique which adds an additional safety step to the process of filler injection, with both CaHA and HA, in order to decrease the risk of intravascular injection. Materials and Methods: Normal skin cleansing and topical anesthesia with prilocaine/lidocaine cream are performed; the facial subunits to be treated are marked. A 3mL Luer lock syringe is filled with 2mL of 0.9% normal saline and a 27G needle, which is turned one half rotation. When a cannula is to be used, the Luer lock syringe is attached to a 27G 4cm single hole disposable cannula. After skin puncture, the 3mL syringe is advanced with the plunger pulled back (negative pressure). Progress is made to the desired depth, all the while aspirating. Once the desired location of filler injection is reached, the syringe is exchanged for the syringe containing a filler, securely grabbing the hub of the needle and taking care to not dislodge the needle tip. Prior to this, we remove 0.1mL of filler to allow for space inside the syringe for aspiration. We again aspirate and inject retrograde. SANIT is especially useful for CaHA, since the G’ is much higher than HA, and thus reflux of blood into the syringe is less likely to occur. Results: The technique has been used safely for the past two years with no adverse events; the increase in cost is negligible (only the cost of 2mL of normal saline). Over 100 patients (over 300 syringes) have been treated with this technique. The risk of accidental intravascular puncture has been calculated to be between 1:6410 to 1:40882 syringes among expert injectors; however, the consequences of intravascular injection can be catastrophic even with board-certified physicians. Conclusions: While the risk of intravascular filler injection is low, the consequences can be disastrous. We believe that adding the SANIT technique can help further mitigate risk with no significant untoward effects and could be considered by all performing injectable fillers. Further follow-up is ongoing.Keywords: injectable fillers, safety, saline aspiration, injectable filler complications, hyaluronic acid, calcium hydroxyapatite
Procedia PDF Downloads 15015262 Flipped Learning in the Delivery of Structural Analysis
Authors: Ali Amin
Abstract:
This paper describes a flipped learning initiative which was trialed in the delivery of the course: structural analysis and modelling. A short series of interactive videos were developed, which introduced the key concepts of each topic. The purpose of the videos was to introduce concepts and give the students more time to develop their thoughts prior to the lecture. This allowed more time for face to face engagement during the lecture. As part of the initial study, videos were developed for half the topics covered. The videos included a short summary of the key concepts ( < 10 mins each) as well as fully worked-out examples (~30mins each). Qualitative feedback was attained from the students. On a scale from strongly disagree to strongly agree, students were rate statements such as 'The pre-class videos assisted your learning experience', 'I felt I could appreciate the content of the lecture more by watching the videos prior to class'. As a result of the pre-class engagement, the students formed more specific and targeted questions during class, and this generated greater comprehension of the material. The students also scored, on average, higher marks in questions pertaining to topics which had videos assigned to them.Keywords: flipped learning, structural analysis, pre-class videos, engineering education
Procedia PDF Downloads 9015261 Fly ash Contamination in Groundwater and its Implications on Local Climate Change
Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh
Abstract:
Fly ash, a byproduct of coal combustion, has become a prevalent environmental concern due to its potential impact on both groundwater quality and local climate change. This study aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the various mechanisms through which fly ash contaminates groundwater, as well as the possible consequences of this contamination on local climate change. The presence of fly ash in groundwater not only poses a risk to human health but also has the potential to influence local climate change through complex interactions. Although fly ash has various applications in construction and other industries, improper disposal and lack of containment measures have led to its infiltration into groundwater systems. Through a comprehensive review of existing literature and case studies, the interactions between fly ash and groundwater systems, assess the effects on hydrology, and discuss the implications for the broader climate. This section reviews the pathways through which fly ash enters groundwater, including leaching from disposal sites, infiltration through soil, and migration from surface water bodies. The physical and chemical characteristics of fly ash that contribute to its mobility and persistence in groundwater. The introduction of fly ash into groundwater can alter its chemical composition, leading to an increase in the concentration of heavy metals, metalloids, and other potentially toxic elements. The mechanisms of contaminant transport and highlight the potential risks to human health and ecosystems. Fly ash contamination in groundwater may influence the hydrological cycle through changes in groundwater recharge, discharge, and flow dynamics. This section examines the implications of altered hydrology on local water availability, aquatic habitats, and overall ecosystem health. The presence of fly ash in groundwater may have direct and indirect effects on local climate change. The role of fly ash as a potent greenhouse gas absorber and its contribution to radiative forcing. Additionally, investigation of the possible feedback mechanisms between groundwater contamination and climate change, such as altered vegetation patterns and changes in local temperature and precipitation patterns. In this section, potential mitigation and remediation techniques to minimize fly ash contamination in groundwater are analyzed. These may include improved waste management practices, engineered barriers, groundwater remediation technologies, and sustainable fly ash utilization. This paper highlights the critical link between fly ash contamination in groundwater and its potential contribution to local climate change. It emphasizes the importance of addressing this issue promptly through a combination of preventive measures, effective management strategies, and continuous monitoring. By understanding the interconnections between fly ash contamination, groundwater quality, and local climate, towards creating a more resilient and sustainable environment for future generations. The findings of this research can assist policymakers and environmental managers in formulating sustainable strategies to mitigate fly ash contamination and minimize its contribution to climate change.Keywords: groundwater, climate, sustainable environment, fly ash contamination
Procedia PDF Downloads 8715260 Maintaining User-Level Security in Short Message Service
Authors: T. Arudchelvam, W. W. E. N. Fernando
Abstract:
Mobile phone has become as an essential thing in our life. Therefore, security is the most important thing to be considered in mobile communication. Short message service is the cheapest way of communication via the mobile phones. Therefore, security is very important in the short message service as well. This paper presents a method to maintain the security at user level. Different types of encryption methods are used to implement the user level security in mobile phones. Caesar cipher, Rail Fence, Vigenere cipher and RSA are used as encryption methods in this work. Caesar cipher and the Rail Fence methods are enhanced and implemented. The beauty in this work is that the user can select the encryption method and the key. Therefore, by changing the encryption method and the key time to time, the user can ensure the security of messages. By this work, while users can safely send/receive messages, they can save their information from unauthorised and unwanted people in their own mobile phone as well.Keywords: SMS, user level security, encryption, decryption, short message service, mobile communication
Procedia PDF Downloads 39615259 Scientific Perspectives on Autism Over Time
Authors: Gian Marco Di Feo
Abstract:
Purpose: The study was conducted to examine changes in the beliefs and contents of articles on autism since the mid-twentieth century. Characteristics analyzed were the mentioning of pharmaceutical drugs, country, and institution of the first author, methodologies used, journal, and the year of publication. Methods: All articles (N=566) analyzed were published between January 1st, 1943 and December 31st, 2021. Inter rater reliability was assessed and there was a 94.4 percent agreement amongst raters. All articles were analyzed through both PubMed and PsycInfo. Results: A one way chi square indicated that there was a significant number of articles expressing mixed beliefs on the cause of autism. Scientific perspectives on the cause of autism have changed significantly over time. Particularly, the belief of empiricism (environmental factors) has decreased significantly, while both mixed beliefs and nativism have increased remarkably. Additionally, the mentioning of pharmaceutical drugs is involved with the beliefs on the cause of autism. Conclusion: Articles in the twenty first century are most likely to express both nativist and empiricist viewpoints on the cause of autism. Articles that express mixed beliefs are most likely to mention drugs in their study. The results impact scientific self-understanding on autism and beliefs in high-income countries, and advance scientific understanding globally.Keywords: autism, beliefs, nativism, empiricism, nature, nurture
Procedia PDF Downloads 7215258 A Review on Comparative Analysis of Path Planning and Collision Avoidance Algorithms
Authors: Divya Agarwal, Pushpendra S. Bharti
Abstract:
Autonomous mobile robots (AMR) are expected as smart tools for operations in every automation industry. Path planning and obstacle avoidance is the backbone of AMR as robots have to reach their goal location avoiding obstacles while traversing through optimized path defined according to some criteria such as distance, time or energy. Path planning can be classified into global and local path planning where environmental information is known and unknown/partially known, respectively. A number of sensors are used for data collection. A number of algorithms such as artificial potential field (APF), rapidly exploring random trees (RRT), bidirectional RRT, Fuzzy approach, Purepursuit, A* algorithm, vector field histogram (VFH) and modified local path planning algorithm, etc. have been used in the last three decades for path planning and obstacle avoidance for AMR. This paper makes an attempt to review some of the path planning and obstacle avoidance algorithms used in the field of AMR. The review includes comparative analysis of simulation and mathematical computations of path planning and obstacle avoidance algorithms using MATLAB 2018a. From the review, it could be concluded that different algorithms may complete the same task (i.e. with a different set of instructions) in less or more time, space, effort, etc.Keywords: path planning, obstacle avoidance, autonomous mobile robots, algorithms
Procedia PDF Downloads 23215257 Optimization of Dissolution of Chevreul’s Salt in Ammonium Chloride Solutions
Authors: Mustafa Sertçelik, Hacali Necefoğlu, Turan Çalban, Soner Kuşlu
Abstract:
In this study, Chevreul’s salt was dissolved in ammonium chloride solutions. All experiments were performed in a batch reactor. The obtained results were optimized. Parameters used in the experiments were the reaction temperature, the ammonium chloride concentration, the reaction time and the solid-to-liquid ratio. The optimum conditions were determined by 24 factorial experimental design method. The best values of four parameters were determined as based on the experiment results. After the evaluation of experiment results, all parameters were found as effective in experiment conditions selected. The optimum conditions on the maximum Chevreul’s salt dissolution were the ammonium chloride concentration 4.5 M, the reaction time 13.2 min., the reaction temperature 25 oC, and the solid-to-liquid ratio 9/80 g.mL-1. The best dissolution yield in these conditions was 96.20%.Keywords: Chevreul's salt, factorial experimental design method, ammonium chloride, dissolution, optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 24615256 Mechanical Properties of Lithium-Ion Battery at Different Packing Angles Under Impact Loading
Authors: Wei Zhao, Yuxuan Yao, Hao Chen
Abstract:
In order to find out the mechanical properties and failure behavior of lithium-ion batteries, drop hammer impact experiments and finite element simulations are carried out on batteries with different packed angles. Firstly, a drop hammer impact experiment system, which is based on the DHR-1808 drop hammer and oscilloscope, is established, and then a drop test of individual batteries and packed angles of 180 ° and 120 ° are carried out. The image of battery deformation, force-time curve and voltage-time curve are recorded. Secondly, finite element models of individual batteries and two packed angles are established, and the results of the test and simulation are compared. Finally, the mechanical characteristics and failure behavior of lithium-ion battery modules with the packed arrangement of 6 * 6 and packing angles of 180 °, 120 °, 90 ° and 60 ° are analyzed under the same velocity with different battery packing angles, and the same impact energy with different impact velocity and different packing angles. The result shows that the individual battery is destroyed completely in the drop hammer impact test with an initial impact velocity of 3m/s and drop height of 459mm, and the voltage drops to close to 0V when the test ends. The voltage drops to 12V when packed angle of 180°, and 3.6V when packed angle of 120°. It is found that the trend of the force-time curve between simulation and experiment is generally consistent. The difference in maximum peak value is 3.9kN for a packing angle of 180° and 1.3kN for a packing angle of 120°. Under the same impact velocity and impact energy, the strain rate of the battery module with a packing angle of 180° is the lowest, and the maximum stress can reach 26.7MPa with no battery short-circuited. The research under our experiment and simulation shows that the lithium-ion battery module with a packing angle of 180 ° is the least likely to be damaged, which can sustain the maximum stress under the same impact load.Keywords: battery module, finite element simulation, power battery, packing angle
Procedia PDF Downloads 7015255 Landfill Leachate and Settled Domestic Wastewater Co-Treatment Using Activated Carbon in Sequencing Batch Reactors
Authors: Amin Mojiri, Hamidi Abdul Aziz
Abstract:
Leachate is created while water penetrates through the waste in a landfill, carrying some forms of pollutants. In literature, for treatment of wastewater and leachate, different ways of biological treatment were used. Sequencing batch reactor (SBR) is a kind of biological treatment. This study investigated the co-treatment of landfill leachate and domestic waste water by SBR and powdered activated carbon augmented (PAC) SBR process. The response surface methodology (RSM) and central composite design (CCD) were employed. The independent variables were aeration rate (L/min), contact time (h), and the ratio of leachate to wastewater mixture (%; v/v)). To perform an adequate analysis of the aerobic process, three dependent parameters, i.e. COD, color, and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N or NH4-N) were measured as responses. The findings of the study indicated that the PAC-SBR showed a higher performance in elimination of certain pollutants, in comparison with SBR. With the optimal conditions of aeration rate (0.6 L/min), leachate to waste water ratio (20%), and contact time (10.8 h) for the PAC-SBR, the removal efficiencies for color, NH3-N, and COD were 72.8%, 98.5%, and 65.2%, respectively.Keywords: co-treatment, landfill Leachate, wastewater, sequencing batch reactor, activate carbon
Procedia PDF Downloads 46615254 An Automated Bender Element System Used for S-Wave Velocity Tomography during Model Pile Installation
Authors: Yuxin Wu, Yu-Shing Wang, Zitao Zhang
Abstract:
A high-speed and time-lapse S-wave velocity measurement system has been built up for S-wave tomography in sand. This system is based on bender elements and applied to model pile tests in a tailor-made pressurized chamber to monitor the shear wave velocity distribution during pile installation in sand. Tactile pressure sensors are used parallel together with bender elements to monitor the stress changes during the tests. Strain gages are used to monitor the shaft resistance and toe resistance of pile. Since the shear wave velocity (Vs) is determined by the shear modulus of sand and the shaft resistance of pile is also influenced by the shear modulus of sand around the pile, the purposes of this study are to time-lapse monitor the S-wave velocity distribution change at a certain horizontal section during pile installation and to correlate the S-wave velocity distribution and shaft resistance of pile in sand.Keywords: bender element, pile, shaft resistance, shear wave velocity, tomography
Procedia PDF Downloads 42915253 Landscape Pattern Evolution and Optimization Strategy in Wuhan Urban Development Zone, China
Abstract:
With the rapid development of urbanization process in China, its environmental protection pressure is severely tested. So, analyzing and optimizing the landscape pattern is an important measure to ease the pressure on the ecological environment. This paper takes Wuhan Urban Development Zone as the research object, and studies its landscape pattern evolution and quantitative optimization strategy. First, remote sensing image data from 1990 to 2015 were interpreted by using Erdas software. Next, the landscape pattern index of landscape level, class level, and patch level was studied based on Fragstats. Then five indicators of ecological environment based on National Environmental Protection Standard of China were selected to evaluate the impact of landscape pattern evolution on the ecological environment. Besides, the cost distance analysis of ArcGIS was applied to simulate wildlife migration thus indirectly measuring the improvement of ecological environment quality. The result shows that the area of land for construction increased 491%. But the bare land, sparse grassland, forest, farmland, water decreased 82%, 47%, 36%, 25% and 11% respectively. They were mainly converted into construction land. On landscape level, the change of landscape index all showed a downward trend. Number of patches (NP), Landscape shape index (LSI), Connection index (CONNECT), Shannon's diversity index (SHDI), Aggregation index (AI) separately decreased by 2778, 25.7, 0.042, 0.6, 29.2%, all of which indicated that the NP, the degree of aggregation and the landscape connectivity declined. On class level, the construction land and forest, CPLAND, TCA, AI and LSI ascended, but the Distribution Statistics Core Area (CORE_AM) decreased. As for farmland, water, sparse grassland, bare land, CPLAND, TCA and DIVISION, the Patch Density (PD) and LSI descended, yet the patch fragmentation and CORE_AM increased. On patch level, patch area, Patch perimeter, Shape index of water, farmland and bare land continued to decline. The three indexes of forest patches increased overall, sparse grassland decreased as a whole, and construction land increased. It is obvious that the urbanization greatly influenced the landscape evolution. Ecological diversity and landscape heterogeneity of ecological patches clearly dropped. The Habitat Quality Index continuously declined by 14%. Therefore, optimization strategy based on greenway network planning is raised for discussion. This paper contributes to the study of landscape pattern evolution in planning and design and to the research on spatial layout of urbanization.Keywords: landscape pattern, optimization strategy, ArcGIS, Erdas, landscape metrics, landscape architecture
Procedia PDF Downloads 16615252 Statistical Analysis of the Main Causes of Delay Factors of Infrastructure Projects
Authors: Seyed Ali Mohammadiborna, Mehdi Ravanshadnia
Abstract:
Project delays usually detrimentally affect perceptions of project success and can in some instances, result in increased costs and other time-related damages to project stakeholders. One of the realities in the national infrastructure projects is that since the primary stakeholders are state-affiliated, the delay factors of the projects have not been seriously taken into account despite the importance of on-time completion of projects. Project postponement has different economic and social consequences and leads to the technical and economic infeasibility of the infrastructure projects in the form of reduced productivity and exploitation capacity. The present study aimed at investigating delay factors of Iranian national infrastructure projects according to regulatory reports of the Plan and Budget Organization (BPO) of Iran. The present study scrutinized the influence of each of the factors that caused delays in national Iranian infrastructure projects according to the supervision reports of the planning and budget organization in 8 years. For this purpose, the study analyzed the information regarding the impact of 12 key delay factors causing delays in average 4867 projects per year in all provinces. The said factors were classified into the three groups of executive, credit, and financial and environmental-procurement factors.Keywords: delays, infrastructure, projects, regulatory
Procedia PDF Downloads 13715251 Differences in the Processing of Sentences with Lexical Ambiguity and Structural Ambiguity: An Experimental Study
Authors: Mariana T. Teixeira, Joana P. Luz
Abstract:
This paper is based on assumptions of psycholinguistics and investigates the processing of ambiguous sentences in Brazilian Portuguese. Specifically, it aims to verify if there is a difference in processing time between sentences with lexical ambiguity and sentences with structural (or syntactic) ambiguity. We hypothesize, based on the Garden Path Theory, that the two types of ambiguity entail different cognitive efforts, since sentences with structural ambiguity require that two structures be processed, whereas ambiguous phrases whose root of ambiguity is in a word require the processing of a single structure, which admits a variation of punctual meaning, within the scope of only one lexical item. In order to test this hypothesis, 25 undergraduate students, whose average age was 27.66 years, native speakers of Brazilian Portuguese, performed a self-monitoring reading task of ambiguous sentences, which had lexical and structural ambiguity. The results suggest that unambiguous sentence processing is faster than ambiguous sentence processing, whether it has lexical or structural ambiguity. In addition, participants presented a mean reading time greater for sentences with syntactic ambiguity than for sentences with lexical ambiguity, evidencing a greater cognitive effort in sentence processing with structural ambiguity.Keywords: Brazilian portuguese, lexical ambiguity, sentence processing, syntactic ambiguity
Procedia PDF Downloads 22815250 Enhancing Tower Crane Safety: A UAV-based Intelligent Inspection Approach
Authors: Xin Jiao, Xin Zhang, Jian Fan, Zhenwei Cai, Yiming Xu
Abstract:
Tower cranes play a crucial role in the construction industry, facilitating the vertical and horizontal movement of materials and aiding in building construction, especially for high-rise structures. However, tower crane accidents can lead to severe consequences, highlighting the importance of effective safety management and inspection. This paper presents an innovative approach to tower crane inspection utilizing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and an Intelligent Inspection APP System. The system leverages UAVs equipped with high-definition cameras to conduct efficient and comprehensive inspections, reducing manual labor, inspection time, and risk. By integrating advanced technologies such as Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning and digital image processing, the system enables precise route planning and collection of safety hazards images. A case study conducted on a construction site demonstrates the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method, showcasing its potential to enhance tower crane safety. On-site testing of UAV intelligent inspections reveals key findings: efficient tower crane hazard inspection within 30 minutes, with a full-identification capability coverage rates of 76.3%, 64.8%, and 76.2% for major, significant, and general hazards respectively and a preliminary-identification capability coverage rates of 18.5%, 27.2%, and 19%, respectively. Notably, UAVs effectively identify various tower crane hazards, except for those requiring auditory detection. The limitations of this study primarily involve two aspects: Firstly, during the initial inspection, manual drone piloting is required for marking tower crane points, followed by automated flight inspections and reuse based on the marked route. Secondly, images captured by the drone necessitate manual identification and review, which can be time-consuming for equipment management personnel, particularly when dealing with a large volume of images. Subsequent research efforts will focus on AI training and recognition of safety hazard images, as well as the automatic generation of inspection reports and corrective management based on recognition results. The ongoing development in this area is currently in progress, and outcomes will be released at an appropriate time.Keywords: tower crane, inspection, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), intelligent inspection app system, safety management
Procedia PDF Downloads 4215249 Semi-Automatic Segmentation of Mitochondria on Transmission Electron Microscopy Images Using Live-Wire and Surface Dragging Methods
Authors: Mahdieh Farzin Asanjan, Erkan Unal Mumcuoglu
Abstract:
Mitochondria are cytoplasmic organelles of the cell, which have a significant role in the variety of cellular metabolic functions. Mitochondria act as the power plants of the cell and are surrounded by two membranes. Significant morphological alterations are often due to changes in mitochondrial functions. A powerful technique in order to study the three-dimensional (3D) structure of mitochondria and its alterations in disease states is Electron microscope tomography. Detection of mitochondria in electron microscopy images due to the presence of various subcellular structures and imaging artifacts is a challenging problem. Another challenge is that each image typically contains more than one mitochondrion. Hand segmentation of mitochondria is tedious and time-consuming and also special knowledge about the mitochondria is needed. Fully automatic segmentation methods lead to over-segmentation and mitochondria are not segmented properly. Therefore, semi-automatic segmentation methods with minimum manual effort are required to edit the results of fully automatic segmentation methods. Here two editing tools were implemented by applying spline surface dragging and interactive live-wire segmentation tools. These editing tools were applied separately to the results of fully automatic segmentation. 3D extension of these tools was also studied and tested. Dice coefficients of 2D and 3D for surface dragging using splines were 0.93 and 0.92. This metric for 2D and 3D for live-wire method were 0.94 and 0.91 respectively. The root mean square symmetric surface distance values of 2D and 3D for surface dragging was measured as 0.69, 0.93. The same metrics for live-wire tool were 0.60 and 2.11. Comparing the results of these editing tools with the results of automatic segmentation method, it shows that these editing tools, led to better results and these results were more similar to ground truth image but the required time was higher than hand-segmentation timeKeywords: medical image segmentation, semi-automatic methods, transmission electron microscopy, surface dragging using splines, live-wire
Procedia PDF Downloads 16915248 Comparative Analysis of Teachers’ Performance in Private and Public Primary Schools in Oyo State, Nigeria
Authors: Oyetunji John Adenuga
Abstract:
This study on the comparative analysis of the performance of teachers in private and public schools was carried out in Ibadan North West Local Government Area of Oyo State. This study examined the justification for the claim that there is difference in the performance of teachers in private and public primary schools and at the same time identified factors responsible for the difference in the performance of these teachers. A descriptive survey research design was used for the study. Data generated were analysed using t-test and regression analysis. The findings of the study revealed that there is significant difference in the performance of teachers in private and private primary schools in Ibadan North West Local Government Area of Oyo State (t=64.09; df=459; p,.05). The findings also revealed that the method of teaching in private primary schools is significantly different from the method of teaching in public primary schools in Ibadan North West Local Government Area of Oyo State (t=73.08; df=459; p,.05). Findings revealed that school leadership and management have significant contribution on the performance of private and public primary school teachers in Ibadan North West Local Area of Oyo State. Based on the finding, the following recommendations were made: Primary school teachers need to be motivated and rewarded for excellent performance. Primary schools should be properly equipped with teaching-aid facilities, laboratories and libraries. Government should use the findings of this study to improve on teaching materials provided to the primary school teachers in Nigeria. Public primary schools should be designed by education planners, administrators and government. Headmasters, proprietors and teachers of primary schools should look inward and give a performance appraisal and evaluation of themselves form time to time based on subject they taught. Finally, school administrators should be conscious of the way they manage the teachers in schools not only in informal situations but also in formal settings.Keywords: private education, public education, school leadership, school management, teachers performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 34215247 Strategic Interventions to Combat Socio-economic Impacts of Drought in Thar - A Case Study of Nagarparkar
Authors: Anila Hayat
Abstract:
Pakistan is one of those developing countries that are least involved in emissions but has the most vulnerable environmental conditions. Pakistan is ranked 8th in most affected countries by climate change on the climate risk index 1992-2011. Pakistan is facing severe water shortages and flooding as a result of changes in rainfall patterns, specifically in the least developed areas such as Tharparkar. Nagarparkar, once an attractive tourist spot located in Tharparkar because of its tropical desert climate, is now facing severe drought conditions for the last few decades. This study investigates the present socio-economic situation of local communities, major impacts of droughts and their underlying causes and current mitigation strategies adopted by local communities. The study uses both secondary (quantitative in nature) and primary (qualitative in nature) methods to understand the impacts and explore causes on the socio-economic life of local communities of the study area. The relevant data has been collected through household surveys using structured questionnaires, focus groups and in-depth interviews of key personnel from local and international NGOs to explore the sensitivity of impacts and adaptation to droughts in the study area. This investigation is limited to four rural communities of union council Pilu of Nagarparkar district, including Bheel, BhojaBhoon, Mohd Rahan Ji Dhani and Yaqub Ji Dhani villages. The results indicate that drought has caused significant economic and social hardships for the local communities as more than 60% of the overall population is dependent on rainfall which has been disturbed by irregular rainfall patterns. The decline in Crop yields has forced the local community to migrate to nearby areas in search of livelihood opportunities. Communities have not undertaken any appropriate adaptive actions to counteract the adverse effect of drought; they are completely dependent on support from the government and external aid for survival. Respondents also reported that poverty is a major cause of their vulnerability to drought. An increase in population, limited livelihood opportunities, caste system, lack of interest from the government sector, unawareness shaped their vulnerability to drought and other social issues. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the local authorities shall create awareness about drought hazards and improve the resilience of communities against drought. It is further suggested to develop, introduce and implement water harvesting practices at the community level to promote drought-resistant crops.Keywords: migration, vulnerability, awareness, Drought
Procedia PDF Downloads 13215246 Monitoring Saltwater Corrosion on Steel Samples Using Coda Wave Interferometry in MHZ Frequencies
Authors: Maxime Farin, Emmanuel Moulin, Lynda Chehami, Farouk Benmeddour, Pierre Campistron
Abstract:
Assessing corrosion is crucial in the petrochemical and marine industry. Usual ultrasonic methods based on guided waves to detect corrosion can inspect large areas but lack precision. We propose a complementary and sensitive ultrasonic method (~ 10 MHz) based on coda wave interferometry to detect and quantify corrosion at the surface of a steel sample. The method relies on a single piezoelectric transducer, exciting the sample and measuring the scattered coda signals at different instants in time. A laboratory experiment is conducted with a steel sample immersed in salted water for 60~h with parallel coda and temperature measurements to correct coda dependence to temperature variations. Micrometric changes to the sample surface caused by corrosion are detected in the late coda signals, allowing precise corrosion detection. Moreover, a good correlation is found between a parameter quantifying the temperature-corrected stretching of the coda over time with respect to a reference without corrosion and the corrosion surface over the sample recorded with a camera.Keywords: coda wave interferometry, nondestructive evaluation, corrosion, ultrasonics
Procedia PDF Downloads 23415245 Effect of Smoking on Tear Break-Up Time and Basal Tear Secretion
Authors: Kalsoom Rani
Abstract:
Tobacco contains nicotine, which causes addiction to many toxic chemicals. In the world, people consume it in the form of smoke, chew, and sniffing, smoke of it is composed of almost 7000 active chemicals, which are very harmful to human health as well as for eye health, inhalation of tobacco smoke and fumes can accelerate and cause many blinding eye diseases. Dry eye and smoking have not been covered extensively in researches; more studies are required to unveil the relationship between smoking and dry eye. This study was conducted to determine the quantity and quality of tears in smokers. 60 subjects participated in the study, which was divided into two groups on the basis of consumption of cigarettes per day with age matched non smokers of 15-50 years. All participants have gone through a study based questioner, eye examination, and diagnostic 'Dry Eye Tests' for evaporative tears evaluation and measurement of basal tear secretion. Subjects were included in the criteria of 10 cigarettes per day with a minimum duration of 1 year; passive smokers for control groups were excluded. The study was carried out in a Medina Teaching Hospital, Faisalabad, Pakistan, ophthalmology department for the duration of 8 months. Mean values for tear break up time (TBUT), was reported 10sec with SD of +3.74 in controlled group, 5sec with SD + 2.32 in smokers and 4sec SD +3.77 heavy smokers in right eye (RE) and left eye (LE) 10.35sec with SD of +3.88 in controlled 5sec with SD + 2.3 in smokers and much reduced TBUT in heavy smokers was 3.85sec SD+2.20. Smoking has a very strong association with TRUT with a significance of P=.00 both eyes. Mean Schirmer-I value of the subjects was reported 12.6mm with SD + 8.37 in RE and 12.59mm with SD + 8.96 LE. The mean Schirmer-II test value was reported in the right, and left eye with a mean value for control was 20.23mm with SD + 8.93, 20.75mm with SD + 8.84 respectively, and in Smokers 9.90mm with SD + 5.74, and 10.07mm with SD + 6.98, and in heavy smokers 7.7mm, SD + 3.22 and 6.9, SD + 3.50 mm, association with smoking showed p=.001 in RE and .003 in LE. Smoking has deteriorated effect on both evaporative tear and aqueous tear secretion and causing symptoms of dry eye burning, itching, redness, and watering with epithelial cell damage.Keywords: tear break-up time, basal tear secretion, smokers, dry eye
Procedia PDF Downloads 12615244 Static Priority Approach to Under-Frequency Based Load Shedding Scheme in Islanded Industrial Networks: Using the Case Study of Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd - FFL
Authors: S. H. Kazmi, T. Ahmed, K. Javed, A. Ghani
Abstract:
In this paper static scheme of under-frequency based load shedding is considered for chemical and petrochemical industries with islanded distribution networks relying heavily on the primary commodity to ensure minimum production loss, plant downtime or critical equipment shutdown. A simplistic methodology is proposed for in-house implementation of this scheme using underfrequency relays and a step by step guide is provided including the techniques to calculate maximum percentage overloads, frequency decay rates, time based frequency response and frequency based time response of the system. Case study of FFL electrical system is utilized, presenting the actual system parameters and employed load shedding settings following the similar series of steps. The arbitrary settings are then verified for worst overload conditions (loss of a generation source in this case) and comprehensive system response is then investigated.Keywords: islanding, under-frequency load shedding, frequency rate of change, static UFLS
Procedia PDF Downloads 48615243 Exchange Rate Forecasting by Econometric Models
Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir
Abstract:
The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD
Procedia PDF Downloads 562