Search results for: Markov chains

Authors: Jens Ehm

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Manufacturing in supply chains requires an efficient organisation of production and transport processes in order to guarantee the supply of all partners within the chain with the material that is needed for the reliable fulfilment of tasks. If one partner is not able to supply products for a certain period, these products might be missing as the working material for the customer to perform the next manufacturing step, potentially as supply for further manufacturing steps. This way, local disruptions can influence the whole supply chain. In order to avoid material shortages, an efficient scheduling of tasks is necessary. However, the occurrence of unexpected disruptions cannot be eliminated, so that a modification of the schedule should be arranged as fast as possible. This paper discusses the challenges for the implementation of real-time scheduling and control methods and presents a graph-based approach that enables the integrated scheduling of production and transport processes for multiple supply chain partners and offers the potential for quick adaptations to parts of the initial schedule.

Keywords: production, logistics, integrated scheduling, real-time scheduling

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Authors: Esra Alveroglu Durucu, Kenan Koc

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In this study, we synthesized and characterized nano-sized Poly- N-isopropylacrylamide (PNIPAM) hydrogels. N-isopropylacrylamide (NIPAM) micro and macro gels are known as a thermosensitive colloidal structure, and they respond to changes in the environmental conditions such as temperature and pH. Here, nano-sized gels were synthesized via precipitation copolymerization method. N,N-methylenebisacrylamide (BIS) and ammonium persulfate APS were used as crosslinker and initiator, respectively. 8-Hydroxypyrene-1,3,6- trisulfonic Acid (Pyranine, Py) molecules were used for arranging the particle size and thus physical properties of the nano-sized hydrogels. Fluorescence spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy and light scattering methods were used for characterizing the synthesized hydrogels. The results show that the gel size was decreased with increasing amount of ionic molecule from 550 to 140 nm due to the electrostatic behavior of the ionic side groups of pyranine. Light scattering experiments demonstrate that lower critical solution temperature (LCST) of the gels shifts to the lower temperature with decreasing size of gel due to the hydrophobicity–hydrophilicity balance of the polymer chains.

Keywords: hydrogels, lower critical solution temperature, nanogels, poly(n-isopropylacrylamide)

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Authors: Mohammad Ebrahim Arbabian

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This paper investigates the impact of 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing, on a multi-item supply chain comprising a manufacturer and retailer. Operating under a wholesale-price contract and catering to stochastic customer demand, this study delves into the largely unexplored realm of how 3D printing technology reshapes supply chain dynamics. A distinguishing aspect of 3D printing is its versatility in producing various product types, yet its slower production pace compared to traditional methods poses a challenge. We analyze the trade-off between 3D printing's limited capacity and its enhancement of production flexibility. By delineating the economic circumstances favoring 3D printing adoption by the manufacturer, we establish the Stackelberg equilibrium in the retailer-manufacturer game. Additionally, we determine optimal order quantities for the retailer considering 3D printing as an option for the manufacturer, ascertain optimal wholesale prices in the presence of 3D printing, and compute optimal profits for both parties involved in the supply chain.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, supply chain management, contract theory, Stackelberg game, optimization

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Authors: Fatiha Naaoui-Outini

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to shed light on how a Downstream Supply Chain facilitated the Customer Service Performance (BTB) by more collaborative practices between the different stakeholders in the chain. Methodology/approach – The paper developed a theoretical framework and conducted a qualitative exploratory study approach based on six semi-structured interviews with two international groups in the distribution sector with the aim of understanding and analyzing how companies have changed their supply chains to ensure optimal customer service. Findings/Implications – The study contributes to the Global Supply Chain Management and Collaboration literature by integrating the role of the downstream supply chain into research that may actually influence customer service performance on BTB. Our findings also provide firms with some guidelines on building successful downstream supply chain collaboration and a significant influence on customer service performance in BTB. Because of the exploratory nature of the study approach, the research results are limited to the data collected, and these preliminary findings require further confirmation.

Keywords: customer service performance (B2B), global supply chain, downstream supply collaboration, qualitative case study

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Authors: Gaurav Verma

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Organoclay loaded (0-5 weight %) polyester-urethane (PU) coatings were prepared with a branched hydroxyl-bearing polyester and an aliphatic poly-isocyanate. TEM micrographs show partial exfoliation and intercalation of clay platelets in organoclay-polyester dispersions. AFM surface images reveals that the PU hard domains tend to regularise and also self-organise into spherical shapes of sizes 50 nm (0 wt %), 60 nm (2 wt %) and 190 nm (4 wt %) respectively. IR analysis shows that PU chains have increasing tendency to interact with exfoliated clay platelets through hydrogen bonding. This interaction strengthens inter-chain linkages in PU matrix and hence improves anti-ageing properties. 1000 hours of accelerated weathering was evaluated by ATR spectroscopy, while yellowing and overall discoloration was quantified by the Δb* and ΔE* values of the CIELab colour scale. Post-weathering surface properties also showed improvement as the loss of thickness and reduction in gloss in neat PU was 25% and 42%; while it was just 3.5% and 14% respectively for the 2 wt% nanocomposite coating. This work highlights the importance of modifying surface and bulk properties of PU coatings at nanoscale, which led to improved performance in accelerated weathering conditions.

Keywords: coatings, AFM, ageing, spectroscopy

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Authors: Roman Kalvin, Saba Arif, Anam Nadeem, Burhan Ali Ghumman, Juntakan Taweekun

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Bicycles are important parts of the transportation industry. In the current world, use of sprocket is very high on bicycles these days. Sprocket and chains are important parts of the transmission of power in the bicycle. However, transmission of power is highly dependent on sprocket design. In conventional bicycles, sprockets are made up of mild steel which undergoes wear and tears with the passage of time due to high pressures applied on it. In the current research, a new sprocket is designed by changing its structure and material to carbon fiber from mild steel. The existing sprocket of a bicycle is compared with the new and modified sprocket design. However, new design has structural and material changes as well. According to the results, in carbon fiber, sprocket deformation is 0.091 mm while sprocket stress value is 371.13N/mm². Also, comparison based analysis is done by physical testing and software analysis. There is 8.1% variation in software and experimental results of steel. Additionally, the difference between both methods comes 8 to 9%. This improved design can be used in future for more durability and long run timings for bicycles.

Keywords: sprocket, mild steel, drafting, stress, deformation

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Authors: Dharamvir Mangal

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Supply chain management has increasingly become an inevitable challenge to most companies to continuously survive and prosper in the global chain-based competitive environment. The current challenges of the Indian automotive world, their implications on supply chain are summarized and analyzed in this paper. In this competitive era of ‘LPG’ i.e. Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization, modern marketing systems, introduction of products with short life cycles, and the discriminating expectations of customers have enforced business enterprises to invest in and focus attention on their Supply Chains (SCs) in order to meet out the level of customer’s satisfaction and to survive in the competitive market. In fact, many of trends in the auto industry are reinforcing the need to redefine supply chain strategies layouts, and operations etc. Many manufacturing operations are designed to maximize throughput and lower costs with modest considerations for the crash on inventory levels and distribution capabilities. To improve profitability and efficiency, automotive players are seeking ways to achieve operational excellence, reduce operating cost and enhance customer service through efficient supply chain management.

Keywords: automotive industry, supply chain, challenges, market potential

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Authors: Faisal Bin Alam

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Most of the manufacturing entities cause negative footprint to nature that demand due attention. Textile industries have one of the longest supply chains and bear the liability of significant environmental impact to our planet. Issues of environmental safety, scarcity of energy and resources, and demand for eco-friendly products have driven research to search for safe and suitable alternatives in apparel processing. Consumer awareness, increased pressure from fashion brands and actions from local legislative authorities have somewhat been able to improve the practices. Objective of this paper is to reveal the best selection of raw materials and methods of production, taking environmental sustainability into account. Methodology used in this study is exploratory in nature based on personal experience, field visits in the factories of Bangladesh and secondary sources. Findings are limited to exploring better alternatives to conventional operations of a Readymade Garment manufacturing, from fibre selection to final product delivery, therefore showing some ways of achieving greener environment in the supply chain of a clothing industry.

Keywords: textile and apparel, environmental sustainability, supply chain, production, clothing

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Authors: Sunil M. Gaikwad, Yogesh J. Koli, Gopal A. Raut, Ganesh P. Bhawane

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The present investigation was directed to study the diversity of short-horned grasshoppers from a forested area of Kolhapur district, Maharashtra, India, which is spread along the hilly terrain of the Northern Western Ghats. The collection was made during 2013 to 2015, and identified with the help of a reference collection of ZSI, Kolkata, and recent literature and dry preserved. The study resulted in the enumeration of 40 species of short-horned grasshoppers belonging to four families of suborder: Caelifera. The family Acrididae was dominant (27 species) followed by Tetrigidae (eight species), Pyrgomorphidae (four species) and Chorotypidae (one species). The report of 40 species from the forest habitat of the study region highlights the significance of the Western Ghats. Ecologically, short-horned grasshoppers are integral to food chains, being consumed by a wide variety of animals. The observations of the present investigation may prove useful for conservation of the Diversity in Northern Western Ghats.

Keywords: diversity, Kolhapur, northern western Ghats, short-horned grasshoppers

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Authors: Francis Mugabi, Kevin Duffy, Joseph J. Y. T Mugisha, Obiora Collins

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Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes, with some of them coexisting in patchy (different) environments, which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Deterministic and stochastic models for r BTV serotypes in n discrete patches connected by midge and/or cattle movement are formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model without midge and cattle movement, using the comparison principle, it is shown that if the patch reproduction number R0 < 1, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,r, all serotypes go extinct. If R^j_i0>1, competitive exclusion takes place. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that when the n patches are connected by midge movement, coexistence takes place. To account for demographic and movement variability, the deterministic model is transformed into a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. Utilizing a multitype branching process, it is shown that the midge movement can have a large effect on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes. The probability of coexistence can be brought to zero when the control interventions that directly kill the adult midges are applied. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement and vector control interventions on the coexistence and control of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Keywords: bluetongue virus, coexistence, multiple serotypes, midge movement, branching process

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Authors: Gulshan Kumar Jawa, Sandeep Mohan Ahuja

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With the increase in industrialization, the presence of heavy metals in wastewater streams has turned into a serious concern for the ecosystem. The metals diffuse through the food chains, causing various health hazards. Conventional methods used to remove these heavy metals from water have some limitations, such as cost, secondary pollution due to sludge formation, recovery of metal, economic viability at low metal concentrations, etc. Many of the biomaterials have been investigated by researchers for the adsorption of heavy metals from water solutions as an alternative technique for the last two decades and have found promising results. In this paper, the batch study on the use of pods of acacia karoo for the adsorption of Cd(II) and Pb(II) from aqueous solutions has been reported. The effect of various parameters on the removal of metal ions, such as pH, contact time, stirring speed, initial metal ion concentration, adsorbent dose, and temperature, have been established to find the optimum parameters through one parameter optimization. Further, kinetic, equilibrium, and thermodynamic studies have been conducted. The pods of acacia karoo have shown great potential for adsorption of Cd(II) and Pb(II) from aqueous solutions and have proven to be a better and more economical alternative for the purpose.

Keywords: adsorption, heavy metals, biomaterials, Cadmium(II), Lead(II), pods of acacia karoo

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Authors: Rabindranath Bag, Surjeet Singh

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Materials in which the electrons are strongly correlated provide some of the most challenging and exciting problems in condensed matter physics today. After the discovery of high critical temperature superconductivity in layered or two-dimensional copper oxides, many physicists got attention in cuprates and it led to an upsurge of interest in the synthesis and physical properties of copper-oxide based material. The quest to understand superconducting mechanism in high-temperature cuprates, drew physicist’s attention to somewhat simpler compounds consisting of spin-chains or one-dimensional lattice of coupled spins. Low-dimensional quantum magnets are of huge contemporary interest in basic sciences as well emerging technologies such as quantum computing and quantum information theory, and heat management in microelectronic devices. Spin ladder is an example of quasi one-dimensional quantum magnets which provides a bridge between one and two dimensional materials. One of the examples of quasi one-dimensional spin-ladder compounds is Sr14Cu24O41, which exhibits a lot of interesting and exciting physical phenomena in low dimensional systems. Very recently, the ladder compound Sr14Cu24O41 was shown to exhibit long-distance quantum entanglement crucial to quantum information theory. Also, it is well known that hole-compensation in this material results in very high (metal-like) anisotropic thermal conductivity at room temperature. These observations suggest that Sr14Cu24O41 is a potential multifunctional material which invites further detailed investigations. To investigate these properties one must needs a large and high quality of single crystal. But these systems are showing incongruently melting behavior, which brings many difficulties to grow a large and quality of single crystals. Hence, we are using TSFZ (Travelling Solvent Floating Zone) method to grow the high quality of single crystals of the low dimensional magnets. Apart from this, it has unique crystal structure (alternating stacks of plane containing edge-sharing CuO2 chains, and the plane containing two-leg Cu2O3 ladder with intermediate Sr layers along the b- axis), which is also incommensurate in nature. It exhibits abundant physical phenomenon such as spin dimerization, crystallization of charge holes and charge density wave. The maximum focus of research so far involved in introducing defects on A-site (Sr). However, apart from the A-site (Sr) doping, there are only few studies in which the B-site (Cu) doping of polycrystalline Sr14Cu24O41 have been discussed and the reason behind this is the possibility of two doping sites for Cu (CuO2 chain and Cu2O3 ladder). Therefore, in our present work, the crystals (pristine and Cu-site doped) were grown by using TSFZ method by tuning the growth parameters. The Laue diffraction images, optical polarized microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) images confirm the quality of the grown crystals. Here, we report the single crystal growth, magnetic and transport properties of Sr14Cu24O41 and its lightly doped variants (magnetic and non-magnetic) containing less than 1% of Co, Ni, Al and Zn impurities. Since, any real system will have some amount of weak disorder, our studies on these ladder compounds with controlled dilute disorder would be significant in the present context.

Keywords: low-dimensional quantum magnets, single crystal, spin-ladder, TSFZ technique

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Authors: Ankita Wadhawan, Parteek Kumar, Umesh Kumar

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Gesture is any body movement that expresses some attitude or any sentiment. Gestures as a sign language are used by deaf people for conveying messages which helps in eliminating the communication barrier between deaf people and normal persons. Nowadays, everybody is using mobile phone and computer as a very important gadget in their life. But there are some physically challenged people who are blind/deaf and the use of mobile phone or computer like device is very difficult for them. So, there is an immense need of a system which works on body gesture or sign language as input. In this research, Microsoft Kinect Sensor, SDK V2 and Hidden Markov Toolkit (HTK) are used to recognize the object, motion of object and human body joints through Touch less NUI (Natural User Interface) in real-time. The depth data collected from Microsoft Kinect has been used to recognize gestures of Indian Sign Language (ISL). The recorded clips are analyzed using depth, IR and skeletal data at different angles and positions. The proposed system has an average accuracy of 85%. The developed Touch less NUI provides an interface to recognize gestures and controls the cursor and click operation in computer just by waving hand gesture. This research will help deaf people to make use of mobile phones, computers and socialize among other persons in the society.

Keywords: gesture recognition, Indian sign language, Microsoft Kinect, natural user interface, sign language

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Authors: Indika Fernando, Jiangang Fei, Roger Stanley, Hossein Enshaei

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Delicate produce such as fresh fruits are increasingly susceptible to physiological damage during the essential post-harvest operations such as transport and handling. Vibration and shock during the distribution are identified factors for produce damage within post-harvest supply chains. Mechanical damages caused during transit may significantly diminish the quality of fresh produce which may also result in a substantial wastage. Bananas are one of the staple fruit crops and the most sold supermarket produce in Australia. It is also the largest horticultural industry in the state of Queensland where 95% of the total production of bananas are cultivated. This results in significantly lengthy interstate supply chains where fruits are exposed to prolonged vibration and shocks. This paper is focused on determining the shock and vibration levels experienced by packaged bananas during transit from the farm gate to the retail market. Tri-axis acceleration data were captured by custom made accelerometer based data loggers which were set to a predetermined sampling rate of 400 Hz. The devices recorded data continuously for 96 Hours in the interstate journey of nearly 3000 Km from the growing fields in far north Queensland to the central distribution centre in Melbourne in Victoria. After the bananas were ripened at the ripening facility in Melbourne, the data loggers were used to capture the transport and handling conditions from the central distribution centre to three retail outlets within the outskirts of Melbourne. The quality of bananas were assessed before and after transport at each location along the supply chain. Time series vibration and shock data were used to determine the frequency and the severity of the transient shocks experienced by the packages. Frequency spectrogram was generated to determine the dominant frequencies within each segment of the post-harvest supply chain. Root Mean Square (RMS) acceleration levels were calculated to characterise the vibration intensity during transport. Data were further analysed by Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and the Power Spectral Density (PSD) profiles were generated to determine the critical frequency ranges. It revealed the frequency range in which the escalated energy levels were transferred to the packages. It was found that the vertical vibration was the highest and the acceleration levels mostly oscillated between ± 1g during transport. Several shock responses were recorded exceeding this range which were mostly attributed to package handling. These detrimental high impact shocks may eventually lead to mechanical damages in bananas such as impact bruising, compression bruising and neck injuries which affect their freshness and visual quality. It was revealed that the frequency range between 0-5 Hz and 15-20 Hz exert an escalated level of vibration energy to the packaged bananas which may result in abrasion damages such as scuffing, fruit rub and blackened rub. Further research is indicated specially in the identified critical frequency ranges to minimise exposure of fruits to the harmful effects of vibration. Improving the handling conditions and also further study on package failure mechanisms when exposed to transient shock excitation will be crucial to improve the visual quality of bananas within the post-harvest supply chain in Australia.

Keywords: bananas, handling, post-harvest, supply chain, shocks, transport, vibration

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Authors: P. Byrnes, F. A. DiazDelaO

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The Support Vector Machine (SVM) has become widely recognised as one of the leading algorithms in machine learning for both regression and binary classification. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions, referred to as support vectors. Despite its popularity amongst practitioners, SVM has some limitations, with the most significant being the generation of point prediction as opposed to predictive distributions. Stemming from this issue, a probabilistic model namely, Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines (PCVM), has been proposed which respects the original functional form of SVM whilst also providing a predictive distribution. As physical system designs become more complex, an increasing number of classification tasks involving industrial applications consist of more than two classes. Consequently, this research proposes a framework which allows for the extension of PCVM to a multi class setting. Additionally, the original PCVM framework relies on the use of type II maximum likelihood to provide estimates for both the kernel hyperparameters and model evidence. In a high dimensional multi class setting, however, this approach has been shown to be ineffective due to bad scaling as the number of classes increases. Accordingly, we propose the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods to provide a posterior distribution over both parameters and hyperparameters. The proposed framework will be validated against current multi class classifiers through synthetic and real life implementations.

Keywords: probabilistic classification vector machines, multi class classification, MCMC, support vector machines

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Authors: Milica Karadzic, Lidija Jevric, Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanovic, Strahinja Kovacevic, Sinisa Markov, Aleksandar Okljesa, Andrea Nikolic, Marija Sakac, Katarina Penov Gasi

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This study considered the microbiological activity determination and molecular docking study for selected steroid derivatives of biomedical importance. Minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) was determined for steroid derivatives against Staphylococcus aureus using macrodilution method. Some of the investigated steroid derivatives express bacteriostatic effect against Staphylococcus aureus. Molecular docking approaches are the most widely used techniques for predicting the binding mode of a ligand. Molecular docking study was done for steroid derivatives for androgen receptor negative prostate cancer cell line (PC-3) toward Human Cytochrome P450 CYP17A1. The molecules that had the smallest experimental IC50 values confirmed their ability to dock into active place using suitable molecular docking procedure. The binding disposition of those molecules was thoroughly investigated. Microbiological analysis and molecular docking study were conducted with aim to additionally characterize selected steroid derivatives for future investigation regarding their biological activity and to estimate the binding-affinities of investigated derivatives. This article is based upon work from COST Action (TD1305), supported by COST (European Cooperation and Science and Technology).

Keywords: binding affinity, minimal inhibitory concentration, molecular docking, pc-3 cell line, staphylococcus aureus, steroids

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Authors: Daihui Zhang, Marie J. Dumont

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A derivative of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) was synthesized for the thiol-Michael addition reaction. The efficiency of the catalysts (base and nucleophiles) and side reactions during the thiol-Michael addition were investigated. Dimethylphenylphosphine efficiently initiated the thiol-Michael addition polymerization for synthesizing a series of bio-based furan polymers with different structure and properties. The benzene rings or hydroxyl groups present in the polymer chains increased the glass transition temperature (Tg) of poly (β-thioether ester). Additionally, copolymers with various compositions were obtained via adding different ratio of 1,6-hexanedithiols to 1,4-benzenedithiols. 1H NMR analysis revealed that experimental ratios of two dithiols monomers matched well with theoretical ratios. The occurrence of a reversible Diels-Alder reaction between furan rings and maleimide groups allowed poly (β-thioether ester) to be dynamically crosslinked. These polymers offer the potentials to produce materials from biomass that have both practical mechanical properties and reprocessing ability.

Keywords: copolymers, Diels-Alder reaction, hydroxymethylfurfural, Thiol-Michael addition

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Authors: Görkem Ülkü, Nesrin Köken, Esin A. Güvel, Nilgün Kızılcan

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Ethoxylated nonyl phenols (ENP) and ceric ammonium nitrate redox systems have been used for the polymerization of vinyl and acrylic monomers. In that case, ENP acted as an organic reducing agent in the presence of Ce (IV) salt and a radical was formed. The polymers obtained with that redox system contained ENP chain ends because the radicals are formed on the reducing molecules. Similar copolymer synthesis has been reported using poly(ethylene oxide) instead of its nonyl phenol terminated derivative, ENP. However, copolymers of poly(ethylene oxide) and conducting polymers synthesized by ferric ions were produced in two steps. Firstly, heteroatoms (pyrrole, thiophene etc.) were attached to the poly(ethylene oxide) chains then copolymerization with heterocyclic monomers was carried out. In this work, ethoxylated nonylphenol (ENP) was reacted with 2-thiophenecarbonyl chloride in order to synthesize a macromonomer containing thienyl end-group (ENP-ThC). Then, copolymers of ENP-ThC and pyrrole were synthesized by chemical oxidative polymerization using iron (III) chloride as an oxidant.

Keywords: end capped polymer, ethoxylated nonylphenol, heterophase polymerization, polypyrrole

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Authors: M. Aruna, Uma Gunasilan

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Hospitals play an ample role in securing the health of a country. Nevertheless, they also have an unhealthy side. Ecological issues strengthen ill-health throughout the domain which subsequently puts pressure on hospital supply chains. Medical waste indeed is hazardous for environment and subsequently for human. The hospital waste management is of immense prominence due to its infectious and hazardous nature that can source many effects on human health and the environment. Government regulations and public cognizance regarding hospital waste issues have imposed hospital units to admit these strategies. The innovative technologies and instruments have been developed to handle hospital wastes. Green supply chain management practices are common in the United States. In India, Green Supply Chain management (GSCM) has just started to be recognized and practiced. GSCM are green, integrated and ecologically optimized. In Green supply chain management environmental sustainability is found to be an important driver. Eleven barriers are identified in this work. Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) technique is used for ranking the obstructions.

Keywords: green supply chain management (GSCM), hospital waste management (HWM), interpretive structural modeling (ISM), medical waste (MW)

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

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Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran

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Authors: Panisa Harnpathananun

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This paper is 'Practical Experience Analysis' which aims to analyze critical obstacles hampering the growth of the functional milk industry and suggest recommendations to overcome those obstacles. Using the Sectoral Innovation System (SIS) along value chain analysis, it is found that restriction in regulation of milk disinfection process, difficulty of dairy entrepreneurs for health claim approval of functional food and beverage and lack of intermediary between entrepreneurs and certified units for certification of functional foods and milk are major causes that needed to be resolved. Consequently, policy recommendations are proposed to tackle the problems occurring throughout the value chain. For the upstream, a collaborative platform using the quadruple helix model is proposed in a pattern of effective dairy cooperatives. For the midstream, regulation issues of new process, extended shelf life (ESL) milk, or prolonged milk are necessary, which can be extended the global market opportunity. For the downstream, mechanism of intermediary between entrepreneurs and certified units can be assisted in certified process of functional milk, especially a process of 'health claim' approval.

Keywords: Thailand, functional milk, supply chain, quadruple helix, intermediary, functional food

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Authors: Ma Chaoyang

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With the acceleration of urbanization, old communities are facing renewal problems such as an aging material environment, declining living quality, and insufficient resilience. The once glorious old communities have become the most vulnerable areas in the city. Through a re-understanding of the ‘disaster chain’ and resilient communities, it is believed that considering the construction of resilient communities during community renewal is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of communities. This article proposes renewal strategies for old communities based on the concept of preventing the occurrence of disaster chains. After analyzing the main demand characteristics of old communities, it proposes a reflection on improving community spatial safety resilience based on the ‘broken chain’ concept. In the four stages of ‘pre-disaster, mid-disaster, and post-disaster’, it elaborates that considering the occurrence of disaster chain in community renewal is the main content of research on spatial safety resilience construction and clarifies that community resilience is the idea and principle of responding with the process of disaster chain. The study focuses on the four dimensions of ‘pre-disaster, mid-disaster, and post-disaster’. This can provide ideas and references for resilience construction in community updates.

Keywords: community updates, disaster chain concept, community resilience, space environment

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Authors: Abas Mohsenzadeh, Tariq Bashir, Waseen Tahir, Ulf Stigh, Mikael Skrifvars, Kim Bolton

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The area of artificial muscles has received significant attention from many research domains including soft robotics, biomechanics and smart textiles in recent years. Poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) has been used to form artificial muscles since it contracts upon heating when under load. In this study, PVDF fibers were produced by melt spinning technique at different solid state draw ratios and then actuation mechanism for PVDF tie molecules within the semicrystalline region of PVDF polymer has been investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. Tie molecules are polymer chains that link two (or more) crystalline regions in semicrystalline polymers. The changes in fiber length upon heating have been investigated using a novel simulation technique. The results show that conformational changes of the tie molecules from the longer all-trans conformation at low temperature (β structure) to the shorter conformation (α structure) at higher temperature accrue by increasing the temperature. These results may be applied to understand the actuation observed for PVDF upon heating.

Keywords: poly(vinylidene fluoride), molecular dynamics, simulation, actuators, tie molecules, semicrystalline

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Authors: Houria Hamitouche, Abdellah Khelifa

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Quaternary ammonium salts (QACs) are the most common cationic surfactants of natural or synthetic origin usually. They possess one or more hydrophobic hydrocarbon chains and hydrophilic cationic group. In fact, the hydrophobic groups are derived from three main sources: petrochemicals, vegetable oils, and animal fats. These QACs have attracted the attention of chemists for a long time, due to their general simple synthesis and their broad application in several fields. They are important as ingredients of cosmetic products and are also used as corrosion inhibitors, in emulsion polymerization and textile processing. Within biological applications, QACs show a good antimicrobial activity and can be used as medicines, gene delivery agents or in DNA extraction methods. The 2004 worldwide annual consumption of QACs was reported as 500,000 tons. The petroleum product is considered a true reservoir of a variety of chemical species, which can be used in the synthesis of quaternary ammonium salts. The purpose of the present contribution is to synthesize the quaternary ammonium salts by Menschutkin reaction, via chloromethylation/quaternization sequences, from Algerian petroleum products namely: reformate, light naphtha and kerosene and characterize.

Keywords: quaternary ammonium salts, reformate, light naphtha, kerosene

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Authors: Khaled S. Abdallah, Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

Abstract:

Moving industries consume numerous resources and dispose masses of used packaging materials. Proper sorting, recycling and disposing the packaging materials is necessary to avoid a sever pollution disaster. This research paper presents a conceptual model to propose sustainable truck rental operations instead of the regular one. An optimization model was developed to select the locations of truck rental centers, collection sites, maintenance and repair sites, and identify the rental fees to be charged for all routes that maximize the total closed supply chain profits. Fixed costs of vehicle purchasing, costs of constructing collection centers and repair centers, as well as the fixed costs paid to use disposal and recycling centers are considered. Operating costs include the truck maintenance, repair costs as well as the cost of recycling and disposing the packing materials, and the costs of relocating the truck are presented in the model. A mixed integer model is developed followed by a simulation model to examine the factors affecting the operation of the model.

Keywords: modeling, truck rental, supply chains management.

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Hesham Abd Elkhalek, Sherif M. Hafez, Yasser M. El Fahham

Abstract:

Allocating limited budget to maintain bridge networks and selecting effective maintenance strategies for each bridge represent challenging tasks for maintenance managers and decision makers. In Egypt, bridges are continuously deteriorating. In many cases, maintenance works are performed due to user complaints. The objective of this paper is to develop a practical and reliable framework to manage the maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities of Bridges network considering performance and budget limits. The model solves an optimization problem that maximizes the average condition of the entire network given the limited available budget using Genetic Algorithm (GA). The framework contains bridge inventory, condition assessment, repair cost calculation, deterioration prediction, and maintenance optimization. The developed model takes into account multiple parameters including serviceability requirements, budget allocation, element importance on structural safety and serviceability, bridge impact on network, and traffic. A questionnaire is conducted to complete the research scope. The proposed model is implemented in software, which provides a friendly user interface. The framework provides a multi-year maintenance plan for the entire network for up to five years. A case study of ten bridges is presented to validate and test the proposed model with data collected from Transportation Authorities in Egypt. Different scenarios are presented. The results are reasonable, feasible and within acceptable domain.

Keywords: bridge management systems (BMS), cost optimization condition assessment, fund allocation, Markov chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Anu Soikkelii, Laura Sorri

Abstract:

Finnish national research project, User- and Business-oriented Suburb Renovation Concept (KLIKK), was started in January 2012 and will end in June 2014. The perspective of energy efficiency is emphasised in the project, but also it addresses what improving the energy efficiency of suburban apartment buildings means from the standpoint of architecturally valuable buildings representing different periods. The project will also test the impacts of stricter energy efficiency requirements on renovation projects. The primary goal of the project is to develop a user-oriented, industrial, economic renovation concept for suburban apartment building renovation, extension and construction of additional storeys. The concept will make it possible to change from performance- and cost-based operation to novel service- and user-oriented, site-specifically tailored renovation methods utilizing integrated order and delivery chains.The present project is collaborating with Ministry of the Environment and participating cities in developing a new type of lighter town planning model for suburban renovations and in-fill construction. To support this, the project will simultaneously develop practices for environmental impact assessment tools in renovation and suburban supplementary and in-fill construction.

Keywords: energy efficiency, prefabrication, renovation concept, suburbs, sustainability, user-orientated

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Ewa M. Laskowska, Jorn Vatn

Abstract:

Industry 4.0 focuses on digital optimization of industrial processes. The idea is to use extracted data in order to build a decision support model enabling use of those data for real time decision making. In terms of predictive maintenance, the desired decision support tool would be a model enabling prognostics of system's health based on the current condition of considered equipment. Within area of system prognostics and health management, a commonly used health indicator is Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) of a system. Because the RUL is a random variable, it has to be estimated based on available health indicators. Health indicators can be of different types and come from different sources. They can be process variables, equipment performance variables, data related to number of experienced failures, etc. The aim of this study is the analysis of performance variables of emergency shutdown valves (ESV) used in oil and gas industry. ESV is inspected periodically, and at each inspection torque and time of valve operation are registered. The data will be analyzed by means of machine learning or statistical analysis. The purpose is to investigate whether the available data could be used as a health indicator for a prognostic purpose. The second objective is to examine what is the most efficient way to incorporate the data into predictive model. The idea is to check whether the data can be applied in form of explanatory variables in Markov process or whether other stochastic processes would be a more convenient to build an RUL model based on the information coming from registered data.

Keywords: emergency shutdown valves, health indicator, prognostics, remaining useful lifetime, RUL

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Andrew Rylance, Anna Spenceley

Abstract:

An evaluation was undertaken to understand opportunities for stimulating local enterprise development within the tourism supply chain, linked to a private game reserve in South Africa, the Sabi Sand Game Reserve, which neighbors the Kruger National Park. The study focused on understanding the market demand for local products and services from commercial lodges, and the current local supply from enterprises and entrepreneurs in local communities. This article quantifies the value of current procurement spend by lodges on local products and services and estimates their potential future expenditure. The study matches these responses with the availability of products and services in the neighboring communities. It also provides insights into relationships between private lodges, game reserves and local communities in South Africa. It concurs with previous research on tourism supply chains in rural South Africa, and also makes recommendations for the development of local businesses with higher technical capacity development.

Keywords: tourism, communities, business development, South Africa, Sabi Sand Game Reserve, market study, supply study

Procedia PDF Downloads 501