Search results for: generalised linear model

Authors: F. Demir

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Strategic Management is highly critical for all types of organizations. This paper examines maturity level of strategic management practices of public and private sector organizations in Turkey, and presents a conceptual model for assessing the maturity of strategic management in any organization. This research focuses on R&D intensive organizations (RDO) because it is claimed that such organizations are more innovative and innovation is a critical part of the model. The Strategic management maturity model (S-3M) is basically composed of six maturity levels with five different dimensions. Based on 63 organizations, the findings reveal that the average maturity of all organizations in the sample group is three out of five. It corresponds to the stage of ‘performed’. Results simply show that the majority of organizations from various industries and sectors implement strategic management activities; however, they experience multiple challenges to optimize strategic management processes and integrate organizational components with business strategies. Briefly, they struggle to become an innovative organization.

Keywords: strategic management maturity, innovation, developing countries, research and development

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Authors: Hamza Rekab Djabri, Salah Daoud

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The present paper deals with the computational of structural and electronic properties of ThC and ThN compounds using density functional theory within generalized-gradient (GGA) apraximation and local density approximation (LDA). We employ the full potential linear muffin-tin orbitals (FP-LMTO) as implemented in the Lmtart code. We have used to examine structure parameter in eight different structures such as in NaCl (B1), CsCl (B2), ZB (B3), NiAs (B8), PbO (B10), Wurtzite (B4) , HCP (A3) βSn (A5) structures . The equilibrium lattice parameter, bulk modulus, and its pressure derivative were presented for all calculated phases. The calculated ground state properties are in good agreement with available experimental and theoretical results.

Keywords: DFT, GGA, LDA, properties structurales, ThC, ThN

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Authors: Ahmad Ammar, Umar Khan Khattak, Muhammad Majid

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Empirically based lumped hydrologic models have an extensive track record of use for various watershed managements and flood related studies. This study focuses on the impacts of LULC change for 10 year period on the discharge in watershed using lumped model HEC-HMS. The Indus above Tarbela region acts as a source of the main flood events in the middle and lower portions of Indus because of the amount of rainfall and topographic setting of the region. The discharge pattern of the region is influenced by the LULC associated with it. In this study the Landsat TM images were used to do LULC analysis of the watershed. Satellite daily precipitation TRMM data was used as input rainfall. The input variables for model building in HEC-HMS were then calculated based on the GIS data collected and pre-processed in HEC-GeoHMS. SCS-CN was used as transform model, SCS unit hydrograph method was used as loss model and Muskingum was used as routing model. For discharge simulation years 2000 and 2010 were taken. HEC-HMS was calibrated for the year 2000 and then validated for 2010.The performance of the model was assessed through calibration and validation process and resulted R2=0.92 during calibration and validation. Relative Bias for the years 2000 was -9% and for2010 was -14%. The result shows that in 10 years the impact of LULC change on discharge has been negligible in the study area overall. One reason is that, the proportion of built-up area in the watershed, which is the main causative factor of change in discharge, is less than 1% of the total area. However, locally, the impact of development was found significant in built up area of Mansehra city. The analysis was done on Mansehra city sub-watershed with an area of about 16 km2 and has more than 13% built up area in 2010. The results showed that with an increase of 40% built-up area in the city from 2000 to 2010 the discharge values increased about 33 percent, indicating the impact of LULC change on discharge value.

Keywords: LULC change, HEC-HMS, Indus Above Tarbela, SCS-CN

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Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

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Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM_2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM_2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM_2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM₂.₅, fugitive, emission inventory

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Authors: Pornsiri Kaewpradit, Chalisa Pourneaw

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Temperature control improvement of a membrane reactor with exothermic and reversible esterification reaction is studied in this work. It is well known that a batch membrane reactor requires different control strategies from a continuous one due to the fact that it is operated dynamically. Due to the effect of the operating temperature, the suitable control scheme has to be designed based reliable predictive model to achieve a desired objective. In the study, the optimization framework has been preliminary formulated in order to determine an optimal temperature trajectory for maximizing a desired product. In model predictive control scheme, a set of predictive models have been initially developed corresponding to the possible operating points of the system. The multiple predictive control moves have been further calculated on-line using the developed models corresponding to current operating point. It is obviously seen in the simulation results that the temperature control has been improved compared to the performance obtained by the conventional predictive controller. Further robustness tests have also been investigated in this study.

Keywords: model predictive control, batch reactor, temperature control, membrane reactor

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Authors: Titus G. Kassem, Izang A. Nyam

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A mathematical model is constructed to study the effect of predation on two competing species in which one of the competing species is a prey to the predator whilst the other species are not under predation. Conditions for the existence and stability of equilibrium solutions were determined. Numerical simulation results indicate the possibility of a stable coexistence of the three interacting species in form of stable oscillations under certain parameter values. We also noticed that under some certain parameter values, species under predation go into extinction.

Keywords: competition, predator-prey, species, ecology

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Authors: Giselle Maggie Fer Castañeda, Diego Iván González

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The objective of this work was to study the autoshaped choice behavior in the Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) neural network model and analyze it under the matching law. Autoshaped choice can be viewed as a form of economic behavior defined as the preference between alternatives according to their relative outcomes. The Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) model is a connectionist proposal that unifies operant and Pavlovian conditioning. This model has been used for more than three decades as a neurobehavioral explanation of conditioning phenomena, as well as a generator of predictions suitable for experimental testing with non-human animals and humans. The study consisted of different simulations in which, in each one, a ratio of reinforcement was established for two alternatives, and the responses (i.e., activations) in each of them were measured. Choice studies with animals have demonstrated that the data generally conform closely to the generalized matching law equation, which states that the response ratio equals proportionally to the reinforcement ratio; therefore, it was expected to find similar results with the neural networks of the Donahoe, Burgos and Palmer (DBP) model since these networks have simulated and predicted various conditioning phenomena. The results were analyzed by the generalized matching law equation, and it was observed that under some contingencies, the data from the networks adjusted approximately to what was established by the equation. Implications and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: matching law, neural networks, computational models, behavioral sciences

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

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Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, mike21, sediment

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Authors: Nadia Adnan, Muhammad Mohsin Raza, Latha Ravindran

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Based on the principles above, the study presents an economic model of food waste for consumers, intermediaries, and producers. We discriminate between purchasing and selling, purchases versus customers consumption, and gross output versus sales for each intermediary. To compensate for waste at each level of the supply chain, agents must charge higher sales prices. The research model can produce more accurate predictions about how actions (public regulations or private efforts) to reduce food waste impact markets, including indirect (cascading) effects. With a formal model, researchers demonstrate the uniqueness of these interaction effects and simulate an empirical model calibrated to market characteristics and waste rates in Saudi Arabia. Researchers demonstrate that the effects of waste reduction differ per commodity, depending on supply and demand elasticities, degree of openness to international commerce, and the beginning rates of food loss and waste at each level of the value chain. Because of the consequential effects related to the supply chain, initiatives to minimize food waste will be strengthened in some circumstances and partially countered in others.

Keywords: food loss, food waste, supply chain management, Saudi Arabia, food supply

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Authors: Tai-Yue Wang, Yi-Ho Chen

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In this study, we investigate a two-echelon supply chain with two suppliers and three retailers among which one retailer dominates other retailers. A price competition demand function is used to model this dominant retailer, which is leading market. The promotion strategies and negotiation schemes are integrated to form decision-making models under different scenarios. These models are then formulated into different mathematical programming models. The decision variables such as promotional costs, retailer prices, wholesale price, and order quantity are included in these models. At last, the distributions of promotion costs under different cost allocation strategies are discussed. Finally, an empirical example used to validate our models. The results from this empirical example show that the profit model will create the largest profit for the supply chain but with different profit-sharing results. At the same time, the more risk a member can take, the more profits are distributed to that member in the utility model.

Keywords: supply chain, price promotion, mathematical models, dominant retailer

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Authors: András Szekrényes

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Delamination is one of the major failure modes in laminated composite structures. Delamination tips are mostly captured by spatial numerical models in order to predict crack growth. This paper presents some mechanical models of delaminated composite shells based on shallow shell theories. The mechanical fields are based on a third-order displacement field in terms of the through-thickness coordinate of the laminated shell. The undelaminated and delaminated parts are captured by separate models and the continuity and boundary conditions are also formulated in a general way providing a large size boundary value problem. The system of differential equations is solved by the state space method for an elliptic delaminated shell having simply supported edges. The comparison of the proposed and a numerical model indicates that the primary indicator of the model is the deflection, the secondary is the widthwise distribution of the energy release rate. The model is promising and suitable to determine accurately the J-integral distribution along the delamination front. Based on the proposed model it is also possible to develop finite elements which are able to replace the computationally expensive spatial models of delaminated structures.

Keywords: J-integral, levy method, third-order shell theory, state space solution

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Authors: Andi Darmawan, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a chronic disease in human that occurred if pancreas cannot produce enough of insulin hormone or the body uses ineffectively insulin hormone which causes increasing level of glucose in the blood, or it was called hyperglycemia. In Indonesia, DM is a serious disease on health because it can cause blindness, kidney disease, diabetic feet (gangrene), and stroke. The type of DM criteria can also be divided based on the main causes; they are DM type 1, type 2, and gestational. Diabetes type 1 or previously known as insulin-independent diabetes is due to a lack of production of insulin hormone. Diabetes type 2 or previously known as non-insulin dependent diabetes is due to ineffective use of insulin while gestational diabetes is a hyperglycemia that found during pregnancy. The most one type commonly found in patient is DM type 2. The main factors of this disease are genetic (A) and life style (E). Those disease with 2 factors can be constructed with additive genetic and unique environment (AE) model. In this article was discussed parameter estimation of AE model using Bayesian method and the inheritance character simulation on parent-offspring. On the AE model, there are response variable, predictor variables, and parameters were capable of representing the number of population on research. The population can be measured through a taken random sample. The response and predictor variables can be determined by sample while the parameters are unknown, so it was required to estimate the parameters based on the sample. Estimation of AE model parameters was obtained based on a joint posterior distribution. The simulation was conducted to get the value of genetic variance and life style variance. The results of simulation are 0.3600 for genetic variance and 0.0899 for life style variance. Therefore, the variance of genetic factor in DM type 2 is greater than life style.

Keywords: AE model, Bayesian method, diabetes mellitus type 2, genetic, life style

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Authors: V. Pourmostaghimi, M. Zadshakoyan

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Efficiency and productivity of the finish hard turning can be enhanced impressively by utilizing accurate predictive models for cutting tool wear. However, the ability of genetic programming in presenting an accurate analytical model is a notable characteristic which makes it more applicable than other predictive modeling methods. In this paper, the genetic equation for modeling of tool flank wear is developed with the use of the experimentally measured flank wear values and genetic programming during finish turning of hardened AISI D2. Series of tests were conducted over a range of cutting parameters and the values of tool flank wear were measured. On the basis of obtained results, genetic model presenting connection between cutting parameters and tool flank wear were extracted. The accuracy of the genetically obtained model was assessed by using two statistical measures, which were root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). Evaluation results revealed that presented genetic model predicted flank wear over the study area accurately (R² = 0.9902 and RMSE = 0.0102). These results allow concluding that the proposed genetic equation corresponds well with experimental data and can be implemented in real industrial applications.

Keywords: cutting parameters, flank wear, genetic programming, hard turning

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Authors: Sharjeel Saleem

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The glass ceiling has been a burning issue for many researchers. In this research, we examine gender of the BOD, training and development, workforce diversity, positive attitude towards women, and employee acts as antecedents of glass ceiling. Furthermore, we also look for effects of glass ceiling on likelihood of female selection and promotion and on female effectiveness. Multiple linear regression conducted on data drawn from different public and private sector organizations support our hypotheses. The research, however, is limited to Faisalabad city and only females from minority group are targeted here.

Keywords: glass ceiling, stereotype attitudes, female effectiveness

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Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

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The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo-Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM

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Authors: Christos Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Ifigenia Apostolou, Vicky Dradaki, Tamta Sirbilatze, Irini Dri, Christina Kordali, Vaggelis Lambas, Kostas Argyros, Georgios Mavras

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Objectives: Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The purpose of our study was to examine the hypothesis that Mediterranean diet may protect against mortality and reduce admission duration in elderly, hospitalized patients. Methods: Sample population included 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2). The following data were taken into account in analysis: anthropometric and laboratory data, dietary habits (MedDiet score), patients’ nutritional status [Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score], physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaires, IPAQ), smoking status, cause and duration of current admission, medical history (co-morbidities, previous admissions). Primary endpoints were mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of admission, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Logistic regression and linear regression analysis were performed in order to identify independent predictors for mortality and admission duration difference respectively. Results: According to MNA, nutrition was normal in 54/150 (36%) of patients, 46/150 (30.7%) of them were at risk of malnutrition and the rest 50/150 (33.3%) were malnourished. After performing multivariate logistic regression analysis we found that the odds of death decreased 30% per each unit increase of MedDiet score (OR=0.7, 95% CI:0.6-0.8, p < 0.0001). Patients with cancer-related admission were 37.7 times more likely to die, compared to those with infection (OR=37.7, 95% CI:4.4-325, p=0.001). According to multivariate linear regression analysis, admission duration was inversely related to Mediterranean diet, since it is decreased 0.18 days on average for each unit increase of MedDiet score (b:-0.18, 95% CI:-0.33 - -0.035, p=0.02). Additionally, the duration of current admission increased on average 0.83 days for each previous hospital admission (b:0.83, 95% CI:0.5-1.16, p<0.0001). The admission duration of patients with cancer was on average 4.5 days higher than the patients who admitted due to infection (b:4.5, 95% CI:0.9-8, p=0.015). Conclusion: Mediterranean diet adequately protects elderly, hospitalized patients against mortality and reduces the duration of hospitalization.

Keywords: Mediterranean diet, malnutrition, nutritional status, prognostic factors for mortality

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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Authors: Sanchay Vaidya, Sourabh Gupta, Gouresh Singhal

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There are various modes of transport in metro cities in India, auto-rickshaws being one of them. Auto-rickshaws provide connectivity to all the places in the city offering last mile connectivity. Among all the modes of transport, the auto-rickshaw industry is the most unorganized and inefficient. Although unions exist in different cities they aren’t good enough to cope up with the upcoming advancements in the field of technology. An introduction of simple technology in this field may do wonder and help increase the revenues. This paper aims to organize this segment under a single umbrella using GPS devices and mobile phones. The paper includes surveys of about 300 auto-rickshaw drivers and 1000 plus commuters across 6 metro cities in India. Carrying out research and analysis provides a base for the development of this model and implementation of this innovative technique, which is discussed in this paper in detail with ample emphasis given on the implementation of this model.

Keywords: auto-rickshaws, business model, GPS device, mobile application

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Authors: M. Brandt, A. Peniak, J. Makarovič, P. Rafajdus

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This paper deals with a novel approach of power transformers diagnostics. This approach identifies the exact location and the range of a fault in the transformer and helps to reduce operation costs related to handling of the faulty transformer, its disassembly and repair. The advantage of the approach is a possibility to simulate healthy transformer and also all faults, which can occur in transformer during its operation without its disassembling, which is very expensive in practice. The approach is based on creating frequency dependent impedance of the transformer by sweep frequency response analysis measurements and by 3D FE parametrical modeling of the fault in the transformer. The parameters of the 3D FE model are the position and the range of the axial short circuit. Then, by comparing the frequency dependent impedances of the parametrical models with the measured ones, the location and the range of the fault is identified. The approach was tested on a real transformer and showed high coincidence between the real fault and the simulated one.

Keywords: transformer, parametrical model of transformer, fault, sweep frequency response analysis, finite element method

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Authors: Klary Geisler, Dalit Lev-Arey, Yael Hacohen

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It is a well-known fact that exercise has favorable effects on people's physical health, as well as mental well-being. However, as for as excessive exercise, it may likely elevate negative consequences (e.g., physical injuries, negligence of everyday responsibilities such as work, family life). Lately, there is a growing interest in exercise addiction, sometimes referred to as exercise dependence, which is defined as a craving for physical activity that results in extreme work-out sessions and generates negative physiological and psychological symptoms (e.g., withdrawal symptoms, tolerance, social conflict). Exercise addiction is considered a behavioral addiction, yet it was not included in the latest editions of the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (DSM-IV), due to lack of significant research. Specifically, there is scarce research on the relationship between exercise addiction and personality dimensions. The purpose of the current research was to examine the relationship between primary exercise addiction symptoms and the big five dimensions, perfectionism (high performance expectations and self-critical performance evaluations) and subjective affect. participants were 152 trainees on a variety of aerobic sports activities (running, cycling, swimming) that were recruited through sports groups and trainers. 88% of participants trained for at least 5 hours per week, 24% of the participants trained above 10 hours per week. To test the predictive ability of the IVs a hierarchical linear regression with forced block entry was performed. It was found that Neuroticism significantly predicted exercise addiction symptoms (20% of the variance, p<0.001), while consciousness was negatively correlated with exercise addiction symptoms (14% of variance p<0.05); both had a unique contribution. Other dimensions of the big five (agreeableness, openness and extraversion) did not have any contribution to the dependent. Moreover, maladaptive perfectionism (self-critical performance evaluations) significantly predicted exercise addiction symptoms as well (10% of the variance P < 0.05). The overall regression model explained 54% of variance.

Keywords: big five, consciousness, excessive exercise, exercise addiction, neuroticism, perfectionism, personality

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Authors: Madia Safdar, G. Amjad Hussain, Mashhood Ahmad

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One of the major challenges of today’s era is peak demand which causes stress on the transmission lines and also raises the cost of energy generation and ultimately higher electricity bills to the end users, and it was used to be managed by the supply side management. However, nowadays this has been withdrawn because of existence of potential in the demand side management (DSM) having its economic and- environmental advantages. DSM in domestic load can play a vital role in reducing the peak load demand on the network provides a significant cost saving. In this paper the potential of demand response (DR) in reducing the peak load demands and electricity bills to the electric users is elaborated. For this purpose the domestic appliances are modeled in MATLAB Simulink and controlled by a module called energy management controller. The devices are categorized into controllable and uncontrollable loads and are operated according to real-time tariff pricing pattern instead of fixed time pricing or variable pricing. Energy management controller decides the switching instants of the controllable appliances based on the results from optimization algorithms. In GAMS software, the MILP (mixed integer linear programming) algorithm is used for optimization. In different cases, different constraints are used for optimization, considering the comforts, needs and priorities of the end users. Results are compared and the savings in electricity bills are discussed in this paper considering real time pricing and fixed tariff pricing, which exhibits the existence of potential to reduce electricity bills and peak loads in demand side management. It is seen that using real time pricing tariff instead of fixed tariff pricing helps to save in the electricity bills. Moreover the simulation results of the proposed energy management system show that the gained power savings lie in high range. It is anticipated that the result of this research will prove to be highly effective to the utility companies as well as in the improvement of domestic DR.

Keywords: controllable and uncontrollable domestic loads, demand response, demand side management, optimization, MILP (mixed integer linear programming)

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Authors: M. Kiran Reddy, K. Sreenivasa Rao

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The conventional Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based speech synthesis system (HTS) uses only a pulse excitation model, which significantly differs from natural excitation signal. Hence, buzziness can be perceived in the speech generated using HTS. This paper proposes an efficient excitation modeling method that can significantly reduce the buzziness, and improve the quality of HMM-based speech synthesis. The proposed approach models the pitch-synchronous residual frames extracted from the residual excitation signal. Each pitch synchronous residual frame is parameterized using 30 wavelet coefficients. These 30 wavelet coefficients are found to accurately capture the perceptually important information present in the residual waveform. In synthesis phase, the residual frames are reconstructed from the generated wavelet coefficients and are pitch-synchronously overlap-added to generate the excitation signal. The proposed excitation modeling method is integrated into HMM-based speech synthesis system. Evaluation results indicate that the speech synthesized by the proposed excitation model is significantly better than the speech generated using state-of-the-art excitation modeling methods.

Keywords: excitation modeling, hidden Markov models, pitch-synchronous frames, speech synthesis, wavelet coefficients

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Authors: Ali Bakari Mohammed

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Transitioning is a continuous process of radical change in a society which involves co-evolution of institutional, technological, socio-cultural, and ecological developments at different scales and levels. Transition management model is a methodology that influences structural change of complex systems over a period (0-30 years) by experimenting and implementing new techniques. A transition management in the context of groundwater is a radical change from the current operate and control system to a next generation integrated and sustainable system that takes into account quality protection and sustained supply into the future. This study evaluates the transition management model in adopting it as a viable tool for the attainment of sustainable groundwater management. The outcome of the evaluation shows that there are three levels (strategic, tactical and operational) of operating the transition management model. At the strategic level, long-term goals for sustainable groundwater management are formulated, at the tactical level activities such as inter institutional networking, negotiation, planning and financing are carried out, and at the operational level, transition experiments and strategic niche management are carried out at the societal level. Overall, different actors and set of activities are required to partake at each management level. The outcome of this paper will provide basis for the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 in Nigeria.

Keywords: transition management, groundwater, sustainable management, tool, Nigeria

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Authors: Shivahari Revathi Venkateswaran

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Segmenting customers plays a significant role in churn prediction. It helps the marketing team with proactive and reactive customer retention. For the reactive retention, the retention team reaches out to customers who already showed intent to disconnect by giving some special offers. When coming to proactive retention, the marketing team uses churn prediction model, which ranks each customer from rank 1 to 100, where 1 being more risk to churn/disconnect (high ranks have high propensity to churn). The churn prediction model is built by using XGBoost model. However, with the churn rank, the marketing team can only reach out to the customers based on their individual ranks. To profile different groups of customers and to frame different marketing strategies for targeted groups of customers are not possible with the churn ranks. For this, the customers must be grouped in different segments based on their profiles, like demographics and other non-controllable attributes. This helps the marketing team to frame different offer groups for the targeted audience and prevent them from disconnecting (proactive retention). For segmentation, machine learning approaches like k-mean clustering will not form unique customer segments that have customers with same attributes. This paper finds an alternate approach to find all the combination of unique segments that can be formed from the user attributes and then finds the segments who have uplift (churn rate higher than the baseline churn rate). For this, search algorithms like fast search and recursive search are used. Further, for each segment, all customers can be targeted using individual churn ranks from the churn prediction model. Finally, a UI (User Interface) is developed for the marketing team to interactively search for the meaningful segments that are formed and target the right set of audience for future marketing campaigns and prevent them from disconnecting.

Keywords: churn prediction modeling, XGBoost model, uplift segments, proactive marketing, search algorithms, retention, k-mean clustering

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Authors: A. Aboubakr, E. Fehling, S. A. Mourad, M. Omar

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Wind energy is one of the most effective renewable sources especially offshore wind energy although offshore wind technology is more costly to produce. It is well known that offshore wind energy can potentially be very cheap once infrastructure and researches improve. Laterally, the trend is to construct offshore wind energy to generate the electricity form wind. This leads to intensive research in order to improve the infrastructures. Offshore wind energy is the construction of wind farms in bodies of water to generate electricity from wind. The most important part in offshore wind turbine structure is the foundation and its connection with the wind tower. This is the main difference between onshore and offshore structures. Grouted connection between the foundation and the wind tower is the most important part of the building process when constructing wind offshore turbines. Most attention should be paid to the actual grout connection as this transfers the loads safely from tower to foundations and the soil also. In this paper, finite element analyses have been carried out for studying the behaviour of offshore grouted connection for wind turbine structures. ATENA program have been used for non-linear analysis simulation of the real structural behavior thus demonstrating the crushing, cracking, contact between the two materials and steel yielding. A calibration of the material used in the simulation has been carried out assuring an accurate model of the used material by ATENA program. This calibration was performed by comparing the results from the ATENA program with experimental results to validate the material properties used in ATENA program. Three simple patch test models with different properties have been performed. The research is concluded with a result that the calibration showing a good agreement between the ATENA program material behaviors and the experimental results.

Keywords: grouted connection, 3D modeling, finite element analysis, offshore wind energy turbines, stresses

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Authors: Assaad Ghazouani, Ati Abdessatar

Abstract:

In the world, agriculture maintains a social and economic importance in the national economy. Its importance is distinguished by its ripple effects not only downstream but also upstream vis-à-vis the non-agricultural sector. However, the situation is relatively fragile because of weather conditions. In this work, we propose a model to highlight the impacts of climate change (CC) on economic growth in the world where agriculture is considered as a strategic sector. The CC is supposed to directly and indirectly affect economic growth by reducing the performance of the agricultural sector. The model is tested for Tunisia. The results validate the hypothesis that the potential economic damage of the CC is important. Indeed, an increase in CO2 concentration (temperatures and disruption of rainfall patterns) will have an impact on global economic growth particularly by reducing the performance of the agricultural sector. Analysis from a vector error correction model also highlights the magnitude of climate impact on the performance of the agricultural sector and its repercussions on economic growth

Keywords: Climate Change, Agriculture, Economic Growth, World, VECM, Cointegration.

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Authors: Fang Gong

Abstract:

Distance measures are an indispensable part of many instance-based learning (IBL) and machine learning (ML) algorithms. The value difference metrics (VDM) and inverted specific-class distance measure (ISCDM) are among the top-performing distance measures that address nominal attributes. VDM performs well in some domains owing to its simplicity and poorly in others that exist missing value and non-class attribute noise. ISCDM, however, typically works better than VDM on such domains. To maximize their advantages and avoid disadvantages, in this paper, a selection approach: a discriminative model for nominal attributes-based distance measures is proposed. More concretely, VDM and ISCDM are built independently on a training dataset at the training stage, and the most credible one is recorded for each training instance. At the test stage, its nearest neighbor for each test instance is primarily found by any of VDM and ISCDM and then chooses the most reliable model of its nearest neighbor to predict its class label. It is simply denoted as a discriminative distance measure (DDM). Experiments are conducted on the 34 University of California at Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository datasets, and it shows DDM retains the interpretability and simplicity of VDM and ISCDM but significantly outperforms the original VDM and ISCDM and other state-of-the-art competitors in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: distance measure, discriminative model, nominal attributes, nearest neighbor

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Authors: Alix Limoges, William Bruch, Christophe Yohia, Jacques Piazzola

Abstract:

A number of questions arise concerning the long-term impact of the contribution of marine aerosol fluxes generated at the air-sea interface on the occurrence of intense events (storms, floods, etc.) in the coastal environment. To this end, knowledge is needed on sea-spray emission rates and the atmospheric dynamics of the corresponding particles. Our aim is to implement the mesoscale model MESO-NH on the study area using an accurate sea-spray source function to estimate heat fluxes and impact on the precipitations. Based on an original and complete sea-spray source function, which covers a large size spectrum since taking into consideration the sea-spray produced by both bubble bursting and surface tearing process, we propose a comparison between model simulations and experimental data obtained during an oceanic scientific cruise on board the navy ship Atalante. The results show the relevance of the sea-spray flux calculations as well as their impact on the heat fluxes and AOD.

Keywords: atmospheric models, sea-spray source, sea-spray dynamics, aerosols

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang, Shou-Hsiung Cheng

Abstract:

This study examined their willingness to use telecare for people who have had experience falling in the last three months in Taiwan. This study adopted convenience sampling and a structural questionnaire to collect data. It was based on the definition and the constructs related to the Health Belief Model (HBM). HBM is comprised of seven constructs: perceived benefits (PBs), perceived disease threat (PDT), perceived barriers of taking action (PBTA), external cues to action (ECUE), internal cues to action (ICUE), attitude toward using (ATT), and behavioral intention to use (BI). This study adopted Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) to put forward an effective method. It shows the dependence of ATT on PB, PDT, PBTA, ECUE, and ICUE. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.028 and 0.166 in the FNN, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.828 and 0.578 in the regression model, respectively. On the other hand, as to the dependence of ATT on BI, as presented in the FNN, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.050 and 0.109, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.529 and 0.571 in the regression model, respectively. The results show that the FNN method is better than the regression analysis. It is an effective and viable good way.

Keywords: fall, fuzzy neural network, health belief model, telecare, willingness

Procedia PDF Downloads 201