Search results for: risk prediction model

Authors: Long Pham, Julia Blanke

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An increasingly popular way of establishing citizen engagement within communities is through ‘city apps’. Currently, most of these mobile applications seem to be extensions of the existing communication media, sometimes merely replicating the information available on the classical city web sites, and therefore provide minimal additional impact on citizen behavior and engagement. In order to overcome this challenge, we propose to use a holistic behavioral model to generate dynamic and contextualized app content based on optimizing well defined city-related performance goals constrained by the proposed behavioral model. In this paper, we will show how the data collected by the CorkCitiEngage project in the Irish city of Cork can be utilized to calibrate aspects of the proposed model enabling the design of a personalized citizen engagement app aiming at positively influencing people’s behavior towards more active participation in their communities. We will focus on the important aspect of intentions to act, which is essential for understanding the reasons behind the common value-action-gap being responsible for the mismatch between good intentions and actual observable behavior, and will discuss how customized app design can be based on a rigorous model of behavior optimized towards maximizing well defined city-related performance goals.

Keywords: city apps, holistic behaviour model, intention to act, value-action-gap, citizen engagement

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Scott M. Black, Craig Maclean, Pauline Hall Barrientos, Konstantinos Ritos, Asimina Kazakidi

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Aortic aneurysms and dissections are leading causes of death in cardiovascular disease. Both inevitably lead to hemodynamic instability without surgical intervention in the form of vascular stent-graft deployment. An accurate description of the aortic geometry and blood flow in patient-specific cases is vital for treatment planning and long-term success of such grafts, as they must generate physiological branch perfusion and in-stent hemodynamics. The aim of this study was to create patient-specific computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models through a multi-modality, multi-dimensional approach with boundary condition optimization to predict branch flow rates and in-stent hemodynamics in custom stent-graft configurations. Three-dimensional (3D) thoracoabdominal aortae were reconstructed from four-dimensional flow-magnetic resonance imaging (4D Flow-MRI) and computed tomography (CT) medical images. The former employed a novel approach to generate and enhance vessel lumen contrast via through-plane velocity at discrete, user defined cardiac time steps post-hoc. To produce patient-specific boundary conditions (BCs), the aortic geometry was reduced to a one-dimensional (1D) model. Thereafter, a zero-dimensional (0D) 3-Element Windkessel model (3EWM) was coupled to each terminal branch to represent the distal vasculature. In this coupled 0D-1D model, the 3EWM parameters were optimized to yield branch flow waveforms which are representative of the 4D Flow-MRI-derived in-vivo data. Thereafter, a 0D-3D CFD model was created, utilizing the optimized 3EWM BCs and a 4D Flow-MRI-obtained inlet velocity profile. A sensitivity analysis on the effects of stent-graft configuration and BC parameters was then undertaken using multiple stent-graft configurations and a range of distal vasculature conditions. 4D Flow-MRI granted unparalleled visualization of blood flow throughout the cardiac cycle in both the pre- and postsurgical states. Segmentation and reconstruction of healthy and stented regions from retrospective 4D Flow-MRI images also generated 3D models with geometries which were successfully validated against their CT-derived counterparts. 0D-1D coupling efficiently captured branch flow and pressure waveforms, while 0D-3D models also enabled 3D flow visualization and quantification of clinically relevant hemodynamic parameters for in-stent thrombosis and graft limb occlusion. It was apparent that changes in 3EWM BC parameters had a pronounced effect on perfusion distribution and near-wall hemodynamics. Results show that the 3EWM parameters could be iteratively changed to simulate a range of graft limb diameters and distal vasculature conditions for a given stent-graft to determine the optimal configuration prior to surgery. To conclude, this study outlined a methodology to aid in the prediction post-surgical branch perfusion and in-stent hemodynamics in patient specific cases for the implementation of custom stent-grafts.

Keywords: 4D flow-MRI, computational fluid dynamics, vascular stent-grafts, windkessel

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Authors: E. Koyuncu

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The problem of Order Acceptance and Scheduling (OAS) is defined as a joint decision of which orders to accept for processing and how to schedule them. Any linear programming model representing real-world situation involves the parameters defined by the decision maker in an uncertain way or by means of language statement. Fuzzy data can be used to incorporate vagueness in the real-life situation. In this study, a fuzzy mathematical model is proposed for a single machine OAS problem, where the orders are defined by their fuzzy due dates, fuzzy processing times, and fuzzy sequence dependent setup times. The signed distance method, one of the fuzzy ranking methods, is used to handle the fuzzy constraints in the model.

Keywords: fuzzy mathematical programming, fuzzy ranking, order acceptance, single machine scheduling

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Authors: Abderazak Guettaf

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The mathematical models of the physical phenomena interacting in inductive plasma were described by the physics equations of the continuous mediums. A 3D model based on magnetic potential vector and electric scalar potential (A, V) formulation is used. The finished volume method is applied to electromagnetic equation, to obtain the field distribution inside the plasma. The numerical results of the method developed on a basic model designed starting from a real three-dimensional model were exposed. From the mathematical model 3D spreading assumptions and boundary conditions, we evaluated the electric field in the load and we have developed a numerical code made under the MATLAB environment, all verifying the effectiveness and validity of this code.

Keywords: electric field, 3D magnetic potential vector and electric scalar potential (A, V) formulation, finished volumes, annular plasma

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Authors: Mohamed Belhorma, Aboubakar S. Bouchikhi, Belkacem Bounab

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This paper addresses modeling a Double A-Arm suspension, a three-dimensional nonlinear model has been developed using the multibody systems formalism. Dynamical study of the different components responses was done, particularly for the wheel assembly. To validate those results, the system was constructed and simulated by RecurDyn, a professional multibody dynamics simulation software. The model has been used as the Objectif function in an optimization algorithm for ride quality improvement.

Keywords: double A-Arm suspension, multibody systems, ride quality optimization, dynamic simulation

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Authors: Eszter Repasi, Akos Koller

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Our genetic information determines our look, physiology, sports performance and all our features. Maximizing the performances of athletes have adopted a science-based approach to the nutritional support. Nowadays genetics studies have blended with nutritional sciences, and a dynamically evolving, new research field have appeared. Nutritional genomics is needed to be used by nutritional experts. This is a recent field of nutritional science, which can provide a solution to reach the best sport performance using correlations between the athlete’s genome, nutritions, molecules, included human microbiome (links between food, microbiome and epigenetics), nutrigenomics and nutrigenetics. Nutritional genomics has a tremendous potential to change the future of dietary guidelines and personal recommendations. Experts need to use new technology to get information about the athletes, like nutritional genomics profile (included the determination of the oral and gut microbiome and DNA coded reaction for food components), which can modify the preparation term and sports performance. The influence of nutrients on the genes expression is called Nutrigenomics. The heterogeneous response of gene variants to nutrients, dietary components is called Nutrigenetics. The human microbiome plays a critical role in the state of health and well-being, and there are more links between food or nutrition and the human microbiome composition, which can develop diseases and epigenetic changes as well. A nutritional genomics-based profile of athletes can be the best technic for a dietitian to make a unique sports nutrition diet plan. Using functional food and the right food components can be effected on health state, thus sports performance. Scientists need to determine the best response, due to the effect of nutrients on health, through altering genome promote metabolites and result changes in physiology. Nutritional biochemistry explains why polymorphisms in genes for the absorption, circulation, or metabolism of essential nutrients (such as n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids or epigallocatechin-3-gallate), would affect the efficacy of that nutrient. Controlled nutritional deficiencies and failures, prevented the change of health state or a newly discovered food intolerance are observed by a proper medical team, can support better sports performance. It is important that the dietetics profession informed on gene-diet interactions, that may be leading to optimal health, reduced risk of injury or disease. A special medical application for documentation and monitoring of data of health state and risk factors can uphold and warn the medical team for an early action and help to be able to do a proper health service in time. This model can set up a personalized nutrition advice from the status control, through the recovery, to the monitoring. But more studies are needed to understand the mechanisms and to be able to change the composition of the microbiome, environmental and genetic risk factors in cases of athletes.

Keywords: gene-diet interaction, multidisciplinary team, microbiome, diet plan

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Authors: Jingsi Li, Neil S. Ferguson

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Time pressure could have an influence on the productivity, quality of decision making, and the efficiency of problem-solving. This has been mostly stemmed from cognitive research or psychological literature. However, a salient scarce discussion has been held for transport adjacent fields. It is conceivable that in many activity-travel contexts, time pressure is a potentially important factor since an excessive amount of decision time may incur the risk of late arrival to the next activity. The activity-travel rescheduling behavior is commonly explained by costs and benefits of factors such as activity engagements, personal intentions, social requirements, etc. This paper hypothesizes that an additional factor of perceived time pressure could affect travelers’ rescheduling behavior, thus leading to an impact on travel demand management. Time pressure may arise from different ways and is assumed here to be essentially incurred due to travelers planning their schedules without an expectation of unforeseen elements, e.g., transport disruption. In addition to a linear-additive utility-maximization model, the less computationally compensatory heuristic models are considered as an alternative to simulate travelers’ responses. The paper will contribute to travel behavior modeling research by investigating the following questions: how to measure the time pressure properly in an activity-travel day plan context? How do travelers reschedule their plans to cope with the time pressure? How would the importance of the activity affect travelers’ rescheduling behavior? What will the behavioral model be identified to describe the process of making activity-travel rescheduling decisions? How do these identified coping strategies affect the transport network? In this paper, a Mixed Heuristic Model (MHM) is employed to identify the presence of different choice heuristics through a latent class approach. The data about travelers’ activity-travel rescheduling behavior is collected via a web-based interactive survey where a fictitious scenario is created comprising multiple uncertain events on the activity or travel. The experiments are conducted in order to gain a real picture of activity-travel reschedule, considering the factor of time pressure. The identified behavioral models are then integrated into a multi-agent transport simulation model to investigate the effect of the rescheduling strategy on the transport network. The results show that an increased proportion of travelers use simpler, non-compensatory choice strategies instead of compensatory methods to cope with time pressure. Specifically, satisfying - one of the heuristic decision-making strategies - is adopted commonly since travelers tend to abandon the less important activities and keep the important ones. Furthermore, the importance of the activity is found to increase the weight of negative information when making trip-related decisions, especially route choices. When incorporating the identified non-compensatory decision-making heuristic models into the agent-based transport model, the simulation results imply that neglecting the effect of perceived time pressure may result in an inaccurate forecast of choice probability and overestimate the affectability to the policy changes.

Keywords: activity-travel rescheduling, decision making under uncertainty, mixed heuristic model, perceived time pressure, travel demand management

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Giorgio Serino

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In this paper, an advanced Nonlinear Exponential Model (NEM), able to simulate the uniaxial dynamic behavior of seismic isolators having a continuously decreasing tangent stiffness with increasing displacement in the relatively large displacements range and a hardening or softening behavior at large displacements, is presented. The mathematical model is validated by comparing the experimental force-displacement hysteresis loops obtained during cyclic tests, conducted on a helical wire rope isolator and a recycled rubber-fiber reinforced bearing, with those predicted analytically. Good agreement between the experimental and simulated results shows that the proposed model can be an effective numerical tool to predict the force-displacement relationship of seismic isolation devices within the large displacements range. Compared to the widely used Bouc-Wen model, unable to simulate the response of seismic isolators at large displacements, the proposed one allows to avoid the numerical solution of a first order nonlinear ordinary differential equation for each time step of a nonlinear time history analysis, thus reducing the computation effort. Furthermore, the proposed model can simulate the smooth transition of the hysteresis loops from small to large displacements by adopting only one set of five parameters determined from the experimental hysteresis loops having the largest amplitude.

Keywords: base isolation, hardening behavior, nonlinear exponential model, seismic isolators, softening behavior

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Authors: Oghenerume V. Edah, Damilola T. Aladejana

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Entrepreneurship Education is the process of developing and acquiring entrepreneur skills on how to identify a new business and launching the business with the realization of yielding profit optimally. It’s the process of knowing how to take risk and handle challenges that accompanies a new business without the mindset of closing it when it fails. It includes steps to take when a business is recognized, combined with acquiring resources (e.g. finances, labor, land) in the face of risk and launching the new business. Additionally, Entrepreneurship is defined as the ability and willingness to set a business in the event of making profit. It is the act of starting up a business to solve big problems or present a new life-changing solution in the society to generate profit. It’s a process where a business opportunity is identified; planned, acquired and needful steps are taken to launch a business. This involves taking up financial risk, acquiring natural resources, combined with land, capital and building up a team of people who would individually contribute or add value in order to make the new business a success. Moreover, Education is the learning of new skills or value. It’s the acquiring of knowledge and capability of doing new things. It is been able to differentiate what you know and what you don’t know yet. In this modern world, the emergence of entrepreneurship education has been magnificent. An average of 60 percent humans wants to start a business or become an entrepreneur without knowing the steps on how to startup. Moreover, many of them are good starters and they end up failing when the business is not managed well. The introduction of Entrepreneur Education in our world today would change the face of business phenomenally. It would involve the acquisition of entrepreneur skills, knowledge and attitude towards initiating a business venture. The impact of Entrepreneurship Education in our world today would increase the chances of business success because it would generate better entrepreneurs. The skills, values, concept and processes acquired through learning have changed the face of business to a positive direction globally and the impact can be felt. Entrepreneurship can be taught and also can be learnt. Like any skills it can be known.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, education, business, entrepreneur, skills

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Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

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The Wairau Plains are located in the northeast of the South Island of New Zealand, with alluvial deposits of fine-grained silts and sands combined with low-lying topography suggesting the presence of liquefiable deposits over significant portions of the region. Liquefaction manifestations were observed in past earthquakes, including the 1848 Marlborough and 1855 Wairarapa earthquakes, and more recently during the 2013 Lake Grassmere and 2016 Kaikōura earthquakes. Therefore, a good understanding of the deposits that may be susceptible to liquefaction is important for land use planning in the region and to allow developers and asset owners to appropriately address their risk. For this purpose, multiple approaches have been employed to develop regional-scale maps showing the liquefaction vulnerability categories for the region. After applying semi-qualitative criteria linked to geologic age and deposit type, the higher resolution surface mapping of geomorphologic characteristics encompassing the Wairau River and the Opaoa River was used for screening. A detailed basin geologic model developed for groundwater modelling was analysed to provide a higher level of resolution than the surface-geology based classification. This is used to identify the thickness of near-surface gravel deposits, providing an improved understanding of the presence or lack of potentially non-liquefiable crust deposits. This paper describes the methodology adopted for this project and focuses on the influence of geomorphic characteristics and analysis of the detailed geologic basin model on the liquefaction classification of the Lower Wairau Plains.

Keywords: liquefaction, earthquake, cone penetration test, mapping, liquefaction-induced damage

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Authors: Merey M. Sarsengeldin, Alexandr S. Kolokhmatov, Galiya Seidaliyeva, Alexandr Ozerov, Sanim T. Imatayeva

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This series of interdisciplinary studies is an attempt to investigate and develop a scalable model of fair socioeconomic relations on the base of blockchain using positive psychology techniques and Machine Learning algorithms for data analytics. In this particular study, we use hyperinteraction approach and intuition to investigate their influence on 'wisdom of crowds' via created mobile application which was created for the purpose of this research. Along with the public blockchain and private Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) which were elaborated by us on the base of Ethereum blockchain, a model of fair financial relations of members of DAO was developed. We developed a smart contract, so-called, Fair Price Protocol and use it for implementation of model. The data obtained from mobile application was analyzed by ML algorithms. A model was tested on football matches.

Keywords: blockchain, Naïve Bayes algorithm, hyperinteraction, intuition, wisdom of crowd, decentralized autonomous organization

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Authors: Aschalew Cherie Workneh, K. S. Hari Prasad, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha

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Due to the increase in water scarcity, the crop water stress index (CWSI) is receiving significant attention these days, especially in arid and semiarid regions, for quantifying water stress and effective irrigation scheduling. Nowadays, machine learning techniques such as neural networks are being widely used to determine CWSI. In the present study, the performance of two artificial neural networks, namely, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and Feed Forward-Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks (FF-BP-ANN), are compared while determining the CWSI of rice crop. Irrigation field experiments with varying degrees of irrigation were conducted at the irrigation field laboratory of the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, during the growing season of the rice crop. The CWSI of rice was computed empirically by measuring key meteorological variables (relative humidity, air temperature, wind speed, and canopy temperature) and crop parameters (crop height and root depth). The empirically computed CWSI was compared with SOM and FF-BP-ANN predicted CWSI. The upper and lower CWSI baselines are computed using multiple regression analysis. The regression analysis showed that the lower CWSI baseline for rice is a function of crop height (h), air vapor pressure deficit (AVPD), and wind speed (u), whereas the upper CWSI baseline is a function of crop height (h) and wind speed (u). The performance of SOM and FF-BP-ANN were compared by computing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), index of agreement (d), root mean squared error (RMSE), and coefficient of correlation (R²). It is found that FF-BP-ANN performs better than SOM while predicting the CWSI of rice crops.

Keywords: artificial neural networks; crop water stress index; canopy temperature, prediction capability

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Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark

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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.

Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution

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Authors: K. S. Vimal, D. Bodhini, K. Ramya, N. Lakshmipriya, R. M. Anjana, V. Sudha, J. A. Lovegrove, V. Mohan, V. Radha

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Gene-lifestyle interaction studies have been carried out in various populations. However, to date there are no studies in an Asian Indian population. Hence, we examined whether lifestyle factors such as diet and physical activity modify the association between fat mass and obesity–associated (FTO) gene variants and obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in an Asian Indian population. We studied 734 unrelated T2D and 884 normal glucose-tolerant (NGT) participants randomly selected from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES) in Southern India. Obesity was defined according to the World Health Organization Asia Pacific Guidelines (non-obese, BMI < 25 kg/m2; obese, BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Six single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the FTO gene (rs9940128, rs7193144, rs8050136, rs918031, rs1588413 and rs11076023) identified from recent genome-wide association studies for T2D were genotyped by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing. Dietary assessment was carried out using a validated food frequency questionnaire and physical activity was based upon the self-report. Interaction analyses were performed by including the interaction terms in the model. A joint likelihood ratio test of the main SNP effects and the SNP-diet/physical activity interaction effects was used in the linear regression analyses to maximize statistical power. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA version 13. There was a significant interaction between FTO SNP rs8050136 and carbohydrate energy percentage (Pinteraction=0.04) on obesity, where the ‘A’ allele carriers of the SNP rs8050136 had 2.46 times higher risk of obesity than those with ‘CC’ genotype (P=3.0x10-5) among individuals in the highest tertile of carbohydrate energy percentage. Furthermore, among those who had lower levels of physical activity, the ‘A’ allele carriers of the SNP rs8050136 had 1.89 times higher risk of obesity than those with ‘CC’ genotype (P=4.0x10-5). We also found a borderline interaction between SNP rs11076023 and carbohydrate energy percentage (Pinteraction=0.08) on T2D, where the ‘A’ allele carriers in the highest tertile of carbohydrate energy percentage, had 1.57 times higher risk of T2D than those with ‘TT’ genotype (P=0.002). There was also a significant interaction between SNP rs11076023 and physical activity (Pinteraction=0.03) on T2D. No further significant interactions between SNPs and macronutrient intake or physical activity on obesity and T2D were observed. In conclusion, this is the first study to provide evidence for a gene-diet and gene-physical activity interaction on obesity and T2D in an Asian Indian population. These findings suggest that the association between FTO gene variants and obesity and T2D is influenced by carbohydrate intake and physical activity levels. Greater understanding of how FTO gene influences obesity and T2D through dietary and exercise interventions will advance the development of behavioral intervention and personalised lifestyle strategies predicted to reduce the development of metabolic diseases in ‘A’ allele carriers of both SNPs in this Asian Indian population.

Keywords: dietary intake, FTO, obesity, physical activity, type 2 diabetes, Asian Indian.

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Authors: A. Buruzs, M. F. Hatwágner, L. T. Kóczy

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The aim of the present paper is to develop an integrated method that may provide assistance to decision makers during system planning, design, operation and evaluation. In order to support the realization of Circular Economy (CE), it is essential to evaluate local needs and conditions which help to select the most appropriate system components and resource needs. Each of these activities requires careful planning, however, the model of CE offers a comprehensive interdisciplinary framework. The aim of this research was to develop and to introduce a practical methodology for evaluation of local and regional opportunities to promote CE.

Keywords: circular economy, factors, fuzzy cognitive map, model reduction, sustainability

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Authors: Ana Paula Camelo, Keila Sanches

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The Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was proposed in geography literature to allow relationship in a regression model to vary over space. In Brazil, the agricultural exploitation of the Cerrado Biome is the main cause of deforestation. In this study, we propose a methodology using geostatistical methods to characterize the spatial dependence of deforestation in the Cerrado based on agricultural production indicators. Therefore, it was used the set of exploratory spatial data analysis tools (ESDA) and confirmatory analysis using GWR. It was made the calibration a non-spatial model, evaluation the nature of the regression curve, election of the variables by stepwise process and multicollinearity analysis. After the evaluation of the non-spatial model was processed the spatial-regression model, statistic evaluation of the intercept and verification of its effect on calibration. In an analysis of Spearman’s correlation the results between deforestation and livestock was +0.783 and with soybeans +0.405. The model presented R²=0.936 and showed a strong spatial dependence of agricultural activity of soybeans associated to maize and cotton crops. The GWR is a very effective tool presenting results closer to the reality of deforestation in the Cerrado when compared with other analysis.

Keywords: deforestation, geographically weighted regression, land use, spatial analysis

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Authors: Chang-Jen Lan

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Current Level of Service (LOS) index adopted in Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) for signalized intersections on surface streets is based on the intersection average delay. The delay thresholds for defining LOS grades are subjective and is unrelated to critical traffic condition. For example, an intersection delay of 80 sec per vehicle for failing LOS grade F does not necessarily correspond to the intersection capacity. Also, a specific measure of average delay may result from delay minimization, delay equality, or other meaningful optimization criteria. To that end, a reliability version of the intersection critical degree of saturation (v/c) as the LOS index is introduced. Traditionally, the level of saturation at a signalized intersection is defined as the ratio of critical volume sum (per lane) to the average saturation flow (per lane) during all available effective green time within a cycle. The critical sum is the sum of the maximal conflicting movement-pair volumes in northbound-southbound and eastbound/westbound right of ways. In this study, both movement volume and saturation flow are assumed log-normal distributions. Because, when the conditions of central limit theorem obtain, multiplication of the independent, positive random variables tends to result in a log-normal distributed outcome in the limit, the critical degree of saturation is expected to be a log-normal distribution as well. Derivation of the risk index predictive limits is complex due to the maximum and absolute value operators, as well as the ratio of random variables. A fairly accurate functional form for the predictive limit at a user-specified significant level is yielded. The predictive limit is then compared with the designated LOS thresholds for the intersection critical degree of saturation (denoted as X

Keywords: reliability analysis, level of service, intersection critical degree of saturation, risk based index

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Authors: Reza Miresmaeili, Asghar Heydari Astaraee, Fereshteh Dolati

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In the present study, an analytical model based on dislocation density model was developed to simulate grain refinement in surface mechanical attrition treatment (SMAT). The correlation between SMAT time and development in plastic strain on one hand, and dislocation density evolution, on the other hand, was established to simulate the grain refinement in SMAT. A dislocation density-based constitutive material law was implemented using VUHARD subroutine. A random sequence of shots is taken into consideration for multiple impacts model using Python programming language by utilizing a random function. The simulation technique was to model each impact in a separate run and then transferring the results of each run as initial conditions for the next run (impact). The developed Finite Element (FE) model of multiple impacts describes the coverage evolution in SMAT. Simulations were run to coverage levels as high as 4500%. It is shown that the coverage implemented in the FE model is equal to the experimental coverage. It is depicted that numerical SMAT coverage parameter is adequately conforming to the well-known Avrami model. Comparison between numerical results and experimental measurements for residual stresses and depth of deformation layers confirms the performance of the established FE model for surface engineering evaluations in SMA treatment. X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies of grain refinement, including resultant grain size and dislocation density, were conducted to validate the established model. The full width at half-maximum in XRD profiles can be used to measure the grain size. Numerical results and experimental measurements of grain refinement illustrate good agreement and show the capability of established FE model to predict the gradient microstructure in SMA treatment.

Keywords: dislocation density, grain refinement, severe plastic deformation, simulation, surface mechanical attrition treatment

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Authors: Deepa Shokeen, Bani Tamber Aeri

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Food choice is a complex process influenced by the interplay of multiple factors, including physical, socio-cultural and economic factors comprising macro or micro level food environments. While a clear understanding of the relationship between what we eat and the environmental context in which these food choices are made is still needed; it has however now been shown that food environments do play a significant role in the obesity epidemic and increasing cardio-metabolic risk factors. Evidence in other countries indicates that the food environment may strongly influence the prevalence of obesity and cardio-metabolic risk factors among young adults. Although in the Indian context, data does indicate the associations between sedentary lifestyle, stress, faulty diets but very little evidence supports the role of food environment in influencing cardio-metabolic health among employed adults. Thus, this research is required to establish how different environments affect different individuals as individuals interact with the environment on a number of levels. Methodology: The objective of the present study is to assess the effect of selected food and nutrition environments with emphasis on worksite environment and to analyse its impact on the food choices and dietary behaviour of the employees (25-45 years of age) of the organizations under study. In the proposed study an attempt will be made to randomly select various worksite environments from Delhi and NCR. The study will be conducted in two phases. In phase I, Information will be obtained on their socio-demographic profile and various factors influencing their food choices including most commonly consumed foods and most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the work place. Data will also be gathered on anthropometry (height, weight, waist circumference), biochemical parameters (lipid profile and fasting glucose), blood pressure and dietary intake. Based on the findings of phase I, a list of the most frequently visited eating outlets in and around the workplace will be prepared in Phase II. These outlets will then be subjected to nutrition environment assessment survey (NEMS). On the basis of the information gathered from phase I and phase II, influence of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice, dietary behaviour and prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors among employed adults will be assessed. Expected outcomes: The proposed study will try to ascertain the impact of selected food and nutrition environments on food choice and dietary intake of the working adults as it is important to learn how these food environments influence the eating perceptions and health behavior of the adults. In addition to this, anthropometry blood pressure and biochemical assessment of the subjects will be done to assess the prevalence of cardio-metabolic risk factors. If the findings indicate that the work environment, where most of these young adults spend their productive hours of the day, influence their health, than perhaps steps maybe needed to make these environments more conducive to health.

Keywords: food and nutrition environment, cardio-metabolic risk factors, India, worksite environment

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Authors: El-Said. I. Shabana, Mohammad S. Tayeb, Maher M. T. Qutub, Abdulraheem A. Kinsara

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Usually, phosphate deposits contain ²³⁸U and ²³²Th in addition to their decay products. Due to their different pathways in the environment, the ²³⁸U/²³²Th activity concentration ratio usually found to be greater than unity in phosphate sediments. The presence of these radionuclides creates a potential need to control exposure of workers in the mining and processing activities of the phosphate minerals in accordance with IAEA safety standards. The greatest dose to workers comes from exposure to radon, especially ²²²Rn from the uranium series, and has to be controlled. In this regard, radon (²²²Rn) was measured in the atmosphere (indoor and outdoor) of Al-Jalamid phosphate-mines working area using a portable radon-measurement instrument RAD7, in a purpose of radiation protection. Radon was measured in 61 sites inside the open phosphate mines, the phosphate upgrading facility (offices and rooms of the workers, and in some open-air sites) and in the dwellings of the workers residence-village that lies at about 3 km from the mines working area. The obtained results indicated that the average indoor radon concentration was about 48.4 Bq/m³. Inside the upgrading facility, the average outdoor concentrations were 10.8 and 9.7 Bq/m³ in the concentrate piles and crushing areas, respectively. It was 12.3 Bq/m³ in the atmosphere of the open mines. These values are comparable with the global average values. Based on the average values, the annual effective dose due to radon inhalation was calculated and risk estimates have been done. The average annual effective dose to workers due to the radon inhalation was estimated by 1.32 mSv. The potential excess risk of lung cancer mortality that could be attributed to radon, when considering the lifetime exposure, was estimated by 53.0x10^-4. The results have been discussed in detail.

Keywords: dosimetry, environmental monitoring, phosphate deposits, radiation protection, radon

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Authors: Tory Erickson

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The "Bidirectional Spacetime with Spatial Covariance and Wave-Particle Duality in Spacetime Flow" (BST-SCWPDF) Model introduces a framework aimed at unifying general relativity (GR) and quantum mechanics (QM). By proposing a concept of bidirectional spacetime, this model suggests that time can flow in more than one direction, thus offering a perspective on temporal dynamics. Integrated with spatial covariance and wave-particle duality in spacetime flow, the BST-SCWPDF Model resolves long-standing discrepancies between GR and QM. This unified theory has profound implications for quantum gravity, potentially offering insights into quantum entanglement, the collapse of the wave function, and the fabric of spacetime itself. The Bidirectional Spacetime with Spatial Covariance and Wave-Particle Duality in Spacetime Flow" (BST-SCWPDF) Model offers researchers a framework for a better understanding of theoretical physics.

Keywords: astrophysics, quantum mechanics, general relativity, unification theory, theoretical physics

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Authors: Tahmidul Islam

Abstract:

Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique has been widely used for estimating causal effect of treatment in observational studies. One major step of implementing PSM is estimating the propensity score (PS). Logistic regression model with additive linear terms of covariates is most used technique in many studies. Logistics regression model is also used with cubic splines for retaining flexibility in the model. However, choosing the functional form of the logistic regression model has been a question since the effectiveness of PSM depends on how accurately the PS been estimated. In many situations, the linearity assumption of linear logistic regression may not hold and non-linear relation between the logit and the covariates may be appropriate. One can estimate PS using machine learning techniques such as random forest, neural network etc for more accuracy in non-linear situation. In this study, an attempt has been made to compare the efficacy of Generalized Additive Model (GAM) in various linear and non-linear settings and compare its performance with usual logistic regression. GAM is a non-parametric technique where functional form of the covariates can be unspecified and a flexible regression model can be fitted. In this study various simple and complex models have been considered for treatment under several situations (small/large sample, low/high number of treatment units) and examined which method leads to more covariate balance in the matched dataset. It is found that logistic regression model is impressively robust against inclusion quadratic and interaction terms and reduces mean difference in treatment and control set equally efficiently as GAM does. GAM provided no significantly better covariate balance than logistic regression in both simple and complex models. The analysis also suggests that larger proportion of controls than treatment units leads to better balance for both of the methods.

Keywords: accuracy, covariate balances, generalized additive model, logistic regression, non-linearity, propensity score matching

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Authors: Vanessa Bennemann, Gabriela Laste, Márcia Inês Goettert

Abstract:

The gestational period is a phase in which the pregnant woman undergoes constant physiological and hormonal changes, which are part of the woman’s biological cycle, the development of the fetus, childbirth, and lactation. These are factors of response to the immunological adaptation of the human reproductive process that is directly related to the pregnancy’s well-being and development. Although most pregnancies occur without complications, about 15% of pregnant women will develop potentially fatal complications, implying maternal and fetal risk. Therefore, requiring specialized care for high-risk pregnant women (HRPW) with obstetric interventions for the survival of the mother and/or fetus. Among the risk factors that characterize HRPW are the women's age, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), autoimmune diseases, infectious diseases such as syphilis and HIV, hypertension (SAH), preeclampsia, eclampsia, HELLP syndrome, uterine contraction abnormalities, and premature placental detachment (PPD), thyroid disorders, among others. Thus, pregnancy has an impact on the thyroid gland causing changes in the functioning of the mother's thyroid gland, altering the thyroid hormone (TH) profiles and production as pregnancy progresses. Considering, throughout the gestational period, the interpretation of the results of the tests to evaluate the thyroid functioning depends on the stage in which the pregnancy is. Thyroid disorders are directly related to adverse obstetric outcomes and in child development. Therefore, the adequate release of TH is important for a pregnancy without complications and optimal fetal growth and development. Objective: Investigate the physiological effects caused by thyroid disorders in the gestational period. Methods: A search for articles indexed in PubMed, Scielo, and MDPI databases, was performed using the term “AND”, with the descriptors: Pregnancy, Thyroid. With several combinations that included: Melatonin, Thyroidopathy, Inflammatory processes, Cytokines, Anti-inflammatory, Antioxidant, High-risk pregnancy. Subsequently, the screening was performed through the analysis of titles and/or abstracts. The criteria were: including clinical studies in general, randomized or not, in the period of 10 years prior to the research, in the English literature; excluded: experimental studies, case reports, research in the development phase. Results: In the preliminary results, a total of studies (n=183) were found, (n=57) excluded, such as studies of cancer, diabetes, obesity, and skin diseases. Conclusion: To date, it has been identified that thyroid diseases can impair the fetus’s brain development. Further research is suggested on this matter to identify new substances that may have a potential therapeutic effect to aid the gestational period with thyroid diseases.

Keywords: pregnancy, thyroid, melatonin, high-risk pregnancy

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Authors: Shukri Dughman, Anthony Rossiter

Abstract:

This paper builds on earlier work which demonstrated that Model Predictive Control (MPC) may give a poor choice of default feed forward compensator. By first demonstrating the impact of future information of target changes on the performance, this paper proposes a pragmatic method for identifying the amount of future information on the target that can be utilised effectively in both finite and infinite horizon algorithms. Numerical illustrations in MATLAB give evidence of the efficacy of the proposal.

Keywords: model predictive control, tracking control, advance knowledge, feed forward

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Authors: Xiaoying Guo, Xiangyun Wang, Chunhua Jia

Abstract:

Web page has been one of the most important way of knowing the world. Humans catch a lot of information from it everyday. Thus, understanding where human looks when they surfing the web pages is rather important. In normal scenes, the down-top features and top-down tasks significantly affect humans’ eye movement. In this paper, we investigated if the conventional visual salience algorithm can properly predict humans’ visual attractive region when they viewing the web pages. First, we obtained the eye movement data when the participants viewing the web pages using an eye tracker. By the analysis of eye movement data, we studied the influence of visual saliency and thinking way on eye-movement pattern. The analysis result showed that thinking way affect human’ eye-movement pattern much more than visual saliency. Second, we compared the results of web page visual salience region extracted by Itti model and Spectral Residual (SR) model. The results showed that Spectral Residual (SR) model performs superior than Itti model by comparison with the heat map from eye movements. Considering the influence of mind habit on humans’ visual region of interest, we introduced one of the most important cue in mind habit-fixation position to improved the SR model. The result showed that the improved SR model can better predict the human visual region of interest in web pages.

Keywords: web page salience region, eye-tracker, spectral residual, visual salience

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Authors: Hakiki Kheira, Belhamiti Omar

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new compartmental fractional order model for the simulation of epidemic obesity dynamics. Using the Legendre wavelet method combined with the decoupling and quasi-linearization technique, we demonstrate the validity and applicability of our model. We also present some fractional differential illustrative examples to demonstrate the applicability and efficiency of the method. The fractional derivative is described in the Caputo sense.

Keywords: Caputo derivative, epidemiology, Legendre wavelet method, obesity

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Authors: Ghasem Sharifi, Hamed Shahmohamadi Ousaloo, Milad Azimi, Mehran Mirshams

Abstract:

The ever-increasing use of satellites demands a search for increasingly accurate and reliable pointing systems. Reaction wheels are rotating devices used commonly for the attitude control of the spacecraft since provide a wide range of torque magnitude and high reliability. The numerical modeling of this device can significantly enhance the accuracy of the satellite control in space. Modeling the wheel rotation in the presence of the various frictions is one of the critical parts of this approach. This paper presents a Dynamic Model Control of a Reaction Wheel (DMCR) in the current control mode. In current-mode, the required current is delivered to the coils in order to achieve the desired torque. During this research, all the friction parameters as viscous and coulomb, motor coefficient, resistance and voltage constant are identified. In order to model identification of a reaction wheel, numerous varying current commands apply on the particular wheel to verify the estimated model. All the parameters of DMCR are identified by classical Levenberg-Marquardt (CLM) optimization method. The experimental results demonstrate that the developed model has an appropriate precise and can be used in the satellite control simulation.

Keywords: experimental modeling, friction parameters, model identification, reaction wheel

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Authors: Made Kurnia Widiastuti Giri, Nyoman Kanca, Arie Swastini, Bambang Purwanto

Abstract:

Aim: Waria transgenders are a phenomenon whose existence is undeniable. The sexual behaviours of waria transgenders belong to the groups of high-risk STDs infections, especially HIV/AIDS. The present study was aimed at finding out the general idea of the existence of waria transgenders in Singaraja, their sexual transactions, their sexual behaviours, and at exploring the factors affecting their sexual behaviours along with their participation in regular reproduction health control. Methods: The subjects of the present research were male-to-female transgenders living in the town of Singaraja. The research applied a qualitative approach. Data collection in this research was conducted through in-depth interview and observation. Results: The results of the study exposed 1) the existence of waria transgender community in Singaraja observed from their active participation in social events such as taking the roles of counsellors in the campaign of prevention and control of HIV/AIDS with the Local Commission of AIDS Control and other foundations; 2) the sexual services provided by waria transgenders which were performed in squeeze method, oral and anal sex which could be categorized as HIV/AIDS high-risk sexual behaviours, while the consistency in doing safe sex among the trangenders in Singaraja showed that most of the waria transgenders (80%) were aware of the urgency of using condoms during sexual intercourse; and 3) the low participation of the waria transgenders in Singaraja in regular reproduction health check up at the local Centre of Public Health Service was caused by their negative perception about being examined by female doctors. Conclucions: Waria in singaraja categorized as HIV/AIDS high-risk sexual behaviours but they do have consistency in doing safe sex by using condoms. They have a negative psychological perception about being examined by female doctors.

Keywords: waria transgenders, sexual behaviours, reproduction health, hiv/aids

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Authors: Chaitanya R. Mali, V. Vinod, Ashwin W. Patwardhan

Abstract:

Design of long vertical steam generator (SG) tubes in nuclear power plant involves an understanding of different aspects of flow boiling phenomenon such as flow instabilities, flow regimes, dry out, critical heat flux, pressure drop, etc. The knowledge of the prediction of local thermal hydraulic characteristics is necessary to understand these aspects. For this purpose, the methodology has been developed which covers all the flow boiling regimes to model full range flow boiling phenomenon. In this methodology, the vertical tube is divided into four sections based on vapor fraction value at the end of each section. Different modeling strategies have been applied to the different sections of the vertical tube. Computational fluid dynamics simulations have been performed on a vertical SG tube of 0.0126 m inner diameter and 23 m length. The thermal hydraulic parameters such as vapor fraction, liquid temperature, heat transfer coefficient, pressure drop, heat flux distribution have been analyzed for different designed heat duties (1.1 MW (20%) to 3.3 MW (60%)) and flow conditions (10 % to 80 %). The sensitivity of different boiling parameters such as bubble departure diameter, nucleation site density, bubble departure frequency on the thermal hydraulic parameters was also studied. Flow instability has been observed at 20 % designed heat duty and 20 % flow conditions.

Keywords: thermal hydraulics, boiling, vapor fraction, sensitivity

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Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Jin-Cheng Fu, Chia-En Feng

Abstract:

In recent years, the rapid development of urban land in Taiwan has led to the constant increase of the areas of impervious surface, which has increased the risk of waterlogging during heavy rainfall. Therefore, in recent years, promoting runoff allocation responsibilities has often been used as a means of reducing regional flooding. In this study, the single catchment area covering both urban and rural land as the study area is discussed. Based on Storm Water Management Model, urban and rural land in a single catchment area was explored to develop the runoff allocation responsibilities according to their respective control regulation on land use. The impacts of runoff increment and reduction in sub-catchment area were studied to understand the impact of highly developed urban land on the reduction of flood risk of rural land at the back end. The results showed that the rainfall with 1 hour short delay of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years return period. If the study area was fully developed, the peak discharge at the outlet would increase by 24.46% -22.97% without runoff allocation responsibilities. The front-end urban land would increase runoff from back-end of rural land by 76.19% -46.51%. However, if runoff allocation responsibilities were carried out in the study area, the peak discharge could be reduced by 58.38-63.08%, which could make the front-end to reduce 54.05% -23.81% of the peak flow to the back-end. In addition, the researchers found that if it was seen from the perspective of runoff allocation responsibilities of per unit area, the residential area of urban land would benefit from the relevant laws and regulations of the urban system, which would have a better effect of reducing flood than the residential land in rural land. For rural land, the development scale of residential land was generally small, which made the effect of flood reduction better than that of industrial land. Agricultural land requires a large area of land, resulting in the lowest share of the flow per unit area. From the point of the planners, this study suggests that for the rural land around the city, its responsibility should be assigned to share the runoff. And setting up rain water storage facilities in the same way as urban land, can also take stock of agricultural land resources to increase the ridge of field for flood storage, in order to improve regional disaster reduction capacity and resilience.

Keywords: runoff allocation responsibilities, land use, flood mitigation, SWMM

Procedia PDF Downloads 89