Search results for: forecasting methodologies review

Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Fabiha Tanzeem

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BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis is a skeletal disease that is associated with a reduction in bone mass and microstructures of the bone and deterioration of bone tissue. Fragility fracture due to osteoporosis is the most significant complication of osteoporosis. The increasing prevalence of fragility fractures presents a growing burden on the global economy. There is a rapidly evolving need to improve awareness of the costs associated with these types of fractures and to review current policies and practices for the prevention and management of the disease. This systematic review will identify and describe the direct and indirect costs associated with osteoporotic fragility fractures from a global perspective from the included studies. The review will also find out whether the costs required for the treatment of fragility fractures due to osteoporosis impose an economic burden on the global healthcare system. METHODS: Four major databases were systematically searched for direct and indirect costs of osteoporotic fragility fracture studies in the English Language. PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase and Google Scholar were searched for suitable articles published between 1990 and July 2020. RESULTS: The original search yielded 1166 papers; from these, 27 articles were selected for this review according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. In the 27 studies, the highest direct costs were associated with the treatment of pelvic fractures, with the majority of the expenditure due to hospitalization and surgical treatments. It is also observed that most of the articles are from developed countries. CONCLUSION: This review indicates the significance of the economic burden of osteoporosis globally, although more research needs to be done in developing countries. In the treatment of fragility fractures, direct costs were the main reported expenditure in this review. The healthcare costs incurred globally can be significantly reduced by implementing measures to effectively prevent the disease. Raising awareness in children and adults by improving the quality of the information available and standardising policies and planning of services requires further research.

Keywords: systematic review, osteoporosis, cost of illness

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Authors: Mercy D. Chirwa, Juliet Nyasulu, Lebisti Modiba, Makombo Ganga-Limando

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Maternal death review is an initiative that provides a deeper understanding of the causes and circumstances sorounding of maternal deaths in Malawi and globally. Midwives are frontline members of the healthcare team and have stories about what pregnant women go through as such they are better placed to contribute to these reviews. Despite midwives’ participation as members of the facility-based maternal death review team, maternal deaths continues to occur. A lot has been documented around processes involved in maternal review, however, not much has been written around challenges experienced by midwives in maternal death review. This study explored the challenges faced by midwives in the implementation of maternal death reviews in the context of the healthcare system in Malawi. Methodology: This was a qualitative exploratory study design. Focus group discussions and individual face-to-face interviews were used to collect data in the study. A total of 40 midwives, who met the inclusion criteria, participated in the study. Data was analysed manually using a thematic content procedure. Findings: The four major challenges identified were: knowledge and skill gaps; lack of leadership and accountability; lack of institutional political will and inconsistency in conducting FBMDR, impeding midwives’ effective contribution to the implementation of maternal death review. The practical solutions and recommendations that emerged were: need-based knowledge and skills updates, supportive leadership, effective and efficient interdisciplinary work ethics, and sustained availability of material and human resources. Conclusion: Midwives have the highest potential to contribute to the reduction of maternal deaths. Practice development strategies are required to improve their practice in all the areas they are challenged with.

Keywords: facility-based maternal death review, maternal deaths, midwife, midwife challenges

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Authors: Fadzayi M.Maruza

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The conversation about diversity in the African academy focuses on the need for an international and ethnically diverse population of scholars and students. Operationalising the concept of cognitive diversity offers us an opportunity to broaden our conception of who can know and who can proclaim knowledge by availing new understandings of what knowledge is and how it is made. Limited attention is paid to the value of diversity generated by cognitive disabilities in the African academy. The inclusion of persons with minds labelled disabled in African academia requires an epistemology of disability to reform the still dominant notion of the expert and scholar as an able-bodied and hyper-rational in African academia. This review wants to explore how cognitive disabilities have been represented in higher education research in Africa or has the African academy reinforced ignorance by promoting an able-bodied academia. The review aims to tackle its exploratory objective by using Malcom Tights framework. The main questions this paper would focus on are: (I)What are the major disability themes and concerns discussed in the disability-related articles? (II)What are the major methods or methodologies used to address the topic in the papers? (III)What are the levels of analysis the papers focus on? (IV)How do higher education researchers define and represent cognitive disabilities in higher education research in Africa? To answer the exploratory questions that are aimed at mapping the disability-related higher education research landscape, Malcolm Tights’ framework is seen as most appropriate. In addition to a thematic categorization, that shall be made after reviewing of published empirical studies on disability in African higher education from the period 2010 – 2017. A synthesis of the findings and implications of African disability studies relating to students with cognitive disabilities in the African Academy will be provided using the categories suggested by Tight as a benchmark. Data for the proposed work shall be taken from well-reputed higher education journals between 2010 and 2017.Using the keyword ‘Disability’ in the titles, abstracts and keywords section of journal articles, a selection of disability-focused higher education articles shall be compiled for analysis regarding cognitive disability. It has to be noted as a limitation that the word Disability might not be sufficient to investigate the topic for there can be many more specific disabilities concerns the researchers would discuss. Therefore, the paper is only intended to give a bird’s eye view of cognitive disability in higher education research and therefore is not comprehensive. The paper is expected to shed some light for me, as a beginning researcher, and other researchers like myself as to what has been the focus of higher education researchers about cognitive disability in the African academy. Keywords: Cognitive diversity, cognitive disability, disability, higher education.

Keywords: cognitive disability, cognitive diversity, disability, higher education

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Authors: Sozon, Pok Wei Fong, Sia Bee Chuan, Omar Hamdan Mohammad

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Owing to the widespread phenomenon of plagiarism and cheating in higher education institutions (HEIs), it is now difficult to ensure academic integrity and quality education. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the issue by shifting educational institutions into virtual teaching and assessment mode. Thus, there is a need to carry out an extensive and holistic systematic review of the literature to highlight plagiarism and cheating in both prevalence and form among HEIs. This paper systematically reviews the literature concerning academic plagiarism and cheating in HEIs to determine the most common forms and suggest strategies for resolution and boosting the academic integrity of students. The review included 45 articles and publications for the period from February 12, 2018, to September 12, 2022, in the Scopus database aligned with the Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines in the selection, filtering, and reporting of the papers for review from which a conclusion can be drawn. Based on the results, out of the studies reviewed, 48% of the quantitative results of students were plagiarized and obtained through cheating, with 84% coming from the fields of Humanities. Moreover, Psychology and Social Sciences studies accumulated 9% and 7% articles respectively. Based on the results, individual factors, institutional factors, and social and cultural factors have contributed to plagiarism and cheating cases in HEIs. The resolution of this issue can be the establishment of ethical and moral development initiatives and modern academic policies and guidelines supported by technological strategies of testing.

Keywords: plagiarism, cheating, systematic review, academic integrity

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Authors: Robert L. Williamson, Baris Çetin

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Turkey, due to its geographic location, finds itself the world’s largest host to refugees worldwide, and this nation has done much to educate their refugee population. Turkey’s considerable experience can inform other nations educating refugee children. This systematic review of the literature examined the context, barriers, and responses to successfully educating refugee children in Turkey. Additionally, because some refugee children may have an identified or unidentified disability, the educational experiences of refugee children with disabilities in Turkey were an ancillary focus. Results indicated that while some educational challenges have been successfully met within Turkey, others remain. Additionally, the education of children with disabilities in Turkey is largely unexamined.

Keywords: disability, education, refugee, systematic review, Turkey

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Authors: Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Cuong Manh Nguyen

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In order to simulate and reproduce the operational characteristics of a dam visually, it is necessary to capture the displacement at different measurement points and analyze the observed movement data promptly to forecast the dam safety. The accuracy of forecasts is further improved by applying machine learning methods to data analysis progress. In this study, the horizontal displacement monitoring data of the Ialy hydroelectric dam was applied to machine learning algorithms: Gaussian processes, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, and the M5-rules algorithm for modelling and forecasting of horizontal displacement of the Ialy hydropower dam (Vietnam), respectively, for analysing. The database which used in this research was built by collecting time series of data from 2006 to 2021 and divided into two parts: training dataset and validating dataset. The final results show all three algorithms have high performance for both training and model validation, but the MLPs is the best model. The usability of them are further investigated by comparison with a benchmark models created by multi-linear regression. The result show the performance which obtained from all the GP model, the MLPs model and the M5-Rules model are much better, therefore these three models should be used to analyze and predict the horizontal displacement of the dam.

Keywords: Gaussian processes, horizontal displacement, hydropower dam, Ialy dam, M5-Rules, multi-layer perception neural networks

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Authors: Sandra Cecilia Bautista-Rodríguez, Vladimir Melgarejo

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Climate change, loss of ecosystems, increasing poverty, increasing marginalization of rural communities and declining food security are global issues that require urgent attention. In this regard, a great deal of research has focused on how agroecosystems respond to these challenges as they provide ecosystem services (ES) that lead to higher levels of resilience, adaptation, productivity and self-sufficiency. Hence, the valuing of ecosystem services plays an important role in the decision-making process for the design and management of agroecosystems. This paper aims to define the link between ecosystem service valuation methods and ES value dimensions in agroecosystems from ecological economics and agroecology. The method used to identify valuation methodologies was a literature review in the fields of Agroecology and Ecological Economics, based on a strategy of information search and classification. The conceptual framework of the work is based on the multidimensionality of value, considering the social, ecological, political, technological and economic dimensions. Likewise, the valuation process requires consideration of the ecosystem function associated with ES, such as regulation, habitat, production and information functions. In this way, valuation methods for ES in agroecosystems can integrate more than one value dimension and at least one ecosystem function. The results allow correlating the ecosystem functions with the ecosystem services valued, and the specific tools or models used, the dimensions and valuation methods. The main methodologies identified are multi-criteria valuation (1), deliberative - consultative valuation (2), valuation based on system dynamics modeling (3), valuation through energy or biophysical balances (4), valuation through fuzzy logic modeling (5), valuation based on agent-based modeling (6). Amongst the main conclusions, it is highlighted that the system dynamics modeling approach has a high potential for development in valuation processes, due to its ability to integrate other methods, especially multi-criteria valuation and energy and biophysical balances, to describe through causal cycles the interrelationships between ecosystem services, the dimensions of value in agroecosystems, thus showing the relationships between the value of ecosystem services and the welfare of communities. As for methodological challenges, it is relevant to achieve the integration of tools and models provided by different methods, to incorporate the characteristics of a complex system such as the agroecosystem, which allows reducing the limitations in the processes of valuation of ES.

Keywords: ecological economics, agroecosystems, ecosystem services, valuation of ecosystem services

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Authors: Deniz Sahin

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Growing concern for the presence and contamination of heavy metals in our water supplies has steadily increased over the last few years. A number of specialized technologies including precipitation, coagulation/flocculation, ion exchange, cementation, electrochemical operations, have been developed for the removal of heavy metals from wastewater. However, these technologies have many limitations in the application, such as high cost, low separation efficiency, Recently, numerous approaches have been investigated to overcome these difficulties and membrane filtration, advanced oxidation technologies (AOPs), and UV irradiation etc. are sufficiently developed to be considered as alternative treatments. Many factors come into play when selecting wastewater treatment technology, such as type of wastewater, operating conditions, economics etc. This study describes these various treatment technologies employed for heavy metal removal. Advantages and disadvantages of these technologies are also compared to highlight their current limitations and future research needs. For example, we investigated the applicability of the ultrafiltration technology for treating of heavy metal ions (e.g., Cu(II), Pb(II), Cd(II), Zn(II)) from synthetic wastewater solutions. Results shown that complete removal of metal ions, could be achieved.

Keywords: heavy metal, treatment methodologies, water, water treatment

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Authors: Chantelle Francis, Karen McKenzie, Charlotte Emmerson

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In the context of the rise in mental health difficulties amongst pupils, this review explores the factors that have been indicated as affecting psychological well-being in mainstream school contexts. Search terms relating to school-based psychological well-being were entered into five databases, and twenty-two studies were included in the review. The results suggested that pupil psychological well-being is affected by both direct and indirect factors. The former included a sense of belonging and inclusion, relationships with teachers, and academic attainment. The latter included family socioeconomic status, whole-school approaches, and individual differences factors, such as gender and Special Educational Needs. The implications for policymakers and practitioners are discussed.

Keywords: psychological wellbeing, mainstream schools, special educational needs, school-based wellbeing

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Authors: Karin Johansson, Ola Johansson

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Recycling is an important aspect of a sustainable society and depends to a large extent on consumers’ willingness to provide the voluntary work needed to take the first critical step in many return logistics systems. Based on a systematic review of articles on recycling behavior, this paper presents and discusses the findings in relation to Fogg’s Behavioral Model (FBM). Through the analysis of a corpus of 72 articles, the most important research contributions on recycling behavior are summarized and discussed. The choice of using FBM as a framework provides a new way of viewing previous research findings, and aids in identifying knowledge gaps. Based on the review, this work identifies and discusses four areas of potential interest for future research.

Keywords: recycling, reverse logistics, solid waste management, sustainability

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Authors: Deepak Singh

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AI technology is rapidly being integrated into the healthcare system, bringing many ethical and social implications. This literature review examines the various aspects of this phenomenon, focusing on the ethical considerations of using AI in healthcare, such as how it might affect patient autonomy, privacy, and doctor-patient relationships. Furthermore, the review considers the potential social implications of AI in Healthcare, such as the potential for automation to reduce the availability of healthcare jobs and the potential to widen existing health inequalities. The literature suggests potential benefits and drawbacks to using AI in healthcare, and it is essential to consider the ethical and social implications before implementation. It is concluded that more research is needed to understand the full implications of using AI in healthcare and that ethical regulations must be in place to ensure patient safety and the technology's responsible use.

Keywords: AI, healthcare, telemedicine, telehealth, ethics, security, privacy, patient, rights, safety

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Authors: Thomas A. Fuller

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Over the past fifteen years, virtual schooling has been introduced and implemented in varying degrees throughout the public education system in the United States. It is possible in some states for students to voluntarily take all of their course load online, without ever having to step in a classroom. Experts foresee a dramatic rise in the number of courses taken online by public school students in the United States, with some predicting that by 2019 as many as 50% of public high school courses will be delivered online. This electronic delivery of public education offers tremendous potential to the scientific community because it calls for innovation and is funded by public school revenue. Public accountability provides a ready supply of statistical data for measuring the progress of virtual schools as they are implemented into the public school arena. This allows for a survey of the current use of virtual schooling through examination of past statistical data, as well as forecasting forward for future years based upon this past data. Virtual schooling is on the rise in the United States, but its growth has been tempered by practical problems of implementation. The greatest and best use of virtual schooling thus far has been to supplement the courses offered by public schools (e.g., offering unique language courses, elective courses, and games-based math and science courses). The weaknesses of virtual schooling lay in the problematic accountability in allowing students to take courses online at home and the lack of supportive infrastructure in the public school arena. Virtual schooling holds great promise for the public school education system in the United States, as well as the scientific community. Online courses allow students access to a much greater catalog of courses than is offered through classroom instruction in their local public school. This promising sector needs assistance from the scientific community in implementing new pedagogical methodologies.

Keywords: virtual schools, online classroom, electronic delivery, technological innovation

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: adaptive complex systems, X-Events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number

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Authors: Damian Gordon, Paul Doyle, Anna Becevel, Júlia Vilafranca Molero, Cinta Gascon, Arianna Vitiello, Tina Baloh

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It has long been recognized that the creation of any teaching content can be enhanced if the development process follows a pre-defined approach, which is often referred to as an instructional design methodology. These methodologies typically define a number of stages, or phases, that an educator should undertake to help ensure the quality of the final teaching content that is developed. In this paper, we present an instructional design methodology that is focused specifically on the introduction of blended resources into a heretofore bricks-and-mortar course. To achieve this, research was undertaken concerning a range of models of instructional design, as well as literature covering some of the key challenges and “pain points” of blending. Following this, our model, the BL-5D model, is presented, which incorporates some key questions at each stage of this five-stage methodology to guide the development process. Finally, a discussion of some of the key themes and issues that have been uncovered in this work is presented, as well as a template for a blended learning case study that emerged from this approach.

Keywords: blended learning, challenges of blended learning, design methodologies, instructional design

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Authors: Hanh Thi My Nguyen, Phuong Thu Dinh

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People with intellectual disability are at high risk for sexual abuse. The reasons may originate from their communication skills deficits, lack of skills and knowledge to protect themselves from sexual abuse, or limited access to sexual abuse prevention programs. This article aims to present a systematic review about strategies for preventing sexual abuse for young people with intellectual disability. A range of articles in 10 years from 2009 to 2018 are searched by using online database. 5 papers are included for the final review. The results of this comprehensive literature review showed that there are two main strategies used: programs designed for people with intellectual, including evaluation on sex education programs; and sexual education program for parents of children with intellectual disability. However, none of the papers were conducted in low-and middle-income countries. Therefore, cautions should be taken when it comes to interpret these findings. The findings of studies showed that participants increased their awareness and skills for protecting themselves from sexual abuse after participating in the programs. It is also recommended that more effective evidence-based programs should be developed.

Keywords: intellectual disability, prevention, sexual abuse, sexual education program

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Authors: Qais H. Alsafasfeh

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The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model. The aim of this paper is to provide a forecast of the peak demand for the next 15 years for electrical distribution companies. The proposed methodology provides both the peak demand and its location for the next 15 years. This paper describes the Spatial Load Forecasting model used, the information provided by electrical distribution company in Jordan, the workflow followed, the parameters used and the assumptions made to run the model.

Keywords: load forecast, peak demand, spatial load, electrical distribution

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Authors: Onyeka Nkwonta, Theo Haupt, Karana Padayachee

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This study aims primarily to identify potential causes of the bottlenecks in the public sector that affect delivery and formulate evidence-based interventions to improve delivery and management of infrastructure projects. An initial literature review was carried out on infrastructural development and delivery in South Africa, with the aim to formulate evidence-based interventions to improve delivery within the sector. The infrastructure delivery management model was developed to map out best practice delivery processes. These will become the backbone on which improvement initiatives that will be developed within participating stakeholders. The model will, in turn, support a range of methodologies, including the risk system and a knowledge management framework. It will also look at key challenges facing departments with the ability to ensure knowledge and skills transfer at various sectors. The research is limited because the findings were based on existing literature. This study adopted an indirect approach for infrastructure management by focussing on the challenges faced and approaches adopted to overcome these challenges. This may narrow the consideration of some of the viewpoints, thereby limiting the richness of experience available to this research.

Keywords: infrastructure, management, challenges, South Africa

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Authors: Keneilwe Maremi, Marlien Herselman, Adele Botha

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The main purpose and focus of this paper are to determine the Interoperability Maturity Models to consider when using School Management Systems (SMS). The importance of this is to inform and help schools with knowing which Interoperability Maturity Model is best suited for their SMS. To address the purpose, this paper will apply a scoping review to ensure that all aspects are provided. The scoping review will include papers written from 2012-2019 and a comparison of the different types of Interoperability Maturity Models will be discussed in detail, which includes the background information, the levels of interoperability, and area for consideration in each Maturity Model. The literature was obtained from the following databases: IEEE Xplore and Scopus, the following search engines were used: Harzings, and Google Scholar. The topic of the paper was used as a search term for the literature and the term ‘Interoperability Maturity Models’ was used as a keyword. The data were analyzed in terms of the definition of Interoperability, Interoperability Maturity Models, and levels of interoperability. The results provide a table that shows the focus area of concern for each Maturity Model (based on the scoping review where only 24 papers were found to be best suited for the paper out of 740 publications initially identified in the field). This resulted in the most discussed Interoperability Maturity Model for consideration (Information Systems Interoperability Maturity Model (ISIMM) and Organizational Interoperability Maturity Model for C2 (OIM)).

Keywords: interoperability, interoperability maturity model, school management system, scoping review

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Authors: Bochen Jia, Francesco Zhu

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People are constantly surprised at how real and immersive virtual reality (VR) is, even though the technology is still rudimentary, and we are only scratching the surface of its possibilities. Therefore, this literature review built a body of knowledge of existing technology that can be used to improve immersiveness in VR. For this paper, "Sense of Presence (SoP)" was chosen as the terminology to describe immersiveness in VR. Eight studies that tested VR technologies were identified. Many other studies were included to back up the incentives behind these technologies. VR technologies include vibration, airflow, thermal components, EMS, and quadcopters. Study results from selected papers were analyzed, compared, and generally positive. Seven studies had positive results, and only one had negative results. Vibration is the most effective option to improve SoP.

Keywords: virtual reality, sense of presence, self-awareness, literature review

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Authors: S. Wietrzychowski

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This systematic review incorporates concepts used in the field of positive psychology in order to integrate important elements into suicide prevention programs for children and adolescents. The goal of this review is to help students and professionals gain insight to available prevention programs for suicide and to incorporate aspects of positive psychology into these programs. Evidence-based interventions such as Positive Youth Development will be discussed in detail in its relation to prevention and positive psychology. Concepts such as hope, optimism, coping, and resilience will be related to these interventions in order to improve these interventions. The review will also explain how these programs can help prevent suicidal thoughts and/or behaviors. Research on mentorship programs and early intervention programs will be included and related to the aforementioned positive psychology concepts. Since children and adolescents are such a vulnerable population, the review will highlight specific considerations for working with children in order to prevent risk factors for suicide and to build protective factors. This review will discuss the effectiveness of school-based programs that are integrated with positive psychology. Elements of these programs that have been shown to be most effective in preventing suicide in schools will also be identified. As a result of this presentation, participants will be able to 1) List at least 2 evidence-based suicide prevention programs, 2) Understand the connection between specific positive psychology concepts and suicide prevention, 3) Identify at least 3 factors which protect against suicide, 4) Describe at least 3 risk factors for suicide, and 5) Think critically about the positive elements of suicide prevention programs.

Keywords: children, adolescents, suicide, positive

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Authors: Rashad Al Araj, Adil K. Tamimi

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Concrete, despite being one of the most produced materials in the world, still has weaknesses and drawbacks. Significant concern of the cementitious materials in structural applications is their quasi-brittle behavior, which causes the material to crack and lose its durability. One of the very recently proposed mitigations for this problem is the implementation of nanotechnology in the concrete mix by adding carbon nanotubes (CNTs) to it. CNTs can enhance the critical mechanical properties of concrete as a structural material. Thus, this paper demonstrates a state-of-the-art review of reinforcing concrete with CNTs, emphasizing on the structural performance. It also goes over the properties of CNTs alone, the present methods and costs associated with producing them, the possible special applications of concretes reinforced with CNTs, the key challenges and drawbacks that this new technology still encounters, and the most reliable practices and methodologies to produce CNT-reinforced concrete in the lab. This work has shown that the addition of CNTs to the concrete mix in percentages as low as 0.25% weight of cement could increase the flexural strength and toughness of concrete by more than 45% and 25%, respectively, and enhance other durability-related properties, given that an effective dispersion of CNTs in the cementitious mix is achieved. Since nano reinforcement for cementitious materials is a new technology, many challenges have to be tackled before it becomes practiced at the mass level.

Keywords: sustainability, carbon nano tube, microsilica, concrete

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Herlena Hayati, Diyan Reni Jayathi, Hairida Anggun, Citra Amelia

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This systematic review research is aimed to find out anemia maternal during pregnancy as a risk factor of low birth weight. This research was done by searching some journals which have associated to maternal anemia during pregnancy with low birth weight that had been published in journal accreditation and scopus index. Study literature that researcher had been done by March – April 2016 through online library of UI. The journals that had been selected according to inclusive criteria and exclusive criteria had been through the critial appraisal process. This systematic review towards 4 journals that had been selected and published showed the significant result statistically that anemia maternal is one of the risk factors which causes low birth weight. Anemia maternal on the first-trimester pregnancy showed significant association with low birth weight. Moderate anemia and severe anemia also showed significant association with low birth weight. Meanwhile, mild anemia doesn’t have an association with low birth weight. The conclusion of this study is anemia maternal (as an independent risk factor) have an influence towards low birth weight.

Keywords: anemia maternal, low birth weight, pregnancy, systematic review

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Authors: Hui Wang, Huan Zhang

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This study uses systematic review and qualitative comparative analysis methods to comprehensively inquire about the recent street-level policy entrepreneurship research, to identify the characteristics and lessons we can learn from 20 years of street-level policy entrepreneurship literature, and the relations between political contexts and street-level policy entrepreneurs’ strategies. Using data from a systematic review of street-level policy entrepreneurship literature, we identify the sub-components of different political contexts and core strategies of street-level policy entrepreneurs and estimate the configurational relations between different political settings and street-level policy entrepreneurs’ strategies. Our results show that street-level policy entrepreneurs display social acuity, define the problem, and build team strategies when policy or political streams dominate. Street-level policy entrepreneurs will use lead-by-example strategies when both policy and political streams dominate. Furthermore, street-level policy entrepreneurs will use bureaucratic strategies, even if no stream dominates in the political context.

Keywords: policy entrepreneurs, qualitative comparative analysis, street-level bureaucracy, systematic review

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

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The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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Authors: Najiya Omar, Hamed Aly, Timothy Little

Abstract:

The optimal size of a photovoltaic (PV) array is considered a critical factor in designing an efficient PV system due to the dependence of the PV cell performance on temperature. A high temperature can lead to voltage losses of solar panels, whereas a low temperature can cause voltage overproduction. There are two possible scenarios of the inverter’s operation in which they are associated with the erroneous calculations of the number of PV panels: 1) If the number of the panels is scant and the temperature is high, the minimum voltage required to operate the inverter will not be reached. As a result, the inverter will shut down. 2) Comparably, if the number of panels is excessive and the temperature is low, the produced voltage will be more than the maximum limit of the inverter which can cause the inverter to get disconnected or even damaged. This article aims to assess theoretical and practical methodologies to calculate size and determine the topology of a PV array. The results are validated by applying an experimental evaluation for a 100 kW Grid-connected PV system for a location in Halifax, Nova Scotia and achieving a satisfactory system performance compared to the previous work done.

Keywords: sizing PV panels, theoretical and practical methodologies, topology of PV array, grid-connected PV

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Authors: Sulastriningsih Djumingin

Abstract:

This study has some objectives. It aims at describing the ability of the second-grade students to write review text without applying the Lesson Study model at SMPN 18 Makassar. Second, it seeks to describe the ability of the second-grade students to write review text by applying the Lesson Study model at SMPN 18 Makassar. Third, it aims at testing the effectiveness of the Lesson Study model in writing review text at SMPN 18 Makassar. This research was true experimental design with posttest Only group design involving two groups consisting of one class of the control group and one class of the experimental group. The research populations were all the second-grade students at SMPN 18 Makassar amounted to 250 students consisting of 8 classes. The sampling technique was purposive sampling technique. The control class was VIII2 consisting of 30 students, while the experimental class was VIII8 consisting of 30 students. The research instruments were in the form of observation and tests. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistical techniques and inferential statistical techniques with t-test types processed using SPSS 21 for windows. The results shows that: (1) of 30 students in control class, there are only 14 (47%) students who get the score more than 7.5, categorized as inadequate; (2) in the experimental class, there are 26 (87%) students who obtain the score of 7.5, categorized as adequate; (3) the Lesson Study models is effective to be applied in writing review text. Based on the comparison of the ability of the control class and experimental class, it indicates that the value of t-count is greater than the value of t-table (2.411> 1.667). It means that the alternative hypothesis (H1) proposed by the researcher is accepted.

Keywords: application, lesson study, review text, writing

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Authors: M. Illias Kanchan

Abstract:

The death of a woman during pregnancy and childbirth is not only a health issue, but also a matter of social injustice. This study makes an attempt to explore the association between maternal death and associated factors in West Bengal using the approaches of facility-based and community-based maternal death review. Bivariate and binary logistic regression analysis have been performed to understand the causes and circumstances of maternal deaths in West Bengal. Delay in seeking care was the major contributor in maternal deaths, near about one-third women died due to this factor. The most common cause of maternal death is found to be hypertensive disorders of pregnancy or eclampsia. We believe that these deaths can be averted by reducing hypertensive disorders of pregnancy or eclampsia.

Keywords: maternal death, facility-based, community-based, review, west Bengal, eclampsia

Procedia PDF Downloads 405