Search results for: absorbed dose rate
8942 An Open-Label Phase I Clinical Study: Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacodynamics of Mutant Collagenase Injection in Adults for Localized Fat Reduction
Authors: Yong Cang
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RJV001 is a subcutaneous injection containing mutated recombinant Collagenase H (ColH), leading to disruption of collagen matrix in adipose tissue and programmed cell death of adipocytes. Here we reported our clinical investigation of the safety, tolerance and pharmacodynamics of localized RJV001 injection into healthy human abdominal fat tissues (NCT04821648, Arizona Research Center). Investigate the safety, tolerance and clinical pharmacodynamics of subcutaneous RJV001 in humans. In the dose-escalating study, 18 subjects completed the study, 100% female, 78% white, with a mean age of 42[±9.9]. All three tested dose (0.05, 0.075 and 0.15 mg/injection), up to 30 injections, were safe and well-tolerated. Bruising and tenderness to palpation, mild to moderate, were the most frequent local skin reactions but nearly all resolved within 30 days. Additionally, physician-monitored ultrasound measurement showed that a reduction in abdominal fat tissue thickness was consistently observed in Cohort C (0.075, 0.15 mg/injection, 30injections), with a mean reduction of 7.37 [± 2.020] mm. Based on this clinical study, RJV001 has been advanced to phase II clinical studies. In the dose-escalating study, subcutaneously administered RJV001 was safe and well-tolerated in healthy adults up to 0.15 mg/injection, 30 injections. Fat reduction and adipocytolysis were observed by ultrasound measurements and histological analysis for exploratory purposes.Keywords: fat reduction, mutant collagenase, clinical trial, subcutaneous injection
Procedia PDF Downloads 998941 Evaluation of Adequacy of Caspofungin Prescription in a Tunisian Hospital Cohort
Authors: Mariem Meddeb Sidhom, Souhayel Hedfi, Rjaibia Houda, Mehdi Dridi, Mohamed Ali Yousfi, Sâadia Gargouri
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Considering the important increase in costs of caspofungin treatments and ahead the evolution of its indication, pharmacy department was prompted to realize a review of the adequacy of prescriptions in the medical intensive care units (ICU). A retrospective observational study was conducted in Tunis military hospital concerning ICU prescriptions of caspofungin from 2008 until 2013. A pharmacist had returned to the patient’s medical records to collect data and to the microbiology department for parasitological results. The adequacy of prescriptions was evaluated by a pharmacist and an infectiologist parasitologist, referring to predefined scale of criteria resuming the indications of the marketing authorization (MA) and grade AI-AII of the guidelines of the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA). Sixty two ICU patients have been treated with caspofungin during the period of study; however, 8 files were lost. Thus, 54 patients were included in the study having received 55 prescriptions of caspofungin. Males were a majority with 64.8% of the population. Mean age was 51 years. Caspofungin was indicated in accordance with the IDSA recommendations in 43.6% of the cases. The most case of non respect to the guidelines was the indication of caspofungin as empirical treatment in non neutropenic patients. Caspofungin was utilized as a first line treatment in 9 cases where it was possible to give fluconazole first, as germs were fluconazole- sensitive. Caspofungin was indicated in 2 patients with good renal function and in which nor amphotericin B, liposomal ampho B neither itraconazole had been previously used, as indicates the MA. The posology of caspofungin was respected in all prescriptions with a loading dose of 70 mg in the first day and a maintenance dose of 50 mg daily. Seven patients had received a daily dose of 70 mg, the recommended dose for people weighing more than 80 Kg. Caspofungin prescriptions are far to be adequately done. There is a clear need of optimization in indicating this molecule and that must be done in collaboration between the pharmacy department, the ICUs and parasitology department.Keywords: caspofungin, prescription, intensive care units, marketing authorization, Tunisian hospital cohort
Procedia PDF Downloads 3368940 Hepatoprotective Assessment of L-Ascorbate 1-(2-Hydroxyethyl)-4,6-Dimethyl-1, 2-Dihydropyrimidine-2-on in Toxic Liver Damage Test
Authors: Vladimir Zobov, Nail Nazarov, Alexandra Vyshtakalyuk, Vyacheslav Semenov, Irina Galyametdinova, Vladimir Reznik
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The aim of this study was to investigate hepatoprotective properties of the Xymedon derivative L-ascorbate 1- (2-hydroxyethyl)-4,6-dimethyl-1,2-dihydropyrimidine-2-one (XD), which exhibits high efficiency as actoprotector. The study was carried out on 68 male albino rats weighing 250-400 g using preventive exposure to the test preparation. Effectiveness of XD win comparison with effectiveness of Xymedon (original substance) after administration of the compounds in identical doses. Maximum dose was 20 mg/kg. The animals orally received Xymedon or its derivative in doses of 10 and 20 mg/kg over 4 days. In 1-1.5 h after drug administration, CCl4 in vegetable oil (1:1) in a dose of 2 ml/kg. Controls received CCl4 but without hepatoprotectors. Intact control group consisted of rats, not receiving CCl4 or other compounds. The next day after the last administration of CCl4 and compounds under study animals were dehematized under ether anesthesia, blood and liver samples were taken for biochemical and histological analysis. Xymedon and XD administered according to the preventice scheme, exerted hepatoprotective effects: Xymedon — in the dose of 20 mg/kg, XD — in doses of 10 and 20 mg/kg. The drugs under study had different effects on liver condition, affected by induction with CCl4. Xymedon had a more pronounced effect both on the ALT level, which can be elevated not only due to destructive changes in hepatocytes, but also as a cholestasis manifestation, and on the serum total protein level, which reflects protein synthesis in liver. XD had a more pronounced effect on AST level, which is one of the markers of hepatocyte damage. Lower effective dose of XD — 10 mg/kg, compared to Xymedon effective according to, and its pronounced effect on AST, the hepatocyte cytolysis marker, is indicative of its higher preventive effectiveness, compared to Xymedon. This work was performed with the financial support of Russian Science Foundation (grant No: 14-50-00014).Keywords: hepatoprotectors, pyrimidine derivatives, toxic liver damage, xymedon
Procedia PDF Downloads 2958939 Sulfate Radicals Applied to the Elimination of Selected Pollutants in Water Matrices
Authors: F. Javier Benitez, Juan L. Acero, Francisco J. Real, Elena Rodriguez
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Five selected pollutants which are frequently present in waters and wastewaters have been degraded by the advanced oxidation process constituted by UV radiation activated with the additional presence of persulfate (UV/PS). These pollutants were 1H-benzotriazole (BZ), N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide or DEET (DT), chlorophene (CP), 3-methylindole (ML), and nortriptyline hydrochloride (NH).While UV radiation alone almost not degraded these substances, the addition of PS generated the very reactive and oxidizing sulfate radical SO₄⁻. The kinetic study provided the second order rate constants for the reaction between this radical and each pollutant. An increasing dose of PS led to an increase in the degradation rate, being the highest results obtained at near neutral pH. Several water matrices were tested, and the presence of bicarbonate showed different effects: a decrease in the elimination of DT, BZ, and NH; and an increase in the oxidation of CP and ML. The additional presence of humic acids (AH) decreased this degradation, because of several effects: light screening and radical scavenging. The presence of several natural substances in waters (both types, inorganic and organic matter) usually diminishes the oxidation rates of organic pollutants, but this combination UV/PS process seems to be an efficient solution for the removal of the selected contaminants when are present in contaminated waters.Keywords: water purification, UV activated persulfate, kinetic study, sulfate radicals
Procedia PDF Downloads 1268938 A Study of Factors Affecting the Elapsed Time of Housing Renewal Project Implementation in Seoul
Authors: In Su Na, Gunwon Lee, Seiyong Kim
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This study analyzed the effect of area variables and economic variables on the length of each period of the project in order to analyze the effect of agreement rate on project implementation in housing renewal projects. In conclusion, as can be seen from these results, a low agreement rate may not translate into project promotion, and a higher agreement rate may not translate into project delay. The expectation of the policy is that the lower the agreement rate, the more projects would be promoted, but that is not the actual effect. From a policy consistency viewpoint, changing the agreement rate frequently, depending on the decision of the public, is not reasonable. The policy of using agreement rate as a necessary condition for project implementation should be reconsidered.Keywords: Area and Economic Variables, Elapsed time, Housing Renewal Project
Procedia PDF Downloads 4518937 The Impact of Using Flattening Filter-Free Energies on Treatment Efficiency for Prostate SBRT
Authors: T. Al-Alawi, N. Shorbaji, E. Rashaidi, M.Alidrisi
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Purpose/Objective(s): The main purpose of this study is to analyze the planning of SBRT treatments for localized prostate cancer with 6FFF and 10FFF energies to see if there is a dosimetric difference between the two energies and how we can increase the plan efficiency and reduce its complexity. Also, to introduce a planning method in our department to treat prostate cancer by utilizing high energy photons without increasing patient toxicity and fulfilled all dosimetric constraints for OAR (an organ at risk). Then toevaluate the target 95% coverage PTV95, V5%, V2%, V1%, low dose volume for OAR (V1Gy, V2Gy, V5Gy), monitor unit (beam-on time), and estimate the values of homogeneity index HI, conformity index CI a Gradient index GI for each treatment plan.Materials/Methods: Two treatment plans were generated for15 patients with localized prostate cancer retrospectively using the CT planning image acquired for radiotherapy purposes. Each plan contains two/three complete arcs with two/three different collimator angle sets. The maximum dose rate available is 1400MU/min for the energy 6FFF and 2400MU/min for 10FFF. So in case, we need to avoid changing the gantry speed during the rotation, we tend to use the third arc in the plan with 6FFF to accommodate the high dose per fraction. The clinical target volume (CTV) consists of the entire prostate for organ-confined disease. The planning target volume (PTV) involves a margin of 5 mm. A 3-mm margin is favored posteriorly. Organs at risk identified and contoured include the rectum, bladder, penile bulb, femoral heads, and small bowel. The prescription dose is to deliver 35Gyin five fractions to the PTV and apply constraints for organ at risk (OAR) derived from those reported in references. Results: In terms of CI=0.99, HI=0.7, and GI= 4.1, it was observed that they are all thesame for both energies 6FFF and 10FFF with no differences, but the total delivered MUs are much less for the 10FFF plans (2907 for 6FFF vs.2468 for 10FFF) and the total delivery time is 124Sc for 6FFF vs. 61Sc for 10FFF beams. There were no dosimetric differences between 6FFF and 10FFF in terms of PTV coverage and mean doses; the mean doses for the bladder, rectum, femoral heads, penile bulb, and small bowel were collected, and they were in favor of the 10FFF. Also, we got lower V1Gy, V2Gy, and V5Gy doses for all OAR with 10FFF plans. Integral dosesID in (Gy. L) were recorded for all OAR, and they were lower with the 10FFF plans. Conclusion: High energy 10FFF has lower treatment time and lower delivered MUs; also, 10FFF showed lower integral and meant doses to organs at risk. In this study, we suggest usinga 10FFF beam for SBRTprostate treatment, which has the advantage of lowering the treatment time and that lead to lessplan complexity with respect to 6FFF beams.Keywords: FFF beam, SBRT prostate, VMAT, prostate cancer
Procedia PDF Downloads 818936 Assessment of Reproductive Toxicity of Diazinon Pesticide in Male Wistar Rats
Authors: Mohammad Alfaifi
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Organophosphates are among the most widely used synthetic insect pesticides. The widespread use of organophosphates has stimulated research into the possible existence of effects related with their reproductive toxic activity. The present study aimed to assess the effects of diazinon (DIZ) on male reproductive system. DIZ at the dose levels of 1.5, 3.0 and 9.0 mg/kg b. wt./day was administered orally to male rats of Wistar strain for 30 days to evaluate the toxic alterations in testicular histology, biochemistry, sperm dynamics, and testosterone levels. The body weight of animals did not show any significant changes, however, a significant reduction was observed in testes weight. DIZ also brought about marked reduction in epididymal and testicular sperm counts in exposed males and a decrease in serum testosterone concentration. Histopathological examination of testes showed mild to severe degenerative changes in seminiferous tubules at various dose levels. Fertility test showed 79% negative results. All these toxic effects are moderate at low doses and become severe at higher dose levels. From the results of the present study it is concluded that DIZ induces severe testicular damage and results in reduction in sperm count and thus affect fertility. Small changes in sperm counts are known to have adverse affects on human fertility. Therefore, application of such insecticide should be limited to a designed programme.Keywords: reproductive toxicity, fertility, diazinon, sperm count
Procedia PDF Downloads 3138935 Verification of Dosimetric Commissioning Accuracy of Flattening Filter Free Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy and Volumetric Modulated Therapy Delivery Using Task Group 119 Guidelines
Authors: Arunai Nambi Raj N., Kaviarasu Karunakaran, Krishnamurthy K.
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The purpose of this study was to create American Association of Physicist in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group 119 (TG 119) benchmark plans for flattening filter free beam (FFF) deliveries of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric arc therapy (VMAT) in the Eclipse treatment planning system. The planning data were compared with the flattening filter (FF) IMRT & VMAT plan data to verify the dosimetric commissioning accuracy of FFF deliveries. AAPM TG 119 proposed a set of test cases called multi-target, mock prostate, mock head and neck, and C-shape to ascertain the overall accuracy of IMRT planning, measurement, and analysis. We used these test cases to investigate the performance of the Eclipse Treatment planning system for the flattening filter free beam deliveries. For these test cases, we generated two sets of treatment plans, the first plan using 7–9 IMRT fields and a second plan utilizing two arc VMAT technique for both the beam deliveries (6 MV FF, 6MV FFF, 10 MV FF and 10 MV FFF). The planning objectives and dose were set as described in TG 119. The dose prescriptions for multi-target, mock prostate, mock head and neck, and C-shape were taken as 50, 75.6, 50 and 50 Gy, respectively. The point dose (mean dose to the contoured chamber volume) at the specified positions/locations was measured using compact (CC‑13) ion chamber. The composite planar dose and per-field gamma analysis were measured with IMatriXX Evaluation 2D array with OmniPro IMRT Software (version 1.7b). FFF beam deliveries of IMRT and VMAT plans were comparable to flattening filter beam deliveries. Our planning and quality assurance results matched with TG 119 data. AAPM TG 119 test cases are useful to generate FFF benchmark plans. From the obtained data in this study, we conclude that the commissioning of FFF IMRT and FFF VMAT delivery were found within the limits of TG-119 and the performance of the Eclipse treatment planning system for FFF plans were found satisfactorily.Keywords: flattening filter free beams, intensity modulated radiation therapy, task group 119, volumetric modulated arc therapy
Procedia PDF Downloads 1428934 Mutagenesis, Oxidative Stress Induction and Blood Cytokine Profile in First Generation Male Rats Whose Parents Were Exposed to Radiation and Hexavalent Chromium
Authors: Yerbolat Iztleuov
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Stochastic effects, which are currently largely associated with exposure to ionizing radiation or a combination of ionizing radiation with other chemical, physical, and biological agents, are expressed in the form of various mutations. In the first stage of the study, rats of both sexes were divided into 3 groups. 1st - control group, animals of the 2nd group were exposed to gamma radiation at a dose of 0.2 Gy. The third group received hexavalent chromium in a dose of 180 mg/ l with drinking water for a month before irradiation and a day after the end of chromium consumption and was subjected to total gamma irradiation at a dose of 0.2 Gy. The second stage of the experiment. After 3 days, the males were mated with the females. The obtained offspring were studied for peroxidation, cytokine profile and micronucleus in the nuclei. This study shows that 5-month-old offspring whose parents were exposed to combined exposure to chromium and γ-irradiation exhibit hereditary instability of the genome, decreased activity of antioxidant enzymes and sulfhydryl blood groups, and increased levels of lipid peroxidation. There is also an increase in the level of inflammatory markers (IL-6 and TNF) in the blood plasma against the background of a decrease in anti-inflammatory cytokine (IL-10). Thus, the combined effect of hexavalent chromium and ionizing radiation can lead to the development of an oncological process.Keywords: hexavalent chromium, ionizing radiation, first generation, oxidative stress, cytokines, mutagenesis, cancer
Procedia PDF Downloads 118933 Evaluation of Reproductive Toxicity of Diazinon Pesticide in Male Wistar Rats
Authors: Mohammad Alfaifi, Mohammed Alshehri
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Organophosphates are among the most widely used synthetic insect pesticides. The widespread use of organophosphates has stimulated research into the possible existence of effects related with their reproductive toxic activity. The present study aimed to assess the effects of diazinon (DIZ) on male reproductive system. DIZ at the dose levels of 1.5, 3.0 and 9.0 mg/kg b. wt./day was administered orally to male rats of Wistar strain for 30 days to evaluate the toxic alterations in testicular histology, biochemistry, sperm dynamics and testosterone levels. The body weight of animals did not show any significant changes; however, a significant reduction was observed in testes weight. DIZ also brought about a marked reduction in epididymal and testicular sperm counts in exposed males and a decrease in serum testosterone concentration. Histopathological examination of testes showed mild to severe degenerative changes in seminiferous tubules at various dose levels. Fertility test showed 79% negative results. All these toxic effects are moderate at low doses and become severe at higher dose levels. From the results of the present study, it is concluded that DIZ induces severe testicular damage and results in a reduction in sperm count and thus affect fertility. Small changes in sperm counts are known to have adverse effects on human fertility. Therefore, application of such insecticide should be limited to a designed programme.Keywords: organophosphates, reproductive toxicity, diazinon, fertility
Procedia PDF Downloads 4058932 Thiopental-Fentanyl versus Midazolam-Fentanyl for Emergency Department Procedural Sedation and Analgesia in Patients with Shoulder Dislocation and Distal Radial Fracture-Dislocation: A Randomized Double-Blind Controlled Trial
Authors: D. Farsi, G. Dokhtvasi, S. Abbasi, S. Shafiee Ardestani, E. Payani
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Background and aim:It has not been well studied whether fentanyl-thiopental (FT) is effective and safe for PSA in orthopedic procedures in Emergency Department (ED). The aim of this trial was to evaluate the effectiveness of intravenous FTversusfentanyl-midazolam (FM)in patients who suffered from shoulder dislocation or distal radial fracture-dislocation. Methods:In this randomized double-blinded study, Seventy-six eligible patients were entered the study and randomly received intravenous FT or FM. The success rate, onset of action and recovery time, pain score, physicians’ satisfaction and adverse events were assessed and recorded by treating emergency physicians. The statistical analysis was intention to treat. Results: The success rate after administrating loading dose in FT group was significantly higher than FM group (71.7% vs. 48.9%, p=0.04); however, the ultimate unsuccess rate after 3 doses of drugs in the FT group was higher than the FM group (3 to 1) but it did not reach to significant level (p=0.61). Despite near equal onset of action time in two study group (P=0.464), the recovery period in patients receiving FT was markedly shorter than FM group (P<0.001). The occurrence of adverse effects was low in both groups (p=0.31). Conclusion: PSA using FT is effective and appears to be safe for orthopedic procedures in the ED. Therefore, regarding the prompt onset of action, short recovery period of thiopental, it seems that this combination can be considered more for performing PSA in orthopedic procedures in ED.Keywords: procedural sedation and analgesia, thiopental, fentanyl, midazolam, orthopedic procedure, emergency department, pain
Procedia PDF Downloads 2498931 A Case Study of Response to Dual Genotype Chronic Hepatitis C/HIV Co-Infection to Fixed Dose Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir
Authors: Tabassum Yasmin, Hamid Pahlevan
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HIV/Hepatitis C co-infection treatments have evolved substantially and they have similar sustained virologic response rates as those of Hepatitis C monoinfected population. There are a few studies on therapy of patients with dual genotypes, especially in HIV/Hepatic C coinfected group. Most studies portrayed case reports of dual genotype chronic Hepatitis C coinfection treatment with Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir and Ribavirin. A 79-year-old male with a history of HIV on Truvada and Isentress had chronic Hepatitis C with 1a and 2 genotypes. The patient has a history of alcohol intake for 40 years but recently stopped drinking alcohol. He has a history of intravenous drug use in the past and currently is not using any recreational drugs. Patient has Fibro score of 0.7 with Metavir score F2 to F4. AFP is 3.2. The HCV RNA is 493,034 IU/ML. The HBV viral DNA is < 1.30 (not detected). The CD4 is 687CU/MM. The FIB 4 is 3.34 with APRI index 0.717. The HIV viral load is 101 copies/ML. MRI abdomen did not show any liver abnormality. Fixed dose Sofosbuvir/Ledipasvir was used for therapy without Ribavirin. He tolerated medication except for some minor gastrointestinal side effects like abdominal bloating. He demonstrated 100% adherence rate. Patient completed 12 weeks of therapy. HCV RNA was undetectable at 4 and 12 weeks. He achieved SVR at week 12 and subsequently had undetectable RNA for 2 years. Dual genotype prevalence in chronic hepatitis C population is rare, especially in HIV/hepatic coinfection. Our case demonstrates that dual genotypic cases can still be successfully treated with Direct Acting Antiviral agents. The newer agents for therapy for pan genotypes were not available at the time the patient was being treated. We demonstrated that dual agent therapy was still able to maintain SVR in our patient.Keywords: HIV/Hepatitis C, SVR (sustained virologic response), DAA (direct active antiviral agents, dual genotype
Procedia PDF Downloads 1928930 Preliminary Study of Standardization and Validation of Micronuclei Technique to Assess the DNA Damages Cause for the X-Rays
Authors: L. J. Díaz, M. A. Hernández, A. K. Molina, A. Bermúdez, C. Crane, V. M. Pabón
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One of the most important biological indicators that show the exposure to the radiation is the micronuclei (MN). This technique is using to determinate the radiation effects in blood cultures as a biological control and a complement to the physics dosimetry. In Colombia the necessity to apply this analysis has emerged due to the current biological indicator most used is the chromosomal aberrations (CA), that is why it is essential the MN technique’s standardization and validation to have enough tools to improve the radioprotection topic in the country. Besides, this technique will be applied on the construction of a dose-response curve, that allow measure an approximately dose to irradiated people according to MN frequency found. Inside the steps that carried out to accomplish the standardization and validation is the statistic analysis from the lectures of “in vitro” peripheral blood cultures with different analysts, also it was determinate the best culture medium and conditions for the MN can be detected easily.Keywords: micronuclei, radioprotection, standardization, validation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4888929 Nephroprotective Activity of Aqueous Methanolic Extract of Aerva Lanata (Busehri Booti) against Cisplatin Induced Nephrotoxicity in Rats
Authors: Mohd Aslam Aslam
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Chronic renal failure is a debilitating condition responsible for high morbidity and mortality. Because of its costs and the complexity of its treatment, proper care is available to very few patients in India. According to researchers, the number of adults aged 30 or older who have chronic kidney disease is projected to increase from 13.2 percent currently, to 14.4 percent in 2020 and 16.7 percent in 2030. The aerial part of Aerva lanata (Busehri booti) have been used in kidney disorders by the Unani physicians. In the present study, the effect of extract of Aerva lanata was investigated on cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity in rats. The renal effects of this drug was evaluated by monitoring levels of blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, serum uric acid in blood and histopathological examination of kidney. Aerva lanata was evaluated at two different doses (1400 mg/kg and 2800 mg/kg). The effect of higher dose was more pronounced in terms of inhibition in the rise of BUN, serum creatinine and uric acid. Higher dose show greater prevention in the rise of BUN, serum creatinine, and uric acid. The histopathological examination of the kidney tissue of the rats treated with aqueous methanolic extract of Aerva lanata (Higher dose-2800 mg/kg) showed marked inhibition of glomerular congestion, tubular casts, peritubular congestion, epithelial desquamation, blood vessel congestion, interstitial edema and inflammatory cells produced by the cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity. This finding clearly indicates the protective role of Aerva lanata at higher dose. Present investigation validates the use of Aerva lanata in kidney disorders by Unani physicians.Keywords: Aerva lanata, Busehri booti, nephroprotective, unani medicine
Procedia PDF Downloads 2208928 A Deterministic Approach for Solving the Hull and White Interest Rate Model with Jump Process
Authors: Hong-Ming Chen
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This work considers the resolution of the Hull and White interest rate model with the jump process. A deterministic process is adopted to model the random behavior of interest rate variation as deterministic perturbations, which is depending on the time t. The Brownian motion and jumps uncertainty are denoted as the integral functions piecewise constant function w(t) and point function θ(t). It shows that the interest rate function and the yield function of the Hull and White interest rate model with jump process can be obtained by solving a nonlinear semi-infinite programming problem. A relaxed cutting plane algorithm is then proposed for solving the resulting optimization problem. The method is calibrated for the U.S. treasury securities at 3-month data and is used to analyze several effects on interest rate prices, including interest rate variability, and the negative correlation between stock returns and interest rates. The numerical results illustrate that our approach essentially generates the yield functions with minimal fitting errors and small oscillation.Keywords: optimization, interest rate model, jump process, deterministic
Procedia PDF Downloads 1588927 Study of Natural Radioactive and Radiation Hazard Index of Soil from Sembrong Catchment Area, Johor, Malaysia
Authors: M. I. A. Adziz, J. Sharib Sarip, M. T. Ishak, D. N. A. Tugi
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Radiation exposure to humans and the environment is caused by natural radioactive material sources. Given that exposure to people and communities can occur through several pathways, it is necessary to pay attention to the increase in naturally radioactive material, particularly in the soil. Continuous research and monitoring on the distribution and determination of these natural radionuclides' activity as a guide and reference are beneficial, especially in an accidental exposure. Surface soil/sediment samples from several locations identified around the Sembrong catchment area were taken for the study. After 30 days of secular equilibrium with their daughters, the activity concentrations of the naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) members, i.e. ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²³⁸U, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K, were measured using high purity germanium (HPGe) gamma spectrometer. The results obtained showed that the radioactivity concentration of ²³⁸U ranged between 17.13 - 30.13 Bq/kg, ²³²Th ranged between 22.90 - 40.05 Bq/kg, ²²⁶Ra ranged between 19.19 - 32.10 Bq/kg, ²²⁸Ra ranged between 21.08 - 39.11 Bq/kg and ⁴⁰K ranged between 9.22 - 51.07 Bq/kg with average values of 20.98 Bq/kg, 27.39 Bq/kg, 23.55 Bq/kg, 26.93 Bq/kg and 23.55 Bq/kg respectively. The values obtained from this study were low or equivalent to previously reported in previous studies. It was also found that the mean/mean values obtained for the four parameters of the Radiation Hazard Index, namely radium equivalent activity (Raeq), external dose rate (D), annual effective dose and external hazard index (Hₑₓ), were 65.40 Bq/kg, 29.33 nGy/h, 19.18 ¹⁰⁻⁶Sv and 0.19 respectively. These obtained values are low compared to the world average values and the values of globally applied standards. Comparison with previous studies (dry season) also found that the values for all four parameters were low and equivalent. This indicates the level of radiation hazard in the area around the study is safe for the public.Keywords: catchment area, gamma spectrometry, naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), soil
Procedia PDF Downloads 938926 Identifying Knowledge Gaps in Incorporating Toxicity of Particulate Matter Constituents for Developing Regulatory Limits on Particulate Matter
Authors: Ananya Das, Arun Kumar, Gazala Habib, Vivekanandan Perumal
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Regulatory bodies has proposed limits on Particulate Matter (PM) concentration in air; however, it does not explicitly indicate the incorporation of effects of toxicities of constituents of PM in developing regulatory limits. This study aimed to provide a structured approach to incorporate toxic effects of components in developing regulatory limits on PM. A four-step human health risk assessment framework consists of - (1) hazard identification (parameters: PM and its constituents and their associated toxic effects on health), (2) exposure assessment (parameters: concentrations of PM and constituents, information on size and shape of PM; fate and transport of PM and constituents in respiratory system), (3) dose-response assessment (parameters: reference dose or target toxicity dose of PM and its constituents), and (4) risk estimation (metric: hazard quotient and/or lifetime incremental risk of cancer as applicable). Then parameters required at every step were obtained from literature. Using this information, an attempt has been made to determine limits on PM using component-specific information. An example calculation was conducted for exposures of PM2.5 and its metal constituents from Indian ambient environment to determine limit on PM values. Identified data gaps were: (1) concentrations of PM and its constituents and their relationship with sampling regions, (2) relationship of toxicity of PM with its components.Keywords: air, component-specific toxicity, human health risks, particulate matter
Procedia PDF Downloads 3048925 Experimental Investigation on the Effects of Electroless Nickel Phosphorus Deposition, pH and Temperature with the Varying Coating Bath Parameters on Impact Energy by Taguchi Method
Authors: D. Kari Basavaraja, M. G. Skanda, C. Soumya, V. Ramesh
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This paper discusses the effects of sodium hypophosphite concentration, pH, and temperature on deposition rate. This paper also discusses the evaluation of coating strength, surface, and subsurface by varying the bath parameters, percentage of phosphate, plating temperature, and pH of the plating solution. Taguchi technique has been used for the analysis. In the experiment, nickel chloride which is a source of nickel when mixed with sodium hypophosphite has been used as the reducing agent and the source of phosphate and sodium hydroxide has been used to vary the pH of the coating bath. The coated samples are tested for impact energy by conducting impact test. Finally, the effects of coating bath parameters on the impact energy absorbed have been plotted, and analysis has been carried out. Further, percentage contribution of coating bath parameters using Design of Experiments approach (DOE) has been analysed. Finally, it can be concluded that the bath parameters of the Ni-P coating will certainly influence on the strength of the specimen.Keywords: bath parameters, coatings, design of experiment, fracture toughness, impact strength
Procedia PDF Downloads 3498924 Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Physicians’ Adherence to the American Diabetes Association Guideline in Central Region, Saudi Arabia
Authors: Ibrahim Mohammed
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Background: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that can cause devastating secondary complications, reducing the quality and length of life as well as increasing medical costs for the patient and society. The guidelines recommend both clinical and preventive strategies for diabetes management and are regularly updated. The aim of the study is to assess the level of adherence of physicians to American Diabetes Association Guidelines. Method: Observational multicenter retrospective study will be conducted among different hospitals in the central region. Patient data will be collected from the records of the last three years (2017- 2020). Records will be selected randomly after a complete randomized design. The study focuses on the management of type 2 according to ADA not changed in the last three updating; those standards; all patients should be taking Metformin 1500 to 2000 mg/day as recommended dose and should be received a high dose of statin if the high risk to ASCVD or moderate statin if not at risk, patients with hypertension and diabetes should taking ACE or ARBS. Result: The study aimed to evaluate the commitment of physicians in the central region to the ADA. Out of the 153 selected patients, only 17 % were able to control their diabetes with an average A1c below 7. ADA stated that to reach the minimum benefit of using Metformin, the daily dose should be between 1500 and 2000 mg. Results showed that 110 patients were on Metformin, where 68% of them were on the recommended dose. ADA recommended the intake of high statin for diabetic patients with ASCVD risk, while diabetic patients without ASCVD risk should be on a moderate statin. Results showed that 61.5% of patients with ASCVD risk were at high statin while only 36% of patients without ASCVD risk were at moderate statin. Results showed that 89 patients have hypertension, and 80% of them are getting ACE/ARBs as recommended by the ADA. Recommendation: It is necessary to implement periodic training courses for some physicians to enhance and update their knowledge.Keywords: American Diabetic Association, diabetes mellitus, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, ACE inhibitors
Procedia PDF Downloads 818923 X-Ray Dosimetry by a Low-Cost Current Mode Ion Chamber
Authors: Ava Zarif Sanayei, Mustafa Farjad-Fard, Mohammad-Reza Mohammadian-Behbahani, Leyli Ebrahimi, Sedigheh Sina
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The fabrication and testing of a low-cost air-filled ion chamber for X-ray dosimetry is studied. The chamber is made of a metal cylinder, a central wire, a BC517 Darlington transistor, a 9V DC battery, and a voltmeter in order to have a cost-effective means to measure the dose. The output current of the dosimeter is amplified by the transistor and then fed to the large internal resistance of the voltmeter, producing a readable voltage signal. The dose-response linearity of the ion chamber is evaluated for different exposure scenarios by the X-ray tube. kVp values 70, 90, and 120, and mAs up to 20 are considered. In all experiments, a solid-state dosimeter (Solidose 400, Elimpex Medizintechnik) is used as a reference device for chamber calibration. Each case of exposure is repeated three times, the voltmeter and Solidose readings are recorded, and the mean and standard deviation values are calculated. Then, the calibration curve, derived by plotting voltmeter readings against Solidose readings, provided a linear fit result for all tube kVps of 70, 90, and 120. A 99, 98, and 100% linear relationship, respectively, for kVp values 70, 90, and 120 are demonstrated. The study shows the feasibility of achieving acceptable dose measurements with a simplified setup. Further enhancements to the proposed setup include solutions for limiting the leakage current, optimizing chamber dimensions, utilizing electronic microcontrollers for dedicated data readout, and minimizing the impact of stray electromagnetic fields on the system.Keywords: dosimetry, ion chamber, radiation detection, X-ray
Procedia PDF Downloads 648922 Changes in the Body Weight and Wound Contraction Rate Following Treatment with Piper betel Extract in Diabetic Wounds
Authors: Nurul Z. Sani, Amalina N. Ghazali, Azree Elmy, Lee C. Yuen, Zar C. Thent
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Piper betel (P. betel) leaves is widely used in Asian countries for treating diabetes mellitus and its complication. In our previous study, we observed the positive effect of P.betel extract on diabetic wounds following 3 and 7 days of treatment. The aim of the present study was to determine the effect of P.betel leaves extract in the diabetic rats was observed in terms of body weight and wound contraction rates following 5 days of the treatment. Total 64 male Sprague-Dawley rats were used and the experimental rats received a single dose of 60mg/kg of Streptozotocin (STZ) injection, intraperitoneally. Four full thickness (6mm) cutaneous wounds were created on dorsum of each rat. The rats were divideid into (n=8): Non-treated Control (NC), Non-treated Diabetic (ND), diabetic treated with commercial cream (SN) and diabetic treated with 50mg/kg of P.betel extract (PB). The rats were sacrificed on day 0 and 5 post wounding. Significant increased in wound closure rate, body weight was observed in PB group compared to ND. Histological deterioration was restored in the P. betel extract treated wounds. It is concluded that topical application with P.betel extract for 5 days of post wounding offers positive scientific value in diabetic rats.Keywords: diabetes, piper betel, wound healing, body weight, morphology
Procedia PDF Downloads 5438921 Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Performance of Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from Nigeria
Authors: Ifeoma Patricia Osamor, Ayotunde Qudus Saka, Godwin Omoregbee, Hikmat Oreoluwalomo Omolaja
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Persistent fall in the value of Nigeria's currency compared to other foreign currencies, constant fluctuations in the exchange rate, and an increase in the price of goods and services necessitated the examination of the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the economic performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. Manufacturing gross domestic product (MGDP) was proxied for performance; Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE), Naira/Pounds exchange rate (NPE), Foreign exchange supply (FES) were used for exchange rate fluctuations; and inflation rate (INF) was a control variable. Data were collected from CBN Statistical Bulletin (2020) also World Development Indicators of the World Bank, while data collected were analysed using descriptive analysis, unit root, bounds cointegration test, and ARDL. Findings showed that changes in Naira/Dollar exchange rate (NDE) and Naira/Pound Sterling exchange rate negatively but significantly impact the economic performance of the manufacturing sector, while foreign exchange supply leads to an insignificant positive effect on the economic performance of the manufacturing. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact the performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria and, therefore, recommends that government should encourage export diversification through agriculture, agro-investment, and agro-allied industries that would boost export in order to improve the value of the Naira, thereby stabilizing the exchange rate.Keywords: exchange rate, economic performance, gross domestic product, inflation rate, foreign exchange supply
Procedia PDF Downloads 1868920 The acute effects caffeine on testosterone and cortisol in young football players after One Session Anaerobic exercise
Authors: S. Rostami, S. H. Hosseini, A. A. Torabi, M. Bekhradi
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Introduction: Interest in the use of caffeine as an ergogenic aid has increased since the International Olympic Committee lifted the partial ban on its use. Caffeine has beneficial effects on various aspects of athletic performance, but its effects on training have been neglected. The purpose of this study was to investigate the acute effect of caffeine on testosterone and cortisole in young futsal players. Methods: Twenty-four professional futsal players with 18.3± 1.9 years ingested caffeine doses of 0, 200 and 800 mg in random order 1 hr before an anaerobic-exercise session (RAST test). Samples were taken at the time of caffeine ingestion and 30 min after the session. Data were log-transformed to estimate percent effects with mixed modeling, and effects were standardized to assess magnitudes. fects on training have been neglected. Results: Testosterone concentration showed a small increase of 15% (90% confidence limits, ± 19%) during exercise. Caffeine raised this concentration in a dose-dependent manner by a further small 21% (± 24%) at the highest dose. The 800-mg dose also produced a moderate 52% (± 44%) increase in cortisol. The effect of caffeine on the testosterone: cortisol ratio was a small decline (14%; ± 21%). Discussion and Conclusion: Caffeine has some potential to benefit training outcomes via the anabolic effects of the increase in testosterone concentration, but this benefit might be counteracted by the opposing catabolic effects of the increase in cortisol and resultant decline in the testosterone: cortisol ratio.Keywords: anabolic, catabolic, performance, testosterone, cortisol ratio, RAST test
Procedia PDF Downloads 4348919 Examining Macroeconomics Determinants of Inflation Rate in Somalia
Authors: Farhia Hassan Mohamed
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This study examined the macroeconomic factors that affect the inflation Rate in Somalia using quarterly time series data from 1991q1 to 2017q4 retired from World Development Indicators and SESRIC. It employed the vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger Causality method to measure the long-run and short-run causality of the GDP, inflation exchange rate, and unemployment. The study confirmed that there is one cointegration equation between GDP, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment in Somalia. However, the VECM model's result indicates a long-run relationship among variables. The VEC Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test result confirmed that all covariates are statistically significant at 5% and are Granger's cause of inflation in the short term. Finally, the impulse response result showed that inflation responds negatively to the shocks from the exchange rate and unemployment rate and positively to GDP and itself. Drawing from the empirical findings, the study makes several policy recommendations for both the monetary and Government sides.Keywords: CPI, OP, exchange rate, inflation ADF, Johansen, PP, VECM, impulse, ECT
Procedia PDF Downloads 368918 Prevalence of Gastro-Intestinal Helminthes of Farm Animals by Coprological Examination
Authors: Mohammad Saleh Al-Aboody
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In the present study 442 fecal samples from cattle, buffaloes, and sheep for contamination with helminthes. Samples were examined from 171 cattle, 128 buffaloes, and 143 sheep. The testing, during the period from May 2014 to April 2015, showed that 81 out of 171cattle were positive for helminthes infection (47.3%), with the rate of infection higher in females (55%) than in males (40%). In buffaloes, 41 of 128 tested were positive, a 32% rate of infection. Again, the infection rate was higher in females (47%) than in males (22%). In sheep, the rate of infection was highest of all three species. The results showed that, the infection rate among cattle were 50.3 % and Trichostrongyle species were the predominant parasites among both cattle and buffaloes. The prevalence rate was much higher in females than males. Regarding seasonal dynamics the highest infection rates with helminthes reported was in spring season.Keywords: helminthes, prevalence, ruminants, trichostrongyle
Procedia PDF Downloads 3678917 The Effects on Abomasal Emtying Rate of Erythromycin and Bethanechol in Healthy, Premature and Diarrheic Calves
Authors: Sebnem Canikli Engin, Mutlu Sevinc, Hasan Guzelbektes
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In this study, we aim to define the effects of erythromycin and bethanechol which are prokinetic agents, on the value of abomasal discharge in healthy, diarrhea and premature calves. In the work, 5 healty calves, 12 diarrheaic calves and 12 premature calves, amounting to a total of 29 calves. In healty calves work; the same 5 calves were used for controlled, erythromycin and bethanechol studies (there was a 48-hour waiting period between each work). In diarrheic calves work; 12 diarrheic calves were used during the study (4 of them for control group, 4 of them bethanechol group and last 4 calves erythromycin group). In premature calves works; 12 premature calves were used during the study (4 of them for control group, 4 of them bethanechol group and last 4 calves erythromycin group). 10 mg/kg IM dose of erythromycin were applied to each erythromycin group, 0,07 mg/kg IM dose of bethanechol were applied on bethanechol group. No drugs were applied to the control group and substitution milk was given to all calves. 50 mg/kg acetominophen and 25 gram/L glucose have been added into the substitution milk to evaluate the speed of gastrointestinal motility with the test results of absorptions of acetominophen and glucose. The blood samples have been taken before substitution milk application and 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240 and 300 minutes after substitution milk application. Respiratory rates and number of heartbeats were also recorded during the test time. No changes were observed in the number of heartbeats, respiratory rates and general conditions for all groups after drug application. It is observed that, the feces of some calves became slightly watery and viscous and premature calves generaly defecated after 180 minutes. When Cmax, Tmax and AUC values of acetaminophen and glucose are compared with control group’s after applying erythromycin on the calves in the premature group, we obtain higher Cmax (P<0,05), shorter Tmax and greather AUC (P>0,05) values. In conclusion, according to clinical and laboratory findings, it may be stated that the application of 10 mg/kg doze of erythromycin IM has provided faster abomazal emptying in premature calves.Keywords: abomazal emptying, bethanechol, calf, erythromycin
Procedia PDF Downloads 3348916 Investment Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Tunisia
Authors: Mourad Zmami Oussema BenSalha
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The current research aims to assess empirically the reaction of private investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia using a sample of 548 firms operating in manufacturing industries between 1997 and 2002. The micro-econometric model we estimate is based on an accelerator-profit specification investment model increased by two variables that measure the variation and the volatility of exchange rates. Estimates using the system the GMM method reveal that the effects of the exchange rate depreciation on investment are negative since it increases the cost of imported capital goods. Turning to the exchange rate volatility, as measured by the GARCH (1,1) model, our findings assign a significant role to the exchange rate uncertainty in explaining the sluggishness of private investment in Tunisia in the full sample of firms. Other estimation attempts based on various sub samples indicate that the elasticities of investment relative to the exchange rate volatility depend upon many firms’ specific characteristics such as the size and the ownership structure.Keywords: investment, exchange rate volatility, manufacturing firms, system GMM, Tunisia
Procedia PDF Downloads 4028915 Cord Blood Hematopoietic Stem Cell Expansion Ability of Mesenchymal Stem Cells Isolated From Different Sources
Authors: Ana M. Lara, Manuela Llano, Felipe Gaitán, Rosa H. Bustos, Ana Maria Perdomo-Arciniegas, Ximena Bonilla
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Umbilical cord blood is used as a source of progenitor and stem cells for the regeneration of the hematopoietic and immune system to treat patients with different hematological or non-hematological diseases. This stem cell source represents an advantage over the use of bone marrow or mobilized peripheral blood because it has a lower incidence rate of graft-versus-host disease, probably due to fewer immunological compatibility restrictions. However, its low cellular dose limits its use in pediatric patients. This work proposes the standardization of a cell expansion technique to compensate for the dose of infused cells through the ex-vivo manipulation of hematopoietic progenitor cells from umbilical cord blood before transplantation. The expansion model is carried out through co-cultures with mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) from bone marrow (BM) and less explored fetal tissues such as Wharton's jelly (WJ) and umbilical cord blood (UCB). Initially, a master cell bank of primary mesenchymal stem cells isolated from different sources was established and characterized following International Society of Cell Therapies (ISCT) indications. Additionally, we assessed the effect of a short 25 Gy cycle of gamma irradiation on cell cycle arrest of mesenchymal cells over the support capacity for the expansion of hematopoietic stem cells from umbilical cord blood was evaluated. The results show that co-cultures with MSC from WJ and UCB allow the cellular dose of HSPC to be maximized between 5 and 16 times having a similar support capacity as BM. In addition, was evaluated the hematopoietic stem progenitor cell's HSPC functionality through the evaluation of migration capacity, their differentiation capacity during culture time by flow cytometry to evaluate the expression of membrane markers associated with lineage-committed progenitors, their clonogenic potential, and the evaluation of secretome profile in the expansion process was evaluated. So far, the treatment with gamma irradiation maintains the hematopoietic support capacity of mesenchymal stem cells from the three sources studied compared to treatments without irradiation, favoring the use of fetal tissues that are generally waste to obtain mesenchymal cell lines for ex-vivo expansion systems. With the results obtained, a standardized protocol that will contribute to the development of ex-vivo expansion with MSC on a larger scale will be achieved, enabling its clinical use and expanding its application in adults.Keywords: ex-vivo expansion, hematopoietic stem cells, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, mesenchymal stem cells, umbilical cord blood
Procedia PDF Downloads 1098914 A Five-Year Experience of Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy in Nasopharyngeal Carcinomas in Tunisia
Authors: Omar Nouri, Wafa Mnejja, Fatma Dhouib, Syrine Zouari, Wicem Siala, Ilhem Charfeddine, Afef Khanfir, Leila Farhat, Nejla Fourati, Jamel Daoud
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Purpose and Objective: Intensity modulated radiation (IMRT) technique, associated with induction chemotherapy (IC) and/or concomitant chemotherapy (CC), is actually the recommended treatment modality for nasopharyngeal carcinomas (NPC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the therapeutic results and the patterns of relapse with this treatment protocol. Material and methods: A retrospective monocentric study of 145 patients with NPC treated between June 2016 and July 2021. All patients received IMRT with integrated simultaneous boost (SIB) of 33 daily fractions at a dose of 69.96 Gy for high-risk volume, 60 Gy for intermediate risk volume and 54 Gy for low-risk volume. The high-risk volume dose was 66.5 Gy in children. Survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and the Log-rank test was used to compare factors that may influence survival. Results: Median age was 48 years (11-80) with a sex ratio of 2.9. One hundred-twenty tumors (82.7%) were classified as stages III-IV according to the 2017 UICC TNM classification. Ten patients (6.9%) were metastatic at diagnosis. One hundred-thirty-five patient (93.1%) received IC, 104 of which (77%) were TPF-based (taxanes, cisplatin and 5 fluoro-uracil). One hundred-thirty-eight patient (95.2%) received CC, mostly cisplatin in 134 cases (97%). After a median follow-up of 50 months [22-82], 46 patients (31.7%) had a relapse: 12 (8.2%) experienced local and/or regional relapse after a median of 18 months [6-43], 29 (20%) experienced distant relapse after a median of 9 months [2-24] and 5 patients (3.4%) had both. Thirty-five patients (24.1%) died, including 5 (3.4%) from a cause other than their cancer. Three-year overall survival (OS), cancer specific survival, disease free survival, metastasis free survival and loco-regional free survival were respectively 78.1%, 81.3%, 67.8%, 74.5% and 88.1%. Anatomo-clinic factors predicting OS were age > 50 years (88.7 vs. 70.5%; p=0.004), diabetes history (81.2 vs. 66.7%; p=0.027), UICC N classification (100 vs. 95 vs. 77.5 vs. 68.8% respectively for N0, N1, N2 and N3; p=0.008), the practice of a lymph node biopsy (84.2 vs. 57%; p=0.05), and UICC TNM stages III-IV (93.8 vs. 73.6% respectively for stage I-II vs. III-IV; p=0.044). Therapeutic factors predicting OS were a number of CC courses (less than 4 courses: 65.8 vs. 86%; p=0.03, less than 5 courses: 71.5 vs. 89%; p=0.041), a weight loss > 10% during treatment (84.1 vs. 60.9%; p=0.021) and a total cumulative cisplatin dose, including IC and CC, < 380 mg/m² (64.4 vs. 87.6%; p=0.003). Radiotherapy delay and total duration did not significantly affect OS. No grade 3-4 late side effects were noted in the evaluable 127 patients (87.6%). The most common toxicity was dry mouth which was grade 2 in 47 cases (37%) and grade 1 in 55 cases (43.3%).Conclusion: IMRT for nasopharyngeal carcinoma granted a high loco-regional control rate for patients during the last five years. However, distant relapses remain frequent and conditionate the prognosis. We identified many anatomo-clinic and therapeutic prognosis factors. Therefore, high-risk patients require a more aggressive therapeutic approach, such as radiotherapy dose escalation or adding adjuvant chemotherapy.Keywords: therapeutic results, prognostic factors, intensity-modulated radiotherapy, nasopharyngeal carcinoma
Procedia PDF Downloads 578913 Exchange Rate Forecasting by Econometric Models
Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir
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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD
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