Search results for: children’s perspectives
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4462

Search results for: children’s perspectives

1012 Relationship Building Between Peer Support Worker and Person in Recovery in the Community-based One-to-One Peer Support Service of Mental Health Setting

Authors: Yuen Man Yan

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Peer support has been a rising prevalent mental health service in the globe. The community-based mental health services employ persons with lived experience of mental illness to be peer support workers (PSWs) to provide peer support service to those who are in the progress of recovery (PIRs). It represents the transformation of mental health service system to a recovery-oriented and person-centered care. Literatures proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the peer support service. Researchers have attempted to explore the unique good qualities of peer support service that benefit the PIRs. Empirical researches found that the strength of the relationship between those who sought for change and the change agents positively related to the outcomes in one-to-one therapies across theoretical orientations. However, there is lack of literature on investigating the relationship building between the PSWs and PIRs in the one-to-one community-based peer support service. This study aims to identify and characterise the relationship in the community-based one-to-one peer support service from the perspectives of PSWs and PIRs; and to conceptualize the components of relationship building between PSWs and PIRs in the community-based one-to-one peer support service. The study adopted the constructivist grounded theory approach. 10 pairs of the PSWs and PIRs participated in the study. Data were collected through multiple qualitative methods, including observation of the interaction and exchange of the PSWs and PIRs in the 1ₛₜ, 3ᵣ𝒹 and 9th sessions of the community-based one-to-one peer support service; and semi-structural interview with the PSWs and PIRs separately after the 3ᵣ𝒹and 9ₜₕ session of the peer support service. This presentation is going to report the preliminary findings of the study. PSWs and PIRs identified their relationship as “life alliance”. Empathy was found to be one of key components of the relationship between the PSWs and the PIRs. Unlike the empathy, as explained by Carl Roger, in which the service provider was able to put themselves into the shoes of the service recipients as if he was the service recipients, the intensity of the empathy was much greater in the relationship between PSWs and PIRs because PSWs had the lived experience of mental illness and recovery. The dimensions of the empathy in the relationship between PSWs and PIRs was found to be multiple, not only related to the mental illness but also related to various aspects in life, like family relationship, employment, interest of life, self-esteem and etc.

Keywords: person with lived experience, peer support worker, peer support service, relationship building, therapeutic alliance, community-based mental health setting

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1011 Identification of Common Indicators of Family Environment of Pupils of Alternative Schools

Authors: Yveta Pohnětalová, Veronika Nováková, Lucie Hrašová

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The paper presents the results of research in which we were looking for common characteristics of the family environment of students alternative and innovative education systems. Topicality comes from the fact that nowadays in the Czech Republic there are several civic and parental initiatives held with the aim to establish schools for their children. The goal of our research was to reveal key aspects of these families and to identify their common indicators. Among other things, we were interested what reasons lead parents to decide to enroll their child into different education than standard (common). The survey was qualitative and there were eighteen respondents of parents of alternative schools´ pupils. The reason to implement qualitative design was the opportunity to gain deeper insight into the essence of phenomena and to obtain detailed information, which would become the basis for subsequent quantitative research. There have been semi structured interviews done with the respondents which had been recorded and transcribed. By an analysis of gained data (categorization and by coding), we found out that common indicator of our respondents is higher education and higher economic level. This issue should be at the forefront of the researches because there is lack of analysis which would provide a comparison of common and alternative schools in the Czech Republic especially with regard to quality of education. Based on results, we consider questions whether approaches of these parents towards standard education come from their own experience or from the lack of knowledge of current goals and objectives of education policy of the Czech Republic.

Keywords: alternative schools, family environment, quality of education, parents´ approach

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1010 Consideration for a Policy Change to the South African Collective Bargaining Process: A Reflection on National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa v Trenstar (Pty) (2023) 44 ILJ 1189 (CC)

Authors: Carlos Joel Tchawouo Mbiada

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At the back of the apartheid era, South Africa embarked on a democratic drive of all its institution underpinned by a social justice perspective to eradicate past injustices. These democratic values based on fundamental human rights and equality informed all rights enshrined in the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996. This means that all rights are therefore infused by social justice perspective and labour rights are no exception. Labour law is therefore regulated to the extent that it is viewed as too rigid. Hence a call for more flexibility to enhance investment and boost job creation. This view articulated by the Free Market Foundation fell on deaf ears as the opponents believe in what is termed regulated flexibility which affords greater protection to vulnerable workers while promoting business opportunities and investment. The question that this paper seeks to examine is to what extent the regulation of labour law will go to protect employees. This question is prompted by the recent Constitutional Court’s judgment of National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa v Trenstar which barred the employer from employing labour replacement in response to the strike action by its employees. The question whether employers may use replacement labour and have recourse to lock-outs in response to strike action is considered in the context of the dichotomy between the Free market foundation and social justice perspectives which are at loggerheads in the South African collective bargaining process. With the current unemployment rate soaring constantly, the aftermath of the Covid 19 pandemic, the effects of the war in Ukraine and lately the financial burden of load shedding on companies to run their businesses, this paper argues for a policy shift toward deregulation or a lesser state and judiciary intervention. This initiative will relieve the burden on companies to run a viable business while at the same time protecting existing jobs.

Keywords: labour law, replacement labour, right to strike, free market foundation perspective, social justice perspective

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1009 Emotional Awareness and Working Memory as Predictive Factors for the Habitual Use of Cognitive Reappraisal among Adolescents

Authors: Yuri Kitahara

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Background: Cognitive reappraisal refers to an emotion regulation strategy in which one changes the interpretation of emotion-eliciting events. Numerous studies show that cognitive reappraisal is associated with mental health and better social functioning. However the examination of the predictive factors of adaptive emotion regulation remains as an issue. The present study examined the factors contributing to the habitual use of cognitive reappraisal, with a focus on emotional awareness and working memory. Methods: Data was collected from 30 junior high school students, using a Japanese version of the Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ), the Levels of Emotional Awareness Scale for Children (LEAS-C), and N-back task. Results: A positive correlation between emotional awareness and cognitive reappraisal was observed in the high-working-memory group (r = .54, p < .05), whereas no significant relationship was found in the low-working-memory group. In addition, the results of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed a significant interaction between emotional awareness and working memory capacity (F(1, 26) = 7.74, p < .05). Subsequent analysis of simple main effects confirmed that high working memory capacity significantly increases the use of cognitive reappraisal for high-emotional-awareness subjects, and significantly decreases the use of cognitive reappraisal for low-emotional-awareness subjects. Discussion: These results indicate that under the condition when one has an adequate ability for simultaneous processing of information, explicit understanding of emotion would contribute to adaptive cognitive emotion regulation. The findings are discussed along with neuroscientific claims.

Keywords: cognitive reappraisal, emotional awareness, emotion regulation, working memory

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1008 Early Childhood Education: Teachers Ability to Assess

Authors: Ade Dwi Utami

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Pedagogic competence is the basic competence of teachers to perform their tasks as educators. The ability to assess has become one of the demands in teachers pedagogic competence. Teachers ability to assess is related to curriculum instructions and applications. This research is aimed at obtaining data concerning teachers ability to assess that comprises of understanding assessment, determining assessment type, tools and procedure, conducting assessment process, and using assessment result information. It uses mixed method of explanatory technique in which qualitative data is used to verify the quantitative data obtained through a survey. The technique of quantitative data collection is by test whereas the qualitative data collection is by observation, interview and documentation. Then, the analyzed data is processed through a proportion study technique to be categorized into high, medium and low. The result of the research shows that teachers ability to assess can be grouped into 3 namely, 2% of high, 4% of medium and 94% of low. The data shows that teachers ability to assess is still relatively low. Teachers are lack of knowledge and comprehension in assessment application. The statement is verified by the qualitative data showing that teachers did not state which aspect was assessed in learning, record children’s behavior, and use the data result as a consideration to design a program. Teachers have assessment documents yet they only serve as means of completing teachers administration for the certification program. Thus, assessment documents were not used with the basis of acquired knowledge. The condition should become a consideration of the education institution of educators and the government to improve teachers pedagogic competence, including the ability to assess.

Keywords: assessment, early childhood education, pedagogic competence, teachers

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1007 What Constitutes Pre-School Mathematics and How It Look Like in the Classroom?

Authors: Chako G. Chako

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This study reports on an ongoing research that explores pre-school mathematics. Participants in the study includes three pre-school teachers and their pre-school learners from one school in Gaborone. The school was purposefully selected based on its performance in Botswana’s 2019 national examinations. Specifically, the study is interested on teachers’ explanations of mathematics concepts embedded in pre-school mathematics tasks. The interest on explanations was informed by the view that suggests that, the mathematics learners get to learn, resides in teachers’ explanations. Recently, Botswana’s basic education has integrated pre-school education into the mainstream public primary school education. This move is part of the government’s drive to elevate Botswana to a knowledge-based-economy. It is believed that provision of pre-school education to all Batswana children will contribute immensely towards a knowledge-based-economy. Since pre-school is now a new phenomenon in our education, there is limited research at this level of education in Botswana. In particular, there is limited knowledge about what and how the teaching is conducted in Pre-Schools in Botswana. Hence, the study seeks to gain insight into what constitutes mathematics in tasks that learners are given, and how concepts are made accessible to Pre-school learners. The research question of interest for this study is stated as: What is the nature Pre-school teachers’ explanations of mathematics concepts embedded in tasks given to learners. Casting some light into what and how pre-school mathematics tasks are enacted is critical for policy and Pre-school teacher professional development. The sociocultural perspective framed the research. Adler and Rhonda’s (2014) notion of exemplification and explanatory communication are used to analyze tasks given to learners and teachers’ explanations respectively.

Keywords: classroom, explanation, mathematics, pre-school, tasks

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1006 Export and Import Indicators of Georgian Agri-food Products during the Pandemic: Challenges and Opportunities

Authors: Eteri Kharaishvili

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Introduction. The paper analyzes the main indicators of export and import of Georgian agri-food products; identifies positive and negative trends under the pandemic; based on the revealed problemssubstantiates the need formodernization ofin agri-food sector. It is argued that low production and productivity rates of food products negatively impact achieving the optimal export-to-import ratio; therefore, it leads toincreaseddependence on other countries andreduces the level of food security. Research objectives. The objective of the research is to identify the key challenges based on the analysis of export-import indicators of Georgian food products during the pandemic period and develop recommendations on the possibilities of post-pandemic perspectives. Research methods. Various theoretical and methodological research tools are used in the paper; in particular, a desk research is carried out on the research topic; endogenous and exogenous variables affecting export and import are determined through factor analysis; SWOT and PESTEL analysis are used to identify development opportunities; selection and groupingof data, identification of similarities and differences is carried outby using analysis, synthesis, sampling, induction and other methods; a qualitative study is conducted based on a survey of agri-food experts and exporters for clarifying the factors that impede export-import flows. Contributions. The factors that impede the export of Georgian agri-food products in the short run under COVID-19 pandemic are identified. These are: reduced income of farmers, delays in the supply of raw materials and supplies to the agri-food sectorfrom the neighboring industries, as well as in harvesting, processing, marketing, transportation, and other sectors; increased indirect costs, etc. The factors that impede the export in the long run areas follows loss of public confidence in the industry, risk of losing positions in traditional markets, etc. Conclusions are made on the problems in the field of export and import of Georgian agri-food products in terms of the pandemic; development opportunities are evaluated based on the analysis of the agri-food sector potential. Recommendations on the development opportunities for export and import of Georgian agri-food products in the post-pandemic period are proposed.

Keywords: agri-food products, export, and import, pandemic period, hindering factor, development potential

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1005 Blue Finance: A Systematical Review of the Academic Literature on Investment Streams for Marine Conservation

Authors: David Broussard

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This review article delves into the realm of marine conservation finance, addressing the inadequacies in current financial streams from the private sector and the underutilization of existing financing mechanisms. The study emphasizes the emerging field of “blue finance”, which contributes to economic growth, improved livelihoods, and marine ecosystem health. The financial burden of marine conservation projects typically falls on philanthropists and governments, contrary to the polluter-pays principle. However, the private sector’s increasing commitment to NetZero and growing environmental and social responsibility goals prompts the need for alternative funding sources for marine conservation initiatives like marine protected areas. The article explores the potential of utilizing several financing mechanisms like carbon credits and other forms of payment for ecosystem services in the marine context, providing a solution to the lack of private funding for marine conservation. The methodology employed involves a systematic and quantitative approach, combining traditional review methods and elements of meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of the years 2000 - 2023, using relevant keywords on the Scopus platform, resulted in a review of 252 articles. The temporal evolution of blue finance studies reveals a significant increase in annual articles from 2010 to 2022, with notable peaks in 2011 and 2022. Marine Policy, Ecosystem Services, and Frontiers in Marine Science are prominent journals in this field. While the majority of articles focus on payment for ecosystem services, there is a growing awareness of the need for holistic approaches in conservation finance. Utilizing bibliometric techniques, the article showcases the dominant share of payment for ecosystem services in the literature with a focus on blue carbon. The classification of articles based on various criteria, including financing mechanisms and conservation types, aids in categorizing and understanding the diversity of research objectives and perspectives in this complex field of marine conservation finance.

Keywords: biodiversity offsets, carbon credits, ecosystem services, impact investment, payment for ecosystem services

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1004 Facilitating Career Development of Women in Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Medicine: Towards Increasing Understanding, Participation, Progression and Retention through an Intersectionality Perspective

Authors: Maria Tsouroufli, Andrea Mondokova, Subashini Suresh

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Background: The under-representation of women and consequent failure to fulfil their potential contribution to Science, Technology, Engineering, Maths, and Medicine (STEMM) subjects in the UK is an issue that the Higher Education sector is being encouraged to address. Focus: The aim of this research is to investigate the barriers, facilitators, and incentives that influence diverse groups of women who have embarked upon a related career in STEMM subjects. The project will address a number of interconnected research questions: 1. How do participants perceive the barriers, facilitators and incentives for women in terms of research, teaching and management/leadership at each stage of their development towards forging a career in STEMM? 2. How might gender intersect with ethnicity, pregnancy/maternity and academic grade in the career experiences of women in STEMM? 3. How do participants perceive the example of female role models in emulating them as a career model? 4. How do successful females in STEMM see themselves as role models and what strategies do they employ to promote their careers? 5. How does institutional culture manifest itself as a barrier or facilitator for women in STEMM subjects in the institution? Methodology and Theoretical framework: A mixed-methodology will be employed in a case study of one university. The study will draw on extant quantitative data for context and involve conducting a qualitative inquiry to discover the perceptions of staff and students around the key concepts under study (career progression, sense of belonging and tenure, role-models, personal satisfaction, perceived gender in/equality, institutional culture). The analysis will be informed by an intersectionality framework, feminist and gender theory, and organisational psychology and human resource management perspectives. Implications: Preliminary findings will be collected in 2017. Conclusions will be drawn and used to inform recruitment and retention, and the development and implementation of initiatives to enhance the experiences and outcomes of women working and studying in STEMM subjects in Higher Education.

Keywords: under-representation, women, STEMM subjects, intersectionality

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1003 Brain Networks and Mathematical Learning Processes of Children

Authors: Felicitas Pielsticker, Christoph Pielsticker, Ingo Witzke

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Neurological findings provide foundational results for many different disciplines. In this article we want to discuss these with a special focus on mathematics education. The intention is to make neuroscience research useful for the description of cognitive mathematical learning processes. A key issue of mathematics education is that students often behave as if their mathematical knowledge is constructed in isolated compartments with respect to the specific context of the original learning situation; supporting students to link these compartments to form a coherent mathematical society of mind is a fundamental task not only for mathematics teachers. This aspect goes hand in hand with the question if there is such a thing as abstract general mathematical knowledge detached from concrete reality. Educational Neuroscience may give answers to the question why students develop their mathematical knowledge in isolated subjective domains of experience and if it is generally possible to think in abstract terms. To address these questions, we will provide examples from different fields of mathematics education e.g. students’ development and understanding of the general concept of variables or the mathematical notion of universal proofs. We want to discuss these aspects in the reflection of functional studies which elucidate the role of specific brain regions in mathematical learning processes. In doing this the paper addresses concept formation processes of students in the mathematics classroom and how to support them adequately considering the results of (educational) neuroscience.

Keywords: brain regions, concept formation processes in mathematics education, proofs, teaching-learning processes

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1002 Desk Graffiti as Art, Archive or Collective Knowledge Sharing: A Case Study of Schools in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Behailu Bezabih Ayele

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Illustrative expressions in art education and in overall learning are being given increasing attention in the transmission of knowledge. The objective of this paper, therefore, is to present an analysis of graffiti on school desks-a way of smuggling knowledge on the edge of classroom education and learning. The methodological approach focuses on the systematic collection and selection of desk graffiti. Four schools are chosen to reflect socioeconomic status and gender composition. The analysis focused on the categorization of graffiti by genre. This was followed by an analysis of the style, intensity as well as content of the messages in terms of overall social impacts. The paper grounds the analysis by reviewing the literature on modern education and art education in the Ethiopian context, as well as the place of desk graffiti. The findings generally show that the school desks and the school environment, by and large, have managed to serve as vessels through which formal and informal knowledge is acquired, transmitted, engrained into the students and transformed into messages by the students. The desks have also apparently served as a springboard to maximize the interfaces between several ideas and disciplines and communications. However, the very fact that the desks serve as massive channels of expression and knowledge transmission also points to a lack of breadth availability of channels of expression, perhaps confounding the ability of classrooms as means of outlet of expression and documentation for the students. This points to the need for efforts in education policy and funding of artistic endeavors for young students.

Keywords: artistic expression, desk graffiti, education, school children, Ethiopia

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1001 Molecular Epidemiology of Rotavirus in Post-Vaccination Era in Pediatric Patients with Acute Gastroenteritis in Thailand

Authors: Nutthawadee Jampanil, Kattareeya Kumthip, Niwat Maneekarn, Pattara Khamrin

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Rotavirus A is one of the leading causes of acute gastroenteritis in children younger than five years of age, especially in low-income countries in Africa and South Asia. Two live-attenuated oral rotavirus vaccines, Rotarix and RotaTeq, have been introduced into routine immunization programs in many countries and have proven highly effective in reducing the burden of rotavirus-associated morbidity and mortality. In Thailand, Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines have been included in the national childhood immunization program since 2020. The objectives of this research are to conduct a molecular epidemiological study and to characterize rotavirus genotypes circulating in pediatric patients with acute diarrhea in Chiang Mai, Thailand, from 2020-2022 after the implementation of rotavirus vaccines. Out of 858 stool specimens, 26 (3.0%) were positive for rotavirus A. G3P[8] (23.0%) was detected as the most predominant genotype, followed by G1P[8] (19.2%), G8P[8] (19.2%), G9P[8] (15.3%), G2P[4] (7.7%), G1P[6] (3.9%), G9P[4] (3.9%), and G8P[X] (3.9%). In addition, the uncommon rotavirus strain G3P[23] (3.9%) was also detected in this study, and this G3P[23] strain displayed a genetic background similar to the porcine rotavirus. In conclusion, there was a dramatic change in the prevalence of rotavirus A infection and the diversity of rotavirus A genotypes in pediatric patients in Chiang Mai, Northern Thailand, in the rotavirus post-vaccination period. The finding obtained from this research contributes to a better understanding of rotavirus epidemiology after rotavirus vaccine introduction. Furthermore, the identification of unusual G and P genotype combination strains provides significant evidence for the potential interspecies transmission between human and animal rotaviruses.

Keywords: rotavirus, infectious disease, gastroenteritis, Thailand

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1000 Comparing Media-Based Strategies of Identity Formation in Chicanos and Cuban-Americans

Authors: Kwang Yeon Kim

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This paper will explore the directly proportional relationship between the influence of Hispanophone media in U.S. markets and Hispanic population growth. Though this growth has origins across south and central America, in U.S. media markets Mexican and Cuban immigrants, have traditionally been considered the most influential. Having endured significant historical discrimination, disparagement, and ethnic framing from conventional Anglophone media, such groups have sought to form their own identities as media consuming and producing Americans of Latin American origin. Although immigrants to the U.S. have traditionally faced obstacles in access to education, children of Mexican-Americans (Chicanos) and Cuban-Americans have made significant progress in overcoming these obstacles, partly explaining their media dominance. This is particularly true in the case of Cuban-Americans, for whom such media presence is not predicted by share of population. By conducting comparative studies of Chicano media and Cuban-Americans media, common ground was found in strategies of reliance on media-driven identity formation. In contrast to the mainstream media portrayal of Latino/as with limiting, negative stereotypes, Spanish-language media’s goal is to form the identity of being Latino for those living in the United States. Providing both news from countries of origin and local news within the United States, Chicano and Cuban-American media performs rituals of recollection while rooting such populations in more proximate media paradigms.

Keywords: Chicano identity, Cuban-Americans, Hispanophone media, Latino/a community

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999 Examination of Predictive Factors of Depression among Asian American Adolescents: A Narrative Review

Authors: Annisa Siu, Ping Zou

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Background: Existent literature addressing Asian American children and adolescents reveals that this population is experiencing rates of depression comparable to those of European American and other ethnic minority youths. Within the last decade, increased attention has been given to Asian American adolescent mental health. Methods: 44 articles were extracted from Pubmed, PsycINFO, EMBASE, and Proquest CINAHL. Data were subject to thematic analyses and categorized into factors under individual, familial, and community levels. Results: Of all the individual factors, age and gender were the most supported in their relationship with depressive symptoms. Likewise, living situations, parent-child relations, peer relations, and broader environmental factors were strongly evidenced. The remaining psychosocial factors faced contrary evidence or were insubstantially addressed in the empirical literature. Discussion: The identified psychosocial factors within this study offer a starting point for future research to examine what factors should be included in formal or informal methods of screening/consultations. Clinicians should aim to understand the cultural influences specific to Asian American adolescents, particularly the central role that family relations may have on their depressive symptoms. Conclusion: Low awareness of culturally linked expressions of psychological distress can lead to misdiagnosis or under-diagnosis of depression in Asian American youth. Further evidence is needed to clarify the relationship of psychosocial factors linked to Asian American adolescent depressive symptoms.

Keywords: adolescent, Asian American, depression, psychosocial factors

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998 The Efficacy of Clobazam for Landau-Kleffner Syndrome

Authors: Nino Gogatishvili, Davit Kvernadze, Giorgi Japharidze

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Background and aims: Landau Kleffner syndrome (LKS) is a rare disorder with epileptic seizures and acquired aphasia. It usually starts in initially healthy children. The first symptoms are language regression and behavioral disturbances, and the sleep EEG reveals abnormal epileptiform activity. The aim was to discuss the efficacy of Clobazam for Landau Kleffner syndrome. Case report: We report a case of an 11-year-old boy with an uneventful pregnancy and delivery. He began to walk at 11 months and speak with simple phrases at the age of 2,5 years. At the age of 18 months, he had febrile convulsions; at the age of 5 years, the parents noticed language regression, stuttering, and serious behavioral dysfunction, including hyperactivity, temper outbursts. The epileptic seizure was not noticed. MRI was without any abnormality. Neuropsychological testing revealed verbal auditory agnosia. Sleep EEG showed abundant left fronto-temporal spikes, reaching over 85% during non-rapid eye movement sleep (non-REM sleep). Treatment was started with Clobazam. After ten weeks, EEG was improved. Stuttering and behavior also improved. Results: Since the start of Clobazam treatment, stuttering and behavior improved. Now, he is 11 years old, without antiseizure medication. Sleep EEG shows fronto-temporal spikes on the left side, over 10-49 % of non-REM sleep, bioccipital spikes, and slow-wave discharges and spike-waves. Conclusions: This case provides further support for the efficacy of Clobazam in patients with LKS.

Keywords: Landau-Kleffner syndrome, antiseizure medication, stuttering, aphasia

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997 Antibiogram Profile of Antibacterial Multidrug Resistance in Democratic Republic of Congo: Situation in Bukavu City Hospitals

Authors: Justin Ntokamunda Kadima, Christian Ahadi Irenge, Patient Birindwa Mulashe, Félicien Mushagalusa Kasali, Patient Wimba

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Background: Bacterial strains carrying multidrug resistance traits are gaining ground worldwide, especially in countries with limited resources. This study aimed to evaluate the spreading of multidrug-resistant bacteria strains in Bukavu city hospitals in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods: We analyzed 758 antibiogram data recorded in files of patients consulted between January 2016 and December 2017 at three reference hospitals selected as sentinel sites, namely the Panzi General Reference Hospital (HGP), BIO -PHARM hospital (HBP), and Saint Luc Clinic (CSL). Results: Of 758 isolates tested, the laboratories identified 12 bacterial strains in 712 isolates, of which 223 (29.42%) presented MDR profile, including Escherichia coli (11.48%), Klebsiella pneumonia (6.07%), Enterobacter (5.8%), Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococci (1.58%), Proteus mirabilis (1.85%), Salmonella enterica (1.19%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (0.53%), Streptococcus pneumonia (0.4%)), Citrobacter (0.13%), Neisseria gonorrhea (0.13%), Enterococcus faecalis (0.13%), and Morganella morganii (0.13%). Infected patients were significantly more adults (73.1% vs. 21.5%) compared to children and mainly women (63.7% vs. 30.9%; p = 0.001). Conclusion: The observed expansion requires that hospital therapeutic committees set up an effective clinical management system and define the right combinations of antibiotics.

Keywords: multidrug resistance, bacteria, antibiogram, Bukavu

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996 Gender, Occupational Status, Work-to-Family Conflict, and the Roles of Stressors among Korean Immigrants: Rethinking the Concept of the 'Stress of Higher Status'

Authors: Il-Ho Kim, Samuel Noh, Kwame McKenzie, Cyu-Chul Choi

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Introduction: The ‘stress of higher status’ hypothesis suggests that workers with higher-status occupations are more likely to experience work-to-family conflict (WFC) than those with lower-status occupations. Yet, the occupational difference in WFC and its mechanisms have not been explicitly explored within Asian culture. This present study examines (a) the association between occupational status and WFC and (b) the mediating roles of work-related stressors and resources, focused on gender perspectives using a sample of Korean immigrants. Methods: Data were derived from a cross-sectional survey of foreign born Korean immigrants who were currently working at least two years in the Greater Area of Toronto or surrounding towns. The sample was stratified for equivalent presentations of micro-business owners (N=555) and paid employees in diverse occupational categories (N=733). Results: We found gender differences and similarities in the link between occupational status and WFC and the mediating roles of work-related variables. Compared to skilled/unskilled counterparts, male immigrants in professional, service, and microbusiness jobs reported higher levels of WFC, whereas female immigrants in higher-status occupations were more likely to have WFC with the exception of the highest levels of WFC among microbusiness owners. Regardless of gender, both male and female immigrants who have longer weekly work hours, shift work schedule, and high emotional and psychological demands were significantly associated with high levels of WFC. However, skill development was related to WFC only among male immigrants. Regarding the mediating roles of work-related factors, among female immigrants, the occupational difference in WFC was fully mediated by weekly work hours, shift work schedule, and emotional and psychological demands with the exception of the case of microbusiness workers. Among male immigrants, the occupational differences remained virtually unchanged after controlling for these mediators. Conclusions: Our results partially confirmed the ‘stress of higher status’ hypothesis among female immigrants. Additionally, work-related stressors seem to be critical mediators of the link between occupations and WFC only for female immigrants.

Keywords: work-to-family conflict, gender, work conditions, job demands, job resources

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995 Political Coercion from Within: Theoretical Convergence in the Strategies of Terrorist Groups, Insurgencies, and Social Movements

Authors: John Hardy

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The early twenty-first century national security environment has been characterized by political coercion. Despite an abundance of political commentary on the various forms of non-state coercion leveraged against the state, there is a lack of literature which distinguishes between the mechanisms and the mediums of coercion. Frequently non-state movements seeking to coerce the state are labelled by their tactics, not their strategies. Terrorists, insurgencies and social movements are largely defined by the ways in which they seek to influence the state, rather than by their political aims. This study examines the strategies of coercion used by non-state actors against states. This approach includes terrorist groups, insurgencies, and social movements who seek to coerce state politics. Not all non-state actors seek political coercion, so not all examples of different group types are considered. This approach also excludes political coercion by states, focusing on the non-state actor as the primary unit of analysis. The study applies a general theory of political coercion, which is defined as attempts to change the policies or action of a polity against its will, to the strategies employed by terrorist groups, insurgencies, and social movements. This distinguishes non-state actors’ strategic objectives from their actions and motives, which are variables that are often used to differentiate between types of non-state actors and the labels commonly used to describe them. It also allows for a comparative analysis of theoretical perspectives from the disciplines of terrorism, insurgency and counterinsurgency, and social movements. The study finds that there is a significant degree of overlap in the way that different disciplines conceptualize the mechanism of political coercion by non-state actors. Studies of terrorism and counterterrorism focus more on the notions of cost tolerance and collective punishment, while studies of insurgency focus on a contest of legitimacy between actors, and social movement theory tend to link political objectives, social capital, and a mechanism of influence to leverage against the state. Each discipline has a particular vernacular for the mechanism of coercion, which is often linked to the means of coercion, but they converge on three core theoretical components of compelling a polity to change its policies or actions: exceeding resistance to change, using political or violent punishments, and withholding legitimacy or consent from a government.

Keywords: counter terrorism, homeland security, insurgency, political coercion, social movement theory, terrorism

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994 Knowledge Co-Production on Future Climate-Change-Induced Mass-Movement Risks in Alpine Regions

Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

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The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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993 Public Art as Social Critique to Shape Urban-Scape

Authors: Po-Ching Wang

Abstract:

Public art may be regarded as a social agenda. It is assumed that public art acts as an intermediate form that contributes significantly to community resurgence. That is, public art may be regarded as a verb/process or social intervention. It functions as a vanguard form, attacking boundaries and providing a sensibility for social strategy. Public art in tradition is generally expected to bring aesthetic pleasure to public. Contemporary public art, however, not only focuses on art installation, but it also often offers a process that aims to comment on, question, and challenge the socio-cultural status quo. During the last few decades, accelerated changes in the values and expectations brought to bear on varied urban issues, together with the destruction of the hegemony of traditional art and of museum authorities, has begun to contribute to freer and more democratic representations of public art. It is said that part of a public artwork’s role is to ruffle sacred feathers. In many cases, public art is created to address the dynamic social contradictions and mutability of public life; and artists and community participants approach public art from a variety of social critical perspectives and methodologies. Urban issues, such as social and environmental justice, health problems, violence, and political statements, provide plentiful source materials that fuel the performance of public art in many different settings. Further, public artworks have been extensively adopted to express social identity, make political statements, and/or to remedy social and environmental crises. Many murals on urban walls, for instance, reflect social conflicts and address civic rights, and these projects are usually the work of artists who though denied access to traditional gallery and museum channels are supported by community engagement and involvement. Public art as a social practice challenges the traditional western view of artistic practice. Art in the public realm creates a new media that provides a platform for a dialogical exchange between diverse social groups. It seems that public art has evolved as an arena for activism that addresses wide-ranging and highly controversial social issues and civilian concerns. The findings of this study indicate that public artworks are capable of playing a role of activist in facilitating community evolution via social progress.

Keywords: aesthetics, community regeneration, city development, publicness, public participation, social progress

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992 Bullying with Neurodiverse Students and Education Policy Reform

Authors: Fharia Tilat Loba

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Studies show that there is a certain group of students who are more vulnerable to bullying due to their physical appearance, disability, sexual preference, race, and lack of social and behavioral skills. Students with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are one of the most vulnerable groups among these at-risk groups. Researchers suggest that focusing on vulnerable groups of students who can be the target of bullying helps to understand the causes and patterns of aggression, which ultimately helps in structuring intervention programs to reduce bullying. Since Australia ratified the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in 2006, it has been committed to providing an inclusive, safe, and effective learning environment for all children. In addition, the 2005 Disability Standards for Education seeks to ensure that students with disabilities can access and participate in education on the same basis as other students, covering all aspects of education, including harassment and victimization. However, bullying hinders students’ ability to fully participate in schooling. The proposed study aims to synthesize the notions of traditional bullying and cyberbullying and attempts to understand the experiences of students with ASD who are experiencing bullying in their schools. The proposed study will primarily focus on identifying the gaps between policy and practice related to bullying, and it will also attempt to understand the experiences of parents of students with ASD and professionals who have experience dealing with bullying at the school level in Australia. This study is expected to contribute to the theoretical knowledge of the bullying phenomenon and provide a reference for advocacy at the school, organization, and government levels.

Keywords: education policy, bullying, Australia, neurodiversity

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991 Student Debt Loans and Labor Market Outcomes: A Lesson in Unintended Consequences

Authors: Sun-Ki Choi

Abstract:

The U.S. student loan policy was initiated to improve the equality of educational opportunity and help low-income families to provide higher education opportunities for their children. However, with the increase in the average student loan amount, college graduates with student loans experience problems and restrictions in their early-career choices. This study examines the early career labor market choices of college graduates who obtained student loans to finance their higher education. In this study, National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG) data for 2017 and 2019 was used to estimate the effects of student loans on the employment status and current job wages of graduates with student loans. In the analysis, two groups of workers, those with student loans and those without loans, were compared. Using basic models and Mahalanobis distance matching, it was found that graduates who rely on student loans to finance their education are more likely to participate in the labor market than those who do not. Moreover, in entry-level jobs, graduates with student loans receive lower salaries than those without student loans. College graduates make job-related decisions based on their current and future wages and fringe benefits. Graduates with student loans tend to demonstrate risk-averse behaviors due to their financial restrictions. Thus, student loan debt creates inequity in the early-career labor market for college graduates. Furthermore, this study has implications for policymakers and researchers in terms of the student loan policy.

Keywords: student loan, wage differential, unintended consequences, mahalanobis distance matching

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990 Immunoinformatic Design and Evaluation of an Epitope-Based Tetravalent Vaccine against Human Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease

Authors: Aliyu Maje Bello, Yaowaluck Maprang Roshorm

Abstract:

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious viral infection affecting mostly infants and children. Although the Enterovirus A71 (EV71) is usually the major causative agent of HFMD, other enteroviruses such as coxsackievirus A16, A10, and A6 are also found in some of the recent outbreaks. The commercially available vaccines have demonstrated their effectiveness against only EV71 infection but no protection against other enteroviruses. To address the limitation of the monovalent EV71 vaccine, the present study thus designed a tetravalent vaccine against the four major enteroviruses causing HFMD and primarily evaluated the designed vaccine using an immunoinformatics approach. The immunogen was designed to contain the EV71 VP1 protein and multiple reported epitopes from all four distinct enteroviruses and thus designated a tetravalent vaccine. The 3D structure of the designed tetravalent vaccine was modeled, refined, and validated. Epitope screening showed the presence of B-cell, CTL, CD4 T cell, and IFN epitopes with vast application among the Asian population. Docking analysis confirmed the stable and strong binding interactions between the immunogen and immune receptor B-cell receptor (BCR). In silico cloning and immune simulation analyses guaranteed high efficiency and sufficient expression of the vaccine candidate in humans. Overall, the promising results obtained from the in-silico studies of the proposed tetravalent vaccine make it a potential candidate worth further experimental validation.

Keywords: enteroviruses, coxsackieviruses, hand foot and mouth disease, immunoinformatics, tetravalent vaccine

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989 Rethinking Confucianism and Democracy

Authors: He Li

Abstract:

Around the mid-1980s, Confucianism was reintroduced into China from Taiwan and Hong Kong as a result of China’s policies of reform and openness. Since then, the revival of neo-Confucianism in mainland China has accelerated and become a crucial component of the public intellectual sphere. The term xinrujia or xinruxue, loosely translated as “neo-Confucianism,” is increasingly understood as an intellectual and cultural phenomenon of the last four decades. The Confucian scholarship is in the process of restoration. This paper examines the Chinese intellectual discourse on Confucianism and democracy and places it in comparative and theoretical perspectives. With China’s rise and surge of populism in the West, particularly in the US, the leading political values of Confucianism could increasingly shape both China and the world at large. This state of affairs points to the need for more systematic efforts to assess the discourse on neo-Confucianism and its implications for China’s transformation. A number of scholars in the camp of neo-Confucianism maintain that some elements of Confucianism are not only compatible with democratic values and institutions but actually promote liberal democracy. They refer to it as Confucian democracy. By contrast, others either view Confucianism as a roadblock to democracy or envision that a convergence of democracy with Confucian values could result in a new hybrid system. The paper traces the complex interplay between Confucianism and democracy. It explores ideological differences between neo-Confucianism and liberal democracy and ascertains whether certain features of neo-Confucianism possess an affinity for the authoritarian political system. In addition to printed materials such as books and journal articles, a selection of articles from the website entitled Confucianism in China will be analyzed. The selection of this website is due to the fact that it is the leading website run by Chinese scholars focusing on neo-Confucianism. Another reason for selecting this website is its accessibility and availability. In the past few years, quite a few websites, left or right, were shut down by the authorities, but this website remains open. This paper explores the core components, dynamics, and implications of neo-Confucianism. My paper is divided into three parts. The first one discusses the origins of neo-Confucianism. The second section reviews the intellectual discourse among Chinese scholars on Confucian democracy. The third one explores the implications of the Chinese intellectual discourse on neo-Confucianism. Recently, liberal democracy has entered more conflict with official ideology. This paper, which is based on my extensive interviews in China prior to the pandemic and analysis of the primary sources in Chinese, will lay the foundation for a chapter on neo-Confucianism and democracy in my next book-length manuscript, tentatively entitled Chinese Intellectual Discourse on Democracy.

Keywords: China, confucius, confucianism, neo-confucianism, democracy

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988 Community Engagement Strategies to Assist with the Development of an RCT Among People Living with HIV

Authors: Joyce K. Anastasi, Bernadette Capili

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Community Engagement Strategies to Assist with the Development of an RCT Among People Living with HIV Our research team focuses on developing and testing protocols to manage chronic symptoms. For many years, our team designed and implemented symptom management studies for people living with HIV (PLWH). We identify symptoms that are not curative and are not adequately controlled by conventional therapies. As an exemplar, we describe how we successfully engaged PLWH in developing and refining our research feasibility protocol for distal sensory peripheral neuropathy (DSP) associated with HIV. With input from PLWH with DSP, our research received National Institutes of Health (NIH) research funding support. Significance: DSP is one of the most common neurologic complications in HIV. It is estimated that DSP affects 21% to 50% of PLWH. The pathogenesis of DSP in HIV is complex and unclear. Proposed mechanisms include cytokine dysregulation, viral protein-produced neurotoxicity, and mitochondrial dysfunction associated with antiretroviral medications. There are no FDA-approved treatments for DSP in HIV. Purpose: Aims: 1) to explore the impact of DSP on the lives of PLWH, 2) to identify patients’ perspectives on successful treatments for DSP, 3) to identify interventions considered feasible and sensitive to the needs of PLWH with DSP, and 4) to obtain participant input for protocol/study design. Description of Process: We conducted a needs assessment with PLWH with DSP. From our needs assessment, we learned from the patients’ perspective detailed descriptions of their symptoms; physical functioning with DSP; self-care remedies tried, and desired interventions. We also asked about protocol scheduling, instrument clarity, study compensation, study-related burdens, and willingness to participate in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a placebo and a waitlist group. Implications: We incorporated many of the suggestions learned from the need assessment. We developed and completed a feasibility study that provided us with invaluable information that informed subsequent NIH-funded studies. In addition to our extensive clinical and research experience working with PLWH, learning from the patient perspective helped in developing our protocol and promoting a successful plan for recruitment and retention of study participants.

Keywords: clinical trial development, peripheral neuropathy, traditional medicine, HIV, AIDS

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987 A Study of Relationship between Leadership Style and Organisational Culture in Private Organisations

Authors: Shreya Sirohi, Vineeta Sirohi

Abstract:

In the 21st century, the nature of work has become quite complex and dynamic, and in response to this, the organizational culture continues to change and develop new perspectives. Organizational culture and leadership are important elements of any organization. Organization’s performance and success to a large extent, depend upon these two factors. The ability of a leader lies in confronting with the challenge of evolving and adapting the culture of the organization as per the situational demands. Leadership and organizational culture are conceptually intertwined. Leadership is a key ingredient for the successful transformation of any organization, and a favorable organizational culture helps to motivate the employees towards their work. Organizational culture and leadership style plays a crucial role in achieving the specified objectives of an organization. The harmony between culture and leader within organization undoubtedly affects relationships, processes, and employee performance. The present investigation aimed to study the Leadership style and Organisational Culture of private organizations and the relationship between the two. The study was carried out on a sample of 100 employees from five private organizations located in the cities of Gurgaon and Delhi in India. The data was collected by employing organisational culture profile and multifactor leadership questionnaire. The findings of the study indicate that the selected organizations had dominant transformation leadership style, whereas the organizational culture varied from one organization to another. However, technocratic culture was found to be prominent, followed by entrepreneurial organizational culture. A low positive correlation was found between leadership style and organizational culture. The transformational leaders have a positive and significant relationship with employee’s satisfaction, productivity, and organization’s culture. The leaders practicing transformational leadership style inspire their followers, are innovative and are aware of their needs as well as of their followers. Such leadership style has a positive impact both on employees and working culture. Employees of such organization are able to come up with innovative ideas and are efficient in handling situations and making effective decisions. However, low correlation is self indicative of the fact that a single leadership style or a single culture type alone cannot contribute solely towards the growth of an organization. There is a need to blend the culture types and leadership styles suiting the needs of the organization. Organisational culture represents the deeper values and beliefs of the employees and influences organizational performance; hence, the leader has a crucial role to play in creating and managing organizational culture in aligning to the requirements of the present era of competitiveness, globalization and technological advancement.

Keywords: leadership style, organizational culture, technocratic, transformational

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986 Poetics of Labor: A Study of Selected Contemporary Australian Aboriginal and Immigrant Poets

Authors: Nabeel Mohammed Ali

Abstract:

Background and significance of the study: This study focuses on the experiences, perspectives, and issues of the working-class Aboriginals and immigrants in Australia. In addition to dealing with their lives, struggles, and aspirations of working-class people, poetry of labor presents an insight into a neglected literary writing that goes beyond the social discourse of class distinction. In this contemporary context, it explores a broader spectrum of challenges and experiences, such as the complexities of modern labor, immigration, indigenous rights, social justice, multiculturalism, economic inequality, advocating for workers' rights and labor movements, the impact of globalization on local industries, and the evolution of labor in the digital age. Aims of the Study: The study will try to answer the following questions: What insights does poetics of labor provide to affect the literary creation of poetry at the time, as well as whether it can create a change in the social fabric of Australian diversity? What are the main themes and issues that Aboriginal and immigrant poets address in their works? How do they reflect the realities and challenges of working-class people in Australia? How do they use language, form, and style to convey their messages and emotions? How do the poets engage with and critique the dominant narratives and ideologies of Australian society and culture? How do they challenge or resist the stereotypes, prejudices, and discrimination that they face? And how do they show solidarity or empathy with others who share similar struggles or aspirations? Methodology: The study will utilize traditional Marxist paradigms to analyze the poetry of the selected poets in the context of the evolving sociopolitical landscape of the 21st century. The Neo-Marxist literary criticism is used as a theoretical tool to analyze the texts. The concept of Power dynamics to analyze the intersectionality of race, labor and class. Findings: The poetry of contemporary Australian Aboriginal and immigrant poets labor, represents a critical, yet under-explored, discussion of the intersection of labor, class, and a multicultural identity. The study will deal with the poetry of the Aboriginal poet Ali Cobby Eckermann (1963- ) and the immigrant Chinese poet Ouyang Yu ( 1955- ).

Keywords: aboriginals, immigrants, Australia, working-class, Ali eckermann, ouyang Yu

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985 Evaluating and Supporting Student Engagement in Online Learning

Authors: Maria Hopkins

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Research on student engagement is founded on a desire to improve the quality of online instruction in both course design and delivery. A high level of student engagement is associated with a wide range of educational practices including purposeful student-faculty contact, peer to peer contact, active and collaborative learning, and positive factors such as student satisfaction, persistence, achievement, and learning. By encouraging student engagement, institutions of higher education can have a positive impact on student success that leads to retention and degree completion. The current research presents the results of an online student engagement survey which support faculty teaching practices to maximize the learning experience for online students. The ‘Indicators of Engaged Learning Online’ provide a framework that measures level of student engagement. Social constructivism and collaborative learning form the theoretical basis of the framework. Social constructivist pedagogy acknowledges the social nature of knowledge and its creation in the minds of individual learners. Some important themes that flow from social constructivism involve the importance of collaboration among instructors and students, active learning vs passive consumption of information, a learning environment that is learner and learning centered, which promotes multiple perspectives, and the use of social tools in the online environment to construct knowledge. The results of the survey indicated themes that emphasized the importance of: Interaction among peers and faculty (collaboration); Timely feedback on assignment/assessments; Faculty participation and visibility; Relevance and real-world application (in terms of assignments, activities, and assessments); and Motivation/interest (the need for faculty to motivate students especially those that may not have an interest in the coursework per se). The qualitative aspect of this student engagement study revealed what instructors did well that made students feel engaged in the course, but also what instructors did not do well, which could inform recommendations to faculty when expectations for teaching a course are reviewed. Furthermore, this research provides evidence for the connection between higher student engagement and persistence and retention in online programs, which supports our rationale for encouraging student engagement, especially in the online environment because attrition rates are higher than in the face-to-face environment.

Keywords: instructional design, learning effectiveness, online learning, student engagement

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984 Departing beyond the Orthodoxy: An Integrative Review and Future Research Avenues of Human Capital Resources Theory

Authors: Long Zhang, Ian Hampson, Loretta O' Donnell

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Practitioners in various industries, especially in the finance industry that conventionally benefit from financial capital and resources, appear to be increasingly aware of the importance of human capital resources (HCR) after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Scholars from diverse fields have conducted extensive and fruitful research on HCR within their own disciplines. This review suggests that the mainstream of pure quantitative research alone is insufficient to provide precise or comprehensive understanding of HCR. The complex relationships and interactions in HCR call for more integrative and cross-disciplinary research to more holistically understand complex and intricate HCRs. The complex nature of HCR requires deep qualitative exploration based on in-depth data to capture the everydayness of organizational activities and to register its individuality and variety. Despite previous efforts, a systematic and holistic integration of HCR research among multiple disciplines is lacking. Using a retrospective analysis of articles published in the field of economics, finance and management, including psychology, human resources management (HRM), organizational behaviour (OB), industrial and organizational psychology (I-O psychology), organizational theory, and strategy literatures, this study summaries and compares the major perspectives, theories, and findings on HCR research. A careful examination of the progress of the debates of HCR definitions and measurements in distinct disciplines enables an identification of the limitations and gaps in existing research. It enables an analysis of the interplay of these concepts, as well as that of the related concepts of intellectual capital, social capital, and Chinese guanxi, and how they provide a broader perspective on the HCR-related influences on firms’ competitive advantage. The study also introduces the themes of Environmental, Social and Governance, or ESG based investing, as the burgeoning body of ESG studies illustrates the rising importance of human and non-financial capital in investment process. The ESG literature locates HCR into a broader research context of the value of non-financial capital in explaining firm performance. The study concludes with a discussion of new directions for future research that may help advance our knowledge of HCR.

Keywords: human capital resources, social capital, Chinese guanxi, human resources management

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983 Russian pipeline natural gas export strategy under uncertainty

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

Abstract:

Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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