Search results for: urban growth model

Authors: Abdelghani Qadem

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Urbanization in Morocco has ushered in profound shifts in hydrological dynamics, presenting a spectrum of challenges and avenues for sustainable water management. This abstract delves into the nuances of urban hydrology in Morocco, spotlighting the ramifications of rapid urban expansion, the imprint of climate change, and the imperative for cohesive water management strategies. The swift urban sprawl across Morocco has engendered a surge in impermeable surfaces, reshaping the natural hydrological cycle and amplifying quandaries such as urban inundations and water scarcity. Moreover, the specter of climate change looms large, heralding alterations in precipitation regimes and a heightened frequency of extreme meteorological events, thus compounding the hydrological conundrum. However, amidst these challenges, urban hydrology in Morocco also unfolds vistas of innovation and sustainability. The integration of green infrastructure, encompassing solutions like permeable pavements and vegetated roofs, emerges as a linchpin in ameliorating the hydrological imbalances wrought by urbanization, fostering infiltration, and curbing surface runoff. Additionally, embracing the tenets of water-sensitive urban design promises to fortify water efficiency and resilience in urban landscapes. Effectively navigating urban hydrology in Morocco mandates a cross-disciplinary approach that interweaves urban planning, water resource governance, and climate resilience strategies. A collaborative ethos, bridging governmental entities, academic institutions, and grassroots communities, assumes paramount importance in crafting and executing comprehensive solutions that grapple with the intricate interplay of urbanization, hydrology, and climate dynamics. In summation, confronting the labyrinthine challenges of urban hydrology in Morocco necessitates proactive strides toward fostering sustainable urban growth and bolstering resilience to climate vagaries. By embracing cutting-edge technologies and embracing an ethos of integrated water management, Morocco can forge a path toward a more water-secure and resilient urban future.

Keywords: urban hydrology, Morocco, urbanization, climate change, water management, green infrastructure, sustainable development

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Authors: Eğinç Simay Ertürk, Ferhan Gezi̇ci̇

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The decline of large cities and the rise of second-tier cities have been observed as a global trend with significant implications for economic development and urban planning. In this context, the concepts of agglomeration shadow and borrowed size have gained importance as network externalities that affect the growth and development of surrounding areas. Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara are Turkey's most significant metropolitan cities and play a significant role in the country's economy. The surrounding cities rely on these metropolitan cities for economic growth and development. However, the concentration of resources and investment in a single location can lead to agglomeration shadows in the surrounding areas. On the other hand, network connectivity between metropolitan and second-tier cities can result in borrowed function and performance, enabling smaller cities to access resources, investment, and knowledge they would not otherwise have access. The study hypothesizes that the network connectivity between second-tier and metropolitan cities in Turkey enables second-tier cities to increase their urban performance by borrowing size through these networks. Regression analysis will be used to identify specific network connectivity parameters most strongly associated with urban performance. Network connectivity will be measured with parameters such as transportation nodes and telecommunications infrastructure, and urban performance will be measured with an index, including parameters such as employment, education, and industry entrepreneurship, with data at the province levels. The contribution of the study lies in its research on how networking can benefit second-tier cities in Turkey.

Keywords: network connectivity, borrowed size, agglomeration shadow, secondary cities

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Authors: Norhan El Dallal

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The MENA region is a challenging, rapid urbanizing region, with a special profile; culturally, socially, economically and environmentally. Despite the diversity between different countries of the MENA region they all share similar urban challenges where extensive interventions are crucial. A climate sensitive region as the MENA region requires special attention for development, adaptation and mitigation. Integrating climatic and environmental parameters into the planning process to create a responsive urban form is the aim of this research in which “Parametric Urbanism” as a trend serves as a tool to reach a more sustainable urban morphology. An attempt to parameterize the relation between the climate and the urban form in a detailed manner is the main objective of the thesis. The aim is relating the different passive approaches suitable for the MENA region with the design guidelines of each and every part of the planning phase. Various conceptual scenarios for the network pattern and block subdivision generation based on computational models are the next steps after the parameterization. These theoretical models could be applied on different climatic zones of the dense communities of the MENA region to achieve an energy efficient neighborhood or city with respect to the urban form, morphology, and urban planning pattern. A final criticism of the theoretical model is to be conducted showing the feasibility of the proposed solutions economically. Finally some push and pull policies are to be proposed to help integrate these solutions into the planning process.

Keywords: parametric urbanism, climate responsive, urban form, urban and regional studies

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Authors: Dejene Gizaw Kidane

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This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth of Ethiopia using yearly time-series data for 1974 through 2013. Economic growth is proxies by real per capita gross domestic product and foreign direct investment proxies by the inflow of foreign direct investment. Other control variables such as gross domestic saving, trade, government consumption and inflation has been incorporated. In order to fully account for feedbacks, a vector autoregressive model is utilized. The results show that there is a stable, long-run relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth. The variance decomposition results show that the main sources of Ethiopia economic growth variations are due largely own shocks. The pairwise Granger causality results show that there is a unidirectional causality that runs from FDI to economic growth of Ethiopia. Hence, the researcher therefore recommends that, FDI facilitate economic growth, so the government has to exert much effort in order to attract more FDI into the country.

Keywords: real per capita GDP, FDI, co-integration, VECM, Granger causality

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Authors: Chethika Gunasiri Wadumestrige Dona, Geetha Mohan, Kensuke Fukushi

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Solid waste in urban areas, especially from organic materials like garden waste, food, and degradable sources, can create health and environmental problems if not managed properly. Urban agriculture has emerged as a potential solution in developing countries to mitigate these issues. It offers the possibility of low-carbon economies and knowledge and innovation dissemination. Domestic composting is a significant aspect of urban agriculture, and its success relies on the attitudes of those who practice it. This study examines the perspectives of 402 urban farmers in the Colombo District, Sri Lanka, regarding domestic compost production. It aims to identify the factors that influence these perspectives. The research found that urban farmers are willing to participate in domestic composting because they believe that it facilitates effective recycling of organic waste within their households. The study used an ordinal regression model to determine the factors that shape farmers' perspectives. Age, family size, and crop preferences are significant determinants of the adoption of domestic composting practices among urban farmers in the Colombo District. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and addressing farmers' attitudes in designing effective waste management strategies. In addition, the study also emphasizes the need for tailored interventions that align with farmers' beliefs and preferences to enhance the adoption and implementation of domestic composting practices in urban areas. The insights gained from this study contribute to the academic discourse and offer practical guidance for policymakers and urban planners seeking to promote sustainable waste management practices and support the adoption of urban agriculture in the broader context of urban development.

Keywords: urban agriculture, domestic composting, farmers` perspectives, sustainable urban development

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Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

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Authors: Xu Xiao China, Xu Lei China

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After the 1990s, the concept of urban sustainable development has been increasing attention in urban planning and urban design. High carbon city, not a sustainable city construction model, has become an important problem which restricts the sustainable development of the city. Therefore, low-carbon city construction is the urgent need to solve the problem, and China is one of the core areas of low-carbon city construction in the world. The research work of low-carbon cities were participated by the Chinese government and academic institutes on theory and practice since 2007, and nowadays it comes to a practice stage with six low-carbon pilot provinces and 36 low-carbon pilot cities identified. To achieve the low-carbon target, developing low-carbon energy, adopting non-pollution technique, constructing green buildings and adopting ecolife-style are suggest by the government. Meanwhile, besides a new standard system and a new eco-environmental status evaluation method, the government also established the Chinese urban development institute including the Low-Carbon City Group. Finally, we want to transform the modern industrial civilization into an ecological civilization and realize sustainable urban development.

Keywords: low-carbon city, China, development practice, system construction, urban sustainability

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Authors: Zheng Junchao, Wang Zhu

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With the advancement of China's urbanization process, the Chinese government has put forward the strategy of rural revitalization which is aiming at realizing the comprehensive integration of urban and rural areas and the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas. The path of rural revitalization in Zhejiang province put forward a typical model from four dimensions: suburban area, plain, island and mountain area. Research methods include on-the-spot investigation, visiting a number of successful demonstration villages in Zhejiang and interviewing village officials. Based on the location conditions, resource endowments, industrial forms and development foundations of Zhejiang Province, this paper introduces in detail the model of rural revitalization in Zhejiang Province and the challenges it encounters, as well as the role of building construction. The rural development model of Zhejiang province makes the rural culture flourish. Taking the construction of rural scenic spots as the carrier, the rural culture, and natural landscape are constantly improved. It provides a model and template for the country's rural revitalization. The promotion of Zhejiang rural revitalization model will improve the current rural landscape, living standard and industrial structure, which will narrow the urban-rural gap greatly.

Keywords: comprehensive rural revitalization, Zhejiang model, reproducible, comprehensive integration

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Authors: Xiaohan Gao, Kai Liu

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As essential components of urban areas, primary and secondary schools are extensively distributed throughout various regions of the city. During times of urban disturbances, these schools become direct carriers of complex disruptions. Therefore, fostering resilient schools becomes a pivotal driving force to promote high-quality urban development and a cornerstone of sustainable school growth. This paper adopts the theory of spatial resilience and focuses on primary and secondary schools in Chinese cities as the research subject. The study first explores the potential disturbance risks faced by schools and delves into the origin and concept of spatial resilience in the educational context. Subsequently, the paper conducts a meta-analysis to characterize the spatial resilience of primary and secondary schools and devises a spatial resilience planning mechanism. Drawing insights from exemplary cases both domestically and internationally, the research formulates spatial and planning resilience strategies for primary and secondary schools to cope with perturbations. These strategies encompass creating an overall layout that integrates harmoniously with nature, promoting organic growth in the planning structure, fostering ecological balance in the landscape system, and enabling dynamic adaptation in architectural spaces. By cultivating the capacity for "resistance-adaptation-transformation," these approaches support sustainable development within the school space. The ultimate goal of this project is to establish a cohesive and harmonious layout that advances the sustainable development of primary and secondary schools while contributing to the overall resilience of urban areas.

Keywords: complex disruption, primary and secondary schools, spatial resilience, sustainable development

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Authors: Yang Ye, Hongfei Qiu, Yaqi Li

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The planning and construction of traditional cities are oriented by cars, which leads to the problems of insufficient urban public space, fragmentation, and low utilization efficiency. With the development of driverless technology, the urban structure will change from the traditional single-core grid structure to the multi-core model. In terms of traffic organization, with the release of land for traffic facilities, public space will become more continuous and integrated with traffic space. In the context of driverless technology, urban public reconstruction is characterized by modularization and high efficiency, and its planning and layout features accord with points (service facilities), lines (smart lines), surfaces (activity centers). The public space of driverless urban roads will provide diversified urban public facilities and services. The intensive urban layout makes the commercial public space realize the functions of central activities and style display, respectively, in the interior (building atrium) and the exterior (building periphery). In addition to recreation function, urban green space can also utilize underground parking space to realize efficient dispatching of shared cars. The roads inside the residential community will be integrated into the urban landscape, providing conditions for the community public activity space with changing time sequence and improving the efficiency of space utilization. The intervention of driverless technology will change the thinking of traditional urban construction and turn it into a human-oriented one. As a result, urban public space will be richer, more connected, more efficient, and the urban space justice will be optimized. By summarizing the frontier research, this paper discusses the impact of unmanned driving on cities, especially urban public space, which is beneficial for landscape architects to cope with the future development and changes of the industry and provides a reference for the related research and practice.

Keywords: driverless, urban public space, construction strategy, urban design

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Authors: L. Torchane

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This study is devoted to defining the optimal conditions for the nitriding of pure iron at atmospheric pressure by using NH3-Ar-C3H8 gas mixtures. After studying the mechanisms of phase formation and mass transfer at the gas-solid interface, a mathematical model is developed in order to predict the nitrogen transfer rate in the solid, the ε-carbonitride layer growth rate and the nitrogen and carbon concentration profiles. In order to validate the model and to show its possibilities, it is compared with thermogravimetric experiments, analyses and metallurgical observations (X-ray diffraction, optical microscopy and electron microprobe analysis). Results obtained allow us to demonstrate the sound correlation between the experimental results and the theoretical predictions.

Keywords: gaseous nitrocarburizing, kinetic model, diffusion, layer growth kinetic

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Authors: J. Marx, D. Smazna, R. Adelung, B. Fiedler

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Aerographite is a 3D interconnected carbon foam. Its tetrapodal morphology is based on the zinc oxide (ZnO) template structure, which is replicated in the chemical vapour deposition (CVD) into a hollow carbon structure. This replication process is analyzed in ex-situ studies via interrupted synthesis and the observation of the reaction progress by using scanning electron (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Raman spectroscopy techniques. Based on the epitaxial growth process, with a layer-by-layer growth behaviour of the wall thickness or number of layers and the catalytical graphitization of the deposited amorphous carbon into graphitic carbon by zinc, a growth model is created. The properties of aerographite, such as the electrical conductivity is dependent on the graphitization and number of layer (wall thickness). Wall thicknesses between 3 nm and 22 nm are achieved by a controlled stepwise reduction of the synthesis time on the basis of the developed growth model, and by a further thermal treatment at 1800 °C the graphitization of the presented carbon foam is modified. The variation of the wall thickness leads to an optimum defect density (ID/IG ratio) and the graphitization to an improvement in the electrical conductivity. Furthermore, a metallic conducting behaviour of untreated and 1800 °C treated aerographite can be observed. Due to these structural and defective modifications, a fundamental structural-property equation for the description of their influences on the electrical conductivity is developed.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, electron microscopy (SEM/TEM), graphitization, wall thickness

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Authors: Md. Qamruzzaman, Wei Jianguo

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Over the decade, it is observed that financial development, through financial innovation, not only accelerated development of efficient and effective financial system but also act as a catalyst in the economic development process. In this study, we try to explore insight about how financial innovation causes economic growth in Bangladesh by using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the period of 1990-2014. Test of Cointegration confirms the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation and economic growth. For investigating directional causality, we apply Granger causality test and estimation explore that long-run growth will be affected by capital flow from non-bank financial institutions and inflation in the economy but changes of growth rate do not have any impact on Capital flow in the economy and level of inflation in long-run. Whereas, growth and Market capitalization, as well as market capitalization and capital flow, confirm feedback hypothesis. Variance decomposition suggests that any innovation in the financial sector can cause GDP variation fluctuation in both long run and short run. Financial innovation promotes efficiency and cost in financial transactions in the financial system, can boost economic development process. The study proposed two policy recommendations for further development. First, innovation friendly financial policy should formulate to encourage adaption and diffusion of financial innovation in the financial system. Second, operation of financial market and capital market should be regulated with implementation of rules and regulation to create conducive environment.

Keywords: financial innovation, economic growth, GDP, financial institution, VECM

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Authors: C. Mekala, Indumathi M. Nambi

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Nitrogen pollution in groundwater arising from wastewater and fertilizer application through vadose zone is a major problem and it causes a prime risk to groundwater based drinking water supplies. Nitrogenous compounds namely ammonium, nitrate and nitrite fate and transport in soil subsurface were studied experimentally. The major process like sorption, leaching, biotransformation involving microbial growth kinetics, and biological clogging due to biomass growth were assessed and modeled with advection-dispersion reaction equations for ammonium, nitrate and acetate in a saturated, heterogeneous soil medium. The transport process was coupled with freundlich sorption and monod inhibition kinetics for immobile bacteria and permeability reduction due to biomass growth will be verified and validated with the numerical model. This proposed mathematical model will be very helpful in the development of a management model for a sustainable and safe wastewater reuse strategies such as irrigation and groundwater recharge.

Keywords: nitrogen species transport, transformation, biological clogging, biokinetic parameters, contaminant transport model, saturated soil

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Authors: Rene Valdiviezo-Issa

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In this paper, we use Mexico’s Households Income and Expenditures (ENIGH) survey to explain the behaviour that the urban-rural expenditure gap has had since Mexico’s incorporation to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994 and we compare it with the latest available survey, which took place in 2014. We use real trimestral expenditure per capita (RTEPC) as the measure of welfare. We use quantile regressions and a quantile regression decomposition to describe the gap between urban and rural distributions of log RTEPC. We discover that the decrease in the difference between the urban and rural distributions of log RTEPC, or inequality, is motivated because of a deprivation of the urban areas, in very specific characteristics, rather than an improvement of the urban areas. When using the decomposition we observe that the gap is primarily brought about because differences in returns to covariates between the urban and rural areas.

Keywords: quantile regression, urban-rural inequality, inequality in Mexico, income decompositon

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Authors: K. M. Kim, S. J. Lee, D. S. Oh, Sadohara Satoru

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The climate change poses a serious challenge to urban sustainability. To alleviate the environmental risk, urban planning has been concentrated on climate adaptation and mitigation, and the sustainable urban model, smart city, has been suggested. However, with regard to sustainable smart city development, a majority of researchers have focused mainly on the aspect of adaptation, which causes the lack of the approaches for mitigation. Therefore, the objective was to identify the planning elements of smart city with integrative reviews about mitigation and adaptation. Moreover, the concepts of smart cities in Sweden, Japan, and Korea were analyzed to find out the country-specific characteristics and strategies for achieving smart city.

Keywords: sustainable urban planning, climate change, mitigating and adaptation, smart city

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Authors: Alae El Fahsi

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This study explores the ‘Tajawob’ app's role in urban development, demonstrating how mobile applications can empower citizens and facilitate urban planning. Tajawob serves as a digital platform for community feedback, engagement, and participatory governance, addressing urban challenges through innovative tech solutions. This research synthesizes data from a variety of sources, including user feedback, engagement metrics, and interviews with city officials, to assess the app’s impact on citizen participation in urban development in Morocco. By integrating advanced data analytics and user experience design, Tajawob has bridged the communication gap between citizens and government officials, fostering a more collaborative and transparent urban planning process. The findings reveal a significant increase in civic engagement, with users actively contributing to urban management decisions, thereby enhancing the responsiveness and inclusivity of urban governance. Challenges such as digital literacy, infrastructure limitations, and privacy concerns are also discussed, providing a comprehensive overview of the obstacles and opportunities presented by mobile app-based citizen engagement platforms. The study concludes with strategic recommendations for scaling the Tajawob model to other contexts, emphasizing the importance of adaptive technology solutions in meeting the evolving needs of urban populations. This research contributes to the burgeoning field of smart city innovations, offering key insights into the role of digital tools in facilitating more democratic and participatory urban environments.

Keywords: smart cities, digital governance, urban planning, strategic design

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Authors: Fatih Tarlak

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Predictive microbiology can be considered as an important field in food microbiology in which it uses predictive models to describe the microbial growth in different food products. Predictive models estimate the growth of microorganisms quickly, efficiently, and in a cost-effective way as compared to traditional methods of enumeration, which are long-lasting, expensive, and time-consuming. The mathematical models used in predictive microbiology are mainly categorised as primary and secondary models. The primary models are the mathematical equations that define the growth data as a function of time under a constant environmental condition. The secondary models describe the effects of environmental factors, such as temperature, pH, and water activity (aw) on the parameters of the primary models, including the maximum specific growth rate and lag phase duration, which are the most critical growth kinetic parameters. The combination of primary and secondary models provides valuable information to set limits for the quantitative detection of the microbial spoilage and assess product shelf-life.

Keywords: shelf-life, growth model, predictive microbiology, simulation

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Authors: Nony Rahadiva

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The development of housing in urban areas can not be separated from the high rate of population growth from both natural population growth and population growth due to migration. The development is bounded by urban land area so that construction of flats become a development priority. Quality of residential flats are influenced by the patterns of behavior of its inhabitants. The frequency of contact between the occupants become one of the effects of good social relations, but harmful activity can degrade the environment, especially in flats. One of the social relationships that can be seen on the flats development is the residents in Kutobedah flat built in Malang city. Problems that occur in that place is unfavorable flat management due to social activities such as daily activities and also the neighboring activities of apartment dwellers who tend not to pay attention to the environment. Based on these problems we can do a study on social interaction in Kutobedah flat and its influence on the management of flat facilities and infrastructures. This research was carried out by submitting a questionnaire to the residents of the apartment based social activities , operations and maintenance of the flats. By using a weighted analysis, we can find that social interaction tenants is high, but the level of infrastructure and facilities management of the tenants is low so it is needed to counsel the residents how to use and maintain the infrastructure properly.

Keywords: activities, flat, infrastructure management, social interaction

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Authors: R. Simutis, V. Galvanauskas, D. Levisauskas, J. Repsyte, V. Grincas

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This paper deals with advanced state estimation algorithms for estimation of biomass concentration and specific growth rate in a typical fed-batch biotechnological process. This biotechnological process was represented by a nonlinear mass-balance based process model. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Particle Filter (PF) was used to estimate the unmeasured state variables from oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and base consumption (BC) measurements. To obtain more general results, a simplified process model was involved in EKF and PF estimation algorithms. This model doesn’t require any special growth kinetic equations and could be applied for state estimation in various bioprocesses. The focus of this investigation was concentrated on the comparison of the estimation quality of the EKF and PF estimators by applying different measurement noises. The simulation results show that Particle Filter algorithm requires significantly more computation time for state estimation but gives lower estimation errors both for biomass concentration and specific growth rate. Also the tuning procedure for Particle Filter is simpler than for EKF. Consequently, Particle Filter should be preferred in real applications, especially for monitoring of industrial bioprocesses where the simplified implementation procedures are always desirable.

Keywords: biomass concentration, extended Kalman filter, particle filter, state estimation, specific growth rate

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Authors: Isha Sharawat, R. P. Dahiya, T. R. Sreekrishnan

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One of the environmental challenges in India is urban wastewater management as regulations and infrastructural development has not kept pace with the urbanization and growing population. The quality of life of people is also improving with the rapid growth of the gross domestic product. This has contributed to the enhancement in the per capita water requirement and consumption. More domestic water consumption generates more wastewater. The scarcity of potable water is making the situation quite serious, and water supply has to be regulated in most parts of the country during summer. This requires elaborate and concerted efforts to efficiently manage the water resources and supply systems. In this article, a system dynamics modelling approach is used for estimating the water demand and wastewater generation in a district headquarter city of North India. Projections are made till the year 2035. System dynamics is a software tool used for formulation of policies. On the basis of the estimates, policy scenarios are developed for sustainable development of water resources in conformity with the growing population. Mitigation option curtailing the water demand and wastewater generation include population stabilization, water reuse and recycle and water pricing. The model is validated quantitatively, and sensitivity analysis tests are carried out to examine the robustness of the model.

Keywords: system dynamics, wastewater, water pricing, water recycle

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Authors: Dai Zhimei, Hua Chen

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The exploration of urban spatial evolution is an important part of urban development research. Therefore, the evolutionary modern Yangzhou urban spatial texture was taken as the research object, and Spatial Syntax was used as the main research tool, this paper explored Yangzhou spatial evolution law and its driving factors from the urban street network scale, district scale and street scale. The study has concluded that at the urban scale, Yangzhou urban spatial evolution is the result of a variety of causes, including physical and geographical condition, policy and planning factors, and traffic conditions, and the evolution of space also has an impact on social, economic, environmental and cultural factors. At the district and street scales, changes in space will have a profound influence on the history of the city and the activities of people. At the end of the article, the matters needing attention during the evolution of urban space were summarized.

Keywords: block, space syntax and methodology, street, urban space, Yangzhou

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Authors: Julio Jesus Salazar, Manuel Andres Jesus De Lama

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There are very few models that serve to analyze the use of water in the socio-economic process. On the supply side, the joint use of groundwater has been considered in addition to the simple limits on the availability of surface water. In addition, we have worked on waterlogging and the effects on water quality (mainly salinity). In this paper, a 'complex' water economy is examined; one in which demands grow differentially not only within but also between sectors, and one in which there are limited opportunities to increase consumptive use. In particular, high-value growth, the growth of the production of irrigated crops of high value within the basins of the case study, together with the rapidly growing urban areas, provides a rich context to examine the general problem of water management at the basin level. At the same time, the long-term aridity of nature has made the eco-environment in the basins located on the coast of Peru very vulnerable, and the exploitation and immediate use of water resources have further deteriorated the situation. The presented methodology is the optimization with embedded simulation. The wide basin simulation of flow and water balances and crop growth are embedded with the optimization of water allocation, reservoir operation, and irrigation scheduling. The modeling framework is developed from a network of river basins that includes multiple nodes of origin (reservoirs, aquifers, water courses, etc.) and multiple demand sites along the river, including places of consumptive use for agricultural, municipal and industrial, and uses of running water on the coast of Peru. The economic benefits associated with water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including water rights, based on the production and benefit functions of water use in the urban agricultural and industrial sectors. This work represents a new effort to analyze the use of water at the regional level and to evaluate the modernization of the integrated management of water resources and socio-economic territorial development in Peru. It will also allow the establishment of policies to improve the process of implementation of the integrated management and development of water resources. The input-output analysis is essential to present a theory about the production process, which is based on a particular type of production function. Also, this work presents the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) version of the economic model for water resource policy analysis, which was specifically designed for analyzing large-scale water management. As to the platform for CGE simulation, GEMPACK, a flexible system for solving CGE models, is used for formulating and solving CGE model through the percentage-change approach. GEMPACK automates the process of translating the model specification into a model solution program.

Keywords: water economy, simulation, modeling, integration

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Authors: M. Shahab Uddin, Pennung Warnitchai

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Currently more than half of the world’s populations are living in cities, and the number and sizes of cities are growing faster than ever. Cities rely on the effective functioning of complex and interdependent critical infrastructures networks to provide public services, enhance the quality of life, and save the community from hazards and disasters. In contrast, complex connectivity and interdependency among the urban critical infrastructures bring management challenges and make the urban system prone to the domino effect. Unplanned rapid growth, increased connectivity, and interdependency among the infrastructures, resource scarcity, and many other socio-political factors are affecting the typical state of an urban system and making it susceptible to numerous sorts of diversion. In addition to internal vulnerabilities, urban systems are consistently facing external threats from natural and manmade hazards. Cities are not just complex, interdependent system, but also makeup hubs of the economy, politics, culture, education, etc. For survival and sustainability, complex urban systems in the current world need to manage their vulnerabilities and hazardous incidents more wisely and more interactively. Coordinated management in such systems makes for huge potential when it comes to absorbing negative effects in case some of its components were to function improperly. On the other hand, ineffective management during a similar situation of overall disorder from hazards devastation may make the system more fragile and push the system to an ultimate collapse. Following the quantum, the current research hypothesizes that a hazardous event starts its journey as an emergency, and the system’s internal vulnerability and response capacity determine its destination. Connectivity and interdependency among the urban critical infrastructures during this stage may transform its vulnerabilities into dynamic damaging force. An emergency may turn into a disaster in the absence of effective management; similarly, mismanagement or lack of management may lead the situation towards a catastrophe. Situation awareness and factual decision-making is the key to win a battle. The current research proposed a contextual decision support system for an urban critical infrastructure system while integrating three different models: 1) Damage cascade model which demonstrates damage propagation among the infrastructures through their connectivity and interdependency, 2) Restoration model, a dynamic restoration process of individual infrastructure, which is based on facility damage state and overall disruptions in surrounding support environment, and 3) Optimization model that ensures optimized utilization and distribution of available resources in and among the facilities. All three models are tightly connected, mutually interdependent, and together can assess the situation and forecast the dynamic outputs of every input. Moreover, this integrated model will hold disaster managers and decision makers responsible when it comes to checking all the alternative decision before any implementation, and support to produce maximum possible outputs from the available limited inputs. This proposed model will not only support to reduce the extent of damage cascade but will ensure priority restoration and optimize resource utilization through adaptive and collaborative management. Complex systems predictably fail but in unpredictable ways. System understanding, situation awareness, and factual decisions may significantly help urban system to survive and sustain.

Keywords: disaster prevention, decision support system, emergency response, urban critical infrastructure system

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Authors: Flavia Magliacani

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The urbanization of the last decades and its resulting urban growth entail problems both for environmental and economic sustainability. From this perspective, sustainable settlement development requires a horizontal decrease in the existing urban structure in order to enhance its greater concentration. Hence, new stratifications of the city fabric and architectural strategies ensuring high-density settlement models are possible solutions. However, although increasing housing density is necessary, it is not sufficient. Guaranteeing the quality of living is, indeed, equally essential. In order to meet this objective, many other factors come to light, namely the relationship between private and public spaces, the proximity to services, the accessibility of public transport, the local lifestyle habits, and the social needs. Therefore, how to safeguard both quality and density in human habitats? The present paper attempts to answer the previous main research question by addressing several sub-questions: Which architectural types meet the dual need for urban density and housing quality? Which project criteria should be taken into consideration by good design practices? What principles are desirable for future planning? The research will analyse different architectural responses adopted in four European cities: Paris, Lion, Rotterdam, and Amsterdam. In particular, it will develop a qualitative and comparative study of two specific architectural solutions which integrate housing density and quality living. On the one hand, the so-called 'self-contained city' model, on the other hand, the French 'Habitat Dense Individualisé' one. The structure of the paper will be as follows: the first part will develop a qualitative evaluation of some case studies, emblematic examples of the two above said architectural models. The second part will focus on the comparison among the chosen case studies. Finally, some conclusions will be drawn. The methodological approach, therefore, combines qualitative and comparative research. Parameters will be defined in order to highlight potential and criticality of each model in light of an interdisciplinary view. In conclusion, the present paper aims at shading light on design approaches which ensure a right balance between density and quality of the urban living in contemporary European cities.

Keywords: density, future design, housing quality, human habitat

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Authors: Ding He, Ping Hu

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This article presents a “networking approach” as an alternative to the “layering model” in the issue of the historic urban landscape [HUL], based on research conducted in the historic city of Jingdezhen, the center of the porcelain industry in China. This study points out that the existing HUL concept, which can be traced back to the fundamental conceptual divisions set forth by western science, tends to analyze the various elements of urban heritage (composed of hybrid natural-cultural elements) by layers and ignore the nuanced connections and interweaving structure of various elements. Instead, the networking analysis approach can respond to the challenges of complex heritage networks and to the difficulties that are often faced when modern schemes of looking and thinking of landscape in the Eurocentric heritage model encounters local knowledge of Chinese settlement. The fieldwork in this paper examines the local language regarding place names and everyday uses of urban spaces, thereby highlighting heritage systems grounded in local life and indigenous knowledge. In the context of Chinese “Fengshui”, this paper demonstrates the local knowledge of nature and local intelligence of settlement location and design. This paper suggests that industrial elements (kilns, molding rooms, piers, etc.) and spiritual elements (temples for ceramic saints or water gods) are located in their intimate natural networks. Furthermore, the functional, spiritual, and natural elements are perceived as a whole and evolve as an interactive system. This paper proposes a local and cognitive approach in heritage, which was initially developed in European Landscape Convention and historic landscape characterization projects, and yet seeks a more tentative and nuanced model based on urban ethnography in a Chinese city.

Keywords: Chinese city, historic urban landscape, heritage conservation, network

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Authors: Zhang Cong, Cai Runlin, Jia Fengjiao

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The evolution of the urban agglomeration spatial structure requires strong support of the inter-city traffic system. And the inter-city traffic system can not only meet the demand of the urban agglomeration transportation but also guide the economic development. To correctly understand the relationship between inter-city traffic planning and urban agglomeration can help the urban agglomeration coordinated developing with the inter-city traffic system. The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most representative urban agglomerations in China with strong economic vitality, high city levels, diversified urban space form, and improved transport infrastructure. With the promotion of industrial division in the Yangtze River Delta and the regional travel facilitation brought by inter-city traffic, the urban agglomeration is characterized by highly increasing of inter-city transportation demand, the urbanization of regional traffic, adjacent regional transportation links breaking administrative boundaries, the networked channels and so on. Therefore, the development of inter-city traffic system presents new trends and challenges. This paper studies the interactions between inter-city traffic system and regional economic growth, regional factor flow, and regional spatial structure evolution in the Yangtze River Delta from two dimensions of time and space. On this basis, the adaptability of inter-city traffic development mode and urban agglomeration space structure is analyzed. First of all, the coordination between urban agglomeration planning and inter-city traffic planning is judged from the planning level. Secondly, the coordination between inter-city traffic elements and industries and population distributions is judged from the perspective of space. Finally, the coordination of the cross-regional planning and construction of inter-city traffic system is judged. The conclusions can provide an empirical reference for intercity traffic planning in Yangtze River Delta region and other urban agglomerations, and it is also of great significance to optimize the allocation of urban agglomerations and the overall operational efficiency.

Keywords: evolution, interaction, inter-city traffic system, spatial structure

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Authors: Mohammed AL-Hasani

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The Pandemic COVID-19 altered the daily habits and affected the functional performance of the cities after this crisis leaving remarkable impacts on many metropolises worldwide. It is so obvious that having more densification in the city leads to more threats altering this main approach that was called for achieving sustainable development. The main goal to achieve resiliency in the cities, especially in forcing risks, is to deal with a planning system that is able to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover from the impacts that had been affected. Many Cities in London, Wuhan, New York, and others worldwide carried different planning approaches and varied in reaction to safeguard the impacts of the pandemic. The cities globally varied from the radiant pattern predicted by Le Corbusier, or having multi urban centers more like the approach of Frank Lloyd Wright’s Broadacre City, or having linear growth or gridiron expansion that was common by Doxiadis, compact pattern, and many other hygiene patterns. These urban patterns shape the spatial distribution and Identify both open and natural spaces with gentrified and gentrifying areas. This crisis paid attention to reassess many planning approaches and examine the existing urban patterns focusing more on the aim of continuity and resiliency in managing the crises within the rapid transformation and the power of market forces. According to that, this paper hypothesized that those urban planning patterns determine the method of reaction in assuring quarantine for the inhabitance and the performance of public services and need to be updated through carrying out an innovative urban management system and adopt further resilience patterns in prospective urban planning approaches. This paper investigates the adaptivity and resiliency of variant urban planning patterns regarding selected cities worldwide that affected by COVID-19 and their role in applying certain management strategies in controlling the pandemic spread, finding out the main potentials that should be included in prospective planning approaches. The examination encompasses the spatial arrangement, blocks definition, plots arrangement, and urban space typologies. This paper aims to investigate the urban patterns to deliberate also the debate between densification as one of the more sustainable planning approaches and disaggregation tendency that was followed after the pandemic by restructuring and managing its application according to the assessment of the spatial distribution and urban patterns. The biggest long-term threat to dense cities proves the need to shift to online working and telecommuting, creating a mixture between using cyber and urban spaces to remobilize the city. Reassessing spatial design and growth, open spaces, urban population density, and public awareness are the main solutions that should be carried out to face the outbreak in our current cities that should be managed from global to tertiary levels and could develop criteria for designing the prospective cities

Keywords: COVID-19, densification, resiliency, urban patterns

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Authors: Shorena Tsiklauri, Avtandil Sulaberidze, Nino Gomelauri

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In the years followed independence, an economic crisis and some conflicts led to the displacement of many people inside Georgia. The growing poverty, unemployment, low income and its unequal distribution limited access to basic social service have had a clear direct impact on Georgian population dynamics and its age-sex structure. Factors influencing the changing population age structure and urbanization include mortality, fertility, migration and expansion of urban. In this paper presents the main factors of changing the distribution by urban and rural areas. How different are the urban and rural age and sex structures? Does Georgia have the same age-sex structure among their urban and rural populations since 1950s?

Keywords: age and sex structure of population, georgia, migration, urban-rural population

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Authors: Ceylan Sozer, Ece Ceylan Baba

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The reforms and changes that began with industrialization in cities and continued with globalization in 1980’s, created many changes in urban environments. City centers which are desolated due to industrialization, began to get crowded with globalization and became the heart of technology, commerce and social activities. While the immediate and intense alterations are planned around rigorous visions in developed countries, several urban areas where the processes were underestimated and not taken precaution faced with irrevocable situations. When the effects of the globalization in the cities are examined, it is seen that there are some anticipatory system plans in the cities about the future problems. Several cities such as New York, London and Tokyo have planned to resolve probable future problems in a systematic scheme to decrease possible side effects during globalization. The decisions in urban planning and their applications are the main points in terms of sustainability and livability in such mega-cities. This article examines the effects of globalization on urban planning through 3 mega cities and the applications. When the applications of urban plannings of the three mega-cities are investigated, it is seen that the city plans are generated under light of past experiences and predictions of a certain future. In urban planning, past and present experiences of a city should have been examined and then future projections could be predicted together with current world dynamics by a systematic way. In this study, methods used in urban planning will be discussed and ‘Anticipatory System’ model will be explained and relations with global-urban planning will be discussed. The concept of ‘anticipation’ is a phenomenon that means creating foresights and predictions about the future by combining past, present and future within an action plan. The main distinctive feature that separates anticipatory systems from other systems is the combination of past, present and future and concluding with an act. Urban plans that consist of various parameters and interactions together are identified as ‘live’ and they have systematic integrities. Urban planning with an anticipatory system might be alive and can foresight some ‘side effects’ in design processes. After globalization, cities became more complex and should be designed within an anticipatory system model. These cities can be more livable and can have sustainable urban conditions for today and future.In this study, urban planning of Istanbul city is going to be analyzed with comparisons of New York, Tokyo and London city plans in terms of anticipatory system models. The lack of a system in İstanbul and its side effects will be discussed. When past and present actions in urban planning are approached through an anticipatory system, it can give more accurate and sustainable results in the future.

Keywords: globalization, urban planning, anticipatory system, New York, London, Tokyo, Istanbul

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