Search results for: seasonal forecasting

Authors: Laura Amato, Paolo Mulatti, Fabrizio Montarsi, Matteo Mazzucato, Laura Gagliazzo, Michele Brichese, Manlio Palei, Gioia Capelli, Lebana Bonfanti

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West Nile virus (WNV) re-emerged in north-eastern Italy in 2008, after ten years from its first appearance in Tuscany. In 2009, a national surveillance programme was implemented, and re-modulated in north-eastern Italy in 2011. Hereby, we present the results of surveillance activities in 2008-2016 in the north-eastern Italian regions, with inferences on WNV epidemiological trend in the area. The re-modulated surveillance programmes aimed at early detecting WNV seasonal reactivation by searching IgM antibodies in horses. In 2013, the surveillance plans were further modified including a risk-based approach. Spatial analysis techniques, including Bernoulli space-time scan-statistics, were applied to the results of 2010–2012 surveillance on mosquitoes, equines, and humans to identify areas where WNV reactivation was more likely to occur. From 2008 to 2016, residential horses tested positive for anti-WNV antibodies on a yearly basis (503 cases), also in areas where WNV circulation was not detected in mosquito populations. Surveillance activities detected 26 syndromic cases in horses, 102 infected mosquito pools and WNV in 18 dead wild birds. Human cases were also recurrently detected in the study area during the surveillance period (68 cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease). The recurrent identification of WNV in animals, mosquitoes, and humans indicates the virus has likely become endemic in the area. In 2016, findings of WNV positives in horses or mosquitoes were included as triggers for enhancing screening activities in humans. The evolution of the epidemiological situation prompts for continuous and accurate surveillance measures. The results of the 2013-2016 surveillance indicate that the risk-based approach was effective in early detecting seasonal reactivation of WNV, key factor of the integrated surveillance strategy in endemic areas.

Keywords: arboviruses, horses, Italy, surveillance, west nile virus, zoonoses

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Authors: Banu Hatice Gürcüm, Pınar Arslan, Mahmut Yalçın

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Fashion designers create lots of dresses, suits, shoes, and other clothing and accessories, which are purchased every year by consumers. Fashion trends, sketches of designs, accessories affect the apparel goods, but colors make the finishing touches to an outfit. In all fields of apparel men's, women's, and children's wear, including casual wear, suits, sportswear, formal wear, outerwear, maternity, and intimate apparel, color sells. Thus, specialization in color in apparel is a basic concern each season. The perception of color is the key to sales for every sector in textile business. Mechanism of color perception, cognition in brain and color emotion are unique subjects, which scientists have been investigating for many years. The parameters of color may not be corresponding to visual scales since human emotions induced by color are completely subjective. However, with a very few exception each manufacturer concern their top selling colors for each season through seasonal sales reports of apparel companies. This paper examines sensory and instrumental methods for quantifying color of fabrics and investigates the relationship between fabric color and sale numbers. 5 top selling colors for each season from 10 leading apparel companies in the same segment are taken. The compilation is based according to the sales of the companies for 5 to 10 years. The research’s main concern is the corelation with the magnitude of seasonal color selling figures and the CIE chromaticity coordinates. The colors are chosen from the globally accepted Pantone Textile Color System and the three-dimentional measurement system CIE L*a*b* (CIELAB) is used, L* representing the degree of lightness of color, a* the degree of color ranging from magenta to green, and b* the degree of color ranging from blue to yellow. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of relating color perceptance to a laboratory instrument yielding measurements in the CIELAB system. Our approach is to obtain a total of a hundred reference fabrics to be measured on a laboratory spectrophotometer calibrated to the CIELAB color system. Relationships between the CIE tristimulus (X, Y, Z) and CIELAB (L*, a*, b*) are examined and are reported herein.

Keywords: CIELAB, CIE tristimulus, color preference, fashion

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Authors: Dawd Ahmed, Venkatesh Uddameri

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Agriculture in Ethiopia is the main economic sector influenced by agricultural drought. A simultaneous assessment of drought trends using multiple drought indicators is useful for drought planning and management. Intra-season and seasonal drought trends in Ethiopia were studied using a suite of drought indicators. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Z-index for long-rainy, dry, and short-rainy seasons are used to identify drought-causing mechanisms. The Statistical software package R version 3.5.2 was used for data extraction and data analyses. Trend analysis indicated shifts in late-season long-rainy season precipitation into dry in the southwest and south-central portions of Ethiopia. Droughts during the dry season (October–January) were largely temperature controlled. Short-term temperature-controlled hydrologic processes exacerbated rainfall deficits during the short rainy season (February–May) and highlight the importance of temperature- and hydrology-induced soil dryness on the production of short-season crops such as tef. Droughts during the long-rainy season (June–September) were largely driven by precipitation declines arising from the narrowing of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Increased dryness during long-rainy season had severe consequences on the production of corn and sorghum. PDSI was an aggressive indicator of seasonal droughts suggesting the low natural resilience to combat the effects of slow-acting, moisture-depleting hydrologic processes. The lack of irrigation systems in the nation limits the ability to combat droughts and improve agricultural resilience. There is an urgent need to monitor soil moisture (a key agro-hydrologic variable) to better quantify the impacts of meteorological droughts on agricultural systems in Ethiopia.

Keywords: autocorrelation, climate change, droughts, Ethiopia, food security, palmer z-index, PDSI, SPEI, SPI, trend analysis

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Authors: Burçin Saltık, Levent Genç

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In this study, it was aimed to determine a route for identification of rice cultivation areas within Thrace and Marmara regions of Turkey using remote sensing and GIS. Landsat 8 (OLI-TIRS) imageries acquired in production season of 2013 with 181/32 Path/Row number were used. Four different seasonal images were generated utilizing original bands and different transformation techniques. All images were classified individually using supervised classification techniques and Land Use Land Cover Maps (LULC) were generated with 8 classes. Areas (ha, %) of each classes were calculated. In addition, district-based rice distribution maps were developed and results of these maps were compared with Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkSTAT; TSI)’s actual rice cultivation area records. Accuracy assessments were conducted, and most accurate map was selected depending on accuracy assessment and coherency with TSI results. Additionally, rice areas on over 4° slope values were considered as mis-classified pixels and they eliminated using slope map and GIS tools. Finally, randomized rice zones were selected to obtain maximum-minimum value ranges of each date (May, June, July, August, September images separately) NDVI, LSWI, and LST images to test whether they may be used for rice area determination via raster calculator tool of ArcGIS. The most accurate classification for rice determination was obtained from seasonal LSWI LULC map, and considering TSI data and accuracy assessment results and mis-classified pixels were eliminated from this map. According to results, 83151.5 ha of rice areas exist within study area. However, this result is higher than TSI records with an area of 12702.3 ha. Use of maximum-minimum range of rice area NDVI, LSWI, and LST was tested in Meric district. It was seen that using the value ranges obtained from July imagery, gave the closest results to TSI records, and the difference was only 206.4 ha. This difference is normal due to relatively low resolution of images. Thus, employment of images with higher spectral, spatial, temporal and radiometric resolutions may provide more reliable results.

Keywords: landsat 8 (OLI-TIRS), LST, LSWI, LULC, NDVI, rice

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Authors: Siddhartha Khare, Suyash Khare

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Phenology, a crucial discipline in ecology, offers insights into the seasonal dynamics of organisms within natural ecosystems and the underlying environmental triggers. Leveraging the potent capabilities of digital repeat photography, PhenoCams capture invaluable data on the phenology of crops, plants, and trees. These cameras yield digital imagery in Red Green Blue (RGB) color channels, and some advanced systems even incorporate Near Infrared (NIR) bands. This study presents compelling case studies employing PhenoCam technology to unravel the phenology of black spruce trees. Through the analysis of RGB color channels, a range of essential color metrics including red chromatic coordinate (RCC), green chromatic coordinate (GCC), blue chromatic coordinate (BCC), vegetation contrast index (VCI), and excess green index (ExGI) are derived. These metrics illuminate variations in canopy color across seasons, shedding light on bud and leaf development. This, in turn, facilitates a deeper understanding of phenological events and aids in delineating the growth periods of trees and plants. The initial phase of this study addresses critical questions surrounding the fidelity of continuous canopy greenness records in representing bud developmental phases. Additionally, it discerns which color-based index most accurately tracks the seasonal variations in tree phenology within evergreen forest ecosystems. The subsequent section of this study delves into the transition dates of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) phenology. This is achieved through a fortnightly comparative analysis of the MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI). By employing PhenoCam technology and leveraging advanced color metrics, this study significantly advances our comprehension of black spruce tree phenology, offering valuable insights for ecological research and management.

Keywords: phenology, remote sensing, phenocam, color metrics, NDVI, GCC

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Authors: M. A. Hernández-Ceballos, M. Marín-Ferrer, G. Cinelli, L. De Felice, T. Tollefsen, E. Nweke, P. V. Tognoli, S. Vanzo, M. De Cort

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This study analyses the latitudinal impact of the spatial and temporal distribution on the cosmogenic isotope 7Be in surface air along Europe. The long-term database of the 6 sampling sites (Ivalo, Helsinki, Berlin, Freiburg, Sevilla and La Laguna), that regularly provide data to the Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring (REM) network managed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra, were used. The selection of the stations was performed attending to different factors, such as 1) heterogeneity in terms of latitude and altitude, and 2) long database coverage. The combination of these two parameters ensures a high degree of representativeness of the results. In the later, the temporal coverage varies between stations, being used in the present study sampling stations with a database more or less continuously from 1984 to 2011. The mean values of 7Be activity concentration presented a spatial distribution value ranging from 2.0 ± 0.9 mBq/m3 (Ivalo, north) to 4.8 ± 1.5 mBq/m3 (La Laguna, south). An increasing gradient with latitude was observed from the north to the south, 0.06 mBq/m3. However, there was no correlation with altitude, since all stations are sited within the atmospheric boundary layer. The analyses of the data indicated a dynamic range of 7Be activity for solar cycle and phase (maximum or minimum), having been observed different impact on stations according to their location. The results indicated a significant seasonal behavior, with the maximum concentrations occurring in the summer and minimum in the winter, although with differences in the values reached and in the month registered. Due to the large heterogeneity in the temporal pattern with which the individual radionuclide analyses were performed in each station, the 7Be monthly index was calculated to normalize the measurements and perform the direct comparison of monthly evolution among stations. Different intensity and evolution of the mean monthly index were observed. The knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of this natural radionuclide in the atmosphere is a key parameter for modeling studies of atmospheric processes, which are important phenomena to be taken into account in the case of a nuclear accident.

Keywords: Berilium-7, latitudinal impact in Europe, seasonal and monthly variability, solar cycle

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: Amina Akhtar, Rory O'Connor

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Introduction: There remains significant morbidity and mortality in young pedestrians hit by motor vehicles, even in the era of pedestrian crossings and speed limits. The aim of this study was to compare incidence and injury severity of motor vehicle-related pedestrian trauma according to time of day and season in a young population, based on the supposition that injuries would be more prevalent during dusk and dawn and during autumn and winter. Methods: Data was retrieved for patients between 10-25 years old from the National Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database who had been involved as pedestrians in motor vehicle accidents between 2015-2020. The incidence of injuries, their severity (using the Injury Severity Score [ISS]), hospital transfer time, and mortality were analysed according to the hours of daylight, darkness, and season. Results: The study identified a seasonal pattern, showing that autumn was the predominant season and led to 34.9% of injuries, with a further 25.4% in winter in comparison to spring and summer, with 21.4% and 18.3% of injuries, respectively. However, visibility alone was not a sufficient factor as 49.5% of injuries occurred during the time of darkness, while 50.5% occurred during daylight. Importantly, the greatest injury rate (number of injuries/hour) occurred between 1500-1630, correlating to school pick-up times. A further significant relationship between injury severity score (ISS) and daylight was demonstrated (p-value= 0.0124), with moderate injuries (ISS 9-14) occurring most commonly during the day (72.7%) and more severe injuries (ISS>15) occurred during the night (55.8%). Conclusion: We have identified a relationship between time of day and the frequency and severity of pedestrian trauma in young people. In addition, particular time groupings correspond to the greatest injury rate, suggesting that reduced visibility coupled with school pick-up times may play a significant role. This could be addressed through a targeted public health approach to implementing change. We recommend targeted public health measures to improve road safety that focus on these times and that increase the visibility of children combined with education for drivers.

Keywords: major trauma, paediatric trauma, road traffic accidents, diurnal pattern

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Authors: Elena Collino, Dario A. Ronzio, Goffredo Decimi, Maurizio Riva

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The rapid increase of renewable energy in Italy is led by wind and solar installations. The 2017 Italian energy strategy foresees a further development of these sustainable technologies, especially solar. This fact has resulted in new opportunities, challenges, and different problems to deal with. The growth of renewables allows to meet the European requirements regarding energy and environmental policy, but these types of sources are difficult to manage because they are intermittent and non-programmable. Operationally, these characteristics can lead to instability on the voltage profile and increasing uncertainty on energy reserve scheduling. The increasing renewable production must be considered with more and more attention especially by the Transmission System Operator (TSO). The TSO, in fact, every day provides orders on energy dispatch, once the market outcome has been determined, on extended areas, defined mainly on the basis of power transmission limitations. In Italy, six market zone are defined: Northern-Italy, Central-Northern Italy, Central-Southern Italy, Southern Italy, Sardinia, and Sicily. An accurate hourly renewable power forecasting for the day-ahead on these extended areas brings an improvement both in terms of dispatching and reserve management. In this study, an operational forecasting tool of the hourly solar output for the six Italian market zones is presented, and the performance is analysed. The implementation is carried out by means of a numerical weather prediction model, coupled with a statistical post-processing in order to derive the power forecast on the basis of the meteorological projection. The weather forecast is obtained from the limited area model RAMS on the Italian territory, initialized with IFS-ECMWF boundary conditions. The post-processing calculates the solar power production with the Analog Ensemble technique (AN). This statistical approach forecasts the production using a probability distribution of the measured production registered in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar to the forecasted one. The similarity is evaluated for the components of the solar radiation: global (GHI), diffuse (DIF) and direct normal (DNI) irradiation, together with the corresponding azimuth and zenith solar angles. These are, in fact, the main factors that affect the solar production. Considering that the AN performance is strictly related to the length and quality of the historical data a training period of more than one year has been used. The training set is made by historical Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts at 12 UTC for the GHI, DIF and DNI variables over the Italian territory together with corresponding hourly measured production for each of the six zones. The AN technique makes it possible to estimate the aggregate solar production in the area, without information about the technologic characteristics of the all solar parks present in each area. Besides, this information is often only partially available. Every day, the hourly solar power forecast for the six Italian market zones is made publicly available through a website.

Keywords: analog ensemble, electricity market, PV forecast, solar energy

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Authors: Mohamed Emran, Giovanni Pardini, Maria Gispert, Mohamed Rashad

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Land use and abandonment in semi-arid degraded ecosystems may cause regressive dynamics in vegetation cover affecting organic matter contents, soil nutrients and structural stability, thus reducing soil resistance to erosion. Mediterranean areas are generally subjected to climatic fluctuations, which modify soil conditions and hydrological processes, such as runoff and water infiltration within the upper soil horizons. Low erosion rates occur in very fragile and shallow soils with minor clay content progressively decrease organic carbon C and nitrogen N pools in the upper soil horizons. Seven soils were selected representing variant context of land use and abandonment at the Cap de Creus Peninsula, Catalonia, NE Spain, from recent cultivated vines and olive groves, mid abandoned forests standing under cork and pine trees, pasture to late abandoned Cistus and Erica scrubs. The aim of this work was to study the effect of changes in land use and abandonment on the depletion of soil organic carbon and nitrogen transported by runoff water in shallow soils after natural rainfall events during two years with different rainfall patterns (1st year with low rainfall and 2nd year with high rainfall) by i) monitoring the most significant soil erosion parameters at recorded rainfall events, ii) studying the most relevant soil physical and chemical characteristics on seasonal basis and iii) analysing the seasonal trends of depleted carbon and nitrogen and their interaction with soil surface compaction parameters. Significant seasonal variability was observed in the relevant soil physical and chemical parameters and soil erosion parameters in all soils to establish their evolution under land use and abandonment during two years of different rainfall patterns (214 and 487 mm per year), giving important indications on soil response to rainfall impacts. Erosion rates decreased significantly with the increasing of soil C and N under low and high rainfall. In cultivated soils, C and N depletion increased by 144% and 115%, respectively by 13% increase in erosion rates during the 1st year with respect to the 2nd year. Depleted C and N were proportionally higher in soils under vines and olive with vulnerable soil structure and low soil resilience leading to degradation, altering nutrients cycles and causing adverse impact on environmental quality. Statistical analysis underlined that, during the 1st year, soil surface was less effective in preserving stocks of organic resources leading to higher susceptibility to erosion with consequent C and N depletion. During the 2nd year, higher organic reserve and water storage occurred despite the increasing of C and N loss with an effective contribution from soil surface compaction parameters. The overall estimation during the two years indicated clear differences among soils under vines, olive, cork and pines, suggesting on the one hand, that current cultivation practices are inappropriate and that reforestation with pines may delay the achievement of better soil conditions. On the other hand, the natural succession of vegetation under Cistus, pasture and Erica suggests the recovery of good soil conditions.

Keywords: land abandonment, land use, nutrient's depletion, soil erosion

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Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

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Authors: R. Premasiri, W. A. H. A. Abeygunasekara, S. M. Hewavidana, T. Jananthan, R. M. S. Madawala, K. Vaheeshan

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Forecasting the potential for disastrous events such as landslides has become one of the major necessities in the current world. Most of all, the landslides occurred in Sri Lanka are found to be triggered mostly by intense rainfall events. The study area is the landslide near Gerandiella waterfall which is located by the 41st kilometer post on Nuwara Eliya-Gampala main road in Kotmale Division in Sri Lanka. The landslide endangers the entire Kotmale town beneath the slope. Geographic Information System (GIS) platform is very much useful when it comes to the need of emulating the real-world processes. The models are used in a wide array of applications ranging from simple evaluations to the levels of forecast future events. This project investigates the possibility of developing a dynamic model to map the spatial distribution of the slope stability. The model incorporates several theoretical models including the infinite slope model, Green Ampt infiltration model and Perched ground water flow model. A series of rainfall values can be fed to the model as the main input to simulate the dynamics of slope stability. Hydrological model developed using GIS is used to quantify the perched water table height, which is one of the most critical parameters affecting the slope stability. Infinite slope stability model is used to quantify the degree of slope stability in terms of factor of safety. DEM was built with the use of digitized contour data. Stratigraphy was modeled in Surfer using borehole data and resistivity images. Data available from rainfall gauges and piezometers were used in calibrating the model. During the calibration, the parameters were adjusted until a good fit between the simulated ground water levels and the piezometer readings was obtained. This model equipped with the predicted rainfall values can be used to forecast of the slope dynamics of the area of interest. Therefore it can be investigated the slope stability of rainfall induced landslides by adjusting temporal dimensions.

Keywords: factor of safety, geographic information system, hydrological model, slope stability

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Authors: Abdul Halim Abdul Razik, Ali Elkamel, Leonardo Simon

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Wheat straw is one of the alternative feedstocks that may be utilized for bioethanol production especially when sustainability criteria are the major concerns. To increase market competitiveness, optimal supply chain plays an important role since wheat straw is a seasonal agricultural residue. In designing the supply chain optimization model, economic profitability of the thermochemical and biochemical conversion routes options were considered. It was found that torrefied pelletization with gasification route to be the most profitable option to produce bioethanol from the lignocellulosic source of wheat straw.

Keywords: bio-ethanol, optimization, supply chain, wheat straw

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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Authors: Benjamin Beltzung, Marie Pelé, Julien P. Renoult, Cédric Sueur

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To this day, it is not known if drawing is specifically human behavior or if this behavior finds its origins in ancestor species. An interesting window to enlighten this question is to analyze the drawing behavior in genetically close to human species, such as non-human primate species. A good candidate for this approach is the orangutan, who shares 97% of our genes and exhibits multiple human-like behaviors. Focusing on figurative aspects may not be suitable for orangutans’ drawings, which may appear as scribbles but may have meaning. A manual feature selection would lead to an anthropocentric bias, as the features selected by humans may not match with those relevant for orangutans. In the present study, we used deep learning to analyze the drawings of a female orangutan named Molly († in 2011), who has produced 1,299 drawings in her last five years as part of a behavioral enrichment program at the Tama Zoo in Japan. We investigate multiple ways to decipher Molly’s drawings. First, we demonstrate the existence of differences between seasons by training a deep learning model to classify Molly’s drawings according to the seasons. Then, to understand and interpret these seasonal differences, we analyze how the information spreads within the network, from shallow to deep layers, where early layers encode simple local features and deep layers encode more complex and global information. More precisely, we investigate the impact of feature complexity on classification accuracy through features extraction fed to a Support Vector Machine. Last, we leverage style transfer to dissociate features associated with drawing style from those describing the representational content and analyze the relative importance of these two types of features in explaining seasonal variation. Content features were relevant for the classification, showing the presence of meaning in these non-figurative drawings and the ability of deep learning to decipher these differences. The style of the drawings was also relevant, as style features encoded enough information to have a classification better than random. The accuracy of style features was higher for deeper layers, demonstrating and highlighting the variation of style between seasons in Molly’s drawings. Through this study, we demonstrate how deep learning can help at finding meanings in non-figurative drawings and interpret these differences.

Keywords: cognition, deep learning, drawing behavior, interpretability

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Authors: Jiun-Horng Tsai, Shi-Jie, Nieh

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Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) has become an important issue all over the world over the last decade. Annual mean PM₂.₅ concentration has been over the ambient air quality standard of PM₂.₅ (annual average concentration as 15μg/m³) which adapted by Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA). TEPA, therefore, has developed a number of air pollution control measures to improve the ambient concentration by reducing the emissions of primary fine particulate matter and the precursors of secondary PM₂.₅. This study investigated the potential improvement of ambient PM₂.₅ concentration by the TEPA program and the other scenario for further emission reduction on various sources. Four scenarios had been evaluated in this study, including a basic case and three reduction scenarios (A to C). The ambient PM₂.₅ concentration was evaluated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality modelling system (CMAQ) ver. 4.7.1 along with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 3.4.1. The grid resolutions in the modelling work are 81 km × 81 km for domain 1 (covers East Asia), 27 km × 27 km for domain 2 (covers Southeast China and Taiwan), and 9 km × 9 km for domain 3 (covers Taiwan). The result of PM₂.₅ concentration simulation in different regions of Taiwan shows that the annual average concentration of basic case is 24.9 μg/m³, and are 22.6, 18.8, and 11.3 μg/m³, respectively, for scenarios A to C. The annual average concentration of PM₂.₅ would be reduced by 9-55 % for those control scenarios. The result of scenario C (the emissions of precursors reduce to allowance levels) could improve effectively the airborne PM₂.₅ concentration to attain the air quality standard. According to the results of unit precursor reduction contribution, the allowance emissions of PM₂.₅, SOₓ, and NOₓ are 16.8, 39, and 62 thousand tons per year, respectively. In the Kao-Ping air basin, the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > NOₓ > SOₓ, whereas the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > SOₓ > NOₓ in others area. The result indicates that the target pollutants that need to be reduced in different air basin are different, and the control measures need to be adapted to local conditions.

Keywords: airborne PM₂.₅, community multi-scale air quality modelling system, control measures, weather research and forecasting model

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Authors: Emily Kislik, Gabriel Mantilla Saltos, Gladys Torres, Mercy Borbor-Córdova

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The Galápagos Marine Reserve (GMR) is an internationally-recognized region of consistent upwelling events, high productivity, and rich biodiversity. Despite its high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll condition, the archipelago has experienced phytoplankton blooms, especially in the western section between Isabela and Fernandina Islands. However, little is known about how climate variability will affect future phytoplankton standing stock in the Galápagos, and no consistent protocols currently exist to quantify phytoplankton biomass, identify species, or monitor for potential harmful algal blooms (HABs) within the archipelago. This analysis investigates physical, chemical, and biological oceanic variables that contribute to algal blooms within the GMR, using 4 km Aqua MODIS satellite imagery and 0.125-degree wind stress data from January 2003 to December 2016. Furthermore, this study analyzes chlorophyll-a concentrations at varying spatial scales— within the greater archipelago, as well as within five smaller bioregions based on species biodiversity in the GMR. Seasonal and interannual trend analyses, correlations, and hotspot identification were performed. Results demonstrate that chlorophyll-a is expressed in two seasons throughout the year in the GMR, most frequently in September and March, with a notable hotspot in the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Interannual chlorophyll-a trend analyses revealed highest peaks in 2003, 2007, 2013, and 2016, and variables that correlate highly with chlorophyll-a include surface temperature and particulate organic carbon. This study recommends future in situ sampling locations for phytoplankton monitoring, including the Elizabeth Bay bioregion. Conclusions from this study contribute to the knowledge of oceanic drivers that catalyze primary productivity and consequently affect species biodiversity within the GMR. Additionally, this research can inform policy and decision-making strategies for species conservation and management within bioregions of the Galápagos.

Keywords: bioregions, ecological monitoring, phytoplankton, remote sensing

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Authors: M. Trousselard, D. Steiler, C. Drogou, P. van-Beers, G. Lamour, S. N. Crosnier, O. Bouilland, P. Dubost, M. Chennaoui, D. Léger

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According to published data, undersea navigation for long periods (nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, SSBN) constitutes an extreme environment in which crews are subjected to multiple stresses, including the absence of natural light, illuminance below 1,000 lux, and watch schedules that do not respect natural chronobiological rhythms, for a period of 60-80 days. These stresses seem clearly detrimental to the submariners’ sleep, with consequences for their affective (seasonal affective disorder-like) and cognitive functioning. In the long term, there are abundant publications regarding the consequences of sleep disruption for the occurrence of organic cardiovascular, metabolic, immunological or malignant diseases. It seems essential to propose countermeasures for the duration of the patrol in order to reduce the negative physiological effects on the sleep and mood of submariners. Light therapy, the preferred treatment for dysfunctions of the internal biological clock and the resulting seasonal depression, cannot be used without data to assist knowledge of submariners’ chronobiology (melatonin secretion curve) during patrols, given the unusual characteristics of their working environment. These data are not available in the literature. The aim of this project was to assess, in the course of two studies, the benefits of two environmental techniques for managing chronobiological stress: techniques for optimizing potential (TOP; study 1)3, an existing programme to help in the psychophysiological regulation of stress and sleep in the armed forces, and dawn and dusk simulators (DDS, study 2). For each experiment, psychological, physiological (sleep) or biological (melatonin secretion) data were collected on D20 and D50 of patrol. In the first experiment, we studied sleep and depressive distress in 19 submariners in an operational setting on board an SSBM during a first patrol, and assessed the impact of TOP on the quality of sleep and depressive distress in these same submariners over the course of a second patrol. The submariners were trained in TOP between the two patrols for a 2-month period, at a rate of 1 h of training per week, and assigned daily informal exercises. Results show moderate disruptions in sleep pattern and duration associated with the intensity of depressive distress. The use of TOP during the following patrol improved sleep and depressive mood only in submariners who regularly practiced the techniques. In light of these limited benefits, we assessed, in a second experiment, the benefits of DDS on chronobiology (daily secretion of melatonin) and depressive distress. Ninety submariners were randomly allocated to two groups, group 1 using DDS daily, and group 2 constituting the control group. Although the placebo effect was not controlled, results showed a beneficial effect on chronobiology and depressive mood for submariners with a morning chronotype. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate the difficulty of practicing the tools of psychophysiological management in real life. They raise the question of the subjects’ autonomy with respect to using aids that involve regular practice. It seems important to study autonomy in future studies, as a cognitive resource resulting from the interaction between internal positive resources and “coping” resources, to gain a better understanding of compliance problems.

Keywords: chronobiology, light therapy, seasonal affective disorder, sleep, stress, stress management, submarine

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Authors: Manqhai Kraai, Adrian M. Shrader, Peter F. Scogings

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For animals living in herds, competition between group members increases as herd size increases. The intensity of this competition is likely greater across poor quality landscapes and during the dry season. In contrast to wild herbivores, herd size in domestic livestock is determined by their owners. This then raises the question, how do domestic livestock, like goats, reduce competition for food within these defined herds? To explore this question, large-scale foraging behaviour of both small (12 to 28 individuals) and large (42 to 83 individuals) herds of free-ranging goats were recorded in Tugela Ferry, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study was conducted on three different landscapes that varied in both food quality and availability, during the wet and dry seasons of 2013-2014. The goats were housed in kraals overnight and let out in the mornings to forage unattended. Thus, foraging decisions were made by the goats and not by herders. The large-scale foraging behaviours focussed on included, (i) total distance travelled by goats while foraging, (ii) distance travelled before starting to feed, (iii) travel speed, and (iv) feeding duration. This was done using Garmin Foretrex 401 GPS devices harnessed to two goats per herd. Irrespective of season, there was no difference in the total distance travelled by the different sized herds across the different quality landscapes. However, both small and large herds started feeding farther from the kraal in the dry compared to the wet season. Despite this, there was no significant seasonal difference in total amount of time the herds spent feeding across the different landscapes. Finally, both small and large herds increased their travel speed across all the landscapes in the dry season, but large herds travelled faster than small herds. This increase was likely to maximise the time that large herds could spend feeding in good areas. Ultimately, these results indicate that both small and large herds were affected by declines in food quality and quantity during the dry season. However, as large herds made greater behavioural adjustments compared to smaller herds (i.e., feeding farther away from the kraal and travelling faster), it appeared that they were more affected by the seasonal increases in intra-herd competition.

Keywords: distance, feeding duration, food availability, food quality, travel speed

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Muhammad Arslan, Michael A. Kaminski, Bassam S. Tawabini, Fabrizio Frontalini

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We conducted a survey of living benthic foraminifera in a relatively unpolluted site of Bahrain in the Arabian Gulf, with the aim of determining the seasonal variability in their populations, as well as various environmental parameters that affect their distribution. The maximum standing crop was observed during winter, with highest population of rotaliids, followed by a peak in miliolids. The highest population is attributed to an increasing number juveniles observed along the depth transect. A strong correlation between sediment grain size and the foraminiferal population indicates that juveniles were most abundant on coarser sandy substrate and less abundant on fine substrate. In spring, the total living population decreased, and lowest values are observed in the summer. The population started to increase again in the autumn with highest juveniles/adult ratios. Moreover, results of relative abundance and species consistency show that Ammonia is found to be consistent from the shallowest to the deepest station, whereas miliolids start appearing in the deeper stations. The average numbers of Peneroplis and Elphidium also increases along the depth transect. Environmental characterization reveals that although the site is subjected to eutrophication caused by nitrates and sulfates, pollution caused by hydrocarbons and heavy metals is not significant. The assessment of 63 heavy metals showed that none of the metals had concentrations that exceed internationally accepted norms [the devised level of Effect Range-Low], with the exception of strontium. The lack of a significant environmental effect of heavy metals is confirmed by a Foraminiferal Deformities Index value of less than 2%. Likewise, no hydrocarbon contamination was detected in the water or sediment samples. Lastly, observations of cytoplasmic streaming and pseudopodial activity in Petri dishes suggest that the foraminiferal population is not stressed. We conclude that the site in Bahrain is not yet adversely affected by human development, and therefore can provide baseline information for future comparison and assessment of foraminiferal assemblages in contaminated zones of the Arabian Gulf.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, benthic foraminifera, standing crop, Western Bahrain

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon, Mintak Han, Youngjun Kim

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Due to the rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT), a substantial transformation is currently happening in the society. As the range of intelligent technologies and services is continuously expanding, ‘things’ are becoming capable of communicating one another and even with people. However, such “Internet of Things” has the technical weakness so that a great amount of such information transferred in real-time may be widely exposed to the threat of security. User’s personal data are a typical example which is faced with a serious security threat. The threats of security will be diversified and arose more frequently because next generation of unfamiliar technology develops. Moreover, as the society is becoming increasingly complex, security vulnerability will be increased as well. In the existing literature, a considerable number of private and public reports that forecast future society have been published as a precedent step of the selection of future technology and the establishment of strategies for competitiveness. Although there are previous studies that forecast security technology, they have focused only on technical issues and overlooked the interrelationships between security technology and social factors are. Therefore, investigations of security threats in the future and security technology that is able to protect people from various threats are required. In response, this study aims to derive potential security threats associated with the development of technology and to explore the security technology that can protect against them. To do this, first of all, private and public reports that forecast future and online documents from technology-related communities are collected. By analyzing the data, future issues are extracted and categorized in terms of STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, and Politics), as well as security. Second, the components of potential security threats are developed based on classified future issues. Then, points that the security threats may occur –for example, mobile payment system based on a finger scan technology– are identified. Lastly, alternatives that prevent potential security threats are proposed by matching security threats with points and investigating related security technologies from patent data. Proposed approach can identify the ICT-related latent security menaces and provide the guidelines in the ‘problem – alternative’ form by linking the threat point with security technologies.

Keywords: future society, information and communication technology, security technology, technology forecasting

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Authors: Timothy Kayode Samson, Adedoyin Isola Lawal

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The past five years have shown a sharp increase in public interest in the crypto market, with its market capitalization growing from $100 billion in June 2017 to $2158.42 billion on April 5, 2022. Despite the outrageous nature of the volatility of cryptocurrencies, the use of skewed error innovation distributions in modelling the volatility behaviour of these digital currencies has not been given much research attention. Hence, this study models the volatility of 5 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Binance coin, and USD Coin) using four variants of GARCH models (GJR-GARCH, sGARCH, EGARCH, and APARCH) estimated using three skewed error innovation distributions (skewed normal, skewed student- t and skewed generalized error innovation distributions). Daily closing prices of these currencies were obtained from Yahoo Finance website. Finding reveals that the Binance coin reported higher mean returns compared to other digital currencies, while the skewness indicates that the Binance coin, Tether, and USD coin increased more than they decreased in values within the period of study. For both Bitcoin and Ethereum, negative skewness was obtained, meaning that within the period of study, the returns of these currencies decreased more than they increased in value. Returns from these cryptocurrencies were found to be stationary but not normality distributed with evidence of the ARCH effect. The skewness parameters in all best forecasting models were all significant (p<.05), justifying of use of skewed error innovation distributions with a fatter tail than normal, Student-t, and generalized error innovation distributions. For Binance coin, EGARCH-sstd outperformed other volatility models, while for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and USD coin, the best forecasting models were EGARCH-sstd, APARCH-sstd, EGARCH-sged, and GJR-GARCH-sstd, respectively. This suggests the superiority of skewed Student t- distribution and skewed generalized error distribution over the skewed normal distribution.

Keywords: skewed generalized error distribution, skewed normal distribution, skewed student t- distribution, APARCH, EGARCH, sGARCH, GJR-GARCH

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Authors: Pinel Sebastien, Bourrin François, De Madron Du Rieu Xavier, Ludwig Wolfgang, Arnau Pedro

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Heavy precipitation constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Research has investigated the relationship between the states of the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere with the precipitation for short temporal windows. However, at a larger temporal scale, the precursor signals of heavy rainfall in the sea and atmosphere have drawn little attention. Moreover, despite ongoing improvements in numerical weather prediction, the medium-term forecasting of rainfall events remains a difficult task. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of early-spring environmental parameters on the following autumnal heavy precipitations. Hence, we develop a machine learning model to predict extreme autumnal rainfall with a 6-month lead time over the Spanish Catalan coastal area, based on i) the sea pattern (main current-LPC and Sea Surface Temperature-SST) at the mesoscale scale, ii) 4 European weather teleconnection patterns (NAO, WeMo, SCAND, MO) at synoptic scale, and iii) the hydrological regime of the main local river (Rhône River). The accuracy of the developed model classifier is evaluated via statistical analysis based on classification accuracy, logarithmic and confusion matrix by comparing with rainfall estimates from rain gauges and satellite observations (CHIRPS-2.0). Sensitivity tests are carried out by changing the model configuration, such as sea SST, sea LPC, river regime, and synoptic atmosphere configuration. The sensitivity analysis suggests a negligible influence from the hydrological regime, unlike SST, LPC, and specific teleconnection weather patterns. At last, this study illustrates how public datasets can be integrated into a machine learning model for heavy rainfall prediction and can interest local policies for management purposes.

Keywords: extreme hazards, sensitivity analysis, heavy rainfall, machine learning, sea-atmosphere modeling, precipitation forecasting

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Authors: C. Lalitha, R. Sayee, D. Apoorva

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Reproductive failure or infertility may be due to several factors that are not limited to one sex. It remains a common problem causing significant psychological distress to those affected individuals and who are increasingly seeking medical advice. Male infertility means inability to induce conception in normal woman within a year. The etiological factors associated with male infertility are anatomical, developmental, seminal, hormonal, immunological and environmental factors. The paper was aimed to highlight the environmental factors and its association to male infertility and seasonality of birth and its influence. The data was collected from the 75 male patients referred with infertility for karyotyping and counseling. Their age ranged from 21 to 45 years. It is opined that certain occupations are preferentially associated with male infertility.

Keywords: environmental, occupational, seasonal, male infertility

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Siamak Feizi, Gunvor Baardvik

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Soil erosion has special consequences for landfills that are more serious than those found at conventional construction sites. Different potential heads between two sides of a landfill and the subsequent movement of water through pores within the soil body could trigger the soil erosion and construction instability. Such a condition was encountered in a landfill project in the southern part of Norway. To check the risk of internal erosion due to changes in the groundwater level (because of seasonal flooding in the river), a series of numerical simulations by means of Geo-Seep software was conducted. Output of this study provides a total picture of the landfill stability, possibilities of erosions, and necessary measures to prevent or reduce the risk for the landfill operator.

Keywords: erosion, seepage, landfill, stability

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Authors: Remzi Saltoglu, Nazmia Humaira, Gokhan Inalhan

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During aircraft maintenance scheduling, operator calculates the budget of the maintenance. Usually, this calculation includes only the costs that are directly related to the maintenance process such as cost of labor, material, and equipment. In some cases, overhead cost is also included. However, in some of those, downtime cost is neglected claiming that grounding is a natural fact of maintenance; therefore, it is not considered as part of the analytical decision-making process. Based on the normalized data, we introduce downtime cost with its monetary value and add its seasonal character. We envision that the rest of the model, which works together with the downtime cost, could be checked with the real life cases, through the review of MRO cost and airline spending in the particular and scheduled maintenance events.

Keywords: aircraft maintenance, downtime, downtime cost, maintenance cost

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Authors: Juan C. Martínez-Alfaro, Aracely Zúñiga, Fernando Ruíz-Zarate

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In recent years, the Katahdin sheep breeds have been one of the breeds with greater acceptance by sheep farmers in southwestern Mexico. The Hair Sheep breeds from tropical latitudes (16° to 21° North Latitude) show low estrus activity from January to May. By contrast, these breeds of sheep exhibit high estrus activity from August to December. However, the reproductive management of Hair Sheep crossbred is very limited, independently of the socioeconomic levels of sheep farmers. Thus, in crossbred of Hair Sheep, occurrence of lambing is greater in autumn (84%) than spring (16%). In this sense, the aim of this study was to determine the lambing in Crossbred of Katahdin sheep during different seasons of the year. The Hypothesis was that in crossbred of Katahdin sheep, the lambing period has a behavior seasonal in the Southwestern Mexico. The study design consisted in evaluating the lambing proportion in one herds of Katahdin ewes crossbred during one year (October 1st, 2015 to October 1st, 2016). The study was realized in a farm located in the municipality of Jiquipilas, in the State of Chiapas, Mexico (16° North Latitude). A total of 40 female sheep homogeneous in terms of physical condition, age and physiological state were selected; and they were fed in grazing continuous, mainly with Africa star grass (Cynodon lemfuensis) and they are provided with water and mineral salts ad libitum; during the dry season, the ewes were supplemented with a diet of maize and sorghum, and the reproductive management was continuous mating. The lambing proportion was analyzed by chi-squared test, using SAS statistical software. The proportion of Katahdin ewes crossbred that lambed during the study period was high (100%; 40/40), the prolificacy was 1.42 (lamb/lambing). The proportion of lambing was higher (P<0.05) in autumn (67.5%; 27/40), than winter, spring and summer (32.5%; 13/40; 0%; 0/40; 0%; 0/40; respectively). The proportion of lambing was greater (P<0.05) in November (50%; 20/40), compared to October, December and January (2.5%; 1/40; 27.5%; 11/40; 20%; 8/40, respectively). The results are consistent with the fact that in the Hair Sheep Breeds, the lambing appears behave seasonally. The most important finding is that the lambing period in the crossbred of Katahdin Sheep is similar to the crossbred of Hair Sheep in tropical regions of Mexico. Therefore, the period of greater sexual activity occurs in the spring season. In conclusion, the period of lambing in crossbred of Katahdin ewes appears behave seasonally. Further researches to assess the ovarian activity in different breeds of Hair Ewes are under assessment.

Keywords: Katahdin ewes, lambing, prolificacy, seasonality

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Yun Chen, David Penton, Fazlul Karim, Santosh Aryal, Shahriar Wahid, Peter Taylor, Susan M. Cuddy

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Droughts have severely affected Afghanistan over the last four decades, leading to critical food shortages where two-thirds of the country’s population are in a food crisis. Long years of conflict have lowered the country’s ability to deal with hazards such as drought, which can rapidly escalate into disasters. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of droughts is needed to be able to respond effectively to disasters and plan for future occurrences. This study used Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal scales to map the spatiotemporal change dynamics of drought characteristics (distribution, frequency, duration, and severity) in Afghanistan. SPEI indices were mapped for river basins, disaggregated into 189 sub-catchments, using monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration derived from temperature station observations from 1980 to 2017. The results show these multi-dimensional drought characteristics vary along different years, change among sub-catchments, and differ across temporal scales. During the 38 years, the driest decade and period are the 2000s and 1999–2022, respectively. The 2000–01 water year is the driest, with the whole country experiencing ‘severe’ to ‘extreme’ drought, more than 53% (87 sub-catchments) suffering the worst drought in history, and about 58% (94 sub-catchments) having ‘very frequent’ drought (7 to 8 months) or ‘extremely frequent’ drought (9 to 10 months). The estimated seasonal duration and severity present significant variations across the study area and throughout the study period. The nation also suffered from recurring droughts with varying length and intensity in 2004, 2006, 2008, and, most recently, 2011. There is a trend towards increasing drought with longer duration and higher severity extending all over sub-catchments from southeast to north and central regions. These datasets and maps help to fill the knowledge gap on detailed sub-catchment scale meteorological drought characteristics in Afghanistan. The study findings improve our understanding of the influences of climate change on drought dynamics and can guide catchment planning for reliable adaptation to and mitigation against future droughts.

Keywords: SPEI, precipitation, evapotranspiration, climate extremes

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Authors: Lourenco Camnahas, Eileen Willis, Greg Fisher, Jessie Gunson, Pascale Dettwiller, Charlene Thornton

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Stock-out of pharmaceuticals is a common issue at all level of health services in Timor-Leste, a small post-conflict country. This lead to the research questions: what are the current methods used to quantify pharmaceutical supplies; what factors contribute to the on-going pharmaceutical stock-out? The study examined factors that influence the pharmaceutical supply chain system. Methodology: Privett and Goncalvez dependency model has been adopted for the design of the qualitative interviews. The model examines pharmaceutical supply chain management at three management levels: management of individual pharmaceutical items, health facilities, and health systems. The interviews were conducted in order to collect information on inventory management, logistics management information system (LMIS) and the provision of pharmaceuticals. Andersen' behavioural model for healthcare utilization also informed the interview schedule, specifically factors linked to environment (healthcare system and external environment) and the population (enabling factors). Forty health professionals (bureaucrats, clinicians) and six senior officers from a United Nations Agency, a global multilateral agency and a local non-governmental organization were interviewed on their perceptions of factors (healthcare system/supply chain and wider environment) impacting on stock out. Additionally, policy documents for the entire healthcare system, along with population data were collected. Findings: An analysis using Pozzebon’s critical interpretation identified a range of difficulties within the system from poor coordination to failure to adhere to policy guidelines along with major difficulties with inventory management, quantification, forecasting, and budgetary constraints. Weak logistics management information system, lack of capacity in inventory management, monitoring and supervision are additional organizational factors that also contributed to the issue. There were various methods of quantification of pharmaceuticals applied in the government sector, and non-governmental organizations. Lack of reliable data is one of the major problems in the pharmaceutical provision. Global Fund has the best quantification methods fed by consumption data and malaria cases. There are other issues that worsen stock-out: political intervention, work ethic and basic infrastructure such as unreliable internet connectivity. Major issues impacting on pharmaceutical quantification have been identified. However, current data collection identified limitations within the Andersen model; specifically, a failure to take account of predictors in the healthcare system and the environment (culture/politics/social. The next step is to (a) compare models used by three non-governmental agencies with the government model; (b) to run the Andersen explanatory model for pharmaceutical expenditure for 2 to 5 drug items used by these three development partners in order to see how it correlates with the present model in terms of quantification and forecasting the needs; (c) to repeat objectives (a) and (b) using the government model; (d) to draw a conclusion about the strength.

Keywords: inventory management, pharmaceutical forecasting and quantification, pharmaceutical stock-out, pharmaceutical supply chain management

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