Search results for: generally regular
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3511

Search results for: generally regular

301 Spatial Conceptualization in French and Italian Speakers: A Contrastive Approach in the Context of the Linguistic Relativity Theory

Authors: Camilla Simoncelli

Abstract:

The connection between language and cognition has been one of the main interests of linguistics from several years. According to the Sapir-Whorf Linguistic Relativity Theory, the way we perceive reality depends on the language we speak which in turn has a central role in the human cognition. This paper is in line with this research work with the aim of analyzing how language structures reflect on our cognitive abilities even in the description of space, which is generally considered as a human natural and universal domain. The main objective is to identify the differences in the encoding of spatial inclusion relationships in French and Italian speakers to make evidence that a significant variation exists at various levels even in two similar systems. Starting from the constitution a corpora, the first step of the study has been to establish the relevant complex prepositions marking an inclusion relation in French and Italian: au centre de, au cœur de, au milieu de, au sein de, à l'intérieur de and the opposition entre/parmi in French; al centro di, al cuore di, nel mezzo di, in seno a, all'interno di and the fra/tra contrast in Italian. These prepositions had been classified on the base of the type of Noun following them (e.g. mass nouns, concrete nouns, abstract nouns, body-parts noun, etc.) following the Collostructional Analysis of lexemes with the purpose of analyzing the preferred construction of each preposition comparing the relations construed. Comparing the Italian and the French results it has been possible to define the degree of representativeness of each target Noun for the chosen preposition studied. Lexicostatistics and Statistical Association Measures showed the values of attraction or repulsion between lexemes and a given preposition, highlighting which words are over-represented or under-represented in a specific context compared to the expected results. For instance, a Noun as Dibattiti has a negative value for the Italian Al cuore di (-1,91), but it has a strong positive representativeness for the corresponding French Au cœur de (+677,76). The value, positive or negative, is the result of a hypergeometric distribution law which displays the current use of some relevant nouns in relations of spatial inclusion by French and Italian speakers. Differences on the kind of location conceptualization denote syntactic and semantic constraints based on spatial features as well as on linguistic peculiarity, too. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the domain of spatial relations is basic to human experience and is linked to universally shared perceptual mechanisms which create mental representations depending on the language use. Therefore, linguistic coding strongly correlates with the way spatial distinctions are conceptualized for non-verbal tasks even in close language systems, like Italian and French.

Keywords: cognitive semantics, cross-linguistic variations, locational terms, non-verbal spatial representations

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300 From Talk to Action-Tackling Africa’s Pollution and Climate Change Problem

Authors: Ngabirano Levis

Abstract:

One of Africa’s major environmental challenges remains air pollution. In 2017, UNICEF estimated over 400,000 children in Africa died as a result of indoor pollution, while 350 million children remain exposed to the risks of indoor pollution due to the use of biomass and burning of wood for cooking. Over time, indeed, the major causes of mortality across Africa are shifting from the unsafe water, poor sanitation, and malnutrition to the ambient and household indoor pollution, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain a key factor in this. In addition, studies by the OECD estimated that the economic cost of premature deaths due to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APMP) and Household Air Pollution across Africa in 2013 was about 215 Billion US Dollars and US 232 Billion US Dollars, respectively. This is not only a huge cost for a continent where over 41% of the Sub-Saharan population lives on less than 1.9 US Dollars a day but also makes the people extremely vulnerable to the negative climate change and environmental degradation effects. Such impacts have led to extended droughts, flooding, health complications, and reduced crop yields hence food insecurity. Climate change, therefore, poses a threat to global targets like poverty reduction, health, and famine. Despite efforts towards mitigation, air contributors like carbon dioxide emissions are on a generally upward trajectory across Africa. In Egypt, for instance, emission levels had increased by over 141% in 2010 from the 1990 baseline. Efforts like the climate change adaptation and mitigation financing have also hit obstacles on the continent. The International Community and developed nations stress that Africa still faces challenges of limited human, institutional and financial systems capable of attracting climate funding from these developed economies. By using the qualitative multi-case study method supplemented by interviews of key actors and comprehensive textual analysis of relevant literature, this paper dissects the key emissions and air pollutant sources, their impact on the well-being of the African people, and puts forward suggestions as well as a remedial mechanism to these challenges. The findings reveal that whereas climate change mitigation plans appear comprehensive and good on paper for many African countries like Uganda; the lingering political interference, limited research guided planning, lack of population engagement, irrational resource allocation, and limited system and personnel capacity has largely impeded the realization of the set targets. Recommendations have been put forward to address the above climate change impacts that threaten the food security, health, and livelihoods of the people on the continent.

Keywords: Africa, air pollution, climate change, mitigation, emissions, effective planning, institutional strengthening

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299 Construction and Analysis of Tamazight (Berber) Text Corpus

Authors: Zayd Khayi

Abstract:

This paper deals with the construction and analysis of the Tamazight text corpus. The grammatical structure of the Tamazight remains poorly understood, and a lack of comparative grammar leads to linguistic issues. In order to fill this gap, even though it is small, by constructed the diachronic corpus of the Tamazight language, and elaborated the program tool. In addition, this work is devoted to constructing that tool to analyze the different aspects of the Tamazight, with its different dialects used in the north of Africa, specifically in Morocco. It also focused on three Moroccan dialects: Tamazight, Tarifiyt, and Tachlhit. The Latin version was good choice because of the many sources it has. The corpus is based on the grammatical parameters and features of that language. The text collection contains more than 500 texts that cover a long historical period. It is free, and it will be useful for further investigations. The texts were transformed into an XML-format standardization goal. The corpus counts more than 200,000 words. Based on the linguistic rules and statistical methods, the original user interface and software prototype were developed by combining the technologies of web design and Python. The corpus presents more details and features about how this corpus provides users with the ability to distinguish easily between feminine/masculine nouns and verbs. The interface used has three languages: TMZ, FR, and EN. Selected texts were not initially categorized. This work was done in a manual way. Within corpus linguistics, there is currently no commonly accepted approach to the classification of texts. Texts are distinguished into ten categories. To describe and represent the texts in the corpus, we elaborated the XML structure according to the TEI recommendations. Using the search function may provide us with the types of words we would search for, like feminine/masculine nouns and verbs. Nouns are divided into two parts. The gender in the corpus has two forms. The neutral form of the word corresponds to masculine, while feminine is indicated by a double t-t affix (the prefix t- and the suffix -t), ex: Tarbat (girl), Tamtut (woman), Taxamt (tent), and Tislit (bride). However, there are some words whose feminine form contains only the prefix t- and the suffix –a, ex: Tasa (liver), tawja (family), and tarwa (progenitors). Generally, Tamazight masculine words have prefixes that distinguish them from other words. For instance, 'a', 'u', 'i', ex: Asklu (tree), udi (cheese), ighef (head). Verbs in the corpus are for the first person singular and plural that have suffixes 'agh','ex', 'egh', ex: 'ghrex' (I study), 'fegh' (I go out), 'nadagh' (I call). The program tool permits the following characteristics of this corpus: list of all tokens; list of unique words; lexical diversity; realize different grammatical requests. To conclude, this corpus has only focused on a small group of parts of speech in Tamazight language verbs, nouns. Work is still on the adjectives, prounouns, adverbs and others.

Keywords: Tamazight (Berber) language, corpus linguistic, grammar rules, statistical methods

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298 Activating Psychological Resources of DUI (Drivers under the Influence of Alcohol) Using the Traffic Psychology Intervention (IFT Course), Germany

Authors: Parichehr Sharifi, Konrad Reschke, Hans-Liudger Dienel

Abstract:

Psychological intervention generally targets changes in attitudes and behavior. Working with DUIs is part of traffic psychologists’ work. The primary goal of this field is to reduce the probability of re-conspicuous of the delinquent driver. One of these measurements in Germany is IFT courses for DUI s. The IFT course was designed by the Institute for Therapy Research. Participants are drivers who have fallen several times or once with a blood alcohol concentration of 1.6 per mill and who have completed a medical-psychological assessment (MPU) with the result of the course recommendation. The course covers four sessions of 3.5 hours each (1 hour / 60 m) and in a period of 3 to 4 weeks in the group discussion. This work analyzes interventions for the rehabilitation of DUI (Drunk Drivers offenders) offenders in groups under the aspect of activating psychological resources. From the aspect of sustainability, they should also have long-term consequences for the maintenance of unproblematic driving behavior in terms of the activation of resources. It is also addressing a selected consistency-theory-based intervention effect, activating psychological resources. So far, this has only been considered in the psychotherapeutic field but never in the field of traffic psychology. The methodology of this survey is one qualitative and three quantitative. In four sub-studies, it will be examined which measurements can determine the resources and how traffic psychological interventions can strengthen resources. The results of the studies have the following implications for traffic psychology research and practice: (1) In the field of traffic psychology intervention for the restoration of driving fitness, it can be stated that aspects of resource activation in this work have been investigated for the first time by qualitative and quantitative methods. (2) The resource activation could be confirmed based on the determined results as an effective factor of traffic psychological intervention. (3) Two sub-studies show a range of resources and resource activation options that must be given greater emphasis in traffic psychology interventions: - Social resource activation - improvement of the life skills of participants - Reactivation of existing social support options - Re-experiencing self-esteem, self-assurance, and acceptance of traffic-related behaviors. (4) In revising the IFT-§70 course, as well as other courses on recreating aptitude for DUI, new traffic-specific resource-enabling interventions against alcohol abuse should be developed to further enhance the courses through motivational, cognitive, and behavioral effects of resource activation, Resource-activating interventions can not only be integrated into behavioral group interventions but can also be applied in psychodynamic, psychodynamic (individual psychological) and other contexts of individual traffic psychology. The results are indicative but clearly show that personal resources can be strengthened through traffic psychology interventions. In the research, practice, training, and further education of traffic psychology, the aspect of primary resource activation (Grawe, 1999), therefore, always deserves the greatest attention for the rehabilitation of DUIs and Traffic safety.

Keywords: traffic safety, psychological resources, activating of resources, intervention programs for alcohol offenders, empowerment

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297 Generation and Migration of CO₂ in the Bahi Sandstone Reservoir within the Ennaga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya

Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

Abstract:

This work presents a study of Carbone dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir over the EPSA 120/136 (conc 72). En Naga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin Libya. The Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstone is the result of deposition that occurred between the start of the Cretaceous rifting that formed the area's Horsts, Grabens and Cenomanian marine transgression. Bahi sediments were derived mainly from those Nubian sediments exposed on the structurally higher blocks, transported short distances into newly forming depocenters such as the En Naga Sub-basin and were deposited by continental processes over the Sirte Unconformity (pre-Late Cretaceous surface) Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin within different lithofacies distribution over this sub-base. One of the two lithofacies recognized in the Bahi is a very fine to very coarse, subangular to angular, pebbly and occasionally conglomeratic quartz sandstone, which is commonly described as being compacted but friable. This sandstone may contain pyrite and minor kaolinite. This facies was encountered at 11,042 feet in F1-72 well, and at 9,233 feet in L1-72. Good, reservoir quality sandstones are associated with paleotopographic highs within the sub-basin and around its margins where winnowing and/or deflationary processes occurred. The second Bahi Lithofacies is a thinly bedded sequence dominated by shales and siltstones with subordinate sandstones and carbonates. The sandstones become more abundant with depth. This facies was encountered at 12,580 feet in P1 -72 and at 11,850 feet in G1a -72. This argillaceous sequence is likely the Bahi sandstone's lateral facies equivalent deposited in paleotopographic lows, which received finer-grained material. The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock, which after prolific production tests for the drilled wells makes Bahi sandstones the principal reservoir rocks for CO₂ where large volumes of CO₂ gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136, (conc 72). CO₂ occurs in this area as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex. Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface and are exposed at the surface. Bahi CO₂ prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas of EPSA 120/136 (CONC 72) where there are better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂ productivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves, although there are positive indications that they are very large. Three main structures (Barrut I, En Naga A and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone development. These leads are the most attractive on EPSA 120/136 for the deep potential.

Keywords: En Naga Sub Basin, Al Harouge Al Aswad's Igneous complex, carbon dioxide generation, migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir, lower cretaceous Bahi Sandstone

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296 Generation and Migration of CO₂ in the Bahi Sandstone Reservoir within the Ennaga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya

Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

Abstract:

This work presents a study of carbon dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir over the EPSA 120/136 (conc 72), En Naga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya. The Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstone is the result of deposition that occurred between the start of the Cretaceous rifting that formed the area's Horsts, Grabens, and Cenomanian marine transgression. Bahi sediments were derived mainly from those Nubian sediments exposed on the structurally higher blocks, transported short distances into newly forming depocenters such as the En Naga Sub-basin, and were deposited by continental processes over the Sirte Unconformity (pre-Late Cretaceous surface). Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin within different lithofacies distributed over this sub-base. One of the two lithofacies recognized in the Bahi is a very fine to very coarse, subangular to angular, pebbly, and occasionally conglomeratic quartz sandstone, which is commonly described as being compacted but friable. This sandstone may contain pyrite, minor kaolinite. This facies was encountered at 11,042 feet in F1-72 well and at 9,233 feet in L1-72. Good, reservoir quality sandstones are associated with paleotopographic highs within the sub-basin and around its margins where winnowing and/or deflationary processes occurred. The second Bahi Lithofacies is a thinly bedded sequence dominated by shales and siltstones with subordinate sandstones and carbonates. The sandstones become more abundant with depth. This facies was encountered at 12,580 feet in P1 -72 and at 11,850 feet in G1a -72. This argillaceous sequence is likely the Bahi sandstone's lateral facies equivalent deposited in paleotopographic lows, which received finer grained material. The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock, which after prolific production tests for the drilled wells that makes Bahi sandstones the principal reservoir rocks for CO₂ where large volumes of CO₂ gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136, (conc 72). CO₂ occurs in this area as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex. Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface and are exposed at the surface. Bahi CO₂ prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas of EPSA 120/136 (CONC 72), where there are better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂ prospectivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves, although there are positive indications that they are very large. Three main structures (Barrut I, En Naga A, and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone development. These leads are the most attractive on EPSA 120/136 for the deep potential.

Keywords: En Naga Sub Basin, Al Harouge Al Aswad’s Igneous Complex, carbon dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir, lower cretaceous Bahi sandstone

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295 New Insulation Material for Solar Thermal Collectors

Authors: Nabila Ihaddadene, Razika Ihaddadene, Abdelwahaab Betka

Abstract:

1973 energy crisis (rising oil prices) pushed the world to consider other alternative energy resources to existing conventional energies consisting predominantly of hydrocarbons. Renewable energies such as solar, the wind and geothermal have received renewed interest, especially to preserve nature ( the low-temperature rise of global environmental problems). Solar energy as an available, cheap and environmental friendly alternative source has various applications such as heating, cooling, drying, power generation, etc. In short, there is no life on earth without this enormous nuclear reactor, called the sun. Among available solar collector designs, flat plate collector (FPC) is low-temperature applications (heating water, space heating, etc.) due to its simple design and ease of manufacturing. Flat plate collectors are permanently fixed in position and do not track the sun (non-concentrating collectors). They operate by converting solar radiation into heat and transferring that heat to a working fluid (usually air, water, water plus antifreeze additive) flowing through them. An FPC generally consists of the main following components: glazing, absorber plate of high absorptivity, fluid tubes welded to or can be an integral part of the absorber plate, insulation and container or casing of the above-mentioned components. Insulation is of prime importance in thermal applications. There are three main families of insulation: mineral insulation; vegetal insulation and synthetic organic insulation. The old houses of the inhabitants of North Africa were built of brick made of composite material that is clay and straw. These homes are characterized by their thermal comfort; i.e. the air inside these houses is cool in summer and warm in winter. So, the material composed from clay and straw act as a thermal insulation. In this research document, the polystyrene used as insulation in the ET200 flat plate solar collector is replaced by the cheapest natural material which is clay and straw. Trials were carried out on a solar energy demonstration system (ET 200). This system contains a solar collector, water storage tank, a high power lamp simulating solar energy and a control and command cabinet. In the experimental device, the polystyrene is placed under the absorber plate and in the edges of the casing containing the components of the solar collector. In this work, we have replaced the polystyrene of the edges by the composite material. The use of the clay and straw as insulation instead of the polystyrene increases temperature difference (T2-T1) between the inlet and the outlet of the absorber by 0.9°C; thus increases the useful power transmitted to water in the solar collector. Tank Water is well heated when using the clay and straw as insulation. However, it is less heated when using the polystyrene as insulation. Clay and straw material improves also the performance of the solar collector by 5.77%. Thus, it is recommended to use this cheapest non-polluting material instead of synthetic insulation to improve the performance of the solar collector.

Keywords: clay, insulation material, polystyrene, solar collector, straw

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294 Protecting Human Health under International Investment Law

Authors: Qiang Ren

Abstract:

In the past 20 years, under the high standard of international investment protection, there have been numerous cases of investors ignoring the host country's measures to protect human health. Examples include investment disputes triggered by the Argentine government's measures related to human health, quality, and price of drinking water under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Examples also include Philip Morris v. Australia, in which case the Australian government announced the passing of the Plain Packing of Cigarettes Act to address the threat of smoking to public health in 2010. In order to take advantage of the investment treaty protection between Hong Kong and Australia, Philip Morris Asia acquired Philip Morris Australia in February 2011 and initiated investment arbitration under the treaty before the passage of the Act in July 2011. Philip Morris claimed the Act constitutes indirect expropriation and violation of fair and equitable treatment and claimed 4.16 billion US dollars compensation. Fortunately, the case ended at the admissibility decision stage and did not enter the substantive stage. Generally, even if the host country raises a human health defense, most arbitral tribunals will rule that the host country revoke the corresponding policy and make huge compensation in accordance with the clauses in the bilateral investment treaty to protect the rights of investors. The significant imbalance in the rights and obligations of host states and investors in international investment treaties undermines the ability of host states to act in pursuit of human health and social interests beyond economic interests. This squeeze on the nation's public policy space and disregard for the human health costs of investors' activities raises the need to include human health in investment rulemaking. The current international investment law system that emphasizes investor protection fails to fully reflect the requirements of the host country for the healthy development of human beings and even often brings negative impacts to human health. At a critical moment in the reform of the international investment law system, in order to achieve mutual enhancement of investment returns and human health development, human health should play a greater role in influencing and shaping international investment rules. International investment agreements should not be limited to investment protection tools but should also be part of national development strategies to serve sustainable development and human health. In order to meet the requirements of the new sustainable development goals of the United Nations, human health should be emphasized in the formulation of international investment rules, and efforts should be made to shape a new generation of international investment rules that meet the requirements of human health and sustainable development.

Keywords: human health, international investment law, Philip Morris v. Australia, investor protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
293 Seismic Data Analysis of Intensity, Orientation and Distribution of Fractures in Basement Rocks for Reservoir Characterization

Authors: Mohit Kumar

Abstract:

Natural fractures are classified in two broad categories of joints and faults on the basis of shear movement in the deposited strata. Natural fracture always has high structural relationship with extensional or non-extensional tectonics and sometimes the result is seen in the form of micro cracks. Geological evidences suggest that both large and small-scale fractures help in to analyze the seismic anisotropy which essentially contribute into characterization of petro physical properties behavior associated with directional migration of fluid. We generally question why basement study is much needed as historically it is being treated as non-productive and geoscientist had no interest in exploration of these basement rocks. Basement rock goes under high pressure and temperature, and seems to be highly fractured because of the tectonic stresses that are applied to the formation along with the other geological factors such as depositional trend, internal stress of the rock body, rock rheology, pore fluid and capillary pressure. Sometimes carbonate rocks also plays the role of basement and igneous body e.g basalt deposited over the carbonate rocks and fluid migrate from carbonate to igneous rock due to buoyancy force and adequate permeability generated by fracturing. So in order to analyze the complete petroleum system, FMC (Fluid Migration Characterization) is necessary through fractured media including fracture intensity, orientation and distribution both in basement rock and county rock. Thus good understanding of fractures can lead to project the correct wellbore trajectory or path which passes through potential permeable zone generated through intensified P-T and tectonic stress condition. This paper deals with the analysis of these fracture property such as intensity, orientation and distribution in basement rock as large scale fracture can be interpreted on seismic section, however, small scale fractures show ambiguity in interpretation because fracture in basement rock lies below the seismic wavelength and hence shows erroneous result in identification. Seismic attribute technique also helps us to delineate the seismic fracture and subtle changes in fracture zone and these can be inferred from azimuthal anisotropy in velocity and amplitude and spectral decomposition. Seismic azimuthal anisotropy derives fracture intensity and orientation from compressional wave and converted wave data and based on variation of amplitude or velocity with azimuth. Still detailed analysis of fractured basement required full isotropic and anisotropic analysis of fracture matrix and surrounding rock matrix in order to characterize the spatial variability of basement fracture which support the migration of fluid from basement to overlying rock.

Keywords: basement rock, natural fracture, reservoir characterization, seismic attribute

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
292 Analysis of Digital Transformation in Banking: The Hungarian Case

Authors: Éva Pintér, Péter Bagó, Nikolett Deutsch, Miklós Hetényi

Abstract:

The process of digital transformation has a profound influence on all sectors of the worldwide economy and the business environment. The influence of blockchain technology can be observed in the digital economy and e-government, rendering it an essential element of a nation's growth strategy. The banking industry is experiencing significant expansion and development of financial technology firms. Utilizing developing technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and big data (BD), these entrants are offering more streamlined financial solutions, promptly addressing client demands, and presenting a challenge to incumbent institutions. The advantages of digital transformation are evident in the corporate realm, and firms that resist its adoption put their survival at risk. The advent of digital technologies has revolutionized the business environment, streamlining processes and creating opportunities for enhanced communication and collaboration. Thanks to the aid of digital technologies, businesses can now swiftly and effortlessly retrieve vast quantities of information, all the while accelerating the process of creating new and improved products and services. Big data analytics is generally recognized as a transformative force in business, considered the fourth paradigm of science, and seen as the next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity. Big data, an emerging technology that is shaping the future of the banking sector, offers numerous advantages to banks. It enables them to effectively track consumer behavior and make informed decisions, thereby enhancing their operational efficiency. Banks may embrace big data technologies to promptly and efficiently identify fraud, as well as gain insights into client preferences, which can then be leveraged to create better-tailored products and services. Moreover, the utilization of big data technology empowers banks to develop more intelligent and streamlined models for accurately recognizing and focusing on the suitable clientele with pertinent offers. There is a scarcity of research on big data analytics in the banking industry, with the majority of existing studies only examining the advantages and prospects associated with big data. Although big data technologies are crucial, there is a dearth of empirical evidence about the role of big data analytics (BDA) capabilities in bank performance. This research addresses a gap in the existing literature by introducing a model that combines the resource-based view (RBV), the technical organization environment framework (TOE), and dynamic capability theory (DC). This study investigates the influence of Big Data Analytics (BDA) utilization on the performance of market and risk management. This is supported by a comparative examination of Hungarian mobile banking services.

Keywords: big data, digital transformation, dynamic capabilities, mobile banking

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291 Qualitative Characterization of Proteins in Common and Quality Protein Maize Corn by Mass Spectrometry

Authors: Benito Minjarez, Jesse Haramati, Yury Rodriguez-Yanez, Florencio Recendiz-Hurtado, Juan-Pedro Luna-Arias, Salvador Mena-Munguia

Abstract:

During the last decades, the world has experienced a rapid industrialization and an expanding economy favoring a demographic boom. As a consequence, countries around the world have focused on developing new strategies related to the production of different farm products in order to meet future demands. Consequently, different strategies have been developed seeking to improve the major food products for both humans and livestock. Corn, after wheat and rice, is the third most important crop globally and is the primary food source for both humans and livestock in many regions around the globe. In addition, maize (Zea mays) is an important source of protein accounting for up to 60% of the daily human protein supply. Generally, many of the cereal grains have proteins with relatively low nutritional value, when they are compared with proteins from meat. In the case of corn, much of the protein is found in the endosperm (75 to 85%) and is deficient in two essential amino acids, lysine, and tryptophan. This deficiency results in an imbalance of amino acids and low protein content; normal maize varieties have less than half of the recommended amino acids for human nutrition. In addition, studies have shown that this deficiency has been associated with symptoms of growth impairment, anemia, hypoproteinemia, and fatty liver. Due to the fact that most of the presently available maize varieties do not contain the quality and quantity of proteins necessary for a balanced diet, different countries have focused on the research of quality protein maize (QPM). Researchers have characterized QPM noting that these varieties may contain between 70 to 100% more residues of the amino acids essential for animal and human nutrition, lysine, and tryptophan, than common corn. Several countries in Africa, Latin America, as well as China, have incorporated QPM in their agricultural development plan. Large parts of these countries have chosen a specific QPM variety based on their local needs and climate. Reviews have described the breeding methods of maize and have revealed the lack of studies on genetic and proteomic diversity of proteins in QPM varieties, and their genetic relationships with normal maize varieties. Therefore, molecular marker identification using tools such as mass spectrometry may accelerate the selection of plants that carry the desired proteins with high lysine and tryptophan concentration. To date, QPM maize lines have played a very important role in alleviating the malnutrition, and better characterization of these lines would provide a valuable nutritional enhancement for use in the resource-poor regions of the world. Thus, the objectives of this study were to identify proteins in QPM maize in comparison with a common maize line as a control.

Keywords: corn, mass spectrometry, QPM, tryptophan

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290 Phenomena-Based Approach for Automated Generation of Process Options and Process Models

Authors: Parminder Kaur Heer, Alexei Lapkin

Abstract:

Due to global challenges of increased competition and demand for more sustainable products/processes, there is a rising pressure on the industry to develop innovative processes. Through Process Intensification (PI) the existing and new processes may be able to attain higher efficiency. However, very few PI options are generally considered. This is because processes are typically analysed at a unit operation level, thus limiting the search space for potential process options. PI performed at more detailed levels of a process can increase the size of the search space. The different levels at which PI can be achieved is unit operations, functional and phenomena level. Physical/chemical phenomena form the lowest level of aggregation and thus, are expected to give the highest impact because all the intensification options can be described by their enhancement. The objective of the current work is thus, generation of numerous process alternatives based on phenomena, and development of their corresponding computer aided models. The methodology comprises: a) automated generation of process options, and b) automated generation of process models. The process under investigation is disintegrated into functions viz. reaction, separation etc., and these functions are further broken down into the phenomena required to perform them. E.g., separation may be performed via vapour-liquid or liquid-liquid equilibrium. A list of phenomena for the process is formed and new phenomena, which can overcome the difficulties/drawbacks of the current process or can enhance the effectiveness of the process, are added to the list. For instance, catalyst separation issue can be handled by using solid catalysts; the corresponding phenomena are identified and added. The phenomena are then combined to generate all possible combinations. However, not all combinations make sense and, hence, screening is carried out to discard the combinations that are meaningless. For example, phase change phenomena need the co-presence of the energy transfer phenomena. Feasible combinations of phenomena are then assigned to the functions they execute. A combination may accomplish a single or multiple functions, i.e. it might perform reaction or reaction with separation. The combinations are then allotted to the functions needed for the process. This creates a series of options for carrying out each function. Combination of these options for different functions in the process leads to the generation of superstructure of process options. These process options, which are formed by a list of phenomena for each function, are passed to the model generation algorithm in the form of binaries (1, 0). The algorithm gathers the active phenomena and couples them to generate the model. A series of models is generated for the functions, which are combined to get the process model. The most promising process options are then chosen subjected to a performance criterion, for example purity of product, or via a multi-objective Pareto optimisation. The methodology was applied to a two-step process and the best route was determined based on the higher product yield. The current methodology can identify, produce and evaluate process intensification options from which the optimal process can be determined. It can be applied to any chemical/biochemical process because of its generic nature.

Keywords: Phenomena, Process intensification, Process models , Process options

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289 De-Pigmentary Effect of Ayurvedic Treatment on Hyper-Pigmentation of Skin Due to Chloroquine: A Case Report

Authors: Sunil Kumar, Rajesh Sharma

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Toxic epidermal necrolysis, pruritis, rashes, lichen planus like eruption, hyper pigmentation of skin are rare toxic effects of choloroquine used over a long time. Skin and mucus membrane hyper pigmentation is generally of a bluish black or grayish color and irreversible after discontinuation of the drug. According to Ayurveda, Dushivisha is the name given to any poisonous substance which is not fully endowed with the qualities of poison by nature (i.e. it acts as an impoverished or weak poison) and because of its mild potency, it remains in the body for many years causing various symptoms, one among them being discoloration of skin.The objective of this case report is to investigate the effect of Ayurvedic management of chloroquine induced hyper-pigmentation on the line of treatment of Dushivisha. Case Report: A 26-year-old female was suffering from hyper-pigmentation of the skin over the neck, forehead, temporo-mandibular joints, upper back and posterior aspect of both the arms since 8 years had history of taking Chloroquine came to Out Patient Department of National Institute of Ayurveda, Jaipur, India in Jan. 2015. The routine investigations (CBC, ESR, Eosinophil count) were within normal limits. Punch biopsy skin studied for histopathology under hematoxylin and eosin staining showed epidermis with hyper-pigmentation of the basal layer. In the papillary dermis as well as deep dermis there were scattered melanophages along with infiltration by mononuclear cells. There was no deposition of amyloid-like substances. These histopathological findings were suggestive of Chloroquine induced hyper-pigmentation. The case was treated on the line of treatment of Dushivisha and was given Vamana and Virechana (therapeutic emesis and purgation) every six months followed by Snehana karma (oleation therapy) with Panchatikta Ghrit and Swedana (sudation). Arogyavardhini Vati -1 g, Dushivishari Vati 500 mg, Mahamanjisthadi Quath 20 ml were given twelve hourly and Aragwadhadi Quath 25 ml at bed time orally. The patient started showing lightening of the pigments after six months and almost complete remission after 12 months of the treatment. Conclusion: This patient presented with the Dushivisha effect of Chloroquineandwas administered two relevant procedures from Panchakarma viz. Vamana and Virechana. Both Vamana and Virechanakarma here referred to Shodhana karma (purification procedures) eliminates accumulated toxins from the body. In this process, oleation dislodge the toxins from the tissues and sudation helps to bring them to the alimentary tract. The line of treatment did not target direct hypo pigmentary effects; rather aimed to eliminate the Dushivisha. This gave promising results in this condition.

Keywords: Ayurveda, chloroquine, Dushivisha, hyper-pigmentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 214
288 Destination Nollywood: A Newspaper Analysis of the Connections between Film and Tourism in Nigeria, 2012-2022

Authors: E. S. Martens, E. E. Onwuliri

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Over the past three decades, Nigeria’s film industry has become a global powerhouse, releasing hundreds of films annually and even monthly. Nollywood, a portmanteau of Nigeria and Hollywood as well as Bollywood that was coined by New York Times journalist Norimitsu Onishi in 2002, came to mark the plenitude of filmmaking happening in Lagos from the early 1990s onwards. Following the success of the 1992 straight-to-VHS film Living in Bondage, the Nigerian film industry experienced a popular home video boom that gained a huge following in Nigeria, across Africa, and among the global African diaspora. In fact, with an estimated worth of $6.4 billion as of 2021, Nollywood is nowadays considered the world’s second-largest film industry and even the largest in terms of output and popularity. Producing about 2,500 films annually and reaching an estimated audience of over 200 million people worldwide, Nollywood has not only seemingly surpassed Hollywood but also Bollywood with regard to production and consumption size. Due to its commercial success and cultural impact from the early 2010s, Nollywood has often been heralded as a potential driver of Africa’s tourism industry. In its 2012 Global Trends Report, the World Travel Market forecasted an increase in GDP in Africa due to tourism in Nollywood filming locations. Additionally, it was expected that the rising popularity of Nollywood would significantly contribute to growth in the leisure sector, drawing both film enthusiasts and business travelers intrigued by the expanding significance of the Nigerian film industry. Still, despite much talk about the potential impact of Nollywood on Nigerian tourism in the past 10 years or so, relatively little is known about Nollywood’s association with film tourism and the existing connections between Nigeria’s film and tourism industries more generally. Already well over a decade ago, it was observed that there is still a lack of research examining the extent to which film tourism related to Nollywood in Africa has been generated – and to date, this is still largely the case. This paper, then, seeks to discuss the reported connections between Nollywood and tourism and to review the efforts and opportunities related to Nollywood film tourism as suggested in Nigeria’s public domain. Based on a content analysis of over 50 newspaper articles and other online available materials, such as websites, blogs and forums, this paper explores the practices and discourses surrounding Nollywood connections with tourism in Nigeria and across Africa over the past ten years. The analysis shows that, despite these high expectations, film tourism related to Nollywood has remained limited. Despite growing government attention and support to Nollywood and its potential for tourism, most state initiatives in this direction have not (yet) materialize – and it very much remains to be seen to what extent ‘Destination Nollywood’ is really able to come to fruition as long as the structural issues underlying the development of Nigerian film (and) tourism are not sufficiently addressed.

Keywords: film tourism, Nigerian cinema, Nollywood, tourist destination

Procedia PDF Downloads 21
287 A Formal Microlectic Framework for Biological Circularchy

Authors: Ellis D. Cooper

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“Circularchy” is supposed to be an adjustable formal framework with enough expressive power to articulate biological theory about Earthly Life in the sense of multi-scale biological autonomy constrained by non-equilibrium thermodynamics. “Formal framework” means specifically a multi-sorted first-order-theorywithequality (for each sort). Philosophically, such a theory is one kind of “microlect,” which means a “way of speaking” (or, more generally, a “way of behaving”) for overtly expressing a “mental model” of some “referent.” Other kinds of microlect include “natural microlect,” “diagrammatic microlect,” and “behavioral microlect,” with examples such as “political theory,” “Euclidean geometry,” and “dance choreography,” respectively. These are all describable in terms of a vocabulary conforming to grammar. As aspects of human culture, they are possibly reminiscent of Ernst Cassirer’s idea of “symbolic form;” as vocabularies, they are akin to Richard Rorty’s idea of “final vocabulary” for expressing a mental model of one’s life. A formal microlect is presented by stipulating sorts, variables, calculations, predicates, and postulates. Calculations (a.k.a., “terms”) may be composed to form more complicated calculations; predicates (a.k.a., “relations”) may be logically combined to form more complicated predicates; and statements (a.k.a., “sentences”) are grammatically correct expressions which are true or false. Conclusions are statements derived using logical rules of deduction from postulates, other assumed statements, or previously derived conclusions. A circularchy is a formal microlect constituted by two or more sub-microlects, each with its distinct stipulations of sorts, variables, calculations, predicates, and postulates. Within a sub-microlect some postulates or conclusions are equations which are statements that declare equality of specified calculations. An equational bond between an equation in one sub-microlect and an equation in either the same sub-microlect or in another sub-microlect is a predicate that declares equality of symbols occurring in a side of one equation with symbols occurring in a side of the other equation. Briefly, a circularchy is a network of equational bonds between sub-microlects. A circularchy is solvable if there exist solutions for all equations that satisfy all equational bonds. If a circularchy is not solvable, then a challenge would be to discover the obstruction to solvability and then conjecture what adjustments might remove the obstruction. Adjustment means changes in stipulated ingredients (sorts, etc.) of sub-microlects, or changes in equational bonds between sub-microlects, or introduction of new sub-microlects and new equational bonds. A circularchy is modular insofar as each sub-microlect is a node in a network of equation bonds. Solvability of a circularchy may be conjectured. Efforts to prove solvability may be thwarted by a counter-example or may lead to the construction of a solution. An automated theorem-proof assistant would likely be necessary for investigating a substantial circularchy, such as one purported to represent Earthly Life. Such investigations (chains of statements) would be concurrent with and no substitute for simulations (chains of numbers).

Keywords: autonomy, first-order theory, mathematics, thermodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 198
286 Effect of Supplementation of Hay with Noug Seed Cake (Guizotia abyssinica), Wheat Bran and Their Mixtures on Feed Utilization, Digestiblity and Live Weight Change in Farta Sheep

Authors: Fentie Bishaw Wagayie

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This study was carried out with the objective of studying the response of Farta sheep in feed intake and live weight change when fed on hay supplemented with noug seed cake (NSC), wheat bran (WB), and their mixtures. The digestibility trial of 7 days and 90 days of feeding trial was conducted using 25 intact male Farta sheep with a mean initial live weight of 16.83 ± 0.169 kg. The experimental animals were arranged randomly into five blocks based on the initial live weight, and the five treatments were assigned randomly to each animal in a block. Five dietary treatments used in the experiment comprised of grass hay fed ad libitum (T1), grass hay ad libitum + 300 g DM WB (T2), grass hay ad libitum + 300 g DM (67% WB: 33% NSC mixture) (T3), grass hay ad libitum + 300 g DM (67% NSC: 33% WB) (T4) and 300 g DM/ head/day NSC (T5). Common salt and water were offered ad libitum. The supplements were offered twice daily at 0800 and 1600 hours. The experimental sheep were kept in individual pens. Supplementation of NSC, WB, and their mixtures significantly increased (p < 0.01) the total dry matter (DM) (665.84-788 g/head/day) and (p < 0.001) crude protein (CP) intake. Unsupplemented sheep consumed significantly higher (p < 0.01) grass hay DM (540.5g/head/day) as compared to the supplemented treatments (365.8-488 g/h/d), except T2. Among supplemented sheep, T5 had significantly higher (p < 0.001) CP intake (99.98 g/head/day) than the others (85.52-90.2 g/head/day). Supplementation significantly improved (p < 0.001) the digestibility of CP (66.61-78.9%), but there was no significant effect (p > 0.05) on DM, OM, NDF, and ADF digestibility between supplemented and control treatments. Very low CP digestibility (11.55%) observed in the basal diet (grass hay) used in this study indicated that feeding sole grass hay could not provide nutrients even for the maintenance requirement of growing sheep. Significant final and daily live weight gain (p < 0.001) in the range of 70.11-82.44 g/head/day was observed in supplemented Farta sheep, but unsupplemented sheep lost weight by 9.11g/head/day. Numerically, among the supplemented treatments, sheep supplemented with a higher proportion of NSC in T4 (201 NSC + 99 g WB) gained more weight than the rest, though not statistically significant (p > 0.05). The absence of statistical difference in daily body weight gain between all supplemented sheep indicated that the supplementation of NSC, WB, and their mixtures had similar potential to provide nutrients. Generally, supplementation of NSC, WB, and their mixtures to the basal grass hay diet improved feed conversion ratio, total DM intake, CP intake, and CP digestibility, and it also improved the growth performance with a similar trend for all supplemented Farta sheep over the control group. Therefore, from a biological point of view, to attain the required level of slaughter body weight within a short period of the growing program, sheep producer can use all the supplement types depending upon their local availability, but in the order of priority, T4, T5, T3, and T2, respectively. However, based on partial budget analysis, supplementation of 300 g DM/head /day NSC (T5) could be recommended as profitable for producers with no capital limitation, whereas T4 supplementation (201 g NSC + 99 WB DM/day) is recommended when there is capital scarcity.

Keywords: weight gain, supplement, Farta sheep, hay as basal diet

Procedia PDF Downloads 36
285 Melt–Electrospun Polyprophylene Fabrics Functionalized with TiO2 Nanoparticles for Effective Photocatalytic Decolorization

Authors: Z. Karahaliloğlu, C. Hacker, M. Demirbilek, G. Seide, E. B. Denkbaş, T. Gries

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Currently, textile industry has played an important role in world’s economy, especially in developing countries. Dyes and pigments used in textile industry are significant pollutants. Most of theirs are azo dyes that have chromophore (-N=N-) in their structure. There are many methods for removal of the dyes from wastewater such as chemical coagulation, flocculation, precipitation and ozonation. But these methods have numerous disadvantages and alternative methods are needed for wastewater decolorization. Titanium-mediated photodegradation has been used generally due to non-toxic, insoluble, inexpensive, and highly reactive properties of titanium dioxide semiconductor (TiO2). Melt electrospinning is an attractive manufacturing process for thin fiber production through electrospinning from PP (Polyprophylene). PP fibers have been widely used in the filtration due to theirs unique properties such as hydrophobicity, good mechanical strength, chemical resistance and low-cost production. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effect of titanium nanoparticle localization and amine modification on the dye degradation. The applicability of the prepared chemical activated composite and pristine fabrics for a novel treatment of dyeing wastewater were evaluated.In this study, a photocatalyzer material was prepared from nTi (titanium dioxide nanoparticles) and PP by a melt-electrospinning technique. The electrospinning parameters of pristine PP and PP/nTi nanocomposite fabrics were optimized. Before functionalization with nTi, the surface of fabrics was activated by a technique using glutaraldehyde (GA) and polyethyleneimine to promote the dye degredation. Pristine PP and PP/nTi nanocomposite melt-electrospun fabrics were characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-Ray Photon Spectroscopy (XPS). Methyl orange (MO) was used as a model compound for the decolorization experiments. Photocatalytic performance of nTi-loaded pristine and nanocomposite melt-electrospun filters was investigated by varying initial dye concentration 10, 20, 40 mg/L). nTi-PP composite fabrics were successfully processed into a uniform, fibrous network of beadless fibers with diameters of 800±0.4 nm. The process parameters were determined as a voltage of 30 kV, a working distance of 5 cm, a temperature of the thermocouple and hotcoil of 260–300 ºC and a flow rate of 0.07 mL/h. SEM results indicated that TiO2 nanoparticles were deposited uniformly on the nanofibers and XPS results confirmed the presence of titanium nanoparticles and generation of amine groups after modification. According to photocatalytic decolarization test results, nTi-loaded GA-treated pristine or nTi-PP nanocomposite fabric filtern have superior properties, especially over 90% decolorization efficiency at GA-treated pristine and nTi-PP composite PP fabrics. In this work, as a photocatalyzer for wastewater treatment, surface functionalized with nTi melt-electrospun fabrics from PP were prepared. Results showed melt-electrospun nTi-loaded GA-tretaed composite or pristine PP fabrics have a great potential for use as a photocatalytic filter to decolorization of wastewater and thus, requires further investigation.

Keywords: titanium oxide nanoparticles, polyprophylene, melt-electrospinning

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
284 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Droughts in the Limpopo River Basin

Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
283 Influence of Structured Capillary-Porous Coatings on Cryogenic Quenching Efficiency

Authors: Irina P. Starodubtseva, Aleksandr N. Pavlenko

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Quenching is a term generally accepted for the process of rapid cooling of a solid that is overheated above the thermodynamic limit of the liquid superheat. The main objective of many previous studies on quenching is to find a way to reduce the total time of the transient process. Computational experiments were performed to simulate quenching by a falling liquid nitrogen film of an extremely overheated vertical copper plate with a structured capillary-porous coating. The coating was produced by directed plasma spraying. Due to the complexities in physical pattern of quenching from chaotic processes to phase transition, the mechanism of heat transfer during quenching is still not sufficiently understood. To our best knowledge, no information exists on when and how the first stable liquid-solid contact occurs and how the local contact area begins to expand. Here we have more models and hypotheses than authentically established facts. The peculiarities of the quench front dynamics and heat transfer in the transient process are studied. The created numerical model determines the quench front velocity and the temperature fields in the heater, varying in space and time. The dynamic pattern of the running quench front obtained numerically satisfactorily correlates with the pattern observed in experiments. Capillary-porous coatings with straight and reverse orientation of crests are investigated. The results show that the cooling rate is influenced by thermal properties of the coating as well as the structure and geometry of the protrusions. The presence of capillary-porous coating significantly affects the dynamics of quenching and reduces the total quenching time more than threefold. This effect is due to the fact that the initialization of a quench front on a plate with a capillary-porous coating occurs at a temperature significantly higher than the thermodynamic limit of the liquid superheat, when a stable solid-liquid contact is thermodynamically impossible. Waves present on the liquid-vapor interface and protrusions on the complex micro-structured surface cause destabilization of the vapor film and the appearance of local liquid-solid micro-contacts even though the average integral surface temperature is much higher than the liquid superheat limit. The reliability of the results is confirmed by direct comparison with experimental data on the quench front velocity, the quench front geometry, and the surface temperature change over time. Knowledge of the quench front velocity and total time of transition process is required for solving practically important problems of nuclear reactors safety.

Keywords: capillary-porous coating, heat transfer, Leidenfrost phenomenon, numerical simulation, quenching

Procedia PDF Downloads 110
282 Life Stories of Adult Amateur Cellists That Inspire Them to Take Individual Lessons: A Narrative Inquiry

Authors: A. Marais

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A challenging aspect of teaching cello to novice adult learners is finding adequate lesson material and applying relevant teaching methodologies. It could play a crucial role in adult learners' decision to commence or stop taking music lessons. This study contributes to the theory and practises of continuing education. This study is important to lifelong learning, especially with the focus on adult teaching and learning and the difficulties concerning these themes. The research problem identified for this study is we are not aware of adults' life stories; thus, cello lesson material is not always relevant for adult's specific needs for motivation and goals for starting cello lessons. In my experience, an adult does not necessarily want to play children songs when they learn a new instrument. They want material and lessons fitted to adult learners. Adults also learn differently from younger beginners. Adults ask questions such as how and why, while children more readily accept what is being taught. This research creates awareness of adults' musical needs and learning methods. If every adult shares their own story for commencing and continuing with cello lessons, material should be created, revised, or adapted for more individually appropriate lessons. A number of studies show that adults taking music lessons experience a decrease in feelings of loneliness and isolation. It gives adults a sense of wellbeing and can help improve immune systems. The purpose of this research study will be to discover the life stories of adult amateur cellists. At this stage in the research, the life stories of amateur cellists can generally be defined as personal reflections of their motivations for and experiences of commencing and continuing with individual lessons. The findings of this study will contribute to the development of cello lesson material for adult beginners based on their stories. This research could also encourage adults to commence with music lessons and could, in that way, contribute to their quality of life. Music learners become aware of deep spiritual, emotional, and social values incorporated or experienced through musical learning. This will be a qualitative study with a narrative approach making use of oral history. The chosen method will encapsulate the stories of amateur individual adults starting and continuing with cello lessons. The narrative method entails experiences as expressed in lived and told stories of individuals. Oral history is used as part of the narrative method and entails gathering of personal reflections of events and their cause and effects from an individual or several individuals. These findings from this study will contribute to adult amateur cellists' motivations to continue with music lessons and inspire others to commence. The inspiring life stories of the amateur cellists would provide insight into finding and creating new cello lesson material and enhance existing teaching methodologies for adult amateur cellists.

Keywords: adult, amateur, cello, education, learning, music, stories

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
281 Students’ Opinions Related to Virtual Classrooms within the Online Distance Education Graduate Program

Authors: Secil Kaya Gulen

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Face to face and virtual classrooms that came up with different conditions and environments, but similar purposes have different characteristics. Although virtual classrooms have some similar facilities with face-to-face classes such as program, students, and administrators, they have no walls and corridors. Therefore, students can attend the courses from a distance and can control their own learning spaces. Virtual classrooms defined as simultaneous online environments where students in different places come together at the same time with the guidance of a teacher. Distance education and virtual classes require different intellectual and managerial skills and models. Therefore, for effective use of virtual classrooms, the virtual property should be taken into consideration. One of the most important factors that affect the spread and effective use of the virtual classrooms is the perceptions and opinions of students -as one the main participants-. Student opinions and recommendations are important in terms of providing information about the fulfillment of expectation. This will help to improve the applications and contribute to the more efficient implementations. In this context, ideas and perceptions of the students related to the virtual classrooms, in general, were determined in this study. Advantages and disadvantages of virtual classrooms expected contributions to the educational system and expected characteristics of virtual classrooms have examined in this study. Students of an online distance education graduate program in which all the courses offered by virtual classrooms have asked for their opinions. Online Distance Education Graduate Program has totally 19 students. The questionnaire that consists of open-ended and multiple choice questions sent to these 19 students and finally 12 of them answered the questionnaire. Analysis of the data presented as frequencies and percentages for each item. SPSS for multiple-choice questions and Nvivo for open-ended questions were used for analyses. According to the results obtained by the analysis, participants stated that they did not get any training on virtual classes before the courses; but they emphasize that newly enrolled students should be educated about the virtual classrooms. In addition, all participants mentioned that virtual classroom contribute their personal development and they want to improve their skills by gaining more experience. The participants, who mainly emphasize the advantages of virtual classrooms, express that the dissemination of virtual classrooms will contribute to the Turkish Education System. Within the advantages of virtual classrooms, ‘recordable and repeatable lessons’ and ‘eliminating the access and transportation costs’ are most common advantages according to the participants. On the other hand, they mentioned ‘technological features and keyboard usage skills affect the attendance’ is the most common disadvantage. Participants' most obvious problem during virtual lectures is ‘lack of technical support’. Finally ‘easy to use’, ‘support possibilities’, ‘communication level’ and ‘flexibility’ come to the forefront in the scope of expected features of virtual classrooms. Last of all, students' opinions about the virtual classrooms seems to be generally positive. Designing and managing virtual classrooms according to the prioritized features will increase the students’ satisfaction and will contribute to improve applications that are more effective.

Keywords: distance education, virtual classrooms, higher education, e-learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
280 UV-Cured Thiol-ene Based Polymeric Phase Change Materials for Thermal Energy Storage

Authors: M. Vezir Kahraman, Emre Basturk

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Energy storage technology offers new ways to meet the demand to obtain efficient and reliable energy storage materials. Thermal energy storage systems provide the potential to acquire energy savings, which in return decrease the environmental impact related to energy usage. For this purpose, phase change materials (PCMs) that work as 'latent heat storage units' which can store or release large amounts of energy are preferred. Phase change materials (PCMs) are being utilized to absorb, collect and discharge thermal energy during the cycle of melting and freezing, converting from one phase to another. Phase Change Materials (PCMs) can generally be arranged into three classes: organic materials, salt hydrates and eutectics. Many kinds of organic and inorganic PCMs and their blends have been examined as latent heat storage materials. PCMs have found different application areas such as solar energy storage and transfer, HVAC (Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning) systems, thermal comfort in vehicles, passive cooling, temperature controlled distributions, industrial waste heat recovery, under floor heating systems and modified fabrics in textiles. Ultraviolet (UV)-curing technology has many advantages, which made it applicable in many different fields. Low energy consumption, high speed, room-temperature operation, low processing costs, high chemical stability, and being environmental friendly are some of its main benefits. UV-curing technique has many applications. One of the many advantages of UV-cured PCMs is that they prevent the interior PCMs from leaking. Shape-stabilized PCM is prepared by blending the PCM with a supporting material, usually polymers. In our study, this problem is minimized by coating the fatty alcohols with a photo-cross-linked thiol-ene based polymeric system. Leakage is minimized because photo-cross-linked polymer acts a matrix. The aim of this study is to introduce a novel thiol-ene based shape-stabilized PCM. Photo-crosslinked thiol-ene based polymers containing fatty alcohols were prepared and characterized for the purpose of phase change materials (PCMs). Different types of fatty alcohols were used in order to investigate their properties as shape-stable PCMs. The structure of the PCMs was confirmed by ATR-FTIR techniques. The phase transition behaviors, thermal stability of the prepared photo-crosslinked PCMs were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). This work was supported by Marmara University, Commission of Scientific Research Project.

Keywords: differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Polymeric phase change material, thermal energy storage, UV-curing

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
279 Bioflavonoids Derived from Mandarin Processing Wastes: Functional Hydrogels as a Sustainable Food Systems

Authors: Niharika Kaushal, Minni Singh

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Fruit crops are widely cultivated throughout the World, with citrus being one of the most common. Mandarins, oranges, grapefruits, lemons, and limes are among the most frequently grown varieties. Citrus cultivars are industrially processed into juice, resulting in approx. 25-40% by wt. of biomass in the form of peels and seeds, generally considered as waste. In consequence, a significant amount of this nutraceutical-enriched biomass goes to waste, which, if utilized wisely, could revolutionize the functional food industry, as this biomass possesses a wide range of bioactive compounds, mainly within the class of polyphenols and terpenoids, making them an abundant source of functional bioactive. Mandarin is a potential source of bioflavonoids with putative antioxidative properties, and its potential application for developing value-added products is obvious. In this study, ‘kinnow’ mandarin (Citrus nobilis X Citrus deliciosa) biomass was studied for its flavonoid profile. For this, dried and pulverized peels were subjected to green and sustainable extraction techniques, namely, supercritical fluid extraction carried out under conditions pressure: 330 bar, temperature: 40 ̊ C and co-solvent: 10% ethanol. The obtained extract was observed to contain 47.3±1.06 mg/ml rutin equivalents as total flavonoids. Mass spectral analysis revealed the prevalence of polymethoxyflavones (PMFs), chiefly tangeretin and nobiletin. Furthermore, the antioxidant potential was analyzed by the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) method, which was estimated to be at an IC₅₀ of 0.55μg/ml. The pre-systemic metabolism of flavonoids limits their functionality, as was observed in this study through in vitro gastrointestinal studies where nearly 50.0% of the flavonoids were degraded within 2 hours of gastric exposure. We proposed nanoencapsulation as a means to overcome this problem, and flavonoids-laden polylactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) nano encapsulates were bioengineered using solvent evaporation method, and these were furnished to a particle size between 200-250nm, which exhibited protection of flavonoids in the gastric environment, allowing only 20% to be released in 2h. A further step involved impregnating the nano encapsulates within alginate hydrogels which were fabricated by ionic cross-linking, which would act as delivery vehicles within the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. As a result, 100% protection was achieved from the pre-systemic release of bioflavonoids. These alginate hydrogels had key significant features, i.e., less porosity of nearly 20.0%, and Cryo-SEM (Cryo-scanning electron microscopy) images of the composite corroborate the packing ability of the alginate hydrogel. As a result of this work, it is concluded that the waste can be used to develop functional biomaterials while retaining the functionality of the bioactive itself.

Keywords: bioflavonoids, gastrointestinal, hydrogels, mandarins

Procedia PDF Downloads 56
278 Participatory Budgeting in South African Local Government: A Right or Illusion

Authors: Oliver Fuo

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One of the central features of post-apartheid constitutional reform was the establishment of local government as a distinct sphere of government in the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa, 1996. Local government, constituted by about 279 wall-to-wall municipalities, have legislative and executive powers vested in democratically elected municipal councils to govern areas within their jurisdiction subject only to limits imposed by the Constitution. In addition, unlike the past where municipalities merely played a service delivery role, they are now mandated to realise an expanded developmental mandate – pursue social justice and sustainable development; contribute, together with national and provincial government, to the realisation of socio-economic rights entrenched in the Bill of Rights; and facilitate public participation in local governance. In order to finance their developmental programmes, municipalities receive equitable allocations from national government and have legal powers to generate additional finances by charging rates on property and imposing surcharges on services provided. In addition to its general obligation to foster public participation in local governance, the law requires municipalities to facilitate public participation in their budgeting processes. This requirement is generally consistent with recent trends in local government democratic reforms which call for inclusive budget planning and implementation whereby citizens, civil society and NGOs participate in the allocation of resources. This trend is best captured in the concept of participatory budgeting. This paper specifically analyses the legal and policy framework for participatory budgeting at the local government level in South Africa. Using Borbet South Africa (Pty) Ltd and Others v Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality 2014 (5) SA 256 (ECP) as an example, this paper argues that the legal framework for participatory budgeting creates an illusory right for citizens to participate in municipal budgeting processes. This challenge is further compounded by the barrenness of the jurisprudence of courts that interpret the obligation of municipalities in this regard. It is submitted that the wording of s 27(4) of the Municipal Finance Management Act (MFMA) 53 of 2003 - which expressly stipulates that non-compliance by a municipality with a provision relating to the budget process or a provision in any legislation relating to the approval of a budget-related policy, does not affect the validity of an annual or adjustments budget – is problematic as it seems to trivialise the obligation to facilitate public participation in budgeting processes. It is submitted that where this provision is abused by municipal officials, this could lead to the sidelining of the real interests of communities in local budgets. This research is based on a critical and integrated review of primary and secondary sources of law.

Keywords: courts and jurisprudence, local government law, participatory budgeting, South Africa

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277 Sensory Interventions for Dementia: A Review

Authors: Leigh G. Hayden, Susan E. Shepley, Cristina Passarelli, William Tingo

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Introduction: Sensory interventions are popular therapeutic and recreational approaches for people living with all stages of dementia. However, it is unknown which sensory interventions are used to achieve which outcomes across all subtypes of dementia. Methods: To address this gap, we conducted a scoping review of sensory interventions for people living with dementia. We conducted a search of the literature for any article published in English from 1 January 1990 to 1 June 2019, on any sensory or multisensory intervention targeted to people living with any kind of dementia, which reported on patient health outcomes. We did not include complex interventions where only a small aspect was related to sensory stimulation. We searched the databases Medline, CINHAL, and Psych Articles using our institutional discovery layer. We conducted all screening in duplicate to reduce Type 1 and Type 2 errors. The data from all included papers were extracted by one team member, and audited by another, to ensure consistency of extraction and completeness of data. Results: Our initial search captured 7654 articles, and the removal of duplicates (n=5329), those that didn’t pass title and abstract screening (n=1840) and those that didn’t pass full-text screening (n=281) resulted in 174 articles included. The countries with the highest publication in this area were the United States (n=59), the United Kingdom (n=26) and Australia (n=15). The most common type of interventions were music therapy (n=36), multisensory rooms (n=27) and multisensory therapies (n=25). Seven articles were published in the 1990’s, 55 in the 2000’s, and the remainder since 2010 (n=112). Discussion: Multisensory rooms have been present in the literature since the early 1990’s. However, more recently, nature/garden therapy, art therapy, and light therapy have emerged since 2008 in the literature, an indication of the increasingly diverse scholarship in the area. The least popular type of intervention is a traditional food intervention. Taste as a sensory intervention is generally avoided for safety reasons, however it shows potential for increasing quality of life. Agitation, behavior, and mood are common outcomes for all sensory interventions. However, light therapy commonly targets sleep. The majority (n=110) of studies have very small sample sizes (n=20 or less), an indicator of the lack of robust data in the field. Additional small-scale studies of the known sensory interventions will likely do little to advance the field. However, there is a need for multi-armed studies which directly compare sensory interventions, and more studies which investigate the use of layering sensory interventions (for example, adding an aromatherapy component to a lighting intervention). In addition, large scale studies which enroll people at early stages of dementia will help us better understand the potential of sensory and multisensory interventions to slow the progression of the disease.

Keywords: sensory interventions, dementia, scoping review

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276 Risks for Cyanobacteria Harmful Algal Blooms in Georgia Piedmont Waterbodies Due to Land Management and Climate Interactions

Authors: Sam Weber, Deepak Mishra, Susan Wilde, Elizabeth Kramer

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The frequency and severity of cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) have been increasing over time, with point and non-point source eutrophication and shifting climate paradigms being blamed as the primary culprits. Excessive nutrients, warm temperatures, quiescent water, and heavy and less regular rainfall create more conducive environments for CyanoHABs. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce a spectrum of toxins that cause gastrointestinal stress, organ failure, and even death in humans and animals. To promote enhanced, proactive CyanoHAB management, risk modeling using geospatial tools can act as predictive mechanisms to supplement current CyanoHAB monitoring, management and mitigation efforts. The risk maps would empower water managers to focus their efforts on high risk water bodies in an attempt to prevent CyanoHABs before they occur, and/or more diligently observe those waterbodies. For this research, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify the strongest predicators for CyanoHAB blooms based on remote sensing-derived cyanobacteria cell density values for 771 waterbodies in the Georgia Piedmont and landscape characteristics of their watersheds. In-situ datasets for cyanobacteria cell density, nutrients, temperature, and rainfall patterns are not widely available, so free gridded geospatial datasets were used as proxy variables for assessing CyanoHAB risk. For example, the percent of a watershed that is agriculture was used as a proxy for nutrient loading, and the summer precipitation within a watershed was used as a proxy for water quiescence. Cyanobacteria cell density values were calculated using atmospherically corrected images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2A satellite and multispectral instrument sensor at a 10-meter ground resolution. Seventeen explanatory variables were calculated for each watershed utilizing the multi-petabyte geospatial catalogs available within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing interface. The seventeen variables were then used in a multiple linear regression model, and the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density were selected for the final regression model. The seventeen explanatory variables included land cover composition, winter and summer temperature and precipitation data, topographic derivatives, vegetation index anomalies, and soil characteristics. Watershed maximum summer temperature, percent agriculture, percent forest, percent impervious, and waterbody area emerged as the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.31 and a p-value ~ 0. The final regression equation was used to make a normalized cyanobacteria cell density index, and a Jenks Natural Break classification was used to assign waterbodies designations of low, medium, or high risk. Of the 771 waterbodies, 24.38% were low risk, 37.35% were medium risk, and 38.26% were high risk. This study showed that there are significant relationships between free geospatial datasets representing summer maximum temperatures, nutrient loading associated with land use and land cover, and the area of a waterbody with cyanobacteria cell density. This data analytics approach to CyanoHAB risk assessment corroborated the literature-established environmental triggers for CyanoHABs, and presents a novel approach for CyanoHAB risk mapping in waterbodies across the greater southeastern United States.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, land use/land cover, remote sensing, risk mapping

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275 Valorisation of Food Waste Residue into Sustainable Bioproducts

Authors: Krishmali N. Ekanayake, Brendan J. Holland, Colin J. Barrow, Rick Wood

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Globally, more than one-third of all food produced is lost or wasted, equating to 1.3 billion tonnes per year. Around 31.2 million tonnes of food waste are generated across the production, supply, and consumption chain in Australia. Generally, the food waste management processes adopt environmental-friendly and more sustainable approaches such as composting, anerobic digestion and energy implemented technologies. However, unavoidable, and non-recyclable food waste ends up as landfilling and incineration that involve many undesirable impacts and challenges on the environment. A biorefinery approach contributes to a waste-minimising circular economy by converting food and other organic biomass waste into valuable outputs, including feeds, nutrition, fertilisers, and biomaterials. As a solution, Green Eco Technologies has developed a food waste treatment process using WasteMaster system. The system uses charged oxygen and moderate temperatures to convert food waste, without bacteria, additives, or water, into a virtually odour-free, much reduced quantity of reusable residual material. In the context of a biorefinery, the WasteMaster dries and mills food waste into a form suitable for storage or downstream extraction/separation/concentration to create products. The focus of the study is to determine the nutritional composition of WasteMaster processed residue to potential develop aquafeed ingredients. The global aquafeed industry is projected to reach a high value market in future, which has shown high demand for the aquafeed products. Therefore, food waste can be utilized for aquaculture feed development by reducing landfill. This framework will lessen the requirement of raw crops cultivation for aquafeed development and reduce the aquaculture footprint. In the present study, the nutritional elements of processed residue are consistent with the input food waste type, which has shown that the WasteMaster is not affecting the expected nutritional distribution. The macronutrient retention values of protein, lipid, and nitrogen free extract (NFE) are detected >85%, >80%, and >95% respectively. The sensitive food components including omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acids, amino acids, and phenolic compounds have been found intact in each residue material. Preliminary analysis suggests a price comparability with current aquafeed ingredient cost making the economic feasibility. The results suggest high potentiality of aquafeed development as 5 to 10% of the ingredients to replace/partially substitute other less sustainable ingredients across biorefinery setting. Our aim is to improve the sustainability of aquaculture and reduce the environmental impacts of food waste.

Keywords: biorefinery, ffood waste residue, input, wasteMaster

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274 Work-Family Conflict and Family and Job Resources among Women: The Role of Negotiation

Authors: Noa Nelson, Meitar Moshe, Dana Cohen

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Work-family conflict (WFC) is a significant source of stress for contemporary employees, with research indicating its heightened severity for women. The conservation of resources theory argues that individuals experience stress when their resources fall short of demands, and attempt to reach balance by obtaining resources. Presumably then, to achieve work-family balance women would need to negotiate for resources such as spouse support, employer support and work flexibility. The current research tested the hypotheses that competent negotiation at home and at work associated with increased family and job resources and with decreased WFC, as well as with higher work, marital and life satisfaction. In the first study, 113 employed mothers, married or cohabiting, reported to what extent they conducted satisfactory negotiation with spouse over division of housework, and their actual housework load compared to spouse. They answered a WFC questionnaire, measuring how much work interferes with family (WIF) and how much family interferes with work (FIW), and finally, measurements of satisfaction. In the second study, 94 employed mothers, married or cohabiting reported to what extent they conducted satisfactory negotiation with their boss over balancing work demands with family needs. They reported the levels of three job resources: flexibility, control and family-friendly organizational culture. Finally, they answered the same WFC and satisfaction measurements from study 1. Statistical analyses –t-tests, correlations, and hierarchical linear regressions- showed that in both studies, women reported higher WIF than FIW. Negotiations associated with increased resources: support from spouse, work flexibility and control and a family-friendly culture; negotiation with spouse associated also with satisfaction measurements. However, negotiations or resources (except family-friendly culture) did not associate with reduced conflict. The studies demonstrate the role of negotiation in obtaining family and job resources. Causation cannot be determined, but the fact is that employed mothers who enjoyed more support (at both home and work), flexibility and control, were more likely to keep active interactions to increase them. This finding has theoretical and practical implications, especially in view of research on female avoidance of negotiation. It is intriguing that negotiations and resources generally did not associate with reduced WFC. This finding might reflect the severity of the conflict, especially of work interfering with family, which characterizes many contemporary jobs. It might also suggest that employed mothers have high expectations from themselves, and even under supportive circumstances, experience the challenge of balancing two significant and demanding roles. The research contributes to the fields of negotiation, gender, and work-life balance. It calls for further studies, to test its model in additional populations and validate the role employees have in actively negotiating for the balance that they need. It also calls for further research to understand the contributions of job and family resources to reducing work-family conflict, and the circumstances under which they contribute.

Keywords: sork-family conflict, work-life balance, negotiation, gender, job resources, family resources

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273 Analysis of Composite Health Risk Indicators Built at a Regional Scale and Fine Resolution to Detect Hotspot Areas

Authors: Julien Caudeville, Muriel Ismert

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Analyzing the relationship between environment and health has become a major preoccupation for public health as evidenced by the emergence of the French national plans for health and environment. These plans have identified the following two priorities: (1) to identify and manage geographic areas, where hotspot exposures are suspected to generate a potential hazard to human health; (2) to reduce exposure inequalities. At a regional scale and fine resolution of exposure outcome prerequisite, environmental monitoring networks are not sufficient to characterize the multidimensionality of the exposure concept. In an attempt to increase representativeness of spatial exposure assessment approaches, risk composite indicators could be built using additional available databases and theoretical framework approaches to combine factor risks. To achieve those objectives, combining data process and transfer modeling with a spatial approach is a fundamental prerequisite that implies the need to first overcome different scientific limitations: to define interest variables and indicators that could be built to associate and describe the global source-effect chain; to link and process data from different sources and different spatial supports; to develop adapted methods in order to improve spatial data representativeness and resolution. A GIS-based modeling platform for quantifying human exposure to chemical substances (PLAINE: environmental inequalities analysis platform) was used to build health risk indicators within the Lorraine region (France). Those indicators combined chemical substances (in soil, air and water) and noise risk factors. Tools have been developed using modeling, spatial analysis and geostatistic methods to build and discretize interest variables from different supports and resolutions on a 1 km2 regular grid within the Lorraine region. By example, surface soil concentrations have been estimated by developing a Kriging method able to integrate surface and point spatial supports. Then, an exposure model developed by INERIS was used to assess the transfer from soil to individual exposure through ingestion pathways. We used distance from polluted soil site to build a proxy for contaminated site. Air indicator combined modeled concentrations and estimated emissions to take in account 30 polluants in the analysis. For water, drinking water concentrations were compared to drinking water standards to build a score spatialized using a distribution unit serve map. The Lden (day-evening-night) indicator was used to map noise around road infrastructures. Aggregation of the different factor risks was made using different methodologies to discuss weighting and aggregation procedures impact on the effectiveness of risk maps to take decisions for safeguarding citizen health. Results permit to identify pollutant sources, determinants of exposure, and potential hotspots areas. A diagnostic tool was developed for stakeholders to visualize and analyze the composite indicators in an operational and accurate manner. The designed support system will be used in many applications and contexts: (1) mapping environmental disparities throughout the Lorraine region; (2) identifying vulnerable population and determinants of exposure to set priorities and target for pollution prevention, regulation and remediation; (3) providing exposure database to quantify relationships between environmental indicators and cancer mortality data provided by French Regional Health Observatories.

Keywords: health risk, environment, composite indicator, hotspot areas

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272 Statistical Comparison of Ensemble Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 289