Search results for: analytical modelling

Authors: Emad Mohammed Sani

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Women encounter exclusion and discrimination in varying degrees, particularly those who marry as minors. The detrimental custom of getting married young is still prevalent worldwide and affects millions of people. It has been less common over time, although it is still widespread in underdeveloped nations. Oromia Regional State is the region in Ethiopia with the highest proportion of child brides. This study aimed at evaluating the effects of early marriage on its survivors’ life conditions – specifically, empowerment and household decision-making – in Eastern Hararghe Zone of Oromia Region. This study employed community-based cross-sectional study design. It adopted mixed method approach – survey, in-depth interview and focus group discussion (FGD) – to collect, analyses and interpret data on early marriage and its effects on household decision-making processes. Narratives and analytical descriptions were integrated to substantiate and/or explain observed quantitative results, or generate contextual themes. According to this study, married women who were married at or after the age of eighteen participated more in household decision-making than child brides. Child brides were more likely to be victims of violence and other types of spousal abuse in their marriages. These changes are mostly caused by an individual's age at first marriage. Delaying marriage had a large positive impact on women's empowerment at the household level, and age at first marriage had a considerable negative impact. In order to advance women's welfare and emancipation, we advise more research to concentrate on the relationship between the home and the social-structural forms that appear at the individual and communal levels.

Keywords: child-bride, early marriage, women, ethiopia

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Authors: Xuelian Qin

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Urban "organic renewal" based on the development of existing resources in high-density urban areas has become the mainstream of urban development in the new era. As an important stock resource of public space in high-density urban areas, promoting its value remodeling is an effective way to alleviate the shortage of public space resources. However, due to the lack of evaluation links in the process of underpass space renewal, a large number of underpass space resources have been left idle, facing the problems of low space conversion efficiency, lack of accuracy in development decision-making, and low adaptability of functional positioning to citizens' needs. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to construct the evaluation system of under-bridge space renewal potential and explore the renewal mode. In this paper, some of the under-bridge spaces in the main urban area of Chongqing are selected as the research object. Through the questionnaire interviews with the users of the built excellent space under the bridge, three types of six levels and twenty-two potential evaluation indexes of "objective demand factor, construction feasibility factor and construction suitability factor" are selected, including six levels of land resources, infrastructure, accessibility, safety, space quality and ecological environment. The analytical hierarchy process and expert scoring method are used to determine the index weight, construct the potential evaluation system of the space under the bridge in high-density urban areas of Chongqing, and explore the direction of renewal and utilization of its suitability. To provide feasible theoretical basis and scientific decision support for the use of under bridge space in the future.

Keywords: high density urban area, potential evaluation, space under bridge, updated using

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mojtahedi

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Rapid urbanization presents multifaceted challenges, including environmental degradation and public health concerns. As the inevitability of urban sprawl continues, it becomes essential to devise strategies to alleviate its pressures on natural ecosystems and elevate socio-economic benchmarks within cities. This research investigates urban agriculture's economic contributions, emphasizing its pivotal role in food provisioning and export potential. Adopting a descriptive-analytical approach, field survey data was primarily collected via questionnaires. The tool's validity was affirmed by expert opinions, and its reliability secured by achieving a Cronbach's alpha score over 0.70 from 30 preliminary questionnaires. The research encompasses Neishabour's populace of 264,375, extracting a sample size of 384 via Cochran's formula. Findings reveal the significance of urban agriculture in food supply and its potential for exports, underlined by a p-value < 0.05. Neishabour's urban farming can augment the export of organic commodities, fruits, vegetables, ornamental plants, and foster product branding. Moreover, it supports the provision of fresh produce, bolstering dietary quality. Urban agriculture further impacts urban development metrics—enhancing environmental quality, job opportunities, income levels, and aesthetics, while promoting rainwater utilization. Popular cultivations include peaches, Damask roses, and poultry, tailored to available spaces. Structural equation modeling indicates urban agriculture's overarching influence, accounting for a 56% variance, predominantly in food sufficiency and export proficiency.

Keywords: urban agriculture, food supply, export potential, urban development, environmental health, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Heval Serhat Uluk, Sam M. Dakka, Kuldeep Singh, Richard Jefferson-Loveday

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The carbon footprint of the aviation sector in total measured 3.8% in 2017, and it is expected to triple by 2050. New combustion approaches and fuel types are necessary to prevent this. This paper will focus on using propane, methane, and hydrogen as fuel replacements for kerosene and implement a trapped vortex combustor design to increase efficiency. Reacting simulations were conducted for axisymmetric trapped vortex combustor to investigate the static pressure drop, combustion efficiency and pattern factor for various cavity aspect ratios for 0.3, 0.6 and 1 and air mass flow rates for 14 m/s, 28 m/s and 42 m/s. Propane, methane and hydrogen are used as alternative fuels. The combustion model was anchored based on swirl flame configuration with an emphasis on high fidelity of boundary conditions with favorable results of eddy dissipation model implementation. Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) k-ε model turbulence model for the validation effort was used for turbulence modelling. A grid independence study was conducted for the three-dimensional model to reduce computational time. Preliminary results for 24 m/s air mass flow rate provided a close temperature profile inside the cavity relative to the experimental study. The investigation will be carried out on the effect of air mass flow rates and cavity aspect ratio on the combustion efficiency, pattern factor and static pressure drop in the combustor. A comparison study among pure methane, propane and hydrogen will be conducted to investigate their suitability for trapped vortex combustors and conclude their advantages and disadvantages as a fuel replacement. Therefore, the study will be one of the milestones to achieving 2050 zero carbon emissions or reducing carbon emissions.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, aerodynamic, aerospace, propulsion, trapped vortex combustor

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Authors: Anat Keller

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Given that macro-prudential supervision is a relatively new policy area and its empirical and analytical research are still in their infancy, its theoretical foundations are also lagging behind. This paper contributes to the developing discussion on effective legal and institutional macroprudential supervision frameworks. In the first part of the paper, it is argued that effectiveness as a key benchmark poses some challenges in the context of macroprudential supervision such as the difficulty in proving causality between supervisory actions and the achievement of the supervisor’s mission. The paper suggests that effectiveness in the macroprudential context should, therefore, be assessed at the supervisory decision-making process (to be differentiated from the supervisory outcomes). The second part of the essay examines whether insights from behavioural economics can point to biases in the macroprudential decision-making process. These biases include, inter alia, preference bias, groupthink bias and inaction bias. It is argued that these biases are exacerbated in the multilateral setting of the macroprudential supervision framework in the EU. The paper then examines how legal and institutional frameworks should be designed to acknowledge and perhaps contain these identified biases. The paper suggests that the effectiveness of macroprudential policy will largely depend on the existence of clear and robust transparency and accountability arrangements. Accountability arrangements can be used as a vehicle for identifying and addressing potential biases in the macro-prudential framework, in particular, inaction bias. Inclusiveness of the public in the supervisory process in the form of transparency and awareness of the logic behind policy decisions may assist in minimising their potential unpopularity thus promoting their effectiveness. Furthermore, a governance structure which facilitates coordination of the macroprudential supervisor with other policymakers and incorporates outside perspectives and opinions could ‘break-down’ groupthink bias as well as inaction bias.

Keywords: behavioural economics and biases, effectiveness of macroprudential supervision, legal and institutional macroprudential frameworks, macroprudential decision-making process

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Authors: Rahul Paul, Peter Mctaggart, Luke Skinner

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Maintaining public safety and network reliability are the core objectives of all electricity distributors globally. For many electricity distributors, managing vegetation clearances from their above ground assets (poles and conductors) is the most important and costly risk mitigation control employed to meet these objectives. Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) is widely used by utilities as a cost-effective method to inspect their spatially-distributed assets at scale, often captured using high powered LiDAR scanners attached to fixed wing or rotary aircraft. The resulting 3D point cloud model is used by these utilities to perform engineering grade measurements that guide the prioritisation of vegetation cutting programs. Advances in computer vision and machine-learning approaches are increasingly applied to increase automation and reduce inspection costs and time; however, real-world LiDAR capture variables (e.g., aircraft speed and height) create complexity, noise, and missing data, reducing the effectiveness of these approaches. This paper proposes a method for identifying each conductor from LiDAR data via clustering methods that can precisely reconstruct conductors in complex real-world configurations in the presence of high levels of noise. It proposes 3D catenary models for individual clusters fitted to the captured LiDAR data points using a least square method. An iterative learning process is used to identify potential conductor models between pole pairs. The proposed method identifies the optimum parameters of the catenary function and then fits the LiDAR points to reconstruct the conductors.

Keywords: point cloud, LİDAR data, machine learning, computer vision, catenary curve, vegetation management, utility industry

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Authors: Amrashaa Singh

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In the digital age and the large cyberspace, Data Protection and Privacy have become major issues in this technological era. There was a time when social media and online shopping websites were treated as a blessing for the people. But now the tables have turned, and the people have started to look at them with suspicion. They are getting aware of the privacy implications, and they do not feel as safe as they used to initially. When Edward Snowden informed the world about the snooping United States Security Agencies had been doing, that is when the picture became clear for the people. After the Cambridge Analytica case where the data of Facebook users were stored without their consent, the doubts arose in the minds of people about how safe they actually are. In India, the case of spyware Pegasus also raised a lot of concerns. It was used to snoop on a lot of human right activists and lawyers and the company which invented the spyware claims that it only sells it to the government. The paper will be dealing with the privacy concerns in the Indian perspective with an analytical methodology. The Supreme Court here had recently declared a right to privacy a Fundamental Right under Article 21 of the Constitution of India. Further, the Government is also working on the Data Protection Bill. The point to note is that India is still a developing country, and with the bill, the government aims at data localization. But there are doubts in the minds of many people that the Government would actually be snooping on the data of the individuals. It looks more like an attempt to curb dissenters ‘lawfully’. The focus of the paper would be on these issues in India in light of the European Union (EU) General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The Indian Data Protection Bill is also said to be loosely based on EU GDPR. But how helpful would these laws actually be is another concern since the economic and social conditions in both countries are very different? The paper aims at discussing these concerns, how good or bad is the intention of the government behind the bill, and how the nations can act together and draft common regulations so that there is some uniformity in the laws and their application.

Keywords: Article 21, data protection, dissent, fundamental right, India, privacy

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Authors: Enayatollah Yazdani

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Globalization is the most significant change in today’s world. It has caused remarkable growth in different aspects of human life. Such a strong contribution to the development would not have occurred without the role that each country and particularly great powers play in the globalization process. Among those powers is China, whose role in the globalization trend is growing fast. With its rapid economic and technological development, China has moved from a regional economic power to a global powerhouse. Accordingly, China has been supporting the development of global infrastructure through new initiatives and institutions such as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, among them, the most ambitious manifestation of these efforts is China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). BRI is seen as an important vehicle that helps China to play a more proactive role in the globalization process. China started Belt and Road initiative as a global drive in more than 65 (now more than 140) countries in Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America, Africa, and Europe, offering the world a unique state of bigger openness, integration, and interdependence with a comprehensive approach to shared development, shared future, and shared opportunities. As a result, one can say that BRI is an attempt by China to promote international cooperation and enhance globalization. However, in this regard, China may face some challenges as well. This paper aims to address: how China is playing a role in globalization through BRI and how BRI will support the Chinese role in the globalization process. And what are the major challenges that China might be faced? Based on the analytical methodology, the paper argues that BRI is a cornucopia of international projects that offer mammoth opportunities for more economic cooperation and deeper regional and global integration, primarily among emerging economies. The paper discusses that at a time when globalization from the West appears to be in retreat, the BRI is a potent symbol of the rise of China-based globalization.

Keywords: globalization, China, belt, and road initiative

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Authors: Adeola Ibukunoluwa Samuel, Afsoon Kazerouni

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Industrial mineral kaolin has many favourable properties such as colour, shape, softness, non-abrasiveness, natural whiteness, as well as chemical stability. It occurs extensively in North of Bedford road Grahamstown, South Africa. The relationship between both the physical and chemical properties as lead to its application in the production of certain industrial products which are used by the public; this includes the prospect of production of paper, ceramics, rubber, paint, and plastics. Despite its interesting economic potentials, kaolinite clay mineral remains undermined, and this is threatening its sustainability in the mineral industry. This research study focuses on a detailed evaluation of the kaolinite mineral and possible ways to increase its lifespan in the industry. The methods employed for this study includes petrographic microscopy analysis, X-ray powder diffraction analysis (XRD), and proper field reconnaissance survey. Results emanating from this research include updated geological information on Grahamstown. Also, mineral transformation phases such as quartz, kaolinite, calcite and muscovite were identified in the clay samples. Petrographic analysis of the samples showed that the study area has been subjected to intense tectonic deformation and cement replacement. Also, different dissolution patterns were identified on the Grahamstown kaolinitic clay deposits. Hence incorporating analytical studies and data interpretations, possible ways such as the establishment of processing refinery near mining plants, which will, in turn, provide employment for the locals and land reclamation is suggested. In addition, possible future sustainable industrial applications of the clay minerals seem to be possible if additives, cellulosic wastes are used to alter the clay mineral.

Keywords: kaolinite, industrial use, sustainability, Grahamstown, clay minerals

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Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

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Authors: Ogbuagu Josephat Okechukwu, Okeke Abuchi Princewill, Arinze Rosemary Uche, Tabugbo Ifeyinwa Blessing, Ogbuagu Adaora Stellamaris

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Phthalates or Phthalate esters (PAEs), categorized as an endocrine disruptor and persistent organic pollutants, are known for their environmental contamination and toxicological effects. In this study, the concentration of selected phthalates was determined across the sampling site to investigate their occurrence and the ecological and health risk assessment they pose to the environment. Water and sediment samples were collected following standard procedures. Solid phase and ultrasonic methods were used to extract seven different PAEs, which were analyzed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Detector (GCMS). The analytical average recovery was found to be within the range of 83.4% ± 2.3%. The results showed that PAEs were detected in six out of seven samples with a high percentage of detection rate in water. Di-n-butyl phthalate (DPB) and disobutyl phthalates (DiBP) showed a greater detection rate compared to other PAE monomers. The concentration of PEs was found to be higher in sediment samples compared to water samples due to the fact that sediments serve as a sink for most persistent organic pollutants. The concentrations of PAEs in water samples and sediments ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 mg/kg and 0.00 to 0.028 mg/l, respectively. Ecological risk assessment using the risk quotient method (RQ) reveals that the estimated environmental risk caused by phthalates lies within the moderate level as RQ ranges from 0.1 to 1.0, whereas the health risk assessment caused by phthalates on estimating the average daily dose reveals that the ingestion of phthalates was found to be approaching permissible limit which can cause serious carcinogenic occurrence in the human system with time due to excess accumulation.

Keywords: phthalates, endocrine disruptor, risk assessment, ecological risk, health risk

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Authors: Hamad Albadr

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With the growth that has occurred in the orientation of universities from liability cognitive and maintain the culture of the community to liability functional creating graduates to work according to the needs of the community development; representing the university in today's world, the prime mover of the wheel of development in the community and find appropriate solutions to the problems they are facing and adapt to the demands of the changing environment. This paper deals with the role of Saudi universities as institutions, government agencies, non-governmental organizations and the extent of its responsibility to the environmental awareness of the community members in various segments, where it will use the research methodology descriptive and analytical, to gather information, data and analysis answers the study sample consisting of 1500 people from the staff of the Saudi universities: The members of the faculty, and members of the administrative and technical bodies, and current students, 500 of them are responsible for employment in the labor sector and graduates. Where will review the paper to identify the extent to which the objectives of the academic programs in Saudi universities to the needs of the community, and the extent to which the course content submitted to the characteristics of the local environment for the community and how he benefited them to ensure its conformity with the changing needs of society, and how to address the research presented in academic programs to the needs of society and its problems , and the extent to which graduate students to deal enough of social responsibility and commitment to community service and the preservation of the environment, and the availability of a clear policy to serve the community with the academic programs, and how to encourage faculty, staff and students to participate in community service. And the availability of counseling services for school students for vocational guidance, scientific, environmental, and the contribution of Academic Programs publishes scientific and technical culture and the environmental community members.

Keywords: universities in Saudi Arabia, environmental awareness, academic programs, environmental community

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Authors: Abdolhamid Anazadehsayed, Jamal Naser

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An integrated computational fluid dynamics model is developed for a combined simulation of Plateau borders, films, and transitional areas between the film and the Plateau borders to reduce the simplifications and shortcomings of available models for foam drainage in micro-scale. Additionally, the counter-flow related to the Marangoni effect in the transitional area is investigated. The results of this combined model show the contribution of the films, the exterior Plateau borders, and Marangoni flow in the drainage process more accurately since the inter-influence of foam's elements is included in this study. The exterior Plateau borders flow rate can be four times larger than the interior ones. The exterior bubbles can be more prominent in the drainage process in cases where the number of the exterior Plateau borders increases due to the geometry of container. The ratio of the Marangoni counter-flow to the Plateau border flow increases drastically with an increase in the mobility of air-liquid interface. However, the exterior bubbles follow the same trend with much less intensity since typically, the flow is less dependent on the interface of air-liquid in the exterior bubbles. Moreover, the Marangoni counter-flow in a near-wall transition area is less important than an internal one. The influence of air-liquid interface mobility on the average velocity of interior foams is attained with more accuracy with more realistic boundary condition. Then it has been compared with other numerical and analytical results. The contribution of films in the drainage is significant for the mobile foams as the velocity of flow in the film has the same order of magnitude as the velocity in the Plateau border. Nevertheless, for foams with rigid interfaces, film's contribution in foam drainage is insignificant, particularly for the films near the wall of the container.

Keywords: foam, plateau border, film, Marangoni, CFD, bubble

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Authors: Raquel Amanda Villamizar Gallardo, Oscar Orlando Ortíz Rodríguez

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Enteric viruses are cosmopolitan agents present in several environments including water. These viruses can cause different diseases including gastroenteritis, hepatitis, conjunctivitis, respiratory problems among others. Although in Colombia there are not regulations concerning to routine viral analysis of drinking water, an enhanced understanding of viral pollution and resistance to treatments is desired in order to assure pure water to the population. Viral detection is often complex due to the need of specialized and time-consuming procedures. In addition, viruses are highly diluted in water which is a drawback from the analytical point of view. To this end, a fast and selective detection method for detection enteric viruses (i.e. Hepatitis A and Rotavirus) were applied. Micro- magnetic particles were functionalized with monoclonal antibodies anti-Hepatitis and anti-Rotavirus and they were used to capture, concentrate and separate whole viral particles in raw water and drinking water samples from four treatment plants identified as CAR-01, MON-02, POR-03, TON-04 and located in the Northeastern Colombia. Viruses were molecularly by using RT-PCR One Step Superscript III. Each plant was analyzed at the entry and exit points, in order to determine the initial presence and eventual reduction of Hepatitis A and Rotavirus after disinfection. The results revealed the presence of both enteric viruses in a 100 % of raw water analyzed in all plants. This represents a potential health hazard, especially for those people whose use this water for agricultural purposes. However, in drinking water analysis, enteric viruses was only positive in CAR-01, where was found the presence of Rotavirus. As a conclusion, the results confirm Rotavirus as the best indicator to evaluate the efficacy of potable treatment plant in eliminating viruses. CAR potable water plant should improve their disinfection process in order to remove efficiently enteric viruses.

Keywords: drinking water, hepatitis A, rotavirus, virus removal

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa

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In the area of the oil industry, there is accompanied by associated natural gas. The thing shows that a large amount of energy is being wasted mostly in the developing countries by contributing to the global warming process. This research represents an overview of methods in Minas area employed by these researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia to determine ways of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission drastically. It provides an approximation includes analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, computer simulations, etc. Flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process will release emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the air and environment around the industrial area. Therefore, we need a simulation to create the pattern of the dissemination of pollutant. This research paper has being made to see trends in gas flaring model and current developments to predict dominant variable which gives impact to dissemination of pollutant. Fluent models used to simulate the distribution of pollutant gas coming out of the stack. While WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. This study condition focused on transition season in 2012 at Minas area. The goal of the simulation is looking for the exact time which is most influence towards dissemination of pollutants. The most influence factor divided into two main subjects. It is the quickest wind and the slowest wind. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that quickest wind moves to horizontal way and slowest wind moves to vertical way.

Keywords: flaring system, fluent model, dissemination of pollutant, transition season

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Authors: Yousef M. Al-Roomi, Kaneez Fatema Hussain

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This work evaluates the thermal degradation kinetic parameters of CaSO₄-complex isolated after the inhibition effect of maleic-anhydride based polymer (YMR-polymers). Pyrolysis experiments were carried out at four heating rates (5, 10, 15 and 20°C/min). Several analytical model-free methods were used to determine the kinetic parameters, including Friedman, Coats and Redfern, Kissinger, Flynn-Wall-Ozawa and Kissinger-Akahira–Sunose methods. The Criado model fitting method based on real mechanism followed in thermal degradation of the complex has been applied to explain the degradation mechanism of CaSO₄-complex. In addition, a simple dynamic model was proposed over two temperature ranges for successive decomposition of CaSO₄-complex which has a combination of organic and inorganic part (adsorbed polymer + CaSO₄.2H₂O scale). The model developed enabled the assessment of pre-exponential factor (A) and apparent activation-energy (Eₐ) for both stages independently using a mathematical developed expression based on an integral solution. The unique reaction mechanism approach applied in this study showed that (Eₐ₁-160.5 kJ/mole) for organic decomposition (adsorbed polymer stage-I) has been lower than Eₐ₂-388 kJ/mole for the CaSO₄ decomposition (inorganic stage-II). Further adsorbed YMR-antiscalant not only reduced the decomposition temperature of CaSO₄-complex compared to CaSO₄-blank (CaSO₄.2H₂O scales in the absence of YMR-polymer) but also distorted the crystal lattice of the organic complex of CaSO₄ precipitates, destroying their compact and regular crystal structures observed from XRD and SEM studies.

Keywords: CaSO₄-complex, maleic-anhydride polymers, thermal degradation kinetics and mechanism, XRD and SEM studies

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Ishfaq Ahmad, Yejuan Wang, Muhammad Salam

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Distribution models of the wind speed data are essential to assess the potential wind speed energy because it decreases the uncertainty to estimate wind energy output. Therefore, before performing a detailed potential energy analysis, the precise distribution model for data relating to wind speed must be found. In this research, material from numerous criteria goodness-of-fits, such as Kolmogorov Simonov, Anderson Darling statistics, Chi-Square, root mean square error (RMSE), AIC and BIC were combined finally to determine the wind speed of the best-fitted distribution. The suggested method collectively makes each criterion. This method was useful in a circumstance to fitting 14 distribution models statistically with the data of wind speed together at four sites in Pakistan. The consequences show that this method provides the best source for selecting the most suitable wind speed statistical distribution. Also, the graphical representation is consistent with the analytical results. This research presents three estimation methods that can be used to calculate the different distributions used to estimate the wind. In the suggested MLM, MOM, and MLE the third-order moment used in the wind energy formula is a key function because it makes an important contribution to the precise estimate of wind energy. In order to prove the presence of the suggested MOM, it was compared with well-known estimation methods, such as the method of linear moment, and maximum likelihood estimate. In the relative analysis, given to several goodness-of-fit, the presentation of the considered techniques is estimated on the actual wind speed evaluated in different time periods. The results obtained show that MOM certainly provides a more precise estimation than other familiar approaches in terms of estimating wind energy based on the fourteen distributions. Therefore, MOM can be used as a better technique for assessing wind energy.

Keywords: wind-speed modeling, goodness of fit, maximum likelihood method, linear moment

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Authors: Shashank Bahri, Divyanshu Arya, Rajni Jain, Sreedevi Upadhyayula

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Petroleum products can be obtained from syngas catalytic conversion using Fischer Tropsch Reaction. The liquid fuels obtained from FTS are sulphur and nitrogen free and thus may easily meet the increasing stringent environment regulations. In the present work we have synthesized Meso porous ZSM-5 supported catalyst. Meso structure were created in H-ZSM-5 crystallites by demetalation via subsequent base and acid treatment. Desilication through base treatment provides H-ZSM-5 with pore size and volumes similar to amorphous SiO2 (Conventional Carrier). Modifying the zeolite texture and surface chemistry by Desilication and acid washing alters its accessibility and interactions with metal phase and consequently the CO adsorption behavior and hydrocarbon product distribution. Increasing the mesoporosity via desilication provides the micro porous zeolite with essential surface area to support optimally sized metal crystallites. This improves the metal dispersion and hence improve the activity of the catalyst. Transition metal (Co) was loaded using wet impregnation method. Synthesized catalysts were characterized by Infrared Spectroscopy, Powdered X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), BET Method analytical techniques. Acidity of the catalyst which plays an important role in FTS reaction was measured by DRIFT setup pyridine adsorption instead of NH3 Temperature Programmed Desorption. The major difference is that, Pyridine Adsorption can distinguish between Lewis acidity and Bronsted Acidity, thus giving their relative strengths in the catalyst sample, whereas TPD gives total acidity including Lewis and Bronsted ones.

Keywords: mesopourus, fischer tropsch reaction, pyridine adsorrption, drift study

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, analytic hierarchical process

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Baladitya Swaika, Rahul Khatry

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Computer Adaptive Tests (CATs) is one of the most efficient ways for testing the cognitive abilities of students. CATs are based on Item Response Theory (IRT) which is based on item selection and ability estimation using statistical methods of maximum information selection/selection from posterior and maximum-likelihood (ML)/maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators respectively. This study aims at combining both classical and Bayesian approaches to IRT to create a dataset which is then fed to a neural network which automates the process of ability estimation and then comparing it to traditional CAT models designed using IRT. This study uses python as the base coding language, pymc for statistical modelling of the IRT and scikit-learn for neural network implementations. On creation of the model and on comparison, it is found that the Neural Network based model performs 7-10% worse than the IRT model for score estimations. Although performing poorly, compared to the IRT model, the neural network model can be beneficially used in back-ends for reducing time complexity as the IRT model would have to re-calculate the ability every-time it gets a request whereas the prediction from a neural network could be done in a single step for an existing trained Regressor. This study also proposes a new kind of framework whereby the neural network model could be used to incorporate feature sets, other than the normal IRT feature set and use a neural network’s capacity of learning unknown functions to give rise to better CAT models. Categorical features like test type, etc. could be learnt and incorporated in IRT functions with the help of techniques like logistic regression and can be used to learn functions and expressed as models which may not be trivial to be expressed via equations. This kind of a framework, when implemented would be highly advantageous in psychometrics and cognitive assessments. This study gives a brief overview as to how neural networks can be used in adaptive testing, not only by reducing time-complexity but also by being able to incorporate newer and better datasets which would eventually lead to higher quality testing.

Keywords: computer adaptive tests, item response theory, machine learning, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Said Benaissa, David Plets, Emmeric Tanghe, Jens Trogh, Luc Martens, Leen Vandaele, Annelies Van Nuffel, Frank A. M. Tuyttens, Bart Sonck, Wout Joseph

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The herd monitoring and managing - in particular the detection of ‘attention animals’ that require care, treatment or assistance is crucial for effective reproduction status, health, and overall well-being of dairy cows. In large sized farms, traditional methods based on direct observation or analysis of video recordings become labour-intensive and time-consuming. Thus, automatic monitoring systems using sensors have become increasingly important to continuously and accurately track the health status of dairy cows. Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) and internet-of-things (IoT) can be effectively used in health tracking of dairy cows to facilitate herd management and enhance the cow welfare. Since on-cow measuring devices are energy-constrained, a proper characterization of the off-body wireless channel between the on-cow sensor nodes and the back-end base station is required for a power-optimized deployment of these networks in barns. The aim of this study was to characterize the off-body wireless channel in indoor (barns) environment at 868 MHz using LoRa nodes. LoRa is an emerging wireless technology mainly targeted at WSNs and IoT networks. Both large scale fading (i.e., path loss) and temporal fading were investigated. The obtained path loss values as a function of the transmitter-receiver separation were well fitted by a lognormal path loss model. The path loss showed an additional increase of 4 dB when the wireless node was actually worn by the cow. The temporal fading due to movement of other cows was well described by Rician distributions with a K-factor of 8.5 dB. Based on this characterization, network planning and energy consumption optimization of the on-body wireless nodes could be performed, which enables the deployment of reliable dairy cow monitoring systems.

Keywords: channel, channel modelling, cow monitoring, dairy cows, health monitoring, IoT, LoRa, off-body propagation, PLF, propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Zeinabossadat Hosseini, Fateme Qorbani

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The universal community has suffered from the lack of a sustainable and prosperous civilization in the world, and human distance from religious doctrines exposes the civilization of society to decline and collapse. To build a sustainable Islamic civilization, it is essential to understand and strengthen the core foundations of this subject. Islam, which claims to be integral in ensuring human prosperity and the creation of a new Islamic civilization, it can only develop this civilization if it has the necessary foundations. On the other hand, the family is one of the most important and effective foundations for effective individual and community life, and according to the influential role of the family on human behavioral and cognitive domains, it is impossible to define and explain the development of Islamic civilization without regard to the family category. The family can be effective in this important matter through its direct and indirect role in the education of individuals, and its members have the highest interaction and impact on each other. Development of the teachings of Islam in the form of verses and traditions can guide people towards the Islamic lifestyle and thus Islamic civilization and the Pure life (Tayyibah life-Al-Nahl/97). This article provides a descriptive-analytical approach to the conclusion that modern Islamic civilization promises the prosperity of the world and the hereafter. It will bring peace and prosperity to the world as well as advancement, fight against poverty, unity, and solidarity of Muslims, preservation of human dignity, as well as the growth of spirituality. It can also be deduced that the foundations of Islamic civilization in Qur'anic Tayyibah life and in today's term, the Islamic lifestyle, can be identified and implemented in the family structure, And the components of this blissful life can be found in this focus. The Tayyibah life will be realized by relying on the right faith and practice, paying attention to the rulings, divine command mentioned in the verses, as well as the traditions, altruism, nurturing a commitment to the community.

Keywords: family, development of modern Islamic civilization, quranic lifestyle, Tayyibah life

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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The economic growth and the special model of development in China have caused sensitivity in the public opinion of the world regarding the nature of this growth and development. In this regard, the Chinese have tried to put an end to such alarming procedures by using all the tools at their disposal and seek to present a peaceful and cooperative image of themselves. In this way, one of the most important diplomatic tools that Beijing has used to reduce the concerns caused by the Threat Theory has been the use of soft power resources and its tools in its development policies. This article begins by analyzing the concept of soft power and examining its foundations in international relations, and continues to examine the components of soft power in its Chinese version. The main purpose of the article is to figure out about the position of West Asia in China's soft power strategy and resources China use to achieve its goals in this region. In response to the main question, the paper's hypothesis is that soft power in its Chinese version had significant differences from Joseph Nye's original idea. In fact, the Chinese have imported the American version of soft power and adjusted, strengthened and, in other words, internalized it with their abilities, capacities and political philosophy. Based on this, China's software presence in West Asia can be traced in three areas. The first source of China's soft power in this region of West Asia is cultural in nature and is realized through strategies such as "use of educational tools and methods", "media methods" and "tourism industry". The second source is related to political soft power, which is applied through the policy of "balance of influence" and the policy of "mediation" and relying on the "ideological foundations of Confucianism". The third source also refers to China's economic soft power and is realized through three tools: "energy exchanges", "foreign investments" and "Belt-Road initiative". The research method of this article is descriptive-analytical.

Keywords: soft power, cooperative power, china, west asia

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: João F. A. Martos, Felipe J. Costa, Sergio N. P. Laiton, Bruno C. Lima, Israel S. Rêgo, Paulo P. G. Toro

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Nowadays, the scramjet is a topic that has attracted the attention of several scientific communities (USA, Australia, Germany, France, Japan, India, China, Russia), that are investing in this in this type of propulsion system due its interest to facilitate access to space and reach hypersonic speed, who have invested in this type of propulsion due to the interest in facilitating access to space. The Brazilian hypersonic scramjet aerospace vehicle 14-X B is a technological demonstrator of a hypersonic airbreathing propulsion system based on the supersonic combustion (scramjet) intended to be tested in flight into the Earth's atmosphere at 30 km altitude and Mach number 7. The 14-X B has been designed at the Prof. Henry T. Nagamatsu Laboratory of Aerothermodynamics and Hypersonics of the Institute for Advanced Studies (IEAv) in Brazil. The IEAv Hypersonic Shock Tunnel, named T3, is a ground-test facility able to reproduce the flight conditions as the Mach number as well as pressure and temperature in the test section close to those encountered during the test flight of the vehicle 14-X B into design conditions. A 1-m long stainless steel 14-X B model was experimentally investigated at T3 Hypersonic Shock Tunnel, for freestream Mach number 7. Static pressure measurements along the lower surface of the 14-X B model, along with high-speed schlieren photographs taken from the 5.5° leading edge and the 14.5° deflection compression ramp, provided experimental data that were compared to the analytical-theoretical solutions and the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The results show a good qualitative agreement, and in consequence demonstrating the importance of these methods in the project of the 14-X B hypersonic aerospace vehicle.

Keywords: 14-X, CFD, hypersonic, hypersonic shock tunnel, scramjet

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: Nicholas Bayfield, Liam Bibo, Charley Budgeon, Robert Larbalestier, Tom Briffa

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Introduction: Stress hyperglycaemia is common following cardiac surgery. Its optimal management is uncertain and may differ by diabetic status. This study assesses the in-hospital glycaemic management of cardiac surgery patients and associated postoperative outcomes. Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis of all patients undergoing cardiac surgery at Fiona Stanley Hospital from February 2015 to May 2019 was undertaken. Management and outcomes of hyperglycaemia following cardiac surgery were assessed. Follow-up was assessed to 1 year postoperatively. Multivariate regression modelling was utilised. Results: 1050 non-diabetic patients and 689 diabetic patients were included. In the non-diabetic cohort, patients with mild (peak blood sugar level [BSL] < 14.3), transient stress hyperglycaemia managed without insulin were not at an increased risk of wound-related morbidity (P=0.899) or mortality at 1 year (P=0.483). Insulin management was associated with wound-related readmission to hospital (P=0.004) and superficial sternal wound infection (P=0.047). Prolonged or severe stress hyperglycaemia was predictive of hospital re-admission (P=0.050) but not morbidity or mortality (P=0.546). Diabetes mellitus was an independent risk factor 1-year mortality (OR; 1.972 [1.041–3.736], P=0.037), graft harvest site wound infection (OR; 1.810 [1.134–2.889], P=0.013) and wound-related readmission (OR; 1.866 [1.076–3.236], P=0.026). In diabetics, postoperative peak BSL > 13.9mmol/L was predictive of graft harvest site infections (OR; 3.528 [1.724-7.217], P=0.001) and wound-related readmission OR; 3.462 [1.540-7.783], P=0.003) regardless of modality of management. A peak BSL of 10.0-13.9 did not increase the risk of morbidity/mortality compared to a peak BSL of < 10.0 (P=0.557). Diabetics with a peak BSL of 13.9 or less did not have significantly increased morbidity/mortality outcomes compared to non-diabetics (P=0.418). Conclusion: In non-diabetic patients, transient mild stress hyperglycaemia following cardiac surgery does not uniformly require treatment. In diabetic patients, postoperative hyperglycaemia with peak BSL exceeding 13.9mmol/L was associated with wound-related morbidity and hospital readmission following cardiac surgery.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, pulmonary embolism, pulmonary embolectomy, cardiopulmonary bypass

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Rafael Muñoz, Juan Melchor, Alicia Valera, Laura Peralta, Guillermo Rus

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A torsional piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer design is proposed to measure shear moduli in soft tissue with direct access availability, using shear wave elastography technique. The measurement of shear moduli of tissues is a challenging problem, mainly derived from a) the difficulty of isolating a pure shear wave, given the interference of multiple waves of different types (P, S, even guided) emitted by the transducers and reflected in geometric boundaries, and b) the highly attenuating nature of soft tissular materials. An immediate application, overcoming these drawbacks, is the measurement of changes in cervix stiffness to estimate the gestational age at delivery. The design has been optimized using a finite element model (FEM) and a semi-analytical estimator of the probability of detection (POD) to determine a suitable geometry, materials and generated waves. The technique is based on the time of flight measurement between emitter and receiver, to infer shear wave velocity. Current research is centered in prototype testing and validation. The geometric optimization of the transducer was able to annihilate the compressional wave emission, generating a quite pure shear torsional wave. Currently, mechanical and electromagnetic coupling between emitter and receiver signals are being the research focus. Conclusions: the design overcomes the main described problems. The almost pure shear torsional wave along with the short time of flight avoids the possibility of multiple wave interference. This short propagation distance reduce the effect of attenuation, and allow the emission of very low energies assuring a good biological security for human use.

Keywords: cervix ripening, preterm birth, shear modulus, shear wave elastography, soft tissue, torsional wave

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

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From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Somayeh Bahrami, Seyed Jalal Dehghani Firoozabadi

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Environmental governance is an interdisciplinary concept in political ecology and environmental policy focusing on the necessity of embedding the environmental issues in all levels of decision-making and act of states. Similar to sustainable development the concept of environmental governance believes that economic and political life of societies and countries need to be considered as a subset of the environment. This concept has been accepted by North Countries, those that have done the most irreparable environmental damage since the Industrial Revolution. Although North Countries are more responsible for damage to the environment, considering the global fluidity logic of environmental challenges, such an impression doesn’t cause developing countries to disavow responsibility for regional and international cooperation to protect the environment. Establishing an environmental governance at all levels of local, national, regional and global is one of the most significant ways to improve sustainable development. Given to the various political and economic difficulties developing countries including the Middle East face, building environmental governance in these countries is difficult but feasible, as these difficulties have not impeded their mutual partnership for confronting joint environmental issues. However, the environmental issues wouldn’t be solved only by mutual partnership but by establishing environmental governance, establishing regional environmental institutions (an introduction to building Regional Environmental Governance) and delegation of some environmental authorities to the mentioned institutions. The research is aimed at examining necessities, opportunities, and barriers to establishing Regional Environmental Governance in the Middle East. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the question of whether establishing Regional Environmental Governance is possible in the Middle East and if so then why. This study used descriptive-analytical methods and the inferential methodology has been used to reach the goals. Data has been collected by using library and internet sources as well as news sources on the basis of objective-historical data.

Keywords: environmental democracy (ED), environmental governance (EG), middle east (ME), regional environmental governance (REG)

Procedia PDF Downloads 456

Authors: Syed Muhammad Basit Ali, Usama Saleem, Irtiza Ali

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Internal combustion engines have been pioneers in the aviation industry, use of piston engines for aircraft propulsion, from propeller-driven bi-planes to turbo-prop, commercial, and cargo airliners. To provide an adequate amount of thrust piston engine rotates the propeller at a specific rpm, allowing enough mass airflow. Thrust is the only forward-acting force of an aircraft that helps heavier than air bodies to fly, depending on the mathematical model and variables included in that with the correct measurement. Test-benches have been a bench-mark in the aerospace industry to analyse the results before a flight, having paramount significance in reliability and safety engineering, depending on the mathematical model and variables included in that with the correct measurement. Calculation of thrust from a piston engine also depends on environmental changes, the diameter of the propeller, and the density of air. The project would be centered on piston engines used in the aviation industry for light aircraft and UAVs. A static thrust test bench involves various units, each performing a designed purpose to monitor and display. Static thrust tests are performed on the ground, and safety concerns hold paramount importance. The execution of this study involves research, design, manufacturing, and results based on reverse engineering initiating from virtual design, analytical analysis, and simulations. The final evaluation of results gathered from various methods such as co-relation between conventional mass-spring and digital loadcell. On average, we received 17.5kg of thrust (25+ engine run-ups – around 40 hours of engine run), only 10% deviation from analytically calculated thrust –providing 90% accuracy.

Keywords: aviation, aeronautics, static thrust, test bench, aircraft maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 410