Search results for: caries risk assessment

Authors: Elham Abbas Aljaaly, Nahlaa Abdulwahab Khalifa

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The active method of disease prevention is seen as the most affordable and sustainable action to deal with risks of non-communicable diseases such as obesity. This eight-week project aimed to pilot the feasibility and acceptability of a school-based programme, which is proposed to prevent and modify overweight status and possible related risk factors among student girls 'at the intermediate level' in Jeddah city. The programme was conducted through comprehensible approach targeting physical environment and school policies (nutritional/exercise/behavioural approach). The programme was designed to cultivate the personal and environmental awareness in schools for girls. This was applied by promoting healthy eating and physical activity through policies, physical education, healthier options for school canteens, and the creation of school health teams. The prevention programme was applied on 68 students (who agreed to participate) from grades 7th, 8th and 9th. A pre and post assessment questionnaire was employed on 66 students. The questionnaires were designed to obtain information on students' knowledge about health, nutrition and physical activity. Survey questions included information about nutrients, food consumption patterns, food intake and lifestyle. Physical education included training sessions for new opportunities for physical activities to be performed during school or after school hours. A running competition 'to enhance students’ performance for physical activities' was also conducted during the school visit. A visit to the school canteen was conducted to check, observe, record and assess all available food/beverage items and meals. The assessment method was a subjective method for the type of food/beverages if high in saturated fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) or non-HFSS. The school canteen administrators were encouraged to provide healthy food/beverage items and a sample healthy canteen was provided for implementation. Two healthy options were introduced to the school canteen. A follow up for students’ preferences for the introduced options and the purchasing power were assessed. Thirty-eight percent of young girls (n=26) were not participating in any form of physical activities inside or outside school. Skipping breakfast was stated by 42% (n=28) of students with no daily consumption (19%, n=13) for fruit/vegetables. Significant changes were noticed in students’ (n=66) overall responses to the pre and post questions (P value=.001). All students had participated in the conducted running competition sessions and reported satisfaction and enjoyment about the sessions. No absence was reported by the research team for attending physical education and activity sessions throughout the delivered programme. The purchasing power of the introduced healthy options of 'Salad and oatmeal' was increased to 18% in 8 weeks at the school canteen, and slightly affected the purchase for other less healthy options. The piloted programme indorsed better health and nutrition knowledge, healthy eating and lifestyle attitude, which could help young girls to obtain sustainable changes. It is expected that the outcomes of the programme will be a cornerstone for the futuristic national study that will assist policy makers and participants to build a knowledgeable health promotion scenario and make sure that school students have access to healthy foods, physical exercise and healthy lifestyle.

Keywords: adolescents, diet, exercise, behaviours, overweight/obesity, prevention-intervention programme, Saudi Arabia, schoolgirls

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Jeanne Grace, Shereen Currie

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Background: Obesity associated comorbidities increase the risk of morbidity and mortality among employees in the workplace. Objectives: The study aimed to determine the prevalence of obesity and comorbidities like diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia associated with obesity within the workplace in South Africa. Methods: A total of 17359 male (n = 8561) and female (n = 8798) employees, aged between 18-64 years (40.8 ± 11.0), from various corporate and industrial companies in South Africa participated in the study. Subjects were assigned to one of five body mass index (BMI) categories, according to their BMI: normal weight, BMI of 18.5‒24.9 kg/m² (n = 7338); overweight, BMI of 25.0‒29.9 kg/m² (n = 6323); obese class I, BMI of 30.0-34.9 kg/m² (n = 2552); obese class II, BMI of 35.0-39.9 kg/m² (n = 782); and obese class III, BMI of ≥ 40 kg/m² (n = 364). Height, weight, blood pressure, random blood glucose, and total cholesterol were measured. Results: The prevalence of normal weight men was 29.2% and women 55.0%; overweight men 46.4% and women 26.7%, obese men 24.4% and women 18.3%. A significant association (p<0.01) of BMI with diabetes, systolic and diastolic hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia were noted. Conclusion: Obesity is strongly associated with adverse comorbidities that may impact employees’ quality of life and performance. If unaddressed, it can increase comorbidities, not only affecting the bottom line of companies but causing morbidity and mortality, including sudden death.

Keywords: body mass index, cholesterol, blood glucose, workplace

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Authors: Jennifer Hunter, Francisco Ramirez, Neil A. Nedley, Thania Solorio, Christian Freed, Erica Kinjo

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People who have autoimmune disease are often at an increased risk for psychological disorders such as anxiety. Untreated psychological conditions can affect the development of disease and can affect one’s general quality of life. In this study, it was hypothesized that an educational community-based intervention would be useful in decreasing the anxiety levels of participants with autoimmune disease. Programs, 2-hours long each, were held weekly over a period of eight weeks. During every meeting, a 45-minute DVD presentation by a skilled physician was shown, a small group discussion was guided by trained facilitators, and weekly practical assignments were given to each participant. The focus of the program was to educate participants about healthy lifestyle behaviors such as exercise, nutrition, sleep hygiene, helpful thought patterns etc., and to provide a group environment in which each participant was supported. Participants were assessed pre-post program for anxiety using the Depression and Anxiety Assessment Test (registration TX 7-398-022), a validated mental health test based on DSM-5 criteria and demographics. Anxiety scores were classified according to the DSM-5 criteria into 4 categories: none (0-6), mild (7-10), moderate (11-19) or severe (20 or more). Out of the participants who participated in programs conducted in the manner explained above (n=431), the average age was 54.9 (SD 16.6) and 81.9% were female. At baseline, the mean group anxiety level was 9.4 (SD 5.4). Within the baseline group, anxiety levels were as follows: none (21.1%), mild (22.0%), moderate (27.1%) and severe (29.7%). After the program, mean group anxiety decreased to 4.7 (SD 4.0). Post-program anxiety levels were as follows: none (54.8%), mild (27.1%), moderate (12.5%), severe (5.6%). The decrease in overall anxiety levels was significant t(431)=19.3 p<.001, 95% CI [0.815, 1.041]. It was concluded that the eight-week intensive was beneficial in decreasing the anxiety levels of participants. A long-term follow-up study would be beneficial in determining how lasting such improvements are especially since autoimmune diseases are often chronic. Additionally, future studies that utilize a control group would aid in establishing whether the improvements seen are due to the use of this specific lifestyle-educational program.

Keywords: anxiety, auto-immune disease, community-based educational program, lifestyle

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Authors: Roop Kiran, Muhammad Shoaib Zafar, Nazish Idrees Chaudhary

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Depression is known to be the second most frequently occurring comorbid mental illness among patients suffering from chronic physical conditions. Around the world, depression is associated with chronic liver diseases as one of the dominant symptoms. This evidence brings attention to the research about various predictors for short life expectancy and poor quality of life in patients suffering from comorbid depression and CLD. Following are the objectives of this study i) measure the occurrence rate of comorbid depression among patients with CLD and ii) find the frequency of risk factors between patients with and without depression comorbid with CLD. This is a quantitative study with a cross-sectional design. The research data was collected through a measure called Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) with a demographic Performa from 100 patients who visited the Department of Psychiatry for consultation at Mayo Hospital Lahore with a diagnosed CLD from the last four years. There were (42%) patients with CLD who had comorbid depression. Among depressed and non-depressed patients, significant differences were found (p<0.05) for unemployment in 25 (59.5%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients, for co-morbidity in 25 (59.5%) males and 18 (31.0%) female patients, for illiteracy in 18 (42.9%) males and 13 (22.4%) female patients, for the history of CLD for more than the last 2years in 41 (97.6%) males and 47 (81.0%) female patients, for severity of CLD in 26 (61.9%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients. This concludes that depression frequently occurs among patients with CLD. This study recommends considerable attention to plan preventative measures in the future and develop such intervention protocols that consider the management of risk factors that significantly influence comorbid depression with CLD.

Keywords: psychiatry, comorbid, health, quality of life

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Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

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In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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Authors: Ioanna Koumi

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The aim of the intervention presented is to show the positive effects a mindfulness programme can have on the behaviour of preschoolers (years 4-6). The programme was implemented as part of the psychologist's work in 5 preschool units on the Greek island of Chios. Classroom-based activities of mindfulness were shown and practiced in 5 sessions, in collaboration with teachers, in order to make preschoolers aware of how their brain affects their behaviour, as well as of how they can have more positive behaviours, especially in instances of negative feelings. The outcomes of the intervention were assessed via questionnaire completion before and after the sessions by the teachers, as well as focus groups procedures with students, teachers, and parents. Implications of how mindfulness programmes can also be implemented at home are further discussed. School year in which the programme is being implemented: 2022-23 Intervention method: based on basic mindfulness theory and practice, the 220 students (age 4-6) in 11 classes of the 5 preschools that participated were given lessons of how to become aware of their states of focusing, regulation, attention, emotional situation, as well as body and social situations. Furthermore, the preschoolers were encouraged to make more mindful choices when it came to negative situations and emotions. Assessment method: The school as a caring community Profile II – Questionnaire completed by 20 preschool teachers prior to and after the intervention, Focus group sessions with teachers, students, parents at the end of the intervention Results: the assessment will be completed in May 2023.

Keywords: preschool, mindfulness training, self-awareness, social-emotional development

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Authors: Eric Dede, Marcus Tindall, John W. Cherrie, Steve Hankin, Christopher Collins

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Current exposure models used in contaminated land risk assessment are highly conservative. Use of these models may lead to over-estimation of actual exposures, possibly resulting in negative financial implications due to un-necessary remediation. Thus, we are carrying out a study seeking to improve our understanding of human exposure to selected toxic elements in soil: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) resulting from allotment land-use. The study employs biomonitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling to quantify human exposure to these elements. We recruited 37 allotment users (adults > 18 years old) in Scotland, UK, to participate in the study. Concentrations of the elements (and their bioaccessibility) were measured in allotment samples (soil and allotment produce). Amount of produce consumed by the participants and participants’ biological samples (urine and blood) were collected for up to 12 consecutive months. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Reading Research Ethics Committee. PBPK models (coded in MATLAB) were used to estimate the distribution and accumulation of the elements in key body compartments, thus indicating the internal body burden. Simulating low element intake (based on estimated ‘doses’ from produce consumption records), predictive models suggested that detection of these elements in urine and blood was possible within a given period of time following exposure. This information was used in planning biomonitoring, and is currently being used in the interpretation of test results from biological samples. Evaluation of the models is being carried out using biomonitoring data, by comparing model predicted concentrations and measured biomarker concentrations. The PBPK models will be used to generate bioavailability values, which could be incorporated in contaminated land exposure models. Thus, the findings from this study will promote a more sustainable approach to contaminated land management.

Keywords: biomonitoring, exposure, PBPK modelling, toxic elements

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Authors: Athdath Waduge Susantha Janaka Kumara, Xiefei Zhi, Zin Mie Mie Sein

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Understanding the air temperature variability is crucially important for disaster risk reduction and management. In this study, we used 15 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal variability of air temperature over Sri Lanka during 1972–2021. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and correlation coefficient analysis were used to investigate the long-term trends of air temperature and their possible relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over the region. The results indicate that an increasing trend in air temperature was observed with the abrupt climate change noted in the year 1994. The spatial distribution of EOF1 (63.5%) shows the positive and negative loading dipole patterns from south to northeast, while EOF2 (23.4%) explains warmer (colder) in some parts of central (south and east) areas. The power spectrum of PC1 (PC2) indicates that there is a significant period of 3-4 years (quasi-2 years). Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) provides a strong positive correlation with the air temperature of Sri Lanka, while the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a weak negative correlation. Therefore, IOD events led to higher temperatures in the region. This study’s findings can help disaster risk reduction and management in the country.

Keywords: air temperature, interannaul variability, ENSO, IOD

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Benjamin K. Ghansah, Richard K. Appoh, Iliya Nababa, Eric K. Forkuo

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The Nasia River is an important source of water for domestic and agricultural purposes to the inhabitants of its catchment. Major farming activities takes place within the floodplain of the river and its network of tributaries. The actual inundation extent of the river system is; however, unknown. Reasons for this lack of information include financial constraints and inadequate human resources as flood modelling is becoming increasingly complex by the day. Knowledge of the inundation extent will help in the assessment of risk posed by the annual flooding of the river, and help in the planning of flood recession agricultural activities. This study used a simple terrain based algorithm, Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND), to delineate the floodplain of the Nasia River and its tributaries. The HAND model is a drainage normalized digital elevation model, which has its height reference based on the local drainage systems rather than the average mean sea level (AMSL). The underlying principle guiding the development of the HAND model is that hillslope flow paths behave differently when the reference gradient is to the local drainage network as compared to the seaward gradient. The new terrain model of the catchment was created using the NASA’s SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 30m as the only data input. Contours (HAND Contour) were then generated from the normalized DEM. Based on field flood inundation survey, historical information of flooding of the area as well as satellite images, a HAND Contour of 2m was found to best correlates with the flood inundation extent of the river and its tributaries. A percentage accuracy of 75% was obtained when the surface area created by the 2m contour was compared with surface area of the floodplain computed from a satellite image captured during the peak flooding season in September 2016. It was estimated that the flooding of the Nasia River and its tributaries created a floodplain area of 1011 km².

Keywords: digital elevation model, floodplain, HAND contour, inundation extent, Nasia River

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Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

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Authors: Mostosi C., Stéphenne J., Kempeneers E.

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Introduction: Refuellers from Brussels South Charleroi Airport (BSCA) expressed concerns about the risks involved in handling JET-A1 fuel. The HSE Manager of BSCA, in collaboration with the occupational physician and the industrial hygiene unit of the External Service of Occupational Medicine, decided to assess the toxicological exposure of these workers. Materials and methods: Two measurement methods were used. The first was to assay three types of metabolites in urine to highlight the exposure to xylenes, toluene, and benzene in aircraft fuels. Out of 32 refuellers in the department, 26 participated in the sampling, and 23 samples were exploited. The second method targeted the assessment of environmental exposure to certain potentially hazardous substances that refuellers are likely to breathe in work areas at the airport. It was decided to carry out two ambient air measurement campaigns, using static systems on the one hand and, on the other hand, using individual sensors worn by the refuellers at the level of the respiratory tract. Volatile organic compounds and diesel particles were analyzed. Results: Despite the fears that motivated these analyzes, the overall results showed low levels of exposure, far below the existing limit values, both in air quality and in urinary measurements. Conclusion: These results are comparable to a study carried out in several French airports. The staff could be reassured, and then the medical surveillance was modified by the occupational physician. With the aviation development at BSCA, equipment and methods are evolving. Their exposure will have to be reassessed.

Keywords: refuelling, airport, exposure, fuel, occupational health, air quality

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Authors: Tahsien Mohamed Okasha

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We hypothesized that Post cardiac arrest patients with Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score of less than (8) and who will be exposed to therapeutic hypothermia protocol will exhibit improvement in their neurological performance. Purposive sample of 17 patients who were fulfilling the inclusion criteria during one year collected. The study carried out using Quasi-experimental research design. Four Tools used for data collection of this study: Demographic and medical data sheet, Post cardiac arrest health assessment sheet, Bedside Shivering Assessment Scale (BSAS), and Glasgow Pittsburgh cerebral performance category scale (CPC). Result: the mean age was X̅ ± SD = 53 ± 8.122 years, 47.1% were arrested because of cardiac etiology. 35.3% with initial arrest rhythm ventricular tachycardia (VT), 23.5% with ventricular fibrillation (VF), and 29.4% with A-Systole. Favorable neurological outcome was seen among 70.6%. There was significant statistical difference in WBC, Platelets, blood gases value, random blood sugar. Also Initial arrest rhythm, etiology of cardiac arrest, and shivering status were significantly correlated with cerebral performance categories score. therapeutic hypothermia has positive effects on neurological performance among post cardiac arrest patients with GCS score of less than (8). replication of the study on larger probability sample, with randomized control trial design. Further study for suggesting nursing protocol for patients undergoing therapeutic hypothermia.

Keywords: therapeutic hypothermia, neurological performance, after resuscitation from cardiac arrest., resuscitation

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Authors: Daniel K. Gameti

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The paper explored the effects of active and passive entrepreneurship education methods on the venture creation intention of undergraduate students in Ghana. The study also examined the moderating effect of gender and negative personal characteristics (risk tolerance, stress tolerance and fear of failure) on students’ venture creation intention. Deductive approach was used in collecting quantitative data from 555 business students from one public university and one private university through self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistic was used to determine the dominant method of entrepreneurship education used in Ghana. Further, structural equation model was used to test four hypotheses. The results of the study show that the dominant method of education used in Ghana was lectures and the least method used was field trip. The study further revealed that passive methods of education are less effective compared to active methods which were statistically significant in venture creation intention among students. There was also statistical difference between male and female students’ venture creation intention but stronger among male students and finally, the only personal characteristics that influence students’ intention was stress tolerance because risk tolerance and fear of failure were statistically insignificant.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, Ghana, moderating variables, venture creation intention, undergraduate students

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Authors: Silvia Rahmita

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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.

Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

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In today's data-driven world, the role of mathematics in bridging the gap between theory and applications is becoming increasingly vital. This abstract highlights the significance of mathematics as a powerful tool for analyzing, interpreting, and extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of data. By integrating mathematical principles with real-world applications, researchers can unlock the full potential of data-driven decision-making processes. This abstract delves into the various ways mathematics acts as a bridge connecting theoretical frameworks to practical applications. It explores the utilization of mathematical models, algorithms, and statistical techniques to uncover hidden patterns, trends, and correlations within complex datasets. Furthermore, it investigates the role of mathematics in enhancing predictive modeling, optimization, and risk assessment methodologies for improved decision-making in diverse fields such as finance, healthcare, engineering, and social sciences. The abstract also emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary collaboration between mathematicians, statisticians, computer scientists, and domain experts to tackle the challenges posed by the data-driven landscape. By fostering synergies between these disciplines, novel approaches can be developed to address complex problems and make data-driven insights accessible and actionable. Moreover, this abstract underscores the importance of robust mathematical foundations for ensuring the reliability and validity of data analysis. Rigorous mathematical frameworks not only provide a solid basis for understanding and interpreting results but also contribute to the development of innovative methodologies and techniques. In summary, this abstract advocates for the pivotal role of mathematics in bridging theory and applications in a data-driven world. By harnessing mathematical principles, researchers can unlock the transformative potential of data analysis, paving the way for evidence-based decision-making, optimized processes, and innovative solutions to the challenges of our rapidly evolving society.

Keywords: mathematics, bridging theory and applications, data-driven world, mathematical models

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Authors: Linda Fellag, Arlene Caney

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E-learning has earned an essential place in academia because it promotes learner autonomy, student engagement, and technological aptitude, and allows for flexible learning. However, despite advantages, educators have been slower to embrace e-learning for ESL and other non-traditional students for fear that such students will not succeed without the direct faculty contact and academic support of face-to-face classrooms. This study aims to determine if a non-traditional student-friendly online course can produce student retention and performance rates that compare favorably with those of students in standard online sections of the same course aimed at traditional college-level students. One Music faculty member is currently collaborating with an English instructor to redesign an online college-level Music Appreciation course for non-traditional college students. At Community College of Philadelphia, Introduction to Music Appreciation was recently designated as one of the few college-level courses that advanced ESL, and developmental English students can take while completing their language studies. Beginning in Fall 2017, the course will be critical for international students who must maintain full-time student status under visa requirements. In its current online format, however, Music Appreciation is designed for traditional college students, and faculty who teach these sections have been reluctant to revise the course to address the needs of non-traditional students. Interestingly, presenters maintain that the online platform is the ideal place to develop language and college readiness skills in at-risk students while maintaining the course's curricular integrity. The two faculty presenters describe how curriculum rather than technology drives the redesign of the digitized music course, and self-study materials, guided assignments, and periodic assessments promote independent learning and comprehension of material. The 'scaffolded' modules allow ESL and developmental English students to build on prior knowledge, preview key vocabulary, discuss content, and complete graded tasks that demonstrate comprehension. Activities and assignments, in turn, enhance college success by allowing students to practice academic reading strategies, writing, speaking, and student-faculty and peer-peer communication and collaboration. The course components facilitate a comparison of student performance and retention in sections of the redesigned and existing online sections of Music Appreciation as well as in previous sections with at-risk students. Indirect, qualitative measures include student attitudinal surveys and evaluations. Direct, quantitative measures include withdrawal rates, tests of disciplinary knowledge, and final grades. The study will compare the outcomes of three cohorts in the two versions of the online course: ESL students, at-risk developmental students, and college-level students. These data will also be compared with retention and student outcomes data of the three cohorts in f2f Music Appreciation, which permitted non-traditional student enrollment from 1998-2005. During this eight-year period, the presenter addressed the problems of at-risk students by adding language and college success support, which resulted in strong retention and outcomes. The presenters contend that the redesigned course will produce favorable outcomes among all three cohorts because it contains components which proved successful with at-risk learners in f2f sections of the course. Results of their study will be published in 2019 after the redesigned online course has met for two semesters.

Keywords: college readiness, e-learning, music appreciation, online courses

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Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

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Authors: Leila Yazdanpanah, Hajieh Shahbazian, Seyed Mahmoud Latifi, Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Saeed Ghanbari

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Introduction: This study was designed to determine the prevalence of diabetes in people aged over 20 years in Ahvaz, Iran. Material and Methods: The study population selected by cluster sampling. Fasting blood sugar (FBS) assessed after minimum 8 hours night fasting. A questionnaire included: age, sex, weight, height, blood pressure, waist circumference and previous history of diabetes were completed for each patient. FBS≥126mg/dl and/or oral hypoglycemic treatment and/or insulin was defined as diabetes, FBS=100-125 mg/dl as impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and FBS<100mg/dl as normal. Results: Study population was 936 persons (47.2 % male and 52.8% female). The mean age of a population was 42.2±14 years. Diabetes was detected in 15.1 % of population. Only 57cases(6.1%) were aware of their disease and 9% had unknown diabetes. Diabetes was detected in 14.5% of male (11.3% unknown and 3.2 % known diabetes) and in 11.7% of female (7% unknown and 4.7% known diabetes). Prevalence of diabetes had no significant difference (P=0.21) in male and female but unknown diabetes was significantly higher in male (P=0.025). Prevalence of diabetes was increased with rising of age between 20-60 years old but decreasing after 60 years old. Diabetes was related to age, waist circumference and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, TG level and BMI in both sex (P=0.0001). Conclusion: More than half of female and three-fourth of male diabetic patients are unaware of their disease in South of Iran. Diabetes screening should be intensified in this population.

Keywords: diabetes, prevalence, risk factor, awareness

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Authors: Sundaresan Sivapatham, B. Prabhu

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Cancer results from a multistage, multi-mechanism carcinogenesis process that involves mutagenic, cell death and epigenetic mechanisms, during the three distinguishable but closely allied stages: initiation, promotion, and progression. Chemoprevention is promising in the realm of cancer prevention and it has been shown to reduce the risk of development of carcinoma in highly susceptible individuals such as those with known genetic mutations or high level of risk factors. The present study is aimed at the need of early detection of bladder cancer in order to improve performance in the treatment of this disease. Consumption of certain natural products like DIM is associated with a reduction in cancer incidence in humans. The study showed the protective effects of Diindolylmethane in N-Butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl) nitrosamine treated rats. Results of the study had shown the changes in the tumor markers, biomarkers and histopathological alterations in experimental rats when compared to control rats. The protective effects of DIM were shown from the results of cell proliferation, apoptotic markers and histopathological findings when compared with experimental control animals. Hence, our results speculate that the tumor markers, apoptotic markers, histopathological changes and cell proliferation index measured as PCNA serves as an indicator suggestive of protective effects of DIM in BBN induced urinary bladder carcinogenesis.

Keywords: bladder cancer, N-Butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl) nitrosamine, diindolylmethane, histopathology

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Authors: Basuki Supartono, Nunuk Nugrohowati, Ryan Gamma Andiraldi

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Osteoarthritis of the knee can occur due to scoliosis. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of scoliosis cause secondary osteoarthritis on the knee. This research use an analytic cross-sectional design. The total sample of 92 athletes scoliosis taken by simple random sampling technique. The data obtained were analyzing with Chi-square test, Fisher and Prevalence Ratio. The results of analysis show that there are influences on the incidence of scoliosis secondary osteoarthritis on the knee in athletes at the National Sports Hospital. Based on the criteria in the Cobbs angle had the results (p = 0.022 (p <0.05)), moderate Cobbs angle degree were 7.5 times more at risk of causing secondary osteoarthritis on the knee than a mild degree. While the shape of the curve scoliosis is getting results (p = 0.038 (p <0.05)), the shape of the S curve scoliosis 3.2 times more at risk of causing secondary osteoarthritis on the knee than the curve C. It can be concluded that there is significant influence between the Cobbs angle, shape of the curve scoliosis on the incidence of secondary osteoarthritis on the knee in National Sports Cibubur Hospital on July 2013- April 2014

Keywords: Cobbs angle, curve shape scoliosis, secondary osteoarthritis on the knee, analytic cross-sectional design

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Authors: Dionisios Panagiotaras, Ioannis P. Kokkoris, Dionysios Koulougliotis, Dimitra Lekka, Alexandra Skalioti

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In the summer of 2021, Greece was affected by devastating forest fires in various regions of the country, resulting in human losses, destruction or degradation of the natural environment, infrastructure, livestock and cultivations. The present study concerns a pilot assessment of natural vegetation regeneration in the second, in terms of area, fire-affected region for 2021, at Ancient Olympia area, located in West Peloponnisos (Ilia Prefecture), Greece. A standardised field sampling protocol for assessing natural regeneration was implemented at selected sites where the forest fire had occurred previously (in 2007), and the vegetation (Pinus halepensis forest) had regenerated naturally. The results of the study indicate the loss of the established natural regeneration of Pinus halepensis forest, as well as of the tree-layer in total. Post-fire succession species are recorded to the shrub and the herb layer, with a varying cover. Present findings correspond to the results of field work and analysis one year after the fire, which will form the basis for further research and conclusions on taking action for restoration schemes in areas that have been affected by fire more than once within a 20-year period.

Keywords: forest, pinus halepensis, ancient olympia, post fire vegetation

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Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Afsaneh Amouei, Iman Bakouei, Mahdi Sharif, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Mohammad Taghi Rahimi, Ahmad Daryani

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Background: Rodents act as reservoir host and important potential source for many zoonotic pathogens which pose a public health risk to humans. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the prevalence of gastrointestinal and ectoparasites among rodents. Materials and Methods: 118 Rattus rattus were captured using snap live traps. Each rat was combed with a fine tooth comb to dislodge ectoparasite and studied. Various samples were collected from feces, examined wet smear, formalin-ether method and stained with modified acid-fast staining and trichrome. Result: The overall prevalence of gastrointestinal parasites of examined rats was 75.4%. Cryptosporidium 30.5%, was the most prevalent protozoan which was followed by Giardia 20.3% and Entamoeba muris 13.5%, Trichomonas muris 10.1% and Spironucleus muris 3.3%. The prevalence of helminth egg was as following Syphacia obvelata 24.5%, Hymenolepis diminuta 10.1% and Trichuris muris 9.3%. 86.4% rodents were found to be infested with ectoparasites including mite 35.6%, flea 28.4%, and lice 42.7%. A significant statistical difference was observed between prevalence and gender of infected individuals. Conclusions: The prevalence of gastrointestinal and ectoparasites of collected rats in studied area is remarkably high. In addition, Rattus rattus can be considered as potential risk for human health.

Keywords: prevalence, rodent, intestinal parasites, ecto-parasites, zoonose

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Authors: N. J. Shanono, J. G. Ndiritu

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The poor performance of water resource systems (WRS) has been reportedly linked to not only climate variability and the water demand dynamics but also human behaviour-driven unlawful activities. Some of these unlawful activities that have been adversely affecting water sector include unauthorized water abstractions, water wastage behaviour, refusal of water re‐use measures, excessive operational losses, discharging untreated or improperly treated wastewater, over‐application of chemicals by agricultural users and fraudulent WRS operation. Despite advances in WRS planning, operation, and analysis incorporating such undesirable human activities to quantitatively assess their impact on WRS performance remain elusive. This study was then inspired by the need to develop a methodological framework for WRS performance assessment that integrates the impact of human behaviour with WRS performance assessment analysis. We, therefore, proposed a conceptual framework for assessing the impact of human behaviour on WRS performance using the concept of socio-hydrology. The framework identifies and couples four major sources of WRS-related values (water values, water systems, water managers, and water users) using three missing links between human and water in the management of WRS (interactions, outcomes, and feedbacks). The framework is to serve as a database for choosing relevant social and hydrological variables and to understand the intrinsic relations between the selected variables to study a specific human-water problem in the context of WRS management.

Keywords: conceptual framework, human behaviour; socio-hydrology; water resource systems

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Authors: Pedro Dias, Lurdes Verissimo, Maria Joao Baptista, Ana Pinheiro, Patricia Oliveira-Silva, Sofia Serra, Daniela Coimbra

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To achieve a high standard in performance, a musician must be well in all aspects of health (physical, mental and social). Anxiety in performance is related to the high level of coordination and skill needed in performance, as well as to the public evaluation of the performer. It affects some key elements of performance, such as concentration, memory, motor coordination, and relaxation. This work presents two studies focused on the adaptation and evaluation of the psychometric properties of the Music Performance Anxiety Inventory (MPAI-A) in young Portuguese music students. The first study was conducted with a sample of 161 adolescent music students, who responded to the Portuguese version of this instrument, and to the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for Children (STAIC-c2). Validity and reliability were examined, and this measure revealed robust psychometric properties in this sample. The second study aimed to adapt the MPAI to a younger population (one hundred 8-10 years-old music students). Again, the MPAI and the STAIC c-2 were used in this study. Exploratory factor analysis, correlations, and internal consistency were used to evaluate the final children version of the instrument (MPAI-C), presenting a different factor structure compared to the adolescent version (10 items organized in 2 factors) and high levels of reliability and convergent validity.

Keywords: anxiety, assessment, children and adolescents, music performance

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Authors: Hussein Lujuo Mohamed

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Introduction: Public health has always been influenced by climate and weather. Changes in climate and climate variability, particularly changes in weather extremes affect the environment that provides people with clean air, food, water, shelter, and security. Tanzania is not an exception to the threats of climate change. The health sector is mostly affected due to emergence and proliferation of infectious diseases, thereby affecting health of the population and thus impacting achievement of sustainable development goals. Methodology: A desk review on documented issues pertaining to climate change and health in Tanzania was done using Google search engine. Keywords included climate change, link, health, climate initiatives. In cases where information was not available, documents from Ministry of Health, Vice Presidents Office-Environment, Local Government Authority, Ministry of Water, WHO, research, and training institutions were reviewed. Some of the reviewed documents from these institutions include policy brief papers, fieldwork activity reports, training manuals, and guidelines. Results: Six main climate resilience activities were identified in Tanzania. These were development and implementation of climate resilient water safety plans guidelines both for rural and urban water authorities, capacity building of rural and urban water authorities on implementation of climate-resilient water safety plans, and capacity strengthening of local environmental health practitioners on mainstreaming climate change and health into comprehensive council health plans. Others were vulnerability and adaptation assessment for the health sector, mainstreaming climate change in the National Health Policy, and development of risk communication strategy on climate. In addition information, education, and communication materials on climate change and to create awareness were developed aiming to sensitize and create awareness among communities on climate change issues and its effect on public health. Conclusion: Proper implementation of these interventions will help the country become resilient to many impacts of climate change in the health sector and become a good example for other least developed countries.

Keywords: climate, change, Tanzania, health

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Authors: Samuel Oludayo Alamu, Seong Lee

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The need for generating energy from biomass in an efficient way as well as maximizing the yield of total energy from the thermal conversion process has been a major concern for researchers. A holistic approach which involves the combination of First law of thermodynamics (FLT) and the second law of thermodynamics (SLT) is required for conducting an effective assessment of an energy plant since FLT analysis alone fails to identify the quality of the dissipated energy and how much work potential is available. The overall purpose of this study is to investigate the exergy analysis of direct combustion of poultry waste being converted to energy with a handful of environmental assessment of the conversion processes in order to maximize thermal efficiency. The exergy analysis around the shell and tube heat exchanger (STHE) was investigated primarily by varying the operating parameters for different tube shapes and flow direction, and an exergy model was obtained from estimations of the higher heating value and standard entropy of poultry waste from the elemental compositions. The STHE was designed and fabricated by Lee Research Group at Morgan State University. The analysis conducted on theSTHE using the flue gas temperature entering and exiting show that only about one-third of the energy input to the STHE was available to do work with an overall efficiency of 13.8%, while a huge amount was lost to the surrounding. By recirculating the flue gas, the exergy efficiency of the combustion system can be maximized with a greater reduction in the amount of exergy loss.

Keywords: exergy analysis, shell and tube heat exchanger, thermodynamics, combustion system, thermal efficiency

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Authors: Pradip Kumar Das

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Phenomenal growth of population and industry exploits the environment in varied ways. Consequently, the greenhouse effect and other allied problems are threatening mankind the world over. Protection and up gradation of environment have, therefore, become the prime necessity all of mankind for the sustainable development of environment. People in humbler walks of life including the corporate citizens have become aware of the impacts of environmental pollution. Governments of various nations have entered the picture with laws and regulations to correct and cure the effects of present and past violations of environmental practices and to obstruct future violations of good environmental disciplines. In this perspective, environmental audit directs verification and validation to ensure that the various environmental laws are complied with and adequate care has been taken towards environmental protection and preservation. The discipline of environmental audit has experienced expressive development throughout the world. It examines the positive and negative effects of the activities of an enterprise on environment and provides an in-depth study of the company processes any growth in realizing long-term strategic goals. Environmental audit helps corporations assess its achievement, correct deficiencies and reduce risk to the health and improving safety. Environmental audit being a strong management tool should be administered by industry for its own self-assessment. Developed countries all over the globe have gone ahead in environment quantification; but unfortunately, there is a lack of awareness about pollution and environmental hazards among the common people in India. In the light of this situation, the conceptual analysis of this study is concerned with the rationale of environmental audit on the industry and the society as a whole and highlights the emerging dimensions in the auditing theory and practices. A modest attempt has been made to throw light on the recent development in environmental audit in developing nations like India and the problems associated with the implementation of environmental audit. The conceptual study also reflects that despite different obstacles, environmental audit is becoming an increasing aspect within the corporate sectors in India and lastly, conclusions along with suggestions have been offered to improve the current scenario.

Keywords: environmental audit, environmental hazards, environmental laws, environmental protection, environmental preservation

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Authors: Athina Thanou, Eirini Eleni Tsiropoulou, Symeon Papavassiliou

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The problem of museum visitor experience and congestion management – in various forms - has come increasingly under the spotlight over the last few years, since overcrowding can significantly decrease the quality of visitors’ experience. Evidence suggests that on busy days the amount of time a visitor spends inside a crowded house museum can fall by up to 60% compared to a quiet mid-week day. In this paper we consider the aforementioned problem, by treating museums as evolving social systems that induce constraints. However, in a cultural heritage space, as opposed to the majority of social environments, the momentum of the experience is primarily controlled by the visitor himself. Visitors typically behave selfishly regarding the maximization of their own Quality of Experience (QoE) - commonly expressed through a utility function that takes several parameters into consideration, with crowd density and waiting/visiting time being among the key ones. In such a setting, congestion occurs when either the utility of one visitor decreases due to the behavior of other persons, or when costs of undertaking an activity rise due to the presence of other persons. We initially investigate how visitors’ behavioral risk attitudes, as captured and represented by prospect theory, affect their decisions in resource sharing settings, where visitors’ decisions and experiences are strongly interdependent. Different from the majority of existing studies and literature, we highlight that visitors are not risk neutral utility maximizers, but they demonstrate risk-aware behavior according to their personal risk characteristics. In our work, exhibits are organized into two groups: a) “safe exhibits” that correspond to less congested ones, where the visitors receive guaranteed satisfaction in accordance with the visiting time invested, and b) common pool of resources (CPR) exhibits, which are the most popular exhibits with possibly increased congestion and uncertain outcome in terms of visitor satisfaction. A key difference is that the visitor satisfaction due to CPR strongly depends not only on the invested time decision of a specific visitor, but also on that of the rest of the visitors. In the latter case, the over-investment in time, or equivalently the increased congestion potentially leads to “exhibit failure”, interpreted as the visitors gain no satisfaction from their observation of this exhibit due to high congestion. We present a framework where each visitor in a distributed manner determines his time investment in safe or CPR exhibits to optimize his QoE. Based on this framework, we analyze and evaluate how visitors, acting as prospect-theoretic decision-makers, respond and react to the various pricing policies imposed by the museum curators. Based on detailed evaluation results and experiments, we present interesting observations, regarding the impact of several parameters and characteristics such as visitor heterogeneity and use of alternative pricing policies, on scalability, user satisfaction, museum capacity, resource fragility, and operation point stability. Furthermore, we study and present the effectiveness of alternative pricing mechanisms, when used as implicit tools, to deal with the congestion management problem in the museums, and potentially decrease the exhibit failure probability (fragility), while considering the visitor risk preferences.

Keywords: museum resource and visitor management, congestion management, propsect theory, cyber physical social systems

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