Search results for: risk and reliability analysis

Authors: Willie Eselebor

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Environmental governance is not new, but may consist of a series of actions taken to establish sanity and ensure sustainable environment. While there is a growing accord linking disaster risk reduction with the management of environment and natural resources, little is known about failure to act which constitute vulnerability and how improved governance reduces risk globally. The paper reviews emerging trends in the field of application of governance tools and approaches for reducing disaster risk. The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) enjoin all stakeholders to stimulate the sustainable use and management of ecosystems, which promote the implementation of integrated environmental and natural resource planning that incorporate disaster risk reduction, including structural and non-structural measures, such as integrated management of fragile ecosystems. The methodology adopted is a case study of disaster-prone sites, prompting guided analysis on which hazards are traceable to environmental degradation, why a degraded environment reduces community resilience; how healthy ecosystems provide natural defense, and which opportunities exist to address gaps in reduction of disasters in Nigeria. The paper further analyses the interaction between disaster risk and environmental change. It is established that environmental governance remains a challenge; which implies that there is the need for a shift in traditional approaches to disaster risk management; exploring new initiatives and allowing environmental managers to be docketed as disaster risk managers in context, potentially opening up a window of dialogue on disaster risk management.

Keywords: disaster, ecosystem, environment, risk

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Authors: Guldana Zhigerbayeva, Ming Yang

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Transportation of hazardous materials (HAZMAT) is inevitable in the process industries. The statistics show a significant number of accidents has occurred during the transportation of HAZMAT. This makes risk management of HAZMAT transportation an important topic. The tree-based methods including fault-trees, event-trees and cause-consequence analysis, and Bayesian network, have been applied to risk management of HAZMAT transportation. However, there is limited work on the development of a systematic approach. The existing approaches fail to build up the linkages between the regulatory requirements and the safety measures development. The analysis of historical data from the past accidents’ report databases would limit our focus on the specific incidents and their specific causes. Thus, we may overlook some essential elements in risk management, including regulatory compliance, field expert opinions, and suggestions. A systematic approach is needed to translate the regulatory requirements of HAZMAT transportation into specified safety measures (both technical and administrative) to support the risk management process. This study aims to first adapt the House of Quality (HoQ) to House of Safety (HoS) and proposes a new approach- Safety Function Deployment (SFD). The results of SFD will be used in a multi-criteria decision-support system to develop find an optimal route for HazMats transportation. The proposed approach will be demonstrated through a hypothetical transportation case in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: hazardous materials, risk assessment, risk management, quality function deployment

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

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Authors: İsmail Seçer

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Although depression and anxiety disorders are considered to be adult disorders, the evidence obtained from several studies conducted recently shows that the roots of depression and anxiety disorders go back to childhood years. Thus, it is thought that analyzing depressive symptoms and anxiety disorders observed in the childhood is an important necessity. In the direction of the problem status of the study, the purpose of this study is to adapt anxiety and depression questionnaire for children into Turkish culture and analyze the psychometric characteristics of it on clinical and nonclinical samples separately. The study is a descriptive survey research. The study was conducted on two different sample groups, clinical and nonclinical. The clinical sample is formed of 205 individuals and the nonclinical sample is formed of 630 individuals. Through the study, anxiety and depression questionnaire for children, anxiety sensitivity index and obsessive compulsive disorder questionnaire for children were used. Experts’ opinions were asked to provide language validity of the scale. Confirmatory factor analysis and criterion-related validity to analyze construct validity and internal consistency and split-half reliability analyses were done for reliability. In the direction of experts’ opinions, construct validity of the scale was analyzed with simple confirmatory factor analysis and it was determined that the model fit of the two-factor structure of the scale gives good fit on both the clinical and nonclinical samples after determining that the language validity of the scale is provided. In criterion-related validity, it was determined that there are positive and significant relations between anxiety and depression questionnaire for children and anxiety sensitivity and obsessive compulsive disorder. The results of internal consistency and half-split reliability analyses also show that the scale has adequate reliability value. It can be said that depression and anxiety questionnaire for children which was adapted to determine depressive symptoms and anxiety disorders observed in childhood has adequate reliability and validity values and it can be used in future studies. It can be recommended that the psychometric characteristics of the scale can be analyzed and reported on new samples in the future studies.

Keywords: scale adapting, construct validity, confirmatory factor analysis, childhood depression

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Authors: Henok Metaferia Gebremariam

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Worldwide, considerable resources are spent implementing public health interventions that are interrupted soon after the initial funding ends. However, ambiguity remains as to how health programs can be effectively sustained over time because of the diversity of perspectives, definitions, study methods, outcomes measures and timeframes. From all the above-mentioned research challenges, standardized measures of sustainability should ultimately become a key research issue. To resolve this key challenge, the objective of the study was to adapt a tool for measuring the program’s capacity for sustainability and evaluating its reliability and validity. To adapt and validate the tool, a cross-sectional and cohort study design was conducted at 26 programs in Addis Ababa between September 2014 and May 2015. An adapted version of the tool after the pilot test was administered to 220 staff. The tool was analyzed for reliability and validity. Results show that a 40-item PSAT tool had been adapted into the Amharic version with good internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha= 0.80), test-retest reliability(r=0.916) and construct validity. Factor analysis resulted in 7 components explaining 56.67 % of the variance. In conclusion, it was found that the Amharic version of PAST was a reliable and valid tool for measuring the program’s capacity for sustainability.

Keywords: program sustainability, public health interventions, reliability, validity

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Alyaa M. Younes, Nermine Harraz, Mohammad H. Elwany

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Lithium ion batteries are currently used for many applications including satellites, electric vehicles and mobile electronics. Their ability to store relatively large amount of energy in a limited space make them most appropriate for critical applications. Evaluation of the life of these batteries and their reliability becomes crucial to the systems they support. Reliability of Li-Ion batteries has been mainly considered based on its lifetime. However, another important factor that can be considered critical in many applications such as in electric vehicles is the cycle duration. The present work presents the results of an experimental investigation on the degradation behavior of a Laptop Li-ion battery (type TKV2V) and the effect of applied load on the battery cycle time. The reliability was evaluated using an accelerated life test. Least squares linear regression with median rank estimation was used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters needed for the reliability functions estimation. The probability density function, failure rate and reliability function under each of the applied loads were evaluated and compared. An inverse power model is introduced that can predict cycle time at any stress level given.

Keywords: accelerated life test, inverse power law, lithium-ion battery, reliability evaluation, Weibull distribution

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Muhammad Wasif, Asif Ahmed Shaikh, Sarosh Hashmat Lodi, Muhammad Aslam Bhutto, Riazuddin

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Risk Management System is quite popular in profit- based organizations, health and safety and project management fields since the last few decades. But due to rapidly changing environment and requirement of ISO 9001:2015 standards, public-sector institution, especially higher education institutes are also performing risk assessment to monitor the performance of the institution and aligning it with the latest benchmark. In this context, NED University of Engineering and Technology performed research and developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the risk assessment, its monitoring and control. In this research, risks are broken into the four sources, namely; Internal Academics Risks, External Academics Risks, Internal Non-academic Risks, External Non-academic Risks. Risks are identified by the management at all levels. Severity and likelihood of the risks are assigned based on the previous audit results and the customer complains. Risk Ratings are calculated to orderly arrange the risk according to the Risk Rating, and controls for the risks are designed, which are assigned to the responsible person. At the end of the article, result and analysis on the different sources of risk are discussed in details and the conclusion is drawn. Discussion on few sample risks are presented in this article. Hence it is presented in the research that the Risk Management System can be applied in a Higher Education Institute to effectively control the risks which might affect the scope and Quality Management System of an organization.

Keywords: higher education, quality management system, risk assessment, risk management

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Authors: Xiang Jia, Zhijun Cheng

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The residual lifetime of a product is the operation time between the current time and the time point when the failure happens. The residual lifetime estimation is rather important in reliability analysis. To predict the residual lifetime, it is necessary to assume or verify a particular distribution that the lifetime of the product follows. And the two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequently adopted to describe the lifetime in reliability engineering. Due to the time constraint and cost reduction, a life testing experiment is usually terminated before all the units have failed. Then the censored data is usually collected. In addition, other information could also be obtained for reliability analysis. The expert judgements are considered as it is common that the experts could present some useful information concerning the reliability. Therefore, the residual lifetime is estimated for Weibull distribution by fusing the censored data and expert judgements in this paper. First, the closed-forms concerning the point estimate and confidence interval for the residual lifetime under the Weibull distribution are both presented. Next, the expert judgements are regarded as the prior information and how to determine the prior distribution of Weibull parameters is developed. For completeness, the cases that there is only one, and there are more than two expert judgements are both focused on. Further, the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters is derived. Considering that it is difficult to derive the posterior distribution of residual lifetime, a sample-based method is proposed to generate the posterior samples of Weibull parameters based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. And these samples are used to obtain the Bayes estimation and credible interval for the residual lifetime. Finally, an illustrative example is discussed to show the application. It demonstrates that the proposed method is rather simple, satisfactory, and robust.

Keywords: expert judgements, information fusion, residual lifetime, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis with novel elements to assess the influence and dissemination of research results and to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The population under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: food supply chain, risk assessment, scientometrics, web of science

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Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

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Authors: Sibongiseni Thabethe, Ian Korir

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The effective management of spent fuel pool (SFP) safety has been raised as one of the emerging issues to further enhance nuclear installation safety after the Fukushima accident on March 11, 2011. Before then, SFP safety-related issues have been mainly focused on (a) controlling the configuration of the fuel assemblies in the pool with no loss of pool coolants and (b) ensuring adequate pool storage space to prevent fuel criticality owing to chain reactions of the fission products and the ability for neutron absorption to keep the fuel cool. A probabilistic safety (PSA) assessment was performed using the systems analysis program for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) computer code. Event and fault tree analysis was done to develop a PSA model for the Koeberg SFP. We present preliminary PSA results of events that lead to boiling and cause fuel uncovering, resulting in possible fuel damage in the Koeberg SFP.

Keywords: computer code, fuel assemblies, probabilistic risk assessment, spent fuel pool

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Authors: Yong-Jun Kim, Jae-Hyun Ro, Chang-Bin Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Because current wireless communication requires high reliability in a limited bandwidth environment, this paper proposes the variable modulation scheme based on the codebook. The variable modulation scheme adjusts transmission power using the codebook in accordance with hannel state. Also, if the codebook is composed of many bits, the reliability is more improved by the proposed scheme. The simulation results show that the performance of proposed scheme has better reliability than the the performance of conventional scheme.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, variable modulation, codebook, channel state

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Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

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Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

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Authors: Chang-Fa Liu, Yi-Ting Wang, Yuan Liu, Hai-Feng Wei, Lei Fang, Jin Li

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Heavy metals in sediments can cause adverse ecological effects while it exceeds a given criteria. The present study investigated sediment environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological risk, and source identification for copper, cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic in the sediments collected from tidal flat marsh of Shuangtai estuary, China. The arithmetic mean integrated pollution index, geometric mean integrated pollution index, fuzzy integrated pollution index, and principal component score were used to characterize sediment environmental quality; fuzzy similarity and geo-accumulation Index were used to evaluate pollutant enrichment; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis were used to identify source of pollution; environmental risk index and potential ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The environmental qualities of sediment are classified to very low degree of contamination or low contamination. The similar order to element background of soil in the Liaohe plain is region of Sanjiaozhou, Honghaitan, Sandaogou, Xiaohe by pollutant enrichment analysis. The source identification indicates that correlations are significantly among metals except between copper and cadmium. Cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic will be clustered in the same clustering as the first principal component. Copper will be clustered as second principal component. The environmental risk assessment level will be scaled to no risk in the studied area. The order of potential ecological risk is As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Keywords: ecological risk assessment, heavy metals, sediment, marsh, Shuangtai estuary

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Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

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Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

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This research proposes a methodology to estimate the customer order lead time in the supply chain based on the process capability index. The cases when the process output is normally distributed and when it is not are considered. The relationships between the system capability indices in both service and manufacturing applications, delivery system reliability and the percentages of orders delivered after their promised due dates are presented. The proposed method can be used to examine the current process capability to deliver the orders before the promised lead-time. If the system was found to be incapable, the method can be used to help revise the current lead-time to a proper value according to the service reliability level selected by the management. Numerical examples and a case study describing the lead time estimation methodology and testing the system capability of delivering the orders before their promised due date are illustrated.

Keywords: lead-time estimation, process capability index, delivery system reliability, statistical analysis, service achievement index, service quality

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Authors: Alexander Kelíšek, Denisa Janasová, Veronika Mitašová

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Weak signals using is often associated with early warning. It is possible to find a link between early warning, respectively early problems detection and risk management. The idea of early warning is very important in the context of crisis management because of the risk prevention possibility. Weak signals are likened to risk symptoms. Nowadays, their usefulness as a tool of proactive problems solving is emphasized. Based on it, it is possible to use weak signals not only in strategic planning, project management, or early warning system, but also as a subsidiary element in risk management. The main question is how to effectively integrate weak signals into risk management. The main aim of the paper is to point out the possibilities of weak signals using in small and medium enterprises risk management.

Keywords: early warning system, weak signals, risk management, small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

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Authors: Armenia Nazar, Sally M. J. Anggelya, Rose Dinda

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Hypertension prevalence in Indonesian has increased from time to time since 2013, especially in women. This cross-sectional analysis study was made to observe the incidence of hypertension on the reproductive women (20-49 years old) with several risk factors who use contraceptive pills. Data was collected from June - October 2016 in the Andalas Public Health Center, East Padang District, Indonesia. An amount of 167 respondents who were taken using consecutive sampling technique were participate in this study. Data of social demography, contraceptive used, duration of use, hypertension risk factors (age, family history, central obesity, body mass index, physical activity, and stress) were collected and analyzed statistically using Chi-Square analysis. Significant was taken at p < 0.05. Results showed that the woman with contraceptive pill was tent to get hypertension (OR = 3,90 and p < 0,001). In addition, woman with a family history OR of 6,77 (p = 0,09), mild physical activity OR of 3,67 (p = 0,33), moderate physical activity OR of 3,33 (p = 0,16), and stressed OR of 5.11 (p = 0.18). These indicated that the contraceptive pill user is 3.9 times more risk to develop hypertension than non-users, especially one with a family history of hypertension. Other risk factors were not associated with hypertension risk in these sex productive women.

Keywords: hypertension, oral contraceptive, sex productive woman, risk factors

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Authors: Isha Saxena, Behzad Kazemtabrizi, Matthias C. M. Troffaes, Christopher Crabtree

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The calculations done at the beginning of the life of a wind farm are rarely reliable, which makes it important to conduct research and study the failure and repair rates of the wind turbines under various conditions. This miscalculation happens because the current models make a simplifying assumption that the failure/repair rate remains constant over time. This means that the reliability function is exponential in nature. This research aims to create a more accurate model using sensory data and a data-driven approach. The data cleaning and data processing is done by comparing the Power Curve data of the wind turbines with SCADA data. This is then converted to times to repair and times to failure timeseries data. Several different mathematical functions are fitted to the times to failure and times to repair data of the wind turbine components using Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Posterior expectation method for Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Initial results indicate that two parameter Weibull function and exponential function produce almost identical results. Further analysis is being done using the complex system analysis considering the failures of each electrical and mechanical component of the wind turbine. The aim of this project is to perform a more accurate reliability analysis that can be helpful for the engineers to schedule maintenance and repairs to decrease the downtime of the turbine.

Keywords: reliability, bayesian parameter inference, maximum likelihood estimation, weibull function, SCADA data

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

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Authors: Vineel Inampudi, Arjun Prakash, Joseph Vinod

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Aims and Objectives: To evaluate the interrater reliability in grading ASPECTS score, between emergency medicine physician at first contact and radiologist among patients with acute ischemic stroke. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 86 acute ischemic stroke cases referred to the Department of Radiodiagnosis during November 2014 to January 2016. The imaging (plain CT scan) was performed using GE Bright Speed Elite 16 Slice CT Scanner. ASPECTS score was calculated separately by an emergency medicine physician and radiologist. Interrater reliability for total and dichotomized ASPECTS (≥ 6 and < 6) scores were assessed using statistical analysis (ICC and Cohen ĸ coefficients) on SPSS software (v17.0). Results: Interrater agreement for total and dichotomized ASPECTS was substantial (ICC 0.79 and Cohen ĸ 0.68) between the emergency physician and radiologist. Mean difference in ASPECTS between the two readers was only 0.15 with standard deviation of 1.58. No proportionality bias was detected. Bland Altman plot was constructed to demonstrate the distribution of ASPECT differences between the two readers. Conclusion: Substantial interrater agreement was noted in grading ASPECTS between emergency medicine physician at first contact and radiologist thereby confirming its robustness even in a rural setting.

Keywords: ASPECTS, computed tomography, MCA territory, stroke

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Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

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Authors: Lakhoua Najeh

Abstract:

Aims of the work: The aim of this paper is to improve the reliability and the availability of a Packer production line of cigarettes based on two methods: The SADT method (Structured Analysis Design Technique) and the FMECA approach (Failure Mode Effects and Critically Analysis). The first method enables us to describe the functionality of the Packer production line of cigarettes and the second method enables us to establish an FMECA analysis. Methods: The methodology adopted in order to contribute to the improvement of the reliability and the availability of a Packer production line of cigarettes has been proposed in this paper, and it is based on the use of Structured Analysis Design Technique (SADT) and Failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) methods. This methodology consists of using a diagnosis of the existing of all of the equipment of a production line of a factory in order to determine the most critical machine. In fact, we use, on the one hand, a functional analysis based on the SADT method of the production line and on the other hand, a diagnosis and classification of mechanical and electrical failures of the line production by their criticality analysis based on the FMECA approach. Results: Based on the methodology adopted in this paper, the results are the creation and the launch of a preventive maintenance plan. They contain the different elements of a Packer production line of cigarettes; the list of the intervention preventive activities and their period of realization. Conclusion: The diagnosis of the existing state helped us to found that the machine of cigarettes used in the Packer production line of cigarettes is the most critical machine in the factory. Then this enables us in the one hand, to describe the functionality of the production line of cigarettes by SADT method and on the other hand, to study the FMECA machine in order to improve the availability and the performance of this machine.

Keywords: production system, diagnosis, SADT method, FMECA method

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Meida Laely Ramdani, Earmporn Thongkrajai, Dedy Purwito

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Lifestyle is one of the most important factors affecting health. Measurement of lifestyle behaviors is necessary for the identification of causal associations between unhealthy lifestyle and health outcomes. There was many instruments have been measured for lifestyle, but not specific for stroke recurrence. This study aimed to develop a new questionnaire of Lifestyle Adjustment Scale (LSAS) among recurrent stroke patients in Indonesia and to measure the reliability and validity of LSAS. The instrument consist of 33 items was developed from the responses of 30 recurrent stroke patients with the maximum age 60 years. Data was collected during October to November 2015. The properties of the instrument were evaluated by validity assessment and reliability measures. The content validity was judged adequate by a panel of five experts, with the result of I-CVI was 0.97. The Cronbach’s alpha analysis was carried out to measure the reliability of LSAS. The result showed that Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was 0.819. LSAS were classified under the domains of dietary habit, smoking habit, physical activity, and stress management. The results of Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for each subscale were 0.60, 0.39, 0.67, 0.65 and 0.76 respectively. LSAS instrument was valid and reliable therefore can be used as research tool among recurrent stroke patients. The development of this questionnaire has been adapted to the socio-cultural context in Indonesia.

Keywords: LSAS, recurrent stroke patients, lifestyle, Indonesia

Procedia PDF Downloads 232