Search results for: expert judgements

Authors: Xiang Jia, Zhijun Cheng

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The residual lifetime of a product is the operation time between the current time and the time point when the failure happens. The residual lifetime estimation is rather important in reliability analysis. To predict the residual lifetime, it is necessary to assume or verify a particular distribution that the lifetime of the product follows. And the two-parameter Weibull distribution is frequently adopted to describe the lifetime in reliability engineering. Due to the time constraint and cost reduction, a life testing experiment is usually terminated before all the units have failed. Then the censored data is usually collected. In addition, other information could also be obtained for reliability analysis. The expert judgements are considered as it is common that the experts could present some useful information concerning the reliability. Therefore, the residual lifetime is estimated for Weibull distribution by fusing the censored data and expert judgements in this paper. First, the closed-forms concerning the point estimate and confidence interval for the residual lifetime under the Weibull distribution are both presented. Next, the expert judgements are regarded as the prior information and how to determine the prior distribution of Weibull parameters is developed. For completeness, the cases that there is only one, and there are more than two expert judgements are both focused on. Further, the posterior distribution of Weibull parameters is derived. Considering that it is difficult to derive the posterior distribution of residual lifetime, a sample-based method is proposed to generate the posterior samples of Weibull parameters based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. And these samples are used to obtain the Bayes estimation and credible interval for the residual lifetime. Finally, an illustrative example is discussed to show the application. It demonstrates that the proposed method is rather simple, satisfactory, and robust.

Keywords: expert judgements, information fusion, residual lifetime, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Gil Bae, Seung Uk Choi, Jae Eun Lee, Joon Hwa Rho

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Using proprietary engagement partner identity information for the Big 4 audit firms in Korea over the 2001-2011 period, we find that expert engagement partners obtain significantly higher total compensation than do non-expert partners. Importantly, we also find that expert partners increase the number of audit hours compared to their non-expert counterparts. The hourly billing rate, calculated as total fees divided by total audit hours, of expert partners is not higher than that of non-expert partners, indicating that there is no expert partner premium reflected in the hourly rate. This finding suggests that the increase in total audit fees is attributable mainly to the increase in the quantity of audit hours that expert partners work, not from the higher fee per hour. The results are not attributable to auditor selection bias.

Keywords: industry expert partners, expert premiums, audit hours, hourly charge rate

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: B.-Y.-S. Lau, Y.-C.-T. Jonathan, M.-S. Alias

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Heritage trees are natural large, individual trees with exceptionally value due to association with age or event or distinguished people. In Malaysia, there is an abundance of tropical heritage trees throughout the country. It is essential to set up a repository of heritage trees to prevent valuable trees from being cut down. In this cross domain study, a web-based online expert system namely the Heritage Tree Expert Assessment and Classification (HTEAC) is developed and deployed for public to nominate potential heritage trees. Based on the nomination, tree care experts or arborists would evaluate and verify the nominated trees as heritage trees. The expert system automatically rates the approved heritage trees according to pre-defined grades via Delphi technique. Features and usability test of the expert system are presented. Preliminary result is promising for the system to be used as a full scale public system.

Keywords: arboriculture, Delphi, expert system, heritage tree, urban forestry

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Authors: Chee Fai Tan, L. S. Wahidin, S. N. Khalil

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Nowadays, manufacturing cost is one of the important factors that will affect the product cost as well as company profit. There are many methods that have been used to reduce the manufacturing cost in order for a company to stay competitive. One of the factors that effect manufacturing cost is the time. Expert system can be used as a method to reduce the manufacturing time. The purpose of the expert system is to diagnose and solve the problem of design of assembly. The paper describes an architecture framework for design of assembly expert system that focuses on commercial vehicle seat manufacturing industry.

Keywords: design of assembly, expert system, vehicle seat, mechanical engineering

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Authors: Gennady P. Ginkul, Sergey Yu. Soloviov

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The article proposes to use so-called "quotation-based algorithm" for simulation of decision making process in distributed expert systems and multi-agent systems. The idea was adopted from the techniques for group decision-making. It is based on the assumption that one expert system to perform its logical inference may use rules from another expert system. The application of the algorithm was demonstrated on the example in which the consolidated decision is the decision that requires minimal quotation.

Keywords: backward chaining inference, distributed expert systems, group decision making, multi-agent systems

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Authors: Noura Al-Ajmi, Mohammed A. Almulla

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With the increased utilization of technology devices around the world, healthcare and medical diagnosis are critical issues that people worry about these days. Doctors are doing their best to avoid any medical errors while diagnosing diseases and prescribing the wrong medication. Subsequently, artificial intelligence applications that can be installed on mobile devices such as rule-based expert systems facilitate the task of assisting doctors in several ways. Due to their many advantages, the usage of expert systems has increased recently in health sciences. This work presents a backward rule-based expert system that can be used for a headache diagnosis and medication recommendation system. The structure of the system consists of three main modules, namely the input unit, the processing unit, and the output unit.

Keywords: headache diagnosis system, prescription recommender system, expert system, backward rule-based system

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Authors: Karim Akkouche, Amine Nekmouche, Leyla Bouzid

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This study focuses on the development of a multifunctional Expert System (ES) called post-seismic damage inspection tool (PSDIT), a powerful tool which allows the evaluation, the processing, and the archiving of the collected data stock after earthquakes. PSDIT can be operated by two user types; an ordinary user (ingineer, expert, or architect) for the damage visual inspection and an administrative user for updating the knowledge and / or for adding or removing the ordinary user. The knowledge acquisition is driven by a hierarchical knowledge model, the Information from investigation reports and those acquired through feedback from expert / engineer questionnaires are part.

Keywords: .disaster, damaged structures, damage assessment, expert system

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Authors: Mariam Shah

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The way the human mind interprets and comprehends the world it occupies has long been a topic of discussion amongst philosophers and phenomenologists. This paper will focus predominantly on the ideologies espoused by the phenomenologist Alfred Schutz and will investigate how we attribute meaning to an event through the process of typification, and the production and usage of ‘types' and ‘stereotypes.' This paper will then discuss how subjective ideologies innate within us result in unique and subjective decision outcomes, based on a phenomenologically influenced theoretical framework which will illustrate how we form ‘types’ in order to ‘typecast’ and form judgements of everything and everyone we experience. The framework used will be founded in theory espoused by Alfred Schutz, and will review the different types of knowledge we rely on innately to inform our judgements, the relevance we attribute to the information which we acquire, and how we consciously and unconsciously apply this framework to everyday situations. An assessment will then be made of the potential impact that these subjective meaning structures can present when dispensing justice in criminal courts. This paper will investigate how these subjective meaning structures can influence our consciousness on both a conscious and unconscious level, and how this could potentially result in bias judicial outcomes due to negative ‘types’ or ‘stereotypes.' This paper will ultimately illustrate that we unconsciously and unreflexively use pre-formed types and stereotypes to inform our judgements and give meaning to what we have just experienced.

Keywords: Alfred Schutz, criminal courts, decision making, judicial decision making, phenomenology, Schutzian stereotypes, types, typification

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Authors: Akkouche Karim, Nekmouche Aghiles, Bouzid Leyla

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This study focuses on the development of a multifunctional Expert System (ES) called post-seismic damage inspection tool (PSDIT), a powerful tool which allows the evaluation, the processing and the archiving of the collected data stock after earthquakes. PSDIT can be operated by two user types; an ordinary user (engineer, expert or architect) for the damage visual inspection and an administrative user for updating the knowledge and / or for adding or removing the ordinary user. The knowledge acquisition is driven by a hierarchical knowledge model, the Information from investigation reports and those acquired through feedback from expert / engineer questionnaires are part.

Keywords: buildings, earthquake, seismic damage, damage assessment, expert system

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Ahmad Abdul-Razzak Aboudi Al-Issa

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Thermal and Hydrodynamic are basic aspects in any hydraulic system and therefore, they must be assessed with regard to this aspect before constructing the system. This assessment needs a good expertise in this aspect to obtain an efficient hydraulic system. Therefore, this study aims to build an expert system called Hydraulic System Calculations (HSC) to ensure a smooth operation for the hydraulic system. The expert system (HSC) had been designed and coded in an user-friendly interactive program called Microsoft Visual Basic 2010. The suggested code provides the designer with a number of choices to resolve the problem of hydraulic oil overheating which may arise during the continuous operation of the hydraulic unit. As a result, the HSC can minimize the human errors, effort, time and cost of hydraulic machine design.

Keywords: fluid power, hydraulic system, thermal and hydrodynamic, expert system

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Authors: O. Poleshchuk, E. Komarov

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In this paper, semantic spaces with the properties of completeness and orthogonality (complete orthogonal semantic spaces) were chosen as models of expert evaluations. As the theoretical and practical studies have shown all the properties of complete orthogonal semantic spaces correspond to the thinking activity of experts that is why these semantic spaces were chosen for modeling. Two methods of construction such spaces were proposed. Models of comparative and fuzzy cluster analysis of expert evaluations were developed. The practical application of the developed methods has demonstrated their viability and validity.

Keywords: expert evaluation, comparative analysis, fuzzy cluster analysis, theoretical and practical studies

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Authors: Yudi Efendi, Hasanuddin

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Web-based learning program is the complementary of Printed Teaching Material (BMP) that serves and helps students clarify the parts that require additional explanation or illustration. This research attempts to analyze a prototype of web-based learning program. A prototype of web-based learning program which is interactive is completed with exercises and formative tests. Using qualitative descriptive method, the research presents the analysis from the content expert and media expert. Besides, the interviews from tutors of Political and Social Sciences will be presented. The research also analyzes questionnaires from the students of English and literature program in Jakarta. The questionnaire deals with the display of the content, the audio video, the usability, and the navigation. In the long run, it is expected that the program could be recommended to use by the university as an ideal program.

Keywords: web learning, prototype, content expert, media expert

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Authors: Ahmad Abdul-Razzak Aboudi Al-Issa

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Thermal is the main important aspect in any hydraulic system since it is affected on the hydraulic system performance. Therefore must be simulated the hydraulic system -that was designed- in this aspect before constructing it. In this study, an existed expert system was using to simulate the thermal aspect of a designed hydraulic system that will be used in an industrial field. The expert system which is used in this study is (Hydraulic System Calculations), and its symbol (HSC). HSC had been designed and coded in an interactive program userfriendly named (Microsoft Visual Basic 2010).

Keywords: fluid power, hydraulic system, thermal and hydrodynamic, expert system

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Authors: Amdouni Hamida, Gammoudi Mohamed Mohsen

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In order to help the expert to validate association rules extracted from data, some quality measures are proposed in the literature. We distinguish two categories: objective and subjective measures. The first one depends on a fixed threshold and on data quality from which the rules are extracted. The second one consists on providing to the expert some tools in the objective to explore and visualize rules during the evaluation step. However, the number of extracted rules to validate remains high. Thus, the manually mining rules task is very hard. To solve this problem, we propose, in this paper, a semi-automatic method to assist the expert during the association rule's validation. Our method uses rule-based classification as follow: (i) We transform association rules into classification rules (classifiers), (ii) We use the generated classifiers for data classification. (iii) We visualize association rules with their quality classification to give an idea to the expert and to assist him during validation process.

Keywords: association rules, rule-based classification, classification quality, validation

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Authors: Nael Y. Zabel, Maged E. Georgy, Moheeb E. Ibrahim

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A knowledge-based expert system with the acronym RASPE is developed as an application tool to help decision makers in construction companies make informed decisions about managing risks in pipeline construction projects. Choosing to use expert systems from all available artificial intelligence techniques is due to the fact that an expert system is more suited to representing a domain’s knowledge and the reasoning behind domain-specific decisions. The knowledge-based expert system can capture the knowledge in the form of conditional rules which represent various project scenarios and potential risk mitigation/response actions. The built knowledge in RASPE is utilized through the underlying inference engine that allows the firing of rules relevant to a project scenario into consideration. This paper provides an overview of the knowledge acquisition process and goes about describing the knowledge structure which is divided up into four major modules. The paper shows one module in full detail for illustration purposes and concludes with insightful remarks.

Keywords: expert system, knowledge management, pipeline projects, risk mismanagement

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Authors: Bruno Trstenjak, Dzenana Donko

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Data mining and classification of objects is the process of data analysis, using various machine learning techniques, which is used today in various fields of research. This paper presents a concept of hybrid classification model improved with the expert knowledge. The hybrid model in its algorithm has integrated several machine learning techniques (Information Gain, K-means, and Case-Based Reasoning) and the expert’s knowledge into one. The knowledge of experts is used to determine the importance of features. The paper presents the model algorithm and the results of the case study in which the emphasis was put on achieving the maximum classification accuracy without reducing the number of features.

Keywords: case based reasoning, classification, expert's knowledge, hybrid model

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Authors: Abdulla Almulla, Wafaa Mahdi

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Building materials can make a significant contribution to the level of natural radioactivity in closed dwelling areas. Therefore, developing an expert system for monitoring the activity concentrations (ACs) of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORMs) existing in building materials is useful for limiting the population’s exposure to gamma radiation emitted from those materials. The present work not only is aimed at examining the indoor radon concentration emitted by the building materials that are originated from various countries but are commercially available in Kuwait, but also is aimed at developing an expert system for monitoring the radiation emitted from these materials and classifying it as normal (acceptable) or dangerous (unacceptable). This system makes it possible to always monitor any radiological risks to human health. When detecting high doses of radiation, the system gives warning messages.

Keywords: building materials, NORMs, HNBRA, radionuclides, activity concentrations, expert systems

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Authors: J. F. Viljoen, Catherine Foxcroft

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Expert sight readers rely on their ability to recognize patterns in scores, their inner hearing and prediction skills in order to perform complex sight reading exercises. They also have the ability to observe deviations from expected patterns in musical scores. This increases the “Eye-hand span” (reading ahead of the point of playing) in order to process the elements in the score. The study aims to investigate the gaze patterns of expert and non-expert sight readers focusing on key and time signatures. 20 musicians were tasked with playing 12 sight reading examples composed for one hand and five examples composed for two hands to be performed on a piano keyboard. These examples were composed in different keys and time signatures and included accidentals and changes of time signature to test this theory. Results showed that the experts fixate more and for longer on key and time signatures as well as deviations in examples for two hands than the non-expert group. The inverse was true for the examples for one hand, where expert sight readers showed fewer and shorter fixations on key and time signatures as well as deviations. This seems to suggest that experts focus more on the key and time signatures as well as deviations in complex scores to facilitate sight reading. The examples written for one appeared to be too easy for the expert sight readers, compromising gaze patterns.

Keywords: cognition, eye tracking, musical notation, sight reading

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Authors: Bogdan Walek, Vladimir Bradac, Radim Farana

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Distance learning systems offer useful methods of learning and usually contain final course test or another form of test. The paper proposes web application for evaluating tests using expert system in distance learning systems. Proposed web application is appropriate for didactic tests or tests with results for subsequent studying follow-up courses. Web application works with test questions and uses expert system and LFLC tool for test evaluation. After test evaluation the results are visualized and shown to student.

Keywords: distance learning, test, uncertainty, fuzzy, expert system, student

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Authors: Alena Skalon, Jennifer L. Beaudry

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Eyewitness misidentifications can sometimes lead to wrongful convictions of innocent people. This occurs in part because jurors tend to believe confident eyewitnesses even when the identification took place under suggestive conditions. Empirical research demonstrated that jurors are often unaware of the factors that can influence the reliability of eyewitness identification. Most common legal safeguards that are designed to educate jurors about eyewitness evidence are judicial instructions and expert testimony. To date, very few studies assessed the effectiveness of judicial instructions and most of them found that judicial instructions make jurors more skeptical of eyewitness evidence or do not have any effect on jurors’ judgments. Similar results were obtained for expert testimony. However, none of the previous studies focused on the ability of legal safeguards to improve jurors’ assessment of evidence obtained from suggestive identification procedures—this is one of the gaps addressed by this paper. Furthermore, only three studies investigated whether legal safeguards improve the ultimate accuracy of jurors’ judgments—that is, whether after listening to judicial instructions or expert testimony jurors can differentiate between accurate and inaccurate eyewitnesses. This presentation includes two studies. Both studies used genuine eyewitnesses (i.e., eyewitnesses who watched the crime) and manipulated the suggestiveness of identification procedures. The first study manipulated the presence of judicial instructions; the second study manipulated the presence of one of two types of expert testimony: a traditional, verbal expert testimony or expert testimony accompanied by visual aids. All participant watched a video-recording of an identification procedure and of an eyewitness testimony. The results indicated that neither judicial instructions nor expert testimony affected jurors’ judgments. However, consistent with the previous findings, when the identification procedure was non-suggestive, jurors believed accurate eyewitnesses more often than inaccurate eyewitnesses. When the procedure was suggestive, jurors believed accurate and inaccurate eyewitnesses at the same rate. The paper will discuss the implications of these studies and directions for future research.

Keywords: expert testimony, eyewitness evidence, judicial instructions, jurors’ decision making, legal safeguards

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Authors: Osamah Al Qadoori

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Using cloud computing in educational sectors grow rapidly in UAE. Initially, within Cloud-Learning Environment Students whenever and wherever can remotely join the online-classroom, on the other hand, Cloud-Based Learning is greatly decreasing the infrastructure and the maintenance cost. Nowadays in many schools (K-12), institutes, colleges as well as universities in UAE Cloud-Based Teaching and Learning environments gain a higher demand and concern. Many students don’t use the available online-educational resources effectively. The challenging question is to which extend these educational resources which are installed in the cloud environment are valuable and constructive? In this paper the researcher is seeking to design an expert agent prototype where the huge information being accommodated inside the cloud environment will go through expert filtration before going to be utilized by other clients (students). To achieve this goal, the focus of the present research would be on two different directions the educational human expertise and the automated-educational expert systems.

Keywords: cloud computing, cloud-learning environment, online-classroom, the educational human expertise, the automated-educational expert systems

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Authors: D. K. Sreekantha, T. M. Girish, R. H. Fattepur

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In this article, we have given an overview of medical expert systems, which can be used for the developed of physicians in making decisions such as appropriate, prognostic, and therapeutic decisions which help to organize, store, and gives appropriate medical knowledge needed by physicians and practitioners during medical operations or further treatment. If they support the studies by using these systems, advanced tools in medicine will be developed in the future. New trends in the methodology of development of medical expert systems have also been discussed in this paper. So Authors would like to develop an innovative IT based solution to help doctors in rural areas to gain expertise in Medical Science for treating patients. This paper aims to survey the Soft Computing techniques in treating patient’s problems used throughout the world.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, soft computing, epilepsy

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Authors: Iliya Musa Adamu

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This paper seeks to develop an expert system that would troubleshoot computer network and evaluate the network system performance so as to reduce the workload on technicians and increase the efficiency and effectiveness of solutions proffered to computer network problems. The platform of the system was developed using ASP.NET, whereas the codes are implemented in Visual Basic and integrated with SQL Server 2005. The knowledge base was represented using production rule, whereas the searching method that was used in developing the network troubleshooting expert system is the forward-chaining-rule-based-system. This software tool offers the advantage of providing an immediate solution to most computer network problems encountered by computer users.

Keywords: expert system, forward chaining rule based system, network, troubleshooting

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Authors: Andressa dos Santos Nicolau, João P. da S.C Algusto, Claudio Márcio do N. A. Pereira, Roberto Schirru

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In case of abnormal situations, the nuclear power plant (NPP) operators must follow written procedures to check the condition of the plant and to classify the type of emergency. In this paper, we proposed a Real Time Expert System in order to improve operator’s performance in case of transient or accident with reactor shutdown. The expert system’s knowledge is based on the sequence of events (SoE) of known accident and two emergency procedures of the Brazilian Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) NPP and uses two kinds of knowledge representation: rule and logic trees. The results show that the system was able to classify the response of the automatic protection systems, as well as to evaluate the conditions of the plant, diagnosing the type of occurrence, recovery procedure to be followed, indicating the shutdown root cause, and classifying the emergency level.

Keywords: emergence procedure, expert system, operator support, PWR nuclear power plant

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Authors: Malika Yaici, Soraya Aloui, Sara Semchaoui

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This paper deals with human activity recognition from sensor data. It is an active research area, and the main objective is to obtain a high recognition rate. In this work, a recognition system based on expert systems is proposed; the recognition is performed using the objects, object states, and gestures and taking into account the context (the location of the objects and of the person performing the activity, the duration of the elementary actions and the activity). The system recognizes complex activities after decomposing them into simple, easy-to-recognize activities. The proposed method can be applied to any type of activity. The simulation results show the robustness of our system and its speed of decision.

Keywords: human activity recognition, ubiquitous computing, context-awareness, expert system

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Authors: Kostas Metaxiotis, Kostas Liagkouras

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This study presents an Expert System specially designed to be used with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) for the solution of the portfolio selection problem. The validation of the proposed hybrid System is done by using data sets from Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany and FTSE 100 in UK. The performance of the proposed system is assessed in comparison with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII). The evaluation of the performance is based on different performance metrics that evaluate both the proximity of the solutions to the Pareto front and their dispersion on it. The results show that the proposed hybrid system is efficient for the solution of this kind of problems.

Keywords: expert systems, multi-objective optimization, evolutionary algorithms, portfolio selection

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Authors: M. H. Imam, Imran A. Tasadduq, Abdul-Rahim Ahmad, Fahd M. Aldosari

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Learning outcomes of a course (CLOs) and the abilities at the time of graduation referred to as Student Outcomes (SOs) are required to be assessed for ABET accreditation. A question in an assessment must target a CLO as well as an SO and must represent a required level of competence. This paper presents the idea of an Expert System (ES) to select a proper question to satisfy ABET accreditation requirements. For ES implementation, seven attributes of a question are considered including the learning outcomes and Bloom’s Taxonomy level. A database contains all the data about a course including course content topics, course learning outcomes and the CLO-SO relationship matrix. The knowledge base of the presented ES contains a pool of questions each with tags of the specified attributes. Questions and the attributes represent expert opinions. With implicit rule base the inference engine finds the best possible question satisfying the required attributes. It is shown that the novel idea of such an ES can be implemented and applied to a course with success. An application example is presented to demonstrate the working of the proposed ES.

Keywords: expert system, student outcomes, course learning outcomes, question attributes

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Authors: Malika Yaici, Soraya Aloui, Sara Semchaoui

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Recognition of human activities from sensor data is an active research area, and the main objective is to obtain a high recognition rate. In this work, we propose a recognition system based on expert systems. The proposed system makes the recognition based on the objects, object states, and gestures, taking into account the context (the location of the objects and of the person performing the activity, the duration of the elementary actions, and the activity). This work focuses on complex activities which are decomposed into simple easy to recognize activities. The proposed method can be applied to any type of activity. The simulation results show the robustness of our system and its speed of decision.

Keywords: human activity recognition, ubiquitous computing, context-awareness, expert system

Procedia PDF Downloads 95