Search results for: statistical confidence.

Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Motivated by the recent work of Herbert, Hayen, Macaskill and Walter [Interval estimation for the difference of two independent variances. Communications in Statistics, Simulation and Computation, 40: 744-758, 2011.], we investigate, in this paper, new confidence intervals for the difference between two normal population variances based on the generalized confidence interval of Weerahandi [Generalized Confidence Intervals. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(423): 899-905, 1993.] and the closed form method of variance estimation of Zou, Huo and Taleban [Simple confidence intervals for lognormal means and their differences with environmental applications. Environmetrics 20: 172-180, 2009]. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that our proposed confidence intervals give a better coverage probability than that of the existing confidence interval. Also two new confidence intervals perform similarly based on their coverage probabilities and their average length widths.

Keywords: Confidence interval, generalized confidence interval, the closed form method of variance estimation, variance.

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Authors: Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

Recent articles have addressed the problem to construct the confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution where the parameter space is restricted, see for example Wang [Confidence intervals for the mean of a normal distribution with restricted parameter space. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, Vol. 78, No. 9, 2008, 829–841.], we derived, in this paper, analytic expressions of the coverage probability and the expected length of confidence interval for the normal mean when the whole parameter space is bounded. We also construct the confidence interval for the normal variance with restricted parameter for the first time and its coverage probability and expected length are also mathematically derived. As a result, one can use these criteria to assess the confidence interval for the normal mean and variance when the parameter space is restricted without the back up from simulation experiments.

Keywords: Confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, restricted parameter space.

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Authors: A. Falsafain, S. M. Taheri, M. Mashinchi

Abstract:

Using a set of confidence intervals, we develop a common approach, to construct a fuzzy set as an estimator for unknown parameters in statistical models. We investigate a method to derive the explicit and unique membership function of such fuzzy estimators. The proposed method has been used to derive the fuzzy estimators of the parameters of a Normal distribution and some functions of parameters of two Normal distributions, as well as the parameters of the Exponential and Poisson distributions.

Keywords: Confidence interval. Fuzzy number. Fuzzy estimation.

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Authors: Arunee Wongkha, Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose two new confidence intervals for the inverse of a normal mean with a known coefficient of variation. One of new confidence intervals for the inverse of a normal mean with a known coefficient of variation is constructed based on the pivotal statistic Z where Z is a standard normal distribution and another confidence interval is constructed based on the generalized confidence interval, presented by Weerahandi. We examine the performance of these confidence intervals in terms of coverage probabilities and average lengths via Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: The inverse of a normal mean, confidence interval, generalized confidence intervals, known coefficient of variation.

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Authors: S. Phanyaem

Abstract:

This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: Effect size, confidence interval, Bootstrap Method.

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Authors: Tanuj Kumar, Rakesh Kumar Bajaj

Abstract:

In the present paper, we analyze the vague reliability of k-out-of-n : G system (particularly, series and parallel system) with independent and non-identically distributed components, where the reliability of the components are unknown. The reliability of each component has been estimated using statistical confidence interval approach. Then we converted these statistical confidence interval into triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Based on these triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, the reliability of the k-out-of-n : G system has been calculated. Further, in order to implement the proposed methodology and to analyze the results of k-out-of-n : G system, a numerical example has been provided.

Keywords: Vague set, vague reliability, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy number, k-out-of-n : G system, series and parallel system.

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Authors: Ming-Ta Yang, Jin-Lung Guan, Jhy-Cherng Gu

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to solve the problem of protecting aerial lines from high impedance faults (HIFs) in distribution systems. This investigation successfully applies 3I0 zero sequence current to solve HIF problems. The feature extraction system based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and the feature identification technique found on statistical confidence are then applied to discriminate effectively between the HIFs and the switch operations. Based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) pattern recognition of HIFs is proposed, also. Staged fault testing results demonstrate that the proposed wavelet based algorithm is feasible performance well.

Keywords: Continuous wavelet transform, discrete wavelet transform, high impedance faults, statistical confidence.

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper we proposed the new confidence interval for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. In practice, this situation occurs normally in environment and agriculture sciences where we know the standard deviation is proportional to the mean. As a result, the coefficient of variation of is known. We propose the new confidence interval based on the recent work of Khan [3] and this new confidence interval will compare with our previous work, see, e.g. Niwitpong [5]. We derive analytic expressions for the coverage probability and the expected length of each confidence interval. A numerical method will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their expected lengths.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation.

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Authors: Suparat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In this paper we proposed two new confidence intervals for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. This situation occurs normally in environment and agriculture experiments where the scientist knows the coefficient of variation of their experiments. We propose two new confidence intervals for this problem based on the recent work of Searls [5] and the new method proposed in this paper for the first time. We derive analytic expressions for the coverage probability and the expected length of each confidence interval. Monte Carlo simulation will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their expected lengths.

Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev, Dmitry V. Egorov

Abstract:

The practical efficient approach is suggested for estimation of the seismoacoustic sources energy in C-OTDR monitoring systems. This approach is represents the sequential plan for confidence estimation both the seismoacoustic sources energy, as well the absorption coefficient of the soil. The sequential plan delivers the non-asymptotic guaranteed accuracy of obtained estimates in the form of non-asymptotic confidence regions with prescribed sizes. These confidence regions are valid for a finite sample size when the distributions of the observations are unknown. Thus, suggested estimates are non-asymptotic and nonparametric, and also these estimates guarantee the prescribed estimation accuracy in form of prior prescribed size of confidence regions, and prescribed confidence coefficient value.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, guaranteed estimates, nonparametric estimation, sequential confidence estimation, multichannel monitoring systems.

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Authors: PeiWen Liao, Tsung Hau Jen

Abstract:

This study was conducted to explore the effects of two countries model comparison program in Taiwan and Singapore in TIMSS database. The researchers used Multi-Group Hierarchical Linear Modeling techniques to compare the effects of two different country models and we tested our hypotheses on 4,046 Taiwan students and 4,599 Singapore students in 2007 at two levels: the class level and student (individual) level. Design quality is a class level variable. Student level variables are achievement and self-confidence. The results challenge the widely held view that retention has a positive impact on self-confidence. Suggestions for future research are discussed.

Keywords: Teaching approach, self-confidence, achievement, multi-group HLM.

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Authors: Norazah Mohd Suki, Norbayah Mohd Suki

Abstract:

Online shopping enables consumers to search for information and purchase products or services through direct interaction with online store. This study aims to examine the effect of Internet marketing environment, product characteristics, familiarity and confidence, and promotional offers on consumer online shopping behavior. 200 questionnaires were distributed to the respondents, who are students and staff at a public university in the Federal Territory of Labuan, Malaysia, following simple random sampling as a means of data collection. Multiple regression analysis was used as a statistical measure to determine the strength of the relationship between one dependent variable and a series of other independent variables. Results revealed that familiarity and confidence was found to greatly influence consumer online shopping behavior followed by promotional offers. A clear understanding of consumer online shopping behavior can help marketing managers predict the online shopping rate and evaluate the future growth of online commerce.

Keywords: Internet Marketing Environment, Product Characteristics, Multiple Regression Analysis, Malaysia.

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Authors: Alessandro Barbiero

Abstract:

In this paper some procedures for building confidence intervals for the reliability in stress-strength models are discussed and empirically compared. The particular case of a bivariate normal setup is considered. The confidence intervals suggested are obtained employing approximations or asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators. The coverage and the precision of these intervals are empirically checked through a simulation study. An application to real paired data is also provided.

Keywords: Approximate estimators, asymptotic theory, confidence interval, Monte Carlo simulations, stress-strength, variance estimation.

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Authors: Jeerapa Sappakitkamjorn, Sa-aat Niwitpong

Abstract:

In many practical applications in various areas, such as engineering, science and social science, it is known that there exist bounds on the values of unknown parameters. For example, values of some measurements for controlling machines in an industrial process, weight or height of subjects, blood pressures of patients and retirement ages of public servants. When interval estimation is considered in a situation where the parameter to be estimated is bounded, it has been argued that the classical Neyman procedure for setting confidence intervals is unsatisfactory. This is due to the fact that the information regarding the restriction is simply ignored. It is, therefore, of significant interest to construct confidence intervals for the parameters that include the additional information on parameter values being bounded to enhance the accuracy of the interval estimation. Therefore in this paper, we propose a new confidence interval for the coefficient of variance where the population mean and standard deviation are bounded. The proposed interval is evaluated in terms of coverage probability and expected length via Monte Carlo simulation.  

Keywords: Bounded parameters, coefficient of variation, confidence interval, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: M. Alrasheedi

Abstract:

The double exponential model (DEM), or Laplace distribution, is used in various disciplines. However, there are issues related to the construction of confidence intervals (CI), when using the distribution.In this paper, the properties of DEM are considered with intention of constructing CI based on simulated data. The analysis of pivotal equations for the models here in comparisons with pivotal equations for normal distribution are performed, and the results obtained from simulation data are presented.

Keywords: Confidence intervals, double exponential model, pivotal equations, simulation

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Authors: Sung-Hae Jun, Kyung-Whan Oh

Abstract:

Statistical learning theory was developed by Vapnik. It is a learning theory based on Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension. It also has been used in learning models as good analytical tools. In general, a learning theory has had several problems. Some of them are local optima and over-fitting problems. As well, statistical learning theory has same problems because the kernel type, kernel parameters, and regularization constant C are determined subjectively by the art of researchers. So, we propose an evolutionary statistical learning theory to settle the problems of original statistical learning theory. Combining evolutionary computing into statistical learning theory, our theory is constructed. We verify improved performances of an evolutionary statistical learning theory using data sets from KDD cup.

Keywords: Evolutionary computing, Local optima, Over-fitting, Statistical learning theory

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Zero inflated Strict Arcsine model is a newly developed model which is found to be appropriate in modeling overdispersed count data. In this study, maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters for zero inflated strict arcsine model. Bootstrapping is then employed to compute the confidence intervals for the estimated parameters.

Keywords: overdispersed count data, maximum likelihood estimation, simulated annealing, BCa confidence intervals.

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Authors: Wee A. S. S. Lee, S. Rengasamy, Lim Boon Hooi, C. Varatharajoo, M. Ibrahim K. Azeez

Abstract:

This study was conducted to examine the effectiveness of Teaching Games For Understanding (TGFU) in improving the hockey tactical skills and state self-confidence among 16-year-old students. Two hundred fifty-nine (259) school students were selected for the study based on the intact sampling method. One class was used as the control group (Boys=60, Girls=70), while another as the treatment group (Boys=60, Girls=69) underwent intervention with TGFU in physical education class conducted twice a week for four weeks. The Games Performance Assessment Instrument was used to observe the hockey tactical skills and The State Self-Confidence Inventory was used to determine the state of self-confidence among the students. After four weeks, ANCOVA analysis indicated the treatment groups had significant improvement in hockey tactical skills with F (1, 118) =313.37, p<.05 for school boys, and F (1, 136) =92.62, p<.05 for school girls. The MannWhitney U test also showed the treatment groups had significant improvement in state self-confidence with U=428.50, z= -7.22, p < .05, r=.06 for school boys. ANCOVA analysis also showed the treatment group had significant improvement in state self-confidence with F (1, 136) =74.40, p<.05 for school girls. This indicates that TGFU in a 40-minute physical education class conducted twice a week for four weeks can significantly improve the hockey tactical skills and state self-confidence among 16-year-old students. The findings give new knowledge to PE teachers to implement the TGFU method as it enhances the hockey tactical skills and state selfconfidence among 16-year-old students. Some recommendation was suggested for future research. 

Keywords: Hockey tactical skills, state self-confidence, teaching games for understanding, traditional teaching.

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Authors: John N. Haddad, Serge B. Provost

Abstract:

Given a bivariate normal sample of correlated variables, (Xi, Yi), i = 1, . . . , n, an alternative estimator of Pearson’s correlation coefficient is obtained in terms of the ranges, |Xi − Yi|. An approximate confidence interval for ρX,Y is then derived, and a simulation study reveals that the resulting coverage probabilities are in close agreement with the set confidence levels. As well, a new approximant is provided for the density function of R, the sample correlation coefficient. A mixture involving the proposed approximate density of R, denoted by hR(r), and a density function determined from a known approximation due to R. A. Fisher is shown to accurately approximate the distribution of R. Finally, nearly exact density approximants are obtained on adjusting hR(r) by a 7th degree polynomial.

Keywords: Sample correlation coefficient, density approximation, confidence intervals.

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Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

Abstract:

This paper aimed to study the factors that relate to working behavior of employees at Pakkred Municipality, Nonthaburi Province. A questionnaire was utilized as the tool in collecting information. Descriptive statistics included frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation. Independent- sample t- test, analysis of variance and Pearson Correlation were also used. The findings of this research revealed that the majority of the respondents were female, between 25- 35 years old, married, with a Bachelor degree. The average monthly salary of respondents was between 8,001- 12,000 Baht, and having about 4-7 years of working experience. Regarding the overall working motivation factors, the findings showed that interrelationship, respect, and acceptance were ranked as highly important factors, whereas motivation, remunerations & welfare, career growth, and working conditions were ranked as moderately important factors. Also, overall working behavior was ranked as high. The hypotheses testing revealed that different genders had a different working behavior and had a different way of working as a team, which was significant at the 0.05 confidence level, Moreover, there was a difference among employees with different monthly salary in working behavior, problem- solving and decision making, which all were significant at the 0.05 confidence level. Employees with different years of working experience were found to have work working behavior both individual and as a team at the statistical significance level of 0.01 and 0.05. The result of testing the relationship between motivation in overall working revealed that interrelationship, respect and acceptance from others, career growth, and working conditions related to working behavior at a moderate level, while motivation in performing duties and remunerations and welfares related to working behavior towards the same direction at a low level, with a statistical significance of 0.01.

Keywords: Employees of Pakkred Municipality, Factors, Nonthaburi Province, Working Behavior.

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Authors: Sabrina Gaito, Andrea Greppi, Giuliano Grossi

Abstract:

In this paper we present a technique to speed up ICA based on the idea of reducing the dimensionality of the data set preserving the quality of the results. In particular we refer to FastICA algorithm which uses the Kurtosis as statistical property to be maximized. By performing a particular Johnson-Lindenstrauss like projection of the data set, we find the minimum dimensionality reduction rate ¤ü, defined as the ratio between the size k of the reduced space and the original one d, which guarantees a narrow confidence interval of such estimator with high confidence level. The derived dimensionality reduction rate depends on a system control parameter β easily computed a priori on the basis of the observations only. Extensive simulations have been done on different sets of real world signals. They show that actually the dimensionality reduction is very high, it preserves the quality of the decomposition and impressively speeds up FastICA. On the other hand, a set of signals, on which the estimated reduction rate is greater than 1, exhibits bad decomposition results if reduced, thus validating the reliability of the parameter β. We are confident that our method will lead to a better approach to real time applications.

Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, FastICA algorithm, Higher-order statistics, Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma.

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Authors: Josu Arteche, Jesus Orbe

Abstract:

The log periodogram regression is widely used in empirical applications because of its simplicity, since only a least squares regression is required to estimate the memory parameter, d, its good asymptotic properties and its robustness to misspecification of the short term behavior of the series. However, the asymptotic distribution is a poor approximation of the (unknown) finite sample distribution if the sample size is small. Here the finite sample performance of different nonparametric residual bootstrap procedures is analyzed when applied to construct confidence intervals. In particular, in addition to the basic residual bootstrap, the local and block bootstrap that might adequately replicate the structure that may arise in the errors of the regression are considered when the series shows weak dependence in addition to the long memory component. Bias correcting bootstrap to adjust the bias caused by that structure is also considered. Finally, the performance of the bootstrap in log periodogram regression based confidence intervals is assessed in different type of models and how its performance changes as sample size increases.

Keywords: bootstrap, confidence interval, log periodogram regression, long memory.

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Authors: G. Mesfin, M. Shuhaimi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new optimization techniques for the optimization a gas processing plant uncertain feed and product flows. The problem is first formulated using a continuous linear deterministic approach. Subsequently, the single and joint chance constraint models for steady state process with timedependent uncertainties have been developed. The solution approach is based on converting the probabilistic problems into their equivalent deterministic form and solved at different confidence levels Case study for a real plant operation has been used to effectively implement the proposed model. The optimization results indicate that prior decision has to be made for in-operating plant under uncertain feed and product flows by satisfying all the constraints at 95% confidence level for single chance constrained and 85% confidence level for joint chance constrained optimizations cases.

Keywords: Butane, Feed composition, LPG, Productspecification, Propane.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Ali Hamzeh

Abstract:

Adaptive Genetic Algorithms extend the Standard Gas to use dynamic procedures to apply evolutionary operators such as crossover, mutation and selection. In this paper, we try to propose a new adaptive genetic algorithm, which is based on the statistical information of the population as a guideline to tune its crossover, selection and mutation operators. This algorithms is called Statistical Genetic Algorithm and is compared with traditional GA in some benchmark problems.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithms, Statistical Information ofthe Population, PAUX, SSO.

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Authors: Bharathi P. T, P. Subashini

Abstract:

Ice cover County has a significant impact on rivers as it affects with the ice melting capacity which results in flooding, restrict navigation, modify the ecosystem and microclimate. River ices are made up of different ice types with varying ice thickness, so surveillance of river ice plays an important role. River ice types are captured using infrared imaging camera which captures the images even during the night times. In this paper the river ice infrared texture images are analysed using first-order statistical methods and secondorder statistical methods. The second order statistical methods considered are spatial gray level dependence method, gray level run length method and gray level difference method. The performance of the feature extraction methods are evaluated by using Probabilistic Neural Network classifier and it is found that the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method yields low accuracy. So the features extracted from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method are combined and it is observed that the result of these combined features (First order statistical method + gray level run length method) provides higher accuracy when compared with the features from the first-order statistical method and second-order statistical method alone.

Keywords: Gray Level Difference Method, Gray Level Run Length Method, Kurtosis, Probabilistic Neural Network, Skewness, Spatial Gray Level Dependence Method.

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Authors: Kriangkrai Maneerat, Chutima Prommak

Abstract:

Indoor wireless localization systems have played an important role to enhance context-aware services. Determining the position of mobile objects in complex indoor environments, such as those in multi-floor buildings, is very challenging problems. This paper presents an effective floor estimation algorithm, which can accurately determine the floor where mobile objects located. The proposed algorithm is based on the confidence interval of the summation of online Received Signal Strength (RSS) obtained from the IEEE 802.15.4 Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN).We compare the performance of the proposed algorithm with those of other floor estimation algorithms in literature by conducting a real implementation of WSN in our facility. The experimental results and analysis showed that the proposed floor estimation algorithm outperformed the other algorithms and provided highest percentage of floor accuracy up to 100% with 95-percent confidence interval.

Keywords: Floor estimation algorithm, floor determination, multi-floor building, indoor wireless systems.

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Authors: Vladimir S. Timofeev

Abstract:

In this article the problem of distributional moments estimation is considered. The new approach of moments estimation based on usage of the characteristic function is proposed. By statistical simulation technique author shows that new approach has some robust properties. For calculation of the derivatives of characteristic function there is used numerical differentiation. Obtained results confirmed that author’s idea has a certain working efficiency and it can be recommended for any statistical applications.

Keywords: Characteristic function, distributional moments, robustness, outlier, statistical estimation problem, statistical simulation.

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Authors: R.M.Rani

Abstract:

Chess is one of the indoor games, which improves the level of human confidence, concentration, planning skills and knowledge. The main objective of this paper is to help the chess players to improve their chess openings using data mining techniques. Budding Chess Players usually do practices by analyzing various existing openings. When they analyze and correlate thousands of openings it becomes tedious and complex for them. The work done in this paper is to analyze the best lines of Blackmar- Diemer Gambit(BDG) which opens with White D4... using data mining analysis. It is carried out on the collection of winning games by applying association rules. The first step of this analysis is assigning variables to each different sequence moves. In the second step, the sequence association rules were generated to calculate support and confidence factor which help us to find the best subsequence chess moves that may lead to winning position.

Keywords: Blackmar-Diemer Gambit(BDG), Confidence, sequence Association Rules, Support.

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Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

Abstract:

While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: Balance, Business Survey, Confidence Indicators, Industrial Production, Forecasting.

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Authors: Petar Sarajcev, Josip Vasilj, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

This paper presents a novel statistical description of the counterpoise effective length due to lightning surges, where the (impulse) effective length had been obtained by means of regressive formulas applied to the transient simulation results. The effective length is described in terms of a statistical distribution function, from which median, mean, variance, and other parameters of interest could be readily obtained. The influence of lightning current amplitude, lightning front duration, and soil resistivity on the effective length has been accounted for, assuming statistical nature of these parameters. A method for determining the optimal counterpoise length, in terms of the statistical impulse effective length, is also presented. It is based on estimating the number of dangerous events associated with lightning strikes. Proposed statistical description and the associated method provide valuable information which could aid the design engineer in optimising physical lengths of counterpoises in different grounding arrangements and soil resistivity situations.

Keywords: Counterpoise, Grounding conductor, Effective length, Lightning, Monte Carlo method, Statistical distribution.

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