Search results for: statistical analysis model.

Authors: Pei-Ju Chao, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Wei-Luen Huang, Long-Chang Chen, Te-Jen Su, Wen-Ping Chen

Abstract:

The main goal in this paper is to quantify the quality of different techniques for radiation treatment plans, a back-propagation artificial neural network (ANN) combined with biomedicine theory was used to model thirteen dosimetric parameters and to calculate two dosimetric indices. The correlations between dosimetric indices and quality of life were extracted as the features and used in the ANN model to make decisions in the clinic. The simulation results show that a trained multilayer back-propagation neural network model can help a doctor accept or reject a plan efficiently. In addition, the models are flexible and whenever a new treatment technique enters the market, the feature variables simply need to be imported and the model re-trained for it to be ready for use.

Keywords: neural network, dosimetric index, radiation treatment, tumor

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Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

Abstract:

Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km², is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R², which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period between 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, Modeling, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT, Water Yield, Watershed level.

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: Fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility.

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Authors: A. Nielen, S. Mütze-Niewöhner, C. M. Schlick

Abstract:

In view of growing competition in the service sector, services are as much in need of modeling, analysis and improvement as business or working processes. Graphical process models are important means to capture process-related know-how for an effective management of the service process. In this contribution, a human performance analysis of process model development paying special attention to model development time and the working method was conducted. It was found that modelers with higher application experience need significantly less time for mental activities than modelers with lower application experience, spend more time on labeling graphical elements, and achieved higher process model quality in terms of activity label quality.

Keywords: Model quality, predetermined motion time system, process modeling, working method.

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Authors: Hamad K. Al-Khalid, Ayman M. Alaskari, Samy E. Oraby

Abstract:

Hardness of the widely used structural steel is of vital importance since it may help in the determination of many mechanical properties of a material under loading situations. In order to obtain reliable information for design, properties homogeneity should be validated. In the current study the hardness variation over the different diameters of the same AISI 4140 bar is investigated. Measurements were taken on the two faces of the stock at equally spaced eight sectors and fifteen layers. Statistical and graphical analysis are performed to asses the distribution of hardness measurements over the specified area. Hardness measurements showed some degree of dispersion with about ± 10% of its nominal value provided by manufacturer. Hardness value is found to have a slight decrease trend as the diameter is reduced. However, an opposite behavior is noticed regarding the sequence of the sector indicating a nonuniform distribution over the same area either on the same face or considering the corresponding sector on the other face (cross section) of the same material bar.

Keywords: Hardness; Hardness variation; AISI 4140 steel; Bardiameter; Statistical Analysis.

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Authors: B. R. Shen, J. R. Wang, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih, Y. Chiang, Y. F. Chang, Y. H. Huang

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In this research, TRACE code with the interface code-SNAP was used to simulate and analyze the SBO (station blackout) accident which occurred in Maanshan PWR (pressurized water reactor) nuclear power plant (NPP). There are four main steps in this research. First, the SBO accident data of Maanshan NPP were collected. Second, the TRACE/SNAP model of Maanshan NPP was established by using these data. Third, this TRACE/SNAP model was used to perform the simulation and analysis of SBO accident. Finally, the simulation and analysis of SBO with mitigation equipments was performed. The analysis results of TRACE are consistent with the data of Maanshan NPP. The mitigation equipments of Maanshan can maintain the safety of Maanshan in the SBO according to the TRACE predictions.

Keywords: PWR, TRACE, SBO, Maanshan.

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Authors: Francis Chinweuba Eboh, Peter Ahlström, Tobias Richards

Abstract:

Entropy, as an outcome of the second law of thermodynamics, measures the level of irreversibility associated with any process. The identification and reduction of irreversibility in the energy conversion process helps to improve the efficiency of the system. The entropy of pure substances known as absolute entropy is determined at an absolute reference point and is useful in the thermodynamic analysis of chemical reactions; however, municipal solid waste (MSW) is a structurally complicated material with unknown absolute entropy. In this work, an empirical model to calculate the absolute entropy of MSW based on the content of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, sulphur, and chlorine on a dry ash free basis (daf) is presented. The proposed model was derived from 117 relevant organic substances which represent the main constituents in MSW with known standard entropies using statistical analysis. The substances were divided into different waste fractions; namely, food, wood/paper, textiles/rubber and plastics waste and the standard entropies of each waste fraction and for the complete mixture were calculated. The correlation of the standard entropy of the complete waste mixture derived was found to be s^o_msw= 0.0101C + 0.0630H + 0.0106O + 0.0108N + 0.0155S + 0.0084Cl (kJ.K^-1.kg) and the present correlation can be used for estimating the absolute entropy of MSW by using the elemental compositions of the fuel within the range of 10.3% ≤ C ≤ 95.1%, 0.0% ≤ H ≤ 14.3%, 0.0% ≤ O ≤ 71.1%, 0.0 ≤ N ≤ 66.7%, 0.0% ≤ S ≤ 42.1%, 0.0% ≤ Cl ≤ 89.7%. The model is also applicable for the efficient modelling of a combustion system in a waste-to-energy plant.

Keywords: Absolute entropy, irreversibility, municipal solid waste, waste-to-energy.

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Authors: Joanna Sooknanan, Donna Comissiong

Abstract:

We propose a phenomenological model for the process of polymer desorption. In so doing, we omit the usual theoretical approach of incorporating a fictitious viscoelastic stress term into the flux equation. As a result, we obtain a model that captures the essence of the phenomenon of trapping skinning, while preserving the integrity of the experimentally verified Fickian law for diffusion. An appropriate asymptotic analysis is carried out, and a parameter is introduced to represent the speed of the desorption front. Numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the desorption dynamics of the model. Recommendations are made for future modifications of the model, and provisions are made for the inclusion of experimentally determined frontal speeds.

Keywords: Phenomenological Model, Polymer, Desorption, Trapping Skinning

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Authors: Omer Rashid, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Axel Panning, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

It is hard to percept the interaction process with machines when visual information is not available. In this paper, we have addressed this issue to provide interaction through visual techniques. Posture recognition is done for American Sign Language to recognize static alphabets and numbers. 3D information is exploited to obtain segmentation of hands and face using normal Gaussian distribution and depth information. Features for posture recognition are computed using statistical and geometrical properties which are translation, rotation and scale invariant. Hu-Moment as statistical features and; circularity and rectangularity as geometrical features are incorporated to build the feature vectors. These feature vectors are used to train SVM for classification that recognizes static alphabets and numbers. For the alphabets, curvature analysis is carried out to reduce the misclassifications. The experimental results show that proposed system recognizes posture symbols by achieving recognition rate of 98.65% and 98.6% for ASL alphabets and numbers respectively.

Keywords: Feature Extraction, Posture Recognition, Pattern Recognition, Application.

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Authors: Qasem Qananwah, Ahmad Dagamseh, Hiam AlQuran, Khalid Shaker Ibrahim

Abstract:

Blood pressure helps the physicians greatly to have a deep insight into the cardiovascular system. The determination of individual blood pressure is a standard clinical procedure considered for cardiovascular system problems. The conventional techniques to measure blood pressure (e.g. cuff method) allows a limited number of readings for a certain period (e.g. every 5-10 minutes). Additionally, these systems cause turbulence to blood flow; impeding continuous blood pressure monitoring, especially in emergency cases or critically ill persons. In this paper, the most important statistical features in the photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals were extracted to estimate the blood pressure noninvasively. PPG signals from more than 40 subjects were measured and analyzed and 12 features were extracted. The features were fed to principal component analysis (PCA) to find the most important independent features that have the highest correlation with blood pressure. The results show that the stiffness index means and standard deviation for the beat-to-beat heart rate were the most important features. A model representing both features for Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) and Diastolic Blood Pressure (DBP) was obtained using a statistical regression technique. Surface fitting is used to best fit the series of data and the results show that the error value in estimating the SBP is 4.95% and in estimating the DBP is 3.99%.

Keywords: Blood pressure, noninvasive optical system, PCA, continuous monitoring.

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Authors: Danielle Shackley, Yetunde Folajimi

Abstract:

As more people turn to the internet seeking health related information, there is more risk of finding false, inaccurate, or dangerous information. Sentiment analysis is a natural language processing technique that assigns polarity scores of text, ranging from positive, neutral and negative. In this research, we evaluate the weight of a sentiment analysis feature added to fake health news classification models. The dataset consists of existing reliably labeled health article headlines that were supplemented with health information collected about COVID-19 from social media sources. We started with data preprocessing, tested out various vectorization methods such as Count and TFIDF vectorization. We implemented 3 Naive Bayes classifier models, including Bernoulli, Multinomial and Complement. To test the weight of the sentiment analysis feature on the dataset, we created benchmark Naive Bayes classification models without sentiment analysis, and those same models were reproduced and the feature was added. We evaluated using the precision and accuracy scores. The Bernoulli initial model performed with 90% precision and 75.2% accuracy, while the model supplemented with sentiment labels performed with 90.4% precision and stayed constant at 75.2% accuracy. Our results show that the addition of sentiment analysis did not improve model precision by a wide margin; while there was no evidence of improvement in accuracy, we had a 1.9% improvement margin of the precision score with the Complement model. Future expansion of this work could include replicating the experiment process, and substituting the Naive Bayes for a deep learning neural network model.

Keywords: Sentiment analysis, Naive Bayes model, natural language processing, topic analysis, fake health news classification model.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.

Keywords: Masking, Bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life.

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Authors: A. Amar, N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Kerimkulov Zhambul, N. Amangieldy

Abstract:

Analysis of the elastic scattering of protons on 6,7Li nuclei has been done in the framework of the optical model at the beam energies up to 50 MeV. Differential cross sections for the 6,7Li + p scattering were measured over the proton laboratory–energy range from 400 to 1050 keV. The elastic scattering of 6,7Li+p data at different proton incident energies have been analyzed using singlefolding model. In each case the real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Normalization factor NR is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 0.84.

Keywords: scattering of protons on 6, 7Li nuclei, Esis88 Codesingle-folding model, phenomenological.

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Authors: Anshu Manik, Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Siddhartha K. Khaitan

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Rutting is one of the major load-related distresses in airport flexible pavements. Rutting in paving materials develop gradually with an increasing number of load applications, usually appearing as longitudinal depressions in the wheel paths and it may be accompanied by small upheavals to the sides. Significant research has been conducted to determine the factors which affect rutting and how they can be controlled. Using the experimental design concepts, a series of tests can be conducted while varying levels of different parameters, which could be the cause for rutting in airport flexible pavements. If proper experimental design is done, the results obtained from these tests can give a better insight into the causes of rutting and the presence of interactions and synergisms among the system variables which have influence on rutting. Although traditionally, laboratory experiments are conducted in a controlled fashion to understand the statistical interaction of variables in such situations, this study is an attempt to identify the critical system variables influencing airport flexible pavement rut depth from a statistical DoE perspective using real field data from a full-scale test facility. The test results do strongly indicate that the response (rut depth) has too much noise in it and it would not allow determination of a good model. From a statistical DoE perspective, two major changes proposed for this experiment are: (1) actual replication of the tests is definitely required, (2) nuisance variables need to be identified and blocked properly. Further investigation is necessary to determine possible sources of noise in the experiment.

Keywords: Airport Pavement, Design of Experiments, Rutting, NAPTF.

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Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

Abstract:

A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement, environmental sustainability.

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Authors: Nitish Kumar Vaja, Oumar Barry, Brian DeJong

Abstract:

Aeolian vibrations are the major cause for the failure of conductor cables. Using a Stockbridge damper reduces these vibrations and increases the life span of the conductor cable. Designing an efficient Stockbridge damper that suits the conductor cable requires a robust mathematical model with minimum assumptions. However it is not easy to analytically model the complex geometry of the messenger. Therefore an equivalent stiffness must be determined so that it can be used in the analytical model. This paper examines the bending stiffness of the cable and discusses the effect of this stiffness on the natural frequencies. The obtained equivalent stiffness compensates for the assumption of modeling the messenger as a rod. The results from the free vibration analysis of the analytical model with the equivalent stiffness is validated using the full scale finite element model of the Stockbridge damper.

Keywords: Equivalent stiffness, finite element model, free vibration response, Stockbridge damper.

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

Abstract:

Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: Meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design.

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Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano

Abstract:

Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control and PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act). Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models include COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them related to the mechanistic and reductionist principles over which those models are built. As systems theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of organizations, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in some organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.

Keywords: GRC, Maturity Model, Systems Theory, Viable System Model.

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Authors: A. Beheshti, S. Salkhordeh, H. Amini

Abstract:

Based on statistics released by Islamic Republic of Iran Police (IRIP), from among the total 9555 motorcycle accidents that happened in 2007, 857 riders died and 11219 one got injured. If we also consider the death toll and injuries of other vehicles' accidents resulted from traffic violation by motorcycle riders, then paying attention to the motorcycle accidents seems to be very necessary. Therefore, in this study we tried to investigate the traits and issues related to production, application, and training, along with causes of motorcycle accidents from 4 perspectives of road, human, environment and vehicle and also based on statistical and geographical analysis of accident-sheets prepared by Iran Road Patrol Department (IRPD). Unfamiliarity of riders with regulations and techniques of motorcycling, disuse of safety equipments, inefficiency of roads and design of junctions for safe trafficking of motorcycles and finally the lack of sufficient control of responsible organizations are among the major causes which lead to these accidents.

Keywords: Motorcycle, Motorcycle riders, Road accidents, Statistical analysis of accidents.

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Authors: G. Balakayeva, A. Aktymbayeva

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider components of discrete event imitating model, implementing a simulation model by using JAVA and performing an input analysis of the data and an output analysis of the simulation results. Was lead development of imitating model of mass service system with n (n≥1) devices of service. On the basis of the developed process of a multithreading simulated the distributed processes with presence of synchronization. Was developed the algorithm of event-oriented simulation, was received results of system functioning with n devices of service.

Keywords: Imitating modeling, Mass service system, Multi agentsystem.

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Authors: Markus Link, Manfred Spraul, Hartmut Schaefer, Fang Fang, Birk Schuetz

Abstract:

High Resolution NMR Spectroscopy offers unique screening capabilities for food quality and safety by combining non-targeted and targeted screening in one analysis.

The objective is to demonstrate, that due to its extreme reproducibility NMR can detect smallest changes in concentrations of many components in a mixture, which is best monitored by statistical evaluation however also delivers reliable quantification results.

The methodology typically uses a 400 MHz high resolution instrument under full automation after minimized sample preparation.

For example one fruit juice analysis in a push button operation takes at maximum 15 minutes and delivers a multitude of results, which are automatically summarized in a PDF report.

The method has been proven on fruit juices, where so far unknown frauds could be detected. In addition conventional targeted parameters are obtained in the same analysis. This technology has the advantage that NMR is completely quantitative and concentration calibration only has to be done once for all compounds. Since NMR is so reproducible, it is also transferable between different instruments (with same field strength) and laboratories. Based on strict SOP`s, statistical models developed once can be used on multiple instruments and strategies for compound identification and quantification are applicable as well across labs.

Keywords: Automated solution, NMR, non-targeted screening, targeted screening.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries. We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model. We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the banking and finance industry.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Forecasting, Gross DomesticProduct, Neuro-Fuzzy

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Authors: Mohammadreza Ashouri, Majid Bayatian

Abstract:

Analysis of fire data is a way for the implementation of any plan to improve the level of safety in cities. Such an analysis is able to reveal signs of changes in a given period and can be used as a measure of safety. The information of about 66,341 fires (from 2002 to 2012) released by Tehran Safety Services and Fire-Fighting Organization and data on the population and the number of households provided by Tehran Municipality and the Statistical Yearbook of Iran were extracted. Using the data, the fire changes, the rate of injuries, and mortality rate were determined and analyzed. The rate of injuries and mortality rate of fires per one million population of Tehran were 59.58% and 86.12%, respectively. During the study period, the number of fires and fire stations increased by 104.38% and 102.63%, respectively. Most fires (9.21%) happened in the 4th District of Tehran. The results showed that the recorded fire data have not been systematically planned for fire prevention since one of the ways to reduce injuries caused by fires is to develop a systematic plan for necessary actions in emergency situations. To determine a reliable source for fire prevention, the stages, definitions of working processes and the cause and effect chains should be considered. Therefore, a comprehensive statistical system should be developed for reported and recorded fire data.

Keywords: Fire statistics, fire analysis, accident prevention, Tehran.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.

Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.

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Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

Abstract:

We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid homoeostatic mechanism in endocrine system. We introduce to this system two types of couplings and delay. In our model, feedback controls the secretion of thyroid hormones and delay reflects time lags required for transportation of the hormones. The influence of delayed feedback on the stability behaviour of the system is discussed. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. This system of equations describes normal activity of the thyroid and also a couple of types of malfunctions (e.g. hyperthyroidism).

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, ordinary differential equations, endocrine system, stability analysis.

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Authors: Suman Senapati, Goutam Saha

Abstract:

Real world Speaker Identification (SI) application differs from ideal or laboratory conditions causing perturbations that leads to a mismatch between the training and testing environment and degrade the performance drastically. Many strategies have been adopted to cope with acoustical degradation; wavelet based Bayesian marginal model is one of them. But Bayesian marginal models cannot model the inter-scale statistical dependencies of different wavelet scales. Simple nonlinear estimators for wavelet based denoising assume that the wavelet coefficients in different scales are independent in nature. However wavelet coefficients have significant inter-scale dependency. This paper enhances this inter-scale dependency property by a Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function (CS-PDF) related to the family of Spherically Invariant Random Processes (SIRPs) in Log Gabor Wavelet (LGW) domain and corresponding joint shrinkage estimator is derived by Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimator. A framework is proposed based on these to denoise speech signal for automatic speaker identification problems. The robustness of the proposed framework is tested for Text Independent Speaker Identification application on 100 speakers of POLYCOST and 100 speakers of YOHO speech database in three different noise environments. Experimental results show that the proposed estimator yields a higher improvement in identification accuracy compared to other estimators on popular Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based speaker model and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features.

Keywords: Speaker Identification, Log Gabor Wavelet, Bayesian Bivariate Estimator, Circularly Symmetric Probability Density Function, SIRP.

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Authors: C. Castro-Egler, A. Durán-Escalante, A. García-González

Abstract:

This paper presents a method to generate a finite element model of the human auditory inner ear system. The geometric model has been realized using 2D images from a virtual model of temporal bones. A point cloud has been gotten manually from those images to construct a whole mesh with hexahedral elements. The main difference with the predecessor models is the spiral shape of the cochlea with its three scales completely defined: scala tympani, scala media and scala vestibuli; which are separate by basilar membrane and Reissner membrane. To validate this model, numerical simulations have been realised with two models: an isolated inner ear and a whole model of human auditory system. Ideal conditions of displacement are applied over the oval window in the isolated Inner Ear model. The whole model is made up of the outer auditory channel, the tympani, the ossicular chain, and the inner ear. The boundary condition for the whole model is 1Pa over the auditory channel entrance. The numerical simulations by FEM have been done using a harmonic analysis with a frequency range between 100-10.000 Hz with an interval of 100Hz. The following results have been carried out: basilar membrane displacement; the scala media pressure according to the cochlea length and the transfer function of the middle ear normalized with the pressure in the tympanic membrane. The basilar membrane displacements and the pressure in the scala media make it possible to validate the response in frequency of the basilar membrane.

Keywords: Finite elements method, human auditory system model, numerical analysis, 3D modelling cochlea.

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Authors: Suleyman A. Muyibi, Munirat, A. Idris, Saedi Jami, Parveen Jamal, Mohd Ismail Abdul Karim

Abstract:

In this study, statistical optimization design was used to study the optimum disinfection parameters using defatted crude Moringa oleifera seed extracts against Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacterial cells. The classical one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) and response surface methodology (RSM) was used. The possible optimum range of dosage, contact time and mixing rate from the OFAT study were 25mg/l to 200mg/l, 30minutes to 240 minutes and 100rpm to 160rpm respectively. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the statistical optimization using faced centered central composite design showed that dosage, contact time and mixing rate were highly significant. The optimum disinfection range was 125mg/l, at contact time of 30 minutes with mixing rate of 120 rpm. 

Keywords: E.coli, disinfection, Moringa oleifera, response surface methodology.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chang, A. L. Ho, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih

Abstract:

The purpose of the study is to analyze the load rejection transient of ABWR by using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes. This study has some steps. First, using TRACE, PARCS, and SNAP codes establish the model of ABWR. Second, the key parameters are identified to refine the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model further in the frame of a steady state analysis. Third, the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model is used to perform the load rejection transient analysis. Finally, the FSAR data are used to compare with the analysis results. The results of TRACE/PARCS are consistent with the FSAR data for the important parameters. It indicates that the TRACE/PARCS/SNAP model of ABWR has a good accuracy in the load rejection transient.

Keywords: ABWR, TRACE, PARCS, SNAP.

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Authors: Y. Lu, X. S. Qin

Abstract:

Extensive rainfall disaggregation approaches have been developed and applied in climate change impact studies such as flood risk assessment and urban storm water management.In this study, five rainfall models that were capable ofdisaggregating daily rainfall data into hourly one were investigated for the rainfall record in theChangi Airport, Singapore. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of hourly rainfall in Singapore, and (ii) to evaluate the performance of variousdisaggregation models. The used models included: (i) Rectangular pulse Poisson model (RPPM), (ii) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), (iii) Bartlett-Lewis model with 2 cell types (BL2C), (iv) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular with cell depth distribution dependent on duration (BLRD), and (v) Neyman-Scott Rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). All of these models werefitted using hourly rainfall data ranging from 1980 to 2005 (which was obtained from Changimeteorological station).The study results indicated that the weight scheme of inversely proportional variance could deliver more accurateoutputs for fitting rainfall patterns in tropical areas, and BLRPM performedrelatively better than other disaggregation models.

Keywords: Rainfall disaggregation, statistical properties, poisson processed, Bartlett-Lewis model, Neyman-Scott model.

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