Search results for: railway risk reduction

Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alexandr Bozek, Eduard Bakos, Jiri Dvorak, Alena Bumbova, Lenka Jesonkova

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The case study deals with the semi-quantitative risk assessment of water resource earmarked for the emergency supply of population with drinking water. The risk analysis has been based on previously identified hazards/sensitivities of the elements of hydrogeological structure and technological equipment of ground water resource as well as on the assessment of the levels of hazard, sensitivity and criticality of individual resource elements in the form of point indexes. The following potential sources of hazard have been considered: natural disasters caused by atmospheric and geological changes, technological hazards, and environmental burdens. The risk analysis has proved that the assessed risks are acceptable and the water resource may be integrated into a crisis plan of a given region.

Keywords: Crisis, emergency, frequency, ground water, hazard, point index, risk, sensitivity, water supply.

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Authors: Da-kuan Wei, Xian-zhong Zhou, Dong-jun Xin, Zhi-wei Chen

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The information systems with incomplete attribute values and fuzzy decisions commonly exist in practical problems. On the base of the notion of variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and the rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, the variable rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system is constructed, which is the generalization of the variable precision rough set model for incomplete information system and that of rough set model for incomplete and fuzzy decision information system. The knowledge reduction and heuristic algorithm, built on the method and theory of precision reduction, are proposed.

Keywords: Rough set, Incomplete and fuzzy decision information system, Limited valued tolerance relation, Knowledge reduction, Variable rough set model

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Authors: Yu-Chen Lin, Tzong-Yeang Lee

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This study aims to assess the vulnerability and risk of the coastal areas of Taijiang to abnormal oceanographic phenomena. In addition, this study aims to investigate and collect data regarding the disaster losses, land utilization, and other social, economic, and environmental issues in these coastal areas to construct a coastal vulnerability and risk map based on the obtained climate-change risk assessment results. Considering the indexes of the three coastal vulnerability dimensions, namely, man-made facilities, environmental geography, and social economy, this study adopted the equal weighting process and Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze the vulnerability of these coastal areas to disasters caused by climatic changes. Among the areas with high coastal vulnerability to climatic changes, three towns had the highest coastal vulnerability and four had the highest relative vulnerability. Areas with lower disaster risks were found to be increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by climatic changes as time progresses.

Keywords: Climate change, coastal disaster, risk, vulnerability

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of history of obesity for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, family history, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eleven studies of family history and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that family history of obesity is a significant risk factor of overweight and /or obesity in offspring; risk for offspring overweight and/or obesity associated with family history varies depending of the family members included in the analysis; and when family history of obesity is present, the offspring are at greater risk for developing obesity or overweight. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: Childhood obesity, overweight, family history, risk factors, meta-analysis.

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Authors: Jindřiška Šedová

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In the past 20 years the economy of the Czech Republic has experienced substantial changes. In the 1990s the development was affected by the transformation which sought to establish the right conditions for privatization and creation of elementary market relations. In the last decade the characteristic elements such as private ownership and corresponding institutional framework have been strengthened. This development was marked by the accession of the Czech Republic to the EU. The Czech Republic is striving to reduce the difference between its level of economic development and the quality of institutional framework in comparison with other developed countries. The process of finding the adequate solutions has been hampered by the negative impact of the world financial crisis on the Czech Republic and the standard of living of its inhabitants. This contribution seeks to address the question of whether and to which extent the economic development of the transitive Czech economy is affected by the change in behaviour of households and their tendency to consumption, i.e. in the sense of reduction or increase in demand for goods and services. It aims to verify whether the increasing trend of household indebtedness and decreasing trend of saving pose a significant risk in the Czech Republic. At a general level the analysis aims to contribute to finding an answer to the question of whether the debt increase of Czech households is connected to the risk of "eating through" the borrowed money and whether Czech households risk falling into a debt trap. In addition to household indebtedness risks in the Czech Republic the analysis will focus on identification of specifics of the transformation phase of the Czech economy in comparison with the EU countries, or selected OECD countries.

Keywords: household indebtedness, household consumption, credits, financial literacy

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alexandr Bozek, Alena Bumbova, Jiri Dvorak, Lenka Jesonkova

Abstract:

The contamination of 15 ground water resources of a selected region earmarked for the emergency supply of population has been monitored. The resources have been selected on the basis of previous assessment of natural conditions and the exploitation of territory in their surroundings and infiltration area. Two resources out of 15 have been excluded from further exploitation, because they have not met some of the 72 assessed hygienic indicators of extended analysis. The remaining 13 resources have been the subject of health risk analysis in relation to the contamination by arsenic, lead, cadmium, mercury, nickel and manganese. The risk analysis proved that all 13 resources meet health standards with regard to the above mentioned purposefully selected elements and may thus be included into crisis plans. Water quality of ground resources may be assessed in the same way with regard to other contaminants.

Keywords: Contamination, drinking water, emergency supply, health risk, hygienic limits, metals, risk assessment.

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Authors: Hatem A. Khater, A. Baith Mohamed, Sara M. Kamel

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Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), is a proposed technique to identify not only the risk factors but also the causes of the appearance of the risk factors in software development life cycle. The method is based on analyzing the probable causes of software development failures before they become problems and adversely affect a project. It uses Fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the probability of a particular system level failures that are defined by A Taxonomy for Sources of Software Development Risk to deduce failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system by using Boolean logic to combine a series of lower-level events. The major purpose of this paper is to use the probabilistic calculations of Fault Tree Analysis approach to determine all possible causes that lead to software development risk occurrence

Keywords: Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Taxonomy for Software Development Risks (TSDR), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA).

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Authors: Kamaljit Singh Sokhal, Gangacharyulu Dasoraju, Vijaya Kumar Bulasara

Abstract:

Biopolymers are popular in many areas, like petrochemicals, food industry and agriculture due to their favorable properties like environment-friendly, availability, and cost. In this study, a biopolymer gum Arabic was used to find its effect on the pressure drop at various concentrations (100 ppm – 300 ppm) with various Reynolds numbers (10000 – 45000). A rheological study was also done by using the same concentrations to find the effect of the shear rate on the shear viscosity. Experiments were performed to find the effect of injection of gum Arabic directly near the boundary layer and to investigate its effect on the maximum possible drag reduction. Experiments were performed on a test section having i.d of 19.50 mm and length of 3045 mm. The polymer solution was injected from the top of the test section by using a peristaltic pump. The concentration of the polymer solution and the Reynolds number were used as parameters to get maximum possible drag reduction. Water was circulated through a centrifugal pump having a maximum 3000 rpm and the flow rate was measured by using rotameter. Results were validated by using Virk's maximum drag reduction asymptote. A maximum drag reduction of 62.15% was observed with the maximum concentration of gum Arabic, 300 ppm. The solution was circulated in the closed loop to find the effect of degradation of polymers with a number of cycles on the drag reduction percentage. It was observed that the injection of the polymer solution in the boundary layer was showing better results than premixed solutions.

Keywords: Drag reduction, shear viscosity, gum Arabic, injection point.

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Authors: Şehri Çınar, Aydın Akın

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This study was conducted Razakı grape variety (Vitis vinifera L.) and its vine which was aged 19 was grown on 5 BB rootstock in a vegetation period of 2014 in Afyon province in Turkey. In this research, it was investigated whether the applications of Control (C), 1/3 Cluster Tip Reduction (1/3 CTR), Shoot Tip Reduction (STR), 1/3 CTR + STR, Boric Acid (BA), 1/3 CTR + BA, STR + BA, 1/3 CTR + STR + BA on yield and yield components of Razakı grape variety. The results were obtained as the highest fresh grape yield (7.74 kg/vine) with C application; as the highest cluster weight (244.62 g) with STR application; as the highest 100 berry weight (504.08 g) with C application; as the highest maturity index (36.89) with BA application; as the highest must yield (695.00 ml) with BA and (695.00 ml) with 1/3 CTR + STR + BA applications; as the highest intensity of L* color (46.93) with STR and (46.10) with 1/3 CTR + STR + BA applications; as the highest intensity of a* color (-5.37) with 1/3 CTR + STR and (-5.01) with STR, as the highest intensity of b* color (12.59) with STR application. The shoot tip reduction to increase cluster weight and boric acid application to increase maturity index of Razakı grape variety can be recommended.

Keywords: Razakı, 1/3 cluster tip reduction, shoot tip reduction, boric acid, yield and yield components.

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Authors: Anirudha Narain, Dinesh Chandra, Ravindra K. S.

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A computationally simple approach of model order reduction for single input single output (SISO) and linear timeinvariant discrete systems modeled in frequency domain is proposed in this paper. Denominator of the reduced order model is determined using fuzzy C-means clustering while the numerator parameters are found by matching time moments and Markov parameters of high order system.

Keywords: Model Order reduction, Discrete-time system, Fuzzy C-Means Clustering, Padé approximation.

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Authors: Chunming Xu

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Sparse representation which can represent high dimensional data effectively has been successfully used in computer vision and pattern recognition problems. However, it doesn-t consider the label information of data samples. To overcome this limitation, we develop a novel dimensionality reduction algorithm namely dscriminatively regularized sparse subspace learning(DR-SSL) in this paper. The proposed DR-SSL algorithm can not only make use of the sparse representation to model the data, but also can effective employ the label information to guide the procedure of dimensionality reduction. In addition,the presented algorithm can effectively deal with the out-of-sample problem.The experiments on gene-expression data sets show that the proposed algorithm is an effective tool for dimensionality reduction and gene-expression data classification.

Keywords: sparse representation, dimensionality reduction, labelinformation, sparse subspace learning, gene-expression data classification.

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Authors: Thammarak Srimarut, Witthaya Mekhum

Abstract:

This study analyzed and developed a model for monk’s food bowl production on occupational health safety and environment at work for the encouragement of Rattanakosin local wisdom at Banbart Community. The process of blowpipe welding was necessary to produce the bowl which was very dangerous or 93.59% risk. After the employment of new sitting posture, the work risk was lower 48.41% or moderate risk. When considering in details, it was found that: 1) the traditional sitting posture could create work risk at 88.89% while the new sitting posture could create the work risk at 58.86%. 2) About the environmental pollution, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 61.11% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the polluted fume from welding at 40.47%. 3) On accidental risk, with the traditional sitting posture, workers exposed to the accident from welding at 94.44% while with the new sitting posture workers exposed to the accident from welding at 62.54%.

Keywords: Occupational health safety, environment at work, Monk’s food bowl.

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Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch

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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.

Keywords: Boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones.

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Authors: Chen Wu, Lijuan Wang

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Some invariant properties of incomplete information systems homomorphism are studied in this paper. Demand conditions of tolerance class, attribute reduction, indispensable attribute and dispensable attribute being invariant under homomorphism in incomplete information system are revealed and discussed. The existing condition of endohomomorphism on an incomplete information system is also explored. It establishes some theoretical foundations for further investigations on incomplete information systems in rough set theory, like in information systems.

Keywords: Attribute reduction, homomorphism, incomplete information system, rough set, tolerance relation.

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Authors: Anca E. Gurzau, Alexandru Coman, Eugen S. Gurzau, Marinela Penes, Daniela Dumitrescu, DorinMarchean, Ioan Chera

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The environment pollution with pesticides and heavy metals is a recognized problem nowadays, with extension to the global scale the tendency of amplification. Even with all the progress in the environmental field, both in the emphasize of the effect of the pollutants upon health, the linked studies environment-health are insufficient, not only in Romania but all over the world also. We aim to describe the particular situation in Romania regarding the uncontrolled use of pesticides, to identify and evaluate the risk zones for health and the environment in Romania, with the final goal of designing adequate programs for reduction and control of the risk sources. An exploratory study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the pesticide use problem in a population living in Saliste, a rural setting in Transylvania, Romania. The significant stakeholders in Saliste region were interviewed and a sample from the population living in Saliste area was selected to fill in a designed questionnaire. All the selected participants declared that they used pesticides in their activities for more than one purpose. They declared they annually applied pesticides for a period of time between 11 and 30 years, from 5 to 9 days per year on average, mainly on crops situated at some distance from the houses but high risk behavior was identified as the volunteers declared the use of pesticides in the backyard gardens, near their homes, where children were playing. The pesticide applicators did not have the necessary knowledge about safety and exposure. The health data must be correlated with exposure biomarkers in attempt to identify the possible health effects of the pesticides exposure. Future plans include educational campaigns to raise the awareness of the population on the danger of uncontrolled use of pesticides.

Keywords: Pesticides, health effects, Romania, Saliste.

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Authors: Yong-Hui Li, Jing-Wen Huang

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As the advancement of technology, online shopping channel develops rapidly in recent years. According to the report of Taiwan Network Information Center, there are almost eighty percents of internet population shopping in online channel. Synthesizing insights from the previous research, this study develops the conceptual model to integrate Theory of Perceived Risk (TPR) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to apply in online shopping. Using data collected from 637 respondents from online survey website, we use structural equation modeling to test measurement and structural models. The results suggest the need for consideration of perceived risk as an antecedent in the Technology Acceptance Model. The limitations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: perceived risk, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, behavioral intention, actual purchase behavior

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) is very important for countries with multiple disasters, such as Chile. In the world (also in Chile)different disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters) happen and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters occur at the same time. This meansthata multi-risk situation must be mastered. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs are concernedwith only a singledisaster (sometimes thecombination of earthquake and tsunami) and often with a particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better real-time response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture and well defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Disaster Management System, Multi-Risk, Multiagent System.

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Authors: Cristina G. Dascalu, Elena Mihaela Carausu, Daniela Manuc

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The medical studies often require different methods for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the database-s designing and filling with information. One common task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289 psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences). Finally, we will make some observations about the relation between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being always true.

Keywords: Databases, risk factors, binary logisticregression, hierarchy.

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Authors: Mozhgan Aliakbari, Sara Moridpour

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In recent years, much attention has been given to truck drivers’ fatigue management. Long working hours negatively influence truck drivers’ physiology, health, and safety. However, there is little empirical research in the heavy vehicle transport sector in Australia to identify the influence of working hours’ management on drivers’ fatigue and consequently, on the risk of crashes and injuries. There is no national legislation regulating the number of hours or kilometres travelled by truck drivers. Consequently, it is almost impossible to define a standard number of hours or kilometres for truck drivers in a safety management system. This paper reviews the existing studies concerning safe system interventions such as tachographs in relation to fatigue caused by long working hours. This paper also reviews the literature to identify the influence of frequency of rest breaks on the reduction of work-related road transport accidents involving trucks. A framework is presented to manage truck drivers’ fatigue, which may result in the reduction of injuries and fatalities involving heavy vehicles.

Keywords: Fatigue, time management, trucks, traffic safety.

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Authors: Mafarja Majdi, Salwani Abdullah, Najmeh S. Jaddi

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One of the global combinatorial optimization problems in machine learning is feature selection. It concerned with removing the irrelevant, noisy, and redundant data, along with keeping the original meaning of the original data. Attribute reduction in rough set theory is an important feature selection method. Since attribute reduction is an NP-hard problem, it is necessary to investigate fast and effective approximate algorithms. In this paper, we proposed two feature selection mechanisms based on memetic algorithms (MAs) which combine the genetic algorithm with a fuzzy record to record travel algorithm and a fuzzy controlled great deluge algorithm, to identify a good balance between local search and genetic search. In order to verify the proposed approaches, numerical experiments are carried out on thirteen datasets. The results show that the MAs approaches are efficient in solving attribute reduction problems when compared with other meta-heuristic approaches.

Keywords: Rough Set Theory, Attribute Reduction, Fuzzy Logic, Memetic Algorithms, Record to Record Algorithm, Great Deluge Algorithm.

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

Abstract:

Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: Line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity.

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Authors: Mohammed Benbrahim, Khalid Benjelloun, Aomar Ibenbrahim, Adil Daoudi

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The automatic classification of non stationary signals is an important practical goal in several domains. An essential classification task is to allocate the incoming signal to a group associated with the kind of physical phenomena producing it. In this paper, we present a modular system composed by three blocs: 1) Representation, 2) Dimensionality reduction and 3) Classification. The originality of our work consists in the use of a new wavelet called "Ben wavelet" in the representation stage. For the dimensionality reduction, we propose a new algorithm based on the random projection and the principal component analysis.

Keywords: Seismic signals, Ben Wavelet, Dimensionality reduction, Artificial neural networks, Classification.

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Authors: M. Kargar, R. Mirmiran, F. Fartash, T. Saderi

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In this paper a new method is suggested for risk management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best planning for special objectives be done.

Keywords: Analysis, Data-mining, Pattern, Risk Management.

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Authors: Manoj Sarda, Abhishek Agarwal, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

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Railways in India remain primary mode of transport having one of the largest networks in the world and catering to billions of transits yearly. Catastrophic economic damage and loss to life is encountered over the past few decades due to fire to locomotives. Study of fire dynamics and fire propagation plays an important role in evacuation planning and reducing losses. Simulation based study of propagation of fire and soot inside an air conditioned coach of Indian locomotive is done in this paper. Finite difference based solver, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) version 6 has been used for analysis. A single air conditioned 3 tier coupe closed to ambient surroundings by glass windows having occupancy for 8 people is the basic unit of the domain. A system of three such coupes combined is taken to be fundamental unit for the entire study to resemble effect to an entire coach. Analysis of flame and soot contours and concentrations is done corresponding to variations in heat release rate per unit volume (HRRPUA) of fire source, variations in conditioned air velocity being circulated inside coupes by vents and an alternate fire initiation and propagation mechanism via ducts. Quantitative results of fractional area in top and front view of the three coupes under fire and smoke are obtained using MATLAB (IMT). Present simulations and its findings will be useful for organizations like Commission of Railway Safety and others in designing and implementing safety and evacuation measures.

Keywords: Air-conditioned coaches, fire propagation, flame contour, soot flow, train fire.

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Authors: Gomaa N. Abdel-Rahman, Nadia R. A. Nassar, Yehia A. Heikal, Mahmoud A. M. Abou-Donia, Mohamed B. M. Ahmed, Mohamed Fadel

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Storage stability is the important factor of baker's yeast quality. Effect of the storage period (fifteen days) on storage sugars and cell viability of baker's yeast, produced from three S. cerevisiae strains (FC-620, FH-620, and FAT-12) as comparison with baker's yeast produced by S. cerevisae F-707 (original strain of baker's yeast factory) were investigated. Studied trehalose and glycogen content ranged from 10.19 to 14.79 % and from 10.05 to 10.69 % (d.w.), respectively before storage. The trehalose and glycogen content of all strains was decreased by increasing the storage period with no significant differences between the reduction rates of trehalose. Meanwhile, reduction rates of glycogen had significant differences between different strains, where the FH-620 and FC-620 strains had lowest rates as 18.12 and 20.70 %, respectively. Also, total viable cells and gassing power of all strains were decreased by increasing the storage period. FH-620 and FC-620 strains had the lowest values of reduction rates as an indicator of storage resistant. Where the reduction rates in total viable cells of FH-620 and FC-620 strains were 22.05 and 24.70%, respectively, while the reduction rates of gassing power were 20.90 and 24.30%, in the same order. On other hand, FAT-12 strain was more sensitive to storage as compared to original strain, where the reduction rates were 35.60 and 35.75%, respectively for total viable cells and gassing power.

Keywords: Baker’s yeast, trehalose, glycogen, gassing power.

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Authors: S. A. Nta

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The study assessed the levels of some heavy metals in the contaminated soil from a point source using pollution indices to measure the extent of pollution. The soil used was sandy-loam in texture. The contaminant used was landfill leachate, introduced as a point source through an entry point positioned at the center of top layer of the soil tank. Samples were collected after 50 days and analyzed for heavy metal (Zn, Ni, Cu and Cd) using standard methods. The mean concentration of Ni ranged from 5.55-2.65 mg/kg, Zn 3.67-0.85 mg/kg, Cu 1.60-0.93 mg/kg and Cd 1.60-0.15 mg/kg. The richness of metals was in decreasing order: Ni > Zn > Cu > Cd. The metals concentration was found to be maximum at 0.25 m radial distance from the point of leachate application. The geo-accumulation index (Igeo) studied revealed that all the metals recovered at 0.25 and 0.50 m radial distance and at 0.15, 0.30, 0.45 and 0.60 m depth from the point of application of leachate fall under unpolluted to moderately polluted range. Ecological risk assessment showed high ecological risk index with values higher than RI > 300. The RI shows that the ecological risk in this study was mostly contributed by Cd ranging from 9-96.

Keywords: Ecological risk, assessment, heavy metals, test soils, landfill leachate.

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Toru Takahashi

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In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.

Keywords: Lao flood, Mekong river, rainfall, risk management.

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Authors: B. Bina, M.H. Mehdinejad, Gunnel Dalhammer, Guna RajaraoM. Nikaeen, H. Movahedian Attar

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Coagulation of water involves the use of coagulating agents to bring the suspended matter in the raw water together for settling and the filtration stage. Present study is aimed to examine the effects of aluminum sulfate as coagulant in conjunction with Moringa Oleifera Coagulant Protein as coagulant aid on turbidity, hardness, and bacteria in turbid water. A conventional jar test apparatus was employed for the tests. The best removal was observed at a pH of 7 to 7.5 for all turbidities. Turbidity removal efficiency was resulted between % 80 to % 99 by Moringa Oleifera Coagulant Protein as coagulant aid. Dosage of coagulant and coagulant aid decreased with increasing turbidity. In addition, Moringa Oleifera Coagulant Protein significantly has reduced the required dosage of primary coagulant. Residual Al+3 in treated water were less than 0.2 mg/l and meets the environmental protection agency guidelines. The results showed that turbidity reduction of % 85.9- % 98 paralleled by a primary Escherichia coli reduction of 1-3 log units (99.2 – 99.97%) was obtained within the first 1 to 2 h of treatment. In conclusions, Moringa Oleifera Coagulant Protein as coagulant aid can be used for drinking water treatment without the risk of organic or nutrient release. We demonstrated that optimal design method is an efficient approach for optimization of coagulation-flocculation process and appropriate for raw water treatment.

Keywords: MOCP, Coagulant aid, turbidity removal, E.coliremoval, water, treatment

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

Abstract:

The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: Credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment.

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