Search results for: probability density function.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3473

Search results for: probability density function.

143 Quality Classification and Monitoring Using Adaptive Metric Distance and Neural Networks: Application in Pickling Process

Authors: S. Bouhouche, M. Lahreche, S. Ziani, J. Bast

Abstract:

Modern manufacturing facilities are large scale, highly complex, and operate with large number of variables under closed loop control. Early and accurate fault detection and diagnosis for these plants can minimise down time, increase the safety of plant operations, and reduce manufacturing costs. Fault detection and isolation is more complex particularly in the case of the faulty analog control systems. Analog control systems are not equipped with monitoring function where the process parameters are continually visualised. In this situation, It is very difficult to find the relationship between the fault importance and its consequences on the product failure. We consider in this paper an approach to fault detection and analysis of its effect on the production quality using an adaptive centring and scaling in the pickling process in cold rolling. The fault appeared on one of the power unit driving a rotary machine, this machine can not track a reference speed given by another machine. The length of metal loop is then in continuous oscillation, this affects the product quality. Using a computerised data acquisition system, the main machine parameters have been monitored. The fault has been detected and isolated on basis of analysis of monitored data. Normal and faulty situation have been obtained by an artificial neural network (ANN) model which is implemented to simulate the normal and faulty status of rotary machine. Correlation between the product quality defined by an index and the residual is used to quality classification.

Keywords: Modeling, fault detection and diagnosis, parameters estimation, neural networks, Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD), pickling process.

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142 A Set Theory Based Factoring Technique and Its Use for Low Power Logic Design

Authors: Padmanabhan Balasubramanian, Ryuta Arisaka

Abstract:

Factoring Boolean functions is one of the basic operations in algorithmic logic synthesis. A novel algebraic factorization heuristic for single-output combinatorial logic functions is presented in this paper and is developed based on the set theory paradigm. The impact of factoring is analyzed mainly from a low power design perspective for standard cell based digital designs in this paper. The physical implementation of a number of MCNC/IWLS combinational benchmark functions and sub-functions are compared before and after factoring, based on a simple technology mapping procedure utilizing only standard gate primitives (readily available as standard cells in a technology library) and not cells corresponding to optimized complex logic. The power results were obtained at the gate-level by means of an industry-standard power analysis tool from Synopsys, targeting a 130nm (0.13μm) UMC CMOS library, for the typical case. The wire-loads were inserted automatically and the simulations were performed with maximum input activity. The gate-level simulations demonstrate the advantage of the proposed factoring technique in comparison with other existing methods from a low power perspective, for arbitrary examples. Though the benchmarks experimentation reports mixed results, the mean savings in total power and dynamic power for the factored solution over a non-factored solution were 6.11% and 5.85% respectively. In terms of leakage power, the average savings for the factored forms was significant to the tune of 23.48%. The factored solution is expected to better its non-factored counterpart in terms of the power-delay product as it is well-known that factoring, in general, yields a delay-efficient multi-level solution.

Keywords: Factorization, Set theory, Logic function, Standardcell based design, Low power.

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141 Theoretical and Analytical Approaches for Investigating the Relations between Sediment Transport and Channel Shape

Authors: Nidal Hadadin

Abstract:

This study investigated the effect of cross sectional geometry on sediment transport rate. The processes of sediment transport are generally associated to environmental management, such as pollution caused by the forming of suspended sediment in the channel network of a watershed and preserving physical habitats and native vegetations, and engineering applications, such as the influence of sediment transport on hydraulic structures and flood control design. Many equations have been proposed for computing the sediment transport, the influence of many variables on sediment transport has been understood; however, the effect of other variables still requires further research. For open channel flow, sediment transport capacity is recognized to be a function of friction slope, flow velocity, grain size, grain roughness and form roughness, the hydraulic radius of the bed section and the type and quantity of vegetation cover. The effect of cross sectional geometry of the channel on sediment transport is one of the variables that need additional investigation. The width-depth ratio (W/d) is a comparative indicator of the channel shape. The width is the total distance across the channel and the depth is the mean depth of the channel. The mean depth is best calculated as total cross-sectional area divided by the top width. Channels with high W/d ratios tend to be shallow and wide, while channels with low (W/d) ratios tend to be narrow and deep. In this study, the effects of the width-depth ratio on sediment transport was demonstrated theoretically by inserting the shape factor in sediment continuity equation and analytically by utilizing the field data sets for Yalobusha River. It was found by utilizing the two approaches as a width-depth ratio increases the sediment transport decreases.

Keywords: Sediment transport, shape factor, hydraulicgeometry, flow discharge, width depth ratio.

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140 The Impact of Financial System on Mixed Use Development – Unrest in UK and Sense of Safety in Mixed Use Development

Authors: Tamara Kelly

Abstract:

The past decade has witnessed a good opportunities for city development schemes in UK. The government encouraged restoration of city centers to comprise mixed use developments with high density residential apartments. Investments in regeneration areas were doing well according to the analyses of Property Databank (IPD). However, more recent analysis by IPD has shown that since 2007, property in regeneration areas has been more vulnerable to the market downturn than other types of investment property. The early stages of a property market downturn may be felt most in regeneration where funding, investor confidence and occupier demand would dissipate because the sector was considered more marginal or risky when development costs rise. Moreover, the Bank of England survey shows that lenders have sequentially tightened the availability of credit for commercial real estate since mid-2007. A sharp reduction in the willingness of banks to lend on commercial property was recorded. The credit crunch has already affected commercial property but its impact has been particularly severe in certain kinds of properties where residential developments are extremely difficult, in particular city centre apartments and buy-to-let markets. Commercial property – retail, industrial leisure and mixed use were also pressed, in Birmingham; tens of mixed use plots were built to replace old factories in the heart of the city. The purpose of these developments was to enable young professionals to work and live in same place. Thousands of people lost their jobs during the recession, moreover lending was more difficult and the future of many developments is unknown. The recession casts its shadow upon the society due to cuts in public spending by government, Inflation, rising tuition fees and high rise in unemployment generated anger and hatred was spreading among youth causing vandalism and riots in many cities. Recent riots targeted many mixed used development in the UK where banks, shops, restaurants and big stores were robbed and set into fire leaving residents with horror and shock. This paper examines the impact of the recession and riots on mixed use development in UK.

Keywords: Diversity, mixed use development, outdoor comfort, public realm, safe places, safety by design.

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139 An Overall Approach to the Communication of Organizations in Conventional and Virtual Offices

Authors: Mehmet Altınöz

Abstract:

Organizational communication is an administrative function crucial especially for executives in the implementation of organizational and administrative functions. Executives spend a significant part of their time on communicative activities. Doing his or her daily routine, arranging meeting schedules, speaking on the telephone, reading or replying to business correspondence, or fulfilling the control functions within the organization, an executive typically engages in communication processes. Efficient communication is the principal device for the adequate implementation of administrative and organizational activities. For this purpose, management needs to specify the kind of communication system to be set up and the kind of communication devices to be used. Communication is vital for any organization. In conventional offices, communication takes place within the hierarchical pyramid called the organizational structure, and is known as formal or informal communication. Formal communication is the type that works in specified structures within the organizational rules and towards the organizational goals. Informal communication, on the other hand, is the unofficial type taking place among staff as face-to-face or telephone interaction. Communication in virtual as well as conventional offices is essential for obtaining the right information in administrative activities and decision-making. Virtual communication technologies increase the efficiency of communication especially in virtual teams. Group communication is strengthened through an inter-group central channel. Further, ease of information transmission makes it possible to reach the information at the source, allowing efficient and correct decisions. Virtual offices can present as a whole the elements of information which conventional offices produce in different environments. At present, virtual work has become a reality with its pros and cons, and will probably spread very rapidly in coming years, in line with the growth in information technologies.

Keywords: Organization, conventional office, virtual office, communication, communication model, communication functions, communication methods, vertical communication, linear communication, diagonal communication

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138 Effect of Soil Tillage System upon the Soil Properties, Weed Control, Quality and Quantity Yield in Some Arable Crops

Authors: T Rusu, P I Moraru, I Bogdan, A I Pop, M L Sopterean

Abstract:

The paper presents the influence of the conventional ploughing tillage technology in comparison with the minimum tillage, upon the soil properties, weed control and yield in the case of maize (Zea mays L.), soya-bean (Glycine hispida L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in a three years crop rotation. A research has been conducted at the University of Agricultural Sciences and Veterinary Medicine Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The use of minimum soil tillage systems within a three years rotation: maize, soya-bean, wheat favorites the rise of the aggregates hydro stability with 5.6-7.5% on a 0-20 cm depth and 5-11% on 20-30 cm depth. The minimum soil tillage systems – paraplow, chisel or rotary grape – are polyvalent alternatives for basic preparation, germination bed preparation and sowing, for fields and crops with moderate loose requirements being optimized technologies for: soil natural fertility activation and rationalization, reduction of erosion, increasing the accumulation capacity for water and realization of sowing in the optimal period. The soil tillage system influences the productivity elements of cultivated species and finally the productions thus obtained. Thus, related to conventional working system, the productions registered in minimum tillage working represented 89- 97% in maize, 103-112% in soya-bean, 93-99% in winter-wheat. The results of investigations showed that the yield is a conclusion soil tillage systems influence on soil properties, plant density assurance and on weed control. Under minimum tillage systems in the case of winter weat as an option for replacing classic ploughing, the best results in terms of quality indices were obtained from version worked with paraplow, followed by rotary harrow and chisel. At variants worked with paraplow were obtained quality indices close to those of the variant worked with plow, and protein and gluten content was even higher. At Ariesan variety, highest protein content, 12.50% and gluten, 28.6% was obtained for the variant paraplow.

Keywords: Minimum tillage, soil properties, yields quality.

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137 Use of Multiple Linear Regressions to Evaluate the Influence of O3 and PM10 on Biological Pollutants

Authors: S. I. V. Sousa, F.G. Martins, M. C. Pereira, M. C. M. Alvim-Ferraz, H. Ribeiro, M. Oliveira, I. Abreu

Abstract:

Exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked to a number of health outcomes, starting from modest transient changes in the respiratory tract and impaired pulmonary function, continuing to restrict activity/reduce performance and to the increase emergency rooms visits, hospital admissions or mortality. The increase of allergenic symptoms has been associated with air contaminants such as ozone, particulate matter, fungal spores and pollen. Considering the potential relevance of crossed effects of nonbiological pollutants and airborne pollens and fungal spores on allergy worsening, the aim of this work was to evaluate the influence of non-biological pollutants (O3 and PM10) and meteorological parameters on the concentrations of pollen and fungal spores using multiple linear regressions. The data considered in this study were collected in Oporto which is the second largest Portuguese city, located in the North. Daily mean of O3, PM10, pollen and fungal spore concentrations, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind velocity, pollen and fungal spore concentrations, for 2003, 2004 and 2005 were considered. Results showed that the 90th percentile of the adjusted coefficient of determination, P90 (R2aj), of the multiple regressions varied from 0.613 to 0.916 for pollen and from 0.275 to 0.512 for fungal spores. O3 and PM10 showed to have some influence on the biological pollutants. Among the meteorological parameters analysed, temperature was the one that most influenced the pollen and fungal spores airborne concentrations. Relative humidity also showed to have some influence on the fungal spore dispersion. Nevertheless, the models for each pollen and fungal spore were different depending on the analysed period, which means that the correlations identified as statistically significant can not be, even so, consistent enough.

Keywords: Air pollutants, meteorological parameters, biologicalpollutants, multiple linear correlations.

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136 Production of Pig Iron by Smelting of Blended Pre-Reduced Titaniferous Magnetite Ore and Hematite Ore Using Lean Grade Coal

Authors: Bitan Kumar Sarkar, Akashdeep Agarwal, Rajib Dey, Gopes Chandra Das

Abstract:

The rapid depletion of high-grade iron ore (Fe2O3) has gained attention on the use of other sources of iron ore. Titaniferous magnetite ore (TMO) is a special type of magnetite ore having high titania content (23.23% TiO2 present in this case). Due to high TiO2 content and high density, TMO cannot be treated by the conventional smelting reduction. In this present work, the TMO has been collected from high-grade metamorphic terrain of the Precambrian Chotanagpur gneissic complex situated in the eastern part of India (Shaltora area, Bankura district, West Bengal) and the hematite ore has been collected from Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP), Visakhapatnam. At VSP, iron ore is received from Bailadila mines, Chattisgarh of M/s. National Mineral Development Corporation. The preliminary characterization of TMO and hematite ore (HMO) has been investigated by WDXRF, XRD and FESEM analyses. Similarly, good quality of coal (mainly coking coal) is also getting depleted fast. The basic purpose of this work is to find how lean grade coal can be utilised along with TMO for smelting to produce pig iron. Lean grade coal has been characterised by using TG/DTA, proximate and ultimate analyses. The boiler grade coal has been found to contain 28.08% of fixed carbon and 28.31% of volatile matter. TMO fines (below 75 μm) and HMO fines (below 75 μm) have been separately agglomerated with lean grade coal fines (below 75 μm) in the form of briquettes using binders like bentonite and molasses. These green briquettes are dried first in oven at 423 K for 30 min and then reduced isothermally in tube furnace over the temperature range of 1323 K, 1373 K and 1423 K for 30 min & 60 min. After reduction, the reduced briquettes are characterized by XRD and FESEM analyses. The best reduced TMO and HMO samples are taken and blended in three different weight percentage ratios of 1:4, 1:8 and 1:12 of TMO:HMO. The chemical analysis of three blended samples is carried out and degree of metallisation of iron is found to contain 89.38%, 92.12% and 93.12%, respectively. These three blended samples are briquetted using binder like bentonite and lime. Thereafter these blended briquettes are separately smelted in raising hearth furnace at 1773 K for 30 min. The pig iron formed is characterized using XRD, microscopic analysis. It can be concluded that 90% yield of pig iron can be achieved when the blend ratio of TMO:HMO is 1:4.5. This means for 90% yield, the maximum TMO that could be used in the blend is about 18%.

Keywords: Briquetting reduction, lean grade coal, smelting reduction, TMO.

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135 Experimental and Theoretical Investigation of Rough Rice Drying in Infrared-assisted Hot Air Dryer Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: D. Zare, H. Naderi, A. A. Jafari

Abstract:

Drying characteristics of rough rice (variety of lenjan) with an initial moisture content of 25% dry basis (db) was studied in a hot air dryer assisted by infrared heating. Three arrival air temperatures (30, 40 and 500C) and four infrared radiation intensities (0, 0.2 , 0.4 and 0.6 W/cm2) and three arrival air speeds (0.1, 0.15 and 0.2 m.s-1) were studied. Bending strength of brown rice kernel, percentage of cracked kernels and time of drying were measured and evaluated. The results showed that increasing the drying arrival air temperature and radiation intensity of infrared resulted decrease in drying time. High bending strength and low percentage of cracked kernel was obtained when paddy was dried by hot air assisted infrared dryer. Between this factors and their interactive effect were a significant difference (p<0.01). An intensity level of 0.2 W/cm2 was found to be optimum for radiation drying. Furthermore, in the present study, the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for predicting the moisture content during drying (output parameter for ANN modeling) was investigated. Infrared Radiation intensity, drying air temperature, arrival air speed and drying time were considered as input parameters for the model. An ANN model with two hidden layers with 8 and 14 neurons were selected for studying the influence of transfer functions and training algorithms. The results revealed that a network with the Tansig (hyperbolic tangent sigmoid) transfer function and trainlm (Levenberg-Marquardt) back propagation algorithm made the most accurate predictions for the paddy drying system. Mean square error (MSE) was calculated and found that the random errors were within and acceptable range of ±5% with coefficient of determination (R2) of 99%.

Keywords: Rough rice, Infrared-hot air, Artificial Neural Network

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134 Wind Energy Development in the African Great Lakes Region to Supplement the Hydroelectricity in the Locality: A Case Study from Tanzania

Authors: R.M. Kainkwa

Abstract:

The African Great Lakes Region refers to the zone around lakes Victoria, Tanganyika, Albert, Edward, Kivu, and Malawi. The main source of electricity in this region is hydropower whose systems are generally characterized by relatively weak, isolated power schemes, poor maintenance and technical deficiencies with limited electricity infrastructures. Most of the hydro sources are rain fed, and as such there is normally a deficiency of water during the dry seasons and extended droughts. In such calamities fossil fuels sources, in particular petroleum products and natural gas, are normally used to rescue the situation but apart from them being nonrenewable, they also release huge amount of green house gases to our environment which in turn accelerates the global warming that has at present reached an amazing stage. Wind power is ample, renewable, widely distributed, clean, and free energy source that does not consume or pollute water. Wind generated electricity is one of the most practical and commercially viable option for grid quality and utility scale electricity production. However, the main shortcoming associated with electric wind power generation is fluctuation in its output both in space and time. Before making a decision to establish a wind park at a site, the wind speed features there should therefore be known thoroughly as well as local demand or transmission capacity. The main objective of this paper is to utilise monthly average wind speed data collected from one prospective site within the African Great Lakes Region to demonstrate that the available wind power there is high enough to generate electricity. The mean monthly values were calculated from records gathered on hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2001 to 2005) from a site in Tanzania. The documentations that were collected at a height of 2 m were projected to a height of 50 m which is the standard hub height of wind turbines. The overall monthly average wind speed was found to be 12.11 m/s whereas June to November was established to be the windy season as the wind speed during the session is above the overall monthly wind speed. The available wind power density corresponding to the overall mean monthly wind speed was evaluated to be 1072 W/m2, a potential that is worthwhile harvesting for the purpose of electric generation.

Keywords: Hydro power, windy season, available wind powerdensity.

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133 Evaluation of Model-Based Code Generation for Embedded Systems–Mature Approach for Development in Evolution

Authors: Nikolay P. Brayanov, Anna V. Stoynova

Abstract:

Model-based development approach is gaining more support and acceptance. Its higher abstraction level brings simplification of systems’ description that allows domain experts to do their best without particular knowledge in programming. The different levels of simulation support the rapid prototyping, verifying and validating the product even before it exists physically. Nowadays model-based approach is beneficial for modelling of complex embedded systems as well as a generation of code for many different hardware platforms. Moreover, it is possible to be applied in safety-relevant industries like automotive, which brings extra automation of the expensive device certification process and especially in the software qualification. Using it, some companies report about cost savings and quality improvements, but there are others claiming no major changes or even about cost increases. This publication demonstrates the level of maturity and autonomy of model-based approach for code generation. It is based on a real live automotive seat heater (ASH) module, developed using The Mathworks, Inc. tools. The model, created with Simulink, Stateflow and Matlab is used for automatic generation of C code with Embedded Coder. To prove the maturity of the process, Code generation advisor is used for automatic configuration. All additional configuration parameters are set to auto, when applicable, leaving the generation process to function autonomously. As a result of the investigation, the publication compares the quality of generated embedded code and a manually developed one. The measurements show that generally, the code generated by automatic approach is not worse than the manual one. A deeper analysis of the technical parameters enumerates the disadvantages, part of them identified as topics for our future work.

Keywords: Embedded code generation, embedded C code quality, embedded systems, model-based development.

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132 Computational Method for Annotation of Protein Sequence According to Gene Ontology Terms

Authors: Razib M. Othman, Safaai Deris, Rosli M. Illias

Abstract:

Annotation of a protein sequence is pivotal for the understanding of its function. Accuracy of manual annotation provided by curators is still questionable by having lesser evidence strength and yet a hard task and time consuming. A number of computational methods including tools have been developed to tackle this challenging task. However, they require high-cost hardware, are difficult to be setup by the bioscientists, or depend on time intensive and blind sequence similarity search like Basic Local Alignment Search Tool. This paper introduces a new method of assigning highly correlated Gene Ontology terms of annotated protein sequences to partially annotated or newly discovered protein sequences. This method is fully based on Gene Ontology data and annotations. Two problems had been identified to achieve this method. The first problem relates to splitting the single monolithic Gene Ontology RDF/XML file into a set of smaller files that can be easy to assess and process. Thus, these files can be enriched with protein sequences and Inferred from Electronic Annotation evidence associations. The second problem involves searching for a set of semantically similar Gene Ontology terms to a given query. The details of macro and micro problems involved and their solutions including objective of this study are described. This paper also describes the protein sequence annotation and the Gene Ontology. The methodology of this study and Gene Ontology based protein sequence annotation tool namely extended UTMGO is presented. Furthermore, its basic version which is a Gene Ontology browser that is based on semantic similarity search is also introduced.

Keywords: automatic clustering, bioinformatics tool, gene ontology, protein sequence annotation, semantic similarity search

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131 Forecast of the Small Wind Turbines Sales with Replacement Purchases and with or without Account of Price Changes

Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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130 Analyzing Environmental Emotive Triggers in Terrorist Propaganda

Authors: Travis Morris

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to measure the intersection of environmental security entities in terrorist propaganda. To the best of author’s knowledge, this is the first study of its kind to examine this intersection within terrorist propaganda. Rosoka, natural language processing software and frame analysis are used to advance our understanding of how environmental frames function as emotive triggers. Violent jihadi demagogues use frames to suggest violent and non-violent solutions to their grievances. Emotive triggers are framed in a way to leverage individual and collective attitudes in psychological warfare. A comparative research design is used because of the differences and similarities that exist between two variants of violent jihadi propaganda that target western audiences. Analysis is based on salience and network text analysis, which generates violent jihadi semantic networks. Findings indicate that environmental frames are used as emotive triggers across both data sets, but also as tactical and information data points. A significant finding is that certain core environmental emotive triggers like “water,” “soil,” and “trees” are significantly salient at the aggregate level across both data sets. All environmental entities can be classified into two categories, symbolic and literal. Importantly, this research illustrates how demagogues use environmental emotive triggers in cyber space from a subcultural perspective to mobilize target audiences to their ideology and praxis. Understanding the anatomy of propaganda construction is necessary in order to generate effective counter narratives in information operations. This research advances an additional method to inform practitioners and policy makers of how environmental security and propaganda intersect.

Keywords: Emotive triggers, environmental security, natural language processing, propaganda analysis.

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129 Optimal Design of Selective Excitation Pulses in Magnetic Resonance Imaging using Genetic Algorithms

Authors: Mohammed A. Alolfe, Abou-Bakr M. Youssef, Yasser M. Kadah

Abstract:

The proper design of RF pulses in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has a direct impact on the quality of acquired images, and is needed for many applications. Several techniques have been proposed to obtain the RF pulse envelope given the desired slice profile. Unfortunately, these techniques do not take into account the limitations of practical implementation such as limited amplitude resolution. Moreover, implementing constraints for special RF pulses on most techniques is not possible. In this work, we propose to develop an approach for designing optimal RF pulses under theoretically any constraints. The new technique will pose the RF pulse design problem as a combinatorial optimization problem and uses efficient techniques from this area such as genetic algorithms (GA) to solve this problem. In particular, an objective function will be proposed as the norm of the difference between the desired profile and the one obtained from solving the Bloch equations for the current RF pulse design values. The proposed approach will be verified using analytical solution based RF simulations and compared to previous methods such as Shinnar-Le Roux (SLR) method, and analysis, selected, and tested the options and parameters that control the Genetic Algorithm (GA) can significantly affect its performance to get the best improved results and compared to previous works in this field. The results show a significant improvement over conventional design techniques, select the best options and parameters for GA to get most improvement over the previous works, and suggest the practicality of using of the new technique for most important applications as slice selection for large flip angles, in the area of unconventional spatial encoding, and another clinical use.

Keywords: Selective excitation, magnetic resonance imaging, combinatorial optimization, pulse design.

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128 Accurate And Efficient Global Approximation using Adaptive Polynomial RSM for Complex Mechanical and Vehicular Performance Models

Authors: Y. Z. Wu, Z. Dong, S. K. You

Abstract:

Global approximation using metamodel for complex mathematical function or computer model over a large variable domain is often needed in sensibility analysis, computer simulation, optimal control, and global design optimization of complex, multiphysics systems. To overcome the limitations of the existing response surface (RS), surrogate or metamodel modeling methods for complex models over large variable domain, a new adaptive and regressive RS modeling method using quadratic functions and local area model improvement schemes is introduced. The method applies an iterative and Latin hypercube sampling based RS update process, divides the entire domain of design variables into multiple cells, identifies rougher cells with large modeling error, and further divides these cells along the roughest dimension direction. A small number of additional sampling points from the original, expensive model are added over the small and isolated rough cells to improve the RS model locally until the model accuracy criteria are satisfied. The method then combines local RS cells to regenerate the global RS model with satisfactory accuracy. An effective RS cells sorting algorithm is also introduced to improve the efficiency of model evaluation. Benchmark tests are presented and use of the new metamodeling method to replace complex hybrid electrical vehicle powertrain performance model in vehicle design optimization and optimal control are discussed.

Keywords: Global approximation, polynomial response surface, domain decomposition, domain combination, multiphysics modeling, hybrid powertrain optimization

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127 An Integrated CFD and Experimental Analysis on Double-Skin Window

Authors: Sheam-Chyun Lin, Wei-Kai Chen, Hung-Cheng Yen, Yung-Jen Cheng, Yu-Cheng Chen

Abstract:

Result from the constant dwindle in natural resources, the alternative way to reduce the costs in our daily life would be urgent to be found in the near future. As the ancient technique based on the theory of solar chimney since roman times, the double-skin façade are simply composed of two large glass panels in purpose of daylighting and also natural ventilation in the daytime. Double-skin façade is generally installed on the exterior side of buildings as function as the window, so there is always a huge amount of passive solar energy the façade would receive to induce the airflow every sunny day. Therefore, this article imposes a domestic double-skin window for residential usage and attempts to improve the volume flow rate inside the cavity between the panels by the frame geometry design, the installation of outlet guide plate and the solar energy collection system. Note that the numerical analyses are applied to investigate the characteristics of flow field, and the boundary conditions in the simulation are totally based on the practical experiment of the original prototype. Then we redesign the prototype from the knowledge of the numerical results and fluid dynamic theory, and later the experiments of modified prototype will be conducted to verify the simulation results. The velocities at the inlet of each case are increase by 5%, 45% and 15% from the experimental data, and also the numerical simulation results reported 20% improvement in volume flow rate both for the frame geometry design and installation of outlet guide plate.

Keywords: Solar energy, Double-skin façades, Thermal buoyancy, Fluid machinery.

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126 Tool Wear of Metal Matrix Composite 10wt% AlN Reinforcement Using TiB2 Cutting Tool

Authors: M. S. Said, J. A. Ghani, Che Hassan C. H., N. N. Wan, M. A. Selamat, R. Othman

Abstract:

Metal matrix composites (MMCs) attract considerable attention as a result from its ability in providing a high strength, high modulus, high toughness, high impact properties, improving wear resistance and providing good corrosion resistance compared to unreinforced alloy. Aluminium Silicon (Al/Si) alloy MMC has been widely used in various industrial sectors such as in transportation, domestic equipment, aerospace, military, construction, etc. Aluminium silicon alloy is an MMC that had been reinforced with aluminium nitrate (AlN) particle and become a new generation material use in automotive and aerospace sector. The AlN is one of the advance material that have a bright prospect in future since it has features such as lightweight, high strength, high hardness and stiffness quality. However, the high degree of ceramic particle reinforcement and the irregular nature of the particles along the matrix material that contribute to its low density is the main problem which leads to difficulties in machining process. This paper examined the tool wear when milling AlSi/AlN Metal Matrix Composite using a TiB2 (Titanium diboride) coated carbide cutting tool. The volume of the AlN reinforced particle was 10% and milling process was carried out under dry cutting condition. The TiB2 coated carbide insert parameters used were at the cutting speed of (230, 300 and 370m/min, feed rate of 0.8, Depth of Cut (DoC) at 0.4m). The Sometech SV-35 video microscope system used to quantify of the tool wear. The result shown that tool life span increasing with the cutting speeds at (370m/min, feed rate of 0.8mm/tooth and DoC at 0.4mm) which constituted an optimum condition for longer tool life lasted until 123.2 mins. Meanwhile, at medium cutting speed which at 300m/m, feed rate of 0.8mm/tooth and depth of cut at 0.4mm we found that tool life span lasted until 119.86 mins while at low cutting speed it lasted in 119.66 mins. High cutting speed will give the best parameter in cutting AlSi/AlN MMCs material. The result will help manufacturers in machining process of AlSi/AlN MMCs materials.

Keywords: AlSi/AlN Metal Matrix Composite milling process, tool wear, TiB2 coated cemented carbide tool.

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125 Optimization of Solar Rankine Cycle by Exergy Analysis and Genetic Algorithm

Authors: R. Akbari, M. A. Ehyaei, R. Shahi Shavvon

Abstract:

Nowadays, solar energy is used for energy purposes such as the use of thermal energy for domestic, industrial and power applications, as well as the conversion of the sunlight into electricity by photovoltaic cells. In this study, the thermodynamic simulation of the solar Rankin cycle with phase change material (paraffin) was first studied. Then energy and exergy analyses were performed. For optimization, a single and multi-objective genetic optimization algorithm to maximize thermal and exergy efficiency was used. The parameters discussed in this paper included the effects of input pressure on turbines, input mass flow to turbines, the surface of converters and collector angles on thermal and exergy efficiency. In the organic Rankin cycle, where solar energy is used as input energy, the fluid selection is considered as a necessary factor to achieve reliable and efficient operation. Therefore, silicon oil is selected for a high-temperature cycle and water for a low-temperature cycle as an operating fluid. The results showed that increasing the mass flow to turbines 1 and 2 would increase thermal efficiency, while it reduces and increases the exergy efficiency in turbines 1 and 2, respectively. Increasing the inlet pressure to the turbine 1 decreases the thermal and exergy efficiency, and increasing the inlet pressure to the turbine 2 increases the thermal efficiency and exergy efficiency. Also, increasing the angle of the collector increased thermal efficiency and exergy. The thermal efficiency of the system was 22.3% which improves to 33.2 and 27.2% in single-objective and multi-objective optimization, respectively. Also, the exergy efficiency of the system was 1.33% which has been improved to 1.719 and 1.529% in single-objective and multi-objective optimization, respectively. These results showed that the thermal and exergy efficiency in a single-objective optimization is greater than the multi-objective optimization.

Keywords: Exergy analysis, Genetic algorithm, Rankine cycle, Single and Multi-objective function.

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124 Numerical Simulation in the Air-Curtain Installed Subway Tunnel for the Indoor Air Quality

Authors: Kyung Jin Ryu, Makhsuda Juraeva, Sang-Hyun Jeong, Dong Joo Song

Abstract:

The Platform Screen Doors improve Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) in the subway station; however, and the air quality is degraded in the subway tunnel. CO2 concentration and indoor particulate matter value are high in the tunnel. The IAQ level in subway tunnel degrades by increasing the train movements. Air-curtain installation reduces dusts, particles and moving toxic smokes and permits traffic by generating virtual wall. The ventilation systems of the subway tunnel need improvements to have better air-quality. Numerical analyses might be effective tools analyze the flowfield inside the air-curtain installed subway tunnel. The ANSYS CFX software is used for steady computations of the airflow inside the tunnel. The single-track subway tunnel has the natural shaft, the mechanical shaft, and the PSDs installed stations. The height and width of the tunnel are 6.0 m and 4.0 m respectively. The tunnel is 400 m long and the air-curtain is installed at the top of the tunnel. The thickness and the width of the air-curtain are 0.08 m and 4 m respectively. The velocity of the air-curtain changes between 20 - 30 m/s. Three cases are analyzed depending on the installing location of the air-curtain. The discharged-air through the natural shafts increases as the velocity of the air-curtain increases when the air-curtain is installed between the mechanical and the natural shafts. The pollutant-air is exhausted by the mechanical and the natural shafts and remained air is pushed toward tunnel end. The discharged-air through the natural shaft is low when the air-curtain installed before the natural shaft. The mass flow rate decreases in the tunnel after the mechanical shaft as the air-curtain velocity increases. The computational results of the air-curtain installed tunnel become basis for the optimum design study. The air-curtain installing location is chosen between the mechanical and the natural shafts. The velocity of the air-curtain is fixed as 25 m/s. The thickness and the blowing angles of the air-curtain are the design variables for the optimum design study. The object function of the design optimization is maximizing the discharged air through the natural shaft.

Keywords: air-curtain, indoor air quality, single-track subway tunnel

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123 Genetic Algorithm Application in a Dynamic PCB Assembly with Carryover Sequence- Dependent Setups

Authors: M. T. Yazdani Sabouni, Rasaratnam Logendran

Abstract:

We consider a typical problem in the assembly of printed circuit boards (PCBs) in a two-machine flow shop system to simultaneously minimize the weighted sum of weighted tardiness and weighted flow time. The investigated problem is a group scheduling problem in which PCBs are assembled in groups and the interest is to find the best sequence of groups as well as the boards within each group to minimize the objective function value. The type of setup operation between any two board groups is characterized as carryover sequence-dependent setup time, which exactly matches with the real application of this problem. As a technical constraint, all of the boards must be kitted before the assembly operation starts (kitting operation) and by kitting staff. The main idea developed in this paper is to completely eliminate the role of kitting staff by assigning the task of kitting to the machine operator during the time he is idle which is referred to as integration of internal (machine) and external (kitting) setup times. Performing the kitting operation, which is a preparation process of the next set of boards while the other boards are currently being assembled, results in the boards to continuously enter the system or have dynamic arrival times. Consequently, a dynamic PCB assembly system is introduced for the first time in the assembly of PCBs, which also has characteristics similar to that of just-in-time manufacturing. The problem investigated is computationally very complex, meaning that finding the optimal solutions especially when the problem size gets larger is impossible. Thus, a heuristic based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) is employed. An example problem on the application of the GA developed is demonstrated and also numerical results of applying the GA on solving several instances are provided.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, Dynamic PCB assembly, Carryover sequence-dependent setup times, Multi-objective.

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122 Power Factor Correction Based on High Switching Frequency Resonant Power Converter

Authors: B. Sathyanandhi, P. M. Balasubramaniam

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This paper presents Buck-Boost converter topology to maintain the input power factor by using the power factor stage control and regulation stage control. Suppose, if we are using the RL load the power factor will be reduced due to the presence of total harmonic distortion in the current wave. To improve the power factor the current waveform should follow the fundamental component of the voltage waveform. These can be achieved by using the high -frequency power converter. Based on the resonant circuit the converter is able to perform the function of Buck, Boost, and buck-boost converter. Here ,we have used Buck-Boost converter, because, the buck-boost converter has more advantages than the boost converter. Here the switching action of the power converter can  take place by using the external zero comparator PFC stage control. The power converter consisting of the resonant  circuit which is used to control the output voltage gain of the converter. The power converter is operated at a very high switching frequency in the range of 400KHz in order to overcome the switching losses of the power converter. Due to  presence of high switching frequency, the power factor will improve. Therefore, the total harmonics distortion present in the current waveform has also reduced. These results has generated in the form of simulation by using MATLAB/SIMULINK software.  Similar to the Buck and Boost converters, the operation of the Buck-Boost has best understood, in terms of the inductor's "reluctance" for allowing rapid change in current, which also reduces the Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) in the input current waveform, which can improve the input Power factor, based on the type of load used.

Keywords: Buck-boost converter, High switching frequency, Power factor correction, power factor correction stage Regulation stage, Total harmonic distortion (THD).

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121 Study of Variation of Winds Behavior on Micro Urban Environment with Use of Fuzzy Logic for Wind Power Generation: Case Study in the Cities of Arraial do Cabo and São Pedro da Aldeia, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Authors: Roberto Rosenhaim, Marcos Antonio Crus Moreira, Robson da Cunha, Gerson Gomes Cunha

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This work provides details on the wind speed behavior within cities of Arraial do Cabo and São Pedro da Aldeia located in the Lakes Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This region has one of the best potentials for wind power generation. In interurban layer, wind conditions are very complex and depend on physical geography, size and orientation of buildings and constructions around, population density, and land use. In the same context, the fundamental surface parameter that governs the production of flow turbulence in urban canyons is the surface roughness. Such factors can influence the potential for power generation from the wind within the cities. Moreover, the use of wind on a small scale is not fully utilized due to complexity of wind flow measurement inside the cities. It is difficult to accurately predict this type of resource. This study demonstrates how fuzzy logic can facilitate the assessment of the complexity of the wind potential inside the cities. It presents a decision support tool and its ability to deal with inaccurate information using linguistic variables created by the heuristic method. It relies on the already published studies about the variables that influence the wind speed in the urban environment. These variables were turned into the verbal expressions that are used in computer system, which facilitated the establishment of rules for fuzzy inference and integration with an application for smartphones used in the research. In the first part of the study, challenges of the sustainable development which are described are followed by incentive policies to the use of renewable energy in Brazil. The next chapter follows the study area characteristics and the concepts of fuzzy logic. Data were collected in field experiment by using qualitative and quantitative methods for assessment. As a result, a map of the various points is presented within the cities studied with its wind viability evaluated by a system of decision support using the method multivariate classification based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: Behavior of winds, wind power, fuzzy logic, sustainable development.

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120 Transmission Line Congestion Management Using Hybrid Fish-Bee Algorithm with Unified Power Flow Controller

Authors: P. Valsalal, S. Thangalakshmi

Abstract:

There is a widespread changeover in the electrical power industry universally from old-style monopolistic outline towards a horizontally distributed competitive structure to come across the demand of rising consumption. When the transmission lines of derestricted system are incapable to oblige the entire service needs, the lines are overloaded or congested. The governor between customer and power producer is nominated as Independent System Operator (ISO) to lessen the congestion without obstructing transmission line restrictions. Among the existing approaches for congestion management, the frequently used approaches are reorganizing the generation and load curbing. There is a boundary for reorganizing the generators, and further loads may not be supplemented with the prevailing resources unless more private power producers are added in the system by considerably raising the cost. Hence, congestion is relaxed by appropriate Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) devices which boost the existing transfer capacity of transmission lines. The FACTs device, namely, Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC) is preferred, and the correct placement of UPFC is more vital and should be positioned in the highly congested line. Hence, the weak line is identified by using power flow performance index with the new objective function with proposed hybrid Fish – Bee algorithm. Further, the location of UPFC at appropriate line reduces the branch loading and minimizes the voltage deviation. The power transfer capacity of lines is determined with and without UPFC in the identified congested line of IEEE 30 bus structure and the simulated results are compared with prevailing algorithms. It is observed that the transfer capacity of existing line is increased with the presented algorithm and thus alleviating the congestion.

Keywords: Available line transfer capability, congestion management, FACTS device, hybrid fish-bee algorithm, ISO, UPFC.

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119 A Development of Home Service Robot using Omni-Wheeled Mobility and Task-Based Manipulation

Authors: Hijun Kim, Jungkeun Sung, Seungwoo Kim

Abstract:

In this paper, a Smart Home Service Robot, McBot II, which performs mess-cleanup function etc. in house, is designed much more optimally than other service robots. It is newly developed in much more practical system than McBot I which we had developed two years ago. One characteristic attribute of mobile platforms equipped with a set of dependent wheels is their omni- directionality and the ability to realize complex translational and rotational trajectories for agile navigation in door. An accurate coordination of steering angle and spinning rate of each wheel is necessary for a consistent motion. This paper develops trajectory controller of 3-wheels omni-directional mobile robot using fuzzy azimuth estimator. A specialized anthropomorphic robot manipulator which can be attached to the housemaid robot McBot II, is developed in this paper. This built-in type manipulator consists of both arms with 3 DOF (Degree of Freedom) each and both hands with 3 DOF each. The robotic arm is optimally designed to satisfy both the minimum mechanical size and the maximum workspace. Minimum mass and length are required for the built-in cooperated-arms system. But that makes the workspace so small. This paper proposes optimal design method to overcome the problem by using neck joint to move the arms horizontally forward/backward and waist joint to move them vertically up/down. The robotic hand, which has two fingers and a thumb, is also optimally designed in task-based concept. Finally, the good performance of the developed McBot II is confirmed through live tests of the mess-cleanup task.

Keywords: Holonomic Omni-wheeled Mobile Robot, Special-purpose, Manipulation, Home Service Robot

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118 The Effect of the Side-Weir Crest Height to Scour in Clay-Sand Mixed Sediments

Authors: F. Ayça Varol Saraçoğlu, Hayrullah Ağaçcıoğlu

Abstract:

Experimental studies to investigate the depth of the scour conducted at a side-weir intersection located at the 1800 curved flume which located Hydraulic Laboratory of Yıldız Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey. Side weirs were located at the middle of the straight part of the main channel. Three different lengths (25, 40 and 50 cm) and three different weir crest height (7, 10 and 12 cm) of the side weir placed on the side weir station. There is no scour when the material is only kaolin. Therefore, the cohesive bed was prepared by properly mixing clay material (kaolin) with 31% sand in all experiments. Following 24h consolidation time, in order to observe the effect of flow intensity on the scour depth, experiments were carried out for five different upstream Froude numbers in the range of 0.33-0.81. As a result of this study the relation between scour depth and upstream flow intensity as a function of time have been established. The longitudinal velocities decreased along the side weir; towards the downstream due to overflow over the side-weirs. At the beginning, the scour depth increases rapidly with time and then asymptotically approached constant values in all experiments for all side weir dimensions as in non-cohesive sediment. Thus, the scour depth reached equilibrium conditions. Time to equilibrium depends on the approach flow intensity and the dimensions of side weirs. For different heights of the weir crest, dimensionless scour depths increased with increasing upstream Froude number. Equilibrium scour depths which formed 7 cm side-weir crest height were obtained higher than that of the 12 cm side-weir crest height. This means when side-weir crest height increased equilibrium scour depths decreased. Although the upstream side of the scour hole is almost vertical, the downstream side of the hole is inclined.

Keywords: Clay-sand mixed sediments, scour, side weir.

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117 Multi-Objective Optimal Design of a Cascade Control System for a Class of Underactuated Mechanical Systems

Authors: Yuekun Chen, Yousef Sardahi, Salam Hajjar, Christopher Greer

Abstract:

This paper presents a multi-objective optimal design of a cascade control system for an underactuated mechanical system. Cascade control structures usually include two control algorithms (inner and outer). To design such a control system properly, the following conflicting objectives should be considered at the same time: 1) the inner closed-loop control must be faster than the outer one, 2) the inner loop should fast reject any disturbance and prevent it from propagating to the outer loop, 3) the controlled system should be insensitive to measurement noise, and 4) the controlled system should be driven by optimal energy. Such a control problem can be formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem such that the optimal trade-offs among these design goals are found. To authors best knowledge, such a problem has not been studied in multi-objective settings so far. In this work, an underactuated mechanical system consisting of a rotary servo motor and a ball and beam is used for the computer simulations, the setup parameters of the inner and outer control systems are tuned by NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm), and the dominancy concept is used to find the optimal design points. The solution of this problem is not a single optimal cascade control, but rather a set of optimal cascade controllers (called Pareto set) which represent the optimal trade-offs among the selected design criteria. The function evaluation of the Pareto set is called the Pareto front. The solution set is introduced to the decision-maker who can choose any point to implement. The simulation results in terms of Pareto front and time responses to external signals show the competing nature among the design objectives. The presented study may become the basis for multi-objective optimal design of multi-loop control systems.

Keywords: Cascade control, multi-loop control systems, multi-objective optimization, optimal control.

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116 Rice cDNA Encoding PROLM is Capable of Rescuing Salt Sensitive Yeast Phenotypes G19 and Axt3K from Salt Stress

Authors: Prasad Senadheera, Younousse Saidi, Frans JM Maathuis

Abstract:

Rice seed expression (cDNA) library in the Lambda Zap 11® phage constructed from the developing grain 10-20 days after flowering was transformed into yeast for functional complementation assays in three salt sensitive yeast mutants S. cerevisiae strain CY162, G19 and Axt3K. Transformed cells of G19 and Axt3K with pYES vector with cDNA inserts showed enhance tolerance than those with empty pYes vector. Sequencing of the cDNA inserts revealed that they encode for the putative proteins with the sequence homologous to rice putative protein PROLM24 (Os06g31070), a prolamin precursor. Expression of this cDNA did not affect yeast growth in absence of salt. Axt3k and G19 strains expressing the PROLM24 were able to grow upto 400 mM and 600 mM of NaCl respectively. Similarly, Axt3k mutant with PROLM24 expression showed comparatively higher growth rate in the medium with excess LiCl (50 mM). The observation that expression of PROLM24 rescued the salt sensitive phenotypes of G19 and Axt3k indicates the existence of a regulatory system that ameliorates the effect of salt stress in the transformed yeast mutants. However, the exact function of the cDNA sequence, which shows partial sequence homology to yeast UTR1 is not clear. Although UTR1 involved in ferrous uptake and iron homeostasis in yeast cells, there is no evidence to prove its role in Na+ homeostasis in yeast cells. Absence of transmembrane regions in Os06g31070 protein indicates that salt tolerance is achieved not through the direct functional complementation of the mutant genes but through an alternative mechanism.

Keywords: Rice seed expression, salt stress, prolamin, salinitytolerance, Oryza sativa

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115 Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Basin of South India

Authors: K. Shimola, M. Krishnaveni

Abstract:

This paper examines vulnerability assessment of water resources in a semi-arid basin using the 4-step approach. The vulnerability assessment framework is developed to study the water resources vulnerability which includes the creation of GIS-based vulnerability maps. These maps represent the spatial variability of the vulnerability index. This paper introduces the 4-step approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a new set of indicators. The approach is demonstrated using a framework composed of a precipitation data for (1975–2010) period, temperature data for (1965–2010) period, hydrological model outputs and the water resources GIS data base. The vulnerability assessment is a function of three components such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The current water resources vulnerability is assessed using GIS based spatio-temporal information. Rainfall Coefficient of Variation, monsoon onset and end date, rainy days, seasonality indices, temperature are selected for the criterion ‘exposure’. Water yield, ground water recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) are selected for the criterion ‘sensitivity’. Type of irrigation and storage structures are selected for the criterion ‘Adaptive capacity’. These indicators were mapped and integrated in GIS environment using overlay analysis. The five sub-basins, namely Arjunanadhi, Kousiganadhi, Sindapalli-Uppodai and Vallampatti Odai, fall under medium vulnerability profile, which indicates that the basin is under moderate stress of water resources. The paper also explores prioritization of sub-basinwise adaptation strategies to climate change based on the vulnerability indices.

Keywords: Adaptive capacity, exposure, overlay analysis, sensitivity, vulnerability.

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114 A Real-Time Bayesian Decision-Support System for Predicting Suspect Vehicle’s Intended Target Using a Sparse Camera Network

Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

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We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: Autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision-support, interventions, patterns-of-life, predictive analytics, predictive insights.

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