Search results for: isotherms and kinetics models

Authors: Albana Hasimi, Edlira Tako, Partizan Malkaj, Elvin Çomo, Blerina Papajani, Mirela Ndrita, Ledjan Malaj

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Many endeavors have been exerted during the last years for developing new artificial polymeric membranes, which fulfill the demanded conditions for biomedical uses. One of the most tested polymers is Poly(vinyl alcohol) [PVA]. Our teams are based on the possibility of using PVA for personal protective equipment against COVID-19. In personal protective equipment, we explore the possibility of modifying the properties of the polymer by adding Montmorillonite [MMT]. Heat-treatment above the glass transition temperature is used to improve mechanical properties mainly by increasing the crystallinity of the polymer, which acts as a physical network. Temperature-Modulated Differential Scanning Calorimetry (TMDSC) measurements indicated that the presence of 0.5% MMT in PVA causes a higher Tg value and shaped peak of crystallinity. Decomposition is observed at two of the melting points of the crystals during heating 25-240 oC and overlap of the recrystallization ridges during cooling 240-25 oC. This is indicative of the presence of two types (quality or structure) of polymer crystals. On the other hand, some indication of improvement of the quality of the crystals by heat-treatment is given by the distinct non-reversing contribution to melting. Data on sorption and transport of water in PVA films: PVA pure and PVA/MMT matrix, modified by thermal treatment are presented. The membranes become more rigid as a result of the heat treatment and because of this the water uptake is significantly lower in membranes. That is indicated by analysis of the resulting water uptake kinetics. The presence of 0.5% w/w of MMT has no significant impact on the properties of PVA membranes. Water uptake kinetics deviate from Fick’s law due to slow relaxation of glassy polymer matrix for all types of membranes.

Keywords: Crystallinity, montmorillonite, nanocomposite, poly(vinyl alcohol).

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Authors: L. Temdrara, A. Khelifi, A. Addoun

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Activated carbons were produced from olive stones by a chemical process. The activated carbon (AC) were modified by nitric acid and used as adsorbents for the removal of methylene blue dye from aqueous solution. The activated carbons were characterized by nitrogen adsorption and enthalpy of immersion. Batch adsorption experiments were carried out to study the effect of initial different concentrations solution on dye adsorption properties. Isotherms were fitted to Langmuir model, and corresponding parameters were determined. The results showed that the increase of ration of ZnCl₂ leads to increase in apparent surface areas and produces activated carbons with pore structure more developed. However, the maximum MB uptakes for all carbons were determined and correlated with activated carbons characteristics. 

Keywords: Adsorption, activated carbon, chemical activation, enthalpy of immersion.

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Authors: Arash Karimipour, M. Afrand, M. M. Bazofti

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The periodic mixed convection of a water-copper nanofluid inside a rectangular cavity with aspect ratio of 3 is investigated numerically. The temperature of the bottom wall of the cavity is assumed greater than the temperature of the top lid which oscillates horizontally with the velocity defined as u = u0 sin (ω t). The effects of Richardson number, Ri, and volume fraction of nanoparticles on the flow and thermal behavior of the nanofluid are investigated. Velocity and temperature profiles, streamlines and isotherms are presented. It is observed that when Ri < 1, heat transfer rate is much greater than when Ri > 1. The higher value of Ri corresponds to a lower value of the amplitude of the oscillation of Num in the steady periodic state. Moreover, increasing the volume fraction of the nanoparticles increases the heat transfer rate.

Keywords: Nanofluid, Top lid oscillation, Mixed convection, Volume fraction

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: Exchange rate, quantile regression, combining forecasts.

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Authors: Abdunaser Abduelmula, Maria Luisa M. Bastos, José A. Gonçalves

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Modelling of the earth's surface and evaluation of urban environment, with 3D models, is an important research topic. New stereo capabilities of high resolution optical satellites images, such as the tri-stereo mode of Pleiades, combined with new image matching algorithms, are now available and can be applied in urban area analysis. In addition, photogrammetry software packages gained new, more efficient matching algorithms, such as SGM, as well as improved filters to deal with shadow areas, can achieve more dense and more precise results. This paper describes a comparison between 3D data extracted from tri-stereo and dual stereo satellite images, combined with pixel based matching and Wallis filter. The aim was to improve the accuracy of 3D models especially in urban areas, in order to assess if satellite images are appropriate for a rapid evaluation of urban environments. The results showed that 3D models achieved by Pleiades tri-stereo outperformed, both in terms of accuracy and detail, the result obtained from a Geo-eye pair. The assessment was made with reference digital surface models derived from high resolution aerial photography. This could mean that tri-stereo images can be successfully used for the proposed urban change analyses.

Keywords: 3D Models, Environment, Matching, Pleiades.

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Authors: Makram Ben Jeddou

Abstract:

ABC classification is widely used by managers for inventory control. The classical ABC classification is based on Pareto principle and according to the criterion of the annual use value only. Single criterion classification is often insufficient for a closely inventory control. Multi-criteria inventory classification models have been proposed by researchers in order to consider other important criteria. From these models, we will consider a specific model in order to make a sensitive analysis on the composite score calculated for each item. In fact, this score, based on a normalized average between a good and a bad optimized index, can affect the ABC-item classification. We will focus on items differently assigned to classes and then propose a classification compromise.

Keywords: ABC classification, Multi criteria inventory classification models, ZF-model.

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Authors: Zhengyi Kong, Seung-Eock Kim

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Single angle connections, which are bolted to the beam web and the column flange, are studied to investigate their moment-rotation behavior. Elastic–perfectly plastic material behavior is assumed. ABAQUS software is used to analyze the nonlinear behavior of a single angle connection. The identical geometric and material conditions with Lipson’s test are used for verifying finite element models. Since Kishi and Chen’s Power model and Lee and Moon’s Log model are accurate only for a limited range of mechanism, simpler and more accurate hyperbolic function models are proposed.

Keywords: Single-web angle connections, finite element method, moment and rotation, hyperbolic function models.

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Authors: Z. Pavlík, J. Fořt, J. Žumár, M. Pavlíková, R. Černý

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The cup method is applied for the measurement of water vapor transport properties of porous materials worldwide. However, in practical applications the experimental results are often used without taking into account some secondary effects which can play an important role under specific conditions. In this paper, the effect of temperature on water vapor transport properties of cellular concrete is studied, together with the influence of sample thickness. At first, the bulk density, matrix density, total open porosity and sorption and desorption isotherms are measured for material characterization purposes. Then, the steady state cup method is used for determination of water vapor transport properties, whereas the measurements are performed at several temperatures and for three different sample thicknesses.

Keywords: Water vapor transport, cellular concrete, cup method, temperature, sample thickness.

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Authors: Adilson Elias Xavier, Otto Corrêa Rotunno Filho, Paulo Canedo de Magalhães

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This paper addresses the issue of automatic parameter estimation in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) models. Due to threshold structures commonly occurring in CRR models, the associated mathematical optimization problems have the significant characteristic of being strongly non-differentiable. In order to face this enormous task, the resolution method proposed adopts a smoothing strategy using a special C∞ differentiable class function. The final estimation solution is obtained by solving a sequence of differentiable subproblems which gradually approach the original conceptual problem. The use of this technique, called Hyperbolic Smoothing Method (HSM), makes possible the application of the most powerful minimization algorithms, and also allows for the main difficulties presented by the original CRR problem to be overcome. A set of computational experiments is presented for the purpose of illustrating both the reliability and the efficiency of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Rainfall-runoff models, optimization procedure, automatic parameter calibration, hyperbolic smoothing method.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Elias K. Maragos, Petros E. Maravelakis

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In Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis (DDEA), which is a subfield of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the productivity of Decision Making Units (DMUs) is considered in relation to time. In this case, as it is accepted by the most of the researchers, there are outputs, which are produced by a DMU to be used as inputs in a future time. Those outputs are known as intermediates. The common models, in DDEA, do not take into account the shape of the distribution of those inputs, outputs or intermediates data, assuming that the distribution of the virtual value of them does not deviate from linearity. This weakness causes the limitation of the accuracy of the analytical power of the traditional DDEA models. In this paper, the authors, using the concept of piecewise linear inputs and outputs, propose an extended DDEA model. The proposed model increases the flexibility of the traditional DDEA models and improves the measurement of the dynamic performance of DMUs.

Keywords: Data envelopment analysis, Dynamic DEA, Piecewise linear inputs, Piecewise linear outputs.

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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Authors: Cândida M. Pereira, Amílcar L. Ramalho, Jorge A. Ambrósio

Abstract:

In the numerical solution of the forward dynamics of a multibody system, the positions and velocities of the bodies in the system are obtained first. With the information of the system state variables at each time step, the internal and external forces acting on the system are obtained by appropriate contact force models if the continuous contact method is used instead of a discrete contact method. The local deformation of the bodies in contact, represented by penetration, is used to compute the contact force. The ability and suitability with current cylindrical contact force models to describe the contact between bodies with cylindrical geometries with particular focus on internal contacting geometries involving low clearances and high loads simultaneously is discussed in this paper. A comparative assessment of the performance of each model under analysis for different contact conditions, in particular for very different penetration and clearance values, is presented. It is demonstrated that some models represent a rough approximation to describe the conformal contact between cylindrical geometries because contact forces are underestimated.

Keywords: Clearance joints, Contact mechanics, Contact dynamics, Internal cylindrical contact, Multibody dynamics.

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Authors: Abd Elrahman Elgamala, N. Darwish, I. Bondouk, Sh. Hamada

Abstract:

Available experimental angular distributions for ⁶Li elastically scattered from ¹⁶O nucleus in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV are investigated and reanalyzed using optical model of the conventional phenomenological potential and also using double folding optical model of different interaction models: DDM3Y1, CDM3Y1, CDM3Y2, and CDM3Y3. All the involved models of interaction are of M3Y Paris except DDM3Y1 which is of M3Y Reid and the main difference between them lies in the different values for the parameters of the incorporated density distribution function F(ρ). We have extracted the renormalization factor N_R for ⁶Li+¹⁶O nuclear system in the energy range 13.0–50.0 MeV using the aforementioned interaction models.

Keywords: Elastic scattering, optical model, folding potential, density distribution.

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Authors: A. G. Matveev

Abstract:

The copyrights system is a combination of different elements. The number, content and the correlation of these elements are different for different legal orders. The models of copyrights systems display this system in terms of the interaction of economic and author's moral rights. Monistic and dualistic models are the most popular ones. The article deals with different points of view on the monism and dualism in copyright system. A specific model of the copyright in Switzerland in the XXth century is analyzed. The evolution of a French dualistic model of copyright is shown. The author believes that one should talk not about one, but rather about a number of dualism forms of copyright system.

Keywords: Copyright, exclusive copyright, economic rights, author's moral rights, rights of personality, monistic model, dualistic model.

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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Authors: S. M. Gupta, Vanita Aggarwal, Som Nath Sachdeva

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The work reported through this paper is an experimental work conducted on High Performance Concrete (HPC) with super plasticizer with the aim to develop some models suitable for prediction of compressive strength of HPC mixes. In this study, the effect of varying proportions of fly ash (0% to 50% @ 10% increment) on compressive strength of high performance concrete has been evaluated. The mix designs studied were M30, M40 and M50 to compare the effect of fly ash addition on the properties of these concrete mixes. In all eighteen concrete mixes that have been designed, three were conventional concretes for three grades under discussion and fifteen were HPC with fly ash with varying percentages of fly ash. The concrete mix designing has been done in accordance with Indian standard recommended guidelines. All the concrete mixes have been studied in terms of compressive strength at 7 days, 28 days, 90 days, and 365 days. All the materials used have been kept same throughout the study to get a perfect comparison of values of results. The models for compressive strength prediction have been developed using Linear Regression method (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Leave-One-Out Validation (LOOV) methods.

Keywords: ANN, concrete mixes, compressive strength, fly ash, high performance concrete, linear regression, strength prediction models.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: Deep learning, long-short-term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting.

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Authors: Herlandson C. Moura, Jorge H. Bidinotto, Eduardo M. Belo

Abstract:

The present work proposes the development of an adaptive control system which enables the suppression of Pilot Induced Oscillations (PIO) in Digital Fly-By-Wire (DFBW) aircrafts. The proposed system consists of a Modified Model Reference Adaptive Control (M-MRAC) integrated with the Gain Scheduling technique. The PIO oscillations are detected using a Real Time Oscillation Verifier (ROVER) algorithm, which then enables the system to switch between two reference models; one in PIO condition, with low proneness to the phenomenon and another one in normal condition, with high (or medium) proneness. The reference models are defined in a closed loop condition using the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) control methodology for Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems. The implemented algorithms are simulated in software implementations with state space models and commercial flight simulators as the controlled elements and with pilot dynamics models. A sequence of pitch angles is considered as the reference signal, named as Synthetic Task (Syntask), which must be tracked by the pilot models. The initial outcomes show that the proposed system can detect and suppress (or mitigate) the PIO oscillations in real time before it reaches high amplitudes.

Keywords: Adaptive control, digital fly-by-wire, oscillations suppression, PIO.

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Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman

Abstract:

In electrical discharge machining (EDM), a complete and clear theory has not yet been established. The developed theory (physical models) yields results far from reality due to the complexity of the physics. It is difficult to select proper parameter settings in order to achieve better EDM performance. However, modelling can solve this critical problem concerning the parameter settings. Therefore, the purpose of the present work is to develop mathematical model to predict performance characteristics of EDM on Ti-5Al-2.5Sn titanium alloy. Response surface method (RSM) and artificial neural network (ANN) are employed to develop the mathematical models. The developed models are verified through analysis of variance (ANOVA). The ANN models are trained, tested, and validated utilizing a set of data. It is found that the developed ANN and mathematical model can predict performance of EDM effectively. Thus, the model has found a precise tool that turns EDM process cost-effective and more efficient.

Keywords: Analysis of variance, artificial neural network, material removal rate, modelling, response surface method, surface finish.

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Authors: Do-Jin Jang, Sung-Ah Kim

Abstract:

In designing a kinetic façade, it is hard for the designer to make digital models due to its complex geometry with motion. This paper aims to present a methodology of converting a point cloud of a physical model into a single digital model with a certain topology and motion. The method uses a Microsoft Kinect sensor, and color markers were defined and applied to three paper folding-inspired designs. Although the resulted digital model cannot represent the whole folding range of the physical model, the method supports the designer to conduct a performance-oriented design process with the rough physical model in the reduced folding range.

Keywords: Design media, kinetic façades, tangible user interface, 3D scanning.

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Authors: Jessica Lòpez Espejel, Mahaman Sanoussi Yahaya Alassan, Walid Dahhane, El Hassane Ettifouri

Abstract:

Pretrained transformer-based models have shown high performance in natural language generation task. However, a new wave of interest has surged: automatic programming language generation. This task consists of translating natural language instructions to a programming code. Despite the fact that well-known pretrained models on language generation have achieved good performance in learning programming languages, effort is still needed in automatic code generation. In this paper, we introduce JaCoText, a model based on Transformers neural network. It aims to generate java source code from natural language text. JaCoText leverages advantages of both natural language and code generation models. More specifically, we study some findings from the state of the art and use them to (1) initialize our model from powerful pretrained models, (2) explore additional pretraining on our java dataset, (3) carry out experiments combining the unimodal and bimodal data in the training, and (4) scale the input and output length during the fine-tuning of the model. Conducted experiments on CONCODE dataset show that JaCoText achieves new state-of-the-art results.

Keywords: Java code generation, Natural Language Processing, Sequence-to-sequence Models, Transformers Neural Networks.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

Abstract:

A dynamic software risk assessment model is presented. Analogies between dynamic financial analysis and software risk assessment models are established and based on these analogies it suggested that dynamic risk model for software projects is the way to move forward for the risk assessment of software project. It is shown how software risk assessment change during different phases of a software project and hence requires a dynamic risk assessment model to capture these variations. Further evolution of dynamic financial analysis models is discussed and mapped to the evolution of software risk assessment models.

Keywords: Software Risk Assessment, Software ProjectManagement, Software Cost, Dynamic Modeling.

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Authors: Majid Riahi Samani, Seyed Mehdi Borghei

Abstract:

Absorptive characteristics of polyaniline synthesized in mixture of water and acetonitrile in 50/50 volume ratio was studied. Synthesized polyaniline in powder shape is used as an adsorbent to remove toxic hexavalent chromium from aqueous solutions. Experiments were conducted in batch mode with different variables such as agitation time, solution pH and initial concentration of hexavalent chromium. Removal mechanism is the combination of surface adsorption and reduction. The equilibrium time for removal of Cr(T) and Cr(VI) was about 2 and 10 minutes respectively. The optimum pH for total chromium removal occurred at pH 7 and maximum hexavalent chromium removal took place under acidic condition at pH 3. Investigating the isothermal characteristics showed that the equilibrium adsorption data fitted both Freundlich-s and Langmuir-s isotherms. The maximum adsorption of chromium was calculated 36.1 mg/g for polyaniline

Keywords: Polyaniline, Chromium, acetonitrile, Adsorption

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate. We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic forecasting used in academic research and in research and application by the governmental and other institutions

Keywords: Linear models, Macroeconomics, Neuro-Fuzzy, Non-Linear models

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

Abstract:

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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Authors: L. Grinis

Abstract:

Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly represented, while secondary mechanisms are often distorted. These observations form the basis of our study, which centered on problems associated with the design of storm water channels near the Dead Sea, in Israel. To help reach a final design decision we used different physical models. Our research showed good coincidence with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical calculations, and allowed us to study different effects of fluid flow in an open channel. We determined that problems of this nature cannot be solved only by means of theoretical calculation and computer simulation. This study demonstrates the use of physical models to help resolve very complicated problems of fluid flow through baffles and similar structures. The study applies these models and observations to different construction and multiphase water flows, among them, those that include sand and stone particles, a significant attempt to bring to the testing laboratory a closer association with reality.

Keywords: Baffles, open channel, physical modeling.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

Abstract:

Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: Kholod M. Abualnaja

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This paper consider the solution of the matrix differential models using quadratic, cubic, quartic, and quintic splines. Also using the Taylor’s and Picard’s matrix methods, one illustrative example is included.

Keywords: Matrix Splines, Cubic Splines, Quartic Splines.

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Authors: Mária Stachová, Lukáš Sobíšek

Abstract:

Data mining incorporates a group of statistical methods used to analyze a set of information, or a data set. It operates with models and algorithms, which are powerful tools with the great potential. They can help people to understand the patterns in certain chunk of information so it is obvious that the data mining tools have a wide area of applications. For example in the theoretical chemistry data mining tools can be used to predict moleculeproperties or improve computer-assisted drug design. Classification analysis is one of the major data mining methodologies. The aim of thecontribution is to create a classification model, which would be able to deal with a huge data set with high accuracy. For this purpose logistic regression, Bayesian logistic regression and random forest models were built using R software. TheBayesian logistic regression in Latent GOLD software was created as well. These classification methods belong to supervised learning methods. It was necessary to reduce data matrix dimension before construct models and thus the factor analysis (FA) was used. Those models were applied to predict the biological activity of molecules, potential new drug candidates.

Keywords: data mining, classification, drug design, QSAR

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