Search results for: impacts.

Authors: Tomáš Ludík, Josef Navrátil

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Managing the emergency situations at the Emergency Staff requires a high co-operation between its members and their fast decision making. For these purpose it is necessary to prepare Emergency Staff members adequately. The aim of this paper is to describe the development of information support that focuses to emergency staff processes and effective decisions. The information support is based on the principles of process management, and Process Framework for Emergency Management was used during the development. The output is the information system that allows users to simulate an emergency situation, including effective decision making. The system also evaluates the progress of the emergency processes solving by quantitative and qualitative indicators. By using the simulator, a higher quality education of specialists can be achieved. Therefore, negative impacts resulting from arising emergency situations can be directly reduced.

Keywords: Information Support for Emergency Staff, Effective Decisions, Process Framework, Simulation of Emergency Processes, System Development.

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Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

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Under the Paris Agreement 2015, the countries committed to address and combat the climate change and its negative impacts and agree to the target of reducing the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission substantially by limiting the global temperature to 2 0C above the pre-industrial level in this century. An international submit named “26th United Nations Climate Conference” (COP26) was held in Glasgow in 2021 with all committed countries agreed to finalize the outstanding element in Paris Agreement and Glasgow Climate Pact to keep 1.5 0C. In this paper, we will focus on the basic approach of waste strategy, recycling policy, circular economy strategy, net-zero strategy and sustainability strategy and the importance of the elements which affect the carbon emission, waste generation and energy conservation will be further reviewed with recommendation for future study.

Keywords: Net-zero carbon, climate change, carbon emission, energy consumption.

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Authors: M. N. Nwodo, Y. P. Cheng, N. H. Minh

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In the process of recovering oil in weak sandstone formations, the strength of sandstones around the wellbore is weakened due to the increase of effective stress/load from the completion activities around the cavity. The weakened and de-bonded sandstone may be eroded away by the produced fluid, which is termed sand production. It is one of the major trending subjects in the petroleum industry because of its significant negative impacts, as well as some observed positive impacts. For efficient sand management therefore, there has been need for a reliable study tool to understand the mechanism of sanding. One method of studying sand production is the use of the widely recognized Discrete Element Method (DEM), Particle Flow Code (PFC^3D) which represents sands as granular individual elements bonded together at contact points. However, there is limited knowledge of the particle-scale behavior of the weak sandstone, and the parameters that affect sanding. This paper aims to investigate the reliability of using PFC^3D and a simple Darcy flow in understanding the sand production behavior of a weak sandstone. An isotropic tri-axial test on a weak oil sandstone sample was first simulated at a confining stress of 1MPa to calibrate and validate the parallel bond models of PFC^3D using a 10m height and 10m diameter solid cylindrical model. The effect of the confining stress on the number of bonds failure was studied using this cylindrical model. With the calibrated data and sample material properties obtained from the tri-axial test, simulations without and with fluid flow were carried out to check on the effect of Darcy flow on bonds failure using the same model geometry. The fluid flow network comprised of every four particles connected with tetrahedral flow pipes with a central pore or flow domain. Parametric studies included the effects of confining stress, and fluid pressure; as well as validating flow rate – permeability relationship to verify Darcy’s fluid flow law. The effect of model size scaling on sanding was also investigated using 4m height, 2m diameter model. The parallel bond model successfully calibrated the sample’s strength of 4.4MPa, showing a sharp peak strength before strain-softening, similar to the behavior of real cemented sandstones. There seems to be an exponential increasing relationship for the bigger model, but a curvilinear shape for the smaller model. The presence of the Darcy flow induced tensile forces and increased the number of broken bonds. For the parametric studies, flow rate has a linear relationship with permeability at constant pressure head. The higher the fluid flow pressure, the higher the number of broken bonds/sanding. The DEM PFC^3D is a promising tool to studying the micromechanical behavior of cemented sandstones.

Keywords: Discrete Element Method, fluid flow, parametric study, sand production/bonds failure.

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Authors: Asim Kumar Pal, Debabrata Nath, Sumit Chakraborty

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This paper presents an economic game for sybil detection in a distributed computing environment. Cost parameters reflecting impacts of different sybil attacks are introduced in the sybil detection game. The optimal strategies for this game in which both sybil and non-sybil identities are expected to participate are devised. A cost sharing economic mechanism called Discriminatory Rewarding Mechanism for Sybil Detection is proposed based on this game. A detective accepts a security deposit from each active agent, negotiates with the agents and offers rewards to the sybils if the latter disclose their identity. The basic objective of the detective is to determine the optimum reward amount for each sybil which will encourage the maximum possible number of sybils to reveal themselves. Maintaining privacy is an important issue for the mechanism since the participants involved in the negotiation are generally reluctant to share their private information. The mechanism has been applied to Tor by introducing a reputation scoring function.

Keywords: Game theory, Incentive mechanism, Reputation, Sybil Attack

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Authors: Janjira Triped, Wipada Sanongraj, Bovornlak Oonkhanond, Sompop Sanongraj

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The main objective of this research is to synthesize silk fibroin fiber for indoor air particulate removal. Silk cocoons were de-gummed using 0.5 wt % Na2CO3 alkaline solutions at 90 Ó╣ìC for 60 mins, washed with distilled water, and dried at 80 Ó╣ìC for 3 hrs in a vacuum oven. Two sets of experiment were conducted to investigate the impacts of initial particulate matter (PM) concentration and that of air flow rate on the removal efficiency. Rice bran collected from a local rice mill in Ubonratchathani province was used as indoor air contaminant in this work. The morphology and physical properties of silk fibroin (SF) fiber were measured. The SEM revealed the deposition of PM on the used fiber. The PM removal efficiencies of 72.29 ± 3.03 % and 39.33 ± 1.99 % were obtained of PM10 and PM2.5, respectively, when using the initial PM concentration at 0.040 mg/m3 and 0.020 mg/m3 of PM10 and PM2.5, respectively, with the air flow rate of 5 L/min.

Keywords: Indoor air, Particulate matter, Scanning electron microscope (SEM), Silk fibroin fiber.

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Authors: Ethan Shafer, Timothy Graziano, Jay Fisher

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This research seeks to answer whether first-year courses at institutions of higher learning can impact STEM major selection. Unlike many universities, an entry-level technology course (often referred to as CS0) is required for all United States Military Academy (USMA) students–regardless of major–in their first year of attendance. Students at the Academy choose their major at the end of their first year of studies. Through student responses to a multi-semester survey, this paper identifies a number of factors that potentially influence STEM major selection. Student demographic data, pre-existing exposure and access to technology, perceptions of STEM subjects, and initial desire for a STEM major are captured before and after taking a CS0 course. An analysis of factors that contribute to student perception of STEM and major selection are presented. This work provides recommendations and suggestions for institutions currently providing or looking to provide CS0-like courses to their students.

Keywords: STEM major, STEM, pedagogy, digital literacy.

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Authors: Nükhet Konuk, N. Gamze Turan, Yüksel Ardalı

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Cities play a vital role in the social fabric of countries and in national and regional economic growth worldwide; however, the environmental effects of such growth need to be assessed and managed better. The critical and most immediate problems faced by cities of developing countries are the health impacts of urban pollution that derive from inadequate water, sanitation, drainage and solid waste services, poor urban and industrial waste management, and air pollution. As globalization continues, earth's natural processes transform local problems into international issues. The aim of this study is to provide a broad overview of the pollution from urban wastes and emissions in Turkey which is a developing country. It is aimed to underline the significance of reorganizing the institutional tools in a worldwide perspective in order to generate coherent solutions to urban problems, and to enhance urban quality.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, developing countries, environmental degradation, urban environmental problems.

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Authors: Wenhua Hou, Xing Liu, Deqiang Chen

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The ubiquitous payment problems within construction industry of China are notoriously hard to be resolved, thus lead to a series of impacts to the industry chain. Among of them, the most direct result is affecting the normal operation of contractors negatively. A wealth of research has already discussed reasons of the payment problems by introducing a number of possible improvement strategies. But the causalities of these problems are still far from harsh reality. In this paper, the authors propose a model for cash flow system of construction projects by introducing System Dynamics techniques to explore causal facets of the payment problem. The effects of payment arrears on both cash flow and profitability of project are simulated into four scenarios by using data from real projects. Simulating results show visible clues to help contractors quantitatively determining the consequences for the construction project that arise from payment delay.

Keywords: payment problems, cash flow, profitability, system dynamics.

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Authors: R. Hegedűs, É. Kerepeczki, D. Gál, F. Pekár, M. Oncsik Bíróné, Gy. Lakatos

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The growth of the aquaculture industry has been associated with negative environmental impacts through the discharge of raw effluents into the adjacent receiving water bodies. Macrophytes from natural saline lakes, which have adaptability to the high salinity, can be suitable for saline effluent treatment. Eight emergent species from natural saline area were planted in an experimental gravel bed hydroponic mesocosm (GBH) which was treated with effluent water from an intensive fish farm using geothermal water. In order to examine the applicability of the halophytes in treatment processes, we tested the relative efficacy of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), potassium (K), sodium (Na), magnesium (Mg) and calcium (Ca) removal for the saline wastewater treatment. Four of the eight species, which were Phragmites australis, Typha angustifolia, Glyceria maxima, Scirpus lacustris spp. tabernaemontani could survive and contribute the experimental treatment.

Keywords: Gravel bed hydroponic system, halophytes, intensive fish farm, salt removal

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Authors: L. Mota, O. Frausto

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Marine Protected Areas can benefit from nature based tourism, monitoring environmental impacts and also become target for human presence. From more than 3 million tourists visiting Cozumel Island every year, an average of 2,8 million arrive by cruise ship, and 41% are estimated to have motivation for water activities. The destination is relying so much on the tourism activity, that scuba diving and snorkeling in the National Park Reef of Cozumel sustain the major economic activity. In order to achieve the sustainable development indicator designed for regional environmental development, the PNAC offers a training course to tourism providers to access the protected area. This way, the update of the last 5 years of such training is directed to diving staff, boat crew and professionals, making them able to assist in managing the natural resource. Moreover, the case study is an example to be used for raising awareness among tourists visiting protected areas.

Keywords: Education, Marine Protected Area, scuba diving, sustainability, tourism.

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Authors: A. Ruimi, S. Goyal, B. M. Nour

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Interactive web-based computer simulations are needed by the medical community to replicate the experience of surgical procedures as closely and realistically as possible without the need to practice on corpses, animals and/or plastic models. In this paper, we offer a review on current state of the research on simulations of surgical threads, identify future needs and present our proposed plans to meet them. Our goal is to create a physics-based simulator, which will predict the behavior of surgical thread when subjected to conditions commonly encountered during surgery. To that end, we will i) develop three dimensional finite element models based on the Cosserat theory of elasticity ii) test and feedback results with the medical community and iii) develop a web-based user interface to run/command our simulator and visualize the results. The impacts of our research are that i) it will contribute to the development of a new generation of training for medical school students and ii) the simulator will be useful to expert surgeons in developing new, better and less risky procedures.

Keywords: Cosserat rod-theory, FEM simulations, Modeling, Surgical thread.

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Authors: Sharon S. Wu, Yong S. Park

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This project aims to study and evaluate the motorcycle crash bar, which is used to reduce injuries caused by side impacts to the motorcycle, and then develop an improved design using the engineering design process theory based on the current benchmark crash bar in order to lower the severity of motorcycle crash injuries. For this purpose, simulations for the crash bar are set up so that it travels at an angle towards a fixed concrete wall and collides at certain velocities. 3D CAD models are first designed in SolidWorks and dynamic crash simulations are then carried out using ANSYS to determine the lowest maximum Von-Mises stress over time and deformations by adjusting the parameters used in manufacturing the crash bar, including the velocity of the crash, material used, geometries with various radius fillets, and different thicknesses for the bar. The results of the simulation are used to determine the optimum parameters for a safer crash bar to withstand higher stress and deformation. Specifically, the von-Mises stress was reduced by at least 75% compared with the benchmark design by choosing aluminum alloy and a true unibar design.

Keywords: Crash bar, crash simulation, engineering design, motorcycle safety.

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Authors: Tayebeh Saghapour, Sara Moridpour, Russell George Thompson

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One of the common aims of transport policy makers is to switch people’s travel to active transport. For this purpose, a variety of transport goals and investments should be programmed to increase the propensity towards active transport mode choice. This paper aims to investigate whether built environment features in neighbourhoods could enhance the odds of active transportation. The present study introduces an index measuring public transport accessibility (PTAI), and a walkability index along with socioeconomic variables to investigate mode choice behaviour. Using travel behaviour data, an ordered logit regression model is applied to examine the impacts of explanatory variables on walking trips. The findings indicated that high rates of active travel are consistently associated with higher levels of walking and public transport accessibility.

Keywords: Active transport, public transport accessibility, walkability, ordered logit model.

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Authors: Hala A. Hassan, Vasiliki K. Tsiouri, Konstantinos E. Konstantinos

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Fugitive particulate matter (PM) is a major source of airborne pollution in the Middle East countries. The meteorological conditions and topography of the area makes it highly susceptible to wind-blown particles which raise many air quality concerns. Air quality tools such as field monitoring, emission factors and dispersion modeling have been used in previous research studies to analyze the release and impacts of fugitive PM in the region. However, these tools have been originally developed based on experiments made for European and North American regions. In this work, an experimental campaign was conducted on April-May 2014 in a construction site in Doha city, Qatar. The ultimate goal is to evaluate the applicability of the existing emission factors for construction sites in dry and arid areas like the Middle East.

Keywords: Air pollution, construction, emissions, middle east, fugitive particulate matter.

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Authors: Houshmand E. Masoumi

Abstract:

Residential self-selection has gained increasing attention in the Western travel behavior research during the past decade. Many studies in the US, UK, and Germany conclude that the role of individuals’ residential location choice on commute travel behavior is more important than that of the built environment or at least it has considerable effects. However the effectiveness of location choice in many countries and cultures like Iran is unclear. This study examines the self-selections in two neighborhoods in Tehran. As a part of a research about the influences of land use on travel behavior information about people’s location preferences was collected by direct questioning. The findings show that the main reasons for selecting the location of residential units are related to socio-economic factors such as rise of house price and affordability of house prices. Transportation has little impacts on location decisions. Moreover, residential self-selection accounts for only 3 to 7.5 percent of the pedestrian, PT, and car trips.

Keywords: Residential self-selection, Tehran, travel behavior, urban transportation.

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Authors: M. Mahli, A.I. Che-Ani, M.Z. Abd-Razak. N.M. Tawil, H. Yahaya

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Building condition assessment is a critical activity in Malaysia-s Comprehensive Asset Management Model. It is closely related to building performance that impact user-s life and decision making. This study focuses on public primary school, one of the most valuable assets for the country. The assessment was carried out based on CSP1 Matrix in Kuching Division of Sarawak, Malaysia. Based on the matrix used, three main criteria of the buildings has successfully evaluate: the number of defects; schools rating; and total schools rating. The analysis carried out on 24 schools found that the overall 4, 725 defects has been identified. Meanwhile, the overall score obtained was 45, 868 and the overall rating is 9.71, which is at the fair condition. This result has been associated with building age to evaluate its impacts on school buildings condition. The findings proved that building condition is closely related to building age and its support the theory that 'the ageing building has more defect than the new one'.

Keywords: building condition, CSP1 Matrix, assessment, school, Malaysia

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Authors: Brittany E. Coff, Tommy K. K. Ngai, Laura A. S. MacDonald

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Many organizations in the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) sector provide education and training in order to increase the effectiveness of their WASH interventions. A key challenge for these organizations is measuring how well their education and training activities contribute to WASH improvements. It is crucial for implementers to understand the returns of their education and training activities so that they can improve and make better progress toward the desired outcomes. This paper presents information on CAWST’s development and piloting of the evaluation methodology. The Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology (CAWST) has developed a methodology for evaluating education and training activities, so that organizations can understand the effectiveness of their WASH activities and improve accordingly. CAWST developed this methodology through a series of research partnerships, followed by staged field pilots in Nepal, Peru, Ethiopia and Haiti. During the research partnerships, CAWST collaborated with universities in the UK and Canada to: review a range of available evaluation frameworks, investigate existing practices for evaluating education activities, and develop a draft methodology for evaluating education programs. The draft methodology was then piloted in three separate studies to evaluate CAWST’s, and CAWST’s partner’s, WASH education programs. Each of the pilot studies evaluated education programs in different locations, with different objectives, and at different times within the project cycles. The evaluations in Nepal and Peru were conducted in 2013 and investigated the outcomes and impacts of CAWST’s WASH education services in those countries over the past 5-10 years. In 2014, the methodology was applied to complete a rigorous evaluation of a 3-day WASH Awareness training program in Ethiopia, one year after the training had occurred. In 2015, the methodology was applied in Haiti to complete a rapid assessment of a Community Health Promotion program, which informed the development of an improved training program. After each pilot evaluation, the methodology was reviewed and improvements were made. A key concept within the methodology is that in order for training activities to lead to improved WASH practices at the community level, it is not enough for participants to acquire new knowledge and skills; they must also apply the new skills and influence the behavior of others following the training. The steps of the methodology include: development of a Theory of Change for the education program, application of the Kirkpatrick model to develop indicators, development of data collection tools, data collection, data analysis and interpretation, and use of the findings for improvement. The methodology was applied in different ways for each pilot and was found to be practical to apply and adapt to meet the needs of each case. It was useful in gathering specific information on the outcomes of the education and training activities, and in developing recommendations for program improvement. Based on the results of the pilot studies, CAWST is developing a set of support materials to enable other WASH implementers to apply the methodology. By using this methodology, more WASH organizations will be able to understand the outcomes and impacts of their training activities, leading to higher quality education programs and improved WASH outcomes.

Keywords: Education and training, capacity building, evaluation, water and sanitation.

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Authors: Mahmoud Roushdi, Hany Mostafa, Khaled Kheireldin

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Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor are promising and important economic regions in Egypt due to the unique location and development opportunities. Thus, the climate change impacts should be assessed over the mentioned area. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the climate extreme indices in through the last 35 year over Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor in addition to predict the climate extreme indices up to 2100. Present and future climate indices were analyzed with using different RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from 2010 until 2100 for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor. Furthermore, both CanESM and HadGEM2 global circulation models were used. The results indicate that the number of summer days is predicted to increase, on the other hand the frost days is predicted to decrease. Moreover, it is noted a slight positive trend for the percentile of wet and extremely days R95p and R99p for RCP4.5 and negative trend for RCP8.5.

Keywords: Climate change, extreme indices, RCP, Sinai Peninsula.

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Authors: Aleksandre Ergeshidze

Abstract:

The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.

Keywords: Bayesian vector autoregression, contractionary depreciation, dollarization, nominal exchange rate, structural vector autoregression.

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Authors: Luísa P. Cruz-Lopes, Artur Figueirinha, Isabel Brás, Bruno Esteves

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Portugal is an important wine and olive oil producer, activities which generate a high quantity of residues commonly called grape stalks and olive cake, respectively. In this work grape stalks and olive cake were used as lignocellulosic adsorbents for wastewater containing lead treatment. To attain a better knowledge of the factors that could influence the quality of the treated wastewater, a chemical characterization of the materials used in the treatment was done. To access the ecotoxicological safety of the treated wastewater, several tests were performed.

The results of the toxicity test show that the samples leachate has a mild effect on the living models tested. The tests performed in lemna and bacteria were the most sensible to toxicity effects of the samples. The results obtained in this work evidenced the importance of use of simple and fast toxicity tests to predict impacts in the environment.

Keywords: Chemical composition, ecotoxicological, lignocellulosic residues, safety.

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Authors: Ranya Elkhayat

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This paper aims at offering a futures study for higher education in the Middle East. Paying special attention to the negative impacts of neoliberalism, the paper will demonstrate how higher education is now commodified, corporatized and how arts and humanities are eschewed in favor of science and technology. This conceptual paper argues against the neoliberal agenda and aims at providing an alternative exemplified in the Capabilities Approach with special reference to Martha Nussbaum’s theory. The paper is divided into four main parts: the current state of higher education under neoliberal values, a prediction of the conditions of higher education in the near future, the future of higher education using the theoretical framework of the Capabilities Approach, and finally, some areas of concern regarding the approach. The implications of the study demonstrate that Nussbaum’s Capabilities Approach will ensure that the values of education are preserved while avoiding the pitfalls of neoliberalism.

Keywords: Capabilities approach, education future, higher education, MENA.

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Authors: Mustafa Engin Basoğlu, Bekir Çakır

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The most important component affecting the efficiency of photovoltaic power systems are solar panels. In other words, efficiency of these systems are significantly affected due to the being low efficiency of solar panel. Thus, solar panels should be operated under maximum power point conditions through a power converter. In this study, design of boost converter has been carried out with maximum power point tracking (MPPT) algorithm which is incremental conductance (Inc-Cond). By using this algorithm, importance of power converter in MPPT hardware design, impacts of MPPT operation have been shown. It is worth noting that initial operation point is the main criteria for determining the MPPT performance. In addition, it is shown that if value of load resistance is lower than critical value, failure operation is realized. For these analyzes, direct duty control is used for simplifying the control.

Keywords: Boost converter, Incremental Conductance (Inc- Cond), MPPT, Solar panel.

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Authors: M.M. Jafarpour, Ar. Foolad, M.K. Mansouri, Z. Nikbakhsh, H. Saeedizade

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Ammonia nitrogen is one of the most hazardous water pollutants, discharging into water receptors through industrial effluents. Negative environmental impacts of such chemical species in hydrosphere include accelerated eutrophication, water toxicity and harming the aquatics. Natural zeolite clinoptilolite has very high selectivity & capacity for ammonium cation sorption. It occurs in high abundances and rich mines of this zeolite exist in different parts of Iran and thus are available more cheaply and with different sizing. The aim of this study is to investigate ammonia nitrogen removal over this natural sorbent from real samples of high polluted wastewater discharging from a fertilizer producing plant. The experimental results showed that this natural sorbent without even any pre treatment system & with the same particle size available in Iranian markets has still high capability & selectivity in ammonia nitrogen removal both in batch and continuous tests.

Keywords: Ammonia nitrogen removal, Clinoptilolite, Naturalzeolite, Waste water.

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Authors: L. N. A. Chandana Jayawardena, Ales Gregar

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Occupational Self Efficacy (OSE) reflects the conviction of a person’s ability to fulfill his job related behavior at a perfectly acceptable level to the employer. Transformational leadership improves followers’ commitment by influencing their needs, values, and self-esteem. Employees also develop a dyadic relationship with their immediate superiors. Study was conducted amongst one hundred and twenty two (122) bank managers in Sri Lanka. They were selected based on multi-stage (seniority in the hierarchy, gender, department-wise etc.) stratified random sampling. Major objectives of this study were to analyze the impact of Transformational leadership style, and OSE along with Sociodemographic factors, and Career, Job and Organizational experience, to the Career satisfaction of managers. SPSS software was used for parametric and non-parametric statistical analyses. Career satisfaction had positive impacts with their Transformational leadership style, and their relationships with the immediate superior. Impact of sociodemographic factors, and career exposure to career satisfaction was assessed.

Keywords: Career success, Relationship with immediate superior, Transformational leadership.

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Authors: Ghazwan Al-Haji

Abstract:

Most accidents occur in urban areas, and the most related casualties are vulnerable road users (pedestrians and cyclists). The traffic calming measures (TCMs) are widely used and considered to be successful in reducing speed and traffic volume. However, TCMs create unwanted effects include: noise, emissions, energy consumption, vehicle delays and emergency response time (ERT). Different vertical and horizontal TCMs have been already applied nationally (Sweden) and internationally with different impacts. It is a big challenge among traffic engineers, planners, and policy-makers to choose and priorities the best TCMs to be implemented. This study will assess the existing guidelines for TCMs in relation to safety and ERT with focus on data from Norrkoping city in Sweden. The expected results will save lives, time, and money on particularly Swedish Roads. The study will also review newly technologies and how they can improve safety and reduce ERT.

Keywords: Traffic safety, traffic calming measures, speeding, emergency response time.

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Authors: Jiajia Pan, Hung Tao Shen

Abstract:

Freeze and thaw occurs seasonally in river banks in northern countries. Little is known on how the riverbank soil temperature responds to air temperature changes and how freeze and thaw develops in a river bank seasonally. This study presents a two-dimensional heat conduction model for numerical investigations of seasonal freeze and thaw processes in an idealized river bank. The model uses the finite difference method and it is convenient for applications. The model is validated with an analytical solution and a field case with soil temperature distributions. It is then applied to the idealized river bank in terms of partially and fully saturated conditions with or without ice cover influence. Simulated results illustrate the response processes of the river bank to seasonal air temperature variations. It promotes the understanding of freeze and thaw processes in river banks and prepares for further investigation of frost and thaw impacts on riverbank stability.

Keywords: Freeze and thaw, river banks, 2D model, heat conduction.

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Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: A. Appe, B. Poluparthi, L. Kasivajjula, U. Mv, S. Bagadi, P. Modi, A. Singh, H. Gunupudi, S. Troiano, J. Paul, J. Stovall, J. Yamamoto

Abstract:

The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data are considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since it is data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for e.g., quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP, a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: Competition, DAGs, hospital, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP.

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Authors: Florian Gschösser, Walter Purrer

Abstract:

The paper shows examples for the (environmental) optimization of production processes for asphalt mixtures applied for typical road pavements in Austria and Switzerland. The conducted “from-cradle-to-gate” LCA firstly analyzes the production one cubic meter of asphalt and secondly all material production processes for exemplary highway pavements applied in Austria and Switzerland. It is shown that environmental impacts can be reduced by the application of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) and by the optimization of specific production characteristics, e.g. the reduction of the initial moisture of the mineral aggregate and the reduction of the mixing temperature by the application of low-viscosity and foam bitumen. The results of the LCA study demonstrate reduction potentials per cubic meter asphalt of up to 57 % (Global Warming Potential–GWP) and 77 % (Ozone depletion–ODP). The analysis per square meter of asphalt pavement determined environmental potentials of up to 40 % (GWP) and 56 % (ODP).

Keywords: Asphalt mixtures, environmental potentials, life cycle assessment, material production.

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Authors: Yousif Naif Almutai, Yajue Wu

Abstract:

In larger cities worldwide, mass transportation systems, including underground systems, have grown to account for the majority of travel in those settings. Underground networks are vulnerable to fires, however, endangering travellers’ safety, with various examples of fire outbreaks in this setting. This study aims to increase knowledge of the impacts of extreme climatic conditions on fires, including the role of the high ambient temperatures experienced in Middle Eastern countries and specifically in Saudi Arabia. This is an element that is not always included when assessments of fire safety are made (considering visibility, temperatures, and flows of smoke). This paper focuses on a tunnel within Riyadh’s underground system as a case study and includes simulations based on computational fluid dynamics using ANSYS Fluent, which investigates the impact of various ventilation systems while identifying smoke density, speed, pressure and temperatures within this tunnel.

Keywords: Fire, subway tunnel, CFD, ventilation, smoke concentration, harsh weather.

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