Search results for: emergency planning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1163

Search results for: emergency planning

203 A Partially Accelerated Life Test Planning with Competing Risks and Linear Degradation Path under Tampered Failure Rate Model

Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, cause of failure, intensity, linear degradation path, masked data, reliability function.

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202 Technological Deep Assessment of Automotive Parts Manufacturers Case of Iranian Manufacturers

Authors: Manouchehre Ansari, Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri, Reza Yousefi Zenouz

Abstract:

In order to develop any strategy, it is essential to first identify opportunities, threats, weak and strong points. Assessment of technology level provides the possibility of concentrating on weak and strong points. The results of technology assessment have a direct effect on decision making process in the field of technology transfer or expansion of internal research capabilities so it has a critical role in technology management. This paper presents a conceptual model to analyze the technology capability of a company as a whole and in four main aspects of technology. This model was tested on 10 automotive parts manufacturers in IRAN. Using this model, capability level of manufacturers was investigated in four fields of managing aspects, hard aspects, human aspects, and information and knowledge aspects. Results show that these firms concentrate on hard aspect of technology while others aspects are poor and need to be supported more. So this industry should develop other aspects of technology as well as hard aspect to have effective and efficient use of its technology. These paper findings are useful for the technology planning and management in automotive part manufactures in IRAN and other Industries which are technology followers and transport their needed technologies.

Keywords: Technology, Technological evaluation, TechnologyMaturity

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201 The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Foreign Students Studying in Hungary

Authors: Anita Kéri

Abstract:

Satisfying foreign student needs has been in the center of research interest in the past several years. Higher education institutions have been exploring factors influencing foreign student satisfaction to stay competitive on the educational market. Even though foreign student satisfaction and loyalty are topics investigated deeply in the literature, the academic years of 2020 and 2021 have revealed challenges never experienced before. With the COVID-19 pandemic, new factors have emerged that might influence foreign student satisfaction and loyalty in higher education. The aim of the current research is to shed lights on what factors influence foreign student satisfaction and loyalty in the post-pandemic educational era, and to reveal if the effects of factors influencing satisfaction and loyalty have changed compared to previous findings. Initial results show that students are less willing to participate in online surveys during and after the pandemic. The return rate of the survey instrument is below 5%. Results also reveal that there is a slight difference in what factors students deem important during pandemic times regarding their satisfaction and loyalty. The results of the current study help us determine what factors higher education institutions need to consider, when planning the future service affordances for their foreign students, that might influence their satisfaction and loyalty.

Keywords: COVID-19, foreign students, loyalty, pandemic, satisfaction.

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200 Performance Analysis of an Island Power System Including Wind Turbines Operating under Random Wind Speed

Authors: Meng-Jen Chen, Yu-Chi Wu, Guo-Tsai Liu, Sen-Feng Lin

Abstract:

With continuous rise of oil price, how to develop alternative energy source has become a hot topic around the world. This study discussed the dynamic characteristics of an island power system operating under random wind speed lower than nominal wind speeds of wind turbines. The system primarily consists of three diesel engine power generation systems, three constant-speed variable-pitch wind turbines, a small hydraulic induction generation system, and lumped static loads. Detailed models based on Matlab/Simulink were developed to cater for the dynamic behavior of the system. The results suggested this island power system can operate stably in this operational mode. This study can serve as an important reference for planning, operation, and further expansion of island power systems.

Keywords: Diesel engine power generation system, constant-speed variable-pitch wind turbine, small hydraulic induction generation system, penetration, Matlab/Simulink, SimPowerSystems.

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199 On Figuring the City Characteristics and Landscape in Overall Urban Design: A Case Study in Xiangyang Central City, China

Authors: Guyue Zhu, Liangping Hong

Abstract:

Chinese overall urban design faces a large number of problems such as the neglect of urban characteristics, generalization of content, and difficulty in implementation. Focusing on these issues, this paper proposes the main points of shaping urban characteristics in overall urban design: focuses on core problems in city function and scale, landscape pattern, historical culture, social resources and modern city style and digs the urban characteristic genes. Then, we put forward “core problem location and characteristic gene enhancement” as a kind of overall urban design technical method. Firstly, based on the main problems in urban space as a whole, for the operability goal, the method extracts the key genes and integrates into the multi-dimension system in a targeted manner. Secondly, hierarchical management and guidance system is established which may be in line with administrative management. Finally, by converting the results, action plan is drawn up that can be dynamically implemented. Based on the above idea and method, a practical exploration has been performed in the case of Xiangyang central city.

Keywords: City characteristics, overall urban design, planning implementation, Xiangyang central city.

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198 Research on Emotional Healing Street Furniture under the Background of Urban Micro-Renewal

Authors: Tanhao Gao, Hongtao Zhou

Abstract:

With the COVID-19 pandemic spreading worldwide, people are facing more significant mental pressure. The government and social groups are sparing no effort to find ways to heal people's emotions and return to normal life. Therefore, research on emotional healing has urgency and practical significance. From the perspective of urban planning, street furniture has the potential to become "emotional healing touchpoints." This study first analyzed the suitable places for adding emotional healing street furniture in the background of urban micro-renewal and combined the 15-minute living circle, the leftover space, and urban acupuncture theories, then used the 5W analysis method to show the main characteristics of emotionally healing street furniture. Finally, the research discovers four design strategies, which can be summarized as: A. Exploring the renewal potential of the leftover space; B. Integrating with local culture and the surrounding environment; C. Discovering quick and straightforward ways of interaction; D. Finding a delicate balance between artistry and functionality. Then, we take one emotional healing street furniture located on Chifeng Road as an example to show the design strategies vividly.

Keywords: Emotional healing, street furniture, urban micro-renewal, urban acupuncture.

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197 Daylightophil Approach towards High-Performance Architecture for Hybrid-Optimization of Visual Comfort and Daylight Factor in BSk

Authors: Mohammadjavad Mahdavinejad, Hadi Yazdi

Abstract:

The greatest influence we have from the world is shaped through the visual form, thus light is an inseparable element in human life. The use of daylight in visual perception and environment readability is an important issue for users. With regard to the hazards of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, and in line with the attitudes on the reduction of energy consumption, the correct use of daylight results in lower levels of energy consumed by artificial lighting, heating and cooling systems. Windows are usually the starting points for analysis and simulations to achieve visual comfort and energy optimization; therefore, attention should be paid to the orientation of buildings to minimize electrical energy and maximize the use of daylight. In this paper, by using the Design Builder Software, the effect of the orientation of an 18m2(3m*6m) room with 3m height in city of Tehran has been investigated considering the design constraint limitations. In these simulations, the dimensions of the building have been changed with one degree and the window is located on the smaller face (3m*3m) of the building with 80% ratio. The results indicate that the orientation of building has a lot to do with energy efficiency to meet high-performance architecture and planning goals and objectives.

Keywords: Daylight, window, orientation, energy consumption, design builder.

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196 Participatory Democracy to the Contemporary Problems of Polish Social Policy

Authors: Agnieszka Szczudlińska-Kanoś

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Socio-economic development, which is seen around the world today, has contributed to the emergence of new problems of a social nature. Different political, historical, geographical or economic conditions cause that, in addition to global issues of social policy such as an aging population, unemployment, migration, countries, regions, there are also specific new problems that require diagnosis, individualized approach and efficient, planned solutions. These should include, among others, digital addiction, peer violence, obesity among children, the problem of ‘legal highs’, stress, depression, diseases associated with environmental pollution etc. The central authorities, selected most often with the tools specific to representative democracy, that is, the general election, for many reasons, inter alia, organizational, communication, are not able to effectively diagnose their intensity, territorial distribution, and thus to effectively fight them. This article aims to show how in Poland, citizens influence solving problems related to the broader social policy implemented at the local government level and indicates the possibilities of improving those solutions. The conclusions of theoretical analysis have been supported by empirical studies, which tested the use of instruments of participatory democracy in the planning and creation of communal strategies for solving social problems in one of the Polish voivodeships.

Keywords: Commune, democracy, participation, social policy, social problems.

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195 Corporate Governance Role of Audit Committees in the Banking Sector: Evidence from Libya

Authors: Abdulaziz Abdulsaleh

Abstract:

This study aims at identifying the practices that should be taken into consideration by audit committees as a tool of corporate governance in Libyan commercial banks by investigating various perceptions on this topic. The study is based on a questionnaire submitted to audit committees ‘members at Libyan commercial banks, directors of internal audit departments as well as members of board of directors at these banks in addition to a number of external auditors and academic staff from Libyan universities. The study reveals that the role of audit committees has to be shifted from traditional areas of accounting to a broader role including functions related to financial reporting, audit planning, support the independence of internal and external auditors, acting as a channel of communication between external auditors and board of directors, reviewing external audit, and evaluating internal control systems. Although the study is a starting point in developing a framework of good audit committees’ practices in Libya, it is believed that the adoption of its results can result in enhancing the corporate governance practices not only in the banking sector but also in the entire corporate sector in Libya.

Keywords: Audit committees, Corporate Governance, Commercial Banks, Libya.

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194 Post Colonial Socio-Cultural Reflections in Telugu Literature

Authors: Kanakasabha Ramana

Abstract:

The Post colonial society in India has witnessed the turmoil to come out from the widespread control and influence of colonialism. The socio-cultural life of a society with all its dynamics is reflected in realistic forms of literature. The social events and human experience are drawn into a new creative form and are given to the reader as a new understanding and perspective of life. It enables the reader to understand the essence of life and motivates him to prepare for a positive change. After India becoming free from the colonial rule in 1947, systematic efforts were made by central and state governments and institutions to limit the role of English and simultaneously enlarge the function of Indian languages by planning in a strategic manner. The eighteen languages recognized as national languages are having very rich literatures. Telugu language is one among the Dravidian language family and is widely spoken by a majority of people. The post colonial socio-cultural factors were very well reflected in Telugu literature. The anti-colonial, reform oriented, progressive, post modernistic trends in Telugu literature are nothing but creative reflections of the post colonial society. This paper examines the major socio-cultural reflections in Telugu literature of the post colonial period.

Keywords: postcolonialism, culture, progressive movement, Telugu Literature.

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193 A New Suburb Renovation Concept

Authors: A. Soikkeli, L. Sorri

Abstract:

Finnish national research project, User- and Business-oriented Suburb Renovation Concept (KLIKK), was started in January 2012 and will end in June 2014. The perspective of energy efficiency is emphasised in the project, but also it addresses what improving the energy efficiency of suburban apartment buildings means from the standpoint of architecturally valuable buildings representing different periods. The project will also test the impacts of stricter energy efficiency requirements on renovation projects.

The primary goal of the project is to develop a user-oriented, industrial, economic renovation concept for suburban apartment building renovation, extension and construction of additional storeys. The concept will make it possible to change from performance- and cost-based operation to novel service- and user-oriented, site-specifically tailored renovation methods utilizing integrated order and delivery chains.

The present project is collaborating with Ministry of the Environment and participating cities in developing a new type of lighter town planning model for suburban renovations and in-fill construction. To support this, the project will simultaneously develop practices for environmental impact assessment tools in renovation and suburban supplementary and in-fill construction.

 

Keywords: Energy efficiency, Prefabrication, Renovation concept, Suburbs, Sustainability, User-Orientated.

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192 A Two-Stage Airport Ground Movement Speed Profile Design Methodology Using Particle Swarm Optimization

Authors: Zhang Tianci, Ding Meng, Zuo Hongfu, Zeng Lina, Sun Zejun

Abstract:

Automation of airport operations can greatly improve ground movement efficiency. In this paper, we study the speed profile design problem for advanced airport ground movement control and guidance. The problem is constrained by the surface four-dimensional trajectory generated in taxi planning. A decomposed approach of two stages is presented to solve this problem efficiently. In the first stage, speeds are allocated at control points, which ensure smooth speed profiles can be found later. In the second stage, detailed speed profiles of each taxi interval are generated according to the allocated control point speeds with the objective of minimizing the overall fuel consumption. We present a swarm intelligence based algorithm for the first-stage problem and a discrete variable driven enumeration method for the second-stage problem, since it only has a small set of discrete variables. Experimental results demonstrate the presented methodology performs well on real world speed profile design problems.

Keywords: Airport ground movement, fuel consumption, particle swarm optimization, smoothness, speed profile design.

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191 Automatic Choice of Topics for Seminars by Clustering Students According to Their Profile

Authors: J.R. Quevedo, E. Montañés, J. Ranilla, A. Bahamonde

Abstract:

The new framework the Higher Education is immersed in involves a complete change in the way lecturers must teach and students must learn. Whereas the lecturer was the main character in traditional education, the essential goal now is to increase the students' participation in the process. Thus, one of the main tasks of lecturers in this new context is to design activities of different nature in order to encourage such participation. Seminars are one of the activities included in this environment. They are active sessions that enable going in depth into specific topics as support of other activities. They are characterized by some features such as favoring interaction between students and lecturers or improving their communication skills. Hence, planning and organizing strategic seminars is indeed a great challenge for lecturers with the aim of acquiring knowledge and abilities. This paper proposes a method using Artificial Intelligence techniques to obtain student profiles from their marks and preferences. The goal of building such profiles is twofold. First, it facilitates the task of splitting the students into different groups, each group with similar preferences and learning difficulties. Second, it makes it easy to select adequate topics to be a candidate for the seminars. The results obtained can be either a guarantee of what the lecturers could observe during the development of the course or a clue to reconsider new methodological strategies in certain topics.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, clustering, organizingseminars, student profile

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190 A Simulation Tool for Projection Mapping Based on Mapbox and Unity

Authors: Noriko Hanakawa, Masaki Obana

Abstract:

A simulation tool is proposed for big-scale projection mapping events. The tool has four main functions based on Mapbox and Unity utilities. The first function is building three-dimensional models of real cities using Mapbox. The second function is movie projections to some buildings in real cities using Unity. The third is a movie sending function from a PC to a virtual projector. The fourth function is mapping movies with fitting buildings. The simulation tool was adapted to a real projection mapping event held in 2019. The event completed, but it faced a severe problem in the movie projection to the target building. Extra tents were set in front of the target building, and the tents became obstacles to the movie projection. The simulation tool developed herein could reconstruct the problems of the event. Therefore, if the simulation tool was developed before the 2019 projection mapping event, the problem of the tents being obstacles could have been avoided using the tool. Moreover, we confirmed that the simulation tool is useful for planning future projection mapping events to avoid various extra equipment obstacles, such as utility poles, planting trees, and monument towers.

Keywords: avoiding obstacles, projection mapping, projector position, real 3D map

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189 Students, Knowledge and Employability

Authors: James Moir

Abstract:

Citizens are increasingly are provided with choice and customization in public services and this has now also become a key feature of higher education in terms of policy roll-outs on personal development planning (PDP) and more generally as part of the employability agenda. The goal here is to transform people, in this case graduates, into active, responsible citizen-workers. A key part of this rhetoric and logic is the inculcation of graduate attributes within students. However, there has also been a concern with the issue of student lack of engagement and perseverance with their studies. This paper sets out to explore some of these conceptions that link graduate attributes with citizenship as well as the notion of how identity is forged through the higher education process. Examples are drawn from a quality enhancement project that is being operated within the context of the Scottish higher education system. This is further framed within the wider context of competing and conflicting demands on higher education, exacerbated by the current worldwide economic climate. There are now pressures on students to develop their employability skills as well as their capacity to engage with global issues such as behavioural change in the light of environmental concerns. It is argued that these pressures, in effect, lead to a form of personalization that is concerned with how graduates develop their sense of identity as something that is engineered and re-engineered to meet these demands.

Keywords: students, higher education, employability, knowledge, personal development

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188 Landslide, Earthquake and Flood Hazard Risks of Izmir Metropolitan City, A Case: Altindag Landslide Areas

Authors: Ahmet Kivanc Kutluca, Semahat Ozdemir

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Urban disaster risks and vulnerabilities are great problems for Turkey. The annual loss of life and property through disaster in the world-s major metropolitan areas is increasing. Urban concentrations of the poor and less-informed in environmentally fragile locations suffer the impact of disaster disproportionately. Gecekondu (squatter) developments will compound the inherent risks associated with high-density environments, in appropriate technologies, and inadequate infrastructure. On the other hand, there are many geological disadvantages such as sitting on top of active tectonic plate boundaries, and why having avalanche, flood, and landslide and drought prone areas in Turkey. However, this natural formation is inevitable; the only way to survive in such a harsh geography is to be aware of importance of these natural events and to take political and physical measures. The main aim of this research is to bring up the magnitude of natural hazard risks in Izmir built-up zone, not being taken into consideration adequately. Because the dimensions of the peril are not taken seriously enough, the natural hazard risks, which are commonly well known, are not considered important or they are being forgotten after some time passes. Within this research, the magnitude of natural hazard risks for Izmir is being presented in the scope of concrete and local researches over Izmir risky areas.

Keywords: Earthquake, Flood, Landslide, Natural Hazard Planning.

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187 Model Canvas and Process for Educational Game Design in Outcome-Based Education

Authors: Ratima Damkham, Natasha Dejdumrong, Priyakorn Pusawiro

Abstract:

This paper explored the solution in game design to help game designers in the educational game designing using digital educational game model canvas (DEGMC) and digital educational game form (DEGF) based on Outcome-based Education program. DEGMC and DEGF can help designers develop an overview of the game while designing and planning their own game. The way to clearly assess players’ ability from learning outcomes and support their game learning design is by using the tools. Designers can balance educational content and entertainment in designing a game by using the strategies of the Business Model Canvas and design the gameplay and players’ ability assessment from learning outcomes they need by referring to the Constructive Alignment. Furthermore, they can use their design plan in this research to write their Game Design Document (GDD). The success of the research was evaluated by four experts’ perspectives in the education and computer field. From the experiments, the canvas and form helped the game designers model their game according to the learning outcomes and analysis of their own game elements. This method can be a path to research an educational game design in the future.

Keywords: Constructive alignment, constructivist theory, educational game, outcome-based education.

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186 Sustainable Engineering: Synergy of BIM and Environmental Assessment Tools in the Hong Kong Construction Industry

Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

The construction industry plays an important role in environmental and carbon emissions as it consumes a huge amount of natural resources and energy. Sustainable engineering involves the process of planning, design, procurement, construction and delivery in which the whole building and construction process resulting from building and construction can be effectively and sustainability managed to achieve the use of natural resources. Implementation of sustainable technology development and innovation, adoption of the advanced construction process and facilitate the facilities management to implement the energy and waste control more accurately and effectively. Study and research in the relationship of BIM and environment assessment tools lack a clear discussion. In this paper, we will focus on the synergy of BIM technology and sustainable engineering in the AEC industry and outline the key factors which enhance the use of advanced innovation, technology and method and define the role of stakeholders to achieve zero-carbon emission toward the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A case study of the adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and environmental assessment tools in Hong Kong will be discussed in this paper.

Keywords: sustainability, sustainable engineering, BIM, LEED

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185 Load Forecasting Using Neural Network Integrated with Economic Dispatch Problem

Authors: Mariyam Arif, Ye Liu, Israr Ul Haq, Ahsan Ashfaq

Abstract:

High cost of fossil fuels and intensifying installations of alternate energy generation sources are intimidating main challenges in power systems. Making accurate load forecasting an important and challenging task for optimal energy planning and management at both distribution and generation side. There are many techniques to forecast load but each technique comes with its own limitation and requires data to accurately predict the forecast load. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one such technique to efficiently forecast the load. Comparison between two different ranges of input datasets has been applied to dynamic ANN technique using MATLAB Neural Network Toolbox. It has been observed that selection of input data on training of a network has significant effects on forecasted results. Day-wise input data forecasted the load accurately as compared to year-wise input data. The forecasted load is then distributed among the six generators by using the linear programming to get the optimal point of generation. The algorithm is then verified by comparing the results of each generator with their respective generation limits.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, demand-side management, economic dispatch, linear programming, power generation dispatch.

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184 A Simulation-Optimization Approach to Control Production, Subcontracting and Maintenance Decisions for a Deteriorating Production System

Authors: Héctor Rivera-Gómez, Eva Selene Hernández-Gress, Oscar Montaño-Arango, Jose Ramon Corona-Armenta

Abstract:

This research studies the joint production, maintenance and subcontracting control policy for an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system. Production activities are controlled by a derivation of the Hedging Point Policy, and given that the system is subject to deterioration, it reduces progressively its capacity to satisfy product demand. Multiple deterioration effects are considered, reflected mainly in the quality of the parts produced and the reliability of the machine. Subcontracting is available as support to satisfy product demand; also, overhaul maintenance can be conducted to reduce the effects of deterioration. The main objective of the research is to determine simultaneously the production, maintenance and subcontracting rate, which minimize the total, incurred cost. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed and solved through a simulation-based approach composed of statistical analysis and optimization with the response surface methodology. The obtained results highlight the strong interactions between production, deterioration and quality, which justify the development of an integrated model. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented to validate our results.

Keywords: Deterioration, simulation, subcontracting, production planning.

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183 Comprehensive Regional Drought Assessment Index

Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

Abstract:

Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: Drought, index variation, regional assessment, monitoring.

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182 Dynamics of Roe Deer (Capreolus capreolus) Vehicle Collisions in Lithuania: Influence of the Time Factors

Authors: Lina Galinskaitė, Gytautas Ignatavičius

Abstract:

Animal vehicle collisions (AVCs) affect human safety, cause property damage and wildlife welfare. The number of AVCs are increasing and creating serious implications for the animal conservation and management. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and other large ungulates (moose, wild boar, red deer) are the most frequently collided ungulate with vehicles in Europe. Therefore, we analyzed temporal patterns of roe deer vehicle collisions (RDVC) occurring in Lithuania. Using a comprehensive dataset, consisting of 15,891 data points, we examined the influence of different time units (i.e. time of the day, day of week, month, and season) on RDVC. We identified accident periods within the analyzed time units. Highest frequencies of RDVC occurred on Fridays. Highest frequencies of roe deer-vehicle accidents occurred in May, November and December. Regarding diurnal patterns, most of RDVC occur after sunset and before sunset (during dark hours). Since vehicle collisions with animals showed temporal variation, these should be taken into consideration in developing statistical models of spatial AVC patterns, and also in planning strategies to reduce accident risk.

Keywords: Animal vehicle collision, diurnal patterns, road safety, roe deer, statistical analysis.

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181 On the Paradigm Shift of the Overall Urban Design in China

Authors: Gaoyuan Wang, Tian Chen, Junnan Liu

Abstract:

Facing a period of major change that is rarely seen in a century, China formulates the 14th Five-Year Plan and places emphasis on promoting high-quality development. In this context, the overall urban design has become a crucial and systematic tool for high-quality urban development. However, there are bottlenecks in the cognition of nature, content scope and transmission mechanisms of the current overall urban design in China. The paper interprets the emerging demands of the 14th Five-Year Plan on urban design in terms of new value-quality priority, new dynamic-space performance, new target-region coordination and new path-refined governance. Based on the new trend and appeal, the multi-dimensional thinking integrated with the major tasks of urban design are proposed accordingly, which is the biomass thinking in ecological, production and living element, the strategic thinking in spatial structure, the systematic thinking in the cityscape, the low-carbon thinking in urban form, the governance thinking in public space, the user thinking in design implementation. The paper explores the possibility of transforming the value thinking and technical system of urban design in China and provides a breakthrough path for the urban planning and design industry to better respond to the propositions of the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: China’s 14th five-year plan, overall urban design, urban design thinking, transformation of urban design.

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180 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: Bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, Load Forecast, SARIMA, tensorflow probability, time series.

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179 The Capacity Building in the Natural Disaster Management of Thailand

Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

Abstract:

The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1) link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2) enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3) establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4) decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5) construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6) support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7) emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: Capacity Building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management, Natural Disaster Management, Thailand.

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178 Artificial Intelligence Model to Predict Surface Roughness of Ti-15-3 Alloy in EDM Process

Authors: Md. Ashikur Rahman Khan, M. M. Rahman, K. Kadirgama, M.A. Maleque, Rosli A. Bakar

Abstract:

Conventionally the selection of parameters depends intensely on the operator-s experience or conservative technological data provided by the EDM equipment manufacturers that assign inconsistent machining performance. The parameter settings given by the manufacturers are only relevant with common steel grades. A single parameter change influences the process in a complex way. Hence, the present research proposes artificial neural network (ANN) models for the prediction of surface roughness on first commenced Ti-15-3 alloy in electrical discharge machining (EDM) process. The proposed models use peak current, pulse on time, pulse off time and servo voltage as input parameters. Multilayer perceptron (MLP) with three hidden layer feedforward networks are applied. An assessment is carried out with the models of distinct hidden layer. Training of the models is performed with data from an extensive series of experiments utilizing copper electrode as positive polarity. The predictions based on the above developed models have been verified with another set of experiments and are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results. Beside this they can be exercised as precious tools for the process planning for EDM.

Keywords: Ti-15l-3, surface roughness, copper, positive polarity, multi-layered perceptron.

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177 Dynamic Admission Control Based on Effective Demand for Next Generation Wireless Networks

Authors: Somenath Mukherjee, Rajdeep Ray, Raj Kumar Samanta, Mofazzal H. Khondekar, Gautam Sanyal

Abstract:

In next generation wireless networks (i.e., 4G and beyond), one of the main objectives is to ensure highest level of customer satisfaction in terms of data transfer speed, decrease in cost and delay, non-rejection and no drop of calls, availability of ‘always-on’ connectivity and services, continuity of connected services, hastle-free roaming in addition to the convenience of use of network services from anywhere and anytime. To take care of these requirements effectively, internet service providers (ISPs) and network planners have to go for major capacity enhancement of network resources and at the same time these resources are to be used effectively and efficiently to reduce cost and to increase revenue. In this work, the effective bandwidth available in a Mobile Switching Center (MSC) of a wireless network providing multi-class multimedia services is analyzed. Bandwidth requirement of the users for a customized Quality of Service (QoS) is estimated. The findings of the QoS estimation are applied for the capacity planning and admission control of the multi-class traffic flows coming into the MSC.

Keywords: Next generation wireless network, mobile switching center, multi-class traffic, quality of service, admission control, effective bandwidth.

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176 Modeling the Country Selection Decision in Retail Internationalization

Authors: A. Hortacsu, A. Tektas

Abstract:

This paper aims to develop a model that assists the international retailer in selecting the country that maximizes the degree of fit between the retailer-s goals and the country characteristics in his initial internationalization move. A two-stage multi criteria decision model is designed integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Goal Programming. Ethical, cultural, geographic and economic proximity are identified as the relevant constructs of the internationalization decision. The constructs are further structured into sub-factors within analytic hierarchy. The model helps the retailer to integrate, rank and weigh a number of hard and soft factors and prioritize the countries accordingly. The model has been implemented on a Turkish luxury goods retailer who was planning to internationalize. Actual entry of the specific retailer in the selected country is a support for the model. Implementation on a single retailer limits the generalizability of the results; however, the emphasis of the paper is on construct identification and model development. The paper enriches the existing literature by proposing a hybrid multi objective decision model which introduces new soft dimensions i.e. perceived distance, ethical proximity, humane orientation to the decision process and facilitates effective decision making.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, culture, ethics, goal programming, retail foreign market selection.

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175 Shaping of World-Class Delhi: Politics of Marginalization and Inclusion

Authors: Aparajita Santra

Abstract:

In the context of the government's vision of turning Delhi into a green, privatized and slum free city, giving it a world-class image at par with the global cities of the world, this paper investigates into the various processes and politics of things that went behind defining spaces in the city and attributing an aesthetic image to it. The paper will explore two cases that were forged primarily through the forces of one particular type of power relation. One would be to look at the modernist movement adopted by the Nehruvian government post-independence and the next case will look at special periods like Emergency and Commonwealth games. The study of these cases will help understand the ambivalence embedded in the different rationales of the Government and different powerful agencies adopted in order to build world-classness. Through the study, it will be easier to discern how city spaces were reconfigured in the name of 'good governance'. In this process, it also became important to analyze the double nature of law, both as a protector of people’s rights and as a threat to people. What was interesting to note through the study was that in the process of nation building and creating an image for the city, the government’s policies and programs were mostly aimed at the richer sections of the society and the poorer sections and people from lower income groups kept getting marginalized, subdued, and pushed further away (These marginalized people were pushed away even geographically!). The reconfiguration of city space and attributing an aesthetic character to it, led to an alteration not only in the way in which citizens perceived and engaged with these spaces, but also brought about changes in the way they envisioned their place in the city. Ironically, it was found that every attempt to build any kind of facility for the city’s elite in turn led to an inevitable removal of the marginalized sections of the society as a necessary step to achieve a clean, green and world-class city. The paper questions the claim made by the government for creating a just, equitable city and granting rights to all. An argument is put forth that in the politics of redistribution of space, the city that has been designed is meant for the aspirational middle-class and elite only, who are ideally primed to live in world-class cities. Thus, the aim is to study city spaces, urban form, the associated politics and power plays involved within and understand whether segmented cities are being built in the name of creating sensible, inclusive cities.

Keywords: Aesthetics, ambivalence, governmentality, power, world-class.

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174 Guidelines for the Management and Sustainability Development of Forest Tourism Kamchanoad Baan Dung, Udon Thani

Authors: Pennapa Palapin

Abstract:

This study aimed to examine the management and development of forest tourism Kamchanoad. Ban Dung, Udon Thani sustainability. Data were collected by means of qualitative research including in-depth interviews, semi- structured, and then the data were summarized and discussed in accordance with the objectives. And make a presentation in the form of lectures. The target population for the study consisted of 16 people, including representatives from government agencies, community leaders and the community. The results showed that Guidelines for the Management and Development of Forest Tourism Kamchanoad include management of buildings and infrastructure such as roads, water, electricity, toilets. Other developments are the establishment of a service center that provides information and resources to facilitate tourists.; nature trails and informative signage to educate visitors on the path to the jungle Kamchanoad; forest activities for tourists who are interested only in occasional educational activities such as vegetation, etc.; disseminating information on various aspects of tourism through various channels in both Thailand and English, as well as a web site to encourage community involvement in the planning and management of tourism together with the care and preservation of natural resources and preserving the local cultural tourist area of Kamchanoad.

Keywords: Management and Development Guidelines, Tourist site, Sustainability.

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