Search results for: conditional probability

Authors: Olimpia Matarazzo, Fabrizio Ferrara

Abstract:

In two studies we tested the hypothesis that the appropriate linguistic formulation of a deontic rule – i.e. the formulation which clarifies the monadic nature of deontic operators - should produce more correct responses than the conditional formulation in Wason selection task. We tested this assumption by presenting a prescription rule and a prohibition rule in conditional vs. proper deontic formulation. We contrasted this hypothesis with two other hypotheses derived from social contract theory and relevance theory. According to the first theory, a deontic rule expressed in terms of cost-benefit should elicit a cheater detection module, sensible to mental states attributions and thus able to discriminate intentional rule violations from accidental rule violations. We tested this prevision by distinguishing the two types of violations. According to relevance theory, performance in selection task should improve by increasing cognitive effect and decreasing cognitive effort. We tested this prevision by focusing experimental instructions on the rule vs. the action covered by the rule. In study 1, in which 480 undergraduates participated, we tested these predictions through a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (type of the rule x rule formulation x type of violation x experimental instructions) between-subjects design. In study 2 – carried out by means of a 2 x 2 (rule formulation x type of violation) between-subjects design - we retested the hypothesis of rule formulation vs. the cheaterdetection hypothesis through a new version of selection task in which intentional vs. accidental rule violations were better discriminated. 240 undergraduates participated in this study. Results corroborate our hypothesis and challenge the contrasting assumptions. However, they show that the conditional formulation of deontic rules produces a lower performance than what is reported in literature.

Keywords: Deontic reasoning; Evolutionary, linguistic, logical, pragmatic factors; Wason selection task

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Authors: Guo-Ming Sung, Naga Raju Naik R.

Abstract:

Paper presents a low power, high speed, sense-amplifier based flip-flop (SAFF). The flip-flop’s power con-sumption and delay are greatly reduced by employing a new conditionally precharge sense-amplifier stage and a single-ended latch stage. Glitch-free and contention-free latch operation is achieved by using a conditional cut-off strategy. The design uses fewer transistors, has a lower clock load, and has a simple structure, all of which contribute to a near-zero setup time. When compared to previous flip-flop structures proposed for similar input/output conditions, this design’s performance and overall PDP have improved. The post layout simulation of the circuit uses 2.91µW of power and has a delay of 65.82 ps. Overall, the power-delay product has seen some enhancements. Cadence Virtuoso Designing tool with CMOS 90nm technology are used for all designs.

Keywords: high-speed, low-power, flip-flop, sense-amplifier

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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Authors: Zhanli Zhang, Wei Chen, Xin Jiang, Lili Ma, Shaoting Tang, Zhiming Zheng

Abstract:

A new class of percolation model in complex networks, in which nodes are characterized by hidden variables reflecting the properties of nodes and the occupied probability of each link is determined by the hidden variables of the end nodes, is studied in this paper. By the mean field theory, the analytical expressions for the phase of percolation transition is deduced. It is determined by the distribution of the hidden variables for the nodes and the occupied probability between pairs of them. Moreover, the analytical expressions obtained are checked by means of numerical simulations on a particular model. Besides, the general model can be applied to describe and control practical diffusion models, such as disease diffusion model, scientists cooperation networks, and so on.

Keywords: complex networks, percolation transition, hidden variable, occupied probability.

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Authors: Md. Sohidul Islam, Mohammad Rakibul Islam

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In this paper, we consider a non-identically independently distributed (non-i.i.d.) Hoyt fading single-input multiple-out put (SIMO) channel, where the transmitter sends some confidential information to the legitimate receiver in presence of an eavesdropper. We formulated the probability of non-zero secrecy mutual information; secure outage probability and average secrecy mutual information (SMI) for the SIMO wireless communication system. The calculation has been carried out using small limit argument approximation (SLAA) on zeroth-order modified Bessel function of first kind. In our proposed model, an eavesdropper observes transmissions of information through another Hoyt fading channel. First, we derived the analytical expression for non-zero secrecy mutual information. Then, we find the secure outage probability to investigate the outage behavior of the proposed model. Finally, we find the average secrecy mutual information. We consider that the channel state information (CSI) is known to legitimate receiver.

Keywords: Hoyt fading, main channel, eavesdropper channel, secure outage probability, average secrecy mutual information.

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Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Jerome Darmont, Nouria Harbi, Nguyen Huu Hoa, Mohammad Zahidur Rahman

Abstract:

In this paper, a new learning approach for network intrusion detection using naïve Bayesian classifier and ID3 algorithm is presented, which identifies effective attributes from the training dataset, calculates the conditional probabilities for the best attribute values, and then correctly classifies all the examples of training and testing dataset. Most of the current intrusion detection datasets are dynamic, complex and contain large number of attributes. Some of the attributes may be redundant or contribute little for detection making. It has been successfully tested that significant attribute selection is important to design a real world intrusion detection systems (IDS). The purpose of this study is to identify effective attributes from the training dataset to build a classifier for network intrusion detection using data mining algorithms. The experimental results on KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset demonstrate that this new approach achieves high classification rates and reduce false positives using limited computational resources.

Keywords: Attributes selection, Conditional probabilities, information gain, network intrusion detection.

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Authors: Zhichao Jiao, Craig Farnham, Jihui Yuan, Kazuo Emura

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It is common to use the outdoor design weather data to select the air-conditioning capacity in the building design stage. The meteorological elements of outdoor design weather data are usually selected based on their excess frequency separately while the dependency between the elements is not well considered. It means that the simultaneous occurrence probability of these elements is smaller than the original excess frequency which may cause an overestimation of selecting air-conditioning capacity. Therefore, the copula approach which can capture the dependency between multivariate data was used to model the joint distributions of the meteorological elements, like air temperature and global solar radiation. We suggest a method based on the specific simultaneous occurrence probability of these two elements of selecting more credible outdoor design conditions. The hourly weather data at 12 noon from 2001 to 2010 in Tokyo, Japan are used to analyze the dependency structure and joint distribution, the Gaussian copula represents the dependence of data best. According to calculating the air temperature and global solar radiation in specific simultaneous occurrence probability and the common exceeding, the results show that both the air temperature and global solar radiation based on simultaneous occurrence probability are lower than these based on the conventional method in the same probability.

Keywords: Copula approach, Design weather database, energy conservation, HVAC.

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Authors: M. Ranjeeth, S. Anuradha

Abstract:

Spectrum sensing is the main feature of cognitive radio technology. Spectrum sensing gives an idea of detecting the presence of the primary users in a licensed spectrum. In this paper we compare the theoretical results of detection probability of different fading environments like Rayleigh, Rician, Nakagami-m fading channels with the simulation results using energy detection based spectrum sensing. The numerical results are plotted as Pf Vs Pd for different SNR values, fading parameters. It is observed that Nakagami fading channel performance is better than other fading channels by using energy detection in spectrum sensing. A MATLAB simulation test bench has been implemented to know the performance of energy detection in different fading channel environment.

Keywords: Spectrum sensing, Energy detection, fading channels, Probability of detection, probability of false alarm.

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Authors: A. Zanaz, S. Yotte, F. Fouchal, A. Chateauneuf

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode corresponds to the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this consideration, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the voussoirs modulus variation is proposed. The most probable failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each variability level as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of variability, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increases with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young’s modulus of the segments is proven, taking it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: Masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault.

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Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

Abstract:

This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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Authors: Alhusein Almahjoub, Dongyu Qiu

Abstract:

This paper deals with the random access procedure in next-generation networks and presents the solution to reduce total service time (TST) which is one of the most important performance metrics in current and future internet of things (IoT) based networks. The proposed solution focuses on the calculation of optimal transmission probability which maximizes the success probability and reduces TST. It uses the information of several idle preambles in every time slot, and based on it, it estimates the number of backlogged IoT devices using Naïve Bayes estimation which is a type of supervised learning in the machine learning domain. The estimation of backlogged devices is necessary since optimal transmission probability depends on it and the eNodeB does not have information about it. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB which verify that the proposed solution gives excellent performance.

Keywords: Random access, LTE/LTE-A, 5G, machine learning, Naïve Bayes estimation.

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Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

Abstract:

A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: Expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms.

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Authors: Po-Wen Chen, Jin-Yu Wu, Md. Manirul Ali, Yang Peng, Chen-Te Chang, Der-Jun Jan

Abstract:

Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time. This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and the external magnetic field.

Keywords: Cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, transverse magnetic field, random walk.

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Authors: Pradip Deb

Abstract:

Quantitative radiobiological models can be used to assess the optimum clinical outcome from sophisticated therapeutic modalities by calculating tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). In this study two 3D-CRT and an IMRT treatment plans were developed with an initial prescription dose of 60 Gy in 2 Gy/fraction to prostate. Sensitivity of TCP and Complication free tumor control probability (P+) to the different values of α/β ratio was investigated for various prescription doses planned to be delivered in either a fixed number of fractions (I) or in a fixed dose per fraction (II) in each of the three different treatment plans. High dose/fraction and high α/β value result in comparatively smaller P+ and IMRT plans resulted in the highest P+, mainly due to the decrease in NTCP. If α/β is lower than expected, better tumor control can be achieved by increasing dose/fraction but decreasing the number of fractions.

Keywords: Linear Quadratic Model, TCP, NTCP, α/β ratio.

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Authors: M. Kargar, F. Gharbalchi

Abstract:

In this paper a new method is suggested for distributed data-mining by the probability patterns. These patterns use decision trees and decision graphs. The patterns are cared to be valid, novel, useful, and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. By using the suggested method we will be able to extract the useful information from massive and multi-relational data bases.

Keywords: Data-mining, Decision tree, Decision graph, Pattern, Relationship.

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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Authors: A. Habibizad Navin, M. Naghian Fesharaki, M. Mirnia, M. Kargar

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In this paper we introduce Digital Probability Hyper Digraph for modeling random variable as the hierarchical data-oriented model.

Keywords: Data-Oriented Models, Data Structure, DigitalProbability Hyper Digraph, Random Variable, Statistic andProbability.

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Authors: Lokesh Varshney, R. K. Saket

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability indices evaluation of the rotor core magnetization of the induction motor operated as a self excited induction generator by using probability distribution approach and Monte Carlo simulation. Parallel capacitors with calculated minimum capacitive value across the terminals of the induction motor operated as a SEIG with unregulated shaft speed have been connected during the experimental study. A three phase, 4 poles, 50Hz, 5.5 hp, 12.3A, 230V induction motor coupled with DC Shunt Motor was tested in the electrical machine laboratory with variable reactive loads. Based on this experimental study, it is possible to choose a reliable induction machines operated as a SEIG for unregulated renewable energy application in remote area or where grid is not available. Failure density function, cumulative failure distribution function, survivor function, hazard model, probability of success and probability of failure for reliability evaluation of the three phase induction motor operating as a SEIG have been presented graphically in this paper.

Keywords: Residual magnetism, magnetization curve, induction motor, self excited induction generator, probability distribution, Monte Carlo simulation.

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Authors: N. A. Salim, M. M. Othman, I. Musirin, M. S. Serwan

Abstract:

Hidden failure in a protection system has been recognized as one of the main reasons which may cause to a power system instability leading to a system cascading collapse. This paper presents a computationally systematic approach used to obtain the estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse by considering the effect of probability hidden failure in a protection system. The estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to determine the severe loading condition contributing to the higher risk of critical system cascading collapse. This information is essential to the system utility since it will assist the operator to determine the highest point of increased system loading condition prior to the event of critical system cascading collapse.

Keywords: Critical system cascading collapse, protection system hidden failure, severe loading condition.

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Authors: Andy Handouyahia, Tony Haddad, Frank Eaton

Abstract:

Recent quasi-experimental evaluation of the Canadian Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP) by Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC) has provided an opportunity to examine alternative methods to estimating the incremental effects of Employment Benefits and Support Measures (EBSMs) on program participants. The focus of this paper is to assess the efficiency and robustness of inverse probability weighting (IPW) relative to kernel matching (KM) in the estimation of program effects. To accomplish this objective, the authors compare pairs of 1,080 estimates, along with their associated standard errors, to assess which type of estimate is generally more efficient and robust. In the interest of practicality, the authorsalso document the computationaltime it took to produce the IPW and KM estimates, respectively.

Keywords: Treatment effect, causal inference, observational studies, Propensity score based matching, Kernel Matching, Inverse Probability Weighting, Estimation methods for incremental effect.

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Authors: Fenglong Guo, Dingcheng Wang

Abstract:

This paper studies ruin probabilities in two discrete-time risk models with premiums, claims and rates of interest modelled by three autoregressive moving average processes. Generalized Lundberg inequalities for ruin probabilities are derived by using recursive technique. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications of these probability inequalities.

Keywords: Lundberg inequality, NWUC, Renewal recursive technique, Ruin probability

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, Woo Young Jung

Abstract:

The failure of roof cladding mostly occurs due to the failing of the connection between claddings and purlins, which is the pull-out of the screw connecting the two parts when the pull-out load, i.e. typhoon, is higher than the resistance of the connection screw. As typhoon disasters in Korea are constantly on the rise, probability risk assessment (PRA) has become a vital tool to evaluate the performance of civil structures. In this study, we attempted to determine the fragility of roof cladding with the screw connection. Experimental study was performed to evaluate the pull-out resistance of screw joints between honeycomb panels and back frames. Subsequently, by means of Monte Carlo Simulation method, probability of failure for these types of roof cladding was determined. The results that the failure of roof cladding was depends on their location on the roof, for example, the edge most panel has the highest probability of failure.

Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, roof cladding, screw pull-out strength, wind fragility

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Authors: J. Daba, J. Dubois

Abstract:

In this work, we improve a previously developed segmentation scheme aimed at extracting edge information from speckled images using a maximum likelihood edge detector. The scheme was based on finding a threshold for the probability density function of a new kernel defined as the arithmetic mean-to-geometric mean ratio field over a circular neighborhood set and, in a general context, is founded on a likelihood random field model (LRFM). The segmentation algorithm was applied to discriminated speckle areas obtained using simple elliptic discriminant functions based on measures of the signal-to-noise ratio with fractional order moments. A rigorous stochastic analysis was used to derive an exact expression for the cumulative density function of the probability density function of the random field. Based on this, an accurate probability of error was derived and the performance of the scheme was analysed. The improved segmentation scheme performed well for both simulated and real images and showed superior results to those previously obtained using the original LRFM scheme and standard edge detection methods. In particular, the false alarm probability was markedly lower than that of the original LRFM method with oversegmentation artifacts virtually eliminated. The importance of this work lies in the development of a stochastic-based segmentation, allowing an accurate quantification of the probability of false detection. Non visual quantification and misclassification in medical ultrasound speckled images is relatively new and is of interest to clinicians.

Keywords: Discriminant function, false alarm, segmentation, signal-to-noise ratio, skewness, speckle.

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The principal purpose of this paper is to find the influence of maximum fatigue load on the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack in magnesium alloys. The experiments of fatigue crack propagation are carried out in laboratory air under different conditions of the maximum fatigue loads to obtain the fatigue crack propagation data for the statistical analysis. In order to analyze the probabilistic aspect of fatigue crack propagation life, the goodness-of fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack is implemented through Anderson-Darling test. The good probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is also verified under the conditions of the maximum fatigue loads.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation life, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load, probability.

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Authors: Jan Rychtar, Brian Stadler

Abstract:

We study how the outcome of evolutionary dynamics on graphs depends on a randomness on the graph structure. We gradually change the underlying graph from completely regular (e.g. a square lattice) to completely random. We find that the fixation probability increases as the randomness increases; nevertheless, the increase is not significant and thus the fixation probability could be estimated by the known formulas for underlying regular graphs.

Keywords: evolutionary dynamics, small-world networks

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Authors: M. A. Tayfun, M. A. Alkhalidi

Abstract:

The exact theoretical expression describing the probability distribution of nonlinear sea-surface elevations derived from the second-order narrowband model has a cumbersome form that requires numerical computations, not well-disposed to theoretical or practical applications. Here, the same narrowband model is reexamined to develop a simpler closed-form approximation suitable for theoretical and practical applications. The salient features of the approximate form are explored, and its relative validity is verified with comparisons to other readily available approximations, and oceanic data.

Keywords: Ocean waves, probability distributions, second-order nonlinearities, skewness coefficient, wave steepness.

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Authors: N.R.N. Idris

Abstract:

This study uses simulated meta-analysis to assess the effects of publication bias on meta-analysis estimates and to evaluate the efficacy of the trim and fill method in adjusting for these biases. The estimated effect sizes and the standard error were evaluated in terms of the statistical bias and the coverage probability. The results demonstrate that if publication bias is not adjusted it could lead to up to 40% bias in the treatment effect estimates. Utilization of the trim and fill method could reduce the bias in the overall estimate by more than half. The method is optimum in presence of moderate underlying bias but has minimal effects in presence of low and severe publication bias. Additionally, the trim and fill method improves the coverage probability by more than half when subjected to the same level of publication bias as those of the unadjusted data. The method however tends to produce false positive results and will incorrectly adjust the data for publication bias up to 45 % of the time. Nonetheless, the bias introduced into the estimates due to this adjustment is minimal

Keywords: Publication bias, Trim and Fill method, percentage relative bias, coverage probability

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Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

Abstract:

In this paper, a residue number arithmetic is used in direct sequence spread spectrum system, this system is evaluated and the bit error probability of this system is compared to that of non residue number system. The effect of channel bandwidth, PN sequences, multipath effect and modulation scheme are studied. A Matlab program is developed to measure the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the bit error probability for the various schemes.

Keywords: Spread Spectrum, Direct sequence, Bit errorprobability and Residue number system.

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Authors: Ahmad Habibizad Navin, Mehdi Naghian Fesharaki, Mirkamal Mirnia, Mohamad Teshnelab, Ehsan Shahamatnia

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce new data oriented modeling of uniform random variable well-matched with computing systems. Due to this conformity with current computers structure, this modeling will be efficiently used in statistical inference.

Keywords: Uniform random variable, Data oriented modeling, Statistical inference, Prodigraph, Statistically complete tree, Uniformdigital probability digraph, Uniform n-complete probability tree.

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Authors: Pooja, Megha Kulshrestha, V. K. Banga, Parvinder S. Sandhu

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To support mobility in ATM networks, a number of technical challenges need to be resolved. The impact of handoff schemes in terms of service disruption, handoff latency, cost implications and excess resources required during handoffs needs to be addressed. In this paper, a one phase handoff and route optimization solution using reserved PVCs between adjacent ATM switches to reroute connections during inter-switch handoff is studied. In the second phase, a distributed optimization process is initiated to optimally reroute handoff connections. The main objective is to find the optimal operating point at which to perform optimization subject to cost constraint with the purpose of reducing blocking probability of inter-switch handoff calls for delay tolerant traffic. We examine the relation between the required bandwidth resources and optimization rate. Also we calculate and study the handoff blocking probability due to lack of bandwidth for resources reserved to facilitate the rapid rerouting.

Keywords: Wireless ATM, Mobility, Latency, Optimization rateand Blocking Probability.

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