Search results for: bed occupancy rate

Authors: Wong Hock Tsen

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on real export in Malaysia. The moving standard deviation with order three (MSD(3)) is used for the measurement of exchange rate volatility. The conventional and partially asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are used in the estimations. This study finds exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real total export and some sub-categories of real total export. Moreover, this study finds that the positive or negative exchange rate volatility tends to have positive or negative impact on real export. Exchange rate volatility can be harmful to export of Malaysia.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, autoregressive distributed lag, export, Malaysia.

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Authors: Xiaodong Gao, Pingchuan Dong, Qichao Gao

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This work attempts to predict the deposition rate of asphaltene particles in blockage tube through CFD simulation. The Euler-Lagrange equation has been applied during the flow of crude oil and asphaltene particles. The net gravitational force, virtual mass, pressure gradient, Saffman lift, and drag forces are incorporated in the simulations process. Validation of CFD simulation results is compared to the benchmark experiments from the previous literature. Furthermore, the effects of blockage location, blockage length, and blockage thickness on deposition rate are also analyzed. The simulation results indicate that the maximum deposition rate of asphaltene occurs in the blocked tube section, and the greater the deposition thickness, the greater the deposition rate. Moreover, the deposition amount and maximum deposition rate along the length of the tube have the same trend. Results of this study are in the ability to better understand the deposition of asphaltene particles in production and help achieve to deal with the asphaltene challenges.

Keywords: Asphaltene deposition rate, blockage length, blockage thickness, blockage diameter, transient condition.

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Authors: In Su Na, Gunwon Lee, Seiyong Kim

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This study analyzed the effect of area variables and economic variables on the length of each period of the project in order to analyze the effect of agreement rate on project implementation in housing renewal projects. In conclusion, as can be seen from these results, a low agreement rate may not translate into project promotion, and a higher agreement rate may not translate into project delay. The expectation of the policy is that the lower the agreement rate, the more projects would be promoted, but that is not the actual effect. From a policy consistency viewpoint, changing the agreement rate frequently, depending on the decision of the public, is not reasonable. The policy of using agreement rate as a necessary condition for project implementation should be reconsidered.

Keywords: Area and Economic Variables, Elapsed time, Housing Renewal Project.

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Authors: Hamed Sabahno

Abstract:

In this paper, an inventory model with finite and constant replenishment rate, price dependant demand rate, time value of money and inflation, finite time horizon, lead time and exponential deterioration rate and with the objective of maximizing the present worth of the total system profit is developed. Using a dynamic programming based solution algorithm, the optimal sequence of the cycles can be found and also different optimal selling prices, optimal order quantities and optimal maximum inventories can be obtained for the cycles with unequal lengths, which have never been done before for this model. Also, a numerical example is used to show accuracy of the solution procedure.

Keywords: Deteriorating items, Dynamic programming, Finitereplenishment rate, Inventory control, Operation Research.

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Snježana Pivac, Boško Šego

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According to the interaction of inflation and unemployment, expectation of the rate of inflation in Croatia is estimated. The interaction between inflation and unemployment is shown by model based on three first-order differential i.e. difference equations: Phillips relation, adaptive expectations equation and monetary-policy equation. The resulting equation is second order differential i.e. difference equation which describes the time path of inflation. The data of the rate of inflation and the rate of unemployment are used for parameters estimation. On the basis of the estimated time paths, the stability and convergence analysis is done for the rate of inflation.

Keywords: Differencing, inflation, time path, unemployment.

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Authors: Abbas Khoshhal, Masoud Rahimi, Sayed Reza Shabanian, Ammar Abdulaziz Alsairafi

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In the present study, the rate of NOx emission in a combustion chamber working in conventional combustion and High Temperature Air Combustion (HiTAC) system are examined using CFD modeling. The effect of peak temperature, combustion air temperature and oxygen concentration on NOx emission rate was undertaken. Results show that in a fixed oxygen concentration, increasing the preheated air temperature will increase the peak temperature and NOx emission rate. In addition, it was observed that the reduction of the oxygen concentration in the fixed preheated air temperature decreases the peak temperature and NOx emission rate. On the other hand, the results show that increase of preheated air temperature at various oxygen concentrations increases the NOx emission rate. However, the rate of increase in HiTAC conditions is quite lower than the conventional combustion. The modeling results show that the NOx emission rate in HiTAC combustion is 133% less than that of the conventional combustion.

Keywords: CFD Modeling, HiTAC, NOx, Combustion.

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Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

Abstract:

We assessed the ecology of the organic and mineral soil layers of laurel-leaved (BB-1) and Cryptomeria japonica (BB-2 and Pw) forests in the Kasugayama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan). The soil respiration rate was higher in the deeper horizons (F and H) of organic layers than in those of mineral soil layers, suggesting organic layers may be where active microbial metabolism occurs. Respiration rates in the soil of BB-1, BB-2 and Pw forests were closely similar at 5 and 10°C. However, the soil respiration rate increased in proportion to temperatures of 15°C or above. We therefore consider the activity of soil microorganisms to markedly decrease at temperatures below 10°C. At a temperature of 15°C or above, the soil respiration rate in the BB-1 organic layers was higher than in those of the BB-2 and Pw organic layers, due to differences in forest vegetation that appeared to influence several salient soil properties, particularly pH and the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content of the F and H horizons.

Keywords: Forest soil, mineralization rate, soil respiration rate.

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Authors: P. B. Sob, A. A. Alugongo, T. B. Tengen

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Mechanical behavior of 6082T6 aluminum is investigated at different temperatures. The strain rate sensitivity is investigated at different temperatures on the grain size variants. The sensitivity of the measured grain size variants on 3-D grain is discussed. It is shown that the strain rate sensitivities are negative for the grain size variants during the deformation of nanostructured materials. It is also observed that the strain rate sensitivities vary in different ways with the equivalent radius, semi minor axis radius, semi major axis radius and major axis radius. From the obtained results, it is shown that the variation of strain rate sensitivity with temperature suggests that the strain rate sensitivity at the low and the high temperature ends of the 6082T6 aluminum range is different. The obtained results revealed transition at different temperature from negative strain rate sensitivity as temperature increased on the grain size variants.

Keywords: Nanostructured materials, grain size variants, temperature, yield stress, strain rate sensitivity.

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Authors: Benedek Kovacs, Janos Toth

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Solutions are proposed for the central problem of estimating the reaction rate coefficients in homogeneous kinetics. The first is based upon the fact that the right hand side of a kinetic differential equation is linear in the rate constants, whereas the second one uses the technique of neural networks. This second one is discussed deeply and its advantages, disadvantages and conditions of applicability are analyzed in the mirror of the first one. Numerical analysis carried out on practical models using simulated data, and our programs written in Mathematica.

Keywords: Neural networks, parameter estimation, linear regression, kinetic models, reaction rate coefficients.

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Authors: Il-Do Jeong, Hang-Geun Jeong

Abstract:

This paper describes the design and fabrication of a clock and data recovery circuit (CDR). We propose a new clock and data recovery which is based on a 1/4-rate frequency detector (QRFD). The proposed frequency detector helps reduce the VCO frequency and is thus advantageous for high speed application. The proposed frequency detector can achieve low jitter operation and extend the pull-in range without using the reference clock. The proposed CDR was implemented using a 1/4-rate bang-bang type phase detector (PD) and a ring voltage controlled oscillator (VCO). The CDR circuit has been fabricated in a standard 0.18 CMOS technology. It occupies an active area of 1 x 1 and consumes 90 mW from a single 1.8V supply.

Keywords: Clock and data recovery, 1/4-rate frequency detector, 1/4-rate phase detector.

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Young-Min Ko, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Recently developed cooperative diversity scheme enables a terminal to get transmit diversity through the support of other terminals. However, most of the introduced cooperative schemes have a common fault of decreased transmission rate because the destination should receive the decodable compositions of symbols from the source and the relay. In order to achieve high data rate, we propose a cooperative scheme that employs hierarchical modulation. This scheme is free from the rate loss and allows seamless cooperative communication.

Keywords: Cooperative communication, hierarchical modulation, high data rate, transmission scheme.

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate.

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Authors: Abhishek Agarwal, Manoj Sarda, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

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Propagation of fire through a non-air conditioned railway compartment is studied by virtue of numerical simulations. Simultaneous computational fire dynamics equations, such as Navier-Stokes, lumped species continuity, overall mass and energy conservation, and heat transfer are solved using finite volume based (for radiation) and finite difference based (for all other equations) solver, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). A single coupe with an eight berth occupancy is used to establish the numerical model, followed by the selection of a three coupe system as the fundamental unit of the locomotive compartment. Heat Release Rate Per Unit Area (HRRPUA) of the initial fire is varied to consider a wide range of compartmental fires. Parameters, such as air inlet velocity relative to the locomotive at the windows, the level of interaction with the ambiance and closure of middle berth are studied through a wide range of numerical simulations. Almost all the loss of lives and properties due to fire breakout can be attributed to the direct or indirect exposure to flames or to the inhalation of toxic gases and resultant suffocation due to smoke and soot. Therefore, the temporal stature of fire and smoke are reported for each of the considered cases which can be used in the present or extended form to develop guidelines to be followed in case of a fire breakout.

Keywords: Fire dynamics, flame propagation, locomotive fire, soot flow pattern.

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Authors: Hyoung-Muk Lim, Won-Jun Choi, Jae-Seon Yoon, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

Space-time block code(STBC) has been studied to get full diversity and full rate in multiple input multiple output(MIMO) system. Achieving full rate is difficult in cooperative communications due to the each user consumes the time slots for transmitting information in cooperation phase. So combining MIMO systems with cooperative communications has been researched for full diversity and full rate. In orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA) system, it is an alternative way that each user shares their allocated subchannels instead of using the MIMO system to improve the transmission rate. In this paper, a Decode-and-forward (DF) based cooperative communication scheme is proposed. The proposed scheme has improved transmission rate and reliability in multi-path fading channel of the OFDMA up-link condition by modified STBC structure and subchannel sharing.

Keywords: cooperation, improved rate, OFDMA, STBC.

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Authors: Desmond B. Keenan, Paul Grossman

Abstract:

In order to provide accurate heart rate variability indices of sympathetic and parasympathetic activity, the low frequency and high frequency components of an RR heart rate signal must be adequately separated. This is not always possible by just applying spectral analysis, as power from the high and low frequency components often leak into their adjacent bands. Furthermore, without the respiratory spectra it is not obvious that the low frequency component is not another respiratory component, which can appear in the lower band. This paper describes an adaptive filter, which aids the separation of the low frequency sympathetic and high frequency parasympathetic components from an ECG R-R interval signal, enabling the attainment of more accurate heart rate variability measures. The algorithm is applied to simulated signals and heart rate and respiratory signals acquired from an ambulatory monitor incorporating single lead ECG and inductive plethysmography sensors embedded in a garment. The results show an improvement over standard heart rate variability spectral measurements.

Keywords: Heart rate variability, vagal tone, sympathetic, parasympathetic, spectral analysis, adaptive filter.

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Authors: Jeng-Shin Sheu, Jenn-Kaie Lain, Tai-Kuo Woo, Jyh-Horng Wen

Abstract:

The least mean square (LMS) algorithmis one of the most well-known algorithms for mobile communication systems due to its implementation simplicity. However, the main limitation is its relatively slow convergence rate. In this paper, a booster using the concept of Markov chains is proposed to speed up the convergence rate of LMS algorithms. The nature of Markov chains makes it possible to exploit the past information in the updating process. Moreover, since the transition matrix has a smaller variance than that of the weight itself by the central limit theorem, the weight transition matrix converges faster than the weight itself. Accordingly, the proposed Markov-chain based booster thus has the ability to track variations in signal characteristics, and meanwhile, it can accelerate the rate of convergence for LMS algorithms. Simulation results show that the LMS algorithm can effectively increase the convergence rate and meantime further approach the Wiener solution, if the Markov-chain based booster is applied. The mean square error is also remarkably reduced, while the convergence rate is improved.

Keywords: LMS, Markov chain, convergence rate, accelerator.

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Authors: Y. Yılmaz, C. Ünal, A. Dursun

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Distribution channels play significant role for hotels. Direct and indirect selling options of hotel rooms have been increased especially with the help of new technologies, i.e. hotel’s own web sites and online booking sites. Although these options emerged as tools for diversifying the distribution channels, vast number of hotels -mostly resort hotels- is still heavily dependent upon international tour operators when selling their products. On the other hand, hotel sector is so vulnerable against crises. Economic, political or any other crisis can affect hotels very badly and so it is critical to have the right balance of distribution channel to avoid the adverse impacts of a crisis. In this study, it is aimed to search the impacts of a general crisis on the selling prices of hotels which have different weights of distribution channels. The study was done in Turkey where various crises occurred in 2015 and 2016 which had great negative impacts on Turkish tourism and led enormous occupancy rate and selling price reductions. 112 upscale resort hotel in Antalya, which is the most popular tourism destination of Turkey, joined to the research. According to the results, hotels with high dependency to international tour operators are more forced to reduce their room prices in crisis time compared to the ones which use their own web sites more. It was also found that the decline in room prices is limited for hotels which are working with national tour operators and travel agencies in crisis time.

Keywords: Marketing channels, crisis, hotel, international tour operators, online travel agencies.

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Authors: Yi Liao, Wencheng Yang, Gangyi Jiang

Abstract:

According to investigating impact of complexity of stereoscopic frame pairs on stereoscopic video coding and transmission, a new rate control algorithm is presented. The proposed rate control algorithm is performed on three levels: stereoscopic group of pictures (SGOP) level, stereoscopic frame (SFrame) level and frame level. A temporal-spatial frame complexity model is firstly established, in the bits allocation stage, the frame complexity, position significance and reference property between the left and right frames are taken into account. Meanwhile, the target buffer is set according to the frame complexity. Experimental results show that the proposed method can efficiently control the bitrates, and it outperforms the fixed quantization parameter method from the rate distortion perspective, and average PSNR gain between rate-distortion curves (BDPSNR) is 0.21dB.

Keywords: Stereoscopic video coding, rate control, stereoscopic group of pictures, complexity of stereoscopic frame pairs.

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Authors: Emanuele Stomeo, Tatiana Kalganova, Cyrille Lambert

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Evolvable hardware (EHW) refers to a selfreconfiguration hardware design, where the configuration is under the control of an evolutionary algorithm (EA). A lot of research has been done in this area several different EA have been introduced. Every time a specific EA is chosen for solving a particular problem, all its components, such as population size, initialization, selection mechanism, mutation rate, and genetic operators, should be selected in order to achieve the best results. In the last three decade a lot of research has been carried out in order to identify the best parameters for the EA-s components for different “test-problems". However different researchers propose different solutions. In this paper the behaviour of mutation rate on (1+λ) evolution strategy (ES) for designing logic circuits, which has not been done before, has been deeply analyzed. The mutation rate for an EHW system modifies values of the logic cell inputs, the cell type (for example from AND to NOR) and the circuit output. The behaviour of the mutation has been analyzed based on the number of generations, genotype redundancy and number of logic gates used for the evolved circuits. The experimental results found provide the behaviour of the mutation rate to be used during evolution for the design and optimization of logic circuits. The researches on the best mutation rate during the last 40 years are also summarized.

Keywords: Evolvable hardware, mutation rate, evolutionarycomputation, design of logic circuit.

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Authors: M. C. Venter, G. Hitge, S. C. Krygsman, J. Thiart

Abstract:

For decades, South Africa has been planning transportation systems from a supply, rather than a demand side, perspective. In terms of parking, this relates to requiring the minimum parking provision that is enforced by city officials. Newer insight is starting to indicate that South Africa needs to re-think this philosophy in light of a new policy environment that desires a different outcome. Urban policies have shifted from reliance on the private car for access, to employing a wide range of alternative modes. Car dominated travel is influenced by various parameters, of which the availability and location of parking plays a significant role. The question is therefore, what is the right strategy to achieve the desired transport outcomes for SA. The focus of this paper is used to assess this issue with regard to parking provision, and specifically at a tertiary institution. A parking audit was conducted at the Stellenbosch campus of Stellenbosch University, monitoring occupancy at all 60 parking areas, every hour during business hours over a five-day period. The data from this survey was compared with the prescribed number of parking bays according to the Stellenbosch Municipality zoning scheme (requiring a minimum of 0.4 bays per student). The analysis shows that by providing 0.09 bays per student, the maximum total daily occupation of all the parking areas did not exceed an 80% occupation rate. It is concluded that the prevailing parking standards are not supportive of the new urban and transport policy environment, but that it is extremely conservative from a practical demand point of view.

Keywords: Parking provision, parking requirements, travel behaviour, travel demand management.

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Authors: V. I. Thajudin Ahamed, P. Dhanasekaran, A. Naseem, N. G. Karthick, T. K. Abdul Jaleel, Paul K.Joseph

Abstract:

It is established that the instantaneous heart rate (HR) of healthy humans keeps on changing. Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has become a popular non invasive tool for assessing the activities of autonomic nervous system. Depressed HRV has been found in several disorders, like diabetes mellitus (DM) and coronary artery disease, characterised by autonomic nervous dysfunction. A new technique, which searches for pattern repeatability in a time series, is proposed specifically for the analysis of heart rate data. These set of indices, which are termed as pattern repeatability measure and pattern repeatability ratio are compared with approximate entropy and sample entropy. In our analysis, based on the method developed, it is observed that heart rate variability is significantly different for DM patients, particularly for patients with diabetic foot ulcer.

Keywords: Autonomic nervous system, diabetes mellitus, heart rate variability, pattern identification, sample entropy

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Authors: Nedeljko Cvejic, Tapio Sepp

Abstract:

A study of the obtainable watermark data rate for information hiding algorithms is presented in this paper. As the perceptual entropy for wideband monophonic audio signals is in the range of four to five bits per sample, a significant amount of additional information can be inserted into signal without causing any perceptual distortion. Experimental results showed that transform domain watermark embedding outperforms considerably watermark embedding in time domain and that signal decompositions with a high gain of transform coding, like the wavelet transform, are the most suitable for high data rate information hiding. Keywords?Digital watermarking, information hiding, audio watermarking, watermark data rate.

Keywords: Digital watermarking, information hiding, audio watermarking, watermark data rate.

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Authors: Emanuele Stomeo, Tatiana Kalganova, Cyrille Lambert

Abstract:

Evolvable hardware (EHW) is a developing field that applies evolutionary algorithm (EA) to automatically design circuits, antennas, robot controllers etc. A lot of research has been done in this area and several different EAs have been introduced to tackle numerous problems, as scalability, evolvability etc. However every time a specific EA is chosen for solving a particular task, all its components, such as population size, initialization, selection mechanism, mutation rate, and genetic operators, should be selected in order to achieve the best results. In the last three decade the selection of the right parameters for the EA-s components for solving different “test-problems" has been investigated. In this paper the behaviour of mutation rate for designing logic circuits, which has not been done before, has been deeply analyzed. The mutation rate for an EHW system modifies the number of inputs of each logic gates, the functionality (for example from AND to NOR) and the connectivity between logic gates. The behaviour of the mutation has been analyzed based on the number of generations, genotype redundancy and number of logic gates for the evolved circuits. The experimental results found provide the behaviour of the mutation rate during evolution for the design and optimization of simple logic circuits. The experimental results propose the best mutation rate to be used for designing combinational logic circuits. The research presented is particular important for those who would like to implement a dynamic mutation rate inside the evolutionary algorithm for evolving digital circuits. The researches on the mutation rate during the last 40 years are also summarized.

Keywords: Design of logic circuit, evolutionary computation, evolvable hardware, mutation rate.

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Authors: P. Suntivarakorn, S. Satmarong, C. Benjapiyaporn, S. Theerakulpisut

Abstract:

This paper was to study the clothes dryer using waste heat from a split type air conditioner with a capacity of 12,648 btu/h. The drying chamber had a minimum cross section area with the size of 0.5 x 1.0 m2. The chamber was constructed by sailcloth and was inside folded with aluminium foil. Then, it was connected to the condensing unit of an air conditioner. The experiment was carried out in two aspects which were the clothes drying with and without auxiliary fan unit. The results showed that the drying rate of clothes in the chamber installed with and without auxiliary fan unit were 2.26 and 1.1 kg/h, respectively. In case of the chamber installed with a auxiliary fan unit, the additional power of 0.011 kWh was consumed and the drying rate was higher than that of clothes drying without auxiliary fan unit. Without auxiliary fan unit installation, no energy was required but there was a portion of hot air leaks away through the punctured holes at the wall of the drying chamber, hence the drying rate was dropped below. The drying rate of clothes drying using waste heat was higher than natural indoor drying and commercial dryer which their drying rate were 0.17 and 1.9 kg/h, respectively. It was noted that the COP of the air conditioner did not change during the operating of clothes drying.

Keywords: Drying Rate, Clothes Dryer, COP, Air Conditioner.

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Authors: Ahmad Abbas Al-Ameen Salih, Nur Liyana Afiqah Che Ahmad Zaini, Amzari Zhahir

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Navigation is the processes of monitoring and controlling the movement of an object from one place to another. Currently, Global Positioning System (GPS) is the main navigation system used all over the world for navigation applications. GPS receiver receives signals from at least three satellites to locate and display itself. Displayed positioning information is updated continuously. Update rate is the number of times per second that a display is illuminated. The speed of update is governed by receiver update rate. A higher update rate decreases display lag time and improves distance measurements and tracking especially when moving on a curvy route. The majority of GPS receivers used nowadays are updated every second continuously. This period is considered reasonable for some applications while it is long relatively for high speed applications. In this paper, the suitability and feasibility of GPS receiver with different update rates will be evaluated for various applications according to the level of speed and update rate needed for particular applications.

Keywords: Navigation, Global Positioning System (GPS), GPS receiver, Update rate, Refresh rate, Satellite navigation, High speed GPS receiver.

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Authors: Manjit Singh

Abstract:

Multiscale entropy (MSE) is an extensively used index to provide a general understanding of multiple complexity of physiologic mechanism of heart rate variability (HRV) that operates on a wide range of time scales. Accurate selection of electrocardiogram (ECG) sampling frequency is an essential concern for clinically significant HRV quantification; high ECG sampling rate increase memory requirements and processing time, whereas low sampling rate degrade signal quality and results in clinically misinterpreted HRV. In this work, the impact of ECG sampling frequency on MSE based HRV have been quantified. MSE measures are found to be sensitive to ECG sampling frequency and effect of sampling frequency will be a function of time scale.

Keywords: ECG, heart rate variability, HRV, multiscale entropy, sampling frequency.

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Authors: S. Reaz Ahmed, M. S. Kaiser

Abstract:

The tribological behavior of commercially used Perspex was evaluated under dry and wet sliding condition using a pin-on-disc wear tester with different applied loads ranging from 2.5 to 20 N. Experiments were conducted with varying sliding distance from 0.2 km to 4.6 km, wherein the sliding velocity was kept constant, 0.64 ms^-1. The results reveal that the weight loss increases with applied load and the sliding distance. The nature of the wear rate was very similar in both the sliding environments in which initially the wear rate increased very rapidly with increasing sliding distance and then progressed to a slower rate. Moreover, the wear rate in wet sliding environment was significantly lower than that under dry sliding condition. The worn surfaces were characterized by optical microscope and SEM. It is found that surface modification has significant effect on sliding wear performance of Perspex.

Keywords: Perspex, wear, friction, SEM.

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Authors: R. Mechgoug, A. Titaouine

Abstract:

Fuzzy systems have been successfully used for exchange rate forecasting. However, fuzzy system is very confusing and complex to be designed by an expert, as there is a large set of parameters (fuzzy knowledge base) that must be selected, it is not a simple task to select the appropriate fuzzy knowledge base for an exchange rate forecasting. The researchers often look the effect of fuzzy knowledge base on the performances of fuzzy system forecasting. This paper proposes a genetic fuzzy predictor to forecast the future value of daily US Dollar/Euro exchange rate time’s series. A range of methodologies based on a set of fuzzy predictor’s which allow the forecasting of the same time series, but with a different fuzzy partition. Each fuzzy predictor is built from two stages, where each stage is performed by a real genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Foreign exchange rate, time series forecasting, Fuzzy System, and Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Manoj Sarda, Abhishek Agarwal, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

Abstract:

Railways in India remain primary mode of transport having one of the largest networks in the world and catering to billions of transits yearly. Catastrophic economic damage and loss to life is encountered over the past few decades due to fire to locomotives. Study of fire dynamics and fire propagation plays an important role in evacuation planning and reducing losses. Simulation based study of propagation of fire and soot inside an air conditioned coach of Indian locomotive is done in this paper. Finite difference based solver, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) version 6 has been used for analysis. A single air conditioned 3 tier coupe closed to ambient surroundings by glass windows having occupancy for 8 people is the basic unit of the domain. A system of three such coupes combined is taken to be fundamental unit for the entire study to resemble effect to an entire coach. Analysis of flame and soot contours and concentrations is done corresponding to variations in heat release rate per unit volume (HRRPUA) of fire source, variations in conditioned air velocity being circulated inside coupes by vents and an alternate fire initiation and propagation mechanism via ducts. Quantitative results of fractional area in top and front view of the three coupes under fire and smoke are obtained using MATLAB (IMT). Present simulations and its findings will be useful for organizations like Commission of Railway Safety and others in designing and implementing safety and evacuation measures.

Keywords: Air-conditioned coaches, fire propagation, flame contour, soot flow, train fire.

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Authors: Ivan Lovrinović, Gordana Kordić, Martina Nakić

Abstract:

There are little subjects in macroeconomics that are so widely discussed, but at the same time controversial and without a clear solution such as the choice of exchange rate regime. National authorities need to take into consideration numerous fundamentals, trying to fulfil goals of economic growth, low and stable inflation and international stability. This paper focuses on the countries of ex- Yugoslavia and their exchange rate history as independent states. We follow the development of the regimes in 6 countries during the transition through the financial crisis of the second part of the 2000s to the prospects of their final goal: full membership in the European Union. Main question is to what extent has the exchange regime contributed to their economic success, considering other objective factors.

Keywords: European Union, exchange rate regime, ex- Yugoslavia countries

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