Search results for: Slope stability analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9519

Search results for: Slope stability analysis

9429 Synthesis of the Robust Regulators on the Basis of the Criterion of the Maximum Stability Degree

Authors: S. A. Gayvoronsky, T. A. Ezangina

Abstract:

The robust control system objects with interval- undermined parameters is considers in this paper. Initial information about the system is its characteristic polynomial with interval coefficients. On the basis of coefficient estimations of quality indices and criterion of the maximum stability degree, the methods of synthesis of a robust regulator parametric is developed. The example of the robust stabilization system synthesis of the rope tension is given in this article.

Keywords: An interval polynomial, controller synthesis, analysis of quality factors, maximum degree of stability, robust degree of stability, robust oscillation, system accuracy.

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9428 Investigating the Effect of Uncertainty on a LP Model of a Petrochemical Complex: Stability Analysis Approach

Authors: Abdallah Al-Shammari

Abstract:

This study discusses the effect of uncertainty on production levels of a petrochemical complex. Uncertainly or variations in some model parameters, such as prices, supply and demand of materials, can affect the optimality or the efficiency of any chemical process. For any petrochemical complex with many plants, there are many sources of uncertainty and frequent variations which require more attention. Many optimization approaches are proposed in the literature to incorporate uncertainty within the model in order to obtain a robust solution. In this work, a stability analysis approach is applied to a deterministic LP model of a petrochemical complex consists of ten plants to investigate the effect of such variations on the obtained optimal production levels. The proposed approach can determinate the allowable variation ranges of some parameters, mainly objective or RHS coefficients, before the system lose its optimality. Parameters with relatively narrow range of variations, i.e. stability limits, are classified as sensitive parameters or constraints that need accurate estimate or intensive monitoring. These stability limits offer easy-to-use information to the decision maker and help in understanding the interaction between some model parameters and deciding when the system need to be re-optimize. The study shows that maximum production of ethylene and the prices of intermediate products are the most sensitive factors that affect the stability of the optimum solution

Keywords: Linear programming, Petrochemicals, stability analysis, uncertainty

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9427 Stability Bound of Ruin Probability in a Reduced Two-Dimensional Risk Model

Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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9426 A New Nonlinear Excitation Controller for Transient Stability Enhancement in Power Systems

Authors: M. Ouassaid, A. Nejmi, M. Cherkaoui, M. Maaroufi

Abstract:

The very nonlinear nature of the generator and system behaviour following a severe disturbance precludes the use of classical linear control technique. In this paper, a new approach of nonlinear control is proposed for transient and steady state stability analysis of a synchronous generator. The control law of the generator excitation is derived from the basis of Lyapunov stability criterion. The overall stability of the system is shown using Lyapunov technique. The application of the proposed controller to simulated generator excitation control under a large sudden fault and wide range of operating conditions demonstrates that the new control strategy is superior to conventional automatic voltage regulator (AVR), and show very promising results.

Keywords: Excitation control, Lyapunov technique, non linearcontrol, synchronous generator, transient stability, voltage regulation.

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9425 Stability Analysis of Neural Networks with Leakage, Discrete and Distributed Delays

Authors: Qingqing Wang, Baocheng Chen, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

This paper deals with the problem of stability of neural networks with leakage, discrete and distributed delays. A new Lyapunov functional which contains some new double integral terms are introduced. By using appropriate model transformation that shifts the considered systems into the neutral-type time-delay system, and by making use of some inequality techniques, delay-dependent criteria are developed to guarantee the stability of the considered system. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed main results.

Keywords: Neural networks, Stability, Time-varying delays, Linear matrix inequality.

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9424 Mean Square Stability of Impulsive Stochastic Delay Differential Equations with Markovian Switching and Poisson Jumps

Authors: Dezhi Liu

Abstract:

In the paper, based on stochastic analysis theory and Lyapunov functional method, we discuss the mean square stability of impulsive stochastic delay differential equations with markovian switching and poisson jumps, and the sufficient conditions of mean square stability have been obtained. One example illustrates the main results. Furthermore, some well-known results are improved and generalized in the remarks.

Keywords: Impulsive, stochastic, delay, Markovian switching, Poisson jumps, mean square stability.

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9423 Regional Stability Analysis of Rotor-Ball Bearing and Rotor- Roller Bearing Systems Considering Switching Phenomena

Authors: Jafar Abbaszadeh Chekan, Kaveh Merat, Hassan Zohoor

Abstract:

In this study the regional stability of a rotor system which is supported on rolling bearings with radial clearance is studied. The rotor is assumed to be rigid. Due to radial clearance of bearings and dynamic configuration of system, each rolling elements of bearings has the possibility to be in contact with both of the races (under compression) or lose its contact. As a result, this change in dynamic of the system makes it to be known as switching system which is a type of Hybrid systems. In this investigation by adopting Multiple Lyapunov Function theorem and using Hamiltonian function as a candidate Lyapunov function, the stability of the system is studied. The purpose of this study is to inspect the regional stability of rotor-roller bearing and rotor-ball bearing systems.

Keywords: Stability analysis, Rotor-rolling bearing systems, Switching systems, Multiple Lyapunov Function Method

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9422 Existence and Stability Analysis of Discrete-time Fuzzy BAM Neural Networks with Delays and Impulses

Authors: Chao Wang, Yongkun Li

Abstract:

In this paper, the discrete-time fuzzy BAM neural network with delays and impulses is studied. Sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and global stability of a unique equilibrium of this class of fuzzy BAM neural networks with Lipschitzian activation functions without assuming their boundedness, monotonicity or differentiability and subjected to impulsive state displacements at fixed instants of time. Some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: Discrete-time fuzzy BAM neural networks, ımpulses, global exponential stability, global asymptotical stability, equilibrium point.

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9421 A Quadcopter Stability Analysis: A Case Study Using Simulation

Authors: C. S. Bianca Sabrina, N. Egidio Raimundo, L. Alexandre Baratella, C. H. João Paulo

Abstract:

This paper aims to present a study, with the theoretical concepts and applications of the Quadcopter, using the MATLAB simulator. In order to use this tool, the study of the stability of the drone through a Proportional - Integral - Derivative (PID) controller will be presented. After the stability study, some tests are done on the simulator and its results will be presented. From the mathematical model, it is possible to find the Newton-Euler angles, so that it is possible to stabilize the quadcopter in a certain position in the air, starting from the ground. In order to understand the impact of the controllers gain values on the stabilization of the Euler-Newton angles, three conditions will be tested with different controller gain values.

Keywords: Controllers, drones, quadcopter, stability.

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9420 Stability Analysis of Impulsive Stochastic Fuzzy Cellular Neural Networks with Time-varying Delays and Reaction-diffusion Terms

Authors: Xinhua Zhang, Kelin Li

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of stability analysis for a class of impulsive stochastic fuzzy neural networks with timevarying delays and reaction-diffusion is considered. By utilizing suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii funcational, the inequality technique and stochastic analysis technique, some sufficient conditions ensuring global exponential stability of equilibrium point for impulsive stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks with time-varying delays and diffusion are obtained. In particular, the estimate of the exponential convergence rate is also provided, which depends on system parameters, diffusion effect and impulsive disturbed intention. It is believed that these results are significant and useful for the design and applications of fuzzy neural networks. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Keywords: Exponential stability, stochastic fuzzy cellular neural networks, time-varying delays, impulses, reaction-diffusion terms.

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9419 Effects of Tap Changing Transformer and Shunt Capacitor on Voltage Stability Enhancement of Transmission Networks

Authors: Pyone Lai Swe, Wanna Swe, Kyaw Myo Lin

Abstract:

Voltage stability has become an important issue to many power systems around the world due to the weak systems and long line on power system networks. In this paper, MATLAB load flow program is applied to obtain the weak points in the system combined with finding the voltage stability limit. The maximum permissible loading of a system, within the voltage stability limit, is usually determined. The methods for varying tap ratio (using tap changing transformer) and applying different values of shunt capacitor injection to improve the voltage stability within the limit are also provided.

Keywords: Load flow, Voltage stability, Tap changingtransformer, Shunt capacitor injection, Voltage stability limit

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9418 Effects of Channel Bed Slope on Energy Dissipation of Different Types of Piano Key Weir

Authors: Munendra Kumar, Deepak Singh

Abstract:

The present investigation aims to study the effect of channel bed slopes on energy dissipation across the different types of Piano Key Weir (PK weir or PKW) under the free-flow conditions in rigid rectangular channels. To this end, three different types (type-A, type-B, and type-C) of PKW models were tested and examined. To document and quantify this experimental investigation, a total of 270 tests were performed, including detailed observations of the flow field. The results show that the energy dissipation of all PKW models increases with the bed slopes and decreases with increasing the discharge over the weirs. In addition, the energy dissipation over the PKW varies significantly with the geometry of the weir. The type-A PKW has shown the highest energy dissipation than the other PKWs. As the bottom slope changed from Sb = 0% to 1.25%, the energy dissipation increased by about 8.5%, 9.1%, and 10.55% for type-A, type-B, and type-C, respectively.

Keywords: Piano key weir, bed slope, energy dissipation across PKW, free overfalls.

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9417 Analysis of a Spatiotemporal Phytoplankton Dynamics: Higher Order Stability and Pattern Formation

Authors: Randhir Singh Baghel, Joydip Dhar, Renu Jain

Abstract:

In this paper, for the understanding of the phytoplankton dynamics in marine ecosystem, a susceptible and an infected class of phytoplankton population is considered in spatiotemporal domain. Here, the susceptible phytoplankton is growing logistically and the growth of infected phytoplankton is due to the instantaneous Holling type-II infection response function. The dynamics are studied in terms of the local and global stabilities for the system and further explore the possibility of Hopf -bifurcation, taking the half saturation period as (i.e., ) the bifurcation parameter in temporal domain. It is also observe that the reaction diffusion system exhibits spatiotemporal chaos and pattern formation in phytoplankton dynamics, which is particularly important role play for the spatially extended phytoplankton system. Also the effect of the diffusion coefficient on the spatial system for both one and two dimensional case is obtained. Furthermore, we explore the higher-order stability analysis of the spatial phytoplankton system for both linear and no-linear system. Finally, few numerical simulations are carried out for pattern formation.

Keywords: Phytoplankton dynamics, Reaction-diffusion system, Local stability, Hopf-bifurcation, Global stability, Chaos, Pattern Formation, Higher-order stability analysis.

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9416 Stability Criteria for Neural Networks with Two Additive Time-varying Delay Components

Authors: Qingqing Wang, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the stability problem with two additive time-varying delay components. By choosing one augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, using some new zero equalities, and combining linear matrix inequalities (LMI) techniques, two new sufficient criteria ensuring the global stability asymptotic stability of DNNs is obtained. These stability criteria are present in terms of linear matrix inequalities and can be easily checked. Finally, some examples are showed to demonstrate the effectiveness and less conservatism of the proposed method.

Keywords: Neural networks, Globally asymptotic stability, LMI approach, Additive time-varying delays.

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9415 New Stability Analysis for Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays

Authors: Miaomiao Yang, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

This paper studies the problem of asymptotically stability for neural networks with time-varying delays.By establishing a suitable Lyapunov-Krasovskii function and several novel sufficient conditions are obtained to guarantee the asymptotically stability of the considered system. Finally,two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed main results.

Keywords: Neural networks, Lyapunov-Krasovskii, Time-varying delays, Linear matrix inequality.

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9414 Stability of Homogeneous Smart Beams based on the First Order Shear Deformation Theory Located on a Continuous Elastic Foundation

Authors: A. R. Nezamabadi, M. Karami Khorramabadi

Abstract:

This paper studies stability of homogeneous beams with piezoelectric layers subjected to axial load that is simply supported at both ends lies on a continuous elastic foundation. The displacement field of beam is assumed based on first order shear deformation beam theory. Applying the Hamilton's principle, the governing equation is established. The influences of applied voltage, dimensionless geometrical parameter and foundation coefficient on the stability of beam are presented. To investigate the accuracy of the present analysis, a compression study is carried out with a known data.

Keywords: Stability, Homogeneous beam- Piezoelectric layer

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9413 On the Robust Stability of Homogeneous Perturbed Large-Scale Bilinear Systems with Time Delays and Constrained Inputs

Authors: Chien-Hua Lee, Cheng-Yi Chen

Abstract:

The stability test problem for homogeneous large-scale perturbed bilinear time-delay systems subjected to constrained inputs is considered in this paper. Both nonlinear uncertainties and interval systems are discussed. By utilizing the Lyapunove equation approach associated with linear algebraic techniques, several delay-independent criteria are presented to guarantee the robust stability of the overall systems. The main feature of the presented results is that although the Lyapunov stability theorem is used, they do not involve any Lyapunov equation which may be unsolvable. Furthermore, it is seen the proposed schemes can be applied to solve the stability analysis problem of large-scale time-delay systems.

Keywords: homogeneous bilinear system, constrained input, time-delay, uncertainty, transient response, decay rate.

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9412 Bifurcation Analysis in a Two-neuron System with Different Time Delays

Authors: Changjin Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider a two-neuron system with time-delayed connections between neurons. By analyzing the associated characteristic transcendental equation, its linear stability is investigated and Hopf bifurcation is demonstrated. Some explicit formulae for determining the stability and the direction of the Hopf bifurcation periodic solutions bifurcating from Hopf bifurcations are obtained by using the normal form theory and center manifold theory. Some numerical simulation results are given to support the theoretical predictions. Finally, main conclusions are given.

Keywords: Two-neuron system, delay, stability, Hopf bifurcation.

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9411 PTH Moment Exponential Stability of Stochastic Recurrent Neural Networks with Distributed Delays

Authors: Zixin Liu, Jianjun Jiao Wanping Bai

Abstract:

In this paper, the issue of pth moment exponential stability of stochastic recurrent neural network with distributed time delays is investigated. By using the method of variation parameters, inequality techniques, and stochastic analysis, some sufficient conditions ensuring pth moment exponential stability are obtained. The method used in this paper does not resort to any Lyapunov function, and the results derived in this paper generalize some earlier criteria reported in the literature. One numerical example is given to illustrate the main results.

Keywords: Stochastic recurrent neural networks, pth moment exponential stability, distributed time delays.

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9410 Direct Transient Stability Assessment of Stressed Power Systems

Authors: E. Popov, N. Yorino, Y. Zoka, Y. Sasaki, H. Sugihara

Abstract:

This paper discusses the performance of critical trajectory method (CTrj) for power system transient stability analysis under various loading settings and heavy fault condition. The method obtains Controlling Unstable Equilibrium Point (CUEP) which is essential for estimation of power system stability margins. The CUEP is computed by applying the CTrjto the boundary controlling unstable equilibrium point (BCU) method. The Proposed method computes a trajectory on the stability boundary that starts from the exit point and reaches CUEP under certain assumptions. The robustness and effectiveness of the method are demonstrated via six power system models and five loading conditions. As benchmark is used conventional simulation method whereas the performance is compared with and BCU Shadowing method.

Keywords: Power system, Transient stability, Critical trajectory method, Energy function method.

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9409 Graphic Analysis of Genotype by Environment Interaction for Maize Hybrid Yield Using Site Regression Stability Model

Authors: Saeed Safari Dolatabad, Rajab Choukan

Abstract:

Selection of maize (Zea mays) hybrids with wide adaptability across diverse farming environments is important, prior to recommending them to achieve a high rate of hybrid adoption. Grain yield of 14 maize hybrids, tested in a randomized completeblock design with four replicates across 22 environments in Iran, was analyzed using site regression (SREG) stability model. The biplot technique facilitates a visual evaluation of superior genotypes, which is useful for cultivar recommendation and mega-environment identification. The objectives of this study were (i) identification of suitable hybrids with both high mean performance and high stability (ii) to determine mega-environments for maize production in Iran. Biplot analysis identifies two mega-environments in this study. The first mega-environments included KRM, KSH, MGN, DZF A, KRJ, DRB, DZF B, SHZ B, and KHM, where G10 hybrid was the best performing hybrid. The second mega-environment included ESF B, ESF A, and SHZ A, where G4 hybrid was the best hybrid. According to the ideal-hybrid biplot, G10 hybrid was better than all other hybrids, followed by the G1 and G3 hybrids. These hybrids were identified as best hybrids that have high grain yield and high yield stability. GGE biplot analysis provided a framework for identifying the target testing locations that discriminates genotypes that are high yielding and stable.

Keywords: Zea mays L, GGE biplot, Multi-environment trials, Yield stability.

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9408 Approximately Jordan Maps and Their Stability

Authors: Nasrin Eghbali

Abstract:

In this paper we consider the approximate Jordan maps and boundedness of these maps. Also we investigate the stability of approximate Jordan maps and prove some stability properties for approximate Jordan maps.

Keywords: Approximate Jordan map, stability.

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9407 Assessing and Visualizing the Stability of Feature Selectors: A Case Study with Spectral Data

Authors: R.Guzman-Martinez, Oscar Garcia-Olalla, R.Alaiz-Rodriguez

Abstract:

Feature selection plays an important role in applications with high dimensional data. The assessment of the stability of feature selection/ranking algorithms becomes an important issue when the dataset is small and the aim is to gain insight into the underlying process by analyzing the most relevant features. In this work, we propose a graphical approach that enables to analyze the similarity between feature ranking techniques as well as their individual stability. Moreover, it works with whatever stability metric (Canberra distance, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Kuncheva's stability index,...). We illustrate this visualization technique evaluating the stability of several feature selection techniques on a spectral binary dataset. Experimental results with a neural-based classifier show that stability and ranking quality may not be linked together and both issues have to be studied jointly in order to offer answers to the domain experts.

Keywords: Feature Selection Stability, Spectral data, Data visualization

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9406 Stability Analysis for an Extended Model of the Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Thyroid Axis

Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

Abstract:

We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid homoeostatic mechanism in endocrine system. We introduce to this system two types of couplings and delay. In our model, feedback controls the secretion of thyroid hormones and delay reflects time lags required for transportation of the hormones. The influence of delayed feedback on the stability behaviour of the system is discussed. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. This system of equations describes normal activity of the thyroid and also a couple of types of malfunctions (e.g. hyperthyroidism).

Keywords: Mathematical modeling, ordinary differential equations, endocrine system, stability analysis.

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9405 Linear Stability Characteristics of Wake-Shear Layers in Two-Phase Shallow Flows

Authors: Inta Volodko, Valentina Koliskina

Abstract:

Linear stability of wake-shear layers in two-phase shallow flows is analyzed in the present paper. Stability analysis is based on two-dimensional shallow water equations. It is assumed that the fluid contains uniformly distributed solid particles. No dynamic interaction between the carrier fluid and particles is expected in the initial moment. Linear stability curves are obtained for different values of the particle loading parameter, the velocity ratio and the velocity deficit. It is shown that the increase in the velocity ratio destabilizes the flow. The particle loading parameter has a stabilizing effect on the flow. The role of the velocity deficit is also destabilizing: the increase of the velocity deficit leads to less stable flow.

Keywords: Linear stability, Shallow flows, Wake-shear flows.

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9404 Linear Dynamic Stability Analysis of a Continuous Rotor-Disk-Blades System

Authors: F. Rahimi Dehgolan, S. E. Khadem, S. Bab, M. Najafee

Abstract:

Nowadays, using rotating systems like shafts and disks in industrial machines have been increased constantly. Dynamic stability is one of the most important factors in designing rotating systems. In this study, linear frequencies and stability of a coupled continuous flexible rotor-disk-blades system are studied. The Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is utilized to model the blade and shaft. The equations of motion are extracted using the extended Hamilton principle. The equations of motion have been simplified using the Coleman and complex transformations method. The natural frequencies of the linear part of the system are extracted, and the effects of various system parameters on the natural frequencies and decay rates (stability condition) are clarified. It can be seen that the centrifugal stiffening effect applied to the blades is the most important parameter for stability of the considered rotating system. This result highlights the importance of considering this stiffing effect in blades equation.

Keywords: Rotating shaft, flexible blades, centrifugal stiffening, stability.

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9403 Experimental Study on Modified Double Slope Solar Still and Modified Basin Type Double Slope Multiwick Solar Still

Authors: Piyush Pal, Rahul Dev

Abstract:

Water is essential for life and fresh water is a finite resource that is becoming scarce day by day even though it is recycled by hydrological cycle. The fresh water reserves are being polluted due to expanding irrigation, industries, urban population and its development. Contaminated water leads to several health problems. With the increasing demand of fresh water, solar distillation is an alternate solution which uses solar energy to evaporate water and then to condense it, thereby collecting distilled water within or outside the same system to use it as potable water. The structure that houses the process is known as a 'solar still'. In this paper, ‘Modified double slope solar still (MDSSS)’ & 'Modified double slope basin type multiwick solar still (MDSBMSS)' have been designed to convert saline, brackish water into drinking water. In this work two different modified solar stills are fabricated to study the performance of these solar stills. For modification of solar stills, Fibre Reinforced Plastic (FRP) and Acrylic sheets are used. The experiments in MDSBMSS and MDSSS was carried on 10 September 2015 & 5 November 2015 respectively. Performances of the stills were investigated. The amount of distillate has been found 3624 Ml/day in MDSBMSS on 10 September 2015 and 2400 Ml/day in MDSSS on 5 November 2015.

Keywords: Contaminated water, Conventional solar still, Modified solar still, Wick.

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9402 Stability Analysis of a Human-Mosquito Model of Malaria with Infective Immigrants

Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

Abstract:

In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: Susceptible, exposed, infective, recovered, infective immigrants, reproduction number, Lyapunov function, equilibrium points, global stability.

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9401 Geotechnical Design of Bridge Foundations and Approaches in Hilly Granite Formation

Authors: Q. J. Yang

Abstract:

This paper presents a case study of geotechnical design of bridge foundations and approaches in hilly granite formation in northern New South Wales of Australia. Firstly, the geological formation and existing cut slope conditions which have high risks of rock fall will be described. The bridge has three spans to be constructed using balanced cantilever method with a middle span of 150 m. After concept design option engineering, it was decided to change from pile foundation to pad footing with ground anchor system to optimize the bridge foundation design. The geotechnical design parameters were derived after two staged site investigations. The foundation design was carried out to satisfy both serviceability limit state and ultimate limit state during construction and in operation. It was found that the pad footing design was governed by serviceability limit state design loading cases. The design of bridge foundation also considered presence of weak rock layer intrusion and a layer of “no core” to ensure foundation stability. The precast mass concrete block system was considered for the retaining walls for the bridge approaches to resolve the constructability issue over hilly terrain. The design considered the retaining wall block sliding stability, while the overturning and internal stabilities are satisfied.

Keywords: Pad footing, hilly formation, stability, block works.

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9400 Development of an ArcGIS Toolbar for Trend Analysis of Climatic Data

Authors: Arnab Bandyopadhyay, Anubhab Pal, Subhajit Debnath

Abstract:

Climate change is a cumulative change in weather patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data. Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found. However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.

Keywords: Temporal trend, climate change, ArcGIS, Mann- Kendall test, Sen slope

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