Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2385

Search results for: Prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution

2385 On Bayesian Analysis of Failure Rate under Topp Leone Distribution using Complete and Censored Samples

Authors: N. Feroze, M. Aslam

Abstract:

The article is concerned with analysis of failure rate (shape parameter) under the Topp Leone distribution using a Bayesian framework. Different loss functions and a couple of noninformative priors have been assumed for posterior estimation. The posterior predictive distributions have also been derived. A simulation study has been carried to compare the performance of different estimators. A real life example has been used to illustrate the applicability of the results obtained. The findings of the study suggest  that the precautionary loss function based on Jeffreys prior and singly type II censored samples can effectively be employed to obtain the Bayes estimate of the failure rate under Topp Leone distribution.

Keywords: loss functions, type II censoring, posterior distribution, Bayes estimators.

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2384 Multinomial Dirichlet Gaussian Process Model for Classification of Multidimensional Data

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: Multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, Importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, Marginal likelihood evidence.

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2383 Human Action Recognition Using Variational Bayesian HMM with Dirichlet Process Mixture of Gaussian Wishart Emission Model

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: Human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, Prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset.

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2382 An Estimating Parameter of the Mean in Normal Distribution by Maximum Likelihood, Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

This paper is to compare the parameter estimation of the mean in normal distribution by Maximum Likelihood (ML), Bayes, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The ML estimator is estimated by the average of data, the Bayes method is considered from the prior distribution to estimate Bayes estimator, and MCMC estimator is approximated by Gibbs sampling from posterior distribution. These methods are also to estimate a parameter then the hypothesis testing is used to check a robustness of the estimators. Data are simulated from normal distribution with the true parameter of mean 2, and variance 4, 9, and 16 when the sample sizes is set as 10, 20, 30, and 50. From the results, it can be seen that the estimation of MLE, and MCMC are perceivably different from the true parameter when the sample size is 10 and 20 with variance 16. Furthermore, the Bayes estimator is estimated from the prior distribution when mean is 1, and variance is 12 which showed the significant difference in mean with variance 9 at the sample size 10 and 20.

Keywords: Bayes method, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, Maximum Likelihood method, normal distribution.

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2381 Estimation of Bayesian Sample Size for Binomial Proportions Using Areas P-tolerance with Lowest Posterior Loss

Authors: H. Bevrani, N. Najafi

Abstract:

This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Beta-binomial Distribution, LPLcriteria, quadratic loss function.

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2380 Variational EM Inference Algorithm for Gaussian Process Classification Model with Multiclass and Its Application to Human Action Classification

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose the variational EM inference algorithm for the multi-class Gaussian process classification model that can be used in the field of human behavior recognition. This algorithm can drive simultaneously both a posterior distribution of a latent function and estimators of hyper-parameters in a Gaussian process classification model with multiclass. Our algorithm is based on the Laplace approximation (LA) technique and variational EM framework. This is performed in two steps: called expectation and maximization steps. First, in the expectation step, using the Bayesian formula and LA technique, we derive approximately the posterior distribution of the latent function indicating the possibility that each observation belongs to a certain class in the Gaussian process classification model. Second, in the maximization step, using a derived posterior distribution of latent function, we compute the maximum likelihood estimator for hyper-parameters of a covariance matrix necessary to define prior distribution for latent function. These two steps iteratively repeat until a convergence condition satisfies. Moreover, we apply the proposed algorithm with human action classification problem using a public database, namely, the KTH human action data set. Experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm shows good performance on this data set.

Keywords: Bayesian rule, Gaussian process classification model with multiclass, Gaussian process prior, human action classification, laplace approximation, variational EM algorithm.

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2379 Approximations to the Distribution of the Sample Correlation Coefficient

Authors: John N. Haddad, Serge B. Provost

Abstract:

Given a bivariate normal sample of correlated variables, (Xi, Yi), i = 1, . . . , n, an alternative estimator of Pearson’s correlation coefficient is obtained in terms of the ranges, |Xi − Yi|. An approximate confidence interval for ρX,Y is then derived, and a simulation study reveals that the resulting coverage probabilities are in close agreement with the set confidence levels. As well, a new approximant is provided for the density function of R, the sample correlation coefficient. A mixture involving the proposed approximate density of R, denoted by hR(r), and a density function determined from a known approximation due to R. A. Fisher is shown to accurately approximate the distribution of R. Finally, nearly exact density approximants are obtained on adjusting hR(r) by a 7th degree polynomial.

Keywords: Sample correlation coefficient, density approximation, confidence intervals.

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2378 On the Parameter of the Burr Type X under Bayesian Principles

Authors: T. N. Sindhu, M. Aslam

Abstract:

A comprehensive Bayesian analysis has been carried out in the context of informative and non-informative priors for the shape parameter of the Burr type X distribution under different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions. Elicitation of hyperparameter through prior predictive approach is also discussed. Also we derive the expression for posterior predictive distributions, predictive intervals and the credible Intervals. As an illustration, comparisons of these estimators are made through simulation study.

Keywords: Credible Intervals, Loss Functions, Posterior Predictive Distributions, Predictive Intervals.

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2377 Bayesian Online Learning of Corresponding Points of Objects with Sequential Monte Carlo

Authors: Miika Toivanen, Jouko Lampinen

Abstract:

This paper presents an online method that learns the corresponding points of an object from un-annotated grayscale images containing instances of the object. In the first image being processed, an ensemble of node points is automatically selected which is matched in the subsequent images. A Bayesian posterior distribution for the locations of the nodes in the images is formed. The likelihood is formed from Gabor responses and the prior assumes the mean shape of the node ensemble to be similar in a translation and scale free space. An association model is applied for separating the object nodes and background nodes. The posterior distribution is sampled with Sequential Monte Carlo method. The matched object nodes are inferred to be the corresponding points of the object instances. The results show that our system matches the object nodes as accurately as other methods that train the model with annotated training images.

Keywords: Bayesian modeling, Gabor filters, Online learning, Sequential Monte Carlo.

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2376 Computer Modeling of Drug Distribution after Intravitreal Administration

Authors: N. Haghjou, M. J. Abdekhodaie, Y. L. Cheng, M. Saadatmand

Abstract:

Intravitreal injection (IVI) is the most common treatment for eye posterior segment diseases such as endopthalmitis, retinitis, age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, uveitis, and retinal detachment. Most of the drugs used to treat vitreoretinal diseases, have a narrow concentration range in which they are effective, and may be toxic at higher concentrations. Therefore, it is critical to know the drug distribution within the eye following intravitreal injection. Having knowledge of drug distribution, ophthalmologists can decide on drug injection frequency while minimizing damage to tissues. The goal of this study was to develop a computer model to predict intraocular concentrations and pharmacokinetics of intravitreally injected drugs. A finite volume model was created to predict distribution of two drugs with different physiochemical properties in the rabbit eye. The model parameters were obtained from literature review. To validate this numeric model, the in vivo data of spatial concentration profile from the lens to the retina were compared with the numeric data. The difference was less than 5% between the numerical and experimental data. This validation provides strong support for the numerical methodology and associated assumptions of the current study.

Keywords: Posterior segment, Intravitreal injection (IVI), Pharmacokinetic, Modelling, Finite volume method.

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2375 Loss Analysis by Loading Conditions of Distribution Transformers

Authors: A. Bozkurt, C. Kocatepe, R. Yumurtaci, İ. C. Tastan, G. Tulun

Abstract:

Efficient use of energy, the increase in demand of energy and also with the reduction of natural energy sources, has improved its importance in recent years. Most of the losses in the system from electricity produced until the point of consumption is mostly composed by the energy distribution system. In this study, analysis of the resulting loss in power distribution transformer and distribution power cable is realized which are most of the losses in the distribution system. Transformer losses in the real distribution system are analyzed by CYME Power Engineering Software program. These losses are disclosed for different voltage levels and different loading conditions.

Keywords: Distribution system, distribution transformer, power cable, technical losses.

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2374 FEM Models of Glued Laminated Timber Beams Enhanced by Bayesian Updating of Elastic Moduli

Authors: L. Melzerová, T. Janda, M. Šejnoha, J. Šejnoha

Abstract:

Two finite element (FEM) models are presented in this paper to address the random nature of the response of glued timber structures made of wood segments with variable elastic moduli evaluated from 3600 indentation measurements. This total database served to create the same number of ensembles as was the number of segments in the tested beam. Statistics of these ensembles were then assigned to given segments of beams and the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was called to perform 100 simulations resulting into the ensemble of 100 deflections subjected to statistical evaluation. Here, a detailed geometrical arrangement of individual segments in the laminated beam was considered in the construction of two-dimensional FEM model subjected to in fourpoint bending to comply with the laboratory tests. Since laboratory measurements of local elastic moduli may in general suffer from a significant experimental error, it appears advantageous to exploit the full scale measurements of timber beams, i.e. deflections, to improve their prior distributions with the help of the Bayesian statistical method. This, however, requires an efficient computational model when simulating the laboratory tests numerically. To this end, a simplified model based on Mindlin’s beam theory was established. The improved posterior distributions show that the most significant change of the Young’s modulus distribution takes place in laminae in the most strained zones, i.e. in the top and bottom layers within the beam center region. Posterior distributions of moduli of elasticity were subsequently utilized in the 2D FEM model and compared with the original simulations.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, FEM, four point bending test, laminated timber, parameter estimation, prior and posterior distribution, Young’s modulus.

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2373 The Possibility Distribution for the Controlled Bloodstream Concentrations of Any Physiologically Active Substance

Authors: Arkady Bolotin

Abstract:

In many ways, biomedical analysis is analogous to possibilistic reasoning. In spite of that, there are hardly any applications of possibility theory in biology or medicine. The aim of this work is to demonstrate the use of possibility theory in an epidemiological study. In the paper, we build the possibility distribution for the controlled bloodstream concentrations of any physiologically active substance through few approximate considerations. This possibility distribution is tested later against the empirical histograms obtained from the panel study of the eight different physiologically active substances in 417 individuals.

Keywords: Possibility distributions, physiologically activesubstances, bloodstream concentrations.

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2372 Reliability Evaluation of Distribution System Considering Distributed Generation

Authors: Raju Kaduru, Narsaiah Srinivas Gondlala

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical approach for evaluating distribution system reliability indices in the presence of distributed generation. Modeling distributed generation and evaluation of distribution system reliability indices using the frequency duration technique. Using model implements and case studies are discussed. Results showed that location of DG and its effect in distribution reliability indices. In this respect, impact of DG on distribution system is investigated using the IEEE Roy Billinton test system (RBTS2) included feeder 1. Therefore, it will help to the distribution system planners in the DG resource placement.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, DG Location, Distribution System, Reliability Indices.

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2371 Exponentiated Transmuted Weibull Distribution A Generalization of the Weibull Distribution

Authors: Abd El Hady N. Ebraheim

Abstract:

This paper introduces a new generalization of the two parameter Weibull distribution. To this end, the quadratic rank transmutation map has been used. This new distribution is named exponentiated transmuted Weibull (ETW) distribution. The ETW distribution has the advantage of being capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure criteria. Furthermore, eleven lifetime distributions such as the Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions, among others follow as special cases. The properties of the new model are discussed and the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters. Explicit expressions are derived for the quantiles. The moments of the distribution are derived, and the order statistics are examined.

Keywords: Exponentiated, Inversion Method, Maximum Likelihood Estimation, Transmutation Map.

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2370 The Performance of Predictive Classification Using Empirical Bayes

Authors: N. Deetae, S. Sukparungsee, Y. Areepong, K. Jampachaisri

Abstract:

This research is aimed to compare the percentages of correct classification of Empirical Bayes method (EB) to Classical method when data are constructed as near normal, short-tailed and long-tailed symmetric, short-tailed and long-tailed asymmetric. The study is performed using conjugate prior, normal distribution with known mean and unknown variance. The estimated hyper-parameters obtained from EB method are replaced in the posterior predictive probability and used to predict new observations. Data are generated, consisting of training set and test set with the sample sizes 100, 200 and 500 for the binary classification. The results showed that EB method exhibited an improved performance over Classical method in all situations under study.

Keywords: Classification, Empirical Bayes, Posterior predictive probability.

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2369 Efficient Design of Distribution Logistics by Using a Model-Based Decision Support System

Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

Abstract:

The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: Decision support system distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management.

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2368 Design of Distribution Network for Gas Cylinders in Jordan

Authors: Hazem J. Smadi

Abstract:

Performance of a supply chain is directly related to a distribution network that entails the location of storing materials or products and how products are delivered to the end customer through different stages in the supply chain. This study analyses the current distribution network used for delivering gas cylinders to end customer in Jordan. Evaluation of current distribution has been conducted across customer service components. A modification on the current distribution network in terms of central warehousing in each city in the country improves the response time and customer experience. 

Keywords: Distribution network, gas cylinder, Jordan, supply chain.

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2367 A New Distribution and Application on the Lifetime Data

Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

Abstract:

We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study. 

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood.

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2366 Minimization of Power Loss in Distribution Networks by Different Techniques

Authors: L.Ramesh, S.P.Chowdhury, S.Chowdhury, A.A.Natarajan, C.T.Gaunt

Abstract:

Accurate loss minimization is the critical component for efficient electrical distribution power flow .The contribution of this work presents loss minimization in power distribution system through feeder restructuring, incorporating DG and placement of capacitor. The study of this work was conducted on IEEE distribution network and India Electricity Board benchmark distribution system. The executed experimental result of Indian system is recommended to board and implement practically for regulated stable output.

Keywords: Distribution system, Distributed Generation LossMinimization, Network Restructuring

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2365 A Note on Negative Hypergeometric Distribution and Its Approximation

Authors: S. B. Mansuri

Abstract:

In this paper, at first we explain about negative hypergeometric distribution and its properties. Then we use the w-function and the Stein identity to give a result on the poisson approximation to the negative hypergeometric distribution in terms of the total variation distance between the negative hypergeometric and poisson distributions and its upper bound.

Keywords: Negative hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution, Poisson approximation, Stein-Chen identity, w-function.

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2364 Applications of Stable Distributions in Time Series Analysis, Computer Sciences and Financial Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ali Baradaran Ghahfarokhi, Parvin Baradaran Ghahfarokhi

Abstract:

In this paper, first we introduce the stable distribution, stable process and theirs characteristics. The a -stable distribution family has received great interest in the last decade due to its success in modeling data, which are too impulsive to be accommodated by the Gaussian distribution. In the second part, we propose major applications of alpha stable distribution in telecommunication, computer science such as network delays and signal processing and financial markets. At the end, we focus on using stable distribution to estimate measure of risk in stock markets and show simulated data with statistical softwares.

Keywords: stable distribution, SaS, infinite variance, heavy tail networks, VaR.

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2363 The Current Situation of Ang Thong Province’s Court Doll Distribution

Authors: P. Waiyawuththanapoom

Abstract:

This research is objected to study the pattern and channel of distribution of Ang Thong’s court doll OTOP product and try to develop the quality of distribution of the court doll product. The population of this research is 50 court doll manufacturers of Ang Thong’s court doll. The data and information was collected by using the questionnaire and use percentage, mean and standard deviation as an analysis tools. The distribution channel of Ang Thong’s court doll can be separated into 3 channels which are direct distribution from the manufacturer, via the middleman and via the co-operated manufacturing group. In the direct distribution from the manufacturer channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to how they keep the inventory. In the distribution via the middleman channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the distribution efficiency. But in the distribution via the co-operated manufacturing group, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the public relationship.

Keywords: Distribution, Court Doll, Ang Thong Province.

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2362 Approximate Range-Sum Queries over Data Cubes Using Cosine Transform

Authors: Wen-Chi Hou, Cheng Luo, Zhewei Jiang, Feng Yan

Abstract:

In this research, we propose to use the discrete cosine transform to approximate the cumulative distributions of data cube cells- values. The cosine transform is known to have a good energy compaction property and thus can approximate data distribution functions easily with small number of coefficients. The derived estimator is accurate and easy to update. We perform experiments to compare its performance with a well-known technique - the (Haar) wavelet. The experimental results show that the cosine transform performs much better than the wavelet in estimation accuracy, speed, space efficiency, and update easiness.

Keywords: DCT, Data Cube

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2361 Technique for Voltage Control in Distribution System

Authors: S. Thongkeaw, M. Boonthienthong

Abstract:

This paper presents the techniques for voltage control in distribution system. It is integrated in the distribution management system. Voltage is an important parameter for the control of electrical power systems. The distribution network operators have the responsibility to regulate the voltage supplied to consumer within statutory limits. Traditionally, the On-Load Tap Changer (OLTC) transformer equipped with automatic voltage control (AVC) relays is the most popular and effective voltage control device. A static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) may be equipped with several controllers to perform multiple control functions. Static Var Compensation (SVC) is regulation slopes and available margins for var dispatch. The voltage control in distribution networks is established as a centralized analytical function in this paper. 

Keywords: Voltage Control, Reactive Power, Distribution System.

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2360 Landslide and Debris Flow Characteristics during Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

Authors: C. Y. Chen

Abstract:

As the global climate changes, the threat from landslides and debris flows increases. Learning how a watershed initiates landslides under abnormal rainfall conditions and predicting landslide magnitude and frequency distribution is thus important. Landslides show a power-law distribution in the frequency-area distribution. The distribution curve shows an exponent gradient 1.0 in the Sandpile model test. Will the landslide frequency-area statistics show a distribution similar to the Sandpile model under extreme rainfall conditions? The purpose of the study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan. Results of the analysis show that a lower gradient of landslide frequency-area distribution could be attributed to the transportation and deposition of debris flow areas that are included in the landslide area.

Keywords: Landslide, power-law distribution, GIS.

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2359 Techniques for Reliability Evaluation in Distribution System Planning

Authors: T. Lantharthong, N. Phanthuna

Abstract:

This paper presents reliability evaluation techniques which are applied in distribution system planning studies and operation. Reliability of distribution systems is an important issue in power engineering for both utilities and customers. Reliability is a key issue in the design and operation of electric power distribution systems and load. Reliability evaluation of distribution systems has been the subject of many recent papers and the modeling and evaluation techniques have improved considerably.

Keywords: Reliability Evaluation, Optimization Technique, Reliability Indices

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2358 Reliability Improvement with Optimal Placement of Distributed Generation in Distribution System

Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, T. Langtharthong

Abstract:

This paper presents the optimal placement and sizing of distributed generation (DG) in a distribution system. The problem is to reliability improvement of distribution system with distributed generations. The technique employed to solve the minimization problem is based on a developed Tabu search algorithm and reliability worth analysis. The developed methodology is tested with a distribution system of Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) bus 2. It can be seen from the case study that distributed generation can reduce the customer interruption cost and therefore improve the reliability of the system. It is expected that our proposed method will be utilized effectively for distribution system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation Optimization technique Reliability improvement, Distribution system.

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2357 VoIP Source Model based on the Hyperexponential Distribution

Authors: Arkadiusz Biernacki

Abstract:

In this paper we present a statistical analysis of Voice over IP (VoIP) packet streams produced by the G.711 voice coder with voice activity detection (VAD). During telephone conversation, depending whether the interlocutor speaks (ON) or remains silent (OFF), packets are produced or not by a voice coder. As index of dispersion for both ON and OFF times distribution was greater than one, we used hyperexponential distribution for approximation of streams duration. For each stage of the hyperexponential distribution, we tested goodness of our fits using graphical methods, we calculated estimation errors, and performed Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Obtained results showed that the precise VoIP source model can be based on the five-state Markov process.

Keywords: VoIP source modelling, distribution approximation, hyperexponential distribution.

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2356 Derivation of Monotone Likelihood Ratio Using Two Sided Uniformly Normal Distribution Techniques

Authors: D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

In this paper, two-sided uniformly normal distribution techniques were used in the derivation of monotone likelihood ratio. The approach mainly employed the parameters of the distribution for a class of all size a. The derivation technique is fast, direct and less burdensome when compared to some existing methods.

Keywords: Neyman-Pearson Lemma, Normal distribution

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