Search results for: Mutation operator
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 320

Search results for: Mutation operator

140 Using Gaussian Process in Wind Power Forecasting

Authors: Hacene Benkhoula, Mohamed Badreddine Benabdella, Hamid Bouzeboudja, Abderrahmane Asraoui

Abstract:

The wind is a random variable difficult to master, for this, we developed a mathematical and statistical methods enable to modeling and forecast wind power. Gaussian Processes (GP) is one of the most widely used families of stochastic processes for modeling dependent data observed over time, or space or time and space. GP is an underlying process formed by unrecognized operator’s uses to solve a problem. The purpose of this paper is to present how to forecast wind power by using the GP. The Gaussian process method for forecasting are presented. To validate the presented approach, a simulation under the MATLAB environment has been given.

Keywords: Forecasting, Gaussian process, modeling, wind power.

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139 Reliability Improvement with Optimal Placement of Distributed Generation in Distribution System

Authors: N. Rugthaicharoencheep, T. Langtharthong

Abstract:

This paper presents the optimal placement and sizing of distributed generation (DG) in a distribution system. The problem is to reliability improvement of distribution system with distributed generations. The technique employed to solve the minimization problem is based on a developed Tabu search algorithm and reliability worth analysis. The developed methodology is tested with a distribution system of Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) bus 2. It can be seen from the case study that distributed generation can reduce the customer interruption cost and therefore improve the reliability of the system. It is expected that our proposed method will be utilized effectively for distribution system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation Optimization technique Reliability improvement, Distribution system.

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138 Multiobjective Optimal Power Flow Using Hybrid Evolutionary Algorithm

Authors: Alawode Kehinde O., Jubril Abimbola M. Komolafe Olusola A.

Abstract:

This paper solves the environmental/ economic dispatch power system problem using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) and its hybrid with a Convergence Accelerator Operator (CAO), called the NSGA-II/CAO. These multiobjective evolutionary algorithms were applied to the standard IEEE 30-bus six-generator test system. Several optimization runs were carried out on different cases of problem complexity. Different quality measure which compare the performance of the two solution techniques were considered. The results demonstrated that the inclusion of the CAO in the original NSGA-II improves its convergence while preserving the diversity properties of the solution set.

Keywords: optimal power flow, multiobjective power dispatch, evolutionary algorithm

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137 Comparison of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Automatic Classification of 80 Different Pollen Species

Authors: Endrick Barnacin, Jean-Luc Henry, Jimmy Nagau, Jack Molinié

Abstract:

Palynology is a field of interest in many disciplines due to its multiple applications: chronological dating, climatology, allergy treatment, and honey characterization. Unfortunately, the analysis of a pollen slide is a complicated and time consuming task that requires the intervention of experts in the field, which are becoming increasingly rare due to economic and social conditions. In this context, the automation of this task is urgent. In this work, we compare classical feature extraction methods (Shape, GLCM, LBP, and others) and Deep Learning (CNN and Transfer Learning) to perform a recognition task over 80 regional pollen species. It has been found that the use of Transfer Learning seems to be more precise than the other approaches.

Keywords: Image segmentation, stuck particles separation, Sobel operator, thresholding.

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136 Graves’ Disease and Its Related Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms and Genes

Authors: Yuhong Lu

Abstract:

Graves’ Disease (GD), an autoimmune health condition caused by the over reactiveness of the thyroid, affects about 1 in 200 people worldwide. GD is not caused by one specific single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) or gene mutation, but rather determined by multiple factors, each differing from each other. Malfunction of the genes in Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) family tend to play a major role in autoimmune diseases, but other genes, such as LOC101929163, have functions that still remain ambiguous. Currently, little studies were done to study GD, resulting in inconclusive results. This study serves not only to introduce background knowledge about GD, but also to organize and pinpoint the major SNPs and genes that are potentially related to the occurrence of GD in humans. Collected from multiple sources from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) Central, the potential SNPs related to the causes of GD are included in this study. This study has located the genes that are related to those SNPs and closely examines a selected sample. Using the data from this study, scientists will then be able to focus on the most expressed genes in GD patients and develop a treatment for GD.

Keywords: CTLA4, Graves’ Disease, HLA, single nucleotide polymorphism, SNP.

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135 Angle of Arrival Detection with Fifth Order Phase Operators

Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi

Abstract:

In this paper, a fifth order propagator operators are proposed for estimating the Angles Of Arrival (AOA) of narrowband electromagnetic waves impinging on antenna array when its number of sensors is larger than the number of radiating sources.

The array response matrix is partitioned into five linearly dependent phases to construct the noise projector using five different propagators from non diagonal blocks of the spectral matrice of the received data; hence, five different estimators are proposed to estimate the angles of the sources. The simulation results proved the performance of the proposed estimators in the presence of white noise comparatively to high resolution eigen based spectra.

Keywords: DOA, narrowband, antenna, propagator, high resolution. Array, operator, angular, spectrum, goniometry.

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134 Existence and Uniqueness of Positive Solution for Nonlinear Fractional Differential Equation with Integral Boundary Conditions

Authors: Chuanyun Gu

Abstract:

By using fixed point theorems for a class of generalized concave and convex operators, the positive solution of nonlinear fractional differential equation with integral boundary conditions is studied, where n ≥ 3 is an integer, μ is a parameter and 0 ≤ μ < α. Its existence and uniqueness is proved, and an iterative scheme is constructed to approximate it. Finally, two examples are given to illustrate our results.

Keywords: Fractional differential equation, positive solution, existence and uniqueness, fixed point theorem, generalized concave and convex operator, integral boundary conditions.

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133 Creating or Destroying Objects Plan in the Graphplan Framework

Authors: Wen-xiang Gu, Zeng-yu Cai, Xin-mei Zhang, Gui-dong Jiang

Abstract:

At present, intelligent planning in the Graphplan framework is a focus of artificial intelligence. While the Creating or Destroying Objects Planning (CDOP) is one unsolved problem of this field, one of the difficulties, too. In this paper, we study this planning problem and bring forward the idea of transforming objects to propositions, based on which we offer an algorithm, Creating or Destroying Objects in the Graphplan framework (CDOGP). Compared to Graphplan, the new algorithm can solve not only the entire problems that Graphplan do, but also a part of CDOP. It is for the first time that we introduce the idea of object-proposition, and we emphasize the discussion on the representations of creating or destroying objects operator and an algorithm in the Graphplan framework. In addition, we analyze the complexity of this algorithm.

Keywords: Graphplan, object_proposition, Creating or destroying objects, CDOGP.

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132 A Feasibility-study of a Micro- Communications Sonobuoy Deployable by UAV Robots

Authors: B. Munro, D. Lim, A. Anvar

Abstract:

This paper describes a feasibility study that is included with the research, development and testing of a micro communications sonobuoy deployable by Maritime Fixed wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (M-UAV) and rotor wing Quad Copters which are both currently being developed by the University of Adelaide. The micro communications sonobuoy is developed to act as a seamless communication relay between an Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) and an above water human operator some distance away. Development of such a device would eliminate the requirement of physical communication tethers attached to submersible vehicles for control and data retrieval.

Keywords: Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, AUV, Maritime, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, UAV, Micro Sonobuoy, Communication.

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131 The Influence of the Commons Structure Modification on the Active Power Losses Allocation

Authors: O. Pop, C. Barbulescu, M. Nemes, St. Kilyeni

Abstract:

The tracing methods determine the contribution the power system sources have in their supplying. These methods can be used to assess the transmission prices, but also to recover the transmission fixed cost. In this paper is presented the influence of the modification of commons structure has on the specific price of transfer and on active power losses. The authors propose a power losses allocation method, based on Kirschen-s method. The system operator must make use of a few basic principles about allocation. The only necessary information is the power flows on system branches and the modifications applied to power system buses. In order to illustrate this method, the 25-bus test system is used, elaborated within the Electrical Power Engineering Department, from Timisoara, Romania.

Keywords: Power systems, P-U bus, P-Q bus, loss allocation, traceability methods.

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130 Service Architecture for 3rd Party Operator's Participation

Authors: F. Sarabchi, A. H. Darvishan, H. Yeganeh, H. Ahmadian

Abstract:

Next generation networks with the idea of convergence of service and control layer in existing networks (fixed, mobile and data) and with the intention of providing services in an integrated network, has opened new horizon for telecom operators. On the other hand, economic problems have caused operators to look for new source of income including consider new services, subscription of more users and their promotion in using morenetwork resources and easy participation of service providers or 3rd party operators in utilizing networks. With this requirement, an architecture based on next generation objectives for service layer is necessary. In this paper, a new architecture based on IMS model explains participation of 3rd party operators in creation and implementation of services on an integrated telecom network.

Keywords: Service model, IMS, API, Scripting language, JAIN, Parlay.

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129 LumaCert: Conception and Creation of New Digital Certificate for Online User Authentication in e-Banking Systems

Authors: Artan Luma, Betim Prevalla, Besart Qoku, Bujar Raufi

Abstract:

Electronic banking must be secure and easy to use and many banks heavily advertise an apparent of 100% secure system which is contestable in many points. In this work, an alternative approach to the design of e-banking system, through a new solution for user authentication and security with digital certificate called LumaCert is introduced. The certificate applies new algorithm for asymmetric encryption by utilizing two mathematical operators called Pentors and UltraPentors. The public and private key in this algorithm represent a quadruple of parameters which are directly dependent from the above mentioned operators. The strength of the algorithm resides in the inability to find the respective Pentor and UltraPentor operator from the mentioned parameters.

Keywords: Security, Digital Certificate, Cryptography.

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128 Angles of Arrival Estimation with Unitary Partial Propagator

Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigated the effect of real valued transformation of the spectral matrix of the received data for Angles Of Arrival estimation problem.  Indeed, the unitary transformation of Partial Propagator (UPP) for narrowband sources is proposed and applied on Uniform Linear Array (ULA).

Monte Carlo simulations proved the performance of the UPP spectrum comparatively with Forward Backward Partial Propagator (FBPP) and Unitary Propagator (UP). The results demonstrates that when some of the sources are fully correlated and closer than the Rayleigh angular limit resolution of the broadside array, the UPP method outperforms the FBPP in both of spatial resolution and complexity.

Keywords: DOA, Uniform Linear Array, Narrowband, Propagator, Real valued transformation, Subspace, Unitary Operator.

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127 Effect of DG Installation in Distribution System for Voltage Monitoring Scheme

Authors: S. R. A. Rahim, I. Musirin, M. M. Othman, M. H. Hussain

Abstract:

Loss minimization is a long progressing issue mainly in distribution system. Nevertheless its effect led to temperature rise due to significant voltage drop through the distribution line. Thus, compensation scheme should be proper scheduled in the attempt to alleviate the voltage drop phenomenon. Distributed generation has been profoundly known for voltage profile improvement; provided that over-compensation or under-compensation phenomena are avoided. This paper addresses the issue of voltage improvement through different type DG installation. In ensuring optimal sizing and location of the DGs, pre-developed EMEFA technique was made use for this purpose. Incremental loading condition subjected to the system is the concern such that it is beneficial to the power system operator.

Keywords: Distributed generation, EMEFA, power loss, voltage profile.

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126 Improved Asymptotic Stability Analysis for Lure Systems with Neutral Type and Time-varying Delays

Authors: Changchun Shen, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

This paper investigates the problem of absolute stability and robust stability of a class of Lur-e systems with neutral type and time-varying delays. By using Lyapunov direct method and linear matrix inequality technique, new delay-dependent stability criteria are obtained and formulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) which are easy to check the stability of the considered systems. To obtain less conservative stability conditions, an operator is defined to construct the Lyapunov functional. Also, the free weighting matrices approach combining a matrix inequality technique is used to reduce the entailed conservativeness. Numerical examples are given to indicate significant improvements over some existing results.

Keywords: Lur'e system, linear matrix inequalities, Lyapunov, stability.

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125 Extraction of Knowledge Complexity in 3G Killer Application Construction for Telecommunications National Strategy

Authors: Muhammad Suryanegara, Dendi Wijayatullah, Dadang Gunawan

Abstract:

We review a knowledge extractor model in constructing 3G Killer Applications. The success of 3G is essential for Government as it became part of Telecommunications National Strategy. The 3G wireless technologies may reach larger area and increase country-s ICT penetration. In order to understand future customers needs, the operators require proper information (knowledge) lying inside. Our work approached future customers as complex system where the complex knowledge may expose regular behavior. The hidden information from 3G future customers is revealed by using fractal-based questionnaires. Afterward, further statistical analysis is used to match the results with operator-s strategic plan. The developments of 3G applications also consider its saturation time and further improvement of the application.

Keywords: 3G Killer Applications, Knowledge, Telecommunications Strategy.

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124 Definable Subsets in Covering Approximation Spaces

Authors: Xun Ge, Zhaowen Li

Abstract:

Covering approximation spaces is a class of important generalization of approximation spaces. For a subset X of a covering approximation space (U, C), is X definable or rough? The answer of this question is uncertain, which depends on covering approximation operators endowed on (U, C). Note that there are many various covering approximation operators, which can be endowed on covering approximation spaces. This paper investigates covering approximation spaces endowed ten covering approximation operators respectively, and establishes some relations among definable subsets, inner definable subsets and outer definable subsets in covering approximation spaces, which deepens some results on definable subsets in approximation spaces.

Keywords: Covering approximation space, covering approximation operator, definable subset, inner definable subset, outer definable subset.

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123 Evolutionary Algorithm Based Centralized Congestion Management for Multilateral Transactions

Authors: T. Mathumathi, S. Ganesh, R. Gunabalan

Abstract:

This work presents an approach for AC load flow based centralized model for congestion management in the forward markets. In this model, transaction maximizes its profit under the limits of transmission line capacities allocated by Independent System Operator (ISO). The voltage and reactive power impact of the system are also incorporated in this model. Genetic algorithm is used to solve centralized congestion management problem for multilateral transactions. Results obtained for centralized model using genetic algorithm is compared with Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) technique. The statistical performances of various algorithms such as best, worst, mean and standard deviations of social welfare are given. Simulation results clearly demonstrate the better performance of genetic algorithm over SQP.

Keywords: Congestion management, Genetic algorithm, Sequential quadratic programming.

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122 Representing Uncertainty in Computer-Generated Forces

Authors: Ruibiao J. Guo, Brad Cain, Pierre Meunier

Abstract:

The Integrated Performance Modelling Environment (IPME) is a powerful simulation engine for task simulation and performance analysis. However, it has no high level cognition such as memory and reasoning for complex simulation. This article introduces a knowledge representation and reasoning scheme that can accommodate uncertainty in simulations of military personnel with IPME. This approach demonstrates how advanced reasoning models that support similarity-based associative process, rule-based abstract process, multiple reasoning methods and real-time interaction can be integrated with conventional task network modelling to provide greater functionality and flexibility when modelling operator performance.

Keywords: Computer-Generated Forces, Human Behaviour Representation, IPME, Modelling and Simulation, Uncertainty Reasoning

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121 Exact Pfaffian and N-Soliton Solutions to a (3+1)-Dimensional Generalized Integrable Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations

Authors: Magdy G. Asaad

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to use the Pfaffian technique to construct different classes of exact Pfaffian solutions and N-soliton solutions to some of the generalized integrable nonlinear partial differential equations in (3+1) dimensions. In this paper, I will show that the Pfaffian solutions to the nonlinear PDEs are nothing but Pfaffian identities. Solitons are among the most beneficial solutions for science and technology, from ocean waves to transmission of information through optical fibers or energy transport along protein molecules. The existence of multi-solitons, especially three-soliton solutions, is essential for information technology: it makes possible undisturbed simultaneous propagation of many pulses in both directions.

Keywords: Bilinear operator, G-BKP equation, Integrable nonlinear PDEs, Jimbo-Miwa equation, Ma-Fan equation, N-soliton solutions, Pfaffian solutions.

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120 Determination of Non Uniform Sinusoidal Microstrip Leaky-Wave Antenna Radiating Performances in Millimeter Band

Authors: Zahéra Mekkioui

Abstract:

Here we have considered non uniform microstrip leaky-wave antenna implemented on a dielectric waveguide by a sinusoidal profile of periodic metallic grating. The non distribution of the attenuation constant α along propagation axis, optimize the radiating characteristics and performances of such antennas. The method developped here is based on an integral method where the formalism of the admittance operator is combined to a BKW approximation. First, the effect of the modeling in the modal analysis of complex waves is studied in detail. Then, the BKW model is used for the dispersion analysis of the antenna of interest. According to antenna theory, a forced continuity of the leaky-wave magnitude at discontinuities of the non uniform structure is established. To test the validity of our dispersion analysis, computed radiation patterns are presented and compared in the millimeter band.

Keywords: antenna, leaky-wave, performances, sinusoidal.

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119 Using Vulnerability to Reduce False Positive Rate in Intrusion Detection Systems

Authors: Nadjah Chergui, Narhimene Boustia

Abstract:

Intrusion Detection Systems are an essential tool for network security infrastructure. However, IDSs have a serious problem which is the generating of massive number of alerts, most of them are false positive ones which can hide true alerts and make the analyst confused to analyze the right alerts for report the true attacks. The purpose behind this paper is to present a formalism model to perform correlation engine by the reduction of false positive alerts basing on vulnerability contextual information. For that, we propose a formalism model based on non-monotonic JClassicδє description logic augmented with a default (δ) and an exception (є) operator that allows a dynamic inference according to contextual information.

Keywords: Context, exception, default, IDS, Non-monotonic Description Logic JClassicδє, vulnerability.

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118 Two Points Crossover Genetic Algorithm for Loop Layout Design Problem

Authors: Xu LiYun, Briand Florent, Fan GuoLiang

Abstract:

The loop-layout design problem (LLDP) aims at optimizing the sequence of positioning of the machines around the cyclic production line. Traffic congestion is the usual criteria to minimize in this type of problem, i.e. the number of additional cycles spent by each part in the network until the completion of its required routing sequence of machines. This paper aims at applying several improvements mechanisms such as a positioned-based crossover operator for the Genetic Algorithm (GA) called a Two Points Crossover (TPC) and an offspring selection process. The performance of the improved GA is measured using well-known examples from literature and compared to other evolutionary algorithms. Good results show that GA can still be competitive for this type of problem against more recent evolutionary algorithms.

Keywords: Crossover, genetic algorithm, layout design problem, loop-layout, manufacturing optimization.

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117 MIOM: A Mixed-Initiative Operational Model for Robots in Urban Search and Rescue

Authors: Mario Gianni, Federico Nardi, Federico Ferri, Filippo Cantucci, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Karthik Pushparaj, Fiora Pirri

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue (USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge. Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission. In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.

Keywords: Actively articulated tracked vehicles, mixed-initiative planning interfeces, robot planning, urban search and rescue.

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116 Design and Fabrication of a Column-Climber Robot (Koala Robot)

Authors: Maziar Sadeghi, Amir Moradi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a robot able to climb Columns. This robot is not dependent on the diameter and material of the columns. Some climbing robots have been designed up to now but Koala robot was designed and fabricated for climbing columns exclusively. Simple kinematics of climbing in the nature inspired us to design this robot. We used two linear mechanisms to grip the column. The gripper consists of a DC motor and a power screw mechanism with a linear bushing as a guide. This mechanism provides enough force to grip the column. In addition we needed an actuator for climbing the column; hence, two pneumatic jacks were used. All the mechanical parts were designed according to the exerted forces and operational condition. The prototype can be simply installed and controlled on the column by an inexperienced operator. This robot is intended for inspection and surveillance of pipes in oil industries and power poles in electric industries.

Keywords: Robot, Column-climber, Gripping mechanism, Koala.

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115 White Blood Cells Identification and Counting from Microscopic Blood Image

Authors: Lorenzo Putzu, Cecilia Di Ruberto

Abstract:

The counting and analysis of blood cells allows the evaluation and diagnosis of a vast number of diseases. In particular, the analysis of white blood cells (WBCs) is a topic of great interest to hematologists. Nowadays the morphological analysis of blood cells is performed manually by skilled operators. This involves numerous drawbacks, such as slowness of the analysis and a nonstandard accuracy, dependent on the operator skills. In literature there are only few examples of automated systems in order to analyze the white blood cells, most of which only partial. This paper presents a complete and fully automatic method for white blood cells identification from microscopic images. The proposed method firstly individuates white blood cells from which, subsequently, nucleus and cytoplasm are extracted. The whole work has been developed using MATLAB environment, in particular the Image Processing Toolbox.

Keywords: Automatic detection, Biomedical image processing, Segmentation, White blood cell analysis.

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114 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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113 Fabric Printing Design, an Inspired from the Five-Color Porcelain (Benjarong)

Authors: Suwit Sadsunk

Abstract:

The study is about the designed and decorative fabric printing that derived from the Five-color porcelain (Benjarong). The researcher examined the pattern and creativity of the decorative design of the Five-color porcelain (Benjarong) by the artists in order to apply for contemporary arts so that young generation will acknowledge the importance of the Five-color porcelain (Benjarong). The research methodology is both quantitative and qualitative. The researcher conducted an in-depth interview with the operator of five-color porcelain (Benjarong) at Ampawa, Samutsongkram. The information from the interview can be useful and implemented for designing the fabric patterns. The researcher found that there were many formats and designs of the Five-color porcelain (Benjarong) from the past to the present. Its unique design can be applied for the fabric patterns and ready-to-wear clothes properly. After advertising and showing the work of the Five-color porcelain (Benjarong) publicly, there were more young people interested in the Five-color porcelain (Benjarong) than expected which exceeded the objective with positive attitudes towards the Five-color porcelain (Benjarong).

Keywords: Decorative fabric printing, Five-color porcelain (Benjarong).

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112 Genetic Algorithm Parameters Optimization for Bi-Criteria Multiprocessor Task Scheduling Using Design of Experiments

Authors: Sunita Dhingra, Satinder Bal Gupta, Ranjit Biswas

Abstract:

Multiprocessor task scheduling is a NP-hard problem and Genetic Algorithm (GA) has been revealed as an excellent technique for finding an optimal solution. In the past, several methods have been considered for the solution of this problem based on GAs. But, all these methods consider single criteria and in the present work, minimization of the bi-criteria multiprocessor task scheduling problem has been considered which includes weighted sum of makespan & total completion time. Efficiency and effectiveness of genetic algorithm can be achieved by optimization of its different parameters such as crossover, mutation, crossover probability, selection function etc. The effects of GA parameters on minimization of bi-criteria fitness function and subsequent setting of parameters have been accomplished by central composite design (CCD) approach of response surface methodology (RSM) of Design of Experiments. The experiments have been performed with different levels of GA parameters and analysis of variance has been performed for significant parameters for minimisation of makespan and total completion time simultaneously.

Keywords: Multiprocessor task scheduling, Design of experiments, Genetic Algorithm, Makespan, Total completion time.

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111 Analysis on Precipitation Variation Patterns of Chenzhou City

Authors: Li Wu

Abstract:

By using linear regression methodology to analyze the data of daily precipitation from 1961-2012, this paper studied the variation tendency of precipitation in Chenzhou. The outcome showed: (1) The annual precipitation was decreasing for 52 years and the difference of precipitation variation tendency among four seasons was remarkable. The precipitation of spring and autumn showed more remarkable decrease than of summer; but the precipitation of winter significantly increased. (2) The annual precipitation frequency tended to lower, which was consistent with the tendency of yearly variation. The seasonal precipitation frequency was greatly different, namely, precipitation frequency in spring and autumn decreased, co-occurring with the phenomenon of mutation; but the winter precipitation frequency increased notably. (3) The precipitation intensity displayed a tendency of increase, including spring, autumn and winter; among them, winter had the most obvious tendency to increase, and autumn had the most yearly variation. Summer was the only season with a tendency of decreasing in precipitation intensity. (4) Annual extreme precipitation tended to reduce, spring, summer and autumn are all included; whereas, winter extreme precipitation tended to increase at the rate of 0.1d/10a. (5) The daily maximum precipitation intensity increased slightly and it varied greatly.

Keywords: Chenzhou, precipitation variation, precipitation frequency, precipitation intensity.

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