Search results for: Modal dynamic analysis

Authors: Feng Xiao, Zhou Hongyu, YuCaixia

Abstract:

Based on an analysis of the current research and application of Road maintenance, geographic information system (WebGIS) and ArcGIS Server, the platform overhead construction for Road maintenance development is studied and the key issues are presented, including the organization and design of spatial data on the basis of the geodatabase technology, middleware technology, tiles cache index technology and dynamic segmentation of WebGIS. Road maintenance geographic information platform is put forward through the researching ideas of analysis of the system design. The design and application of WebGIS system are discussed on the basis of a case study of BaNan district of Chongqing highway maintenance management .The feasibility of the theories and methods are validated through the system.

Keywords: WebGIS, Tile, Road maintenance, dynamic segmentation

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Authors: Joerg Schweizer, Jason N. Meggs, Nazanin R. Dehkordi, Frederico Rupi, Anton Pashkevich

Abstract:

We propose a low-cost uniform analysis framework allowing comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the bicycling experience within and between cities. A primary component is an expedient, one-page mobility survey from which mode share is calculated. The bicycle mode share of many cities remains unknown, creating a serious barrier for both scientists and policy makers aiming to understand and increase rates of bicycling. Because of its low cost and expedience, this framework could be replicated widely, uniformly filling the data gap. The framework has been applied to 13 Central European cities with success. Data is collected on multiple modes with specific questions regarding both behavior and quality of travel experience. Individual preferences are also collected, examining the conditions under which respondents would change behavior to adopt more sustainable modes (bicycling or public transportation). A broad analysis opportunity results, intended to inform policy choices.

Keywords: bicycling, modal splits, transport policy, surveys.

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Authors: Paulo Gomes, Adelaide Figueiredo

Abstract:

We consider n individuals described by p standardized variables, represented by points of the surface of the unit hypersphere S_n-1. For a previous choice of n individuals we suppose that the set of observables variables comes from a mixture of bipolar Watson distribution defined on the hypersphere. EM and Dynamic Clusters algorithms are used for identification of such mixture. We obtain estimates of parameters for each Watson component and then a partition of the set of variables into homogeneous groups of variables. Additionally we will present a factor analysis model where unobservable factors are just the maximum likelihood estimators of Watson directional parameters, exactly the first principal component of data matrix associated to each group previously identified. Such alternative model it will yield us to directly interpretable solutions (simple structure), avoiding factors rotations.

Keywords: Dynamic Clusters algorithm, EM algorithm, Factor analysis model, Hierarchical Clustering, Watson distribution.

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Authors: Marco Kennemann, Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

An increasingly dynamic and complex environment poses huge challenges to production enterprises, especially with regards to logistics. The Logistic Operating Curve Theory, developed at the Institute of Production Systems and Logistics (IFA) of the Leibniz University of Hanover, is a recognized approach to describing logistic interactions, nevertheless, it reaches its limits when it comes to the dynamic aspects. In order to facilitate a timely and optimal Logistic Positioning a method is developed for quickly and reliably identifying dynamic processing states.

Keywords: Dynamics, Logistic Operating Curves, Production Logistics, Production Planning and Control

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Authors: Peter Antwi Buah, Yingbin Zhang, Jianxian He, Chenlin Xiang, Delali Atsu Y. Bakah

Abstract:

Near-fault ground motions with velocity pulses are considered to cause significant damage to structures or slopes compared to ordinary ground motions without velocity pulses. The double pulsed pulse-like ground motion is well known to be stronger than the single pulse. This research has numerically justified this perspective by studying the dynamic response of a homogeneous rock slope subjected to four pulse-like and two non-pulse-like ground motions using the Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua in 3 Dimensions (FLAC3D) software. Two of the pulse-like ground motions just have a single pulse. The results show that near-fault ground motions with velocity pulses can cause a higher dynamic response than regular ground motions. The amplification of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) in horizontal direction increases with the increase of the slope elevation. The seismic response of the slope under double pulse ground motion is stronger than that of the single pulse ground motion. The PGV amplification factor under the effect of the non-pulse-like records is also smaller than those under the pulse-like records. The velocity pulse strengthens the earthquake damage to the slope, which results in producing a stronger dynamic response.

Keywords: Velocity pulses, dynamic response, PGV magnification effect, elevation effect, double pulse.

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Authors: Engin Yesil, Leon Urbas

Abstract:

Modeling of complex dynamic systems, which are very complicated to establish mathematical models, requires new and modern methodologies that will exploit the existing expert knowledge, human experience and historical data. Fuzzy cognitive maps are very suitable, simple, and powerful tools for simulation and analysis of these kinds of dynamic systems. However, human experts are subjective and can handle only relatively simple fuzzy cognitive maps; therefore, there is a need of developing new approaches for an automated generation of fuzzy cognitive maps using historical data. In this study, a new learning algorithm, which is called Big Bang-Big Crunch, is proposed for the first time in literature for an automated generation of fuzzy cognitive maps from data. Two real-world examples; namely a process control system and radiation therapy process, and one synthetic model are used to emphasize the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Big Bang-Big Crunch optimization, Dynamic Systems, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Learning.

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Authors: A. Zanj, F. He

Abstract:

In the current paper, a domain independent conduction model compatible for multi-physical system dynamic investigations is suggested. By means of a port-based approach, a classical nonlinear conduction model containing physical states is first represented. A compatible discrete configuration of the thermal domain in line with the elastic domain is then generated through the enhancement of the configuration of the conventional thermal element. The presented simulation results of a sample structure indicate that the suggested conductive model can cover a wide range of dynamic behavior of the thermal domain.

Keywords: Multi-physical domain, conduction model, port-based modeling, dynamic interaction, physical modeling.

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Authors: Xiaofei Hu, Zhiyu Cai, Weian Yao

Abstract:

V-notch problem under dynamic loading condition is considered in this paper. In the time domain, the precise time domain expanding algorithm is employed, in which a self-adaptive technique is carried out to improve computing accuracy. By expanding variables in each time interval, the recursive finite element formulas are derived. In the space domain, a Symplectic Analytical Singular Element (SASE) for V-notch problem is constructed addressing the stress singularity of the notch tip. Combining with the conventional finite elements, the proposed SASE can be used to solve the dynamic stress intensity factors (DSIFs) in a simple way. Numerical results show that the proposed SASE for V-notch problem subjected to dynamic loading condition is effective and efficient.

Keywords: V-notch, dynamic stress intensity factor, finite element method, precise time domain expanding algorithm.

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Authors: Mabel A. Leva

Abstract:

This study defines a methodology to compute unitary costs for freight transportation modes. The main objective was to gather relevant costs data to support the formulation and evaluation of railway, road, pipelines and port projects. This article will concentrate on the following steps: Compilation and analysis of relevant modal cost studies, Methodological adjustments to make cost figures comparable between studies, Definition of typology and scope of transportation modes, Analysis and validation of cost values for relevant freight transportation modes in Chile. In order to define the comparison methodology for the costs between the different transportation modes, it was necessary to consider that the relevant cost depends on who performs the comparison. Thus, for the transportation user (e.g. exporter) the pertinent costs are the mode tariffs, whereas from the operators perspective (e.g. rail manager), the pertinent costs are the operating costs of each mode.

Keywords: Intermodal costs, Logistics, Transportation costs.

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Authors: S. A. Hashemi, A. Khoshraftar

Abstract:

This paper presents the influence of the vertical seismic component on the non-linear dynamics analysis of three different structures. The subject structures were analyzed and designed according to recent codes. This paper considers three types of buildings: 5-, 10-, and 15-story buildings. The non-linear dynamics analysis of the structures with assuming elastic-perfectlyplastic behavior was performed using RAM PERFORM-3D software; the horizontal component was taken into consideration with and without the incorporation of the corresponding vertical component. Dynamic responses obtained for the horizontal component acting alone were compared with those obtained from the simultaneous application of both seismic components. The results show that the effect of the vertical component of ground motion may increase the axial load significantly in the interior columns and, consequently, the stories. The plastic mechanisms would be changed. The P-Delta effect is expected to increase. The punching base plate shear of the columns should be considered. Moreover, the vertical component increases the input energy when the structures exhibit inelastic behavior and are taller.

Keywords: Inelastic behavior, non-linear dynamic analysis, steel structure, vertical component.

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Authors: G. Tamulevičius, A. Serackis, T. Sledevič, D. Navakauskas

Abstract:

We consider the biggest challenge in speech recognition – noise reduction. Traditionally detected transient noise pulses are removed with the corrupted speech using pulse models. In this paper we propose to cope with the problem directly in Dynamic Time Warping domain. Bidirectional Dynamic Time Warping algorithm for the recognition of isolated words impacted by transient noise pulses is proposed. It uses simple transient noise pulse detector, employs bidirectional computation of dynamic time warping and directly manipulates with warping results. Experimental investigation with several alternative solutions confirms effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in the reduction of impact of noise on recognition process – 3.9% increase of the noisy speech recognition is achieved.

Keywords: Transient noise pulses, noise reduction, dynamic time warping, speech recognition.

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

Abstract:

Recurrent event data is a special type of multivariate survival data. Dynamic and frailty models are one of the approaches that dealt with this kind of data. A comparison between these two models is studied using the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes as a way of assessing the fit of the two models based on the Aalen additive regression model. Here we found both approaches took heterogeneity into account and produce residual standard deviations close to each other both in the simulation study and in the real data set.

Keywords: Dynamic, frailty, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

Abstract:

Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: Dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter.

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Authors: Debajyoti Mishra, Urmila Bhanja

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel fuzzy approach is developed while solving the Dynamic Routing and Wavelength Assignment (DRWA) problem in optical networks with Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM). In this work, the effect of nonlinear and linear impairments such as Four Wave Mixing (FWM) and amplifier spontaneous emission (ASE) noise are incorporated respectively. The novel algorithm incorporates fuzzy logic controller (FLC) to reduce the effect of FWM noise and ASE noise on a requested lightpath referred in this work as FWM aware fuzzy dynamic routing and wavelength assignment algorithm. The FWM crosstalk products and the static FWM noise power per link are pre computed in order to reduce the set up time of a requested lightpath, and stored in an offline database. These are retrieved during the setting up of a lightpath and evaluated online taking the dynamic parameters like cost of the links into consideration.

Keywords: Amplifier spontaneous emission (ASE), Dynamic routing and wavelength assignment, Four wave mixing (FWM), Fuzzy rule based system (FRBS).

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Authors: S. A. Hashemi, A. Khoshraftar

Abstract:

This paper presents the influence of the vertical seismic component on the non-linear dynamics analysis of three different structures. The subject structures were analyzed and designed according to recent codes. This paper considers three types of buildings: 5-, 10-, and 15-story buildings. The non-linear dynamics analysis of the structures with assuming elastic-perfectly-plastic behavior was performed using RAM PERFORM-3D software; the horizontal component was taken into consideration with and without the incorporation of the corresponding vertical component. Dynamic responses obtained for the horizontal component acting alone were compared with those obtained from the simultaneous application of both seismic components. The results show that the effect of the vertical component of ground motion may increase the axial load significantly in the interior columns and, consequently, the stories. The plastic mechanisms would be changed. The P-Delta effect is expected to increase. The punching base plate shear of the columns should be considered. Moreover, the vertical component increases the input energy when the structures exhibit inelastic behavior and are taller.

Keywords: Inelastic behavior, non-linear dynamic analysis, steel structure, vertical component.

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Authors: Muzaffar Bashir, Jürgen Kempf

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a Dynamic Time Warping technique which reduces significantly the data processing time and memory size of multi-dimensional time series sampled by the biometric smart pen device BiSP. The acquisition device is a novel ballpoint pen equipped with a diversity of sensors for monitoring the kinematics and dynamics of handwriting movement. The DTW algorithm has been applied for time series analysis of five different sensor channels providing pressure, acceleration and tilt data of the pen generated during handwriting on a paper pad. But the standard DTW has processing time and memory space problems which limit its practical use for online handwriting recognition. To face with this problem the DTW has been applied to the sum of the five sensor signals after an adequate down-sampling of the data. Preliminary results have shown that processing time and memory size could significantly be reduced without deterioration of performance in single character and word recognition. Further excellent accuracy in recognition was achieved which is mainly due to the reduced dynamic time warping RDTW technique and a novel pen device BiSP.

Keywords: Biometric character recognition, biometric person authentication, biometric smart pen BiSP, dynamic time warping DTW, online-handwriting recognition, multidimensional time series.

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Authors: L. Khan mohammadi, J. Vaseghi Amiri, B. Navayi neya , M. Davoodi

Abstract:

Because of the reservoir effect, dynamic analysis of concrete dams is more involved than other common structures. This problem is mostly sourced by the differences between reservoir water, dam body and foundation material behaviors. To account for the reservoir effect in dynamic analysis of concrete gravity dams, two methods are generally employed. Eulerian method in reservoir modeling gives rise to a set of coupled equations, whereas in Lagrangian method, the same equations for dam and foundation structure are used. The Purpose of this paper is to evaluate and study possible advantages and disadvantages of both methods. Specifically, application of the above methods in the analysis of dam-foundationreservoir systems is leveraged to calculate the hydrodynamic pressure on dam faces. Within the frame work of dam- foundationreservoir systems, dam displacement under earthquake for various dimensions and characteristics are also studied. The results of both Lagrangian and Eulerian methods in effects of loading frequency, boundary condition and foundation elasticity modulus are quantitatively evaluated and compared. Our analyses show that each method has individual advantages and disadvantages. As such, in any particular case, one of the two methods may prove more suitable as presented in the results section of this study.

Keywords: Lagrangian method, Eulerian method, Earthquake, Concrete gravity dam

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Authors: Faroudja Meziani, Amar Kahil

Abstract:

In order to study the variation in settlement of soil under a dyke dam, the modelisation in our study consists of applying an imposed displacement at the base of the mass of soil (consisting of a saturated sand). The imposed displacement follows the evolution of acceleration of the earthquake of Boumerdes 2003 in Algeria. Moreover, the gravity load is taken into consideration by taking account the specific weight of the materials constituting the dyke. The results obtained show that the gravity loads have a direct influence on the evolution of settlement, especially at the center of the dyke where these loads are higher.

Keywords: Settlement, dynamic analysis, rockfill dam, effect of earthquake, soil dynamics.

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Authors: M. Najafi

Abstract:

In the present paper, a large turbo-generator shaft train including a heavy-duty gas turbine engine, a coupling, and a generator is established. The method of analysis is based on finite element simplified model for lateral and torsional vibration calculation. The basic elements of rotor are the shafts and the disks which are represented as circular cross section flexible beams and rigid body elements, respectively. For more accurate results, the gyroscopic effect and bearing dynamics coefficients and function of rotation are taken into account, and for the influence of shear effect, rotor has been modeled in the form of Timoshenko beam. Lateral critical speeds, critical speed map, damped mode shapes, Campbell diagram, zones of instability, amplitudes, phase angles response due to synchronous forces of excitation and amplification factor are calculated. Also, in the present paper, the effect of imbalanced rotor and effects of changing in internal force and temperature are studied.

Keywords: Rotor dynamic analysis, Finite element method, shaft train, Campbell diagram.

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Authors: Tawiwat V., Phermsak S., Noppasit C.

Abstract:

This paper deals with under actuator dynamic systems such as spring-mass-damper system when the number of control variable is less than the number of state variable. In order to apply optimal control, the controllability must be checked. There are many objective functions to be selected as the goal of the optimal control such as minimum energy, maximum energy and minimum jerk. As the objective function is the first priority, if one like to have the second goal to be applied; however, it could not fit in the objective function format and also avoiding the vector cost for the objective, this paper will illustrate the problem of under actuator dynamic systems with the easiest to deal with comparing between minimum energy and minimum jerk.

Keywords: Under actuator, Dynamic optimal control, Minimumjerk, Minimum energy.

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Authors: Benedetto Manganelli, Beniamino Murgante

Abstract:

The use of statistical data and of the neural networks, capable of elaborate a series of data and territorial info, have allowed the making of a model useful in the subdivision of urban places into homogeneous zone under the profile of a social, real estate, environmental and urbanist background of a city. The development of homogeneous zone has fiscal and urbanist advantages. The tools in the model proposed, able to be adapted to the dynamic changes of the city, allow the application of the zoning fast and dynamic.

Keywords: Homogeneous Urban Areas, Multidimensional Scaling, Neural Network, Real Estate Market, Urban Planning.

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Authors: M. Baryshev, D.Vainauska, S. Kozireva, A.Karpovs

Abstract:

Liposomal magnetofection is the most powerful nonviral method for the nucleic acid delivery into the cultured cancer cells and widely used for in vitro applications. Use of the static magnetic field condition may result in non-uniform distribution of aggregate complexes on the surface of cultured cells. To prevent this, we developed the new device which allows to concentrate aggregate complexes under dynamic magnetic field, assisting more contact of these complexes with cellular membrane and, possibly, stimulating endocytosis. Newly developed device for magnetofection under dynamic gradient magnetic field, “DynaFECTOR", was used to compare transfection efficiency of human liver hepatocellular carcinoma cell line HepG2 with that obtained by lipofection and magnetofection. The effect of two parameters on transfection efficiency, incubation time under dynamic magnetic field and rotation frequency of magnet, was estimated. Liposomal magnetofection under dynamic gradient magnetic field showed the highest transfection efficiency for HepG2 cells.

Keywords: Dynamic magnetic field, Lipofection, Magnetofection

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Authors: K. Vijayalakshmi, S. Radhakrishnan

Abstract:

In this paper we have proposed a novel dynamic least cost multicast routing protocol using hybrid genetic algorithm for IP networks. Our protocol finds the multicast tree with minimum cost subject to delay, degree, and bandwidth constraints. The proposed protocol has the following features: i. Heuristic local search function has been devised and embedded with normal genetic operation to increase the speed and to get the optimized tree, ii. It is efficient to handle the dynamic situation arises due to either change in the multicast group membership or node / link failure, iii. Two different crossover and mutation probabilities have been used for maintaining the diversity of solution and quick convergence. The simulation results have shown that our proposed protocol generates dynamic multicast tree with lower cost. Results have also shown that the proposed algorithm has better convergence rate, better dynamic request success rate and less execution time than other existing algorithms. Effects of degree and delay constraints have also been analyzed for the multicast tree interns of search success rate.

Keywords: Dynamic Group membership change, Hybrid Genetic Algorithm, Link / node failure, QoS Parameters.

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Authors: Puntani Pongsumpun, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

The incidences of dengue hemorrhagic disease (DHF) over the long term exhibit a seasonal behavior. It has been hypothesized that these behaviors are due to the seasonal climate changes which in turn induce a seasonal variation in the incubation period of the virus while it is developing the mosquito. The standard dynamic analysis is applied for analysis the Susceptible-Exposed- Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model which includes an annual variation in the length of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The presence of both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections is allowed in the present model. We found that dynamic behavior of the endemic state changes as the influence of the seasonal variation of the EIP becomes stronger. As the influence is further increased, the trajectory exhibits sustained oscillations when it leaves the chaotic region.

Keywords: Chaotic behavior, dengue hemorrhagic fever, extrinsic incubation period, SEIR model.

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Authors: Arafat A. A. Shabaneh

Abstract:

Harsh environments require developed detection by an optical communication system to ensure a high level of security and safety. Fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) are emerging sensing instruments that respond to variations in strain and temperature by varying wavelengths. In this study, a cascaded uniform FBG is designed as a strain sensor for 6 km length at 1550 nm wavelength with 30 °C temperature by analyzing dynamic strain and wavelength shifts. The FBG is placed in a small segment of an optical fiber that reflects light with a specific wavelength and passes on the remaining wavelengths. Consequently, periodic alteration occurs in the refractive index in the fiber core. The alteration in the modal index of the fiber is produced by strain effects on a Bragg wavelength. When the developed sensor is exposed to the strain (0.01) of the cascaded uniform FBG, the wavelength shifts by 0.0000144383 μm. The sensing accuracy of the developed sensor is 0.0012. Simulation results show the reliability and effectiveness of the strain monitoring sensor for remote sensing application.

Keywords: Remote sensing, cascaded fiber Bragg grating, strain sensor, wavelength shift.

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Authors: Marcos A. Dullius, Ramon C. Fernandes, Divanízia N. Souza

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to develop a dynamic cardiac phantom for quality control in myocardial scintigraphy. The dynamic heart phantom constructed only contained the left ventricle, made of elastic material (latex), comprising two cavities: one internal and one external. The data showed a non-significant variation in the values of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) obtained by varying the heart rate. It was also possible to evaluate the ejection fraction (LVEF) through different arrays of image acquisition and to perform an intercomparison of LVEF by two different scintillation cameras. The results of the quality control tests were satisfactory, showing that they can be used as parameters in future assessments. The new dynamic heart phantom was demonstrated to be effective for use in LVEF measurements. Therefore, the new heart simulator is useful for the quality control of scintigraphic cameras.

Keywords: sheart, nuclear medicine, phantom

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Authors: Mostafa E. Saleh, A. Abdel Nabi, A. Baith Mohamed

Abstract:

In order to make surfing the internet faster, and to save redundant processing load with each request for the same web page, many caching techniques have been developed to reduce latency of retrieving data on World Wide Web. In this paper we will give a quick overview of existing web caching techniques used for dynamic web pages then we will introduce a design and implementation model that take advantage of “URL Rewriting" feature in some popular web servers, e.g. Apache, to provide an effective approach of caching dynamic web pages.

Keywords: Web Caching, URL Rewriting, Optimizing Web Performance, Dynamic Web Pages Loading Time.

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Authors: Yukinari Minagi , Akinori Kanasugi

Abstract:

This paper describes about dynamic reconfiguration to miniaturize arithmetic circuits in general-purpose processor. Dynamic reconfiguration is a technique to realize required functions by changing hardware construction during operation. The proposed arithmetic circuit performs floating-point arithmetic which is frequently used in science and technology. The data format is floating-point based on IEEE754. The proposed circuit is designed using VHDL, and verified the correct operation by simulations and experiments.

Keywords: dynamic reconfiguration, floating-point arithmetic, double precision, FPGA

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Authors: Mohammad Modarres, Shirin Aslani

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to develop a model to integrate “pricing" and “advertisement" for short life cycle products, such as branded fashion clothing products. To achieve this goal, we apply the concept of “Dynamic Pricing". There are two classes of advertisements, for the brand (regardless of product) and for a particular product. Advertising the brand affects the demand and price of all the products. Thus, the model considers all these products in relation with each other. We develop two different methods to integrate both types of advertisement and pricing. The first model is developed within the framework of dynamic programming. However, due to the complexity of the model, this method cannot be applicable for large size problems. Therefore, we develop another method, called hieratical approach, which is capable of handling the real world problems. Finally, we show the accuracy of this method, both theoretically and also by simulation.

Keywords: Advertising, Dynamic programming, Dynamic pricing, Promotion.

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Authors: Rawaa H. El-Bidweihy, Hisham M. Abdelsalam, Ihab A. El-Khodary

Abstract:

Bayesian networks are now considered to be a promising tool in the field of energy with different applications. In this study, the aim was to indicate the states of a previous constructed Bayesian network related to the solar energy in Egypt and the factors affecting its market share, depending on the followed data distribution type for each factor, and using either the Z-distribution approach or the Chebyshev’s inequality theorem. Later on, the separate and the conditional probabilities of the states of each factor in the Bayesian network were derived, either from the collected and scrapped historical data or from estimations and past studies. Results showed that we could use the constructed model for scenario and decision analysis concerning forecasting the total percentage of the market share of the solar energy in Egypt by 2035 and using it as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed. Also, it proved that whenever the use of the solar energy increases, the total costs decreases. Furthermore, we have identified different scenarios, such as the best, worst, 50/50, and most likely one, in terms of the expected changes in the percentage of the solar energy market share. The best scenario showed an 85% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market, while the worst scenario showed only a 24% probability that the market share of the solar energy in Egypt will exceed 10% of the total energy market. Furthermore, we applied policy analysis to check the effect of changing the controllable (decision) variable’s states acting as different scenarios, to show how it would affect the target nodes in the model. Additionally, the best environmental and economical scenarios were developed to show how other factors are expected to be, in order to affect the model positively. Additional evidence and derived probabilities were added for the weather dynamic nodes whose states depend on time, during the process of converting the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network, Chebyshev, decision variable, dynamic Bayesian network, Z-distribution

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