Search results for: Demands
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 308

Search results for: Demands

308 A DMB-TCA Simulation Method for On-Road Traffic Travel Demand Impact Analysis

Authors: Zundong Zhang, Limin Jia, Zhao Tian, Yanfang Yang

Abstract:

Travel Demands influence micro-level traffic behavior, furthermore traffic states. In order to evaluate the effect of travel demands on traffic states, this paper introduces the Demand- Motivation-Behaviors (DMB) micro traffic behavior analysis model which denotes that vehicles behaviors are determines by motivations that relies on traffic demands from the perspective of behavior science. For vehicles, there are two kinds of travel demands: reaching travel destinations from orientations and meeting expectations of travel speed. To satisfy travel demands, the micro traffic behaviors are delivered such as car following behavior, optional and mandatory lane changing behaviors. Especially, mandatory lane changing behaviors depending on travel demands take strong impact on traffic states. In this paper, we define the DMB-based cellular automate traffic simulation model to evaluate the effect of travel demands on traffic states under the different δ values that reflect the ratio of mandatory lane-change vehicles.

Keywords: Demand-Motivation-Behavior, Mandatory Lane Changing, Traffic Cellular Automata.

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307 Timetabling Communities’ Demands for an Effective Examination Timetabling Using Integer Linear Programming

Authors: N. F. Jamaluddin, N. A. H. Aizam

Abstract:

This paper explains the educational timetabling problem, a type of scheduling problem that is considered as one of the most challenging problem in optimization and operational research. The university examination timetabling problem (UETP), which involves assigning a set number of exams into a set number of timeslots whilst fulfilling all required conditions, has been widely investigated. The limitation of available timeslots and resources with the increasing number of examinations are the main reasons in the difficulty of solving this problem. Dynamical change in the examination scheduling system adds up the complication particularly in coping up with the demand and new requirements by the communities. Our objective is to investigate these demands and requirements with subjects taken from Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), through questionnaires. Integer linear programming model which reflects the preferences obtained to produce an effective examination timetabling was formed.

Keywords: Demands, educational timetabling, integer linear programming, scheduling, university examination timetabling problem.

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306 An Active Solar Energy System to Supply Heating Demands of the Teaching Staff Dormitory of Islamic Azad University Ramhormoz Branch

Authors: M. Talebzadegan, S. Bina, I. Riazi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present an active solar energy system to supply heating demands of the teaching staff dormitory of the Islamic Azad University of Ramhormoz. The design takes into account the solar radiations and climate data of Ramhormoz town and is based on the daily warm water consumption for health demands of 450 residents of the dormitory, which is equal to 27000 lit of 50-C° water, and building heating requirements with an area of 3500 m² well-protected by heatproof materials. First, heating demands of the building were calculated, then a hybrid system made up of solar and fossil energies was developed and finally, the design was economically evaluated. Since there is only roof space for using 110 flat solar water heaters, the calculations were made to hybridize solar water heating system with heat pumping system in which solar energy contributes 67% of the heat generated. According to calculations, the net present value “N.P.V.” of revenue stream exceeds “N.P.V.” of cash paid off in this project over three years, which makes economically quite promising. The return of investment and payback period of the project is 4 years. Also, the internal rate of return (IRR) of the project was 25%, which exceeds bank rate of interest in Iran and emphasizes the desirability of the project.

Keywords: Solar energy, heat demand, renewable, pollution.

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305 Reliability-Based Ductility Seismic Spectra of Structures with Tilting

Authors: Federico Valenzuela-Beltran, Sonia E. Ruiz, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Juan Bojorquez

Abstract:

A reliability-based methodology which uses structural demand hazard curves to consider the increment of the ductility demands of structures with tilting is proposed. The approach considers the effect of two orthogonal components of the ground motions as well as the influence of soil-structure interaction. The approach involves the calculation of ductility demand hazard curves for symmetric systems and, alternatively, for systems with different degrees of asymmetry. To get this objective, demand hazard curves corresponding to different global ductility demands of the systems are calculated. Next, Uniform Exceedance Rate Spectra (UERS) are developed for a specific mean annual rate of exceedance value. Ratios between UERS corresponding to asymmetric and to symmetric systems located in soft soil of the valley of Mexico are obtained. Results indicate that the ductility demands corresponding to tilted structures may be several times higher than those corresponding to symmetric structures, depending on several factors such as tilting angle and vibration period of structure and soil.

Keywords: Asymmetric yielding, tilted structures, seismic performance, structural reliability

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304 Seismic Behavior of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames for Uplift Permitted in Near-Fault Regions

Authors: M. Tehranizadeh, E. Shoushtari Rezvani

Abstract:

Seismic performance of steel moment-resisting frame structures is investigated considering nonlinear soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects. 10-, 15-, and 20-story planar building frames with aspect ratio of 3 are designed in accordance with current building codes. Inelastic seismic demands of the superstructure are considered using concentrated plasticity model. The raft foundation system is designed for different soil types. Beam-on-nonlinear Winkler foundation (BNWF) is used to represent dynamic impedance of the underlying soil. Two sets of pulse-like as well as no-pulse near-fault earthquakes are used as input ground motions. The results show that the reduction in drift demands due to nonlinear SSI is characterized by a more uniform distribution pattern along the height when compared to the fixed-base and linear SSI condition. It is also concluded that beneficial effects of nonlinear SSI on displacement demands is more significant in case of pulse-like ground motions and performance level of the steel moment-resisting frames can be enhanced.

Keywords: Soil-structure interaction, uplifting, soil plasticity, near-fault earthquake, tall building.

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303 A Hybrid Neural Network and Traditional Approach for Forecasting Lumpy Demand

Authors: A. Nasiri Pour, B. Rostami Tabar, A.Rahimzadeh

Abstract:

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Keywords: Lumpy Demand, Neural Network, Forecasting, Hybrid Approach.

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302 A Survey on the Requirements of University Course Timetabling

Authors: Nurul Liyana Abdul Aziz, Nur Aidya Hanum Aizam

Abstract:

Course timetabling problems occur every semester in a university which includes the allocation of resources (subjects, lecturers and students) to a number of fixed rooms and timeslots. The assignment is carried out in a way such that there are no conflicts within rooms, students and lecturers, as well as fulfilling a range of constraints. The constraints consist of rules and policies set up by the universities as well as lecturers’ and students’ preferences of courses to be allocated in specific timeslots. This paper specifically focuses on the preferences of the course timetabling problem in one of the public universities in Malaysia. The demands will be considered into our existing mathematical model to make it more generalized and can be used widely. We have distributed questionnaires to a number of lecturers and students of the university to investigate their demands and preferences for their desired course timetable. We classify the preferences thus converting them to construct one mathematical model that can produce such timetable.

Keywords: University course timetabling problem, integer programming, preferences, constraints.

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301 The Prospective Assessment of Zero-Energy Dwellings

Authors: Jovana Dj. Jovanovic, Svetlana M. Stevovic

Abstract:

The highest priority of so called, projected passive houses is to meet the appropriate energy demand. Every single material and layer which is injected into a dwelling has a certain energy quantity stored. The passive houses include optimized insulation levels with minimal thermal bridges, minimum of air leakage through the building, utilization of passive solar and internal gains, and good circulation of air which leans on mechanical ventilation system. The focus of this paper is on passive house features, benefits and targets, their feasibility and energy demands which are set up during each project. Numerous passive house-standards outline the very significant role of zero-energy dwellings towards the modern label of sustainable development. It is clear that the performance of both built and existing housing stock must be addressed if the population across the world sets out the energy objectives. This scientific article examines passive house features since the many passive house cases are launched.

Keywords: Benefits, energy demands, passive houses, sustainable development.

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300 Estimation of Seismic Deformation Demands of Tall Buildings with Symmetric Setbacks

Authors: A. Alirezaei, S. Vahdani

Abstract:

This study estimates the seismic demands of tall buildings with central symmetric setbacks by using nonlinear time history analysis. Three setback structures, all 60-story high with setback in three levels, are used for evaluation. The effects of irregularities occurred by setback are evaluated by determination of global-drift, story-displacement and story drift. Story-displacement is modified by roof displacement and first story displacement and story drift is modified by global drift. All results are calculated at the center of mass and in x and y direction. Also the absolute values of these quantities are determined. The results show that increasing of vertical irregularities increases the global drift of the structure and enlarges the deformations in the height of the structure. It is also observed that the effects of geometry irregularity in the seismic deformations of setback structures are higher than those of mass irregularity.

Keywords: Deformation demand, drift, setback, tall building.

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299 The Competitive Newsvendor Game with Overestimated Demand

Authors: Chengli Liu, C. K. M. Lee

Abstract:

The tradition competitive newsvendor game assumes decision makers are rational. However, there are behavioral biases when people make decisions, such as loss aversion, mental accounting and overconfidence. Overestimation of a subject’s own performance is one type of overconfidence. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the overestimated demand in the newsvendor competitive game with two players. This study builds a competitive newsvendor game model where newsvendors have private information of their demands, which is overestimated. At the same time, demands of each newsvendor forecasted by a third party institution are available. This research shows that the overestimation leads to demand steal effect, which reduces the competitor’s order quantity. However, the overall supply of the product increases due to overestimation. This study illustrates the boundary condition for the overestimated newsvendor to have the equilibrium order drop due to the demand steal effect from the other newsvendor. A newsvendor who has higher critical fractile will see its equilibrium order decrease with the drop of estimation level from the other newsvendor.

Keywords: Bias, competitive newsvendor, Nash equilibrium, overestimation.

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298 A Refined Application of QFD in SCM, A New Approach

Authors: Nooshin La'l Mohamadi

Abstract:

Due to the fact that in the new century customers tend to express globally increasing demands, networks of interconnected businesses have been established in societies and the management of such networks seems to be a major key through gaining competitive advantages. Supply chain management encompasses such managerial activities. Within a supply chain, a critical role is played by quality. QFD is a widely-utilized tool which serves the purpose of not only bringing quality to the ultimate provision of products or service packages required by the end customer or the retailer, but it can also initiate us into a satisfactory relationship with our initial customer; that is the wholesaler. However, the wholesalers- cooperation is considerably based on the capabilities that are heavily dependent on their locations and existing circumstances. Therefore, it is undeniable that for all companies each wholesaler possesses a specific importance ratio which can heavily influence the figures calculated in the House of Quality in QFD. Moreover, due to the competitiveness of the marketplace today, it-s been widely recognized that consumers- expression of demands has been highly volatile in periods of production. Apparently, such instability and proneness to change has been very tangibly noticed and taking it into account during the analysis of HOQ is widely influential and doubtlessly required. For a more reliable outcome in such matters, this article demonstrates the application viability of Analytic Network Process for considering the wholesalers- reputation and simultaneously introduces a mortality coefficient for the reliability and stability of the consumers- expressed demands in course of time. Following to this, the paper provides further elaboration on the relevant contributory factors and approaches through the calculation of such coefficients. In the end, the article concludes that an empirical application is needed to achieve broader validity.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process, Quality Function Deployment, QFD flaws, Supply Chain Management

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297 Evolution of Quality Function Deployment (QFD) via Fuzzy Concepts and Neural Networks

Authors: M. Haghighi, M. Zowghi, B. Zohouri

Abstract:

Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is an expounded, multi-step planning method for delivering commodity, services, and processes to customers, both external and internal to an organization. It is a way to convert between the diverse customer languages expressing demands (Voice of the Customer), and the organization-s languages expressing results that sate those demands. The policy is to establish one or more matrices that inter-relate producer and consumer reciprocal expectations. Due to its visual presence is called the “House of Quality" (HOQ). In this paper, we assumed HOQ in multi attribute decision making (MADM) pattern and through a proposed MADM method, rank technical specifications. Thereafter compute satisfaction degree of customer requirements and for it, we apply vagueness and uncertainty conditions in decision making by fuzzy set theory. This approach would propound supervised neural network (perceptron) for MADM problem solving.

Keywords: MADM, fuzzy set, QFD, supervised neural network (perceptron).

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296 A Study of the Problems and Demands of Community Leaders- Training in the Upper Northeastern Region

Authors: Teerawach Khamkorn, Laongtip Mathurasa, Savittree Rochanasmita Arnold, Witthaya Mekhum

Abstract:

This research is aimed at studying the nature of problems and demands of the training for community leaders in the upper northeastern region of Thailand. Population and group samplings are based on 360 community leaders in the region who have experienced prior training from the Udonthani Rajabhat University. Stratified random samplings have been drawn upon 186 participants. The research tools is questionnaires. The frequency, percentage and standard deviation are employed in data analysis. The findings indicate that most of community leaders are males and senior adults. The problems in training are associated with the inconveniences of long-distance travelling to training locations, inadequacy of learning centers and training sites and high training costs. The demand of training is basically motivated by a desire for self-development in modern knowledge in keeping up-to-date with the changing world and the need for technological application and facilitation in shortening the distance to training locations and in limiting expensive training costs.

Keywords: Community leaders, Distance Training, Management, Technology.

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295 Target and Kaizen Costing

Authors: Alireza Azimi Sani , Mahdi Allahverdizadeh

Abstract:

increased competition and increased costs of designing made it important for the firms to identify the right products and the right methods for manufacturing the products. Firms should focus on customers and identify customer demands directly to design the right products. Several management methods and techniques that are currently available improve one or more functions or processes in an industry and do not take the complete product life cycle into consideration. On the other hand target costing is a method / philosophy that takes financial, manufacturing and customer aspects into consideration during designing phase and helps firms in making product design decisions to increase the profit / value of the company. It uses various techniques to identify customer demands, to decrease costs of manufacturing and finally to achieve strategic goals. Target Costing forms an integral part of total product design / redesign based on strategic plans.

Keywords: Target Costing, Target Cost Management, Cost Management, Activity Based Costing, New product design

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294 Seismic Assessment of Old Existing RC Buildings on Madinah with Masonry Infilled Using Ambient Vibration Measurements

Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

Abstract:

Early pre-code reinforced concrete structures present undetermined resistance to earthquakes. This situation is particularly unacceptable in the case of essential structures, such as healthcare structures and pilgrims' houses. Amongst these, an existing old RC building in Madinah city (KSA) is seismically evaluated with and without infill wall and their dynamic characteristics are compared with measured values in the field using ambient vibration measurements (AVM). After updating the mathematical models for this building with the experimental results, three dimensional pushover analysis (Nonlinear static analysis) was carried out using commercial structural analysis software incorporating inelastic material properties for concrete, infill and steel. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the expected performance of structural systems by estimating, strength and deformation demands in design, and comparing these demands to available capacities at the performance levels of interest. The results summarized and discussed.

Keywords: Seismic Assessment, Pushover Analysis, Ambient vibration, Modal update.

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293 Integration GIS–SCADA Power Systems to Enclosure Air Dispersion Model

Authors: Ibrahim Shaker, Amr El Hossany, Moustafa Osman, Mohamed El Raey

Abstract:

This paper will explore integration model between GIS–SCADA system and enclosure quantification model to approach the impact of failure-safe event. There are real demands to identify spatial objects and improve control system performance. Nevertheless, the employed methodology is predicting electro-mechanic operations and corresponding time to environmental incident variations. Open processing, as object systems technology, is presented for integration enclosure database with minimal memory size and computation time via connectivity drivers such as ODBC:JDBC during main stages of GIS–SCADA connection. The function of Geographic Information System is manipulating power distribution in contrast to developing issues. In other ward, GIS-SCADA systems integration will require numerical objects of process to enable system model calibration and estimation demands, determine of past events for analysis and prediction of emergency situations for response training.

Keywords: Air dispersion model, integration power system, SCADA systems, GIS system, environmental management.

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292 The Study of the Variability of Anticipatory Postural Adjustments in Recurrent Non-specific LBP Patients

Authors: Rosita Hedayati , Sedighe Kahrizi , Mohammad Parnianpour , Fariba Bahrami , Anoshirvan Kazemnejad

Abstract:

The study of the variability of the postural strategies in low back pain patients, as a criterion in evaluation of the adaptability of this system to the environmental demands is the purpose of this study. A cross-sectional case-control study was performed on 21 recurrent non-specific low back pain patients and 21 healthy volunteers. The electromyography activity of Deltoid, External Oblique (EO), Transverse Abdominis/Internal Oblique (TrA/IO) and Erector Spine (ES) muscles of each person was recorded in 75 rapid arm flexion with maximum acceleration. Standard deviation of trunk muscles onset relative to deltoid muscle onset were statistically analyzed by MANOVA . The results show that chronic low back pain patients exhibit less variability in their anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs) in comparison with the control group. There is a decrease in variability of postural control system of recurrent non-specific low back pain patients that can result in the persistence of pain and chronicity by decreasing the adaptability to environmental demands.

Keywords: EMG Onset Latency, Variability, Posture, Non - specific Low Back Pain

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291 Design and Operation of a Multicarrier Energy System Based On Multi Objective Optimization Approach

Authors: Azadeh Maroufmashat, Sourena Sattari Khavas, Halle Bakhteeyar

Abstract:

Multi-energy systems will enhance the system reliability and power quality. This paper presents an integrated approach for the design and operation of distributed energy resources (DER) systems, based on energy hub modeling. A multi-objective optimization model is developed by considering an integrated view of electricity and natural gas network to analyze the optimal design and operating condition of DER systems, by considering two conflicting objectives, namely, minimization of total cost and the minimization of environmental impact which is assessed in terms of CO2 emissions. The mathematical model considers energy demands of the site, local climate data, and utility tariff structure, as well as technical and financial characteristics of the candidate DER technologies. To provide energy demands, energy systems including photovoltaic, and co-generation systems, boiler, central power grid are considered. As an illustrative example, a hotel in Iran demonstrates potential applications of the proposed method. The results prove that increasing the satisfaction degree of environmental objective leads to increased total cost.

Keywords: Multi objective optimization, DER systems, Energy hub, Cost, CO2 emission.

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290 Quantifying Uncertainties in an Archetype-Based Building Stock Energy Model by Use of Individual Building Models

Authors: Morten Brøgger, Kim Wittchen

Abstract:

Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Keywords: Building stock energy modelling, energy-savings, archetype.

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289 Improving Automotive Efficiency through Lean Management Tools: A Case Study

Authors: Raed EL-Khalil, Hussein Zeaiter

Abstract:

Managing and improving efficiency in the current highly competitive global automotive industry demands that those companies adopt leaner and more flexible systems. During the past 20 years the domestic automotive industry in North America has been focusing on establishing new management strategies in order to meet market demands. The lean management process also known as Toyota Manufacturing Process (TPS) or lean manufacturing encompasses tools and techniques that were established in order to provide the best quality product with the fastest lead time at the lowest cost. The following paper presents a study that focused on improving labor efficiency at one of the Big Three (Ford, GM, Chrysler LLC) domestic automotive facility in North America. The objective of the study was to utilize several lean management tools in order to optimize the efficiency and utilization levels at the “Pre- Marriage” chassis area in a truck manufacturing and assembly facility. Utilizing three different lean tools (i.e. Standardization of work, 7 Wastes, and 5S) this research was able to improve efficiency by 51%, utilization by 246%, and reduce operations by 14%. The return on investment calculated based on the improvements made was 284%.

Keywords: Lean Manufacturing, Standardized Work, Operation Efficiency and Utilization, Operations Management.

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288 Students, Knowledge and Employability

Authors: James Moir

Abstract:

Citizens are increasingly are provided with choice and customization in public services and this has now also become a key feature of higher education in terms of policy roll-outs on personal development planning (PDP) and more generally as part of the employability agenda. The goal here is to transform people, in this case graduates, into active, responsible citizen-workers. A key part of this rhetoric and logic is the inculcation of graduate attributes within students. However, there has also been a concern with the issue of student lack of engagement and perseverance with their studies. This paper sets out to explore some of these conceptions that link graduate attributes with citizenship as well as the notion of how identity is forged through the higher education process. Examples are drawn from a quality enhancement project that is being operated within the context of the Scottish higher education system. This is further framed within the wider context of competing and conflicting demands on higher education, exacerbated by the current worldwide economic climate. There are now pressures on students to develop their employability skills as well as their capacity to engage with global issues such as behavioural change in the light of environmental concerns. It is argued that these pressures, in effect, lead to a form of personalization that is concerned with how graduates develop their sense of identity as something that is engineered and re-engineered to meet these demands.

Keywords: students, higher education, employability, knowledge, personal development

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287 Narrative and Expository Text Reading Comprehension by Fourth Grade Spanish-Speaking Children

Authors: Mariela V. De Mier, Veronica S. Sanchez Abchi, Ana M. Borzone

Abstract:

This work aims to explore the factors that have an incidence in reading comprehension process, with different type of texts. In a recent study with 2nd, 3rd and 4th grade children, it was observed that reading comprehension of narrative texts was better than comprehension of expository texts. Nevertheless it seems that not only the type of text but also other textual factors would account for comprehension depending on the cognitive processing demands posed by the text. In order to explore this assumption, three narrative and three expository texts were elaborated with different degree of complexity. A group of 40 fourth grade Spanish-speaking children took part in the study. Children were asked to read the texts and answer orally three literal and three inferential questions for each text. The quantitative and qualitative analysis of children responses showed that children had difficulties in both, narrative and expository texts. The problem was to answer those questions that involved establishing complex relationships among information units that were present in the text or that should be activated from children’s previous knowledge to make an inference. Considering the data analysis, it could be concluded that there is some interaction between the type of text and the cognitive processing load of a specific text.

Keywords: comprehension, textual factors, type of text, processing demands.

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286 Using Statistical Significance and Prediction to Test Long/Short Term Public Services and Patients Cohorts: A Case Study in Scotland

Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found  that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.

Keywords: Class, cohorts, data frames, grouping, prediction, probabilities, services.

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285 Internet Optimization by Negotiating Traffic Times

Authors: Carlos Gonzalez

Abstract:

This paper describes a system to optimize the use of the internet by clients requiring downloading of videos at peak hours. The system consists of a web server belonging to a provider of video contents, a provider of internet communications and a software application running on a client’s computer. The client using the application software will communicate to the video provider a list of the client’s future video demands. The video provider calculates which videos are going to be more in demand for download in the immediate future, and proceeds to request the internet provider the most optimal hours to do the downloading. The times of the downloading will be sent to the application software, which will use the information of pre-established hours negotiated between the video provider and the internet provider to download those videos. The videos will be saved in a special protected section of the user’s hard disk, which will only be accessed by the application software in the client’s computer. When the client is ready to see a video, the application will search the list of current existent videos in the area of the hard disk; if it does exist, it will use this video directly without the need for internet access. We found that the best way to optimize the download traffic of videos is by negotiation between the internet communication provider and the video content provider.

Keywords: Internet optimization, video download, future demands, secure storage.

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284 LFC Design of a Deregulated Power System with TCPS Using PSO

Authors: H. Shayeghi, H.A. Shayanfar, A. Jalili

Abstract:

In the LFC problem, the interconnections among some areas are the input of disturbances, and therefore, it is important to suppress the disturbances by the coordination of governor systems. In contrast, tie-line power flow control by TCPS located between two areas makes it possible to stabilize the system frequency oscillations positively through interconnection, which is also expected to provide a new ancillary service for the further power systems. Thus, a control strategy using controlling the phase angle of TCPS is proposed for provide active control facility of system frequency in this paper. Also, the optimum adjustment of PID controller's parameters in a robust way under bilateral contracted scenario following the large step load demands and disturbances with and without TCPS are investigated by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), that has a strong ability to find the most optimistic results. This newly developed control strategy combines the advantage of PSO and TCPS and has simple stricture that is easy to implement and tune. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy a three-area restructured power system is considered as a test system under different operating conditions and system nonlinearities. Analysis reveals that the TCPS is quite capable of suppressing the frequency and tie-line power oscillations effectively as compared to that obtained without TCPS for a wide range of plant parameter changes, area load demands and disturbances even in the presence of system nonlinearities.

Keywords: LFC, TCPS, Dregulated Power System, PowerSystem Control, PSO.

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283 Comparison between Pushover Analysis Techniques and Validation of the Simplified Modal Pushover Analysis

Authors: N. F. Hanna, A. M. Haridy

Abstract:

One of the main drawbacks of the Modal Pushover Analysis (MPA) is the need to perform nonlinear time-history analysis, which complicates the analysis method and time. A simplified version of the MPA has been proposed based on the concept of the inelastic deformation ratio. Furthermore, the effect of the higher modes of vibration is considered by assuming linearly-elastic responses, which enables the use of standard elastic response spectrum analysis. In this thesis, the simplified MPA (SMPA) method is applied to determine the target global drift and the inter-story drifts of steel frame building. The effect of the higher vibration modes is considered within the framework of the SMPA. A comprehensive survey about the inelastic deformation ratio is presented. After that, a suitable expression from literature is selected for the inelastic deformation ratio and then implemented in the SMPA. The estimated seismic demands using the SMPA, such as target drift, base shear, and the inter-story drifts, are compared with the seismic responses determined by applying the standard MPA. The accuracy of the estimated seismic demands is validated by comparing with the results obtained by the nonlinear time-history analysis using real earthquake records.

Keywords: Modal analysis, pushover analysis, seismic performance, target displacement.

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282 An Investigation on the Accuracy of Nonlinear Static Procedures for Seismic Evaluation of Buckling-restrained Braced Frames

Authors: An Hong Nguyen, Chatpan Chintanapakdee, Toshiro Hayashikawa

Abstract:

Presented herein is an assessment of current nonlinear static procedures (NSPs) for seismic evaluation of bucklingrestrained braced frames (BRBFs) which have become a favorable lateral-force resisting system for earthquake resistant buildings. The bias and accuracy of modal, improved modal pushover analysis (MPA, IMPA) and mass proportional pushover (MPP) procedures are comparatively investigated when they are applied to BRBF buildings subjected to two sets of strong ground motions. The assessment is based on a comparison of seismic displacement demands such as target roof displacements, peak floor/roof displacements and inter-story drifts. The NSP estimates are compared to 'exact' results from nonlinear response history analysis (NLRHA). The response statistics presented show that the MPP procedure tends to significantly overestimate seismic demands of lower stories of tall buildings considered in this study while MPA and IMPA procedures provide reasonably accurate results in estimating maximum inter-story drift over all stories of studied BRBF systems.

Keywords: Buckling-restrained braced frames, nonlinearresponse history analysis, nonlinear static procedure, seismicdemands.

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281 Methodology of Personalizing Interior Spaces in Public Libraries

Authors: Baharak Mousapour

Abstract:

Creating public spaces which are tailored for the specific demands of the individuals is one of the challenges for the contemporary interior designers. Improving the general knowledge as well as providing a forum for all walks of life to exploit is one of the objectives of a public library. In this regard, interior design in consistent with the demands of the individuals is of paramount importance. Seemingly, study spaces, in particular, those in close relation to the personalized sector, have proven to be challenging, according to the literature. To address this challenge, attributes of individuals, namely, perception of people from public spaces and their interactions with the so-called spaces, should be analyzed to provide interior designers with something to work on. This paper follows the analytic-descriptive research methodology by outlining case study libraries which have personalized public libraries with the investigation of the type of personalization as its primary objective and (I) recognition of physical schedule and the know-how of the spatial connection in indoor design of a library and (II) analysis of each personalized space in relation to other spaces of the library as its secondary objectives. The significance of the current research lies in the concept of personalization as one of the most recent methods of attracting people to libraries. Previous research exists in this regard, but the lack of data concerning personalization makes this topic worth investigating. Hence, this study aims to put forward approaches through real-case studies for the designers to deal with this concept.

Keywords: interior design, library, library design, personalization

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280 The Effect of Sport Specific Exercises on the Visual Skills of Rugby Players

Authors: P.J. Du Toit, P. Janse Van Vuuren , S. Le Roux , E. Henning, M. Kleynhans, H.C. Terblanche, D. Crafford, C. Grobbelaar, P.S. Wood, C.C. Grant, L. Fletcher

Abstract:

Introduction: Visual performance is an important factor in sport excellence. Visual involvement in a sport varies according to environmental demands associated with that sport. These environmental demands are matched by a task specific motor response. The purpose of this study was to determine if sport specific exercises will improve the visual performance of male rugby players, in order to achieve maximal results on the sports field. Materials & Methods: Twenty six adult male rugby players, aged 16-22, were chosen as subjects. In order to evaluate the effect of sport specific exercises on visual skills, a pre-test - post-test experimental group design was adopted for the study. Results: Significant differences (p≤0.05) were seen in the focussing, tracking, vergence, sequencing, eye-hand coordination and visualisation components Discussion & Conclusions: Sport specific exercises improved visual skills in rugby players which may provide them with an advantage over their opponents. This study suggests that these training programs and participation in regular on-line EyeDrills sports vision exercises (www.eyedrills.co.za) aimed at improving the athlete-s visual coordination, concentration, focus, hand-eye co-ordination, anticipation and motor response should be incorpotated in the rugby players exercise regime.

Keywords: Rugby players, sport specific exercises, visual skills.

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279 Seismic Assessment of an Existing Dual System RC Buildings in Madinah City

Authors: Tarek M. Alguhane, Ayman H. Khalil, M. N. Fayed, Ayman M. Ismail

Abstract:

A 15-storey RC building, studied in this paper, is representative of modern building type constructed in Madina City in Saudi Arabia before 10 years ago. These buildings are almost consisting of reinforced concrete skeleton i.e. columns, beams and flat slab as well as shear walls in the stairs and elevator areas arranged in the way to have a resistance system for lateral loads (wind – earthquake loads). In this study, the dynamic properties of the 15-storey RC building were identified using ambient motions recorded at several, spatially-distributed locations within each building. Three dimensional pushover analysis (Nonlinear static analysis) was carried out using SAP2000 software incorporating inelastic material properties for concrete, infill and steel. The effect of modeling the building with and without infill walls, on the performance point as well as capacity and demand spectra due to EQ design spectrum function in Madina area has been investigated. ATC- 40 capacity and demand spectra are utilized to get the modification factor (R) for the studied building. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the expected performance of structural systems by estimating, strength and deformation demands in design, and comparing these demands to available capacities at the performance levels of interest. The results are summarized and discussed.

Keywords: Seismic assessment, pushover analysis, ambient vibration, modal update.

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