Search results for: future demands
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1852

Search results for: future demands

1852 A Hybrid Neural Network and Traditional Approach for Forecasting Lumpy Demand

Authors: A. Nasiri Pour, B. Rostami Tabar, A.Rahimzadeh

Abstract:

Accurate demand forecasting is one of the most key issues in inventory management of spare parts. The problem of modeling future consumption becomes especially difficult for lumpy patterns, which characterized by intervals in which there is no demand and, periods with actual demand occurrences with large variation in demand levels. However, many of the forecasting methods may perform poorly when demand for an item is lumpy. In this study based on the characteristic of lumpy demand patterns of spare parts a hybrid forecasting approach has been developed, which use a multi-layered perceptron neural network and a traditional recursive method for forecasting future demands. In the described approach the multi-layered perceptron are adapted to forecast occurrences of non-zero demands, and then a conventional recursive method is used to estimate the quantity of non-zero demands. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, their forecasts were compared to those obtained by using Syntetos & Boylan approximation, recently employed multi-layered perceptron neural network, generalized regression neural network and elman recurrent neural network in this area. The models were applied to forecast future demand of spare parts of Arak Petrochemical Company in Iran, using 30 types of real data sets. The results indicate that the forecasts obtained by using our proposed mode are superior to those obtained by using other methods.

Keywords: Lumpy Demand, Neural Network, Forecasting, Hybrid Approach.

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1851 Internet Optimization by Negotiating Traffic Times

Authors: Carlos Gonzalez

Abstract:

This paper describes a system to optimize the use of the internet by clients requiring downloading of videos at peak hours. The system consists of a web server belonging to a provider of video contents, a provider of internet communications and a software application running on a client’s computer. The client using the application software will communicate to the video provider a list of the client’s future video demands. The video provider calculates which videos are going to be more in demand for download in the immediate future, and proceeds to request the internet provider the most optimal hours to do the downloading. The times of the downloading will be sent to the application software, which will use the information of pre-established hours negotiated between the video provider and the internet provider to download those videos. The videos will be saved in a special protected section of the user’s hard disk, which will only be accessed by the application software in the client’s computer. When the client is ready to see a video, the application will search the list of current existent videos in the area of the hard disk; if it does exist, it will use this video directly without the need for internet access. We found that the best way to optimize the download traffic of videos is by negotiation between the internet communication provider and the video content provider.

Keywords: Internet optimization, video download, future demands, secure storage.

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1850 A DMB-TCA Simulation Method for On-Road Traffic Travel Demand Impact Analysis

Authors: Zundong Zhang, Limin Jia, Zhao Tian, Yanfang Yang

Abstract:

Travel Demands influence micro-level traffic behavior, furthermore traffic states. In order to evaluate the effect of travel demands on traffic states, this paper introduces the Demand- Motivation-Behaviors (DMB) micro traffic behavior analysis model which denotes that vehicles behaviors are determines by motivations that relies on traffic demands from the perspective of behavior science. For vehicles, there are two kinds of travel demands: reaching travel destinations from orientations and meeting expectations of travel speed. To satisfy travel demands, the micro traffic behaviors are delivered such as car following behavior, optional and mandatory lane changing behaviors. Especially, mandatory lane changing behaviors depending on travel demands take strong impact on traffic states. In this paper, we define the DMB-based cellular automate traffic simulation model to evaluate the effect of travel demands on traffic states under the different δ values that reflect the ratio of mandatory lane-change vehicles.

Keywords: Demand-Motivation-Behavior, Mandatory Lane Changing, Traffic Cellular Automata.

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1849 Packaging and Interconnection Technologies of Power Devices, Challenges and Future Trends

Authors: Raed A. Amro

Abstract:

Standard packaging and interconnection technologies of power devices have difficulties meeting the increasing thermal demands of new application fields of power electronics devices. Main restrictions are the decreasing reliability of bond-wires and solder layers with increasing junction temperature. In the last few years intensive efforts have been invested in developing new packaging and interconnection solutions which may open a path to future application of power devices. In this paper, the main failure mechanisms of power devices are described and principle of new packaging and interconnection concepts and their power cycling reliability are presented.

Keywords: Power electronics devices, Reliability, Power Cycling, Low-temperature joining technique (LTJT)

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1848 Q-Net: A Novel QoS Aware Routing Algorithm for Future Data Networks

Authors: Maassoumeh Javadi Baygi, Abdul Rahman B Ramli, Borhanuddin Mohd Ali, Syamsiah Mashohor

Abstract:

The expectation of network performance from the early days of ARPANET until now has been changed significantly. Every day, new advancement in technological infrastructure opens the doors for better quality of service and accordingly level of perceived quality of network services have been increased over the time. Nowadays for many applications, late information has no value or even may result in financial or catastrophic loss, on the other hand, demands for some level of guarantee in providing and maintaining quality of service are ever increasing. Based on this history, having a QoS aware routing system which is able to provide today's required level of quality of service in the networks and effectively adapt to the future needs, seems as a key requirement for future Internet. In this work we have extended the traditional AntNet routing system to support QoS with multiple metrics such as bandwidth and delay which is named Q-Net. This novel scalable QoS routing system aims to provide different types of services in the network simultaneously. Each type of service can be provided for a period of time in the network and network nodes do not need to have any previous knowledge about it. When a type of quality of service is requested, Q-Net will allocate required resources for the service and will guarantee QoS requirement of the service, based on target objectives.

Keywords: Quality of Service, Routing, Ant Colony Optimization, Ant-based algorithms.

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1847 eTransformation Framework for the Cognitive Systems

Authors: Ana Hol

Abstract:

Digital systems are in the Cognitive wave of the eTransformations and are now extensively aimed at meeting the individuals’ demands, both those of customers requiring services and those of service providers. It is also apparent that successful future systems will not just simply open doors to the traditional owners/users to offer and receive services such as Uber, for example, does today, but will in the future require more customized and cognitively enabled infrastructures that will be responsive to the system user’s needs. To be able to identify what is required for such systems this research reviews the historical and the current effects of the eTransformation process by studying: 1. eTransitions of company websites and mobile applications, 2. Emergence of new shared economy business models such as Uber, and 3. New requirements for demand driven, cognitive systems capable of learning and just-in-time decision-making. Based on the analysis, this study proposes a Cognitive eTransformation Framework capable of guiding implementations of new responsive and user aware systems.

Keywords: System implementations, AI supported systems, cognitive systems, eTransformation.

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1846 Timetabling Communities’ Demands for an Effective Examination Timetabling Using Integer Linear Programming

Authors: N. F. Jamaluddin, N. A. H. Aizam

Abstract:

This paper explains the educational timetabling problem, a type of scheduling problem that is considered as one of the most challenging problem in optimization and operational research. The university examination timetabling problem (UETP), which involves assigning a set number of exams into a set number of timeslots whilst fulfilling all required conditions, has been widely investigated. The limitation of available timeslots and resources with the increasing number of examinations are the main reasons in the difficulty of solving this problem. Dynamical change in the examination scheduling system adds up the complication particularly in coping up with the demand and new requirements by the communities. Our objective is to investigate these demands and requirements with subjects taken from Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), through questionnaires. Integer linear programming model which reflects the preferences obtained to produce an effective examination timetabling was formed.

Keywords: Demands, educational timetabling, integer linear programming, scheduling, university examination timetabling problem.

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1845 Impact of Solar Energy Based Power Grid for Future Prospective of Pakistan

Authors: Muhammd Usman Sardar, Mazhar Hussain Baloch, Muhammad Shahbaz Ahmad, Zahir Javed Paracha

Abstract:

Shortfall of electrical energy in Pakistan is a challenge adversely affecting its industrial output and social growth. As elsewhere, Pakistan derives its electrical energy from a number of conventional sources. The exhaustion of petroleum and conventional resources, the rising costs coupled with extremely adverse climatic effects are taking its toll especially on the under-developed countries like Pakistan. As alternate, renewable energy sources like hydropower, solar, wind, even bio-energy and a mix of some or all of them could provide a credible alternative to the conventional energy resources that would not only be cleaner but sustainable as well. As a model, solar energy-based power grid for the near future has been attempted to offset the energy shortfalls as a mix with our existing sustainable natural energy resources. An assessment of solar energy potential for electricity generation is being presented for fulfilling the energy demands with higher level of reliability and sustainability. This model is based on the premise that solar energy potential of Pakistan is not only reliable but also sustainable. This research estimates the present & future approaching renewable energy resource specially the impact of solar energy based power grid for mitigating energy shortage in Pakistan.

Keywords: Powergrid network, solar photovoltaic (SPV) setups, solar power generation, solar energy technology (SET).

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1844 Research and Application of Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems Wireless Communications Standards for Spacecraft

Authors: Cuitao Zhang, Xiongwen He

Abstract:

According to the new requirements of the future spacecraft, such as networking, modularization and non-cable, this paper studies the CCSDS wireless communications standards, and focuses on the low data-rate wireless communications for spacecraft monitoring and control. The application fields and advantages of wireless communications are analyzed. Wireless communications technology has significant advantages in reducing the weight of the spacecraft, saving time in spacecraft integration, etc. Based on this technology, a scheme for spacecraft data system is put forward. The corresponding block diagram and key wireless interface design of the spacecraft data system are given. The design proposal of the wireless node and information flow of the spacecraft are also analyzed. The results show that the wireless communications scheme is reasonable and feasible. The wireless communications technology can meet the future spacecraft demands in networking, modularization and non-cable.

Keywords: CCSDS standards, information flow, non-cable, spacecraft, wireless communications.

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1843 Ethics, Identity and Organizational Learning –Challenges for South African Managers

Authors: Jacobus A. A. Lazenby

Abstract:

As a result of the ever-changing environment and the demands of rganisations- customers, it is important to recognise the importance of some important managerial challenges. It is the sincere belief that failure to meet these challenges, will ultimately contribute to inevitable problems for organisations. This recognition requires from managers and by implication organisations to be engaged in ethical behaviour, identity awareness and learning organisational behaviour. All these aspects actually reflect on the importance of intellectual capital as the competitive weapons for organisations in the future.

Keywords: Ethical behaviour, identity awareness, learningbehaviour.

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1842 An Active Solar Energy System to Supply Heating Demands of the Teaching Staff Dormitory of Islamic Azad University Ramhormoz Branch

Authors: M. Talebzadegan, S. Bina, I. Riazi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present an active solar energy system to supply heating demands of the teaching staff dormitory of the Islamic Azad University of Ramhormoz. The design takes into account the solar radiations and climate data of Ramhormoz town and is based on the daily warm water consumption for health demands of 450 residents of the dormitory, which is equal to 27000 lit of 50-C° water, and building heating requirements with an area of 3500 m² well-protected by heatproof materials. First, heating demands of the building were calculated, then a hybrid system made up of solar and fossil energies was developed and finally, the design was economically evaluated. Since there is only roof space for using 110 flat solar water heaters, the calculations were made to hybridize solar water heating system with heat pumping system in which solar energy contributes 67% of the heat generated. According to calculations, the net present value “N.P.V.” of revenue stream exceeds “N.P.V.” of cash paid off in this project over three years, which makes economically quite promising. The return of investment and payback period of the project is 4 years. Also, the internal rate of return (IRR) of the project was 25%, which exceeds bank rate of interest in Iran and emphasizes the desirability of the project.

Keywords: Solar energy, heat demand, renewable, pollution.

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1841 Ideal School of the Future from the Parents´ View: Quantitative Research of Faculty of Education of the University of Hradec Králové

Authors: Yveta Pohnětalová

Abstract:

The topic of possible forms of future schools according to rapid changes of life in the 21st century has become to reach several economic and social prognoses. In our research, we have tried to find out what the future school form is according to pupils’ parent’s view. School is a part of life of each person and based on own experience there is a certain individual picture created about a possible look of future education. The aim of our quantitative research was to find out how parents of first grade primary school pupils see the ideal school of the future. The quantitative research realized at the Faculty of Education of the University of Hradec Králové (Czech Republic). By statistical analysis of gained data from 120 respondents, there have been several views of schools of future identified in terms of mission and also the way of education. But a common indicator according to addressed parents would be more focused on the overall personality development rather than the field practice which is related to a realistic idea that school of the future is not and will not be the only source of education.

Keywords: Parents’ approach, school of the future, survey, ways of education.

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1840 Home-Network Security Model in Ubiquitous Environment

Authors: Dong-Young Yoo, Jong-Whoi Shin, Jin-Young Choi

Abstract:

Social interest and demand on Home-Network has been increasing greatly. Although various services are being introduced to respond to such demands, they can cause serious security problems when linked to the open network such as Internet. This paper reviews the security requirements to protect the service users with assumption that the Home-Network environment is connected to Internet and then proposes the security model based on the requirement. The proposed security model can satisfy most of the requirements and further can be dynamically applied to the future ubiquitous Home-Networks.

Keywords: Home-Network, Security, Vulnerability, Response, Countermeasure.

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1839 Reliability-Based Ductility Seismic Spectra of Structures with Tilting

Authors: Federico Valenzuela-Beltran, Sonia E. Ruiz, Alfredo Reyes-Salazar, Juan Bojorquez

Abstract:

A reliability-based methodology which uses structural demand hazard curves to consider the increment of the ductility demands of structures with tilting is proposed. The approach considers the effect of two orthogonal components of the ground motions as well as the influence of soil-structure interaction. The approach involves the calculation of ductility demand hazard curves for symmetric systems and, alternatively, for systems with different degrees of asymmetry. To get this objective, demand hazard curves corresponding to different global ductility demands of the systems are calculated. Next, Uniform Exceedance Rate Spectra (UERS) are developed for a specific mean annual rate of exceedance value. Ratios between UERS corresponding to asymmetric and to symmetric systems located in soft soil of the valley of Mexico are obtained. Results indicate that the ductility demands corresponding to tilted structures may be several times higher than those corresponding to symmetric structures, depending on several factors such as tilting angle and vibration period of structure and soil.

Keywords: Asymmetric yielding, tilted structures, seismic performance, structural reliability

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1838 Seismic Behavior of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames for Uplift Permitted in Near-Fault Regions

Authors: M. Tehranizadeh, E. Shoushtari Rezvani

Abstract:

Seismic performance of steel moment-resisting frame structures is investigated considering nonlinear soil-structure interaction (SSI) effects. 10-, 15-, and 20-story planar building frames with aspect ratio of 3 are designed in accordance with current building codes. Inelastic seismic demands of the superstructure are considered using concentrated plasticity model. The raft foundation system is designed for different soil types. Beam-on-nonlinear Winkler foundation (BNWF) is used to represent dynamic impedance of the underlying soil. Two sets of pulse-like as well as no-pulse near-fault earthquakes are used as input ground motions. The results show that the reduction in drift demands due to nonlinear SSI is characterized by a more uniform distribution pattern along the height when compared to the fixed-base and linear SSI condition. It is also concluded that beneficial effects of nonlinear SSI on displacement demands is more significant in case of pulse-like ground motions and performance level of the steel moment-resisting frames can be enhanced.

Keywords: Soil-structure interaction, uplifting, soil plasticity, near-fault earthquake, tall building.

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1837 Leadership in Future Operational Environment

Authors: M. Şimşek

Abstract:

Rapidly changing factors that affect daily life also affect operational environment and the way military leaders fulfill their missions. With the help of technological developments, traditional linearity of conflict and war has started to fade away. Furthermore, mission domain has broadened to include traditional threats, hybrid threats and new challenges of cyber and space. Considering the future operational environment, future military leaders need to adapt themselves to the new challenges of the future battlefield. But how to decide what kind of features of leadership are required to operate and accomplish mission in the new complex battlefield? In this article, the main aim is to provide answers to this question. To be able to find right answers, first leadership and leadership components are defined, and then characteristics of future operational environment are analyzed. Finally, leadership features that are required to be successful in redefined battlefield are explained. 

Keywords: Future operational environment, leadership, leadership components.

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1836 Javanese Adolescents- Future Orientation and Support for its Effort: An Indigenous Psychological Analysis

Authors: Niken Rarasati, Moh. A. Hakim, Kwartarini W. Yuniarti

Abstract:

This study aimed to explore future life orientation and support that needed to accomplish it. A total of 258 participants are Javanese high school student. The age of the sample ranges from 14 to 18 years old. Participants were asked about their future aspiration, their reason of choosing them as important goals in their life, and support that they need to accomplished their goals using open ended questionnaire. The responses were categorized through content analysis into four main categories. They are: (1) Self Fulfillment (72.1%) (2) Parents and Family (16.7%) (3) Altruism (8.1%) (4) Social and Economy Status (3.1%). Meanwhile, the categories for support that they needed are shown as follows: (1) Affection Support (64.7%) (2) Spiritual support (17.4%) (3) Material Support (10.9%) (4) Guidance Support (7.0%). The research found that affection support always gets the highest number in every future orientation categories. It can be concluded that although Javanese adolescents have different future orientation, they basically need affection support.

Keywords: Affection support, future orientation, indigenous psychology, Javanese adolescent

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1835 Multivariate School Travel Demand Regression Based on Trip Attraction

Authors: Ben-Edigbe J, RahmanR

Abstract:

Since primary school trips usually start from home, attention by many scholars have been focused on the home end for data gathering. Thereafter category analysis has often been relied upon when predicting school travel demands. In this paper, school end was relied on for data gathering and multivariate regression for future travel demand prediction. 9859 pupils were surveyed by way of questionnaires at 21 primary schools. The town was divided into 5 zones. The study was carried out in Skudai Town, Malaysia. Based on the hypothesis that the number of primary school trip ends are expected to be the same because school trips are fixed, the choice of trip end would have inconsequential effect on the outcome. The study compared empirical data for home and school trip end productions and attractions. Variance from both data results was insignificant, although some claims from home based family survey were found to be grossly exaggerated. Data from the school trip ends was relied on for travel demand prediction because of its completeness. Accessibility, trip attraction and trip production were then related to school trip rates under daylight and dry weather conditions. The paper concluded that, accessibility is an important parameter when predicting demand for future school trip rates.

Keywords: Trip generation, regression analysis, multiple linearregressions

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1834 Fuzzy Ideology based Long Term Load Forecasting

Authors: Jagadish H. Pujar

Abstract:

Fuzzy Load forecasting plays a paramount role in the operation and management of power systems. Accurate estimation of future power demands for various lead times facilitates the task of generating power reliably and economically. The forecasting of future loads for a relatively large lead time (months to few years) is studied here (long term load forecasting). Among the various techniques used in forecasting load, artificial intelligence techniques provide greater accuracy to the forecasts as compared to conventional techniques. Fuzzy Logic, a very robust artificial intelligent technique, is described in this paper to forecast load on long term basis. The paper gives a general algorithm to forecast long term load. The algorithm is an Extension of Short term load forecasting method to Long term load forecasting and concentrates not only on the forecast values of load but also on the errors incorporated into the forecast. Hence, by correcting the errors in the forecast, forecasts with very high accuracy have been achieved. The algorithm, in the paper, is demonstrated with the help of data collected for residential sector (LT2 (a) type load: Domestic consumers). Load, is determined for three consecutive years (from April-06 to March-09) in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm and to forecast for the next two years (from April-09 to March-11).

Keywords: Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC), Data DependantFactors(DDF), Model Dependent Factors(MDF), StatisticalError(SE), Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF), MiscellaneousError(ME).

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1833 The Documentary Analysis of Meta-Analysis Research in Violence of Media

Authors: Proud Arunrangsiwed

Abstract:

The part of “future direction” in the findings of meta-analysis could provide the great direction to conduct the future studies. This study, “The Documentary Analysis of Meta-Analysis Research in Violence of Media” would conclude “future directions” out of 10 meta-analysis papers. The purposes of this research are to find an appropriate research design or an appropriate methodology for the future research related to the topic, “violence of media”. Further research needs to explore by longitudinal and experimental design, and also needs to have a careful consideration about age effects, time spent effects, enjoyment effects and ordinary lifestyle of each media consumer.

Keywords: Aggressive, future direction, meta-analysis, media, violence.

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1832 Assessing and Improving Ramp-Up Capability

Authors: Sebastian Tschöpe, Konja Knüppel, Peter Nyhuis

Abstract:

In times when product life cycles are decreasing, while market demands are increasing, manufacturing enterprises are confronted with the challenge of more frequent and more complex ramp-ups. Thus it becomes obvious that ramp-up management is going to be a topic enterprises have to focus on in the future. Since each ramp-up is unique concerning the product, the process, the technology, the circumstances and the coaction of these four factors, the knowledge of the ramp-up situation and the current ramp-up capability of the enterprise are fundamental requirements for the subsequent improvement of the ramp-up capability of the production system.

In this article a methodology is going to be presented which can be used to define typical production ramp-up situations, to identify the current ramp-up capability of a production system and to improve it with respect to a specific situation. Additionally there will be a description of the functionality of a software-tool developed based on this methodology.

Keywords: Assessment methodology, ramp-up, ramp-up capability, software-tool.

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1831 How Does Improving the Existing DSL Infrastructure Influence the Expansion of Fiber Technology?

Authors: P. Winzer, E. Massarczyk

Abstract:

Experts, enterprises and operators expect that the bandwidth request will increase up to rates of 100 to 1,000 Mbps within several years. Therefore the most important question is which technology shall satisfy the future consumer broadband demands. Currently the consensus is, that the fiber technology has the best technical characteristics to achieve such the high bandwidth rates. But fiber technology is so far very cost-intensive and resource consuming. To avoid these investments, operators are concentrating to upgrade the existing copper and hybrid fiber coax infrastructures. This work presents a comparison of the copper and fiber technologies including an overview about the current German broadband market. Both technologies are reviewed in the terms of demand, willingness to pay and economic efficiency in connection with the technical characteristics.

Keywords: Broadband customer demand, fiber development, G.fast, Vectoring, willingness to payfor broadband services

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1830 A Survey on the Requirements of University Course Timetabling

Authors: Nurul Liyana Abdul Aziz, Nur Aidya Hanum Aizam

Abstract:

Course timetabling problems occur every semester in a university which includes the allocation of resources (subjects, lecturers and students) to a number of fixed rooms and timeslots. The assignment is carried out in a way such that there are no conflicts within rooms, students and lecturers, as well as fulfilling a range of constraints. The constraints consist of rules and policies set up by the universities as well as lecturers’ and students’ preferences of courses to be allocated in specific timeslots. This paper specifically focuses on the preferences of the course timetabling problem in one of the public universities in Malaysia. The demands will be considered into our existing mathematical model to make it more generalized and can be used widely. We have distributed questionnaires to a number of lecturers and students of the university to investigate their demands and preferences for their desired course timetable. We classify the preferences thus converting them to construct one mathematical model that can produce such timetable.

Keywords: University course timetabling problem, integer programming, preferences, constraints.

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1829 The Prospective Assessment of Zero-Energy Dwellings

Authors: Jovana Dj. Jovanovic, Svetlana M. Stevovic

Abstract:

The highest priority of so called, projected passive houses is to meet the appropriate energy demand. Every single material and layer which is injected into a dwelling has a certain energy quantity stored. The passive houses include optimized insulation levels with minimal thermal bridges, minimum of air leakage through the building, utilization of passive solar and internal gains, and good circulation of air which leans on mechanical ventilation system. The focus of this paper is on passive house features, benefits and targets, their feasibility and energy demands which are set up during each project. Numerous passive house-standards outline the very significant role of zero-energy dwellings towards the modern label of sustainable development. It is clear that the performance of both built and existing housing stock must be addressed if the population across the world sets out the energy objectives. This scientific article examines passive house features since the many passive house cases are launched.

Keywords: Benefits, energy demands, passive houses, sustainable development.

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1828 Advertisement Effectiveness: A Review and Research Agenda

Authors: Prateek Maheshwari, Nitin Seth, Anoop Kumar Gupta

Abstract:

In today’s highly competitive, dynamic and technology driven business circumstances, marketers are under steady pressure to deliver the best. Organizations are continuously improving and upgrading themselves to meet customer expectations and demands. Technology has not only changed the way in which business is done in modern times but has also transformed the way to reach out to target audience. Marketers have identified most recent media options to communicate and convince potential customers. Numerous scholars have studied the research domain of advertising and have tried to recognize different measures of advertisement effectiveness in context of various media. The objective of this paper is to critically review accessible literature on advertisement effectiveness in context of varied advertising media, recognize major gaps in the literature and identify future research prospects on the basis of critical analysis of literature.

Keywords: Advertising, Advertising Media, Competition, Effectiveness Measurement.

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1827 Consumer Product Demand Forecasting based on Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Machine

Authors: Karin Kandananond

Abstract:

The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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1826 A Survey of Field Programmable Gate Array-Based Convolutional Neural Network Accelerators

Authors: Wei Zhang

Abstract:

With the rapid development of deep learning, neural network and deep learning algorithms play a significant role in various practical applications. Due to the high accuracy and good performance, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) especially have become a research hot spot in the past few years. However, the size of the networks becomes increasingly large scale due to the demands of the practical applications, which poses a significant challenge to construct a high-performance implementation of deep learning neural networks. Meanwhile, many of these application scenarios also have strict requirements on the performance and low-power consumption of hardware devices. Therefore, it is particularly critical to choose a moderate computing platform for hardware acceleration of CNNs. This article aimed to survey the recent advance in Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)-based acceleration of CNNs. Various designs and implementations of the accelerator based on FPGA under different devices and network models are overviewed, and the versions of Graphic Processing Units (GPUs), Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) and Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) are compared to present our own critical analysis and comments. Finally, we give a discussion on different perspectives of these acceleration and optimization methods on FPGA platforms to further explore the opportunities and challenges for future research. More helpfully, we give a prospect for future development of the FPGA-based accelerator.

Keywords: Deep learning, field programmable gate array, FPGA, hardware acceleration, convolutional neural networks, CNN.

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1825 Sustainability of Urban Cemeteries and the Transformation of Malay Burial Practices in Kuala Lumpur Metropolitan Region

Authors: Mohamed Afla, Mohamad Reza

Abstract:

Land shortage for burials is one of many issues that emerge out of accelerated urban growth in most developing Asian cities, including Kuala Lumpur. Despite actions taken by the federal government and local authorities in addressing this issue, there is no strategic solution being formulated. Apart from making provisions for land to be developed as new cemeteries, the future plan is merely to allocate reserve land to accommodate the increasing demands of burial grounds around the city. This paper examines problems that arise from the traditional practices of Malay funerary as well as an insight to current urban practices in managing Muslim burial spaces around Kuala Lumpur metropolitan region. This paper will also provide some solutions through design approach that can be applied to counter the existing issues.

Keywords: Kuala Lumpur metropolitan region, Malay burial practices, sustainable development, urban cemeteries.

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1824 System Concept for Low Analog Complexity and High-IF Superposition Heterodyne Receivers

Authors: Marko Mailand, Hans-Joachim Jentschel

Abstract:

For today-s and future wireless communications applications, more and more data traffic has to be transmitted with growing speed and quality demands. The analog front-end of any mobile device has to cope with very hard specifications regardless which transmission standard has to be supported. State-of-the-art analog front-end implementations are reaching the limit of technical feasibility. For that reason, alternative front-end architectures could support a continuing development of mobile communications e.g., six-port-based front-ends [1], [2]. In this article we propose an analog front-end with high intermediate frequency and which utilizes additive mixing instead of multiplicative mixing. The system architecture is presented and several spurious effects as well as their influence on the system dimensioning are discussed. Furthermore, several issues concerning the technical feasibility are provided and some simulation results are discussed which show the principle functionality of the proposed superposition heterodyne receiver.

Keywords: receivers, analog front-end, heterodyning, self-mixing.

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1823 Estimation of Seismic Deformation Demands of Tall Buildings with Symmetric Setbacks

Authors: A. Alirezaei, S. Vahdani

Abstract:

This study estimates the seismic demands of tall buildings with central symmetric setbacks by using nonlinear time history analysis. Three setback structures, all 60-story high with setback in three levels, are used for evaluation. The effects of irregularities occurred by setback are evaluated by determination of global-drift, story-displacement and story drift. Story-displacement is modified by roof displacement and first story displacement and story drift is modified by global drift. All results are calculated at the center of mass and in x and y direction. Also the absolute values of these quantities are determined. The results show that increasing of vertical irregularities increases the global drift of the structure and enlarges the deformations in the height of the structure. It is also observed that the effects of geometry irregularity in the seismic deformations of setback structures are higher than those of mass irregularity.

Keywords: Deformation demand, drift, setback, tall building.

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