Search results for: Chance

Authors: Roman V. Yampolskiy

Abstract:

Games can be classified as games of skill, games of chance or otherwise be classified as mixed. This paper deals with the topic of scientifically classifying mixed games as more reliant on elements of chance or elements of skill and ways to scientifically measure the amount of skill involved. This is predominantly useful for classification of games as legal or illegal in deferent jurisdictions based on the local gaming laws. We propose a novel measure of skill to chance ratio called the Game Skill Measure (GSM) and utilize it to calculate the skill component of a popular variant of Poker.

Keywords: Chance, Game, Skill, Luck.

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Authors: G. Mesfin, M. Shuhaimi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a new optimization techniques for the optimization a gas processing plant uncertain feed and product flows. The problem is first formulated using a continuous linear deterministic approach. Subsequently, the single and joint chance constraint models for steady state process with timedependent uncertainties have been developed. The solution approach is based on converting the probabilistic problems into their equivalent deterministic form and solved at different confidence levels Case study for a real plant operation has been used to effectively implement the proposed model. The optimization results indicate that prior decision has to be made for in-operating plant under uncertain feed and product flows by satisfying all the constraints at 95% confidence level for single chance constrained and 85% confidence level for joint chance constrained optimizations cases.

Keywords: Butane, Feed composition, LPG, Productspecification, Propane.

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Authors: A. Ben Yaghlane, M. N. Azaiez, M. Mrad

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We investigate the large scale of networks in the context of network survivability under attack. We use appropriate techniques to evaluate and the attacker-based- and the defenderbased- network survivability. The attacker is unaware of the operated links by the defender. Each attacked link has some pre-specified probability to be disconnected. The defender choice is so that to maximize the chance of successfully sending the flow to the destination node. The attacker however will select the cut-set with the highest chance to be disabled in order to partition the network. Moreover, we extend the problem to the case of selecting the best p paths to operate by the defender and the best k cut-sets to target by the attacker, for arbitrary integers p,k>1. We investigate some variations of the problem and suggest polynomial-time solutions.

Keywords: Defense/attack strategies, large scale, networks, partitioning a network.

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Authors: Mehdi Basikhasteh, Mohamad A. Movafaghpour

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This paper explores university course timetabling problem. There are several characteristics that make scheduling and timetabling problems particularly difficult to solve: they have huge search spaces, they are often highly constrained, they require sophisticated solution representation schemes, and they usually require very time-consuming fitness evaluation routines. Thus standard evolutionary algorithms lack of efficiency to deal with them. In this paper we have proposed a memetic algorithm that incorporates the problem specific knowledge such that most of chromosomes generated are decoded into feasible solutions. Generating vast amount of feasible chromosomes makes the progress of search process possible in a time efficient manner. Experimental results exhibit the advantages of the developed Hybrid Genetic Algorithm than the standard Genetic Algorithm.

Keywords: University Course Timetabling, Memetic Algorithm, Biased Chance Assignment, Optimization.

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Authors: Wided GuezGuez, Nahla Ben Amor, Khaled Mellouli

Abstract:

Influence diagrams (IDs) are one of the most commonly used graphical decision models for reasoning under uncertainty. The quantification of IDs which consists in defining conditional probabilities for chance nodes and utility functions for value nodes is not always obvious. In fact, decision makers cannot always provide exact numerical values and in some cases, it is more easier for them to specify qualitative preference orders. This work proposes an adaptation of standard IDs to the qualitative framework based on possibility theory.

Keywords: decision making, influence diagrams, qualitative utility, possibility theory.

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Authors: Sehyun Cho, Heasook Park

Abstract:

These days MANET is attracting much attention as they are expected to gratefully influence communication between wireless nodes. Along with this great strength, there is much more chance of leave and being attacked by a malicious node. Due to this reason much attention is given to the security and the private issue in MANET. A lot of research in MANET has been doing. In this paper we present the overview of MANET, the security issues of MANET, IP configuration in MANET, the solution to puzzle out the security issues and the simulation of the proposal idea. We add the method to figure out the malicious nodes so that we can prevent the attack from them. Nodes exchange the information about nodes to prevent DAD attack. We can get 30% better performance than the previous MANETConf.

Keywords: MANETConf, DAD, Attacker, DDOS

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Authors: Mohamed Mounir Tellache, Hiroyuki Kambara, Yasuharu Koike, Makoto Miyakoshi, Natsue Yoshimura

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This study explores the practicality of using electroencephalographic (EEG) independent components to predict eight-direction finger movements in pseudo-real-time. Six healthy participants with individual-head MRI images performed finger movements in eight directions with two different arm configurations. The analysis was performed in two stages. The first stage consisted of using independent component analysis (ICA) to separate the signals representing brain activity from non-brain activity signals and to obtain the unmixing matrix. The resulting independent components (ICs) were checked, and those reflecting brain-activity were selected. Finally, the time series of the selected ICs were used to predict eight finger-movement directions using Sparse Logistic Regression (SLR). The second stage consisted of using the previously obtained unmixing matrix, the selected ICs, and the model obtained by applying SLR to classify a different EEG dataset. This method was applied to two different settings, namely the single-participant level and the group-level. For the single-participant level, the EEG dataset used in the first stage and the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the same participant. For the group-level, the EEG datasets used in the first stage were constructed by temporally concatenating each combination without repetition of the EEG datasets of five participants out of six, whereas the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the remaining participants. The average test classification results across datasets (mean ± S.D.) were 38.62 ± 8.36% for the single-participant, which was significantly higher than the chance level (12.50 ± 0.01%), and 27.26 ± 4.39% for the group-level which was also significantly higher than the chance level (12.49% ± 0.01%). The classification accuracy within [–45°, 45°] of the true direction is 70.03 ± 8.14% for single-participant and 62.63 ± 6.07% for group-level which may be promising for some real-life applications. Clustering and contribution analyses further revealed the brain regions involved in finger movement and the temporal aspect of their contribution to the classification. These results showed the possibility of using the ICA-based method in combination with other methods to build a real-time system to control prostheses.

Keywords: Brain-computer interface, BCI, electroencephalography, EEG, finger motion decoding, independent component analysis, pseudo-real-time motion decoding.

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Authors: M. Glomski, M. Lopes

Abstract:

Seemingly simple probabilities in the m-player game bingo have never been calculated. These probabilities include expected game length and the expected number of winners on a given turn. The difficulty in probabilistic analysis lies in the subtle interdependence among the m-many bingo game cards in play. In this paper, the game i got it!, a bingo variant, is considered. This variation provides enough weakening of the inter-player dependence to allow probabilistic analysis not possible for traditional bingo. The probability of winning in exactly k turns is calculated for a one-player game. Given a game of m-many players, the expected game length and tie probability are calculated. With these calculations, the game-s interesting payout scheme is considered.

Keywords: Conditional probability, games of chance, npersongames, probability theory.

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Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

The government and community have raised their awareness of the benefits of water reuse. Deforestation has a significant effect to climate change as it causes the drying out of the tropical rainforest and hence increases the chance of natural threaten the storage and supply of clean water. This paper focuses on discussion of the relationship of the natural water collection system, afforestation and country parks towards environmental sustainability and circular economy, with a case study of water conservation policy and strategy in Hong Kong and Singapore for further research.

Keywords: Afforestation, environmental sustainability, water conservation, circular economy, climate change.

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Authors: S. B. Liu, K. M. Ng, H. L. Ong

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This paper presents a new heuristic algorithm for the classical symmetric traveling salesman problem (TSP). The idea of the algorithm is to cut a TSP tour into overlapped blocks and then each block is improved separately. It is conjectured that the chance of improving a good solution by moving a node to a position far away from its original one is small. By doing intensive search in each block, it is possible to further improve a TSP tour that cannot be improved by other local search methods. To test the performance of the proposed algorithm, computational experiments are carried out based on benchmark problem instances. The computational results show that algorithm proposed in this paper is efficient for solving the TSPs.

Keywords: Local search, overlapped neighborhood, travelingsalesman problem.

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Authors: Seongmin Yim

Abstract:

The Korean government has applied preliminary feasibility study for new and huge R&D programs since 2008.The study is carried out from the viewpoints of technology, policy, and Economics. Then integrate the separate analysis and finally arrive at a definite result; whether a program is feasible or unfeasible, This paper describes the concept and method of the feasibility analysis focused on technological viability assessment for technical analysis. It consists of technology trend assessment and technology level assessment. Through the analysis, we can determine the chance of schedule delay or cost overrun occurring in the proposed plan.

Keywords: Preliminary Feasibility Study, Technological viability, Technology Trend Assessment, Technology Level Assessment

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Authors: Pradip Kundu, Samarjit Kar, Manoranjan Maiti

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In this paper, some practical solid transportation models are formulated considering per trip capacity of each type of conveyances with crisp and rough unit transportation costs. This is applicable for the system in which full vehicles, e.g. trucks, rail coaches are to be booked for transportation of products so that transportation cost is determined on the full of the conveyances. The models with unit transportation costs as rough variables are transformed into deterministic forms using rough chance constrained programming with the help of trust measure. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed models in crisp environment as well as with unit transportation costs as rough variables.

Keywords: Solid transportation problem, Rough set, Rough variable, Trust measure.

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Authors: Behrouz Fathi-Vajargah, Sara Ghasemalipour

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This paper studies a random fuzzy queueing system that the interarrival times of customers arriving at the server and the service times are independent and identically distributed random fuzzy variables. We match the random fuzzy queueing system with the random fuzzy alternating renewal process and we do not use from α-pessimistic and α-optimistic values to estimate the average chance of the event ”random fuzzy queueing system is busy at time t”, we employ the fuzzy simulation method in practical applications. Some theorem is proved and finally we solve a numerical example with fuzzy simulation method.

Keywords: Random fuzzy variables, Fuzzy simulation, Queueing system, Interarrival times.

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Authors: K. Piórkowska

Abstract:

The overarching aim of the paper is to incorporate the micro-foundations perspective in strategic management and offering possibilities to bridge the macro–micro divide, to review the concept of habits, as well as to propose research findings and directions in terms of further exploring the habit construct and its impact on higher epistemological level phenomena (for instance organizational routines, which is a domain inherently multilevel in nature). To realize this aim, the following sections have been developed: (1) habits’ origins, (2) habits – cognitive constellations, (3) interrelationships between habits and mental representations, intentions, (4) habits and organizational routines, and (5) habits and routines linkages with adaptation. The conclusions that have been made support recent and current studies linking the level of individual heterogeneous agents with the level of macro (organizational) outcomes.

Keywords: Behaviorism, habits, micro-foundations, routines.

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Authors: Amirhossein Asadabadi, Amir Anvar

Abstract:

Small satellites have become increasingly popular recently as a means of providing educational institutes with the chance to design, construct, and test their spacecraft from beginning to the possible launch due to the low launching cost. This approach is remarkably cost saving because of the weight and size reduction of such satellites. Weight reduction could be realised by utilising electromagnetic coils solely, instead of different types of actuators. This paper describes the restrictions of using only “Electromagnetic" actuation for 3D stabilisation and how to make the magnetorquer based attitude control feasible using Fuzzy Logic Control (FLC). The design is developed to stabilize the spacecraft against gravity gradient disturbances with a three-axis stabilizing capability.

Keywords: Fuzzy, Attitude Control, Small Satellite, Fuzzy Logic Control, Electromagnetic, Magnetic Control.

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Authors: Hussam Elias, Ninovic Perez, Holger Hirsch

Abstract:

With ever-increasing use of equipment, device or more generally any electrical or electronic system, the chance of Electromagnetic incompatibility incidents has considerably increased which demands more attention to ensure the possible risks of these technologies. Therefore, complying with certain Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) rules and not overtaking an acceptable level of radiated emissions are utmost importance for the diffusion of electronic products. In this paper, developed measure tool and a convolutional neural network were used to propose a method to reduce the required time to carry out the final measurement phase of Electromagnetic interference (EMI) measurement according to the norm EN 55032 by predicting the radiated emission and determining the height of the antenna that meets the maximum radiation value.

Keywords: Antenna height, Convolutional Neural Network, Electromagnetic Compatibility, Mean Absolute Error, position error.

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Authors: D. Wrzecionkowska

Abstract:

Mass media campaigns against obesity are often designed to impact large audiences. This usually means that their audience is defined based on general demographic characteristics like age, gender, occupation etc., not taking into account psychographics like behavior, motivations, wants, etc. Using psychographics, as the base for the audience segmentation, is a common practice in case of successful campaigns, as it allows developing more relevant messages. It also serves a purpose of identifying key segments, those that generate the best return on investment. For a health campaign, that would be segments that have the best chance of being converted into healthy lifestyle at the lowest cost. This paper presents the limitations of the demographic targeting, based on the findings from the reception study of IMSS (Mexican Social Security Institute) antiobesity TV commercials and proposes mothers as the first level of segmentation, in the process of identifying the key segment for these campaigns.

Keywords: Anti-obesity campaigns, mothers, segmentation, targeting.

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Authors: M. Kowalski, M. Kastek, M. Szustakowski

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Multispectral screening systems are becoming more popular because of their very interesting properties and applications. One of the most significant applications of multispectral screening systems is prevention of terrorist attacks. There are many kinds of threats and many methods of detection. Visual detection of objects hidden under clothing of a person is one of the most challenging problems of threats detection. There are various solutions of the problem; however, the most effective utilize multispectral surveillance imagers. The development of imaging devices and exploration of new spectral bands is a chance to introduce new equipment for assuring public safety. We investigate the possibility of long lasting detection of potentially dangerous objects covered with various types of clothing. In the article we present the results of comparative studies of passive imaging in three spectrums – visible, infrared and terahertz.

Keywords: Infrared, image processing, object detection, screening camera, terahertz.

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Authors: Bibhya Sharma, Jito Vanualailai, Jai Raj

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This paper proposes a new obstacle and collision avoidance control laws for a three-dimensional swarm of boids. The swarm exhibit collective emergent behaviors whilst avoiding the obstacles in the workspace. While flocking, animals group up in order to do various tasks and even a greater chance of evading predators. A generalized algorithms for attraction to the centroid, inter-individual swarm avoidance and obstacle avoidance is designed in this paper. We present a set of new continuous time-invariant velocity control laws is presented which is formulated via the Lyapunov-based control scheme. The control laws proposed in this paper also ensures practical stability of the system. The effectiveness of the proposed control laws is demonstrated via computer simulations

 

Keywords: Lyapunov-based Control Scheme, Motion planning, Practical stability, Swarm.

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Authors: Siriporn Meenanan

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to investigate the attitude of Thai students towards the Thai series "Hormones the Series Season 2". This study was conducted in the quantitative research, and the questionnaires were used to collect data from 400 people of the sample group. Descriptive statistics were used in data analysis. The findings reveal that most participants have positive comments regarding the series. They strongly agreed that the series reflects on the way of life and problems of teenagers in Thailand. Hence, the participants believe that if adults have a chance to watch the series, they will have the better understanding of the teenagers. In addition, the participants also agreed that the contents of the play are appropriate and satisfiable as the contents of “Hormones the Series Season 2” will raise awareness among the teens and use it as a guide to prevent problems that might happen during their teenage life.

Keywords: Content analysis, attitude, Thai series, Hormones the series.

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Authors: M. Alauddin, M. M. Hossain, M. N. Uddin, M. E. Haque

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An optimal design of a spur is the first requirement to make it sustainable and function properly. In view of that, a thorough understanding to the hydro- and morpho-dynamics due to spurs is essential. This paper presents a literature review on the effect of spurs to obtain the most recent design criteria. Perpendicular and upstream aligned impermeable spurs have large disturbances to flow and less stability because of strong vortices and associated scour. Downstream aligned spurs minimize scour holes, but there is a chance of strong return current which could be controlled allowing flow through them. A series arrangement of spurs is important to have the desired results with a special care for the first one. Several equations have been presented in the paper for predicting the scour depth. But, they have to be used carefully. Different flow environments developed by spurs are favorable for various aquatic species. However, it is important to maintain almost a stable flow condition providing stable spurs.

Keywords: Bed topography, flow pattern, scour, spur.

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Authors: Peter A. Bibby

Abstract:

Research has suggested that implicit learning tasks may rely on episodic processing to generate above chance performance on the standard classification tasks. The current research examines the invariant features task (McGeorge and Burton, 1990) and argues that such episodic processing is indeed important. The results of the experiment suggest that both rejection and similarity strategies are used by participants in this task to simultaneously reject unfamiliar items and to accept (falsely) familiar items. Primarily these decisions are based on the presence of low or high frequency goal based features of the stimuli presented in the incidental learning phase. It is proposed that a goal based analysis of the incidental learning task provides a simple step in understanding which features of the episodic processing are most important for explaining the match between incidental, implicit learning and test performance.

Keywords: Episodic processing, incidental learning, implicitlearning, invariant learning.

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Authors: Wen-Lung Huang, Shih-Pin Chen

Abstract:

This paper investigates the optimization problem of multi-product aggregate production planning (APP) with fuzzy data. From a comprehensive viewpoint of conserving the fuzziness of input information, this paper proposes a method that can completely describe the membership function of the performance measure. The idea is based on the well-known Zadeh-s extension principle which plays an important role in fuzzy theory. In the proposed solution procedure, a pair of mathematical programs parameterized by possibility level a is formulated to calculate the bounds of the optimal performance measure at a . Then the membership function of the optimal performance measure is constructed by enumerating different values of a . Solutions obtained from the proposed method contain more information, and can offer more chance to achieve the feasible disaggregate plan. This is helpful to the decision-maker in practical applications.

Keywords: fuzzy data, aggregate production planning, membership function, parametric programming

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Authors: Mitsuyuki Kawakami, Kimihiro Yamanaka

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The top-heavy demographic of low birth-rate and longer lifespan is a growing social problem, and one of its expected effects will be a shortage of young workers and a growing reliance on a workforce of middle-aged and older people. However, the environment of today's industrial workplace is not particularly suited to middle-aged and older workers, one notable problem being temperature control. Higher temperatures can cause health problems such as heat stroke, and the number of cases increases sharply in people over 65. Moreover, in conditions above 33°C, older people can develop circulatory system disorders, and also have a higher chance of suffering a fatal heart attack. We therefore propose a new method for controlling temperature in the indoor workplace. In this study two different verification experiments were conducted, with the proposed temperature control method being tested in cargo containers and conventional houses. The method's effectiveness was apparent in measurements of temperature and electricity consumption

Keywords: CO2 reduction, Energy saving, Temperature control

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Authors: Gupta Rajesh, Paudel Sagar, Sharma Utkarsh, Singh Amit Kumar

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Thermal stratification has drawn much attention because of the malfunctions at various nuclear plants in U.S.A that raised significant safety concerns. The concerns due to this phenomenon relate to thermal stresses in branch pipes connected to the reactor coolant system piping. This stress limits the lifetime of the piping system, and even leading to penetrating cracks. To assess origin of valve damage in the pipeline, it is essential to determine the effect of turbulence penetration on valve leakage; since stratified flow is generally generated by turbulent penetration or valve leakage. As a result, we concluded with the help of coupled fluent-structural analysis that the pipe with less turbulence has less chance of failure there by requiring less maintenance.

Keywords: Reactor coolant system, thermal stratification, turbulent penetration, coupled fluent-structural analysis, Von Mises stress.

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Authors: Vakhtang Charaia

Abstract:

The article focuses on the role of FDI in Georgia’s economic development for the last decade. To attract as much FDI as possible a proper investment climate should be on the place - institutional, policy and regulatory environment. Well developed investment climate is the chance and motivation for both, local economy and foreign companies, to generate maximum income, create new work places and improve the quality of life. FDI trend is one of the best indicators of country’s economic sustainability and its attractiveness. Especially for small and developing countries, the amount of FDI matters, therefore most of such countries are trying to compete with each other through improving their investment climate according to different world famous indexes. As a result of impressive reforms since 2003, Georgian economy was benefited with large invasion of FDI, however the level of per capita GDP is still law in comparison to Eastern European countries and it should be improved. The main idea of the paper is to show a real linkage between FDI and employment ration, on the case of Georgian economy.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Sustainable Development, Corruption, Employment/Unemployment.

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Authors: Shannon M. Chance, Pamela L. Eddy, Gavin Duffy, Brian Bowe, Jen Harvey

Abstract:

Educational institutions often implement policies with the intention of influencing how learning and teaching occur. Generally, such policies are not as effective as their makers would like; changing the behavior of third-level teachers proves difficult. Nevertheless, a policy instituted in 2006 at the Dublin Institute of Technology has met with success: each newly hired faculty member must have a post-graduate qualification in “Learning and Teaching" or successfully complete one within the first two years of employment. The intention is to build teachers- knowledge about student-centered pedagogies and their capacity to implement them. As a result of this policy (and associated programs that support it), positive outcomes are readily apparent. Individual teachers who have completed the programs have implemented significant change at the course and program levels. This paper introduces the policy, identifies outcomes in relation to existing theory, describes research underway, and pinpoints areas where organizational learning has occurred.

Keywords: Faculty Development, Institutional Policy, Learning and Teaching, Postgraduate Qualification, Professional Development.

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Authors: Hirich A., Choukr-allah R., Jacobsen S-E., Hamdy A., El youssfi L., El Omari H.

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An experiment was performed in the south of Morocco in order to evaluate the effect of deficit irrigation by treated wastewater on chickpea production. We applied six irrigation treatments on a local variety of chickpea by supplying alternatively 50 or 100% of ETm in a completely randomized design. We found a highly significant difference between treatments in terms of biomass production. Drought stress during the vegetative period showed highest yield with 6.5 t/ha which was more than the yield obtained for the control (4.9 t/ha). The optimal crop stage in which deficit irrigation can be applied is the vegetative growth stage, as the crop has a chance to develop its root system, to be able to cover the plant needs for water and nutrient supply during the rest of cycle, and non stress conditions during the flowering and seed filling stages allow the plant to optimize its photosynthesis and carbon translocation, therefore increase its productivity.

Keywords: chickpea, crop stages, drought stress, water productivity

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

The zero inflated models are usually used in modeling count data with excess zeros where the existence of the excess zeros could be structural zeros or zeros which occur by chance. These type of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences which involve sex and health dental epidemiology. The most popular zero inflated models used by many researchers are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial models. In addition, zero inflated generalized Poisson and zero inflated double Poisson models are also discussed and found in some literature. Recently zero inflated inverse trinomial model and zero inflated strict arcsine models are advocated and proven to serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed count data caused by excessive zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to review some related literature and provide a variety of examples from different disciplines in the application of zero inflated models. Different model selection methods used in model comparison are discussed.

Keywords: Overdispersed count data, model selection methods, likelihood ratio, AIC, BIC.

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Authors: George C. Yao, Chao-Yu Tu, Wei-Chung Chen, Fung-Wen Kuo, Yu-Shan Chang

Abstract:

Building structures are subjected to both horizontal and vertical ground motions during earthquakes, but only the horizontal ground motion has been extensively studied and considered in design. Most of the prevailing seismic codes assume the vertical component to be 1/2 to 2/3 of the horizontal one. In order to understand the building responses from vertical ground motions, many earthquakes records are studied in this paper. System identification methods (ARX Model) are used to analyze the strong motions and to find out the characteristics of the vertical amplification factors and the natural frequencies of buildings. Analysis results show that the vertical amplification factors for high-rise buildings and low-rise building are 1.78 and 2.52 respectively, and the average vertical amplification factor of all buildings is about 2. The relationship between the vertical natural frequency and building height was regressed to a suggested formula in this study. The result points out an important message; the taller the building is, the greater chance of resonance of vertical vibration on the building will be.

Keywords: Vertical ground motion, vertical amplification factor, natural frequency, component.

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