Search results for: Artificial Immune Systems

Authors: Oguz Ustun, Erdal Bekiroglu

Abstract:

In the present study, position estimation of switched reluctance motor (SRM) has been achieved on the basis of the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The ANNs can estimate the rotor position without using an extra rotor position sensor by measuring the phase flux linkages and phase currents. Flux linkage-phase current-rotor position data set and supervised backpropagation learning algorithm are used in training of the ANN based position estimator. A 4-phase SRM have been used to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed position estimator. Simulation results show that the proposed position estimator gives precise and accurate position estimations for both under the low and high level reference speeds of the SRM

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, modeling andsimulation, position observer, switched reluctance motor.

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Authors: S. Qaedi, S. Seyedtabaii

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Non-Destructive evaluation of in-service power transformer condition is necessary for avoiding catastrophic failures. Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) is one of the important methods. Traditional, statistical and intelligent DGA approaches have been adopted for accurate classification of incipient fault sources. Unfortunately, there are not often enough faulty patterns required for sufficient training of intelligent systems. By bootstrapping the shortcoming is expected to be alleviated and algorithms with better classification success rates to be obtained. In this paper the performance of an artificial neural network, K-Nearest Neighbour and support vector machine methods using bootstrapped data are detailed and shown that while the success rate of the ANN algorithms improves remarkably, the outcome of the others do not benefit so much from the provided enlarged data space. For assessment, two databases are employed: IEC TC10 and a dataset collected from reported data in papers. High average test success rate well exhibits the remarkable outcome.

Keywords: Dissolved gas analysis, Transformer incipient fault, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine (SVM), KNearest Neighbor (KNN)

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Authors: Karin Kandananond

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The nature of consumer products causes the difficulty in forecasting the future demands and the accuracy of the forecasts significantly affects the overall performance of the supply chain system. In this study, two data mining methods, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were utilized to predict the demand of consumer products. The training data used was the actual demand of six different products from a consumer product company in Thailand. The results indicated that SVM had a better forecast quality (in term of MAPE) than ANN in every category of products. Moreover, another important finding was the margin difference of MAPE from these two methods was significantly high when the data was highly correlated.

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Bullwhip effect, Consumer products, Demand forecasting, Supply chain, Support vector machine (SVM).

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldah, Hanan Farag

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Parallel Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP) is a multi-objective and multi constrains NP-optimization problem. Traditional Artificial Intelligence techniques have been widely used; however, they could be trapped into the local minimum without reaching the optimum solution. Thus, we propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) model with Discrete Breeding Swarm (DBS) added to traditional AI to avoid this trapping. This model is applied in the cost minimization of the Car Sequencing and Operator Allocation (CSOA) problem. The practical experiment shows that our model outperforms other techniques in cost minimization.

Keywords: Parallel Job Shop Scheduling Problem, Artificial Intelligence, Discrete Breeding Swarm, Car Sequencing and Operator Allocation, cost minimization.

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Authors: Sutisa Khempaka, Supattra Okrathok, Laddawan Hokking, Buntita Thukhanon, Wittawat Molee

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This study was conducted to investigate the optimum levels of glutamine (Gln) supplementation in broiler diets. A total of 32 one-day-old male chicks with initial body weight 41.5 g were segregated into 4 groups (8 chicks per group) and subsequently distributed to individual cages. Feed and water were provided ad libitum for 21 days. Four dietary treatments were as follows: control and supplemented Gln at 1, 2 and 3%, respectively. The results found that the addition Gln had no negative effects on dry matter, organic matter, ash digestibility or nitrogen retention. Birds fed with 1% Gln had significantly higher villi wide and villi height : crypt depth ratio in duodenum than the control chicks and 2 and 3% Gln chicks. It is suggested that the addition of Gln at 1% indicated a beneficial effect on improving small intestinal morphology, in addition Gln may stimulate immune organ development of broiler chickens.

Keywords: broiler chicken, digestibility, gastrointestinal tract glutamine, glutamine

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Authors: M. Safa, S. Samarasinghe

Abstract:

An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to model the energy consumption of wheat production. This study was conducted over 35,300 hectares of irrigated and dry land wheat fields in Canterbury in the 2007-2008 harvest year.1 In this study several direct and indirect factors have been used to create an artificial neural networks model to predict energy use in wheat production. The final model can predict energy consumption by using farm condition (size of wheat area and number paddocks), farmers- social properties (education), and energy inputs (N and P use, fungicide consumption, seed consumption, and irrigation frequency), it can also predict energy use in Canterbury wheat farms with error margin of ±7% (± 1600 MJ/ha).

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Canterbury, energy consumption, modelling, New Zealand, wheat.

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Authors: Chun-Yao Lee , Yi-Xing Shen , Jung-Cheng Cheng , Chih-Wen Chang, Yi-Yin Li

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This paper proposes the method combining artificial neural network with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to implement the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) by controlling the rotor speed of the wind generator. With the measurements of wind speed, rotor speed of wind generator and output power, the artificial neural network can be trained and the wind speed can be estimated. The proposed control system in this paper provides a manner for searching the maximum output power of wind generator even under the conditions of varying wind speed and load impedance.

Keywords: maximum power point tracking, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Josefina Bengoechea, Alex Bell

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Higher education, with its brick-and-mortar facilities and credits-based on hours of study, was developed to serve the needs of a national, industrial, analogue economy. However, the ongoing process of globalization on the one hand, and the emergence of ever-changing needs of employers on the other hand, make this type of process-based education obsolete, and exclusive to students who can afford to pay a full-time tuition and dedicate 4 years of their lives exclusively to study. The creative destruction brought about by new technologies in the 21st century will not only reconfigure the labour market, as millions of jobs will be lost to Artificial Intelligence. The purpose of this paper is to consider if the implementation of technology is the solution to the problems faced in higher education. The paper builds upon a constructivist approach, combining a literature review and research on key publications.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, employability, labour market, new technology in higher education.

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Authors: JiEun Jeong, Se-Won Kang, Hee-Ju Hwang, Sung-Hwa Chae, Sang-Haeng Choi, Hong-SeogPark, YeonSoo Han, Bok-Reul Lee, Dae-Hyun Seog, Yong Seok Lee

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Tofurther advance research on immune-related genes from T. molitor, we constructed acDNA library and analyzed expressed sequence taq (EST) sequences from 1,056 clones. After removing vector sequence and quality checkingthrough thePhred program (trim_alt 0.05 (P-score>20), 1039 sequences were generated. The average length of insert was 792 bp. In addition, we identified 162 clusters, 167 contigs and 391 contigs after clustering and assembling process using a TGICL package. EST sequences were searchedagainst NCBI nr database by local BLAST (blastx, EKeywords: EST, Innate immunity, Tenebriomolitor

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Authors: H. Soleimanimehr, M. J. Nategh , S. Amini

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Development of artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of aluminum workpieces' surface roughness in ultrasonicvibration assisted turning (UAT) has been the subject of the present study. Tool wear as the main cause of surface roughness was also investigated. ANN was trained through experimental data obtained on the basis of full factorial design of experiments. Various influential machining parameters were taken into consideration. It was illustrated that a multilayer perceptron neural network could efficiently model the surface roughness as the response of the network, with an error less than ten percent. The performance of the trained network was verified by further experiments. The results of UAT were compared with the results of conventional turning experiments carried out with similar machining parameters except for the vibration amplitude whence considerable reduction was observed in the built-up edge and the surface roughness.

Keywords: Aluminum, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), BuiltupEdge, Surface Roughness, Tool Wear, Ultrasonic VibrationAssisted Turning (UAT).

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Authors: Arash Taheri, Meysam Mohammadi-Amin, Seyed Hossein Moosavy

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Medical applications are among the most impactful areas of microrobotics. The ultimate goal of medical microrobots is to reach currently inaccessible areas of the human body and carry out a host of complex operations such as minimally invasive surgery (MIS), highly localized drug delivery, and screening for diseases at their very early stages. Miniature, safe and efficient propulsion systems hold the key to maturing this technology but they pose significant challenges. A new type of propulsion developed recently, uses multi-flagella architecture inspired by the motility mechanism of prokaryotic microorganisms. There is a lack of efficient methods for designing this type of propulsion system. The goal of this paper is to overcome the lack and this way, a numerical strategy is proposed to design multi-flagella propulsion systems. The strategy is based on the implementation of the regularized stokeslet and rotlet theory, RFT theory and new approach of “local corrected velocity". The effects of shape parameters and angular velocities of each flagellum on overall flow field and on the robot net forces and moments are considered. Then a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network is designed and employed to adjust the angular velocities of the motors for propulsion control. The proposed method applied successfully on a sample configuration and useful demonstrative results is obtained.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Biomimetic Microrobots, Flagellar Propulsion, Swimming Robots.

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Authors: P.-W. Tsai, W.-L. Hong, C.-W. Chen, C.-Y. Chen

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In this paper, we present a neural-network (NN) based approach to represent a nonlinear Tagagi-Sugeno (T-S) system. A linear differential inclusion (LDI) state-space representation is utilized to deal with the NN models. Taking advantage of the LDI representation, the stability conditions and controller design are derived for a class of nonlinear structural systems. Moreover, the concept of utilizing the Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization (PPSO) algorithm to solve the common P matrix under the stability criteria is given in this paper.

Keywords: Lyapunov Stability, Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization, Linear Differential Inclusion, Artificial Intelligence.

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Authors: S. Boonpoke, B. Marungsri

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This paper presents the effectiveness of artificial intelligent technique to apply for pattern recognition and classification of Partial Discharge (PD). Characteristics of PD signal for pattern recognition and classification are computed from the relation of the voltage phase angle, the discharge magnitude and the repeated existing of partial discharges by using statistical and fractal methods. The simplified fuzzy ARTMAP (SFAM) is used for pattern recognition and classification as artificial intelligent technique. PDs quantities, 13 parameters from statistical method and fractal method results, are inputted to Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP to train system for pattern recognition and classification. The results confirm the effectiveness of purpose technique.

Keywords: Partial discharges, PD Pattern recognition, PDClassification, Artificial intelligent, Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP

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Authors: Elnaz Afshari, Siamak Najarian, Naser Simforoosh, Siamak Hajizadeh Farkoush

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Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) is now being widely used as a preferred choice for various types of operations. The need to detect various tactile properties, justifies the key role of tactile sensing that is currently missing in MIS. In this regard, Laparoscopy is one of the methods of minimally invasive surgery that can be used in kidney stone removal surgeries. At this moment, determination of the exact location of stone during laparoscopy is one of the limitations of this method that no scientific solution has been found for so far. Artificial tactile sensing is a new method for obtaining the characteristics of a hard object embedded in a soft tissue. Artificial palpation is an important application of artificial tactile sensing that can be used in different types of surgeries. In this study, a new method for determining the exact location of stone during laparoscopy is presented. In the present study, the effects of stone existence on the surface of kidney were investigated using conceptual 3D model of kidney containing a simulated stone. Having imitated palpation and modeled it conceptually, indications of stone existence that appear on the surface of kidney were determined. A number of different cases were created and solved by the software and using stress distribution contours and stress graphs, it is illustrated that the created stress patterns on the surface of kidney show not only the existence of stone inside, but also its exact location. So three-dimensional analysis leads to a novel method of predicting the exact location of stone and can be directly applied to the incorporation of tactile sensing in artificial palpation, helping surgeons in non-invasive procedures.

Keywords: Kidney Stone, Laparoscopic Surgery, Artificial Tactile Sensing, Finite Element Method.

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Authors: Saman M. Abdulla, Najla B. Al-Dabagh, Omar Zakaria

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The aim of this article is to explain how features of attacks could be extracted from the packets. It also explains how vectors could be built and then applied to the input of any analysis stage. For analyzing, the work deploys the Feedforward-Back propagation neural network to act as misuse intrusion detection system. It uses ten types if attacks as example for training and testing the neural network. It explains how the packets are analyzed to extract features. The work shows how selecting the right features, building correct vectors and how correct identification of the training methods with nodes- number in hidden layer of any neural network affecting the accuracy of system. In addition, the work shows how to get values of optimal weights and use them to initialize the Artificial Neural Network.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Attack Features, MisuseIntrusion Detection System, Training Parameters.

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Authors: M. H. Hussain, I. Musirin, A. F. Abidin, S. R. A. Rahim

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This paper presents the implementation of Artificial Bees Colony (ABC) algorithm in solving Directional OverCurrent Relays (DOCRs) coordination problem for near-end faults occurring in fixed network topology. The coordination optimization of DOCRs is formulated as linear programming (LP) problem. The objective function is introduced to minimize the operating time of the associated relay which depends on the time multiplier setting. The proposed technique is to taken as a technique for comparison purpose in order to highlight its superiority. The proposed algorithms have been tested successfully on 8 bus test system. The simulation results demonstrated that the ABC algorithm which has been proved to have good search ability is capable in dealing with constraint optimization problems.

Keywords: Artificial bees colony, directional overcurrent relay coordination problem, relay settings, time multiplier setting.

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Authors: Edward Guillén, Jeisson Sánchez, Carlos Omar Ramos

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In recent years, a wide variety of applications are developed with Support Vector Machines -SVM- methods and Artificial Neural Networks -ANN-. In general, these methods depend on intrusion knowledge databases such as KDD99, ISCX, and CAIDA among others. New classes of detectors are generated by machine learning techniques, trained and tested over network databases. Thereafter, detectors are employed to detect anomalies in network communication scenarios according to user’s connections behavior. The first detector based on training dataset is deployed in different real-world networks with mobile and non-mobile devices to analyze the performance and accuracy over static detection. The vulnerabilities are based on previous work in telemedicine apps that were developed on the research group. This paper presents the differences on detections results between some network scenarios by applying traditional detectors deployed with artificial neural networks and support vector machines.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, back-propagation neural networks, network intrusion detection systems, support vector machines.

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Authors: Felix Dobslaw

Abstract:

In this paper, a framework for the simplification and standardization of metaheuristic related parameter-tuning by applying a four phase methodology, utilizing Design of Experiments and Artificial Neural Networks, is presented. Metaheuristics are multipurpose problem solvers that are utilized on computational optimization problems for which no efficient problem specific algorithm exist. Their successful application to concrete problems requires the finding of a good initial parameter setting, which is a tedious and time consuming task. Recent research reveals the lack of approach when it comes to this so called parameter-tuning process. In the majority of publications, researchers do have a weak motivation for their respective choices, if any. Because initial parameter settings have a significant impact on the solutions quality, this course of action could lead to suboptimal experimental results, and thereby a fraudulent basis for the drawing of conclusions.

Keywords: Parameter-Tuning, Metaheuristics, Design of Experiments, Artificial Neural Networks.

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Authors: W. Payakcho, J. Grasaesom, S. Thong-om, B. Marungsri

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This paper presents the experimental results of silicone rubber housing material for 24kV lightning arrester under artificial accelerated ageing test based on IEC 61109 specifications. Specimens having inclined and alternated shed made of HTV silicone rubber with ATH content and having leakage distance 625 mm were tested continuously 1000 hrs in artificial salt fog chamber. After 1000 hrs of salt fog ageing test, obviously surface erosion was observed on trunk between the upper large shed and the lower small shed near the energized end. Decreasing in hydrophobicity and increasing in hardness were measured on tested specimen comparing with new specimen. Chemical analysis by ATR-FTIR confirmed the observation results.

Keywords: Accelerated ageing test, Silicone rubber housing material, salt fog test, Lightning Arrester, Ageing

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Authors: Badr M. Alshammari, T. Guesmi

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This study presents a modified version of the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm by including a local search technique for solving the non-convex economic power dispatch problem. The local search step is incorporated at the end of each iteration. Total system losses, valve-point loading effects and prohibited operating zones have been incorporated in the problem formulation. Thus, the problem becomes highly nonlinear and with discontinuous objective function. The proposed technique is validated using an IEEE benchmark system with ten thermal units. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed optimization algorithm has better convergence characteristics in comparison with the original ABC algorithm.

Keywords: Economic power dispatch, artificial bee colony, valve-point loading effects, prohibited operating zones.

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Authors: A. Greco, N. Mammone, F.C. Morabito, M.Versaci

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This paper is mainly concerned with the application of a novel technique of data interpretation for classifying measurements of plasma columns in Tokamak reactors for nuclear fusion applications. The proposed method exploits several concepts derived from soft computing theory. In particular, Artificial Neural Networks and Multi-Class Support Vector Machines have been exploited to classify magnetic variables useful to determine shape and position of the plasma with a reduced computational complexity. The proposed technique is used to analyze simulated databases of plasma equilibria based on ITER geometry configuration. As well as demonstrating the successful recovery of scalar equilibrium parameters, we show that the technique can yield practical advantages compared with earlier methods.

Keywords: Tokamak, Classification, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: J. F. Pollo Gaspary, F. Peron Gaspary, E. M. Simão, R. Concatto Beltrame, G. Orengo de Oliveira, M. S. Ristow Ferreira, F. Sartori Thies, I. F. Minello, F. dos Santos de Oliveira

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Background: The immune system has evolved several mechanisms to protect the host against cancer, and it has now been suggested that the expansion of its functions may prevent tumor growth and control the symptoms of cancer patients. Two techniques, ozone therapy and pulsed electromagnetic fields (PEMF), are independently associated with an increase in the immune system functions and they maybe help palliative care of patients in these conditions. Case Report: A patient with rectal adenocarcinoma with metastases decides to interrupt the clinical chemotherapy protocol due to refractoriness and side effects. As a palliative care alternative treatment it is suggested to the patient the use of ozone therapy associated with PEMF techniques. Results: The patient reports an improvement in well-being, in autonomy and in pain control. Imaging tests confirm a pause in tumor growth despite more than 60 days without using classic treatment. These results associated with palliative care alternative treatment stimulate the return to the chemotherapy protocol. Discussion: This case illustrates that these two techniques can contribute to the control of tumor growth and refractory symptoms, such as pain, probably by enhancing the immune system. Conclusions: The potential use of the combination of these two therapies, ozone therapy and PEMF therapy, can contribute to palliation of cancer patients, alone or in combination with pharmacological therapies. The conduct of future investigations on this paradigm can elucidate how much these techniques contribute to the survival and well-being of these patients.

Keywords: Cancer, complementary and alternative medicine, ozone therapy, palliative care, PEMF Therapy.

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Authors: Mogari I. Rapoo, Diteboho Xaba

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This paper examines the forecasting performance of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models with the published exchange rate obtained from South African Reserve Bank (SARB). ARIMA is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting for the past decades. ARIMA and ANN models are often compared and literature revealed mixed results in terms of forecasting performance. The study used the MSE and MAE to measure the forecasting performance of the models. The empirical results obtained reveal the superiority of ARIMA model over ANN model. The findings further resolve and clarify the contradiction reported in literature over the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models.

Keywords: ARIMA, artificial neural networks models, error metrics, exchange rates.

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Authors: Nebojsa B. Raicevic, Teodoros S. Prokic, Vladan Golubovic

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Recently, bianisotropic media again received increasing importance in electromagnetic theory because of advances in material science which enable the manufacturing of complex bianisotropic materials. By using Maxwell's equations and corresponding boundary conditions, the electromagnetic field distribution in bianisotropic solenoid coils is determined and the influence of the bianisotropic behaviour of coil to the impedance and Q-factor is considered. Bianisotropic media are the largest class of linear media which is able to describe the macroscopic material properties of artificial dielectrics, artificial magnetics, artificial chiral materials, left-handed materials, metamaterials, and other composite materials. Several special cases of coils, filled with complex substance, have been analyzed. Results obtained by using the analytical approach are compared with values calculated by numerical methods, especially by our new hybrid EEM/BEM method and FEM.

Keywords: Bianisotropic media, impedance and Q-factor, Maxwell`s equations, hybrid EEM/BEM method.

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Authors: Sakir Tasdemir, Mustafa Altin, Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Ismail Saritas, Sadiye Didem Boztepe Erkis, Selma Tasdemir

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Artificial intelligence applications are commonly used in industry in many fields in parallel with the developments in the computer technology. In this study, a fire room was prepared for the resistance of wooden construction elements and with the mechanism here, the experiments of polished materials were carried out. By utilizing from the experimental data, an artificial neural network (ANN) was modelled in order to evaluate the final cross sections of the wooden samples remaining from the fire. In modelling, experimental data obtained from the fire room were used. In the developed system, the first weight of samples (ws-gr), preliminary cross-section (pcs-mm2), fire time (ft-minute), and fire temperature (t-oC) as input parameters and final cross-section (fcs-mm2) as output parameter were taken. When the results obtained from ANN and experimental data are compared after making statistical analyses, the data of two groups are determined to be coherent and seen to have no meaning difference between them. As a result, it is seen that ANN can be safely used in determining cross sections of wooden materials after fire and it prevents many disadvantages.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, final cross-section, fire retardant polishes, fire safety, wood resistance.

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Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

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Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: Customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN.

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Authors: O. Nouali, A. Saidi, H. Chahrat, A. Krinah, B. Toursel

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This article describes a Web pages automatic filtering system. It is an open and dynamic system based on multi agents architecture. This system is built up by a set of agents having each a quite precise filtering task of to carry out (filtering process broken up into several elementary treatments working each one a partial solution). New criteria can be added to the system without stopping its execution or modifying its environment. We want to show applicability and adaptability of the multi-agents approach to the networks information automatic filtering. In practice, most of existing filtering systems are based on modular conception approaches which are limited to centralized applications which role is to resolve static data flow problems. Web pages filtering systems are characterized by a data flow which varies dynamically.

Keywords: Agent, Distributed Artificial Intelligence, Multiagents System, Web pages filtering.

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Authors: Seunghee Park, Junkyeong Kim, Eun-Seok Shin, Sang-Hun Han

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In this study, two kinds of nondestructive evaluation  (NDE) techniques (rebound hardness and ultrasonic pulse velocity  methods) are investigated for the effective maintenance of underwater  concrete structures. A new methodology to estimate the underwater  concrete strengths more effectively, named “artificial neural network  (ANN) – based concrete strength estimation with the combination of  rebound hardness and ultrasonic pulse velocity methods” is proposed  and verified throughout a series of experimental works.

 

Keywords: Underwater Concrete, Rebound Hardness, Schmidt hammer, Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity, Ultrasonic Sensor, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN.

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Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis

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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.

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Authors: Shahab Kavehkar, Mohammad Ali Ghorbani, Valeriy Khokhlov, Afshin Ashrafzadeh, Sabereh Darbandi

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Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering and management. For example, water level affects groundwater tables in low-lying coastal areas, as well as hydrological regimes of some coastal rivers. Then, a reliable prediction of sea-level variations is required in coastal engineering and hydrologic studies. During the past two decades, the approaches based on the Genetic Programming (GP) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were developed. In the present study, the GP is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels. The measurements from a single tide gauge at Urmia Lake, Northwest Iran, were used to train and validate the GP approach for the period from January 1997 to July 2008. Statistics, the root mean square error and correlation coefficient, are used to verify model by comparing with a corresponding outputs from Artificial Neural Network model. The results show that both these artificial intelligence methodologies are satisfactory and can be considered as alternatives to the conventional harmonic analysis.

Keywords: Water-Level variation, forecasting, artificial neural networks, genetic programming, comparative analysis.

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