Search results for: Trend Test.

Authors: Arnab Bandyopadhyay, Anubhab Pal, Subhajit Debnath

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Climate change is a cumulative change in weather patterns over a period of time. Trend analysis using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test may help to determine the existence and magnitude of any statistically significant trend in the climatic data. Another index called Sen slope may be used to quantify the magnitude of such trends. A toolbar extension to ESRI ArcGIS named Arc Trends has been developed in this study for performing the above mentioned tasks. To study the temporal trend of meteorological parameters, 32 years (1971-2002) monthly meteorological data were collected for 133 selected stations over different agro-ecological regions of India. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be rising. A significant increasing trend in the relative humidity and a consistent significant decreasing trend in the wind speed all over the country were found. However, a general increase in rainfall was not found in recent years.

Keywords: Temporal trend, climate change, ArcGIS, Mann- Kendall test, Sen slope

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Authors: Fereshteh Mahdavi, Maizatul Akmar Ismail, Noorhidawati Abdullah

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Currently WWW is the first solution for scholars in finding information. But, analyzing and interpreting this volume of information will lead to researchers overload in pursuing their research. Trend detection in scientific publication retrieval systems helps scholars to find relevant, new and popular special areas by visualizing the trend of input topic. However, there are few researches on trend detection in scientific corpora while their proposed models do not appear to be suitable. Previous works lack of an appropriate representation scheme for research topics. This paper describes a method that combines Semantic Web and ontology to support advance search functions such as trend detection in the context of scholarly Semantic Web system (SSWeb).

Keywords: Trend, Semi-Automatic Trend Detection, Ontology, Semantic Trend Detection.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: Trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya, Turkey.

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Authors: Hua Cao, Laurent Peyrodie, Olivier Agnani, Cécile Donzé

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Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a disease which affects the central nervous system and causes balance problem. In clinical, this disorder is usually evaluated using static posturography. Some linear or nonlinear measures, extracted from the posturographic data (i.e. center of pressure, COP) recorded during a balance test, has been used to analyze postural control of MS patients. In this study, the trend (TREND) and the sample entropy (SampEn), two nonlinear parameters were chosen to investigate their relationships with the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score. 40 volunteers with different EDSS scores participated in our experiments with eyes open (EO) and closed (EC). TREND and 2 types of SampEn (SampEn1 and SampEn2) were calculated for each combined COP’s position signal. The results have shown that TREND had a weak negative correlation to EDSS while SampEn2 had a strong positive correlation to EDSS. Compared to TREND and SampEn1, SampEn2 showed a better significant correlation to EDSS and an ability to discriminate the MS patients in the EC case. In addition, the outcome of the study suggests that the multi-dimensional nonlinear analysis could provide some information about the impact of disability progression in MS on dynamics of the COP data.

Keywords: Balance, multiple sclerosis, nonlinear analysis, postural sway.

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Authors: Loke Mun Sei

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Software testing has become a mandatory process in assuring the software product quality. Hence, test management is needed in order to manage the test activities conducted in the software test life cycle. This paper discusses on the challenges faced in the software test life cycle, and how the test processes and test activities, mainly on test cases creation, test execution, and test reporting is being managed and automated using several test automation tools, i.e. Jira, Robot Framework, and Jenkins.

Keywords: Test automation tools, test case, test execution, test reporting.

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Authors: Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar

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Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.

Keywords: Climate shift, Rainfall trend, temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope estimator, Eastern Ganga Canal command.

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation.

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Authors: A.L. Seetharam, B.L. Udaya Simha

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The Bangalore City is facing the acute problem of pollution in the atmosphere due to the heavy increase in the traffic and developmental activities in recent years. The present study is an attempt in the direction to assess trend of the ambient air quality status of three stations, viz., AMCO Batteries Factory, Mysore Road, GRAPHITE INDIA FACTORY, KHB Industrial Area, Whitefield and Ananda Rao Circle, Gandhinagar with respect to some of the major criteria pollutants such as Total Suspended particular matter (SPM), Oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and Oxides of sulphur (SO2). The sites are representative of various kinds of growths viz., commercial, residential and industrial, prevailing in Bangalore, which are contributing to air pollution. The concentration of Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) at all locations showed a falling trend due to use of refined petrol and diesel in the recent years. The concentration of Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) showed an increasing trend but was within the permissible limits. The concentration of the Suspended particular matter (SPM) showed the mixed trend. The correlation between model and observed values is found to vary from 0.4 to 0.7 for SO2, 0.45 to 0.65 for NOx and 0.4 to 0.6 for SPM. About 80% of data is observed to fall within the error band of ±50%. Forecast test for the best fit models showed the same trend as actual values in most of the cases. However, the deviation observed in few cases could be attributed to change in quality of petro products, increase in the volume of traffic, introduction of LPG as fuel in many types of automobiles, poor condition of roads, prevailing meteorological conditions, etc.

Keywords: Bangalore, urban air pollution, time series analysis.

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Authors: Evan Hajani, Ataur Rahman, Khaled Haddad

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Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in many different ways such as increase in evaporation and rainfalls. There have been growing interests among researchers to identify the nature of trends in historical rainfall data in many different parts of the world. This paper examines the trends in annual maximum rainfall data from 30 stations in New South Wales, Australia by using two non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR). Rainfall data were analyzed for fifteen different durations ranging from 6 min to 3 days. It is found that the sub-hourly durations (6, 12, 18, 24, 30 and 48 minutes) show statistically significant positive (upward) trends whereas longer duration (subdaily and daily) events generally show a statistically significant negative (downward) trend. It is also found that the MK test and SR test provide notably different results for some rainfall event durations considered in this study. Since shorter duration sub-hourly rainfall events show positive trends at many stations, the design rainfall data based on stationary frequency analysis for these durations need to be adjusted to account for the impact of climate change. These shorter durations are more relevant to many urban development projects based on smaller catchments having a much shorter response time.

Keywords: Climate change, Mann-Kendall test, Spearman’s Rho test, trends, design rainfall.

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: Fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility.

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Authors: Hsu-Hao Tsai, Jiann-Min Yang

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The analysis is mainly concentrating on the knowledge management literatures productivity trend which subjects as “knowledge management" in SSCI database. The purpose what the analysis will propose is to summarize the trend information for knowledge management researchers since core knowledge will be concentrated in core categories. The result indicated that the literature productivity which topic as “knowledge management" is still increasing extremely and will demonstrate the trend by different categories including author, country/territory, institution name, document type, language, publication year, and subject area. Focus on the right categories, you will catch the core research information. This implies that the phenomenon "success breeds success" is more common in higher quality publications.

Keywords: Knowledge Management, SSCI, Bibliometric, Lotka's Law

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar, Tahereh Soltani Gord faramarzi, Parisa Safaripour Chafi, Abdol-Reza Amani

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Temperature, humidity and precipitation in an area, are parameters proved influential in the climate of that area, and one should recognize them so that he can determine the climate of that area. Climate changes are of primary importance in climatology, and in recent years, have been of great concern to researchers and even politicians and organizations, for they can play an important role in social, political and economic activities. Even though the real cause of climate changes or their stability is not yet fully recognized, they are a matter of concern to researchers and their importance for countries has prompted them to investigate climate changes in different levels, especially in regional, national and continental level. This issue has less been investigated in our country. However, in recent years, there have been some researches and conferences on climate changes. This study is also in line with such researches and tries to investigate and analyze the trends of climate changes (temperature and precipitation) in Sefid-roud (the name of a river) basin. Three parameters of mean annual precipitation, temperature, and maximum and minimum temperatures in 36 synoptic and climatology stations in a statistical period of 49 years (1956-2005) in the stations of Sefid-roud basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained by data analysis show that climate changes are short term and have a trend. The analysis of mean temperature revealed that changes have a significantly rising trend, besides the precipitation has a significantly falling trend.

Keywords: Trend, Climate changes, Sefid-roud, Mann-Kendall

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: Financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction.

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, E. Khavaninzadeh, M. Ghorbani Tochaee

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Direct shear test is widely used in soil mechanics experiment to determine the shear strength parameters of granular soils. For analysis of soil stability problems such as bearing capacity, slope stability and lateral pressure on soil retaining structures, the shear strength parameters must be known well. In the present study, shear strength parameters are determined in silty-sand mixtures. Direct shear tests are performed on 161 Firoozkooh sand with different silt content at a relative density of 70% in three vertical stress of 100, 150, and 200 kPa. Wet tamping method is used for soil sample preparation, and the results include diagrams of shear stress versus shear deformation and sample height changes against shear deformation. Accordingly, in different silt percent, the shear strength parameters of the soil such as internal friction angle and dilation angle are calculated and compared. According to the results, when the sample contains up to 10% silt, peak shear strength and internal friction angle have an upward trend. However, if the sample contains 10% to 50% of silt a downward trend is seen in peak shear strength and internal friction angle.

Keywords: Shear strength parameters, direct shear test, silty sand, shear stress, shear deformation.

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Authors: Jheng-Long Wu, Pei-Chann Chang, Yi-Fang Pan

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This research focus on developing a new segmentation method for improving forecasting model which is call trend based segmentation method (TBSM). Generally, the piece-wise linear representation (PLR) can finds some of pair of trading points is well for time series data, but in the complicated stock environment it is not well for stock forecasting because of the stock has more trends of trading. If we consider the trends of trading in stock price for the trading signal which it will improve the precision of forecasting model. Therefore, a TBSM with SVR model used to detect the trading points for various stocks of Taiwanese and America under different trend tendencies. The experimental results show our trading system is more profitable and can be implemented in real time of stock market

Keywords: Trend based segmentation method, support vector machine, turning detection, stock forecasting.

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

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The aim of the paper is to analyze the characteristics of winter fog in terms of its trend and spatial-temporal variability over Indo-Gangetic plains. The study reveals that during last four and half decades (1971-2015), an alarming increasing trend in fog frequency has been observed during the winter months of December and January over the study area. The frequency of fog has increased by 118.4% during the peak winter months of December and January. It has also been observed that on an average central part of IGP has 66.29% fog days followed by west IGP with 41.94% fog days. Further, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition and Mann-Kendall variation analysis are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of winter fog. The findings have significant implications for the further research of fog over IGP and formulate robust strategies to adapt the fog variability and mitigate its effects. The decision by Delhi Government to implement odd-even scheme to restrict the use of private vehicles in order to reduce pollution and improve quality of air may result in increasing the alarming increasing trend of fog over Delhi and its surrounding areas regions of IGP.

Keywords: Fog, climatology, spatial variability, temporal variability, empirical orthogonal function, visibility, Mann-Kendall test, variation point.

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Authors: Youn-Sung Kim, Jin-Ho Jo, Mi-Sung Kim, Jae-Kun Lee

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Accelerated life cycle test is applied to various products or components in order to reduce the time of life cycle test in industry. It must be considered for many test conditions according to the product characteristics for the test and the selection of acceleration parameter is especially very important. We have carried out the general life cycle test and the accelerated life cycle test by applying the acceleration factor (AF) considering the characteristics of brushless DC (BLDC) motor for washing machine. The final purpose of this study is to verify the validity by analyzing the results of the general life cycle test and the accelerated life cycle test. It will make it possible to reduce the life test time through the reasonable accelerated life cycle test.

Keywords: Accelerated life cycle test, reliability test, motor for washing machine, brushless dc motor test.

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Authors: Anocha Kimkong

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The purpose of this research was to study the behavior trend factors of consumers to roasted coffee at the petrol station on the route of Rangsit to Nakhon Nayok. The research drew upon data collected from the regular consumers of roasted coffee stands. The majority of respondents was male, 33-39 years old, and holding a bachelor degree. The majority of respondents considered themselves private business proprietors or entrepreneurs and had a monthly income of between 10,000-16,000 baht. The regular coffee consumers spent a minimum coffee expense of between 45 and 300 baht per day. These consumers also displayed good attitude and good motivation which can be ranked as very high. From the hypothesis testing of the behavior trend for the roasted coffee consumers in repurchasing coffee and recommended the coffee to others, the findings revealed that it had a significant correlation. Moreover, the overall attitude towards the marketing mix factors also had a significant correlation with the behavior trend consumers.

Keywords: Factors Related, Consuming Behaviour, Coffee Consumers.

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Authors: Husna Hasan, Norfatin Salam, Mohd Bakri Adam

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Extreme temperature of several stations in Malaysia is modelled by fitting the monthly maximum to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test suggests a non-stationary model. Two models are considered for stations with trend and the Likelihood Ratio test is used to determine the best-fitting model. Results show that half of the stations favour a model which is linear for the location parameters. The return level is the level of events (maximum temperature) which is expected to be exceeded once, on average, in a given number of years, is obtained.

Keywords: Extreme temperature, extreme value, return level.

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Authors: Xiaohuan Li, Wangmin Yi, Xinghui Wu

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In order to verify the performance of lunar lander structure, landing-impact test is urgently needed. And the test equipment is necessary for the test. The functions and the key points of the equipment are presented to satisfy the requirements of the test, and the design scheme is proposed. The composition, the major function and the critical parts’ design of the equipment are introduced. By the load test of releasing device and single-beam hoist, and the compatibility test of landing-impact testing system, the rationality and reliability of the equipment is proved.

Keywords: Landing-impact test, lunar lander, releasing device, test equipment.

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Authors: Kanyapat U. Tapao

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the operation strategy strategies and public relations trend for public relations strategies development in public television station in Thailand. This study is a qualitative approach by indent interview from the 6 key informants that are managers of Voice TV and Thairath TV Channel. The results showed that both TV stations have to do research before making a release on the operation strategy policy such as a slogan, segmentation, integrated marketing communication and PR activity and also in term of Public Relations trend are including online media, online content and online training before opening the station and start promoting. By the way, we found the PR strategy for both TV station should be including application on mobile, online content, CRM activity, online banner, special event, and brand ambassador in order to bring a very reliable way.

Keywords: Operation strategy, public relations trend, public relations strategies development, online banner.

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Authors: M. Derakhshanfar, B. Minaei-Bidgoli

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Spatial trends are one of the valuable patterns in geo databases. They play an important role in data analysis and knowledge discovery from spatial data. A spatial trend is a regular change of one or more non spatial attributes when spatially moving away from a start object. Spatial trend detection is a graph search problem therefore heuristic methods can be good solution. Artificial immune system (AIS) is a special method for searching and optimizing. AIS is a novel evolutionary paradigm inspired by the biological immune system. The models based on immune system principles, such as the clonal selection theory, the immune network model or the negative selection algorithm, have been finding increasing applications in fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we develop a novel immunological algorithm based on clonal selection algorithm (CSA) for spatial trend detection. We are created neighborhood graph and neighborhood path, then select spatial trends that their affinity is high for antibody. In an evolutionary process with artificial immune algorithm, affinity of low trends is increased with mutation until stop condition is satisfied.

Keywords: Spatial Data Mining, Spatial Trend Detection, Heuristic Methods, Artificial Immune System, Clonal Selection Algorithm (CSA)

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Authors: Abdelkader Magdy, Magdy Saeb, A. Baith Mohamed, Ahmed Khadragi

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The Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA) which is a doublestranded helix of nucleotides consists of: Adenine (A), Cytosine (C), Guanine (G) and Thymine (T). In this work, we convert this genetic code into an equivalent digital signal representation. Applying a wavelet transform, such as Haar wavelet, we will be able to extract details that are not so clear in the original genetic code. We compare between different organisms using the results of the Haar wavelet Transform. This is achieved by using the trend part of the signal since the trend part bears the most energy of the digital signal representation. Consequently, we will be able to quantitatively reconstruct different biological families.

Keywords: Digital Signal, DNA, Fluctuation part, Haar wavelet, Nucleotides, Trend part.

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Authors: Seongmin Yim

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The Korean government has applied preliminary feasibility study for new and huge R&D programs since 2008.The study is carried out from the viewpoints of technology, policy, and Economics. Then integrate the separate analysis and finally arrive at a definite result; whether a program is feasible or unfeasible, This paper describes the concept and method of the feasibility analysis focused on technological viability assessment for technical analysis. It consists of technology trend assessment and technology level assessment. Through the analysis, we can determine the chance of schedule delay or cost overrun occurring in the proposed plan.

Keywords: Preliminary Feasibility Study, Technological viability, Technology Trend Assessment, Technology Level Assessment

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Authors: A.Gandomkar, F. Khorasanizadeh

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Tourism is a phenomenon respected by the human communities since a long time ago. It has been evoloving continually based on a variety of social and economic needs and with respect to increasingly development of communication and considerable increase of tourist-s number and resulted exchange income has attained much out come such as employment for the communities. or the purpose of tourism development in this zone suitable times and locations need to be specified in the zone for the tourist-s attendance. One of the most important needs of the tourists is the knowledge of climate conditions and suitable times for sightseeing. In this survey, the climate trend condition has been identified for attending the tourists in Isfahan province using the modified tourism climate index (TCI) as well as SPSS, GIS, excel, surfer softwares. This index evoluates systematically the climate conditions for tourism affairs and activities using the monthly maximum mean parameters of daily temperature, daily mean temperature, minimum relative humidity, daily mean relative humidity, precipitation (mm), total sunny hours, wind speed and dust. The results obtaind using kendal-s correlation test show that the months January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December are significant and have an increasing trend that indicates the best condition for attending the tourists. S, P, T mean , T max and dust are estimated from 1976-2005 and do kendal-s correlation test again to see which parameter has been effective. Based on the test, we also observed on the effective parameters that the rate of dust in February, March, April, May, June, July, August, October and November is decreasing and precipitation in September and January is increasing and also the radiation rate in May and August is increasing that indicate a better condition of convenience. Maximum temperature in June is also decreasing. Isfahan province has two spring and fall peaks and the best places for tourism are in the north and western areas.

Keywords: Climate, Tourism, Correlation Test, Tourism Climate Index, Isfahan Province

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Authors: S. Masteika, A.V. Rutkauskas, A. Tamosaitis

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The paper investigates downtrend algorithm and trading strategy based on chart pattern recognition and technical analysis in futures market. The proposed chart formation is a pattern with the lowest low in the middle and one higher low on each side. The contribution of this paper lies in the reinforcement of statements about the profitability of momentum trend trading strategies. Practical benefit of the research is a trading algorithm in falling markets and back-test analysis in futures markets. When based on daily data, the algorithm has generated positive results, especially when the market had downtrend period. Downtrend algorithm can be applied as a hedge strategy against possible sudden market crashes. The proposed strategy can be interesting for futures traders, hedge funds or scientific researchers performing technical or algorithmic market analysis based on momentum trend trading.

Keywords: trading algorithm, chart pattern, downtrend trading, futures market, hedging

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Authors: Masoud Saeedi, Shirin Rahimi Kazerooni, Vahid Parvaresh

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Validity is an overriding consideration in language testing. If a test score is intended for a particular purpose, this must be supported through empirical evidence. This article addresses the validity of a multiple-choice achievement test (MCT). The test is administered at the end of each semester to decide about students' mastery of a course in general English. To provide empirical evidence pertaining to the validity of this test, two criterion measures were used. In so doing, a Cloze test and a C-test which are reported to gauge general English proficiency were utilized. The results of analyses show that there is a statistically significant correlation among participants' scores on the MCT, Cloze, and Ctest. Drawing on the findings of the study, it can be cautiously deduced that these tests measure the same underlying trait. However, allowing for the limitations of using criterion measures to validate tests, we cannot make any absolute claim as to the validity of this MCT test.

Keywords: C-test, cloze test, multiple-choice test, validity argument.

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Authors: Supachai Supmak, Yachai Limpiyakorn

Abstract:

Mutation testing can be applied for the quality assessment of test cases. Prioritization of mutation test generation has been a critical element of the industry practice that would contribute to the evaluation of test cases. The industry generally delivers the product under the condition of time to the market and thus, inevitably sacrifices software testing tasks, even though many test cases are required for software verification. This paper presents an approach of applying a social network centrality measure, PageRank, to prioritize mutation test generation. The source code with the highest values of PageRank, will be focused first when developing their test cases as these modules are vulnerable for defects or anomalies which may cause the consequent defects in many other associated modules. Moreover, the approach would help identify the reducible test cases in the test suite, still maintaining the same criteria as the original number of test cases.

Keywords: Software testing, mutation test, network centrality measure, test case prioritization.

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Authors: Hei-Chia Wang, Wei-Pin Chiu

Abstract:

As research performance in academia is treated as one of indices for national competency, many countries devote much attention and resources to increasing their research performance. Understand the research trend is the basic step to improve the research performance. The goal of this research is to design an analysis system to evaluate research trends from analyzing data from different countries. In this paper, information system researches in Taiwan and other countries, including Asian countries and prominent countries represented by the Group of Eight (G8) is used as example. Our research found the trends are varied in different countries. Our research suggested that Taiwan-s scholars can pay more attention to interdisciplinary applications and try to increase their collaboration with other countries, in order to increase Taiwan's competency in the area of information science.

Keywords: Bibliometric analysis, research trend, scientometric analysis.

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Authors: Huaizhong Li, C.Peng Lam

Abstract:

State-based testing is frequently used in software testing. Test data generation is one of the key issues in software testing. A properly generated test suite may not only locate the errors in a software system, but also help in reducing the high cost associated with software testing. It is often desired that test data in the form of test sequences within a test suite can be automatically generated to achieve required test coverage. This paper proposes an Ant Colony Optimization approach to test data generation for the state-based software testing.

Keywords: Software testing, ant colony optimization, UML.

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