Search results for: mechanical quadrature methods

Authors: Bachir Belmadani, Rachid Taleb, Zinelaabidine Boudjema, Adil Yahdou

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Carrier-based methods have been used widely for switching of multilevel inverters due to their simplicity, flexibility and reduced computational requirements compared to space vector modulation (SVM). This paper focuses on Multicarrier Sinusoidal Pulse Width Modulation (MCSPWM) strategy for the three phase Five-Level Flying Capacitor Inverter (5LFCI). The inverter is simulated for Induction Motor (IM) load and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) for output waveforms is observed for different controlling schemes.

Keywords: Flying capacitor inverter, multicarrier sinusoidal pulse width modulation, space vector modulation, total harmonic distortion, induction motor.

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Authors: Ilija Plecas, Uranija Kozmidis-Luburic, Radojica Pesic

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The leaching rate of 137Cs from spent mix bead (anion and cation) exchange resins in a cement-bentonite matrix has been studied. Transport phenomena involved in the leaching of a radioactive material from a cement-bentonite matrix are investigated using three methods based on theoretical equations. These are: the diffusion equation for a plane source an equation for diffusion coupled to a firstorder equation and an empirical method employing a polynomial equation. The results presented in this paper are from a 25-year mortar and concrete testing project that will influence the design choices for radioactive waste packaging for a future Serbian radioactive waste disposal center.

Keywords: bentonite, cement , radioactive waste, composite, disposal, diffusion

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Authors: K. N. Dinesh Babu, R. Ramaprabha, V. Rajini, V. Nagarajan

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In this paper, various methods of providing restricted earth fault protection are discussed. The proper operation of high and low impedance Restricted Earth Fault (REF) protection for various applications has been discussed. The maloperation of a relay due to improper placement of CTs has been identified and a simple/unique solution has been proposed in this work with a case study. Moreover, it is found that the proper placement of CT in high impedance method will provide the same result with reduced CT. This methodology has been successfully implemented in Al Takreer refinery for a 2000 KVA transformer. The outcome of the paper may be included in IEEEC37.91 standard to give the proper guidance for protection engineers to sort out the issues related to mal functioning of REF relays.

Keywords: Relay maloperation, transformer, low impedance REF, MatLab, 64R, IEEE C37.91.

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Authors: A. Nassef, S. Samy, W. H. El Garaihy

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Equal channel angular pressing (ECAP) of commercial Al-Mg-Si alloy was conducted using two strain rates. The ECAP processing was conducted at room temperature and at 250°C. Route A was adopted up to a total number of four passes in the present work. Structural evolution of the aluminum alloy discs was investigated before and after ECAP processing using optical microscopy (OM). Following ECAP, simple compression tests and Vicker’s hardness were performed. OM micrographs showed that, the average grain size of the as-received Al-Mg-Si disc tends to be larger than the size of the ECAP processed discs. Moreover, significant difference in the grain morphologies of the as-received and processed discs was observed. Intensity of deformation was observed via the alignment of the Al-Mg-Si consolidated particles (grains) in the direction of shear, which increased with increasing the number of passes via ECAP. Increasing the number of passes up to 4 resulted in increasing the grains aspect ratio up to ~5. It was found that the pressing temperature has a significant influence on the microstructure, Hv-values, and compressive strength of the processed discs. Hardness measurements demonstrated that 1-pass resulted in increase of Hv-value by 42% compared to that of the as-received alloy. 4-passes of ECAP processing resulted in additional increase in the Hv-value. A similar trend was observed for the yield and compressive strength. Experimental data of the Hv-values demonstrated that there is a lack of any significant dependence on the processing strain rate.

Keywords: Al-Mg-Si alloy, Equal channel angular pressing, Grain refinement, Severe plastic deformation.

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Authors: Samrand Rashahmadi, Morteza Abbaszadeh, Sana Hoseyni, Raziyeh Alizadeh

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Design of a constant chord propeller is presented in this paper in order to reduce propeller-s design procedure-s costs. The design process was based on Lock and Goldstein-s techniques of propeller design and analysis. In order to calculate optimum chord of propeller, chord of a referential element is generalized as whole blades chord. The design outcome which named CS-X-1 is modeled & analyzed by CFD methods using K-ε: R.N.G turbulence model. Convergence of results of two codes proved that outcome results of design process are reliable. Design result is a two-blade propeller with a total diameter of 1.1 meter, radial velocity of 3000 R.P.M, efficiency above .75 and power coefficient near 1.05.

Keywords: Single rotating propeller, Design, C.F.D. test, constant chord

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Authors: Wang Chengcheng, Li Chuanri, Xu Fei, Guo Ying

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Aiming at most of the aviation products are facing the problem of fatigue fracture in vibration environment, we makes use of the testing result of a bracket, analysis for the structure with ANSYS-Workbench, predict the life of the bracket by different ways, and compared with the testing result. With the research on analysis methods, make an organic combination of simulation analysis and testing, Not only ensure the accuracy of simulation analysis and life predict, but also make a dynamic supervision of product life process, promote the application of finite element simulation analysis in engineering practice.

Keywords: Random vibration, finite element simulation, fatigue, frequency domain.

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Authors: K. Kamalanand, P. Mannar Jawahar

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Methods of contemporary mathematical physics such as chaos theory are useful for analyzing and understanding the behavior of complex biological and physiological systems. The three dimensional model of HIV/AIDS is the basis of active research since it provides a complete characterization of disease dynamics and the interaction of HIV-1 with the immune system. In this work, the behavior of the HIV system is analyzed using the three dimensional HIV model and a chaotic measure known as the Hurst exponent. Results demonstrate that Hurst exponents of CD4, CD8 cells and viral load vary nonlinearly with respect to variations in system parameters. Further, it was observed that the three dimensional HIV model can accommodate both persistent (H>0.5) and anti-persistent (H<0.5) dynamics of HIV states. In this paper, the objectives of the study, methodology and significant observations are presented in detail.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, mathematical model, chaos theory, Hurst exponent

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Authors: Weng Ming Chu

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When faced with stochastic networks with an uncertain duration for their activities, the securing of network completion time becomes problematical, not only because of the non-identical pdf of duration for each node, but also because of the interdependence of network paths. As evidenced by Adlakha & Kulkarni [1], many methods and algorithms have been put forward in attempt to resolve this issue, but most have encountered this same large-size network problem. Therefore, in this research, we focus on network reduction through a Series/Parallel combined mechanism. Our suggested algorithm, named the Activity Network Reduction Algorithm (ANRA), can efficiently transfer a large-size network into an S/P Irreducible Network (SPIN). SPIN can enhance stochastic network analysis, as well as serve as the judgment of symmetry for the Graph Theory.

Keywords: Series/Parallel network, Stochastic network, Network reduction, Interdictive Graph, Complexity Index.

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Authors: M. H. Kargarnovin, A. Mamandi

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This paper presents investigation effects of a sharp edged gust on aeroelastic behavior and time-domain response of a typical section model using Jones approximate aerodynamics for pure plunging motion. Flutter analysis has been done by using p and p-k methods developed for presented finite-state aerodynamic model for a typical section model (airfoil). Introduction of gust analysis as a linear set of ordinary differential equations in a simplified procedure has been carried out by using transformation into an eigenvalue problem.

Keywords: Aeroelastic response, jones approximation, pure plunging motion, sharp edged gust.

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Authors: Masrour Dowlatabadi, Jalil Shirazi

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In this paper, an improved edge detection algorithm based on fuzzy combination of mathematical morphology and wavelet transform is proposed. The combined method is proposed to overcome the limitation of wavelet based edge detection and mathematical morphology based edge detection in noisy images. Experimental results show superiority of the proposed method, as compared to the traditional Prewitt, wavelet based and morphology based edge detection methods. The proposed method is an effective edge detection method for noisy image and keeps clear and continuous edges.

Keywords: Edge detection, Wavelet transform, Mathematical morphology, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: E. S. Gower, M. O. J. Hawksford

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An algorithm for learning an overcomplete dictionary using a Cauchy mixture model for sparse decomposition of an underdetermined mixing system is introduced. The mixture density function is derived from a ratio sample of the observed mixture signals where 1) there are at least two but not necessarily more mixture signals observed, 2) the source signals are statistically independent and 3) the sources are sparse. The basis vectors of the dictionary are learned via the optimization of the location parameters of the Cauchy mixture components, which is shown to be more accurate and robust than the conventional data mining methods usually employed for this task. Using a well known sparse decomposition algorithm, we extract three speech signals from two mixtures based on the estimated dictionary. Further tests with additive Gaussian noise are used to demonstrate the proposed algorithm-s robustness to outliers.

Keywords: expectation-maximization, Pitman estimator, sparsedecomposition

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Authors: S. Nagheli, N. Samani, D. A. Barry

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In this paper, the velocity potential and stream function of capture zone for a well field in an aquifer bounded by two parallel streams with or without a uniform regional flow of any directions are presented. The well field includes any number of extraction or injection wells or a combination of both types with any pumping rates. To delineate the capture envelope, the potential and streamlines equations are derived by conformal mapping method. This method can help us to release constrains of other methods. The equations can be applied as useful tools to design in-situ groundwater remediation systems, to evaluate the surface–subsurface water interaction and to manage the water resources.

Keywords: Complex potential, conformal mapping, groundwater remediation, image well theory, Laplace’s equation, superposition principle.

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Authors: Omid A. Zargar

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Vibration analysis of screw compressors is one of the most challenging cases in preventive maintenance. This kind of equipment considered as vibration bad actor facilities in industrial plants. On line condition monitoring systems developed too much in recent years. The high frequency vibration of ball bearings, gears, male and female caused complex fast Fourier transform (FFT) and time wave form (TWF) in screw compressors. The male and female randomly are sent to balance shop for balancing operation. This kind of operation usually caused some bending in rotors during the process that could cause further machining in such equipment. This kind of machining operation increased the vibration analysis complexity beside some process characteristic abnormality like inlet and out let pressure and temperature. In this paper mechanical principal and different type of screw compressors explained. Besides, some new condition monitoring systems and techniques for screw compressors discussed. Finally, one of the common behavior of oil injected twin rotary screw compressors called hydraulic unbalance that usually occurred after machining operation of male or female and have some specific characteristics in FFT and TWF discussed in details through a case history related to Iran oil industries.

Keywords: Vibration analysis, twin screw compressor, oil injected screw compressor, time wave form (TWF), fast Fourier transform (FFT), Hydraulic unbalance and rotor unbalance.

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Authors: Gulshan Taj M. N. A., Anupam Chakrabarti, Vipul Prakash

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In the present investigation, free vibration of functionally graded material (FGM) skew plates under thermal environment is studied. Kinematics equations are based on the Reddy’s higher order shear deformation theory and a nine noded isoparametric Lagrangian element is adopted to mesh the plate geometry. The issue of C₁ continuity requirement related to the assumed displacement field has been circumvented effectively to develop C₀ finite element formulation. Effective mechanical properties of the constituents of the plate are considered to be as position and temperature dependent and assumed to vary in the thickness direction according to a simple power law distribution. The displacement components of a rectangular plate are mapped into skew plate geometry by means of suitable transformation rule. One dimensional Fourier heat conduction equation is used to ascertain the temperature profile of the plate along thickness direction. Influence of different parameters such as volume fraction index, boundary condition, aspect ratio, thickness ratio and temperature field on frequency parameter of the FGM skew plate is demonstrated by performing various examples and the related findings are discussed briefly. New results are generated for vibration of the FGM skew plate under thermal environment, for the first time, which may be implemented in the future research involving similar kind of problems.

Keywords: Functionally graded material, finite element method, higher order shear deformation theory, skew plate, thermal vibration.

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Authors: Randa I. Elanwar, Mohsen A. Rashwan, Samia A. Mashali

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The last two decades witnessed some advances in the development of an Arabic character recognition (CR) system. Arabic CR faces technical problems not encountered in any other language that make Arabic CR systems achieve relatively low accuracy and retards establishing them as market products. We propose the basic stages towards a system that attacks the problem of recognizing online Arabic cursive handwriting. Rule-based methods are used to perform simultaneous segmentation and recognition of word portions in an unconstrained cursively handwritten document using dynamic programming. The output of these stages is in the form of a ranked list of the possible decisions. A new technique for text line separation is also used.

Keywords: Arabic handwriting, character recognition, cursive handwriting, on-line recognition.

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Authors: Jaromír Marek, Jakub Wiener, Yan Wang

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The main goal of this study was to find simple and industrially applicable production of ion exchangers based on nanofibrous polystyrene matrix and characterization of prepared material. Starting polystyrene nanofibers were sulfonated and crosslinked under appropriate conditions at the same time by sulfuric acid. Strongly acidic cation exchanger was obtained in such a way. The polymer matrix was made from polystyrene nanofibers prepared by Nanospider^TM technology.

Various types postpolymerization reactions and other methods of crosslinking were studied. Greatly different behavior between nano- and microsize materials was observed. The final nanofibrous material was characterized and compared to common granular ion exchangers and available microfibrous ion exchangers. The sorption properties of nanofibrous ion exchangers were compared with the granular ion exchangers. For nanofibrous ion exchangers of comparable ion exchange capacity was observed considerably faster adsorption kinetics.

Keywords: Electrospinning, ion exchangers, nanofibers, polystyrene.

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Authors: Lijiang Xiang, Shouming Zhong, Yucai Ding

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The problems of globally exponential stability and dissipativity analysis for static neural networks (NNs) with time delay is investigated in this paper. Some delay-dependent stability criteria are established for static NNs with time delay using the delay partitioning technique. In terms of this criteria, the delay-dependent sufficient condition is given to guarantee the dissipativity of static NNs with time delay. All the given results in this paper are not only dependent upon the time delay but also upon the number of delay partitions. Two numerical examples are used to show the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Globally exponential stability, Dissipativity, Static neural networks, Time delay.

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Authors: R. Ibrahim, M. Azmirruddin, M. Jabir, N. Johari, M. Muhamad, A. R. A. Talib

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Inconel718 has been widely used as a super alloy in aerospace application due to the high strength at elevated temperatures, satisfactory oxidation resistance and heat corrosion resistance. In this study, the Inconel718 has been fabricated using high technology of Metal Injection Molding (MIM) process due to the cost effective technique for producing small, complex and precision parts in high volume compared with conventional method through machining. Through MIM, the binder system is one of the most important criteria in order to successfully fabricate the Inconel718. Even though, the binder system is a temporary, but failure in the selection and removal of the binder system will affect on the final properties of the sintered parts. Therefore, the binder system based on palm oil derivative which is palm stearin has been formulated and developed to replace the conventional binder system. The rheological studies of the mixture between the powder and binders system have been determined properly in order to be successful during injection into injection molding machine. After molding, the binder holds the particles in place. The binder system has to be removed completely through debinding step. During debinding step, solvent debinding and thermal pyrolysis has been used to remove completely of the binder system. The debound part is then sintered to give the required physical and mechanical properties. The results show that the properties of the final sintered parts fulfill the Standard Metal Powder Industries Federation (MPIF) 35 for MIM parts.

Keywords: Binder system, rheological study, metal injection molding, debinding and sintered parts.

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Authors: Mana Tarjoman, Shaghayegh Zarei

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Using efficient classification methods is necessary for automatic fingerprint recognition system. This paper introduces a new structural approach to fingerprint classification by using the directional image of fingerprints to increase the number of subclasses. In this method, the directional image of fingerprints is segmented into regions consisting of pixels with the same direction. Afterwards the relational graph to the segmented image is constructed and according to it, the super graph including prominent information of this graph is formed. Ultimately we apply a matching technique to compare obtained graph with the model graphs in order to classify fingerprints by using cost function. Increasing the number of subclasses with acceptable accuracy in classification and faster processing in fingerprints recognition, makes this system superior.

Keywords: Classification, Directional image, Fingerprint, Graph, Super graph.

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Authors: Akbar Banitalebi, Mohd Ismail Abd Aziz, Rohanin Ahmad

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A new stochastic algorithm called Probabilistic Global Search Johor (PGSJ) has recently been established for global optimization of nonconvex real valued problems on finite dimensional Euclidean space. In this paper we present convergence guarantee for this algorithm in probabilistic sense without imposing any more condition. Then, we jointly utilize this algorithm along with control parameterization technique for the solution of constrained optimal control problem. The numerical simulations are also included to illustrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the PGSJ algorithm in the solution of control problems.

Keywords: Optimal Control Problem, Constraints, Direct Methods, Stochastic Algorithm

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Authors: Shigenori Togashi, Kei Takenaka

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We developed new processes which can collect and detect rapidly airborne pathogens such as the avian flu virus for the pandemic prevention. The fluorescence antibody technique is known as one of high-sensitive detection methods for viruses, but this needs up to a few hours to bind sufficient fluorescence dyes to viruses for detection. In this paper, we developed a mist-labeling can detect substitution viruses in a short time to improve the binding rate of fluorescent dyes and substitution viruses by the micro reaction process. Moreover, we developed the rapid detection system with the above “mist labeling”. The detection system set with a sampling bag collecting patient’s breath and a cartridge can detect automatically pathogens within 10 minutes.

Keywords: Viruses, Sampler, Mist, Detection, Fluorescent dyes, Microreaction.

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Authors: Sophie Sturup

Abstract:

Mega urban transport projects (MUTPs) are increasingly being used in urban environments to ameliorate the problem of congestion. However, a number of problems with regard to mega projects have been identified. In particular the seemingly institutionalised over estimation of economic benefits and persistent cost over runs, could mean that the wrong projects are selected, and that the projects that are selected cost more than they should. Studies to date have produced a number of solutions to these problems, perhaps most notably, the various methods for the inclusion of the private sector in project provision. However the problems have shown significant intractability in the face of these solutions. This paper provides a detailed examination of some of the problems facing mega projects and then examines Foucault-s theory of 'governmentality' as a possible frame of analysis which might shed light on the intractability of the problems that have been identified, through an identification of the art of government in which MUTPs occur.

Keywords: Michel Foucault, Governmentality, Mega projects, Transport.

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Authors: Junji Kaneko, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Siti Ruhana Omar, Oke Oktavianty

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This study is used as a definition method to the value and function in manufacturing sector. In concurrence of discussion about present condition of modeling method, until now definition of 1D-CAE is ambiguity and not conceptual. Across all the physic fields, those methods are defined with the formulation of differential algebraic equation which only applied time derivation and simulation. At the same time, we propose semi-acausal modeling concept and differential algebraic equation method as a newly modeling method which the efficiency has been verified through the comparison of numerical analysis result between the semi-acausal modeling calculation and FEM theory calculation.

Keywords: System Model, Physical Models, Empirical Models, Conservation Law, Differential Algebraic Equation, Object-Oriented.

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Authors: Saeed Khorasanizadeh

Abstract:

Adhesion strength of exterior or interior coating of steel pipes is too important. Increasing of coating adhesion on surfaces can increase the life time of coating, safety factor of transmitting line pipe and decreasing the rate of corrosion and costs. Preparation of steel pipe surfaces before doing the coating process is done by shot and grit blasting. This is a mechanical way to do it. Some effective parameters on that process, are particle size of abrasives, distance to surface, rate of abrasive flow, abrasive physical properties, shapes, selection of abrasive, kind of machine and its power, standard of surface cleanness degree, roughness, time of blasting and weather humidity. This search intended to find some better conditions which improve the surface preparation, adhesion strength and corrosion resistance of coating. So, this paper has studied the effect of varying abrasive flow rate, changing the abrasive particle size, time of surface blasting on steel surface roughness and over blasting on it by using the centrifugal blasting machine. After preparation of numbers of steel samples (according to API 5L X52) and applying epoxy powder coating on them, to compare strength adhesion of coating by Pull-Off test. The results have shown that, increasing the abrasive particles size and flow rate, can increase the steel surface roughness and coating adhesion strength but increasing the blasting time can do surface over blasting and increasing surface temperature and hardness too, change, decreasing steel surface roughness and coating adhesion strength.

Keywords: surface preparation, abrasive particles, adhesionstrength

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Authors: Rami A. Maher, Ibraheem K. Ibraheem

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This work presents a comparison study between the state-space and polynomial methods for the design of the robust governor for load frequency control of steam turbine power systems. The robust governor is synthesized using the two approaches and the comparison is extended to include time and frequency domains performance, controller order, and uncertainty representation, weighting filters, optimality and sub-optimality. The obtained results are represented through tables and curves with reasons of similarities and dissimilarities.

Keywords: Robust control, load frequency control, steam turbine, H∞-norm, system uncertainty, load disturbance.

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Authors: Katrin Zaiß, Tim Schlüter, Stefan Conrad

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Ontology Matching is a task needed in various applica-tions, for example for comparison or merging purposes. In literature,many algorithms solving the matching problem can be found, butmost of them do not consider instances at all. Mappings are deter-mined by calculating the string-similarity of labels, by recognizinglinguistic word relations (synonyms, subsumptions etc.) or by ana-lyzing the (graph) structure. Due to the facts that instances are oftenmodeled within the ontology and that the set of instances describesthe meaning of the concepts better than their meta information,instances should definitely be incorporated into the matching process.In this paper several novel instance-based matching algorithms arepresented which enhance the quality of matching results obtainedwith common concept-based methods. Different kinds of formalismsare use to classify concepts on account of their instances and finallyto compare the concepts directly.KeywordsInstances, Ontology Matching, Semantic Web

Keywords: Instances, Ontology Matching, Semantic Web

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Authors: M. Goerke, J. Gehrmann

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Caused by shorter product life cycles and higher product variety the importance of production ramp ups is increasing. Even though companies are aware of that fact, up to 40% of the ramp up projects still miss technical and economical requirements. The success of a ramp up depends on the planning of human factors, organizational aspects and technological solutions. Since only partly considered in scientific literature, this paper lays its focus on the human factor during production ramp up. There are only incoherent methods which address the problems in this area. A systematic and holistic method to improve the capabilities of the employees during ramp up is missing. The Harada Method is a relatively young approach for developing highly-skilled workers. It consists of different worksheets which help employees to set guidelines and reach overall objectives. This approach is going to be transferred into a tool for ramp up management.

Keywords: Employee Development, Harada, Production Ramp Up.

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Authors: S. Soltan, A. Zarnani, R. AliMohammadzadeh, M. Rahgozar

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XML has become a popular standard for information exchange via web. Each XML document can be presented as a rooted, ordered, labeled tree. The Node label shows the exact position of a node in the original document. Region and Dewey encoding are two famous methods of labeling trees. In this paper, we propose a new insert friendly labeling method named IFDewey based on recently proposed scheme, called Extended Dewey. In Extended Dewey many labels must be modified when a new node is inserted into the XML tree. Our method eliminates this problem by reserving even numbers for future insertion. Numbers generated by Extended Dewey may be even or odd. IFDewey modifies Extended Dewey so that only odd numbers are generated and even numbers can then be used for a much easier insertion of nodes.

Keywords: XML, tree labeling, query processing.

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Authors: Michaela Skulinova, Wanping Zheng, Yan-Ru Hu, Yvan Soucy

Abstract:

Space exploration is a highly visible endeavour of humankind to seek profound answers to questions about the origins of our solar system, whether life exists beyond Earth, and how we could live on other worlds. Different platforms have been utilized in planetary exploration missions, such as orbiters, landers, rovers, and penetrators. Having low mass, good mechanical contact with the surface, ability to acquire high quality scientific subsurface data, and ability to be deployed in areas that may not be conducive to landers or rovers, Penetrators provide an alternative and complimentary solution that makes possible scientific exploration of hardly accessible sites (icy areas, gully sites, highlands etc.). The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has put space exploration as one of the pillars of its space program, and established ExCo program to prepare Canada for future international planetary exploration. ExCo sets surface mobility as its focus and priority, and invests mainly in the development of rovers because of Canada's niche space robotics technology. Meanwhile, CSA is also investigating how micro-penetrators can help Canada to fulfill its scientific objectives for planetary exploration. This paper presents a review of the micro-penetrator technologies, past missions, and lessons learned. It gives a detailed analysis of the technical challenges of micro-penetrators, such as high impact survivability, high precision guidance navigation and control, thermal protection, communications, and etc. Then, a Canadian perspective of a possible micro-penetrator mission is given, including Canadian scientific objectives and priorities, potential instruments, and flight opportunities.

Keywords: micro-penetrator, CSA, planetary exploration

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Authors: N. Sopipan

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.

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