Search results for: model base testing

Authors: Ali Sarosh, Dong Yun-Feng, Muhammad Umer

Abstract:

Fully reusable spaceplanes do not exist as yet. This implies that design-qualification for optimized highly-integrated forebody-inlet configuration of booster-stage vehicle cannot be based on archival data of other spaceplanes. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel TIPSO-SVM expert system methodology. A non-trivial problem related to optimization and classification of hypersonic forebody-inlet configuration in conjunction with mass-model of the two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) vehicle is solved. The hybrid-heuristic machine learning methodology is based on two-step improved particle swarm optimizer (TIPSO) algorithm and two-step support vector machine (SVM) data classification method. The efficacy of method is tested by first evolving an optimal configuration for hypersonic compression system using TIPSO algorithm; thereafter, classifying the results using two-step SVM method. In the first step extensive but non-classified mass-model training data for multiple optimized configurations is segregated and pre-classified for learning of SVM algorithm. In second step the TIPSO optimized mass-model data is classified using the SVM classification. Results showed remarkable improvement in configuration and mass-model along with sizing parameters.

Keywords: TIPSO-SVM expert system, TIPSO algorithm, two-step SVM method, aerothermodynamics, mass-modeling, TSTO vehicle.

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Authors: Kathaleeya Chanda, Panupong Chanplin, Suppara Charoenpoom

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This purposes of the development of creative instruction model through digital media are to: 1) enable learners to learn from instruction media application; 2) help learners implementing instruction media correctly and appropriately; and 3) facilitate learners to apply technology for searching information and practicing skills to implement technology creatively. The sample group consists of 130 cases of secondary students studying in Bo Kluea School, Bo Kluea Nuea Sub-district, Bo Kluea District, Nan Province. The probability sampling was selected through the simple random sampling and the statistics used in this research are percentage, mean, standard deviation and one group pretest – posttest design. The findings are summarized as follows: The congruence index of instruction media for occupation and technology subjects is appropriate. By comparing between learning achievements before implementing the instruction media and learning achievements after implementing the instruction media, it is found that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. For the learning achievements from instruction media implementation, pretest mean is 16.24 while posttest mean is 26.28. Besides, pretest and posttest results are compared and differences of mean are tested, the test results show that the posttest achievements are higher than the pretest achievements with statistical significance at the level of .05. This can be interpreted that the learners achieve better learning progress.

Keywords: Teaching learning model, digital media, creative instruction model, facilitate learners.

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Authors: A. Zahedi Yeganeh, A. Khademolhosseini, R. Mokhtari Malekabadi

Abstract:

Undoubtedly one of the most far-reaching and controversial topics considered in the past few decades, has been globalization. Globalization lies in the essence of the modern culture. It is a complex and rapidly expanding network of links and mutual interdependence that is an aspect of modern life; though some argue that this link existed since the beginning of human history. If we consider globalization as a dynamic social process in which the geographical constraints governing the political, economic, social and cultural relationships have been undermined, it might not be possible to simply describe its impact on the urban fabric. But since in this phenomenon the increase in communications of societies (while preserving the main cultural - regional characteristics) with one another and the increase in the possibility of influencing other societies are discussed, the need for more studies will be felt. The main objective of this study is to grade based on some globalization factors on urban fabric applying the TOPSIS model. The research method is descriptive - analytical and survey. For data analysis, the TOPSIS model and SPSS software were used and the results of GIS software with fourteen cities are shown on the map. The results show that the process of being influenced by the globalization of the urban fabric of fourteen zones of Isfahan was not similar and there have been large differences in this respect between city zones; the most affected areas are zones 5, 6 and 9 of the municipality and the least impact has been on the zones 4 and 3 and 2.

Keywords: Grading, Globalization, Urban fabric, 14 zones of Isfahan, TOPSIS model.

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Authors: Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Parisa Khoshvaght

Abstract:

In some applications, such as image recognition or compression, segmentation refers to the process of partitioning a digital image into multiple segments. Image segmentation is typically used to locate objects and boundaries (lines, curves, etc.) in images. Image segmentation is to classify or cluster an image into several parts (regions) according to the feature of image, for example, the pixel value or the frequency response. More precisely, image segmentation is the process of assigning a label to every pixel in an image such that pixels with the same label share certain visual characteristics. The result of image segmentation is a set of segments that collectively cover the entire image, or a set of contours extracted from the image. Several image segmentation algorithms were proposed to segment an image before recognition or compression. Up to now, many image segmentation algorithms exist and be extensively applied in science and daily life. According to their segmentation method, we can approximately categorize them into region-based segmentation, data clustering, and edge-base segmentation. In this paper, we give a study of several popular image segmentation algorithms that are available.

Keywords: Image Segmentation, hierarchical segmentation, partitional segmentation, density estimation.

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Authors: Aliakbar Akbari, Majid Hashemipour, Shiva Mirshahi

Abstract:

Radio-frequency identification has entered as a beneficial means with conforming GS1 standards to provide the best solutions in the manufacturing area. It competes with other automated identification technologies e.g. barcodes and smart cards with regard to high speed scanning, reliability and accuracy as well. The purpose of this study is to improve production line-s performance by implementing RFID system in the manufacturing area on the basis of radio-frequency identification (RFID) system by 3D modeling in the program Cinema 4D R13 which provides obvious graphical scenes for users to portray their applications. Finally, with regard to improving system performance, it shows how RFID appears as a well-suited technology in a comparison of the barcode scanner to handle different kinds of raw materials in the production line base on logical process.

Keywords: Radio Frequency Identification, Manufacturing and Production Lines, 3D modeling

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Authors: A. P. Joshi, H. V. Warrior, J. P. Panda

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This paper is a continuation of the work carried out by various turbulence modelers in Oceanography on the topic of oceanic turbulent mixing. It evaluates the evolution of ocean water temperature and salinity by the appropriate modeling of turbulent mixing utilizing proper prescription of eddy viscosity. Many modelers in past have suggested including terms like shear, buoyancy and vorticity to be the parameters that decide the slow pressure strain correlation. We add to it the fact that dissipation anisotropy also modifies the correlation through eddy viscosity parameterization. This recalibrates the established correlation constants slightly and gives improved results. This anisotropization of dissipation implies that the critical Richardson’s number increases much beyond unity (to 1.66) to accommodate enhanced mixing, as is seen in reality. The model is run for a couple of test cases in the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and the results are presented here.

Keywords: Anisotropy, GOTM, pressure-strain correlation, Richardson Critical number.

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Authors: Amir Abbas Najafi, Nima Zoraghi, Fatemeh Azimi

Abstract:

Traditionally, project scheduling and material planning have been treated independently. In this research, a mixed integer programming model is presented to integrate project scheduling and materials ordering problems. The goal is to minimize the total material holding and ordering costs. In addition, an efficient metaheuristic algorithm is proposed to solve the model. The proposed algorithm is computationally tested, the results are analyzed, and conclusions are given.

Keywords: Project scheduling, metaheuristic, material ordering, optimization.

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Authors: Hyun-Jee Yang, Bit-Na Kwon, Yong-Jun Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

Abstract:

In the cooperative transmission scheme, both the cellular system and broadcasting system are composed. Two cellular base stations (CBSs) communicating with a user in the cell edge use cooperative transmission scheme in the conventional scheme. In the case that the distance between two CBSs and the user is distant, the conventional scheme does not guarantee the quality of the communication because the channel condition is bad. Therefore, if the distance between CBSs and a user is distant, the performance of the conventional scheme is decreased. Also, the bad channel condition has bad effects on the performance. The proposed scheme uses two relays to communicate well with CBSs when the channel condition between CBSs and the user is poor. Using the relay in the high attenuation environment can obtain both advantages of the high bit error rate (BER) and throughput performance.

Keywords: Cooperative communications, diversity gain, OFDM, interworking system.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper features the modeling and design of a Robust Decentralized Fast Output Sampling (RDFOS) Feedback control technique for the active vibration control of a smart flexible multimodel Euler-Bernoulli cantilever beams for a multivariable (MIMO) case by retaining the first 6 vibratory modes. The beam structure is modeled in state space form using the concept of piezoelectric theory, the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and the Finite Element Method (FEM) technique by dividing the beam into 4 finite elements and placing the piezoelectric sensor / actuator at two finite element locations (positions 2 and 4) as collocated pairs, i.e., as surface mounted sensor / actuator, thus giving rise to a multivariable model of the smart structure plant with two inputs and two outputs. Five such multivariable models are obtained by varying the dimensions (aspect ratios) of the aluminium beam. Using model order reduction technique, the reduced order model of the higher order system is obtained based on dominant Eigen value retention and the Davison technique. RDFOS feedback controllers are designed for the above 5 multivariable-multimodel plant. The closed loop responses with the RDFOS feedback gain and the magnitudes of the control input are obtained and the performance of the proposed multimodel smart structure system is evaluated for vibration control.

Keywords: Smart structure, Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, Fastoutput sampling feedback control, Finite Element Method, Statespace model, Vibration control, LMI, Model order Reduction.

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Authors: David B. Bracewell, Fuji Ren, Shingo Kuroiwa

Abstract:

We present a method to create special domain collections from news sites. The method only requires a single sample article as a seed. No prior corpus statistics are needed and the method is applicable to multiple languages. We examine various similarity measures and the creation of document collections for English and Japanese. The main contributions are as follows. First, the algorithm can build special domain collections from as little as one sample document. Second, unlike other algorithms it does not require a second “general" corpus to compute statistics. Third, in our testing the algorithm outperformed others in creating collections made up of highly relevant articles.

Keywords: Information Retrieval, News, Special DomainCollections,

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, Student Member, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper features the mathematical modeling of a single input single output based Timoshenko smart beam. Further, this mathematical model is used to design a multirate output feedback based discrete sliding mode controller using Bartoszewicz law to suppress the flexural vibrations. The first 2 dominant vibratory modes is retained. Here, an application of the discrete sliding mode control in smart systems is presented. The algorithm uses a fast output sampling based sliding mode control strategy that would avoid the use of switching in the control input and hence avoids chattering. This method does not need the measurement of the system states for feedback as it makes use of only the output samples for designing the controller. Thus, this methodology is more practical and easy to implement.

Keywords: Smart structure, Timoshenko beam theory, Discretesliding mode control, Bartoszewicz law, Finite Element Method, State space model, Vibration control, Mathematical model, SISO.

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Authors: Ioannis Manikas

Abstract:

The increased consumer demand for environmentally friendly production and distribution practices and the stricter environmental regulations turned environmental aspects into important criteria in business decision-making. On the other hand, Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) has evolved dramatically during the last decades in theory and practice serving as a reference point for exchanging experiences among all agents involved in programs and projects to fostering policy and strategy development. Global pressures make it more important than ever to gain a better understanding of the contribution that agrifood businesses make to FNS and to examine ways to make them more resilient in an increasingly globalized and uncertain world. This study extends the standard three-dimensional model of sustainability to include two more dimensions: A technological dimension and a policy/political dimension. Apart from the economic, environmental and social dimensions regularly used in sustainability literature, the extended model will accurately represent the measures and policies addressing food and nutrition security.

Keywords: Food and nutrition security, sustainability, food safety, resilience.

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Authors: Abdullah Madhi Alsharif, Jamal Uddin

Abstract:

A liquid curved jet has many applications in different industrial and engineering processes, such as the prilling process for generating small spherical pellets (fertilizer or magnesium). The liquids used are usually molten and contain small quantities of polymers and therefore can be modelled as non-Newtonian liquids. In this paper, we model the viscoelastic liquid jet by using the Oldroyd- B model. An asymptotic analysis has been used to simplify the governing equations. Furthermore, the trajectory and a linear temporal stability in the presence of gravity and rotation have been determined.

Keywords: gravity, prilling, rotation, viscoelastic jets.

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Authors: Isa Ahmadi, Ramin Khamedi

Abstract:

In this paper, the elasto-plastic and cyclic torsion of a shaft is studied using a finite element method. The Prager kinematic hardening theory of plasticity with the Ramberg and Osgood stress-strain equation is used to evaluate the cyclic loading behavior of the shaft under the torsional loading. The material of shaft is assumed to follow the non-linear strain hardening property based on the Prager model. The finite element method with C¹ continuity is developed and used for solution of the governing equations of the problem. The successive substitution iterative method is used to calculate the distribution of stresses and plastic strains in the shaft due to cyclic loads. The shear stress, effective stress, residual stress and elastic and plastic shear strain distribution are presented in the numerical results.

Keywords: Cyclic Loading, Finite Element Analysis, Prager Kinematic Hardening Model, Torsion of shaft.

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Authors: L. Sellami, D. Idoughi, P. F. Tiako

Abstract:

Cloud computing provides infrastructure to the enterprise through the Internet allowing access to cloud services at anytime and anywhere. This pervasive aspect of the services, the distributed nature of data and the wide use of information make cloud computing vulnerable to intrusions that violate the security of the cloud. This requires the use of security mechanisms to detect malicious behavior in network communications and hosts such as intrusion detection systems (IDS). In this article, we focus on the detection of intrusion into the cloud sing IDSs. We base ourselves on client authentication in the computing cloud. This technique allows to detect the abnormal use of ubiquitous service and prevents the intrusion of cloud computing. This is an approach based on client authentication data. Our IDS provides intrusion detection inside and outside cloud computing network. It is a double protection approach: The security user node and the global security cloud computing.

Keywords: Cloud computing, intrusion detection system, privacy, trust.

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Authors: Sasiphan Nitayaprapha

Abstract:

A commercially-supported social network has become an emerging channel for an organization to communicate with and provide services to customers. The success of the commercially-supported social network depends on the ability of the organization to keep the customers in participating in the network. Drawing from the theories of information adoption, information systems continuance, and web usability, the author develops a model to explore how a commercially-supported social network can encourage customers to continue participating and using the information in the network. The theoretical model will be proved through an online survey of customers using the commercially-supported social networking sites of several high technology companies operating in the same sector. The result will be compared with previous studies to learn about the explanatory power of the research model, and to identify the main factors determining users’ intention to continue using a commercially-supported social network. Theoretical and practical implications and limitations are discussed.

Keywords: Social network, Information adoption, Information systems continuance, Web usability, User satisfaction.

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Authors: Eleni Aggelogiannaki, Haralambos Sarimveis

Abstract:

In this work, a radial basis function (RBF) neural network is developed for the identification of hyperbolic distributed parameter systems (DPSs). This empirical model is based only on process input-output data and used for the estimation of the controlled variables at specific locations, without the need of online solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). The nonlinear model that is obtained is suitably transformed to a nonlinear state space formulation that also takes into account the model mismatch. A stable robust control law is implemented for the attenuation of external disturbances. The proposed identification and control methodology is applied on a long duct, a common component of thermal systems, for a flow based control of temperature distribution. The closed loop performance is significantly improved in comparison to existing control methodologies.

Keywords: Hyperbolic Distributed Parameter Systems, Radial Basis Function Neural Networks, H∞ control, Thermal systems.

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Authors: Justinian Anatory, Nelson Theethayi

Abstract:

The paper compares different channel models used for modeling Broadband Power-Line Communication (BPLC) system. The models compared are Zimmermann and Dostert, Philipps, Anatory et al and Anatory et al generalized Transmission Line (TL) model. The validity of each model was compared in time domain with ATP-EMTP software which uses transmission line approach. It is found that for a power-line network with minimum number of branches all the models give similar signal/pulse time responses compared with ATP-EMTP software; however, Zimmermann and Dostert model indicates the same amplitude but different time delay. It is observed that when the numbers of branches are increased only generalized TL theory approach results are comparable with ATPEMTP results. Also the Multi-Carrier Spread Spectrum (MC-SS) system was applied to check the implication of such behavior on the modulation schemes. It is observed that using Philipps on the underground cable can predict the performance up to 25dB better than other channel models which can misread the actual performance of the system. Also modified Zimmermann and Dostert under multipath can predict a better performance of about 5dB better than the actual predicted by Generalized TL theory. It is therefore suggested for a realistic BPLC system design and analyses the model based on generalized TL theory be used.

Keywords: Broadband Power line Channel Models, loadimpedance, Branched network.

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Authors: M. Rozanek, K. Roubik

Abstract:

A mathematical model of the respiratory system is introduced in this study. Geometrical dimensions of the respiratory system were used to compute the acoustic properties of the respiratory system using the electro-acoustic analogy. The effect of the geometrical proportions of the respiratory system is observed in the paper.

Keywords: Electro-acoustic analogy, total lung impedance, mechanical parameters, respiratory system.

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Authors: R. Khaniki, M.B. Menhaj, H. Eliasi

Abstract:

This paper describes the application of a model predictive controller to the problem of batch reactor temperature control. Although a great deal of work has been done to improve reactor throughput using batch sequence control, the control of the actual reactor temperature remains a difficult problem for many operators of these processes. Temperature control is important as many chemical reactions are sensitive to temperature for formation of desired products. This controller consist of two part (1) a nonlinear control method GLC (Global Linearizing Control) to create a linear model of system and (2) a Model predictive controller used to obtain optimal input control sequence. The temperature of reactor is tuned to track a predetermined temperature trajectory that applied to the batch reactor. To do so two input signals, electrical powers and the flow of coolant in the coil are used. Simulation results show that the proposed controller has a remarkable performance for tracking reference trajectory while at the same time it is robust against noise imposed to system output.

Keywords: Generalized Predictive Control (GPC), TemperatureControl, Global Linearizing Control (GLC), Batch Reactor.

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Authors: R. Khaniki, M.B. Menhaj, H. Eliasi

Abstract:

This paper describes the application of a model predictive controller to the problem of batch reactor temperature control. Although a great deal of work has been done to improve reactor throughput using batch sequence control, the control of the actual reactor temperature remains a difficult problem for many operators of these processes. Temperature control is important as many chemical reactions are sensitive to temperature for formation of desired products. This controller consist of two part (1) a nonlinear control method GLC (Global Linearizing Control) to create a linear model of system and (2) a Model predictive controller used to obtain optimal input control sequence. The temperature of reactor is tuned to track a predetermined temperature trajectory that applied to the batch reactor. To do so two input signals, electrical powers and the flow of coolant in the coil are used. Simulation results show that the proposed controller has a remarkable performance for tracking reference trajectory while at the same time it is robust against noise imposed to system output.

Keywords: Generalized Predictive Control (GPC), TemperatureControl, Global Linearizing Control (GLC), Batch Reactor.

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Authors: Ozlem Koprulu Bagbanci, M.Bilal Bagbanci

Abstract:

This paper presents the effects of migration at the urban sites with an integrated model under the sustainable local development policies for the conservation and revitalization of the site areas as a case at Reyhan heritage site in Bursa. It is known as the “City of immigrants" because of its richness of cultural plurality. The city has always regarded the dynamic impact of immigration as a positive contribution. As a result of this situation, the city created the earliest urbanization practices: being the first capital city of the Ottoman Empire. Bursa created the first modern movement practices and set the first Organized Industrial Zone. The most important aim of the study is to be offer a model for the similar areas with the context of conservation and revitalization of the historical areas, subjected to the local integrated sustainable development policies of local goverments.

Keywords: integration, migration, local policies, sustainability.

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Authors: Samina Elyas Mubeen, R. K. Nema, Gayatri Agnihotri

Abstract:

In this paper the performance of unified power flow controller is investigated in controlling the flow of po wer over the transmission line. Voltage sources model is utilized to study the behaviour of the UPFC in regulating the active, reactive power and voltage profile. This model is incorporated in Newton Raphson algorithm for load flow studies. Simultaneous method is employed in which equations of UPFC and the power balance equations of network are combined in to one set of non-linear algebraic equations. It is solved according to the Newton raphson algorithm. Case studies are carried on standard 5 bus network. Simulation is done in Matlab. The result of network with and without using UPFC are compared in terms of active and reactive power flows in the line and active and reactive power flows at the bus to analyze the performance of UPFC.

Keywords: Newton-Raphson algorithm, Load flow, Unified power flow controller, Voltage source model.

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Authors: J. Junk, M. Eickermann

Abstract:

The Small Hive Beetle, Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a parasite for honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, and was recently introduced to the European continent, accidentally. Based on the literature, a model was developed by using regional meteorological variables (daily values of minimum, maximum and mean air temperature as well as mean soil temperature at 50 mm depth) to calculate the time-point of hive invasion by A. tumida in springtime, the development duration of pupae as well as the number of generations of A. tumida per year. Luxembourg was used as a test region for our model for 2005 to 2013. The model output indicates a successful surviving of the Small Hive Beetle in Luxembourg with two up to three generations per year. Additionally, based on our meteorological data sets a first migration of SHB to apiaries can be expected from mid of March up to April. Our approach can be transferred easily to other countries to estimate the risk potential for a successful introduction and spreading of A. tumida in Western Europe.

Keywords: Aethina tumida, air temperature, larval development, soil temperature.

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Authors: Rujira Kongnuy

Abstract:

Leptospirosis is recognized as an important zoonosis in tropical regions well as an important animal disease with substantial loss in production. In this study, the model for the transmission of the Leptospirosis disease to human population are discussed. Model is described the vector population dynamics and the Leptospirosis transmission to the human population are discussed. Local analysis of equilibria are given. We confirm the results by using numerical results.

Keywords: Eigenvalues, Leptospirosis, Local Stability, Numerical Result

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Authors: H. Shahabi

Abstract:

since in natural accidents, facilities that relate to this vita element are underground so, it is difficult to find quickly some right, exact and definite information about water utilities. There fore, this article has done operationally in Boukan city in Western Azarbaijan of Iran and it tries to represent operation and capabilities of Geographical Information system (GIS) in urban water management at the time of natural accidents. Structure of this article is that firstly it has established a comprehensive data base related to water utilities by collecting, entering, saving and data management, then by modeling water utilities we have practically considered its operational aspects related to water utility problems in urban regions.

Keywords: Natural Disaster, Geographical Information system (GIS), Modeling and network analysis, Boukan city in Western Azerbaijan, Iran

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Authors: J. Furuya, S. Kobayashi, S. D. Meyer

Abstract:

This research examines possible effects of climatic change focusing on global warming and its impacts on world agricultural product markets, by using a world food model developed to consider climate changes. GDP and population for each scenario were constructed by IPCC and climate data for each scenario was reported by the Hadley Center and are used in this research to consider results in different contexts. Production and consumption of primary agriculture crops of the world for each socio-economic scenario are obtained and investigated by using the modified world food model. Simulation results show that crop production in some countries or regions will have different trends depending on the context. These alternative contexts depend on the rate of GDP growth, population, temperature, and rainfall. Results suggest that the development of environment friendly technologies lead to more consumption of food in many developing countries. Relationships among environmental policy, clean energy development, and poverty elimination warrant further investigation.

Keywords: Global warming, SRES scenarios, World food model.

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Authors: Toshihiko Matsuka

Abstract:

One problem in evaluating recent computational models of human category learning is that there is no standardized method for systematically comparing the models' assumptions or hypotheses. In the present study, a flexible general model (called GECLE) is introduced that can be used as a framework to systematically manipulate and compare the effects and descriptive validities of a limited number of assumptions at a time. Two example simulation studies are presented to show how the GECLE framework can be useful in the field of human high-order cognition research.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, category learning, cognitive modeling, radial basis functions.

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Authors: P. Nagendra, S. Halder nee Dey, S. Paul, T. Datta

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology to assess the voltage stability status combined with optimal power flow technique using an instantaneous two-bus equivalent model of power system incorporating static var compensator (SVC) and thyristor controlled series compensator (TCSC) controllers. There by, a generalized global voltage stability indicator being developed has been applied to a robust practical Indian Eastern Grid 203-bus system. Simulation results have proved that the proposed methodology is promising to assess voltage stability of any power system at any operating point in global scenario. Voltage stability augmentation with the application of SVC at the weakest bus and TCSC at critical line connected to the weakest bus is compared with the system having no compensation. In the proposed network equivalent model the generators have been modeled more accurately considering economic criteria.

Keywords: Equivalent two-bus model, global voltage security indicator, optimal power flow, SVC, TCSC.

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

Abstract:

In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling.

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