Search results for: Military data networks

Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed, Nermeen Coutry

Abstract:

Lead time is a critical measure of a supply chain's performance. It impacts both the customer satisfactions as well as the total cost of inventory. This paper presents the result of a study on the analysis of the customer order lead-time for a multinational company. In the study, the lead time was divided into three stages respectively: order entry, order fulfillment, and order delivery. A sample of size 2,425 order lines was extracted from the company's records to use for this study. The sample data entails information regarding customer orders from the time of order entry until order delivery. Data regarding the lead time of each stage for different orders were also provided. Summary statistics on lead time data reveals that about 30% of the orders were delivered later than the scheduled due date. The result of the multiple linear regression analysis technique revealed that component type, logistics parameter, order size and the customer type have significant impacts on lead time. Data analysis on the stages of lead time indicates that stage 2 consumed over 50% of the lead time. Pareto analysis was made to study the reasons for the customer order delay in each stage. Recommendation was given to resolve the problem.

Keywords: Lead time reduction, customer satisfaction, service quality, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Laveen Sundararaj, Palanisamy Vellaiyan

Abstract:

Delay and Disruption Tolerant Networking is part of the Inter Planetary Internet with primary application being Deep Space Networks. Its Terrestrial form has interesting research applications such as Alagappa University Delay Tolerant Water Monitoring Network which doubles as test beds for improvising its routing scheme. DTNs depend on node mobility to deliver packets using a store-carry-and forward paradigm. Throwboxes are small and inexpensive stationary devices equipped with wireless interfaces and storage. We propose the use of Throwboxes to enhance the contact opportunities of the nodes and hence improve the Throughput. The enhancement is evaluated using Alunivdtnsim, a desktop simulator in C language and the results are graphically presented.

Keywords: Alunivdtnsim – Alagappa University Delay TolerantNetwork Simulator, AUDTWMN- Alagappa University DelayTolerant Water Monitoring Network, DTN - Delay and DisruptionTolerant Networking, LTP – Lick Lider Transmission Protocol.

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Authors: Vitalice K. Oduol, C. Ardil

Abstract:

The paper presents frame and burst acquisition in a satellite communication network based on time division multiple access (TDMA) in which the transmissions may be carried on different transponders. A unique word pattern is used for the acquisition process. The search for the frame is aided by soft-decision of QPSK modulated signals in an additive white Gaussian channel. Results show that when the false alarm rate is low the probability of detection is also low, and the acquisition time is long. Conversely when the false alarm rate is high, the probability of detection is also high and the acquisition time is short. Thus the system operators can trade high false alarm rates for high detection probabilities and shorter acquisition times.

Keywords: burst acquisition, burst time plan, frame acquisition, satellite access, satellite TDMA, unique word detection

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Authors: Ion Miciu

Abstract:

The system is made with main distributed components: First Level: Industrial Computers placed in Control Room (monitors thermal and electrical processes based on the data provided by the second level); Second Level: PLCs which collects data from process and transmits information on the first level; also takes commands from this level which are further, passed to execution elements from third level; Third Level: field elements consisting in 3 categories: data collecting elements; data transfer elements from the third level to the second; execution elements which take commands from the second level PLCs and executes them after which transmits the confirmation of execution to them. The purpose of the automatic functioning is the optimization of the co-generative electrical energy commissioning in the national energy system and the commissioning of thermal energy to the consumers. The integrated system treats the functioning of all the equipments and devices as a whole: Gas Turbine Units (GTU); MT 20kV Medium Voltage Station (MVS); 0,4 kV Low Voltage Station (LVS); Main Hot Water Boilers (MHW); Auxiliary Hot Water Boilers (AHW); Gas Compressor Unit (GCU); Thermal Agent Circulation Pumping Unit (TPU); Water Treating Station (WTS).

Keywords: Automation System, Cogenerative Power Plant, Control, Monitoring, Real Time

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Authors: N. Tahouni, M. Gholami, M. H. Panjeshahi

Abstract:

Gas flaring is one of the most GHG emitting sources in the oil and gas industries. It is also a major way for wasting such an energy that could be better utilized and even generates revenue. Minimize flaring is an effective approach for reducing GHG emissions and also conserving energy in flaring systems. Integrating waste and flared gases into the fuel gas networks (FGN) of refineries is an efficient tool. A fuel gas network collects fuel gases from various source streams and mixes them in an optimal manner, and supplies them to different fuel sinks such as furnaces, boilers, turbines, etc. In this article we use fuel gas network model proposed by Hasan et al. as a base model and modify some of its features and add constraints on emission pollution by gas flaring to reduce GHG emissions as possible. Results for a refinery case study showed that integration of flare gas stream with waste and natural gas streams to construct an optimal FGN can significantly reduce total annualized cost and flaring emissions.

Keywords: Flaring, Fuel gas network, GHG emissions.

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Authors: Jaemoon Lim

Abstract:

To construct the lumped spring-mass model considering the occupants for the offset frontal crash, the SISAME software and the NHTSA test data were used. The data on 56 kph 40% offset frontal vehicle to deformable barrier crash test of a MY2007 Mazda 6 4-door sedan were obtained from NHTSA test database. The overall behaviors of B-pillar and engine of simulation models agreed very well with the test data. The trends of accelerations at the driver and passenger head were similar but big differences in peak values. The differences of peak values caused the large errors of the HIC36 and 3 ms chest g’s. To predict well the behaviors of dummies, the spring-mass model for the offset frontal crash needs to be improved.

Keywords: Chest g’s, HIC36, lumped spring-mass model, offset frontal impact, SISAME.

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Authors: Sofia Stoica

Abstract:

In this paper, we use historical data to predict the stock price of a tech company. To this end, we use a dataset consisting of the stock prices over the past five years of 10 major tech companies: Adobe, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Oracle, Salesforce, and Tesla. We implemented and tested three models – a linear regressor model, a k-nearest neighbor model (KNN), and a sequential neural network – and two algorithms – Multiplicative Weight Update and AdaBoost. We found that the sequential neural network performed the best, with a testing error of 0.18%. Interestingly, the linear model performed the second best with a testing error of 0.73%. These results show that using historical data is enough to obtain high accuracies, and a simple algorithm like linear regression has a performance similar to more sophisticated models while taking less time and resources to implement.

Keywords: Finance, machine learning, opening price, stock market.

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Authors: H. M. Kelash, H. M. Faheem, M. Amoon

Abstract:

The demand for autonomous resource management for distributed systems has increased in recent years. Distributed systems require an efficient and powerful communication mechanism between applications running on different hosts and networks. The use of mobile agent technology to distribute and delegate management tasks promises to overcome the scalability and flexibility limitations of the currently used centralized management approach. This work proposes a multiagent system that adopts mobile agents as a technology for tasks distribution, results collection, and management of resources in large-scale distributed systems. A new mobile agent-based approach for collecting results from distributed system elements is presented. The technique of artificial intelligence based on intelligent agents giving the system a proactive behavior. The presented results are based on a design example of an application operating in a mobile environment.

Keywords: distributed management, distributed systems, efficiency, mobile agent, multiagent, response time

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Authors: Peggy S. C. van Teunenbroek

Abstract:

Recently, philanthropic crowd-funding -the raising of external funding from a large audience via social networks or social media- emerged as a new funding instrument for the Dutch cultural sector. However, such philanthropic crowdfunding in the US and the Netherlands is less successful than any other form of crowdfunding. We argue that social aspects are an important stimulus in philanthropic crowd-funding since previous research has shown that crowdfunding is stimulated by something beyond financial merits. Put simply, crowd-funding seems to be a socially motivated activity. In this paper we focus on the effect of social information, described as information about the donation behavior of previous donors. Using a classroom experiment we demonstrated a positive effect of social information on the donation behavior in crowdfunding campaigns. Our study extends previous research by showing who is affected by social information and why, and highlights how social information can be used to stimulate individuals to donate more to crowdfunding projects.

Keywords: Online donation behavior, philanthropic crowd-funding, social information, social influence, social motivation.

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Khorwat, Nabil Naas

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simple circuit for Manchester decoding and without using any complicated or programmable devices. This circuit can decode 90kbps of transmitted encoded data; however, greater than this transmission rate can be decoded if high speed devices were used. We also present a new method for extracting the embedded clock from Manchester data in order to use it for serial-to-parallel conversion. All of our experimental measurements have been done using simulation.

Keywords: High threshold level, level segregation, lowthreshold level, smoothing circuit synchronization..

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Authors: Ashagrie Getnet Flattie

Abstract:

Line-of-sight (LOS) information, data rates, good quality, and flexible network service are limited by the fact that, for the duration of any given connection, they experience severe variation in signal strength due to fading and path loss. Wireless system faces major challenges in achieving wide coverage and capacity without affecting the system performance and to access data everywhere, all the time. In this paper, the cell coverage and edge rate of different Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) schemes in 20 MHz Long Term Evolution (LTE) system under Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) platform are investigated. After some background on the enormous potential of UAV, MIMO, and LTE in wireless links, the paper highlights the presented system model which attempts to realize the various benefits of MIMO being incorporated into UAV platform. The performances of the three MIMO LTE schemes are compared with the performance of 4x4 MIMO LTE in UAV scheme carried out to evaluate the improvement in cell radius, BER, and data throughput of the system in different morphology. The results show that significant performance gains such as bit error rate (BER), data rate, and coverage can be achieved by using the presented scenario.

Keywords: BER, LTE, MIMO, path loss, UAV.

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Authors: J. Vilgerts, L. Timma, D. Blumberga

Abstract:

The objective of the paper is to develop the forecast model for the HW flows. The methodology of the research included 6 modules: historical data, assumptions, choose of indicators, data processing, and data analysis with STATGRAPHICS, and forecast models. The proposed methodology was validated for the case study for Latvia. Hypothesis on the changes in HW for time period of 2010-2020 have been developed and mathematically described with confidence level of 95.0% and 50.0%. Sensitivity analysis for the analyzed scenarios was done. The results show that the growth of GDP affects the total amount of HW in the country. The total amount of the HW is projected to be within the corridor of – 27.7% in the optimistic scenario up to +87.8% in the pessimistic scenario with confidence level of 50.0% for period of 2010-2020. The optimistic scenario has shown to be the least flexible to the changes in the GDP growth.

Keywords: Forecast models, hazardous waste management, sustainable development, waste management indicators.

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Authors: A. Al-Rashidi, A. El-Hamalawi

Abstract:

In this paper, a performance study was conducted to investigate single and dual-axis PV systems to generate electricity in five different sites in Kuwait. Relevant data were obtained by using two sources for validation purposes. A commercial software, PVsyst, was used to analyse the data, such as metrological data and other input parameters, and compute the performance parameters such as capacity factor (CF) and final yield (YF). The results indicated that single and dual-axis PV systems would be very beneficial to electricity generation in Kuwait as an alternative source to conventional power plants, especially with the increased demand over time. The ranges were also found to be competitive in comparison to leading countries using similar systems. A significant increase in CF and YF values around 24% and 28.8% was achieved related to the use of single and dual systems, respectively.

Keywords: Single-axis and dual-axis photovoltaic systems, capacity factor, final yield, renewable energy, Kuwait.

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Authors: Heather Wyman-Pain, Yuankai Bian, Furong Li

Abstract:

The decreasing use of fossil fuel power stations has a negative effect on the stability of the electricity systems in many countries. Nuclear power stations have traditionally provided minimal ancillary services to support the system but this must change in the future as they replace fossil fuel generators. This paper explains the development of the four most popular reactor types still in regular operation across the world which have formed the basis for most reactor development since their commercialisation in the 1950s. The use of nuclear power in four countries with varying levels of capacity provided by nuclear generators is investigated, using the primary frequency response provided by generators as a measure for the electricity networks stability, to assess the need for nuclear generators to provide additional support as their share of the generation capacity increases.

Keywords: Frequency control, nuclear power generation, power system stability, system inertia.

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Authors: S. Chokri

Abstract:

Load modeling is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: Neural network, Load Forecasting, Fuzzy inference, Machine learning, Fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, Support Vector Regression.

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Authors: Anita S. Gangal, P. K. Kalra, D. S. Chauhan

Abstract:

The backpropagation algorithm in general employs quadratic error function. In fact, most of the problems that involve minimization employ the Quadratic error function. With alternative error functions the performance of the optimization scheme can be improved. The new error functions help in suppressing the ill-effects of the outliers and have shown good performance to noise. In this paper we have tried to evaluate and compare the relative performance of complex valued neural network using different error functions. During first simulation for complex XOR gate it is observed that some error functions like Absolute error, Cauchy error function can replace Quadratic error function. In the second simulation it is observed that for some error functions the performance of the complex valued neural network depends on the architecture of the network whereas with few other error functions convergence speed of the network is independent of architecture of the neural network.

Keywords: Complex backpropagation algorithm, complex errorfunctions, complex valued neural network, split activation function.

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Authors: T. S. Chou, K. K. Yen, J. Luo

Abstract:

The network traffic data provided for the design of intrusion detection always are large with ineffective information and enclose limited and ambiguous information about users- activities. We study the problems and propose a two phases approach in our intrusion detection design. In the first phase, we develop a correlation-based feature selection algorithm to remove the worthless information from the original high dimensional database. Next, we design an intrusion detection method to solve the problems of uncertainty caused by limited and ambiguous information. In the experiments, we choose six UCI databases and DARPA KDD99 intrusion detection data set as our evaluation tools. Empirical studies indicate that our feature selection algorithm is capable of reducing the size of data set. Our intrusion detection method achieves a better performance than those of participating intrusion detectors.

Keywords: Intrusion detection, feature selection, k-nearest neighbors, fuzzy clustering, Dempster-Shafer theory

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Authors: Han-Taw Chen, Chung-Hou Lai, Tzu-Hsiang Lin, Ge-Jang He

Abstract:

This study applies the inverse method and three- dimensional CFD commercial software in conjunction with the experimental temperature data to investigate the heat transfer and fluid flow characteristics of the plate-fin heat sink in a closed rectangular enclosure for various values of fin height. The inverse method with the finite difference method and the experimental temperature data is applied to determine the heat transfer coefficient. The k-ε turbulence model is used to obtain the heat transfer and fluid flow characteristics within the fins. To validate the accuracy of the results obtained, the comparison of the average heat transfer coefficient is made. The calculated temperature at selected measurement locations on the plate-fin is also compared with experimental data.

Keywords: Inverse method, FLUENT, k-ε model, Heat transfer characteristics, Plate-fin heat sink.

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Authors: Yuki Kondo, Takanori Nagano, Yuki Takeda, Young-Bok Choi, Hiromi Okada

Abstract:

Optical burst switching(OBS) is considered as one of preferable network technologies for the next generation Internet. The Internet has two traffic classes, i.e. real-time bursts and reliable bursts. It is an important subject for OBS to achieve cooperated operation of real-time bursts and reliable bursts. In this paper, we proposes a new effective traffic control method named Separate TB+LB (Token Bucket + Leaky Bucket : TB+LB) method. The proposed method presents a new Token Bucket scheme for real-time bursts called as RBO-TB (Real-time Bursts Oriented Token Bucket). The method also applies the LB method to reliable bursts for obtaining better performance. This paper verifies the effectiveness of the Separate TB+LB method through the performance evaluation.

Keywords: leaky bucket, OBS, traffic control, token bucket.

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Authors: Che-Wei Lee, Bay-Erl Lai

Abstract:

A new steganographic method via the use of numeric data on public websites with a self-authentication capability is proposed. The proposed technique transforms a secret message into partial shares by Shamir’s (k, n)-threshold secret sharing scheme with n = k + 1. The generated k+1 partial shares then are embedded into the numeric items to be disguised as part of the website’s numeric content, yielding the stego numeric content. Afterward, a receiver links to the website and extracts every k shares among the k+1 ones from the stego numeric content to compute k+1 copies of the secret, and the phenomenon of value consistency of the computed k+1 copies is taken as an evidence to determine whether the extracted message is authentic or not, attaining the goal of self-authentication of the extracted secret message. Experimental results and discussions are provided to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Steganography, data hiding, secret authentication, secret sharing.

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Authors: P. Parvizi, F. Norouzifard, S.Mohammadi

Abstract:

The need to implement intelligent highways is much more emphasized with the growth of vehicle production line as well as vehicle intelligence. The control of intelligent vehicles in order to reduce human error and boost ease congestion is not accomplished solely by the aid of human resources. The present article is an attempt to introduce an intelligent control system based on a single central computer. In this project, central computer, without utilizing Global Positioning System (GPS), is capable of tracking all vehicles, crisis management and control, traffic guidance and recording traffic crimes along the highway. By the help of RFID technology, vehicles are connected to computerized systems, intelligent light poles and other available hardware along the way. By the aid of Wimax communicative technology, all components of the system are virtually connected together through local and global networks devised in them and the energy of the network is provided by the solar cells installed on the intelligent light poles.

Keywords: intelligent highway, intelligent light pole, highway automation

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Authors: Yoshifumi Ishizaki, Naoki Kanatani, Masaki Ito, Toshihiko Sasama, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

Abstract:

This paper demonstrates the bus location system for the route bus through the experiment in the real environment. A bus location system is a system that provides information such as the bus delay and positions. This system uses actual services and positions data of buses, and those information should match data on the database. The system has two possible problems. One, the system could cost high in preparing devices to get bus positions. Two, it could be difficult to match services data of buses. To avoid these problems, we have developed this system at low cost and short time by using the smart phone with GPS and the bus route system. This system realizes the path planning considering bus delay and displaying position of buses on the map. The bus location system was demonstrated on route buses with smart phones for two months.

Keywords: Route Bus, Path Planning System, GPS, Smart Phone.

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Authors: M.R. Safizadeh, M. Hussein, K. F. Samat, M.S. Che Kob, M.S. Yaacob, M.Z. Md Zain

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present the kinematic analysis and mechanism design of an assistive robotic leg for hemiplegic and hemiparetic patients. In this work, the priority is to design and develop the lightweight, effective and single driver mechanism on the basis of experimental hip and knee angles- data for walking speed of 1 km/h. A mechanism of cam-follower with three links is suggested for this purpose. The kinematic analysis is carried out and analysed using commercialized MATLAB software based on the prototype-s links sizes and kinematic relationships. In order to verify the kinematic analysis of the prototype, kinematic analysis data are compared with the experimental data. A good agreement between them proves that the anthropomorphic design of the lower extremity exoskeleton follows the human walking gait.

Keywords: Kinematic analysis, assistive robotic leg, lower extremity exoskeleton, cam-follower mechanism.

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Authors: M. Nayeripour, T. Niknam

Abstract:

Nonlinear and unbalance loads in three phase networks create harmonics and losses. Active and passive filters are used for elimination or reduction of these effects. Passive filters have some limitations. For example, they are designed only for a specific frequency and they may cause to resonance in the network at the point of common coupling. The other drawback of a passive filter is that the sizes of required elements are normally large. The active filter can improve some of limitations of passive filter for example; they can eliminate more than one harmonic and don't cause resonance in the network. In this paper inverter analysis have been done simultaneously in three phase and the RL impedance of the line have been considered. A sliding mode control based on energy feedback of capacitors is employed in the design with this method, the dynamic speed of the filter is improved effectively and harmonics and load unbalance is compensating quickly.

Keywords: Shunt active filter, harmonic, inverter, sliding mode control, energy feedback.

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Authors: M. Izvercianu, L. Ivascu

Abstract:

This paper presents an innovative computer system that contributes to sustainable development of the enterprise. The research refers to a rethinking of traditional systems of collaboration and risk assessment, present in any organization, leading to a sustainable enterprise. This concept integrates emerging tools that allow the implementation and exploitation of the collective intelligence of the enterprise, allowing the exchange of contextual, agile and simplified information, and collaboration with networks of customers and partners in an environment where risks are controlled. Risk assessment is done in a systemic way: the enterprise as the system compared to the contained departments and the enterprise as a subsystem compared to: families of international standards and sustainability-s responsibilities. The enterprise, in this systemic vision, responds to the requirements that any existing system to operate continuously in an indefinite future without reaching key resource depletion. The research is done by integrating collaborative science, engineering, management, psychology, obtaining thus a cornerstone of sustainable development of the enterprise.

Keywords: Enterprise 2.0, ISO, Risk management, Sustainable development

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Authors: Quratulain N. Rajput, Sajjad Haider, Nasir Touheed

Abstract:

The internet has become an attractive avenue for global e-business, e-learning, knowledge sharing, etc. Due to continuous increase in the volume of web content, it is not practically possible for a user to extract information by browsing and integrating data from a huge amount of web sources retrieved by the existing search engines. The semantic web technology enables advancement in information extraction by providing a suite of tools to integrate data from different sources. To take full advantage of semantic web, it is necessary to annotate existing web pages into semantic web pages. This research develops a tool, named OWIE (Ontology-based Web Information Extraction), for semantic web annotation using domain specific ontologies. The tool automatically extracts information from html pages with the help of pre-defined ontologies and gives them semantic representation. Two case studies have been conducted to analyze the accuracy of OWIE.

Keywords: Ontology, Semantic Annotation, Wrapper, Information Extraction.

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Authors: Muhammad Marsudi, Hani Shafeek

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to simulate the production process of a metal stamping industry and to evaluate the utilization of the production line by using ARENA simulation software. The process time and the standard time for each process of the production line is obtained from data given by the company management. Other data are collected through direct observation of the line. There are three work stations performing ten different types of processes in order to produce a single product type. Arena simulation model is then developed based on the collected data. Verification and validation are done to the Arena model, and finally the result of Arena simulation can be analyzed. It is found that utilization at each workstation will increase if batch size is increased although throughput rate remains/is kept constant. This study is very useful for the company because the company needs to improve the efficiency and utilization of its production lines.

Keywords: Arena software, case study, production line, utilization.

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Authors: J. C. Cabanillas-Noris, M. I. Martínez-Hernández, I. León-Monzón

Abstract:

The selection of diffractive events in the ALICE experiment during the first data taking period (RUN-I) of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was limited by the range over which rapidity gaps occur. It would be possible to achieve better measurements by expanding the range in which the production of particles can be detected. For this purpose, the ALICE Diffractive (AD0) detector has been installed and commissioned for the second phase (RUN-II). Any new detector should be able to take the data synchronously with all other detectors and be operated through the ALICE central systems. One of the key elements that must be developed for the AD0 detector is the Detector Control System (DCS). The DCS must be designed to operate safely and correctly this detector. Furthermore, the DCS must also provide optimum operating conditions for the acquisition and storage of physics data and ensure these are of the highest quality. The operation of AD0 implies the configuration of about 200 parameters, from electronics settings and power supply levels to the archiving of operating conditions data and the generation of safety alerts. It also includes the automation of procedures to get the AD0 detector ready for taking data in the appropriate conditions for the different run types in ALICE. The performance of AD0 detector depends on a certain number of parameters such as the nominal voltages for each photomultiplier tube (PMT), their threshold levels to accept or reject the incoming pulses, the definition of triggers, etc. All these parameters define the efficiency of AD0 and they have to be monitored and controlled through AD0 DCS. Finally, AD0 DCS provides the operator with multiple interfaces to execute these tasks. They are realized as operating panels and scripts running in the background. These features are implemented on a SCADA software platform as a distributed control system which integrates to the global control system of the ALICE experiment.

Keywords: AD0, ALICE, DCS, LHC.

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Authors: Saleh Mesbah Elkaffas, Ahmed A. Toony

Abstract:

This paper details the application of a genetic programming framework for induction of useful classification rules from a database of income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements for North American public companies. Potentially interesting classification rules are discovered. Anomalies in the discovery process merit further investigation of the application of genetic programming to the dataset for the problem domain.

Keywords: Genetic programming, data mining classification rule.

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Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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