Search results for: Transient population dynamics

Authors: Quy Dang Nguyen, Reza Nakhaie Jazar

Abstract:

The paper investigates vibration dynamics of tire-road separation for a quarter-car model; this separation model is developed to be close to the real situation considering the tire is able to separate from the ground plane. A set of piecewise linear mathematical models is developed and matches the in-contact and no-contact states to be considered as mother models for further investigations. The bound dynamics are numerically simulated in the time response and phase portraits. The separation analysis may determine which values of suspension parameters can delay and avoid the no-contact phenomenon, which results in improving ride comfort and eliminating the potentially dangerous oscillation. Finally, model verification is carried out in the MSC-ADAMS environment.

Keywords: Quarter-car vibrations, tire-road separation, separation analysis, separation dynamics, ride comfort, ADAMS validation.

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Authors: V. Bezlepkin, M. Karaseva, A. Frolov, E. Kharchenko, L. Lebedev

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The main features of NPP-2006/MIR-1200 design are described. Estimation of individual doses for population under normal operation and accident conditions is performed for Leningradskaya NPP – 2 as an example. The radiation effect on population and environment doesn-t exceed the established normative limit and is as low as reasonably achievable. NPP- 2006/MIR-1200 design meets all Russian and international requirements for power units under construction.

Keywords: Accident release, beyond design basis accident (BDBA), nuclear power plant (NPP), radiation safety.

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Authors: Schehrazad Selmane

Abstract:

We present a deterministic model which describes the dynamics of tuberculosis in Algerian population where the vaccination program with BCG is in place since 1969 and where the WHO recommendations regarding the DOTS (directly-observed treatment, short course) strategy are in application. The impact of an intervention program, targeting recently infected people among all close contacts of active cases and their treatment to prevent endogenous reactivation, on the incidence of tuberculosis, is investigated. We showed that a widespread treatment of latently infected individuals for some years is recommended to shift from higher to lower equilibrium state and thereafter relaxation is recommended.

Keywords: Deterministic model, reproduction number, stability, tuberculosis.

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Authors: Xiaoyan Dou, Yongkun Li

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In this paper, we consider a food-limited population model with delay and feedback control. By applying the comparison theorem of the differential equation and constructing a suitable Lyapunov functional, sufficient conditions which guarantee the permanence and existence of a unique globally attractive positive almost periodic solution of the system are obtained.

Keywords: Almost periodic solution, food-limited population, feedback control, permanence.

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Authors: D.K. Rao, M.G.M. Khan, K.G. Reddy

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The focus of this paper is to develop a technique of solving a combined problem of determining Optimum Strata Boundaries(OSB) and Optimum Sample Size (OSS) of each stratum, when the population understudy isskewed and the study variable has a Pareto frequency distribution. The problem of determining the OSB isformulated as a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) which is then solved by dynamic programming technique. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed method. The proposed technique is useful to obtain OSB and OSS for a Pareto type skewed population, which minimizes the variance of the estimate of population mean.

Keywords: Stratified sampling, Optimum strata boundaries, Optimum sample size, Pareto distribution, Mathematical programming problem, Dynamic programming technique.

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Authors: Phayong Thepaksorn

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to assess whether living in proximity to a roofing fiber cement factory in southern Thailand was associated with physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains measured in a self-reported health risk assessment (HRA) questionnaire. A cross-sectional study was conducted among community members divided into two groups: near population (living within 0-2km of factory) and far population (living within 2-5km of factory) (N=198). A greater proportion of those living far from the factory (65.34%) reported physical health problems than the near group (51.04%) (p =0.032). This study has demonstrated that the near population group had higher proportion of participants with positive ratings on mental assessment (30.34%) and social health impacts (28.42%) than far population group (10.59% and 16.67%, respectively) (p <0.001). The near population group (29.79%) had similar proportion of participants with positive ratings in spiritual health impacts compared with far population group (27.08%). Among females, but not males, this study demonstrated that a higher proportion of the near population had a positive summative score for the self-HRA, which included all four health domain, compared to the far population (p<0.001 for females; p = 0.154 for males). In conclusion, this self-HRA of physical, mental, social, and spiritual health domains reflected the risk perceptions of populations living in the vicinity of the roofing fiber cement factory. This type of tool can bring attention to population concerns and complaints in the factory’s surrounding community. Our findings may contribute to future development of self-HRA for HIA development procedure in Thailand.

Keywords: Cement dust, health impact assessment, risk assessment, walk-though survey.

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Authors: Inese Bula

Abstract:

Symbolic dynamics studies dynamical systems on the basis of the symbol sequences obtained for a suitable partition of the state space. This approach exploits the property that system dynamics reduce to a shift operation in symbol space. This shift operator is a chaotic mapping. In this article we show that in the symbol space exist other chaotic mappings.

Keywords: Infinite symbol space, prefix metric, chaotic mapping, generator function, jump mapping.

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Authors: Yao Jie, Yeo Khoon Seng

Abstract:

In recent decades, flapping wing aerodynamics has attracted great interest. Understanding the physics of biological flyers such as birds and insects can help improve the performance of micro air vehicles. The present research focuses on the aerodynamics of insect-like flapping wing flight with the approach of numerical computation. Insect model of hawkmoth is adopted in the numerical study with rigid wing assumption currently. The numerical model integrates the computational fluid dynamics of the flow and active control of wing kinematics to achieve stable flight. The computation grid is a hybrid consisting of background Cartesian nodes and clouds of mesh-free grids around immersed boundaries. The generalized finite difference method is used in conjunction with single value decomposition (SVD-GFD) in computational fluid dynamics solver to study the dynamics of a free hovering hummingbird hawkmoth. The longitudinal dynamics of the hovering flight is governed by three control parameters, i.e., wing plane angle, mean positional angle and wing beating frequency. In present work, a PID controller works out the appropriate control parameters with the insect motion as input. The controller is adjusted to acquire desired maneuvering of the insect flight. The numerical scheme in present study is proven to be accurate and stable to simulate the flight of the hummingbird hawkmoth, which has relatively high Reynolds number. The PID controller is responsive to provide feedback to the wing kinematics during the hovering flight. The simulated hovering flight agrees well with the real insect flight. The present numerical study offers a promising route to investigate the free flight aerodynamics of insects, which could overcome some of the limitations of experiments.

Keywords: Aerodynamics, flight control, computational fluid dynamics, flapping-wing flight.

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Authors: Yuyun Wabula, B. J. Dewancker

Abstract:

In the past decade, the social networking app has been growing very rapidly. Geolocation data is one of the important features of social media that can attach the user's location coordinate in the real world. This paper proposes the use of geolocation data from the Twitter social media application to gain knowledge about urban dynamics, especially on human mobility behavior. This paper aims to explore the relation between geolocation Twitter with the existence of people in the urban area. Firstly, the study will analyze the spread of people in the particular area, within the city using Twitter social media data. Secondly, we then match and categorize the existing place based on the same individuals visiting. Then, we combine the Twitter data from the tracking result and the questionnaire data to catch the Twitter user profile. To do that, we used the distribution frequency analysis to learn the visitors’ percentage. To validate the hypothesis, we compare it with the local population statistic data and land use mapping released by the city planning department of Makassar local government. The results show that there is the correlation between Twitter geolocation and questionnaire data. Thus, integration the Twitter data and survey data can reveal the profile of the social media users.

Keywords: Geolocation, Twitter, distribution analysis, human mobility.

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Authors: Xu Du, Aparna S. Varde

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In this research, we propose to conduct diagnostic and predictive analysis about the key factors and consequences of urban population relocation. To achieve this goal, urban simulation models extract the urban development trends as land use change patterns from a variety of data sources. The results are treated as part of urban big data with other information such as population change and economic conditions. Multiple data mining methods are deployed on this data to analyze nonlinear relationships between parameters. The result determines the driving force of population relocation with respect to urban sprawl and urban sustainability and their related parameters. This work sets the stage for developing a comprehensive urban simulation model for catering to specific questions by targeted users. It contributes towards achieving sustainability as a whole.

Keywords: Data Mining, Environmental Modeling, Sustainability, Urban Planning.

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Authors: Theodore N.S. Karfakis, Anna Andrade

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The aim of this study was to examine the dynamics of functional composition of a non flooded Amazonian forest in response to drought stress in terms of diameter growth, recruitment and mortality. The survey was carried out in the continuous forest of the Biological dynamics of forest fragments project 90 km outside the city of Manaus, state of Amazonas Brazil. All stems >10 cm dbh where identified to species level and monitored in 18 one hectare permanent sample plots from 1981 to 2004.For statistical analysis all species where aggregated in three ecological guilds. Two distinct drought events occurred in 1983 and 1997. Results showed that more early successional species performed better than later successional ones. Response was significant for both events but for the 1997 event this was more pronounced possibly because of the fact that the event was in the middle of the dry rather than the wet period as was the 1983 one.

Keywords: Brazil, functional composition, drought, Amazonian non flooded forest.

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Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos

Abstract:

Statistical analysis of electrophysiological recordings obtained under, e.g. tactile, stimulation frequently suggests participation in the network dynamics of experimentally unobserved “hidden" neurons. Such interneurons making synapses to experimentally recorded neurons may strongly alter their dynamical responses to the stimuli. We propose a mathematical method that formalizes this possibility and provides an algorithm for inferring on the presence and dynamics of hidden neurons based on fitting of the experimental data to spike trains generated by the network model. The model makes use of Integrate and Fire neurons “chemically" coupled through exponentially decaying synaptic currents. We test the method on simulated data and also provide an example of its application to the experimental recording from the Dorsal Column Nuclei neurons of the rat under tactile stimulation of a hind limb.

Keywords: Integrate and fire neuron, neural network models, spike trains.

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Authors: Teewin Plangsrinont, Wasawat Nakkiew

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In this study, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was utilized to simulate and predict the path of water from water soot blower through an ambient flow field in 300-megawatt tangentially burned pulverized coal boiler that utilizes a water soot blower as a cleaning device. To predict the position of the impact of water on the opposite side of the water soot blower under identical conditions, the nozzle size and water flow rate were fixed in this investigation. The simulation findings demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in predicting the direction of water flow to the boiler's water wall tube, which was validated by comparison to experimental data. Results show maximum deviation value of the water jet trajectory is 10.2%.

Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics, tangentially fired boiler, thermal power plant, water soot blower.

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Authors: Ajibola O. Akinrinde, Andrew Swanson, Remy Tiako

Abstract:

There exist significant losses on transmission lines due to distance, as power generating stations could be located far from some isolated settlements. Standalone wind farms could be a good choice of alternative power generation for such settlements that are far from the grid due to factors of long distance or socio-economic problems. However, uncompensated wind farms consume reactive power since wind turbines are induction generators. Therefore, capacitor banks are used to compensate reactive power, which in turn improves the voltage profile of the network. Although capacitor banks help improving voltage profile, they also undergo switching actions due to its compensating response to the variation of various types of load at the consumer’s end. These switching activities could cause transient overvoltage on the network, jeopardizing the end-life of other equipment on the system. In this paper, the overvoltage caused by these switching activities is investigated using the IEEE bus 14-network to represent a standalone wind farm, and the simulation is done using ATP/EMTP software. Scenarios involving the use of pre-insertion resistor and pre-insertion inductor, as well as controlled switching was also carried out in order to decide the best mitigation option to reduce the overvoltage.

Keywords: Capacitor banks, IEEE bus 14-network, Pre-insertion resistor, Standalone wind farm.

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Authors: Y. V. Kim

Abstract:

This article presents an approach with regards to the Functional Testing of Space System (SS) that could be a space vehicle (spacecraft-S/C) and/or its equipment and components – S/C subsystems. This test should finalize the Space Qualification Tests (SQT) campaign. It could be considered as a generic test and used for a wide class of SS that, from the point of view of System Dynamics and Control Theory, may be described by the ordinary differential equations. The suggested methodology is based on using semi-natural experiment laboratory stand that does not require complicated, precise and expensive technological control-verification equipment. However, it allows for testing totally assembled system during Assembling, Integration and Testing (AIT) activities at the final phase of SQT, involving system hardware (HW) and software (SW). The test physically activates system input (sensors) and output (actuators) and requires recording their outputs in real time. The data are then inserted in a laboratory computer, where it is post-experiment processed by the MATLAB/Simulink Identification Toolbox. It allows for estimating the system dynamics in the form of estimation of its differential equation coefficients through the verification experimental test and comparing them with expected mathematical model, prematurely verified by mathematical simulation during the design process. Mathematical simulation results presented in the article show that this approach could be applicable and helpful in SQT practice. Further semi-natural experiments should specify detail requirements for the test laboratory equipment and test-procedures.

Keywords: system dynamics, space system ground tests, space qualification, system dynamics identification, satellite attitude control, assembling integration and testing

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Authors: H. Bentarzi, A. Zitouni

Abstract:

The reliability of the power grid depends on the successful operation of thousands of protective relays. The failure of one relay to operate as intended may lead the entire power grid to blackout. In fact, major power system failures during transient disturbances may be caused by unnecessary protective relay tripping rather than by the failure of a relay to operate. Adequate relay testing provides a first defense against false trips of the relay and hence improves power grid stability and prevents catastrophic bulk power system failures. The goal of this research project is to design and enhance the relay tester using a technology such as Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) card NI 7851. A PC based tester framework has been developed using Simulink power system model for generating signals under different conditions (faults or transient disturbances) and LabVIEW for developing the graphical user interface and configuring the FPGA. Besides, the interface system has been developed for outputting and amplifying the signals without distortion. These signals should be like the generated ones by the real power system and large enough for testing the relay’s functionality. The signals generated that have been displayed on the scope are satisfactory. Furthermore, the proposed testing system can be used for improving the performance of protective relay.

Keywords: Amplifier class D, FPGA, protective relay, tester.

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Authors: Nicolas Zufferey

Abstract:

Ant algorithms are well-known metaheuristics which have been widely used since two decades. In most of the literature, an ant is a constructive heuristic able to build a solution from scratch. However, other types of ant algorithms have recently emerged: the discussion is thus not limited by the common framework of the constructive ant algorithms. Generally, at each generation of an ant algorithm, each ant builds a solution step by step by adding an element to it. Each choice is based on the greedy force (also called the visibility, the short term profit or the heuristic information) and the trail system (central memory which collects historical information of the search process). Usually, all the ants of the population have the same characteristics and behaviors. In contrast in this paper, a new type of ant metaheuristic is proposed, namely SMART (for Solution Methods with Ants Running by Types). It relies on the use of different population of ants, where each population has its own personality.

Keywords: Optimization, Metaheuristics, Ant Algorithms, Evolutionary Procedures, Population-Based Methods.

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Authors: A. K. Kamath, N. M. Singh, R. Pasumarthy

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This paper investigates the control of a bouncing ball using Model Predictive Control. Bouncing ball is a benchmark problem for various rhythmic tasks such as juggling, walking, hopping and running. Humans develop intentions which may be perceived as our reference trajectory and tries to track it. The human brain optimizes the control effort needed to track its reference; this forms the central theme for control of bouncing ball in our investigations.

Keywords: Bouncing Ball, impact dynamics, intermittent control, model predictive control.

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Authors: Belkacem Meziane

Abstract:

The original 3D Lorenz-Haken equations -which describe laser dynamics- are converted into 2-second-order differential equations out of which the so far missing mathematics is extracted. Leaning on high-order trigonometry, important outcomes are pulled out: A fundamental result attributes chaos to forbidden periodic solutions, inside some precisely delimited region of the control parameter space that governs self-pulsing.

Keywords: chaos, Lorenz-Haken equations, laser dynamics, nonlinearities

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Authors: Abu Qudeiri Jaber, Yamamoto Hidehiko Rizauddin Ramli

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To create a solution for a specific problem in machine learning, the solution is constructed from the data or by use a search method. Genetic algorithms are a model of machine learning that can be used to find nearest optimal solution. While the great advantage of genetic algorithms is the fact that they find a solution through evolution, this is also the biggest disadvantage. Evolution is inductive, in nature life does not evolve towards a good solution but it evolves away from bad circumstances. This can cause a species to evolve into an evolutionary dead end. In order to reduce the effect of this disadvantage we propose a new a learning tool (criteria) which can be included into the genetic algorithms generations to compare the previous population and the current population and then decide whether is effective to continue with the previous population or the current population, the proposed learning tool is called as Keeping Efficient Population (KEP). We applied a GA based on KEP to the production line layout problem, as a result KEP keep the evaluation direction increases and stops any deviation in the evaluation.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, Layout problem, Machinelearning, Production system.

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. T. Lin, H. C. Chang, W. K. Lin, W. Y. Li, C. Shih

Abstract:

This analysis of Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) was performed mainly by TRACE, assisted with FRAPTRAN and FRAPCON. SNAP v2.2.1 and TRACE v5.0p3 are used to develop the Kuosheng NPP SPU TRACE model which can simulate the turbine trip without bypass transient. From the analysis of TRACE, the important parameters such as dome pressure, coolant temperature and pressure can be determined. Through these parameters, comparing with the criteria which were formulated by United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC), we can determine whether the Kuoshengnuclear power plant failed or not in the accident analysis. However, from the data of TRACE, the fuel rods status cannot be determined. With the information from TRACE and burn-up analysis obtained from FRAPCON, FRAPTRAN analyzes more details about the fuel rods in this transient. Besides, through the SNAP interface, the data results can be presented as an animation. From the animation, the TRACE and FRAPTRAN data can be merged together that may be realized by the readers more easily. In this research, TRACE showed that the maximum dome pressure of the reactor reaches to 8.32 MPa, which is lower than the acceptance limit 9.58 MPa. Furthermore, FRAPTRAN revels that the maximum strain is about 0.00165, which is below the criteria 0.01. In addition, cladding enthalpy is 52.44 cal/g which is lower than 170 cal/g specified by the USNRC NUREG-0800 Standard Review Plan.

Keywords: Turbine trip without bypass, Kuosheng NPP, TRACE, FRAPTRAN, SNAP animation.

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Authors: Vigen Arakelian

Abstract:

This paper deals with the study of devices for displacement of the mould base of blow-molding machines. The displacement of the mould in the studied case is carried out by a linear actuator, which ensures the descent of the mould base and by extension springs, which return the letter in the initial position. The aim of this paper is to study the inverse dynamics of the device for displacement of the mould base of blow-molding machines and to determine its optimum parameters for higher rate of production. In the other words, it is necessary to solve the inverse dynamic problem to find the equation of motion linking applied forces with displacements. This makes it possible to determine the stiffness coefficient of the spring to turn the mold base back to the initial position for a given time. The obtained results are illustrated by a numerical example. It is shown that applying a spring with stiffness returns the mould base of the blow molding machine into the initial position in 0.1 sec.

Keywords: Design, blow-molding machines, dynamics.

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Authors: V. Bezlepkin, A. Frolov, L. Lebedev, E. Kharchenko

Abstract:

Iodine radionuclides in accident releases under severe accident conditions at NPP with VVER are the most radiationimportant with a view to population dose generation at the beginning of the accident. To decrease radiation consequences of severe accidents the technical solutions for severe accidents management have been proposed in MIR.1200 project, with consideration of the measures for suppression of volatile iodine forms generation in the containment. Behavior dynamics of different iodine forms in the containment under severe accident conditions has been analyzed for the purpose of these technical solutions justification.

Keywords: Iodine radionuclides, VVER, severe accident.

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Authors: M. Cañada-Soriano, C. Aparicio-Fernández, P. Sebastián Ferrer Gisbert, M. Val Field, J.-L. Vivancos-Bono

Abstract:

The lack of insulation along with the existence of air leakages constitute a meaningful impact on the energy performance of buildings. Both of them lead to increases in the energy demand through additional heating and/or cooling loads. Additionally, they cause thermal discomfort. In order to quantify these uncontrolled air currents, the Blower Door test can be used. It is a standardized procedure that determines the airtightness of a space by characterizing the rate of air leakages through the envelope surface. In this sense, the low-energy buildings complying with the Passive House design criteria are required to achieve high levels of airtightness. Due to the invisible nature of air leakages, additional tools are often considered to identify where the infiltrations take place such as the infrared thermography. The aim of this study is to assess the airtightness of a typical Mediterranean dwelling house, refurbished under the Passive House standard, using the Blower Door test. Moreover, the building energy performance modelling tools TRNSYS (TRaNsient System Simulation program) and TRNFlow (TRaNsient Flow) have been used to estimate the energy demand in different scenarios. In this sense, a sequential implementation of three different energy improvement measures (insulation thickness, glazing type and infiltrations) have been analyzed.

Keywords: Airtightness, blower door, TRNSYS, infrared thermography, energy demand.

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Authors: Wenhua Hou, Xing Liu, Deqiang Chen

Abstract:

The ubiquitous payment problems within construction industry of China are notoriously hard to be resolved, thus lead to a series of impacts to the industry chain. Among of them, the most direct result is affecting the normal operation of contractors negatively. A wealth of research has already discussed reasons of the payment problems by introducing a number of possible improvement strategies. But the causalities of these problems are still far from harsh reality. In this paper, the authors propose a model for cash flow system of construction projects by introducing System Dynamics techniques to explore causal facets of the payment problem. The effects of payment arrears on both cash flow and profitability of project are simulated into four scenarios by using data from real projects. Simulating results show visible clues to help contractors quantitatively determining the consequences for the construction project that arise from payment delay.

Keywords: payment problems, cash flow, profitability, system dynamics.

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Authors: Saleh Alshehri

Abstract:

Thermoelectric technology is currently being used in many industrial applications for cooling, heating and generating electricity. This research mainly focuses on using thermoelectric to cool down high-speed computer chips at different operating conditions. A previously developed and validated three-dimensional model for optimizing and assessing the performance of cascaded thermoelectric and non-cascaded thermoelectric is used in this study to investigate the possibility of decreasing the hotspot temperature of computer chip. Additionally, a test assembly is built and tested at steady-state and transient conditions. The obtained optimum thermoelectric current at steady-state condition is used to conduct a number of pulsed tests (i.e. transient tests) with different shapes to cool the computer chips hotspots. The results of the steady-state tests showed that at hotspot heat rate of 15.58 W (5.97 W/cm²), using thermoelectric current of 4.5 A has resulted in decreasing the hotspot temperature at open circuit condition (89.3 °C) by 50.1 °C. Maximum and minimum hotspot temperatures have been affected by ON and OFF duration of the electrical current pulse. Maximum hotspot temperature was resulted by longer OFF pulse period. In addition, longer ON pulse period has generated the minimum hotspot temperature.

Keywords: Thermoelectric generator, thermoelectric cooler, chip hotspots, electronic cooling.

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Authors: Martin Klepek

Abstract:

This paper presents results of primary quantitative research on viral advertising with focus on popularity and willingness to share viral video among Czech Internet population. It starts with brief theoretical debate on viral advertising, which is used for the comparison of the results. For purpose of collecting data, online questionnaire survey was given to 384 respondents. Statistics utilized in this research included frequency, percentage, correlation and Pearson’s Chi-square test. Data was evaluated using SPSS software. The research analysis disclosed high popularity of viral advertising video among Czech Internet population but implies lower willingness to share it. Significant relationship between likability of viral video technique and age of the viewer was found.

Keywords: Internet advertising, Internet population, promotion, marketing communication, viral advertising, viral video.

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Authors: A. K. Abdel-Fattah, A. B. El-Tawil, N. A. Harraz

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the operational and strategic planning decisions related to the quayside of container terminals. We introduce an integrated operational research (OR) and system dynamics (SD) approach to solve the Berth Allocation Problem (BAP) and the Quay Crane Assignment Problem (QCAP). A BAP-QCAP optimization modeling approach which considers practical aspects not studied before in the integration of BAP and QCAP is discussed. A conceptual SD model is developed to determine the long-term effect of optimization on the system behavior factors like resource utilization, attractiveness to port, number of incoming vessels to port and port profits. The framework can be used for improving the operational efficiency of container terminals and providing a strategic view after applying optimization.

Keywords: Operational research, system dynamics, container terminal, quayside operational problems, strategic planning decisions.

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Authors: Myunggon Yoon, Jung-Ho Moon

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a transfer function representation of a general one-dimensional combustor. The input of the transfer function is a heat rate perturbation of a burner and the output is a flow velocity perturbation at the burner. This paper considers a general combustor model composed of multiple cans with different cross sectional areas, along with a non-zero flow rate.

Keywords: Thermoacoustics, dynamics, combustor, transfer function.

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Authors: Sharmistha Roy

Abstract:

In Singapore, there are about 1 million baby boomers, defined as those born between 1947 and 1964. They constitute a sizeable proportion (about 30 per cent) of the resident population comprising Singapore citizens and permanent residents. The first batches of these baby boomers have already 65 years old by 2012. Thereafter, baby boomers will swell the ranks of the elderly population in Singapore until 2030. The baby boomers in this study are divided into broad groups, namely, the early baby boomers (born 1947-54) and late baby boomers (1955-64). Continuing decline in fertility and mortality rates in the past three decades as well as improvements in health care facilities and services have changed the demography of Singapore from a “pyramid-shape” young, post war baby boomers population to a rapidly ageing population. With the ageing of the baby boom generation, the population of Singapore is about to grey rapidly over the next three decades. As such, there is a need for Singapore to understand the profile, perceptions and aspirations of this group, and devise strategies to address the needs and concerns as well as opportunities that arise with the ageing of baby boomers are discussed and presented in this work.

Keywords: Ageing index, Baby boomers, Demographic dependency ratio (DDR), Fertility and mortality rate, Life expectancy, Singapore.

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