Search results for: Physical Models
3559 An Approach for Optimization of Functions and Reducing the Value of the Product by Using Virtual Models
Authors: A. Bocevska, G. Todorov, T. Neshkov
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New developed approach for Functional Cost Analysis (FCA) based on virtual prototyping (VP) models in CAD/CAE environment, applicable and necessary in developing new products is presented. It is instrument for improving the value of the product while maintaining costs and/or reducing the costs of the product without reducing value. Five broad classes of VP methods are identified. Efficient use of prototypes in FCA is a vital activity that can make the difference between successful and unsuccessful entry of new products into the competitive word market. Successful realization of this approach is illustrated for a specific example using press joint power tool.
Keywords: CAD/CAE environment, Functional Cost Analysis (FCA), Virtual prototyping (VP) models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13203558 Geopotential Models Evaluation in Algeria Using Stochastic Method, GPS/Leveling and Topographic Data
Authors: M. A. Meslem
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For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.
Keywords: Quasigeoid, gravity anomalies, covariance, GGM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8703557 New Multi-Solid Thermodynamic Model for the Prediction of Wax Formation
Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi
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In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19573556 A Model for Estimation of Efforts in Development of Software Systems
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Manisha Prashar, Pourush Bassi, Atul Bisht
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Software effort estimation is the process of predicting the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans, budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The performances of the developed models were tested on NASA software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.Keywords: Neuro-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model, GA Based Model, Genetic Algorithm.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32123555 Circular Economy Maturity Models: A Systematic Literature Review
Authors: D. Kreutzer, S. Müller-Abdelrazeq, I. Isenhardt
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Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach to determine the current status of companies’ transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g., IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyze the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company's (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analyzed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the number and types of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.
Keywords: Circular economy, maturity model, maturity assessment, systematic literature review.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1883554 Evaluation of Environmental, Technical, and Economic Indicators of a Fused Deposition Modeling Process
Authors: M. Yosofi, S. Ezeddini, A. Ollivier, V. Lavaste, C. Mayousse
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Additive manufacturing processes have changed significantly in a wide range of industries and their application progressed from rapid prototyping to production of end-use products. However, their environmental impact is still a rather open question. In order to support the growth of this technology in the industrial sector, environmental aspects should be considered and predictive models may help monitor and reduce the environmental footprint of the processes. This work presents predictive models based on a previously developed methodology for the environmental impact evaluation combined with a technical and economical assessment. Here we applied the methodology to the Fused Deposition Modeling process. First, we present the predictive models relative to different types of machines. Then, we present a decision-making tool designed to identify the optimum manufacturing strategy regarding technical, economic, and environmental criteria.
Keywords: Additive manufacturing, decision-makings, environmental impact, predictive models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10413553 Performance of Heterogeneous Autoregressive Models of Realized Volatility: Evidence from U.S. Stock Market
Authors: Petr Seďa
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This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24623552 An Improved Variable Tolerance RSM with a Proportion Threshold
Authors: Chen Wu, Youquan Xu, Dandan Li, Ronghua Yang, Lijuan Wang
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In rough set models, tolerance relation, similarity relation and limited tolerance relation solve different situation problems for incomplete information systems in which there exists a phenomenon of missing value. If two objects have the same few known attributes and more unknown attributes, they cannot distinguish them well. In order to solve this problem, we presented two improved limited and variable precision rough set models. One is symmetric, the other one is non-symmetric. They all use more stringent condition to separate two small probability equivalent objects into different classes. The two models are needed to engage further study in detail. In the present paper, we newly form object classes with a different respect comparing to the first suggested model. We overcome disadvantages of non-symmetry regarding to the second suggested model. We discuss relationships between or among several models and also make rule generation. The obtained results by applying the second model are more accurate and reasonable.Keywords: Incomplete information system, rough set, symmetry, variable precision.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8773551 The Framework of System Safety for Multi Human-in-The-Loop System
Authors: Hideyuki Shintani, Ichiro Koshijima
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In Cyber Physical System (CPS), if there are a large number of persons in the process, a role of person in CPS might be different comparing with the one-man system. It is also necessary to consider how Human-in-The-Loop Cyber Physical Systems (HiTLCPS) ensure safety of each person in the loop process. In this paper, the authors discuss a system safety framework with an illustrative example with STAMP model to clarify what point for safety should be considered and what role of person in the should have.Keywords: Cyber Physical System, Human-in-The-Loop, Safety, STAMP model.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15113550 Axiomatic Systems as an Alternative to Teach Physics
Authors: Liliana M. Marinelli, Cristina T. Varanese
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In the last few years, students from higher education have difficulties in grasping mathematical concepts which support physical matters, especially those in the first years of this education. Classical Physics teaching turns to be complex when students are not able to make use of mathematical tools which lead to the conceptual structure of Physics. When derivation and integration rules are not used or developed in parallel with other disciplines, the physical meaning that we attempt to convey turns to be complicated. Due to this fact, it could be of great use to see the Classical Mechanics from an axiomatic approach, where the correspondence rules give physical meaning, if we expect students to understand concepts clearly and accurately. Using the Minkowski point of view adapted to a two-dimensional space and time where vectors, matrices, and straight lines (worked from an affine space) give mathematical and physical rigorosity even when it is more abstract. An interesting option would be to develop the disciplinary contents from an axiomatic version which embraces the Classical Mechanics as a particular case of Relativistic Mechanics. The observation about the increase in the difficulties stated by students in the first years of education allows this idea to grow as a possible option to improve performance and understanding of the concepts of this subject.
Keywords: Axiom, classical physics, physical concepts, relativity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12683549 Physical Evaluation of Selected Malaysian National Rugby Players
Authors: LC Chong , A Yaacob, MH Rosli, Y Adam, A Yusuf , MS Omar-Fauzee, N Sutresna, Berliana, HH Pramono, M Nazrul-Hakim
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Currently, there is no database or local norms for the physical performance of Malaysian rugby players. This database or norms are vital for Malaysian-s sports development as programs can be setup to improve the current status. This pilot study was conducted to evaluate the status of our semi professional rugby players. The rugby players were randomly selected from the Malaysian National team and several clubs in the Klang valley, Kuala Lumpur Malaysia. 54 male rugby players (Age: 24.41 ± 4.06 years) were selected for this pilot study. Height, bodyweight, percentage body fat and body mass index (BMI) and several other physical tests were performed. Results from the BLEEP test revealed an average of level 9, shuttle 2 for the players. Interestingly, forwards were taller, heavier, and had lower maximal aerobic power than backs in the same team. In conclusion, the physical characteristics of the rugby players were much lower when compared to international players from other countries. From this pilot study, the physical performance of the Malaysian team must be improved in order to further develop the sports.Keywords: Rugby, Malaysia, Fitness, Collision sports
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 35513548 The Effect of Organizational Communications System on Interpersonal Conflict in Physical Education Offices of Isfahan Province, IRAN
Authors: H. Eshraghi., L. Salehi.
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The purpose of this study was to survey the effect of organizational communication system on the conflict in physical education offices of Isfahan province. The research methodology of this research was a descriptive study. All employees working in physical education offices of Isfahan province were included in the sample for this study (N= 236). Researcher made questionnaire and demographic questionnaire were used as investigation instruments. Based on the result of chi square test, there is significant difference between organizational communication system and interpersonal conflict. The most of participants evaluate communication in an informal way and pointed out that the communication channels were not open. Based on the result of binomial test, interpersonal conflict exists in physical education offices of Isfahan.Keywords: Communication, Employees, Interpersonal conflict.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14423547 Authentication of Physical Objects with Dot-Based 2D Code
Authors: Michał Glet, Kamil Kaczyński
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Counterfeit goods and documents are a global problem, which needs more and more sophisticated methods of resolving it. Existing techniques using watermarking or embedding symbols on objects are not suitable for all use cases. To address those special needs, we created complete system allowing authentication of paper documents and physical objects with flat surface. Objects are marked using orientation independent and resistant to camera noise 2D graphic codes, named DotAuth. Based on the identifier stored in 2D code, the system is able to perform basic authentication and allows to conduct more sophisticated analysis methods, e.g., relying on augmented reality and physical properties of the object. In this paper, we present the complete architecture, algorithms and applications of the proposed system. Results of the features comparison of the proposed solution and other products are presented as well, pointing to the existence of many advantages that increase usability and efficiency in the means of protecting physical objects.
Keywords: Authentication, paper documents, security, anti-forgery.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6163546 Bridging the Gap between Different Interfaces for Business Process Modeling
Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov
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The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.Keywords: Business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16573545 Automatic Generation of Ontology from Data Source Directed by Meta Models
Authors: Widad Jakjoud, Mohamed Bahaj, Jamal Bakkas
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Through this paper we present a method for automatic generation of ontological model from any data source using Model Driven Architecture (MDA), this generation is dedicated to the cooperation of the knowledge engineering and software engineering. Indeed, reverse engineering of a data source generates a software model (schema of data) that will undergo transformations to generate the ontological model. This method uses the meta-models to validate software and ontological models.
Keywords: Meta model, model, ontology, data source.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19833544 Validation of Contemporary Physical Activity Tracking Technologies through Exercise in a Controlled Environment
Authors: Reem I. Altamimi, Geoff D. Skinner
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Extended periods engaged in sedentary behavior increases the risk of becoming overweight and/or obese which is linked to other health problems. Adding technology to the term ‘active living’ permits its inclusion in promoting and facilitating habitual physical activity. Technology can either act as a barrier to, or facilitate this lifestyle, depending on the chosen technology. Physical Activity Monitoring Technologies (PAMTs) are a popular example of such technologies. Different contemporary PAMTs have been evaluated based on customer reviews; however, there is a lack of published experimental research into the efficacy of PAMTs. This research aims to investigate the reliability of four PAMTs: two wristbands (Fitbit Flex and Jawbone UP), a waist-clip (Fitbit One), and a mobile application (iPhone Health Application) for recording a specific distance walked on a treadmill (1.5km) at constant speed. Physical activity tracking technologies are varied in their recordings, even while performing the same activity. This research demonstrates that Jawbone UP band recorded the most accurate distance compared to Fitbit One, Fitbit Flex, and iPhone Health Application.Keywords: Fitbit, Jawbone UP, mobile tracking applications, physical activity tracking technologies.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15083543 Simulation of Snow Covers Area by a Physical based Model
Authors: Hossein Zeinivand, Florimond De Smedt
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Snow cover is an important phenomenon in hydrology, hence modeling the snow accumulation and melting is an important issue in places where snowmelt significantly contributes to runoff and has significant effect on water balance. The physics-based models are invariably distributed, with the basin disaggregated into zones or grid cells. Satellites images provide valuable data to verify the accuracy of spatially distributed model outputs. In this study a spatially distributed physically based model (WetSpa) was applied to predict snow cover and melting in the Latyan dam watershed in Iran. Snowmelt is simulated based on an energy balance approach. The model is applied and calibrated with one year of observed daily precipitation, air temperature, windspeed, and daily potential evaporation. The predicted snow-covered area is compared with remotely sensed images (MODIS). The results show that simulated snow cover area SCA has a good agreement with satellite image snow cover area SCA from MODIS images. The model performance is also tested by statistical and graphical comparison of simulated and measured discharges entering the Latyan dam reservoir.Keywords: Physical based model, Satellite image, Snow covers.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18473542 Neuro-fuzzy Model and Regression Model a Comparison Study of MRR in Electrical Discharge Machining of D2 Tool Steel
Authors: M. K. Pradhan, C. K. Biswas,
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In the current research, neuro-fuzzy model and regression model was developed to predict Material Removal Rate in Electrical Discharge Machining process for AISI D2 tool steel with copper electrode. Extensive experiments were conducted with various levels of discharge current, pulse duration and duty cycle. The experimental data are split into two sets, one for training and the other for validation of the model. The training data were used to develop the above models and the test data, which was not used earlier to develop these models were used for validation the models. Subsequently, the models are compared. It was found that the predicted and experimental results were in good agreement and the coefficients of correlation were found to be 0.999 and 0.974 for neuro fuzzy and regression model respectively
Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, material removal rate, neuro-fuzzy model, regression model, mountain clustering.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13763541 Evaluation of the Effect of Nursing Services Provided in a Correctional Institution on the Physical Health Levels and Health Behaviors of Female Inmates
Authors: Şenay Pehli̇van, Gülümser Kublay
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Female inmates placed in a Correctional Institution (CI) have more physical health problems than other women and their male counterparts. Thus, they require more health care services in the CI and nursing services in particular. CI nurses also have the opportunity to teach behaviors which will protect and improve their health to these women who are difficult to reach in the community. The aim of this study was to evaluate effect of nursing services provided in a CI on the physical health levels and health behaviors of female inmates. The study has a quasi-experimental design. The study was done in Female Closed CI in Ankara, Turkey. The study was conducted on 30 female inmates. Before the implementation of nursing interventions in the initial phase of the study, female inmates were evaluated in terms of physical health problems and health behavior using forms, a physical examination, medical history, health files (file containing medical information related to prisons) and the Omaha System (OS). Findings obtained from evaluations were grouped and symptoms-findings were expressed with OS diagnosis codes. Knowledge, behavior and status scores of prisoners in relation to health problems were determined. After the implementation of the nursing interventions, female inmates were evaluated in terms of physical health problems and health behavior using OS. The research data were collected using the Female Evaluation Form developed by the researcher and the OS. It was found that knowledge, behavior and status scores of prisoners significantly increased after the implementation of nursing interventions (p < 0.05).
Keywords: Correctional institution, correctional nursing, prison nursing, female inmates, physical health problems, health behaviors.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14453540 Empirical Roughness Progression Models of Heavy Duty Rural Pavements
Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed
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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.
Keywords: Roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7893539 Experimental Study of Frequency Behavior for a Circular Cylinder behind an Airfoil
Authors: S. Bajalan, A. Shadaram, N. Hedayat, A. Shams Taleghani
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The interaction between wakes of bluff body and airfoil have profound influences on system performance in many industrial applications, e.g., turbo-machinery and cooling fan. The present work investigates the effect of configuration include; airfoil-s angle of attack, transverse and inline spacing of the models, on frequency behavior of the cylinder-s near-wake. The experiments carried on under subcritical flow regime, using the hot-wire anemometry (HWA). The relationship between the Strouhal numbers and arrangements provide an insight into the global physical processes of wake interaction and vortex shedding.Keywords: Airfoil, Cylinder, Strouhal, Wake interaction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17983538 Hardware Description Language Design of Σ-Δ Fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop for Wireless Applications
Authors: Ahmed El Oualkadi, Abdellah Ait Ouahman
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This paper discusses a systematic design of a Σ-Δ fractional-N Phase-Locked Loop based on HDL behavioral modeling. The proposed design consists in describing the mixed behavior of this PLL architecture starting from the specifications of each building block. The HDL models of critical PLL blocks have been described in VHDL-AMS to predict the different specifications of the PLL. The effect of different noise sources has been efficiently introduced to study the PLL system performances. The obtained results are compared with transistor-level simulations to validate the effectiveness of the proposed models for wireless applications in the frequency range around 2.45 GHz.
Keywords: Phase-locked loop, frequency synthesizer, fractional-N PLL, Σ-Δ modulator, HDL models
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 37693537 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model
Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus
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One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.
Keywords: Wind power, Uncertainty, Stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 39123536 Study of a BVAR(p) Process Applied to U.S. Commodity Market Data
Authors: Jan Sindelar
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The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.
Keywords: Vector auto-regression, forecasting, financial, Bayesian, efficient markets.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11843535 Effect of Turbulence Models on Simulated Iced Aircraft Airfoil
Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming
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The present work describes a computational study of aerodynamic characteristics of GLC305 airfoil clean and with 16.7 min ice shape (rime 212) and 22.5 min ice shape (glaze 944).The performance of turbulence models SA, Kε, Kω Std, and Kω SST model are observed against experimental flow fields at different Mach numbers 0.12, 0.21, 0.28 in a range of Reynolds numbers 3x106, 6x106, and 10.5x106 on clean and iced aircraft airfoil GLC305. Numerical predictions include lift, drag and pitching moment coefficients at different Mach numbers and at different angle of attacks were done. Accuracy of solutions with respect to the effects of turbulence models, variation of Mach number, initial conditions, grid resolution and grid spacing near the wall made the study much sensitive. Navier Stokes equation based computational technique is used. Results are very close to the experimental results. It has seen that SA and SST models are more efficient than Kε and Kω standard in under study problem.Keywords: Aerodynamics, Airfoil GLC305, Iced Airfoil, Turbulence Model
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24593534 Proposal of Additional Fuzzy Membership Functions in Smoothing Transition Autoregressive Models
Authors: Ε. Giovanis
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In this paper we present, propose and examine additional membership functions for the Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. More specifically, we present the tangent hyperbolic, Gaussian and Generalized bell functions. Because Smoothing Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models follow fuzzy logic approach, more fuzzy membership functions should be tested. Furthermore, fuzzy rules can be incorporated or other training or computational methods can be applied as the error backpropagation or genetic algorithm instead to nonlinear squares. We examine two macroeconomic variables of US economy, the inflation rate and the 6-monthly treasury bills interest rates.Keywords: Forecast , Fuzzy membership functions, Smoothingtransition, Time-series
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15143533 Finite Element Analysis of Sheet Metal Airbending Using Hyperform LS-DYNA
Authors: Himanshu V. Gajjar, Anish H. Gandhi, Harit K. Raval
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Air bending is one of the important metal forming processes, because of its simplicity and large field application. Accuracy of analytical and empirical models reported for the analysis of bending processes is governed by simplifying assumption and do not consider the effect of dynamic parameters. Number of researches is reported on the finite element analysis (FEA) of V-bending, Ubending, and air V-bending processes. FEA of bending is found to be very sensitive to many physical and numerical parameters. FE models must be computationally efficient for practical use. Reported work shows the 3D FEA of air bending process using Hyperform LSDYNA and its comparison with, published 3D FEA results of air bending in Ansys LS-DYNA and experimental results. Observing the planer symmetry and based on the assumption of plane strain condition, air bending problem was modeled in 2D with symmetric boundary condition in width. Stress-strain results of 2D FEA were compared with 3D FEA results and experiments. Simplification of air bending problem from 3D to 2D resulted into tremendous reduction in the solution time with only marginal effect on stressstrain results. FE model simplification by studying the problem symmetry is more efficient and practical approach for solution of more complex large dimensions slow forming processes.Keywords: Air V-bending, Finite element analysis, HyperformLS-DYNA, Planner symmetry.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32003532 Improvement of Model for SIMMER Code for SFR Corium Relocation Studies
Authors: A. Bachrata, N. Marie, F. Bertrand, J. B. Droin
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The in-depth understanding of severe accident propagation in Generation IV of nuclear reactors is important so that appropriate risk management can be undertaken early in their design process. This paper is focused on model improvements in the SIMMER code in order to perform studies of severe accident mitigation of Sodium Fast Reactor. During the design process of the mitigation devices dedicated to extraction of molten fuel from the core region, the molten fuel propagation from the core up to the core catcher has to be studied. In this aim, analytical as well as the complex thermohydraulic simulations with SIMMER-III code are performed. The studies presented in this paper focus on physical phenomena and associated physical models that influence the corium relocation. Firstly, the molten pool heat exchange with surrounding structures is analyzed since it influences directly the instant of rupture of the dedicated tubes favoring the corium relocation for mitigation purpose. After the corium penetration into mitigation tubes, the fuel-coolant interactions result in formation of debris bed. Analyses of debris bed fluidization as well as sinking into a fluid are presented in this paper.
Keywords: Corium, mitigation tubes, SIMMER-III, sodium fast reactor (SFR).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28613531 An Estimation of Variance Components in Linear Mixed Model
Authors: Shuimiao Wan, Chao Yuan, Baoguang Tian
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In this paper, a linear mixed model which has two random effects is broken up into two models. This thesis gets the parameter estimation of the original model and an estimation’s statistical qualities based on these two models. Then many important properties are given by comparing this estimation with other general estimations. At the same time, this paper proves the analysis of variance estimate (ANOVAE) about σ2 of the original model is equal to the least-squares estimation (LSE) about σ2 of these two models. Finally, it also proves that this estimation is better than ANOVAE under Stein function and special condition in some degree.Keywords: Linear mixed model, Random effects, Parameter estimation, Stein function.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18073530 Receive and Transmit Array Antenna Spacingand Their Effect on the Performance of SIMO and MIMO Systems by using an RCS Channel Model
Authors: N. Ebrahimi-Tofighi, M. ArdebiliPour, M. Shahabadi
Abstract:
In this paper, the effect of receive and/or transmit antenna spacing on the performance (BER vs. SNR) of multipleantenna systems is determined by using an RCS (Radar Cross Section) channel model. In this physical model, the scatterers existing in the propagation environment are modeled by their RCS so that the correlation of the receive signal complex amplitudes, i.e., both magnitude and phase, can be estimated. The proposed RCS channel model is then compared with classical models.Keywords: MIMO system, Performance of system, Signalcorrelation, SIMO system, Wireless channel model.
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